Official Bracketology Thread

[PHXCATS]

Ucla could have more losses with a balanced schedule. So your attitude and points are both poor.

Besides Kentucky which was a great road win ucla has a trash ooc schedule and the committee sees that thus why they may not be a 1 seed even though they are the hottest pac12 team now.

[Bruins01]

Ucla could have more losses with a balanced schedule. So your attitude and points are both poor.

Besides Kentucky which was a great road win ucla has a trash ooc schedule and the committee sees that thus why they may not be a 1 seed even though they are the hottest pac12 team now.

Haha. Maybe you're not really capable of understanding this point, or perhaps the fact that I'm a UCLA fan has made you overly defensive and irrational. My point was that the fact that UCLA finished behind Oregon and Arizona in the conference standings is not a reason to seed UCLA lower than Oregon and Arizona. Not complicated.

Don't talk to me about attitude when you have a post that consists solely of saying "USC" over and over again, as if it would hurt my feelings or some other embarrassingly immature thing you were trying to do.

[scumdevils86]

UCLA has a worse loss than any loss UofA has sustained. Argument over. Sorry.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Rationally, here's the reason for the standings.

Oregon is #1 because they had one misstep vs a member of the non-power three in the Pac , but are 2-1 vs the other big 3.

Arizona is #2 because they're only 1-2 vs the other big 3 members, but have no L's to the lower teams.

UCLA is #3 because they're 2-2 vs the big 3 and have lost to a lower team.

If UCLA has an issue with where they're at, they shouldn't have lost to USC. Oregon only survived that by being over .500 vs the big boys. We have our advantage because we haven't lost to anyone but the big boys.

You're getting me wrong here. I am complaining about the unbalanced schedule. I actually like that UCLA played both Oregon and Arizona twice, because all four games were fun as hell and I got to attend two of them. I don't think UCLA was going to win the conference either way nor do I think the committee is stupid enough to factor that into seedings, I'm just saying that the unbalanced schedule is the only reason UCLA is in third place rather than tied for second.

If you want to have a separate and much more interesting conversation about whether UCLA was the best team in the conference...

I'm saying that one factor never solely defines where you wind up. The unbalanced schedule gave UCLA one more game than Oregon or Arizona, but that doesn't matter if UCLA doesn't lose to USC.

Blame the schedule, but USC matters just as much.

Well, duh...

My whole point was that the committee shouldn't give Arizona or Oregon a higher seed than UCLA just because UCLA finished behind them on the conference standings, simply because of the unbalanced conference schedule. The USC loss has nothing to do with that.

UCLA has one more loss than Arizona unless we lose to ASU. I don't know how it is unfair to give us a higher seed based on fewer losses. We split with UCLA, so it's not like that is a negative for us.

You can point to fewer losses overall, but other than UK, the OOC for UCLA wasn't much different than Arizona. USC is a worse loss than Arizona has, and that can't really be argued with.

Weight it how you want, but Arizona has a better conference record and losses. UCLA has one fewer loss on the season. It always depends on how those factors are weighted, but it isn't like it is devoid of logic.

[PHXCATS]

Ucla could have more losses with a balanced schedule. So your attitude and points are both poor.

Besides Kentucky which was a great road win ucla has a trash ooc schedule and the committee sees that thus why they may not be a 1 seed even though they are the hottest pac12 team now.

Haha. Maybe you're not really capable of understanding this point, or perhaps the fact that I'm a UCLA fan has made you overly defensive and irrational. My point was that the fact that UCLA finished behind Oregon and Arizona in the conference standings is not a reason to seed UCLA lower than Oregon and Arizona. Not complicated.

Don't talk to me about attitude when you have a post that consists solely of saying "USC" over and over again, as if it would hurt my feelings or some other embarrassingly immature thing you were trying to do.

Ucla barely beat Utah and didn't play at Cal.

You are partly correctly but fully a jerk. You seem unable to understand the fully impact of a balanced schedule vs what we have now instead you focus on a fraction of it.

And if ucla didn't lose to usc bad your point and attitude would be better received.

[Bear Down Vegas]

It's not that you're a UCLA fan Bruins - I can disagree with Bug and not think he's condescending/a guy I wouldn't even want to have a beer with - because he's not. Keep laughing it up on a rivals message board.

[Bruins01]

Haha. I don't know why you guys are ascribing to me a whole bunch of arguments that I never made.

[Bear Down Vegas]

Haha. I don't know why you guys are ascribing to me a whole bunch of arguments that I never made.

Right on cue.

[NYCat]

How do you rank/seed them?

Team A:

Kenpom: 12
Sargarin: 11
RPI: 16
BPI: 11
SOS: 88
OOC SOS: 259
Vs top 25: 3-2
Vs top 50: 3-0

Team B:

Kenpom: 22
Sargarin: 20
RPI: 9
BPI: 23
SOS: 32
OOC SOS: 27
Vs top 25: 1-4
Vs top 50: 4-0

Team C:

Kenpom: 17
Sargarin: 14
RPI: 4
BPI: 13
SOS: 31
OOC SOS: 68
Vs top 25: 2-2
Vs top 50: 4-0

[scumdevils86]

C
A
B

[NYCat]

Team C
Team A
Team B

[EVCat]

C is clearly 1 since the committee so favors RPI. But it is a real close race there on pure metrics.

A and B could share a seed line, as you can pull different metrics out. But the one that makes A a better choice in the higher seeds than B is the 3-2 vs top 25 vs 1-4. Vs top 50 is a relatively valuable metric, but more so when you are seeding middle seeded teams. I mean, I'd rather see a load of top 50 games than top 200 games, but if you have a virtual wash at the top 50 metric, which A and B are, and you are talking about teams in battle for a top seed, 3-2 stands out considerably over 1-4 among the elite (top 25). Maybe a Top 10 metric would help even more but if we were to really mine down for good seeding, I'd like to see last 10/12/15 games in those metrics (top 25/50).

But based on what we have, while A and B are pretty close teams, that record vs Top 25 makes A more deserving of a higher seed than B since there are no flaws for either team in the 50. Three of the four metric rankings favor A as well, and that is because of that Top 25 record.

I am assuming this is Oregon C, Arizona A, UCLA B. On a fully blind test, what I say holds up, but knowing the teams, you can start to apply other eyeball factors.

[Spaceman Spiff]

How do you rank/seed them?

Team A:

Kenpom: 12
Sargarin: 11
RPI: 16
BPI: 11
SOS: 88
OOC SOS: 259
Vs top 25: 3-2
Vs top 50: 3-0

Team B:

Kenpom: 22
Sargarin: 20
RPI: 9
BPI: 23
SOS: 32
OOC SOS: 27
Vs top 25: 1-4
Vs top 50: 4-0

Team C:

Kenpom: 17
Sargarin: 14
RPI: 4
BPI: 13
SOS: 31
OOC SOS: 68
Vs top 25: 2-2
Vs top 50: 4-0

I'm fairly sure that Team B is always #1 in my heart.

[Bruins01]

The committee has been moving away from RPI. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... ess-teams/" target="_blank

Plus, there has always been emphasis on performance over the last ten games, and they are increasingly relying on objective evaluations like kenpom, et al. Frankly, a good argument could be made for whichever order is chosen. I don't think any one argument is better than any other. It all comes down to the tournament, which will again be unbalanced, as Arizona and UCLA will (likely) have to play each other while Oregon gets to face either Cal or Utah, neither of which is playing well right now.

[EVCat]

Maybe I had the order wrong.

If I am making the case for UCLA, I go to that top 25 metric. Even if it hurts us.

But I still think, as I said, those two teams are deserving of a same seed.

[Bruins01]

Teams A, B, and C are UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon respectively. I think Oregon has locked in a 2 seed already assuming it doesn't somehow lose before the final in the tournament. The winner of UCLA-Arizona would also guarantee itself a 2, and if UCLA beats Arizona and Oregon, somehow, I think UCLA would get the 2 in the west or maybe even the 1. That may also be the case for Arizona, but I don't think UA is really in the running for the 2 seed in the west right now.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Teams A, B, and C are UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon respectively. I think Oregon has locked in a 2 seed already assuming it doesn't somehow lose before the final in the tournament. The winner of UCLA-Arizona would also guarantee itself a 2, and if UCLA beats Arizona and Oregon, somehow, I think UCLA would get the 2 in the west or maybe even the 1. That may also be the case for Arizona, but I don't think UA is really in the running for the 2 seed in the west right now.

Pac tourney matters. If Oregon wins it, I think they'd be locked in as the 2 in the West, but I can't see them falling to a 3. Worst case for them, they get shipped to a region other than the West as a 2. UCLA isn't getting a 1, but I could see them solidifying a 3 by making the finals and contending for a 2 if they win it. Arizona is probably a 3 with a L in the semis/finals and a 2 if they win it.

If Arizona or UCLA has a disaster and loses in the first round, they could potentially fall to a 4. Arizona and UCLA have the most to gain because they have to go through 2 top 10 teams to win it.

[azcat49]

I think It is fair to say the Bruins have the best resume of the 3 at this point. Losses to Oregon, AZ and USC are not bad and they have wins against Oregon, Kentucky and AZ.

That Friday night game will be a joy to watch as both teams should just let it fly. It will be tough on Saturday for either of them for sure so ball out Friday and get a marquee win

[EVCat]

If we come out of the 2 seed and win the PAC without an upset making the semis not UCLA, we have to be considered for a 2 in the west with back to back top 10 wins

[Dosia]

If we come out of the 2 seed and win the PAC without an upset making the semis not UCLA, we have to be considered for a 2 in the west with back to back top 10 wins

Yep. If we beat UCLA and Oregon in the tourny we are the 2 in the west.

[Irish27]

Can't believe in 8 days the brackets will be announced. Love this time of year!

[azcat49]

Can't believe in 8 days the brackets will be announced. Love this time of year!

Love it and hate it. The excitement is ratcheted so high but the inevitable ending of the season is near

[Alieberman]

It seems like the big 3 in the PAC are getting (2) 2 seeds and a 3. Loser of UofA / UCLA getting the 3. And Oregon looks locked in at a 2 with a chance of moving up to a 1 if they win the PAC tournament

[Irish27]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

[Irish27]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology" target="_blank

[CalStateTempe]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Daytons taking out UNC in that bracket.

Book it.

[CalStateTempe]

Looks like the cats can plan on getting shipped.

I'm disappointed (S16 in San Jose), but ok with it.

[Irish27]

Looks like the cats can plan on getting shipped.

I'm disappointed (S16 in San Jose), but ok with it.

If the UofA wins the Pac-12 tournament, they will be in the west. I believe they can do it, don't forget, the Cats will have more fans attending than any team.

[PHXCATS]

Looks like the cats can plan on getting shipped.

I'm disappointed (S16 in San Jose), but ok with it.

If the UofA wins the Pac-12 tournament, they will be in the west. I believe they can do it, don't forget, the Cats will have more fans attending than any team.

I can see UCLA fans coming this year. Did three years ago big time for the title game vs the Cats

[Longhorned]

So far this year, Arizona has at more success against UCLA with more Bruins fans in the arena.

[Irish27]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology" target="_blank

[Gilbertcat]

I will preach this till the end. I dont think what happens in the tournament will result in any changes to the seed line. I just haven't seen a case when the committee made changes unless a team was on the bubble and had to win the tournament to get in. I think its too late for them to stay up and watch the games and the bracket is already made. I would like a 2 seed but I just think they are stuck as a 3. Possibly even if Oregon goes down to Az in the finals. I hope I am wrong and the locations and matchups are favorable; feel that it will be more underseeding and against other underseeded teams.

[Dosia]

I will preach this till the end. I dont think what happens in the tournament will result in any changes to the seed line. I just haven't seen a case when the committee made changes unless a team was on the bubble and had to win the tournament to get in. I think its too late for them to stay up and watch the games and the bracket is already made. I would like a 2 seed but I just think they are stuck as a 3. Possibly even if Oregon goes down to Az in the finals. I hope I am wrong and the locations and matchups are favorable; feel that it will be more underseeding and against other underseeded teams.

I would hope they arent that short sighted and they have cases in place for various outcomes of conf tournaments for teams that are close.

[Chicat]

I will preach this till the end. I dont think what happens in the tournament will result in any changes to the seed line. I just haven't seen a case when the committee made changes unless a team was on the bubble and had to win the tournament to get in. I think its too late for them to stay up and watch the games and the bracket is already made. I would like a 2 seed but I just think they are stuck as a 3. Possibly even if Oregon goes down to Az in the finals. I hope I am wrong and the locations and matchups are favorable; feel that it will be more underseeding and against other underseeded teams.

I would hope they arent that short sighted and they have cases in place for various outcomes of conf tournaments for teams that are close.

A) Many college basketball analysts have us as a 2 seed right now. Lunardi has us as a 3 seed, but he just said yesterday we can jump up all the way to a 1 seed if we win the conference tourney, which just goes to show he's pulling shit out of his ass.

B) It's much more likely the committee has placeholders for conferences rather than teams when those teams are bunched that tightly. In other words, they have "Pac-12 Champion" in the 2 seed line of the West right now. Then if Gonzaga loses they slide that up to the 1 seed line. If Oregon wins the tourney and Gonzaga loses, there is no way they'd be so stuck with what they have in place today that Gonzaga still gets the 1 seed. Same thing for Arizona. If we win the tourney and Gonzaga also wins, we are the 2 in the West. No doubt in my mind.

[NYCat]

Here's the only tangible thing we can go off. The Feb 11th early bracket the selection committee released.



Here's what happened since.

1 seeds:
1. Villanova // 1 Loss
2. Kansas
3. Baylor // 3 Losses
4. Gonzaga // 1 L
2 seeds:
5. North Carolina // 1 L
6. Florida State // 3 L
7. Louisville // 2 L
8. Oregon //
3 Seeds:
9. Arizona // 1 L
10. Virginia // 4 L
11. Florida // 2 L
12. Kentucky
4 seeds:
13. Butler // 2 L
14. West Virginia // 2 L
15. UCLA
16. Duke // 3 L

Kinda easier to figure where teams will be seeded. Whoever wins their conference tournament from UNC, Oregon (Arizona) will likely get the #1 seed, Kentucky is a #2 seed, UCLA probably slides into a #2.

[Alieberman]

If the Feb 11 bracket was truly where teams were ranked by the committee, the current top 16 (if you used those same 16 teams) should look something like this:

1 seeds:
1. Kansas
2. Villanova // 1 Loss
3. North Carolina // 1 L
4. Gonzaga // 1 L

2 seeds:
5. Oregon //
6. Kentucky
7. UCLA
8. Arizona // 1 L

3 Seeds:
9. Louisville // 2 L
10. Florida // 2 L
11. Baylor // 3 Losses
12. West Virginia // 2 L

4 seeds:
13. Duke // 3 L
14. Florida State // 3 L
15. Butler // 2 L
16 Virginia // 4 L

[Olsondogg]

Arizona wins out, they are a 2 seed. If they don't they are a 3 (or worse). I think that's pretty clear. I'd wager the same would be the case for Oregon...uCla might have an outside shot at a 1 IMO>

[PHXCATS]

UCLA or Oregon win the pac12 they are number one in the West

Arizona wins they are the number two in the west.

Arizona gets to final by beati UCLA but loses to Oregon 2 seed else where.

Arizona is a three by beating CU or WSU but losing to UCLA.

Arizona maybe a four by losing to CU or WSU but depends on others

[Olsondogg]

What is Oregon's big non conference win?

[ASUHATER!]

Tennessee and Uconn in Hawaii? home against Alabama?

[MountainCat]

What is Oregon's big non conference win?

It doesn't matter because they are good and they have Brooks.

......And while we are at it, I'm sure Duke deserves a 2 seed - In the east.

[NYCat]

What is Arizona's big non conference win?

UCLA has the only good one in Kentucky.

Kansas and UNC lost to Indiana. Both will likely be #1 seeds

[MountainCat]

What is Arizona's big non conference win?

UCLA has the only good one in Kentucky.

Kansas and UNC lost to Indiana. Both will likely be #1 seeds

The question ought to be "What is your worse non-conference loss?".

[Olsondogg]

What is Arizona's big non conference win?

UCLA has the only good one in Kentucky.

Kansas and UNC lost to Indiana. Both will likely be #1 seeds

The discussion was not what was Arizona's, or anyone elses, it was what was Oregon's.

But to answer your stupid sidebar, Arizona's best non conference win was Michigan State, uCla's win on the road was better than anyone else's non conference win, and as far as Kansas and UNC:

UNC beat Wisconsin and Oklahoma State.
Kansas beat Duke.

We can keep playing if you want.

[NYCat]

I don't care enough, they won 27 of their games is all that matters.

If a win is a win no matter how ugly like you've been arguing for Arizona the last couple of weeks, the same is true for Oregon.

[Spaceman Spiff]

What is Arizona's big non conference win?

UCLA has the only good one in Kentucky.

Kansas and UNC lost to Indiana. Both will likely be #1 seeds

The discussion was not what was Arizona's, or anyone elses, it was what was Oregon's.

But to answer your stupid sidebar, Arizona's best non conference win was Michigan State, uCla's win on the road was better than anyone else's non conference win, and as far as Kansas and UNC:

UNC beat Wisconsin and Oklahoma State.
Kansas beat Duke.

We can keep playing if you want.

Our biggest selling point: good record, no bad losses.

Our biggest drawback: only one really top level win.

I'd count Butler as a half a win, but I'm still hacked off about the reffing in that one. I don't expect the selection folks to care, but I would hope we get some credit for not being at full strength for Butler and for being very far from full strength vs Zaga.

[Olsondogg]

I don't care enough, they won 27 of their games is all that matters.

If a win is a win no matter how ugly like you've been arguing for Arizona the last couple of weeks, the same is true for Oregon.

I haven't argued about a seed for Arizona this year. You are the one bringing up others into some stupid sidebar.

The fact is, Oregon has beaten nobody of note in the non conference. If you want to make the same argument about Arizona, so be it...but nobody is talking about Arizona being a 1 at this point.

[Olsondogg]

Furthermore Oregon has been on the better side of last second wins for majority of the year, especially in the conference. People want to complain about how Arizona wins or closes out games, but take a look at Oregon for a brief second.

[CatFanOneMil]

Unless UA wins Pac 12 tourney they appear to be no higher than a 3 seed MOST bracket folks have them at 3/4 in South...

If they do not win it outright I expect them to be a 4 seed...remember its the NCAA...same guys who demanded ALL TRACES OF PED BE OUT OF HIS SYSTEM BEFORE HE IS ALLOWED TO PLAY...

(And if I am not mistaken regarding UCLA seeding they have 3 losses in Pac 12 compared to Ducks/Cats 2...if my maths are correct that is one more loss than the other 2 seeds...it really doesn't matter WHO the loss is to, it's still one more than the other guys...so yea ucla fans stop yer whining)

[EVCat]

Can't believe in 8 days the brackets will be announced. Love this time of year!

Love it and hate it. The excitement is ratcheted so high but the inevitable ending of the season is near

My love of college baseball helps soften the blow somewhat, but i totally agree. I have loosened up about this as i get older, and swore to myself after the craziness at the end of the Lute era that I would enjoy the process, but this year feels like 2014 to me, like we just have ro get to the Final Four, but for different reasons. In 2014, i was so confident we would make it, i planned the trip to Dallas before the season even began (i have friends in the area and was going to go regardless, but the plans were brought on by the Final Four location) and still think we were the best team in the nation before Bash went down (and we still should have made it). This year, i am motivated by feeling like this is am amazing opportunity to showcase Arizona basketball in a home state final four, and feel like Miller has done a masterful job, his best yet, this year and it is time to shed that stupid "best coach to not advance one more round into the marketing titled "Final Four" even though in other sports with similar D1 numbers, the final 8 is the "destination" (CWS, WCWS)" moniker. There are moments when a program can take advantage of circumstances and explode, and this year, with the Miller storyline and the home state final four and the Lauri storyline, followed by Ayton and the class coming in with a healthy list of returners expected, if we can do this right now, the exposure and rewards will be exponential. The focus on what Miller has done and what this program is about (a reminder for those east of us) while playing a home Final Four could be the launch pad to the super elite status this program has often toed the edge of but never crossed. Four Final Fours in 13 years, the chance we had to go back to back in 98 wirh everyone returning, the Jay Williams non foul and what a 2nd title in 5 years would have meant, one more bucket in 03 or 05 or both would have put us in 5 or 6 FFs in 17 years and continued a 2 decade run of no 4 year players ever missing a FF....

...I am rambling a bit, but i think most of you get what i am saying. We have been on the edge of breaking through and going from best in the west to an addition to the "Phat" a few times. And I really feel like, in the one and done era, and with a 2nd coach (a "Program", not just a single coach) , if we can get there this year, with the extra storyline of "Zona in Arizona", Miller will be annoited as elite, and the effect will be even greater than if we advanced to the FF in Houston or Chicago, etc.

This seems like a real hanging curve...not that it would be easy, just that if we do connect, we can really knock this out of the park and take a leap even from where we are.