2016-2017 Arizona Basketball

EVCat · Post by **EVCat** » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:50 am

dcZONAfan wrote:
NYCat wrote:Other possible bad matchups this year are teams like West Virginia, Louisville, Florida, Baylor, Wisconsin (yeah), Purdue, UK, UVA, Nova (some of these could lose early). Wichita State last year was bad matchup.

#1 priority is improving the defense.
Why, again, is UVA a bad matchup? That's a shit offense. What does Wisconsin do that scares you, besides have the name Wisconsin on their chest? I'd certainly take a matchup with them this year if, say, it was to get to the elite 8 or FF.

Totally agree. Virginia is a dream matchup to me. If you hammer them with a run, they literally cannot come back, and we have enough shooters to force them out of their hole on defense. They come down, hold the ball 25 seconds, then force something bad on offense. They have to make shots to be effective, because against our early offense, their defense means nothing. The only way they beat us is if they make a high percentage of shots (that sounds obvious) and can get into our point guards, ala Wichita St, before we get into our sets and push our offense back to 25 feet.

But Virginia, this year, is a mirage. They choke lesser teams, but do not regularly beat good teams. Lost to WVA, Villanova (OK, most do), Florida St, Pitt, Syracuse...then they fell apart completely and have lost FOUR in a row (Va Tech, UNC, Duke, Miami). At this rate, they are trying to get on the bubble. They simply do not have enough offense to be competitive. Their defense would have to be otherworldly to make up for their offensive idiocy.

Losers of 4 in a row, 6 of their last 8. They aren't playing teams they can choke then beat one on one on offense at the :05 shot clock.

Wisconsin? I would love to play them again. They are a shell of their former self. This is the type of Wisconsin team we ran by nearly 40 with an average team in the tournament during the interim days.

Nova is a bad matchup for everyone. They are the only elite team in this mix.

baconus66 · Post by **baconus66** » Wed Feb 22, 2017 1:32 pm

The only way we lose to Oregon in the finals and stay in the West is if they are given a 1 and are shipped elsewhere and I don't see us beating Oregon. Just not a good matchup. I think best case scenario is facing UCLA in the finals and beating them a third time.

Unrelated, I really don't want to play WVU, we have done really poorly against inbounding pressure all season against teams that aren't great at it. If we play them it could go bad, especially with only a day to prepare

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:09 pm

This team is really amazing and resilient.....I know that this has been stated numerous times but if you had told me all the injuries and setbacks that this team would face and yet be 25-3, 1st place in the P12, and rated #4 at this point in the season...I probably wouldn't have believed it.

Undoubtedly an amazing effort by the team and coaching staff so far. Thank God for CSM! BTFD and let's sweep the LA schools this week.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:22 pm

TheGreatCatsby · Post by **TheGreatCatsby** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:48 am

Cal should have won that game last nite, up 16 with about 10 to play. Bill Walton wasn't minding the game at all and was talking about Kevin Durant and the NBA the whole time....then Dillon Brooks and "Bobby" Boucher turned into superheroes and won in the end. Cal win pretty much woulda locked up our PAC12 title.

baconus66 · Post by **baconus66** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:36 am

I'm really excited for this weekend's games for lots of reasons.

I have been in the Zonazoo for 9 years now (long story, but a late game major change into a 5 year program, zero regrets) and been to almost every basketball game in that period (maybe 10-15 missed home games). My college career started with Lute's official retirement and the Pennell year, then the hiring of Sean Miller and the ups and downs since then. I've seen so many great games in that time (too many to name but the face stomp, the block, and nic's senior night are some that standout in my mind) and a few rough ones (One word: Jimmer).

I will be graduating in May (yes, finally) and moving to MN. To end it on the biggest home stand of the season, with conference championship and tournament implications would be good enough. Add in the first match up of 2 top 5 teams at home since I've been here (closest was Florida I think), against UCLA, on Senior night and it's going to be really amazing. I hope the team can end it on a strong note for me, to put a bow on a great regular season and to start off a deep post season run. Something tells me I will get a little teary eyed for the Senior ceremonies. It sure has been one hell of a ride.

Bear Down

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:52 am

baconus66 wrote:I'm really excited for this weekend's games for lots of reasons.

I have been in the Zonazoo for 9 years now (long story, but a late game major change into a 5 year program, zero regrets) and been to almost every basketball game in that period (maybe 10-15 missed home games). My college career started with Lute's official retirement and the Pennell year, then the hiring of Sean Miller and the ups and downs since then. I've seen so many great games in that time (too many to name but the face stomp, the block, and nic's senior night are some that standout in my mind) and a few rough ones (One word: Jimmer).

I will be graduating in May (yes, finally) and moving to MN. To end it on the biggest home stand of the season, with conference championship and tournament implications would be good enough. Add in the first match up of 2 top 5 teams at home since I've been here (closest was Florida I think), against UCLA, on Senior night and it's going to be really amazing. I hope the team can end it on a strong note for me, to put a bow on a great regular season and to start off a deep post season run. Something tells me I will get a little teary eyed for the Senior ceremonies. It sure has been one hell of a ride.

Bear Down

So what you're saying is, I can't get your UCLA tickets for $50?

Kidding aside, enjoy the games and do your part in making the McKale atmosphere what it should be for a top five team and to send Kadeem out in the way he deserves.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:12 am

baconus66 wrote:I'm really excited for this weekend's games for lots of reasons.

I have been in the Zonazoo for 9 years now (long story, but a late game major change into a 5 year program, zero regrets) and been to almost every basketball game in that period (maybe 10-15 missed home games). My college career started with Lute's official retirement and the Pennell year, then the hiring of Sean Miller and the ups and downs since then. I've seen so many great games in that time (too many to name but the face stomp, the block, and nic's senior night are some that standout in my mind) and a few rough ones (One word: Jimmer).

I will be graduating in May (yes, finally) and moving to MN. To end it on the biggest home stand of the season, with conference championship and tournament implications would be good enough. Add in the first match up of 2 top 5 teams at home since I've been here (closest was Florida I think), against UCLA, on Senior night and it's going to be really amazing. I hope the team can end it on a strong note for me, to put a bow on a great regular season and to start off a deep post season run. Something tells me I will get a little teary eyed for the Senior ceremonies. It sure has been one hell of a ride.

Bear Down

Bear Down

Lofty · Post by **Lofty** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:38 pm

gumby wrote:
PennZona20 wrote:I think it is conceivable that we win out and lose in finals of PAC tourney and get A 2 somewhere other than west. It's unlikely though. But it could be KU/Nova/zags as the expected 1 seeds. Ville or unc as south #1 and Oregon as west #2 if they win out and beat us in PAC final. We'd probably be the 2 in Midwest in that scenario. Which I'd take because I think Gonzaga is better than Ku personally. Although the crowd will be better in West for us.

I realize zags might not know what to do in a one possession game as they haven't had one in forever aka not "battle tested". But they are legit. The 3 xfers have been a Godsend and u add them to the Mountain and growing kids in that system and they are as complete as any team not named Nova.
Williams (Mizzou), Williams-Goss (UW) and Mathews (Cal - he torched us last year). All big-time athletes, not the usual scrappy Zags.

Add Karnowski and Collins -- legitimately talented bigs -- and Perkins and Melson.

I understand the frustration, but they are absolutely crushing their conferences foes. Teams like Santa Clara that we didn't blow out.

If they're undeserving, it will show up. If they don't know what to do in a big game, that will bite them, too.

Gonzaga reminds me of Arizona during the 87-88 season. Same stuff was said. Pac 10 pretty much sucked, although probably not like the WCC, of course. But it was Arizona and that's about it, no? We killed everybody; just massacres, outside of Stanford game. We were heavily, heavily doubted all year, just like Gonzaga. Got that 1 seed and nobody thought it legit. At least that's how I remember it.

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:41 pm

baconus66 wrote:I'm really excited for this weekend's games for lots of reasons.

I have been in the Zonazoo for 9 years now (long story, but a late game major change into a 5 year program, zero regrets) and been to almost every basketball game in that period (maybe 10-15 missed home games). My college career started with Lute's official retirement and the Pennell year, then the hiring of Sean Miller and the ups and downs since then. I've seen so many great games in that time (too many to name but the face stomp, the block, and nic's senior night are some that standout in my mind) and a few rough ones (One word: Jimmer).

I will be graduating in May (yes, finally) and moving to MN. To end it on the biggest home stand of the season, with conference championship and tournament implications would be good enough. Add in the first match up of 2 top 5 teams at home since I've been here (closest was Florida I think), against UCLA, on Senior night and it's going to be really amazing. I hope the team can end it on a strong note for me, to put a bow on a great regular season and to start off a deep post season run. Something tells me I will get a little teary eyed for the Senior ceremonies. It sure has been one hell of a ride.

Bear Down

Congrats kid! Hope you stay on the site after grad and move. Recruit some new
Az fans in MN.

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:13 pm

baconus66 wrote:I'm really excited for this weekend's games for lots of reasons.

I have been in the Zonazoo for 9 years now (long story, but a late game major change into a 5 year program, zero regrets) and been to almost every basketball game in that period (maybe 10-15 missed home games). My college career started with Lute's official retirement and the Pennell year, then the hiring of Sean Miller and the ups and downs since then. I've seen so many great games in that time (too many to name but the face stomp, the block, and nic's senior night are some that standout in my mind) and a few rough ones (One word: Jimmer).

I will be graduating in May (yes, finally) and moving to MN. To end it on the biggest home stand of the season, with conference championship and tournament implications would be good enough. Add in the first match up of 2 top 5 teams at home since I've been here (closest was Florida I think), against UCLA, on Senior night and it's going to be really amazing. I hope the team can end it on a strong note for me, to put a bow on a great regular season and to start off a deep post season run. Something tells me I will get a little teary eyed for the Senior ceremonies. It sure has been one hell of a ride.

Bear Down

May you be rewarded. Great fan.

EOCT · Post by **EOCT** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 1:44 pm

bacon66, good luck Man! You've been such a great fan---and I bet you'll be hanging on the tube in the future like most of us who can't get to many games.

Coach and the guys will obviously not overlook USC tonight------a dangerous team. Very athletic. Physical. Competitive. Fairly well coached.

Top backcourt in McLaughlin and DeAnthony Melton. Laughlin is a known, Melton sometimes underestimated. Quick, handles, nice shooter(.412 3pt), a couple of steals a game. Add Elijah Stewart in the back or at wing---a nice 3 pt shooter at .391 to add to McLaughlin and Melton as perimeter threats.

Strong/physical developing frontcourt. Metu(7.3 boards, .542 shooting) and a sweet blocker. Guy was a menace against us late in our first game with the Trojans.

Add in a healthy Benny Boatright(4.9 boards), and Rakocevic.

The Trojans should be motivated to improve their seeding In both Tournaments.

Bear Down!

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:21 pm

What do yins think of that starting lineup?

PJC
Allen
Trier
Comanche
Markkannen

I think Ristic is deadly coming off the bench, and the defensive liability of such a traditional center gets covered up a bit. Allen plays to his strength off the ball while still giving us Trier. Comanche will finish better than he did against teams that aren't as long and athletic against SC, but I'd be curious about starting Alkins at the 4. I'm loving PJC.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:34 pm

I dont like the fact that it means Alkins is only going to see the floor for 17 minutes a night, especially on a night where he was 5-5 and 2-2 from deep and nobody could keep their man in front of them on D. Hes been our best/most consistent wing over the last two months and the offense greatly benefits from his ability to be a spot up shooter when needed and a guy who can get buckets w his dribble and off the offensive glass. Hes also the only wing who gets us buckets without having to dominate the ball and/or stop the ball. If starting PJC means he cant get 25-28 min a game, then I think we are worse off.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:45 pm

rgdeuce wrote:I dont like the fact that it means Alkins is only going to see the floor for 17 minutes a night, especially on a night where he was 5-5 and 2-2 from deep and nobody could keep their man in front of them on D. Hes been our best/most consistent wing over the last two months and the offense greatly benefits from his ability to be a spot up shooter when needed and a guy who can get buckets w his dribble and off the offensive glass. If starting PJC means he cant get 25-28 min a game, then I think we are worse off.

I'm thinking if you start PJC, at least start Alkins at the 4 in addition to whatever minutes on the wing you can give him.

PennZona20 · Post by **PennZona20** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:53 pm

I kind of agree and disagree deuce.

I like
PJC
Allen
Alkins
Lauri
Dusan

As the starting 5 when everyone is healthy. I just don't think it will happen. Trier will probably remain starting and Allen has to start. We have to have SOMEBODY on the perimeter who can guard. And I think the offense, particularly v a zone, works way better w PJC running it. And there's a domino effect which allows Allen to do what he does on D and still have the legs to get is timely buckets when he doesn't need to run the O.

But I agree that out of Trier/Alkins/Simmons that Rawle is our best defender, and he's easily the best O rebounder of our wings, and his set shot from deep is a good shot for us. He should never get less than 24 min a game barring foul trouble.

I think tonight was more of an anomaly than anything w his minutes. Fact is we have a solid 8 man rotation and that's what u want come tourney time. 8-10 guys who can ball. And Pinder can help in a pinch as long as it's not extended period of time.

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:11 pm

We're going to need Rawle on wings like Dillon Brooks (6'6-6'8 wings), having Lauri on him was a huge mistake, he got abused. If we don't face teams with a good one or 3 G lineup teams PJC, Allen, Trier, Lauri, Chance is fine.

Josh Jackson, Jason Tatum, Luke Kennard, Justin Jackson etc would kill us like Brooks (doesn't mean they'll win).

TheGreatCatsby · Post by **TheGreatCatsby** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:42 pm

Gonna be a fun one Saturday nite! Glad to see Trier start looking more in control.

Tickets on Stubhub crazy expensive. Upper bowl tix starting at $230.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Thu Feb 23, 2017 11:54 pm

I hope you are right, but Tonight was a weird night for an anomaly when USC's game plan was run iso, bigs slip up high to leave the paint wide open, and then ball handler attacks one on one, with a player crashing just behind if the layup isnt there. Miller went small but it was much later in the game. Lauri played 35 minutes and there was quite a few times when he could have slid over to the 5 and Rawle gotten more burn at the "4".

I think some of us, myself included, have been too quick with statements about the offense flowing better with PJC running the show, and forgetting to rule out other factors. The things that kill us and lead to extended dry spells, in my opinion, is lack of ball movement(players who stop the ball) and lack of off ball movement. There are several guys who kill one or both. When we have too many on the floor at the same time, that is when we tend to struggle.

Zo dominates the ball too much at times but at least he is excellent at creating his own shot and making something out of nothing and getting to the foul line. Dusan, my opinion, is detrimental to the offense most of the time. He has some nice moves and I dont want to undersell some of the big buckets he gets us when we need them. But he gets the ball and things stop. If guys are moving off ball, he rarely gets them the ball so they can have a wide open shot. If he gets them the ball its because he took forever and let the D swarm him or adjust and its an all out panic to get rid of it. He also doesnt move well off ball and doesnt grasp, call for the ball and if it's not there or the guy doesnt get u the ball, then move. Inevitibly, that clogs the paint and keeps multiple defenders within striking distance of contesting or helping.

Kadeem has to be on the floor because of his D, but hes another ball stopper. He gets the ball on the wing with his man out of position or on their heels and it is catch, stop, let them recover, and then decide what to do. With his skill set, if he would just get the ball and go he would have so many more easy buckets and open things up as a passer. He does this running point and off ball. Kobi moves well off ball and has God-given attacking gifts, but he is the king of catch, size up, jab step, jab again, then go or pass. These zones arent air tight, nor have many defenses in general.. there are plenty of openings all game that arent taken advantage of because guys are slow and too deliberate. Catch, if the shot or the drive arent there, move the ball. Repeat. The perfect lane isnt going to magically open up as you are holding the ball at the three point line.

PennZona20 · Post by **PennZona20** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:32 am

All very solid points.

I think Dusan wasn't very good tonight . And I don't think it's fair to not take his ankle into account. His already slow feet just got slower. I think Miller tried to warn us by saying "it's only grade 1 but it's his first ever ankle injury and he needs to adjust to it".

Just because I think Dusan should start doesn't mean I think he should be too 5 in minutes. Frankly I think we should tinker w the starting lineup all the time.

Against a team like Oregon we should go :

PJC at 1
Zo at 2
Allen at 3
Rawls at 4
Lauri at 5

Against ucla it should be more traditional but I'd like chance on Welsh and Lauri on Leaf as our starting frontcourt.

If we play zags again Dusan has to start. He's our heaviest big (not saying much). We gotta run help at Karnowski next time around though.

Against UNC Dusan should start as they are huge.

Against Nova Dusan shouldn't start. They are very Oregonish.

I think Oregon and Nova are our two worst matchups.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 6:58 am

I was told prior to the Oregon game that Lauri was going to come off the bench and that was primarily due to the matchup of course, but also due to the fact he was under the weather. A couple of hours before tip Miller decided to go with his normal starting lineup for some reason. I imagine if we see Oregon again or get a Nova type matchup in the tournament we'll very likely see Penn's lineup above.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:30 am

Last night was a game I was really worried about being a trap game. With Gameday and all the hype for UCLA, it would have been easy to lose focus, and SC is a pretty decent team.

I was happy. It wasn't beautiful, especially giving up 77, but that was a game that we needed to win to lock up a 2-3 seed and we got it.

I have hope that we are starting to figure out how to have consistent offense with Trier.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:35 am

I have the same feeling spiff.

I'll reserve judgement until after ucla, but offense is starting to flow a bit better. We might be beginning to gel at just the right time for a long march to April run.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:36 am

Also AT is damn deadly when he lets the game come to him and plays within the team concept. I hope he's starting to get it. If he can do what he did last night we are cutting nets in April.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:46 am

Lauri did a much better job on Karnowsky than Dusan and Chance. He was killing Dusan w both his feet and body, he was helpless. Id be tempted to start Lauri and just tell him to focus on ball denial and not fouling, then work in Chance to rest Lauri and rotate Lauri to the 4 if they bring another big off the bench. The big concerb is Lauri taking himself out w foul trouble so youd really have to hanmer home dont foul and be proactive to keep him from getting that second one.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:48 am

I think AT is finding his groove.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:50 am

ATs offense is great and all, but we really need him to start defending. Hes been awful on that end. What he gives us on offense is almost entirely mitigated by what he gives up or causes others to give up because they have to give help.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:57 am

rgdeuce wrote:ATs offense is great and all, but we really need him to start defending. Hes been awful on that end. What he gives us on offense is almost entirely mitigated by what he gives up or causes others to give up because they have to give help.

You want offense AND defense?

You people are greedy.

Seriously though, my hope is that now he has confidence back in the offensive part of his game, the defensive part comes next (and soon)

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:09 am

rgdeuce wrote:I hope you are right, but Tonight was a weird night for an anomaly when USC's game plan was run iso, bigs slip up high to leave the paint wide open, and then ball handler attacks one on one, with a player crashing just behind if the layup isnt there. Miller went small but it was much later in the game. Lauri played 35 minutes and there was quite a few times when he could have slid over to the 5 and Rawle gotten more burn at the "4".

I think some of us, myself included, have been too quick with statements about the offense flowing better with PJC running the show, and forgetting to rule out other factors. The things that kill us and lead to extended dry spells, in my opinion, is lack of ball movement(players who stop the ball) and lack of off ball movement. There are several guys who kill one or both. When we have too many on the floor at the same time, that is when we tend to struggle.

Zo dominates the ball too much at times but at least he is excellent at creating his own shot and making something out of nothing and getting to the foul line. Dusan, my opinion, is detrimental to the offense most of the time. He has some nice moves and I dont want to undersell some of the big buckets he gets us when we need them. But he gets the ball and things stop. If guys are moving off ball, he rarely gets them the ball so they can have a wide open shot. If he gets them the ball its because he took forever and let the D swarm him or adjust and its an all out panic to get rid of it. He also doesnt move well off ball and doesnt grasp, call for the ball and if it's not there or the guy doesnt get u the ball, then move. Inevitibly, that clogs the paint and keeps multiple defenders within striking distance of contesting or helping.

Kadeem has to be on the floor because of his D, but hes another ball stopper. He gets the ball on the wing with his man out of position or on their heels and it is catch, stop, let them recover, and then decide what to do. With his skill set, if he would just get the ball and go he would have so many more easy buckets and open things up as a passer. He does this running point and off ball. Kobi moves well off ball and has God-given attacking gifts, but he is the king of catch, size up, jab step, jab again, then go or pass. These zones arent air tight, nor have many defenses in general.. there are plenty of openings all game that arent taken advantage of because guys are slow and too deliberate. Catch, if the shot or the drive arent there, move the ball. Repeat. The perfect lane isnt going to magically open up as you are holding the ball at the three point line.

That's some good stuff right there. Right on/

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:20 am

I am really encouraged by our three-point shooting. We take good ones and the percentage is solid. FT shooting is super. Just ask SC how important that is.

It's late to be changing lineups, and that does affect defense. This is an odd team, where a guy can play well all year and suddenly not start: Alkins. He handled it well last night. Solid performance. Just love his work on the O-boards and that lefty drive.

We can score 90 with Lauri scoring 11, and most of that late. When a guy goes cold or just isn't feeling it, we have answers. Love our freshmen!

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:29 am

Kenpom Update: AdjO: 21 AdjD: 31

Last year's team had a higher ranked offense, but this year's 117.5 is much better than last year's 115.7.
As far as defense goes last year we were ranked 29th (As OlsonDogg would be very happy to remind me) and their number was 94.7 to this year's 95.6 and the smaller the number the better for defense. That's a very disappointing number for defense especially with the uptick in athleticism this year's team has compared to last year's. Typically the magic number combination for the Final Four is top 20 in both unless you're UCONN of course. Defense has got to improve. I doubt that number gets better after the UCLA game of course.

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:36 am

Only 8 turnovers last night. Alkins the only guy with more than one. Getting more efficient, but have to lock things down defensively. Shooting percentages too high.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:06 am

ChooChooCat wrote:Kenpom Update: AdjO: 21 AdjD: 31

Last year's team had a higher ranked offense, but this year's 117.5 is much better than last year's 115.7.
As far as defense goes last year we were ranked 29th (As OlsonDogg would be very happy to remind me) and their number was 94.7 to this year's 95.6 and the smaller the number the better for defense. That's a very disappointing number for defense especially with the uptick in athleticism this year's team has compared to last year's. Typically the magic number combination for the Final Four is top 20 in both unless you're UCONN of course. Defense has got to improve. I doubt that number gets better after the UCLA game of course.

I agree, and I always say the same thing you're saying here, but I'm wondering if maybe there's a false correlation. Is top 20 efficiency in both categories really such an indicator, or is it more of a common byproduct of teams with 1-3 seeds? That's to say: What really gets you to a Final Four is having a higher seed, which enables more favorable match-ups. Another thing that gets you more favorable match-ups is the luck of other 1-3 seeds in your own bracket falling earlier, which is statistically rarer, and the reason why UConn's successes are an outlier. As a 1-seed and as a 2-seed, Wisconsin made back-to-back Final Fours without being in the top 20 on defense. So should we focus more on whether Arizona is top 20 in both categories for efficiency, or more on whether Arizona is winning enough games to earn as high a seed as possible? If the answer is "both", I wonder if that has more to do with how the two considerations tend to overlap, but don't have to.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:06 am

ChooChooCat wrote:Kenpom Update: AdjO: 21 AdjD: 31

Last year's team had a higher ranked offense, but this year's 117.5 is much better than last year's 115.7.
As far as defense goes last year we were ranked 29th (As OlsonDogg would be very happy to remind me) and their number was 94.7 to this year's 95.6 and the smaller the number the better for defense. That's a very disappointing number for defense especially with the uptick in athleticism this year's team has compared to last year's. Typically the magic number combination for the Final Four is top 20 in both unless you're UCONN of course. Defense has got to improve. I doubt that number gets better after the UCLA game of course.

I don't panic on AdjD just because we've faced a ton of efficient offenses. Zaga, Butler, UCLA, Oregon are all going to drive that a bit higher.

It's not ideal, but it is not panic time either.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:12 am

ChooChooCat wrote:Kenpom Update: AdjO: 21 AdjD: 31

Last year's team had a higher ranked offense, but this year's 117.5 is much better than last year's 115.7.
As far as defense goes last year we were ranked 29th (As OlsonDogg would be very happy to remind me) and their number was 94.7 to this year's 95.6 and the smaller the number the better for defense. That's a very disappointing number for defense especially with the uptick in athleticism this year's team has compared to last year's. Typically the magic number combination for the Final Four is top 20 in both unless you're UCONN of course. Defense has got to improve. I doubt that number gets better after the UCLA game of course.

Guilty as charged.

With all that said:

Nova
Zags
UNC
UK
WVU
Purdue

Those are the teams you can choose for your final four...teams with both ADjO and ADjD in the top 20.

I don't buy that argument as a predictor of the Final Four...I see it more as an trend that Final 4 teams seem to share. With that said, I could definitely see some of the teams above in Glendale, as I could also see some bounced out before the first weekend is over. I think that this year there are teams outside of the criteria that will be in Glendale, and quite possibly from the PAC 12.

prh · Post by **prh** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:20 am

Longhorned wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:Kenpom Update: AdjO: 21 AdjD: 31

Last year's team had a higher ranked offense, but this year's 117.5 is much better than last year's 115.7.
As far as defense goes last year we were ranked 29th (As OlsonDogg would be very happy to remind me) and their number was 94.7 to this year's 95.6 and the smaller the number the better for defense. That's a very disappointing number for defense especially with the uptick in athleticism this year's team has compared to last year's. Typically the magic number combination for the Final Four is top 20 in both unless you're UCONN of course. Defense has got to improve. I doubt that number gets better after the UCLA game of course.
I agree, and I always say the same thing you're saying here, but I'm wondering if maybe there's a false correlation. Is top 20 efficiency in both categories really such an indicator, or is it more of a common byproduct of teams with 1-3 seeds? That's to say: What really gets you to a Final Four is having a higher seed, which enables more favorable match-ups. Another thing that gets you more favorable match-ups is the luck of other 1-3 seeds in your own bracket falling earlier, which is statistically rarer, and the reason why UConn's successes are an outlier. As a 1-seed and as a 2-seed, Wisconsin made back-to-back Final Fours without being in the top 20 on defense. So should we focus more on whether Arizona is top 20 in both categories for efficiency, or more on whether Arizona is winning enough games to earn as high a seed as possible? If the answer is "both", I wonder if that has more to do with how the two considerations tend to overlap, but don't have to.

It's not really a false correlation, but it is more nuanced than just "be top 20." First of all, it weeds out teams like UCLA (AdjD 104) and some past Duke teams (AdjD > 100). Those are the teams that flame out and create the "luck" you mentioned. One thing that is usually overlooked is the that teams tend to improve their ranking as they progress through the tournament (whether it's because their numbers improve or losing teams drop). That is a built in help to teams in our current range that advance to the FF.

As for the numbers/rankings themselves, remember the "Adj" part of AdjD. The numbers are adjusted for opponents, and I believe we improved after the first UCLA game. If we play well on Saturday, I would expect that to repeat.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:48 am

prh wrote:
Longhorned wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:Kenpom Update: AdjO: 21 AdjD: 31

Last year's team had a higher ranked offense, but this year's 117.5 is much better than last year's 115.7.
As far as defense goes last year we were ranked 29th (As OlsonDogg would be very happy to remind me) and their number was 94.7 to this year's 95.6 and the smaller the number the better for defense. That's a very disappointing number for defense especially with the uptick in athleticism this year's team has compared to last year's. Typically the magic number combination for the Final Four is top 20 in both unless you're UCONN of course. Defense has got to improve. I doubt that number gets better after the UCLA game of course.
I agree, and I always say the same thing you're saying here, but I'm wondering if maybe there's a false correlation. Is top 20 efficiency in both categories really such an indicator, or is it more of a common byproduct of teams with 1-3 seeds? That's to say: What really gets you to a Final Four is having a higher seed, which enables more favorable match-ups. Another thing that gets you more favorable match-ups is the luck of other 1-3 seeds in your own bracket falling earlier, which is statistically rarer, and the reason why UConn's successes are an outlier. As a 1-seed and as a 2-seed, Wisconsin made back-to-back Final Fours without being in the top 20 on defense. So should we focus more on whether Arizona is top 20 in both categories for efficiency, or more on whether Arizona is winning enough games to earn as high a seed as possible? If the answer is "both", I wonder if that has more to do with how the two considerations tend to overlap, but don't have to.
It's not really a false correlation, but it is more nuanced than just "be top 20." First of all, it weeds out teams like UCLA (AdjD 104) and some past Duke teams (AdjD > 100).

Yes, exactly. UCLA will likely get a high seed but will be less likely to defeat another high seed because they're less likely outscore a team they can't limit defensively, as indicated by red flag rating on their AdjD. We can predict better success for UCLA than, say, Oklahoma State, which has similar AdjO and AdjD ratings as UCLA, but doesn't have a UCLA signature win at Kentucky (and possibly at Arizona) and overall record to earn UCLA's higher seed. But at some limit, both categories (AdjO and AdjD) become meaningful for predicting tourney success. I don't think we really know what that limit is, in spite of the frequency of pointing to 20/20. I'd suspect it could be as high as 50, along with a high seed that tends to come with a high AdjT.

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:52 am

Longhorned wrote: I agree, and I always say the same thing you're saying here, but I'm wondering if maybe there's a false correlation. Is top 20 efficiency in both categories really such an indicator, or is it more of a common byproduct of teams with 1-3 seeds? That's to say: What really gets you to a Final Four is having a higher seed, which enables more favorable match-ups. Another thing that gets you more favorable match-ups is the luck of other 1-3 seeds in your own bracket falling earlier, which is statistically rarer, and the reason why UConn's successes are an outlier. As a 1-seed and as a 2-seed, Wisconsin made back-to-back Final Fours without being in the top 20 on defense. So should we focus more on whether Arizona is top 20 in both categories for efficiency, or more on whether Arizona is winning enough games to earn as high a seed as possible? If the answer is "both", I wonder if that has more to do with how the two considerations tend to overlap, but don't have to.

To be clear, the Kenpom Top 20 in adj-d + adj-o stat is the FINAL kenpom rankings. Any team that makes a deep run will likely end up with top 20 in both. If Arizona does make a FF, it'll end up there.

Which makes sense, good efficent teams on both sides are better suited for the tournament, and they're usually top 13 teams = better seeds.

So BEFORE the tournament, you have to have at minimum top 80 offense and top 60 defense to be able to move up (think UConn, VCU etc). Plus an overall kenpom rankings in the top 25. Example: it is extremely unlikely that UCLA goes from a 100+ defense to top 20 by the end.

Although the avg Kenpom rankings (Kenpom first year was 2002) of past national champions BEFORE the tournament has been #13 in offense and #19 in defense.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:58 am

Olsondogg wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:Kenpom Update: AdjO: 21 AdjD: 31

Last year's team had a higher ranked offense, but this year's 117.5 is much better than last year's 115.7.
As far as defense goes last year we were ranked 29th (As OlsonDogg would be very happy to remind me) and their number was 94.7 to this year's 95.6 and the smaller the number the better for defense. That's a very disappointing number for defense especially with the uptick in athleticism this year's team has compared to last year's. Typically the magic number combination for the Final Four is top 20 in both unless you're UCONN of course. Defense has got to improve. I doubt that number gets better after the UCLA game of course.

Guilty as charged.

With all that said:

Nova
Zags
UNC
UK
WVU
Purdue

Those are the teams you can choose for your final four...teams with both ADjO and ADjD in the top 20.

I don't buy that argument as a predictor of the Final Four...I see it more as an trend that Final 4 teams seem to share. With that said, I could definitely see some of the teams above in Glendale, as I could also see some bounced out before the first weekend is over. I think that this year there are teams outside of the criteria that will be in Glendale, and quite possibly from the PAC 12.

That's a more than fair point. Another thing to take into consideration is that most of these teams that meet the 20/20 requirement weren't always 20/20 entering the tournament. A solid 4 games in the tournament will obviously make their numbers rise in Pomeroy's system and many teams bordering that 20/20 like us now end up jumping into it by season's end. I agree it's not the tell all be all as there are numerous outliers (Cuse last year for one), but it is a good barometer of a team's chances of cutting down the nets.

Either way let's improve that defense!

Edit: I didn't read the posts after this one before I responded and of course I ended up echoing their well put sentiments.

qwertyus · Post by **qwertyus** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:05 am

baconus66 wrote:I'm really excited for this weekend's games for lots of reasons.

I have been in the Zonazoo for 9 years now (long story, but a late game major change into a 5 year program, zero regrets) and been to almost every basketball game in that period (maybe 10-15 missed home games). My college career started with Lute's official retirement and the Pennell year, then the hiring of Sean Miller and the ups and downs since then. I've seen so many great games in that time (too many to name but the face stomp, the block, and nic's senior night are some that standout in my mind) and a few rough ones (One word: Jimmer).

I will be graduating in May (yes, finally) and moving to MN. To end it on the biggest home stand of the season, with conference championship and tournament implications would be good enough. Add in the first match up of 2 top 5 teams at home since I've been here (closest was Florida I think), against UCLA, on Senior night and it's going to be really amazing. I hope the team can end it on a strong note for me, to put a bow on a great regular season and to start off a deep post season run. Something tells me I will get a little teary eyed for the Senior ceremonies. It sure has been one hell of a ride.

Bear Down

Congrats guy. Better late than never I (and a lot of other people) always say. I knew a guy Freshman year who flunked a bunch of classes and ended up transferring out to Western New Mexico University. Eew. Thank goodness you found your calling in Arizona!

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:25 am

Lots of smart basketball people in this thread! One more reason why I love this site and you all!

Great discussion, thanks.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:47 am

Alieberman wrote:
rgdeuce wrote:ATs offense is great and all, but we really need him to start defending. Hes been awful on that end. What he gives us on offense is almost entirely mitigated by what he gives up or causes others to give up because they have to give help.

You want offense AND defense?

You people are greedy.

Seriously though, my hope is that now he has confidence back in the offensive part of his game, the defensive part comes next (and soon)

Just asking for adequacy. He is defending as bad as first half of freshman year Trier. I thought he was actually fairly solid in the second half of last year, and that is all I am asking for.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:06 pm

gumby wrote:I am really encouraged by our three-point shooting. We take good ones and the percentage is solid. FT shooting is super. Just ask SC how important that is.

It's late to be changing lineups, and that does affect defense. This is an odd team, where a guy can play well all year and suddenly not start: Alkins. He handled it well last night. Solid performance. Just love his work on the O-boards and that lefty drive.

We can score 90 with Lauri scoring 11, and most of that late. When a guy goes cold or just isn't feeling it, we have answers. Love our freshmen!

Yes, we do a lot of little things very well offensively that wins us games that we otherwise may lose or come close to. Knocking down free throws and limiting turnovers are two that jump out. I am not as concerned with who starts as much as I am making sure the right pieces are on the floor at the same time (balance, mitigating weaknesses) and talent getting enough minutes. Kobi Simmons and Rawle Alkins are the guys that push us over the edge and will be the difference in several games if we went on a deep run. And not just thinking in terms of depth. It's the fact that on any given night, the odds are in our favor that at least one of them is going to be a 18-20 point type of guy who can hang with the best players in the country. Whoever emerges as that guy in that game is the guy who will get the more minutes out of the two. So instead of being a team with a triple headed monster and one of those guys inevitably being off on a given night, we have better odds at maintaining a three headed monster when the third head is whoever is having an on night between Kobi and Rawle.

We will see how things pan out moving forward, but I think we can agree that the combined 30 minutes between those two in the USC game was at least 10 combined minutes too few. You have to find ways to get your best/NBA talent on the floor. Talent wise, nobody has more than Kobi and Rawle outside of Trier and Lauri, and we have enough versatility and flexibility to make that happen.

loomer · Post by **loomer** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:14 pm

prh wrote:
Longhorned wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:Kenpom Update: AdjO: 21 AdjD: 31

Last year's team had a higher ranked offense, but this year's 117.5 is much better than last year's 115.7.
As far as defense goes last year we were ranked 29th (As OlsonDogg would be very happy to remind me) and their number was 94.7 to this year's 95.6 and the smaller the number the better for defense. That's a very disappointing number for defense especially with the uptick in athleticism this year's team has compared to last year's. Typically the magic number combination for the Final Four is top 20 in both unless you're UCONN of course. Defense has got to improve. I doubt that number gets better after the UCLA game of course.
I agree, and I always say the same thing you're saying here, but I'm wondering if maybe there's a false correlation. Is top 20 efficiency in both categories really such an indicator, or is it more of a common byproduct of teams with 1-3 seeds? That's to say: What really gets you to a Final Four is having a higher seed, which enables more favorable match-ups. Another thing that gets you more favorable match-ups is the luck of other 1-3 seeds in your own bracket falling earlier, which is statistically rarer, and the reason why UConn's successes are an outlier. As a 1-seed and as a 2-seed, Wisconsin made back-to-back Final Fours without being in the top 20 on defense. So should we focus more on whether Arizona is top 20 in both categories for efficiency, or more on whether Arizona is winning enough games to earn as high a seed as possible? If the answer is "both", I wonder if that has more to do with how the two considerations tend to overlap, but don't have to.
It's not really a false correlation, but it is more nuanced than just "be top 20." First of all, it weeds out teams like UCLA (AdjD 104) and some past Duke teams (AdjD > 100). Those are the teams that flame out and create the "luck" you mentioned. One thing that is usually overlooked is the that teams tend to improve their ranking as they progress through the tournament (whether it's because their numbers improve or losing teams drop). That is a built in help to teams in our current range that advance to the FF.

As for the numbers/rankings themselves, remember the "Adj" part of AdjD. The numbers are adjusted for opponents, and I believe we improved after the first UCLA game. If we play well on Saturday, I would expect that to repeat.

Not necessarily. VCU's defense was ranked 138th heading into the 2011 tourney, and obviously their offense wasn't comparable to 2017 UCLA. What I've found in general in the KenPom era is that if a team is extremely one dimensional on either side of the ball (like sub-100) they are more likely to be upset early in the tournament. The more efficient you are on both sides of the ball (top-20 or higher) your chances of reaching the FF go up dramatically. This may seem pretty obvious, but it's not a perfect science and there will always be anomalies. Here, I'll look at the Elite 8 teams from the last 5 years and also major upsets from those tournaments, all using KenPom pre-tournament numbers. Blue Columns = AdjO and AdjD, Green = Elite 8, Red = Upset, Yellow = Final Four, Grey = National Title

2012

Pretty chalk season.

2013

Wild year. Florida was underseeded and only given a #3 seed. #1 Lousivile rode their top defense, and dramatically improved their offense during the tournament to the title.

2014

Look at the flying Archies! Also notice how underseeded Lousiville and Kentucky were.

2015

Once again shows how underseeded we were going into the tournament. If only we were in Villanova's bracket...

2016

Virginia essentially choked the Final Four away.

It's pretty difficult to extrapolate from this. I think pretty much everyone would agree we have a better team than last year, but the numbers don't really portray that because our scoring margin hasn't been great .

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:54 pm

loomer wrote:
It's pretty difficult to extrapolate from this. I think pretty much everyone would agree we have a better team than last year, but the numbers don't really portray that because our scoring margin hasn't been great .

Excellent post Loomer and this is a very great point. When Arizona is engaged on defense the scoring margin certainly suggests that, but we aren't fully engaged on that end of the ball more often than not and that certainly has impacted the scoring margin negatively. Does making the stakes larger via the tournament change that for the better for Arizona? Let's hope.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:17 pm

Is there a way to map AdjO over time? I would be interested in our evolution throughout the year.

I tend to agree with the general sentiment that a fairly balanced situation is better and that the big problems creep in when you have a team with one weak side. In the NCAA, you will probably have at least one shaky offensive game or face a team that gets hot.

When you are one sided, those games are more likely to kill you. That said, I feel like our tourney fortunes are dependent on luck, and have been for a while. There's always that element, but we have suffered bad breaks for a long time. When that evens out...

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:31 pm

PennZona20 wrote:I like
PJC
Allen
Alkins
Lauri
Dusan

As the starting 5 when everyone is healthy. I just don't think it will happen. Trier will probably remain starting and Allen has to start.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:32 pm

Not a big game team. Can't do anything against a zone. Color me surprised if we get out of the first weekend.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:53 pm

Horse shit effort. Complete horse shit. Pretty fucking sad when Keanu Pinder was our best 4/5. Im perfectly fine with putting Dusan on a one way flight back home, and divying up his completely worthless 23 minutes to Lauri (since he cant guard a 4 anymore), Chance and giving Pinder some more burn.

Go small, go quick from here on out. Get guys out there who have a nose for a GD ball and if Lauri isnt hitting put his butt on the bench too. We cant beat a zone then run. Its clear this half court hot potato take our time on the zone is going to have our asses throwing stuff at home in the first couple of rounds of the tournament. We are better off running up the court and pushing the issue than what we have been doing. Frustrating as hell to contiue to watch us go on these six minute droughts and out points are walkin the ball up the floor and letting the zone setup

az91 · Post by **az91** » Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:56 pm

This was a very disappointing game at the worst possible time with everything on the line. Except for Tier, it seems like everyone has played their best basketball already.

Login • Register