2016 Previews and Predictions

[Merkin]

[scumdevils86]

Week 1 Coaches Poll Rankings of our schedule

BYU - 42nd
Grambling St - NR
Hawaii - NR
UW - 18th
@ UCLA - 24th
@ Utah - 28th
USC - 17th
Stanford - 7th
@ Washington St - 30th
Colorado - NR
@ Oregon St - NR
ASU - NR

That 6 game stretch in the middle of the season is brutal.

[ASUHATER!]

we want to be guaranteed a bowl we have to go 5-1 in the first 3 and last 3 games.

[scumdevils86]

More from CFN

Sept. 3 vs. BYU (in Glendale)

It’s the start of the brutal start to the BYU schedule, and this could be the easiest game of the early lot. Can the Wildcats’ defense hold up against the Cougars’ offensive storm? No, but Arizona’s offense will pick up the slack. Get used to this as a theme for the season.

Preseason Prediction: Arizona 38, BYU 34

Sept. 10 vs. Grambling State

The Cats get a few tune-up games before dealing with the Pac-12 schedule. They need to do as much as possible over the next two weeks to get the depth in place on defense.

Preseason Prediction: Arizona 52, Grambling State 13

Sept. 17 vs. Hawaii

The Warriors will try winging it around the yard, but their defense won’t have a prayer of coming up with stops as the Wildcats roll up and down the field at will.

Preseason Prediction: Arizona 47, Hawaii 20

Sept. 24 vs. Washington

Arizona’s offense will finally have to deal with a killer defensive performance. Washington’s defensive front will put the clamps down early, while its offense will get out to a big early lead. The game will be over in the third quarter.

Preseason Prediction: Washington 38, Arizona 21

Oct. 1 at UCLA

Call this the make-or-break moment for Arizona’s season. Win this, and the Washington loss doesn’t really matter and the South chase is on. Instead, Josh Rosen will fire at will to answer every Wildcat scoring drive.

Preseason Prediction: UCLA 34, Arizona 24

Oct. 8 at Utah

The Wildcats will have to deal with the flash of UCLA the week before, and they won’t be able to handle the power of the Utah game that keeps Arizona’s offense off the field. It’ll take a little while, but the Cats will wear down in an entertaining battle.

Preseason Prediction: Utah 27, Arizona 23

Oct. 15 vs. USC

Sitting at 0-3 to start the Pac-12 season, everything will seem like it’s slipping away – and then the offense will click. USC’s defensive front seven will come up with a few early stops, but won’t figure out how to handle the curveball in the second half.

Preseason Prediction: Arizona 34, USC 27

Oct. 29 vs. Stanford

Stanford will be rolling with three straight wins in the Pac-12, but with a week off to prepare, Arizona will look and play like the far fresher team. For the second straight conference game, Arizona’s offense will be terrific. The Cardinal have the linebackers, but the Wildcats’ running game will still be effective.

Preseason Prediction: Arizona 37, Stanford 27

Nov. 5 at Washington State

Wrong team, wrong matchup, wrong game. Washington State will be desperate after going on a big losing streak, and the offense will blow up at just the right time to outgun the Wildcats.

Preseason Prediction: Washington State 36, Arizona 30

Nov. 12 vs. Colorado

The Wildcats will get the job done at home after a rocky first half. The Buffs will bomb away with a huge performance from the passing game, but Arizona should be able to answer all the dangerous moments with scoring drives.

Preseason Prediction: Arizona 30, Colorado 23

Nov. 19 at Oregon State

Arizona will be way overdue for a clunker, and this will be it. It’ll be the last home game of the year for Oregon State, and it’ll show with a great performance from a defense that does everything right. The Beavers will be looking for something positive, and the win will be one of the season’s best highlights.

Preseason Prediction: Oregon State 37, Arizona 14

Nov. 25 vs. Arizona State

The Pac-12 North title hopes would be dashed the week before, and bowl eligibility will already be sealed, but beating Arizona State would make the season a plus. It’ll be yet another great Sun Devil-Wildcat shootout, but after losing 52-37 last year, Arizona will be on the right side of the fun.

Preseason Prediction: Arizona 47, Arizona State 42

2016 Prediction: 7-5
2016 Pac-12 Prediction: 4-5

[azgreg]

Beat USC and Stanford while losing to Washington State and Oregon State? OK.

[Merkin]

How many times has RichRod beat UCLA, USC and ASU combined?

Twice?

Love RR, but he can't beat the good teams and the rivalry teams, outside of those playing a similar offense such as Oregon.

0-6 at UM v. MSU and tOSU.

[Merkin]

ESPN PAC Power Rankings out.


http://www.espn.com/blog/pac12/post/_/i ... r-rankings" target="_blank

8. Arizona (7-6)

We’ll finally see the mystery defense unveiled when the Wildcats take on BYU in the season opener. How that defense looks -- and the health of its offensive backfield -- will likely be the story of Arizona’s 2016. If they can play somewhat efficient defense and get the most out of quarterback Anu Solomon (who has an underrated corps to throw to) and running back Nick Wilson, there’s no reason why Arizona can’t quickly climb these rankings.

[ASUHATER!]

that's about as nice of a 2 sentence summation of us as there is this season. if we can simply have a slightly improved defense and an offense that stays healthy, we could actually be a 9-3 type team that at least for a week or two flirts with the south title. if the defense is just as bad and we have everyone not stay healthy again...with that middle 6 game stretch we could be a 4-5 win team.

[azpenguin]

that's about as nice of a 2 sentence summation of us as there is this season. if we can simply have a slightly improved defense and an offense that stays healthy, we could actually be a 9-3 type team that at least for a week or two flirts with the south title. if the defense is just as bad and we have everyone not stay healthy again...with that middle 6 game stretch we could be a 4-5 win team.

9-3 team would likely definitely flirt with a South title. USC is USC, but they've got a new head coach, a new QB, and they're probably going to end up dropping a couple that they should have won; just part of the growing pains. ASU has the deck stacked against them this year and Graham is likely coaching for his job. Utah - I'm not buying the hype right now. Their defense should be stout but I'm not sure they can move the ball. Arizona has more of a shot than some think, it's just a matter of whether or not they can cash it in. That's gonna start first and foremost with the defense, the great unknown.

[ASUHATER!]

that's about as nice of a 2 sentence summation of us as there is this season. if we can simply have a slightly improved defense and an offense that stays healthy, we could actually be a 9-3 type team that at least for a week or two flirts with the south title. if the defense is just as bad and we have everyone not stay healthy again...with that middle 6 game stretch we could be a 4-5 win team.

9-3 team would likely definitely flirt with a South title. USC is USC, but they've got a new head coach, a new QB, and they're probably going to end up dropping a couple that they should have won; just part of the growing pains. ASU has the deck stacked against them this year and Graham is likely coaching for his job. Utah - I'm not buying the hype right now. Their defense should be stout but I'm not sure they can move the ball. Arizona has more of a shot than some think, it's just a matter of whether or not they can cash it in. That's gonna start first and foremost with the defense, the great unknown.

yeah i can see usc losing 3-4 games for sure. asu has to play @usc, @oregon, @washington, @arizona and @utsa with home games against texas tech, ucla and utah. best case for asu considering what they lost is probably like 8-4/9-3. overall i think we'll be in the 7-5 or 8-4 range and asu will be like 6-6

[Merkin]

Haha ASU!

[Scummy Dick Douglas]

that's about as nice of a 2 sentence summation of us as there is this season. if we can simply have a slightly improved defense and an offense that stays healthy, we could actually be a 9-3 type team that at least for a week or two flirts with the south title. if the defense is just as bad and we have everyone not stay healthy again...with that middle 6 game stretch we could be a 4-5 win team.

9-3 team would likely definitely flirt with a South title. USC is USC, but they've got a new head coach, a new QB, and they're probably going to end up dropping a couple that they should have won; just part of the growing pains. ASU has the deck stacked against them this year and Graham is likely coaching for his job. Utah - I'm not buying the hype right now. Their defense should be stout but I'm not sure they can move the ball. Arizona has more of a shot than some think, it's just a matter of whether or not they can cash it in. That's gonna start first and foremost with the defense, the great unknown.

What makes you think Graham is on the hot seat?

[ASUHATER!]

Going 6-7 last year when pretty much the entire team and fan base was screaming national title or bust from the rooftops a year ago?

[azgreg]

I still don't think he's on the hot seat. However, a mediocre season this year and............................

[ASUHATER!]

I still don't think he's on the hot seat. However, a mediocre season this year and............................

Which is what they are in store for. They win 6 games or less and he'll have to win 8-9+ in 2017 to keep his job.

[Scummy Dick Douglas]

His tenure will be judged by the '17 and '18 seasons. Those solid '14 and '15 classes will be upperclassmen and a QB would, in theory, be established. This year is largely irrelevant. 9 wins should expected in '17 regardless. He had two 10 win seasons in a row prior to last years letdown.

I get that its a rivalry so objectivity isn't expected in these conversations, but its going to take at least 3 concurrent years of bad play for Graham to be forced out, and even then I am not sure. He has had an enormous impact on the the entire athletic department. Its arguable that the stadium renovation, new football facility, and much of the spending on other sports doesn't happen without him at ASU. ASU football was in a very, very bad place when Erickson was fired.

[azcat49]

I don't think many of us think he is truly on the hot seat. I work within a stones throw of SD stadium and I work with several pretty big boosters (that's what they say) and he has a lot of cred (CTG).

They were not happy last year nor were they happy about being sold by CTG a bag a magic beans last year but he has done well enough to earn a few more years according to them.

I think both teams are very similar and while we have an experienced QB to get us a few wins, you guys have had much better overall recruiting classed that should at some point pan out

[azpenguin]

I don't have any inside info so I'm as much "random guy on the Internet" as far as this is concerned. What I'm seeing is a few things. One, that the AD publicly told Graham to stop talking so much. Next, they had a disappointing season last year, and they're struggling to get fans to the games. Then there's ASU's recent history. They fired Koetter after some decent but not great seasons, then they fired Erickson after a couple of middling seasons. Both times the general vibe was "we can do better than this." Lastly, these things can be fickle. A coach who isn't really on the hot seat can find himself there in a hurry. Suppose they get smoked by UCLA and Utah at home, and they're going into Tucson at 5-6, and lose by a couple of touchdowns. (Tomey in 2000 was looking like the Pac-10 coach of the year halfway twhrough 2000. He was fired six games later. Stoops had people talking about AZ as a darkhorse national title contender eight games into 2010. He was fired halfway through the next year. These things can turn really quickly.)

(For balance... On the other side of the rivalry, RR's not on the hot seat this year. If he has a clunker of a season, though, he will be next year. He got dealt a pretty tough hand last year with the schedule and the injuries, and he made changes to the coaching staff where it was needed. There's some good faith built up, but now's the time to repay it.)

[Carcassdragger]

Big fan of RR here and just another random guy on the internet post. Agree with you on all your points. But, going forward, RR's flirting with other jobs seemed to have a negative impact on last year's recruiting class and certainly left a bit of a bad taste in some folks mouths.

Hoping a solid recommitment to our program here (as we've committed to him), and the staff changes, will keep this group of recruits committed and lead to better things here.

[FightWildcatsFight]

Wilner REALLY doesn't like ASu this year.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespo ... source=rss" target="_blank

[ASUHATER!]

I can see it. Brand new qb, new one line, probably bad secondary, schedule where they play @Utah, @UCLA, @Oregon, @Washington, @Arizona....

[azgreg]

Never too early for bowl projections.

http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/pre ... rojections" target="_blank

1. Rose Bowl vs. Big Ten

Oregon vs. Michigan State

2. Valero Alamo Bowl vs. Big 12

USC vs. TCU

3. National University Holiday Bowl vs. Big Ten

UCLA vs. Iowa

4. Foster Farms Bowl vs. Big Ten

Washington vs. Minnesota

5. Hyundai Sun Bowl vs. ACC

Arizona State vs. Clemson

6. Las Vegas Bowl vs. Mountain West

Stanford vs. San Diego State

7. Motel 6 Cactus Bowl vs. Big 12

Utah vs. West Virginia

Arizona is predicted to be eligible, but without a bowl home.

[Newportcat]

New Mexico Bowl here we come to defend our title!

[ASUHATER!]

Espn pac 12 blog preview. Pick us to go anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3 with an official prediction of 6-6.

With the 2016 season just around the corner, we begin our team previews with Arizona.

2015 record: 7-6, 3-6 (Pac-12)

2016 FPI preseason rank: 37

2016 FPI win projection: 7.2 - 4.9

Key losses: LB Scooby Wright, WR Cayleb Jones, C Cayman Bundage, DE Reggie Gilbert, DB Will Parks

Key returnees: QB Anu Solomon, RB Nick Wilson, LB Paul Magloire, WR Nate Phillips

Most important player: While Solomon is still officially locked in a QB competition with Brandon Dawkins, the Wildcats' possibilities open up greatly if Solomon can stay healthy and consistently play at the high levels he achieved his first two years as a starter. And if he doesn't hold onto his job, then insert Dawkins into this space.

Impact newcomer: Redshirt freshman Nathan Eldridge looks primed to take over at center, always a critical position but even more critical in Rich Rodriguez's up-tempo, shotgun offense.

Breakout player: While a healthy Wilson will be critical for the Wildcats' offense, sophomore Orlando Bradford, a 5-foot-9, 208-pound fire plug of a running back out of Louisiana, will give the running game a physical punch.

Position unit of strength: While losing three of your top-four receivers from the previous season sounds bad, the Wildcats were deep at receiver in 2015 and should also be this year. Nate Phillips, Samajie Grant and Trey Griffey combined for 86 receptions and seven TDs last year and the young depth behind them is promising.

Position unit of weakness: Bad luck, middling recruiting and injuries have left the Wildcats with a dearth of defensive linemen, a crew that will include more than one present or former walk-on in the rotation. New defensive coordinator Marcel Yates will need to be creative with his scheme in order to cover up for a lack of size and athletic ability.

Biggest remaining question mark: Other than whether Solomon retains his job? Well, that would be how Yates lines up his defense. He ran a base nickel at Boise State, which isn't much different from the 3-3-5 the Wildcats ran with former coordinator Jeff Casteel. Count on Yates using plenty of stunts, movement and disguises to make up for questionable personnel.

Most important game: Against Arizona State on Nov. 25. While it might feel like a cop-out to pick a rivalry game, this game almost certainly will have major bowl ramifications for both teams. It might even determine which team becomes bowl eligible as both are picked in the bottom half of the South Division. Moreover, the Territorial Cup is in Tucson and Rich Rodriguez is 1-3 against his good buddy Todd Graham.

Key stat: The Wildcats were minus-4 in turnover margin last year, tied for last in the Pac-12 with woeful Oregon State, one of just three conference teams with a negative ratio. They forced just 16 turnovers, third fewest in the conference, and gave away the ball 20 times, fifth most. For Arizona to improve, these numbers must improve -- reversing might be good.

Upset watch: Arizona opens the season in University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., against BYU, a team that tends to be fairly rugged at the line of scrimmage, an Arizona question. The Cougars will be a bit of a mystery with new coach Kalani Sitake. The Wildcats, who have played a pastry-soft nonconference schedule of late, can't afford to lose an opener when the conference schedule looks so unforgiving.

Best case scenario in 2016: With seven home games and just four road dates, the Wildcats' best bet to exceeding expectations is holding serve in front of the home crowd and stealing an upset on the road. If things all go the Wildcats' way, this team could peak at nine wins, which could put them in the South race.

Worst case scenario in 2016: The only sure win on the schedule is a Week 2 visit from Grambling, though the Wildcats should also be able to handle Hawaii and will be significant road favorites at Oregon State. Yet with Colorado improving, every other game figures to be a battle for four quarters. If QB play remains questionable and an already-thin lineup is challenged by injuries, the Wildcats could tumble to 4-8 in Rodriguez's fifth season.

Prediction: 6-6. Rodriguez has long been the sort of coach who gets more from less, and this season should follow that tendency. The key to moving up in the South going forward, as Rodriguez himself says, is improved recruiting. He needs more A-list players because everyone else has them.

[ANGCatFan]

Javier Morales, as he often does, takes a different approach to looking at the year. How have Arizona coaches done in their fifth year? All Coach Rod has to do is beat Mike Stoops record and he becomes the winning fifth year coach for Arizona in the modern era.

[FightWildcatsFight]

http://www.bcftoys.com/2016-game-projections#arizona" target="_blank

Based on this website's "FEI" matrix, Arizona is projected to win 4 games this season, with wins against Hawaii, Colorado, Oregon State, and ASu.

ASu is only projected to win 3 games, 2 of which are against OOC opponents.

The projections are updated weekly.

[Merkin]

That's a brutal 6 game stretch with the best chance for a UA win is only 27%.

[azcat49]

Guess they are only counting D1 schools as Grambling should give them 5. I do find it interesting that Vegas has more confidence in the cats then most computers or formulas or those that use their gut

[Merkin]

I'm not a bettor, but believe Vegas gives odds based on getting equal betting on both sides, not on actually how well they will perform, smart money aside.

[azcat49]

Well if that equal action over/under set at 6.5 like I believe I saw, it's better than most of these other prognosticators are giving us win wise