2017-2018 Arizona Basketball

[Spaceman Spiff]

https://www.draftsite.com/nba/mock-draft/2018/

4 Ayton
9 Trier
13 Akot
23 Alkins
48 Ristic

http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft" target="_blank

4 Ayton
28 Alkins
39 Trier

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2018-nba-mock-draft.html" target="_blank

3 Ayton
15 Akot
22 Trier
23 Alkins

I like Akot, but those are some EXTRAORDINARILY optimistic opinions about his draft stock, especially given that he probably has zero chance of starting over Trier/Alkins. Maybe 2019, but geez.

[Bangkok Wildcat]

Stupid question here....Who is Kory Jones? Walk-on? Any good?

Any injury updates from the Spanish trip? Thanks in advance.

[YoDeFoe]

https://www.draftsite.com/nba/mock-draft/2018/

4 Ayton
9 Trier
13 Akot
23 Alkins
48 Ristic

http://www.nbadraft.net/2018mock_draft" target="_blank

4 Ayton
28 Alkins
39 Trier

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2018-nba-mock-draft.html" target="_blank

3 Ayton
15 Akot
22 Trier
23 Alkins

Ayton will go in the top 5, Trier in the top 20, Alkins in the first round. I don't expect Akot to go this year (baring a Final Four run that cleans house, wherein either Akot or Randolph could slip out).

Oh and Ristic on a draft board isn't funny.

[PennZona20]

Ristic was probably an NBA player 5 years ago, but in the new NBA where a low post game doesn't matter nearly as much. ..... I don't see it. His lack of foot speed would be exploited so badly on pick n rolls it's horrible to think about.

Still, he will make a nice living playing ball back in Europe at the very least

[KaibabKat]

Stupid question here....Who is Kory Jones? Walk-on? Any good?

Sophomore walk-on. Played a total of seven minutes in four games last season. Took one three point shot and made it - also had a block in that time.

It has now been confirmed that he tore an ACL during the trip to Spain and will be out for the coming season.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Ristic was probably an NBA player 5 years ago, but in the new NBA where a low post game doesn't matter nearly as much. ..... I don't see it. His lack of foot speed would be exploited so badly on pick n rolls it's horrible to think about.

Still, he will make a nice living playing ball back in Europe at the very least

In 1992, Dusan would have gone top 20 in the draft. Guys like Eric Montross, Greg Ostertag and Cherokee Parks were all the rage.

[PennZona20]

Ristic was probably an NBA player 5 years ago, but in the new NBA where a low post game doesn't matter nearly as much. ..... I don't see it. His lack of foot speed would be exploited so badly on pick n rolls it's horrible to think about.

Still, he will make a nice living playing ball back in Europe at the very least

In 1992, Dusan would have gone top 20 in the draft. Guys like Eric Montross, Greg Ostertag and Cherokee Parks were all the rage.

No doubt. Even in 2012 he's a back end first rounder/ early 2nd at worst. Unfortunately for Dusan the new NBA doesn't fit his skill set. Timing is everything and he was born a few years too late.

[Jefe]

Kory Jones torn ACL in Spain, out for season

[ChooChooCat]

Ayton will go in the top 5, Trier in the top 20, Alkins in the first round. I don't expect Akot to go this year (baring a Final Four run that cleans house, wherein either Akot or Randolph could slip out).

Oh and Ristic on a draft board isn't funny.

I really hope the bolded is correct. I think both may slip into the 2nd round, but either way both can and should certainly carve out roles in the NBA. Trier as a scoring option off the bench and Rawle as a 3 & D guy.

At this point I could see Randolph playing his way into the draft as a 6th man and I'm not overreacting based on his play in Spain either. The guy is a year old for his grade and he already has a NBA skill set. I'm not saying he does go, but him sneaking into the back end of the 1st round isn't far fetched IMO, the kid has all the tools necessary and he is going to perform. Akot will definitely need another year to refine his skill set and get to where he should be.

[azcat49]

So Ira Lee is projected for a couple years here correct?

[Spaceman Spiff]

So Ira Lee is projected for a couple years here correct?

He's a tweener forward without dominant physical skill. If he isn't here at least 3-4 years, it's due to a transfer. That's my 2 cents, at least.

[Bangkok Wildcat]

Stupid question here....Who is Kory Jones? Walk-on? Any good?

Sophomore walk-on. Played a total of seven minutes in four games last season. Took one three point shot and made it - also had a block in that time.

It has now been confirmed that he tore an ACL during the trip to Spain and will be out for the coming season.

Thanks KK.....read the article on Desert Swarm. UNBELIEVABLE, checks in with 1:04 left to play in the whole game and tears his ACL in a decided game. That is crazy, crappy luck.....Good grief, hope the Basketball Gods take mercy on us this year.......already a brutal start and August isn't over. Smh.

Bear Down Kory and good luck with your recovery!

[ChooChooCat]

So Ira Lee is projected for a couple years here correct?

He's a tweener forward without dominant physical skill. If he isn't here at least 3-4 years, it's due to a transfer. That's my 2 cents, at least.

I'll add another cent to it. I love the guy and how hard he plays, but yeah if he's not a 4 year player at Arizona it's due to the reason Spiff mentioned.

[YoDeFoe]

At this point I could see Randolph playing his way into the draft as a 6th man and I'm not overreacting based on his play in Spain either. The guy is a year old for his grade and he already has a NBA skill set. I'm not saying he does go, but him sneaking into the back end of the 1st round isn't far fetched IMO, the kid has all the tools necessary and he is going to perform. Akot will definitely need another year to refine his skill set and get to where he should be.

Agreed on both those takes.

Regarding Trier slipping into the second round, that would surprise me. I think Trier puts up stats similar to Luke Kennard of last year, 20 / 5/ 3 shooting 42% from deep. Kennard shot it better from deep and two last year than I expect from Trier, but Trier is exceptional at getting to the line and finishing at the rim so I'd call it a wash. Both are exceptional (top 5) pick n roll ball handlers according to Synergy Sports (or they were last year and I expect the same from Trier this year in more touches). They've got very similar builds (Trier v Kennard). Kennard went 12th in the draft last year.

That sounds like a one point argument but looking back you can choose others. 2016 had a glut of wings go in the late teens to early twenties (Valentine, Beasley, Richardson, LaVert). 2015 the same (Oubre, Vaughn, Grant, Dekker, Anderson). Etc.

I assume Rawle and Trier will get taken in that sort of heap - guys who aren't blowing you off the page with measurements and three point shooting (seemingly the requirement for a lottery pick) but that you'll take a chance on becoming a solid addition to the rotation.

[ChooChooCat]

At this point I could see Randolph playing his way into the draft as a 6th man and I'm not overreacting based on his play in Spain either. The guy is a year old for his grade and he already has a NBA skill set. I'm not saying he does go, but him sneaking into the back end of the 1st round isn't far fetched IMO, the kid has all the tools necessary and he is going to perform. Akot will definitely need another year to refine his skill set and get to where he should be.

Agreed on both those takes.

Regarding Trier slipping into the second round, that would surprise me. I think Trier puts up stats similar to Luke Kennard of last year, 20 / 5/ 3 shooting 42% from deep. Kennard shot it better from deep and two last year than I expect from Trier, but Trier is exceptional at getting to the line and finishing at the rim so I'd call it a wash. Both are exceptional (top 5) pick n roll ball handlers according to Synergy Sports (or they were last year and I expect the same from Trier this year in more touches). They've got very similar builds (Trier v Kennard). Kennard went 12th in the draft last year.

That sounds like a one point argument but looking back you can choose others. 2016 had a glut of wings go in the late teens to early twenties (Valentine, Beasley, Richardson, LaVert). 2015 the same (Oubre, Vaughn, Grant, Dekker, Anderson). Etc.

I assume Rawle and Trier will get taken in that sort of heap - guys who aren't blowing you off the page with measurements and three point shooting (seemingly the requirement for a lottery pick) but that you'll take a chance on becoming a solid addition to the rotation.

Interesting comparison via Kennard and Trier, I never thought about that before and after looking at the stats you certainly have a point. The one major difference of course is Kennard was much more consistent from deep than Trier (43% to 39%), and we all know how valuable the 3 point shot is in the NBA today. Trier certainly could prove to be even more consistent this upcoming year that's for certain.

[TucsonClip]

Kennard was a reach, and I dont think anyone can tell me who he is defending in the NBA. Trier would also be a reach. I have him in the 25-40 range. He isnt getting above that unless he proves he can be relied upon as a passer with his creation skills, or he morphs into a + defender where you can rely on him as a 3-and-D SG at his floor.

[YoDeFoe]

Interesting comparison via Kennard and Trier, I never thought about that before and after looking at the stats you certainly have a point. The one major difference of course is Kennard was much more consistent from deep than Trier (43% to 39%), and we all know how valuable the 3 point shot is in the NBA today. Trier certainly could prove to be even more consistent this upcoming year that's for certain.

Yeah one thing that surprised me was how inefficient Trier's two point jumpers were - he shot in the mid 30s while Kennard shot in the mid 40s. For comparison Stanley shot in the mid 40s, TJ with his killer floater and bank shot game was about 50%, Solo shot around 40%. So Trier could use more consistency in his shooting generally (while also maintaining or increasing his usage).

It's a tall order but I hope beyond hope that he can do it with a full healthy season. Another Dukie that Trier could project to is Grayson Allen circa 2016, when he posted 21.6 / 4.5 / 3.5 on VERY similar shooting lines and was pegged as a mid to late first round pick.

None are perfect comps of course but I think they're instructive.

And to the question of was Kennard a reach at 12? Yes I think so. But again what I've seen is that after 15, there's a hot market for scoring wings or guys who can project as 3 & D. Looking at the 2017 group, I think "full season" Trier was better than Bacon, Reed, and Ojeleye who were taken after the 30th pick (statistically there's no question, though I think each of those guys had the length to hope they learn to play better basketball). If I was going to hedge I'd suggest picks 15-25.

[ChooChooCat]

Kennard was a reach, and I dont think anyone can tell me who he is defending in the NBA. Trier would also be a reach. I have him in the 25-40 range. He isnt getting above that unless he proves he can be relied upon as a passer with his creation skills, or he morphs into a + defender where you can rely on him as a 3-and-D SG at his floor.

Honestly isnt he pretty much a Reddick clone in the NBA?

[TucsonClip]

Kennard was a reach, and I dont think anyone can tell me who he is defending in the NBA. Trier would also be a reach. I have him in the 25-40 range. He isnt getting above that unless he proves he can be relied upon as a passer with his creation skills, or he morphs into a + defender where you can rely on him as a 3-and-D SG at his floor.

Honestly isnt he pretty much a Reddick clone in the NBA?

Thats who he should be striving to become. Great shooter, can be a secondary handler in a pinch, flys off screens, solid team defender.

[ProfessorFate]

Just got an email saying I was drawn for Final Four tickets!

please...please...please...

[Jefe]

Got the email that said I was declined...Apparently they dont like repeat customers

[YoDeFoe]

Practices officially begin (again) September 29th. Hopefully that means updates on how the guys are looking in about three weeks.

[Beachcat97]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... basketball" target="_blank

Sounds like Nova will be tough defensively. I miss being included on these lists. It's been a few years since we were among the best defensive teams in the country.

[HiCat]

Arizona basketball: Buzz heightens over possible NCAA transfer rule change

Bruce Pascoe Arizona Daily Star Sep 7, 2017 Updated 32 min ago

Buried in the 13th paragraph of a NCAA news release is this possibility that a committee will be looking into:

"An academic transfer standard for all students that would tie one-time immediate eligibility for competition after transfer to a set of academic benchmarks instead of to in what sport the student-athlete competes."

So... basically anybody could transfer with immediate eligibility the next season elsewhere if their academic grades/progress check out.

As of now, NCAA rules say players in basketball, football, baseball and men's ice hockey must sit out a year but those in other sports can be eligible right away the next season if it is their first transfer.

That's potentially a monumental change, one that coaches are already concerned about.

“It would turn into one of the dirtiest recruiting periods that you've ever seen,” Indiana coach Archie Miller told Scout.

(We haven't been able to reach UA coach Sean Miller yet to see if he has any comment).


http://tucson.com/sports/arizonawildcat ... 84bec.html" target="_blank

[YoDeFoe]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... basketball

Sounds like Nova will be tough defensively. I miss being included on these lists. It's been a few years since we were among the best defensive teams in the country.

Nova is going to be a problem.

Brunson may be the best PG we play all year, and at 6-2 200lbs he's got that size advantage on PJC (though he's not terribly long, so that should help PJC's retain his offense, to a degree). Brunson uses that size though to attack the rim and he does it as good as any guard in the nation, finishing 72% of his rim attempts. And we won't be able to hide PJC on a smaller 2 guard (like a Bryce Alford) and play Trier on the big PG (as we did against Lonzo Ball) as their SG is 6-5 who plays tough, above the rim, and can score at all three levels.

If PJC picks up fouls attempting to defend Brunson's drives, that could combine with his reduced offensive effectiveness to see an early change at the PG spot for Arizona.

That will be VERY interesting for those of us wondering about our ball handler depth and a future that might have PJC out of the starting line-up. Hopefully PJC holds his own.

Mikal Bridges, last year's Big East DPOY, is the other obvious issue out of Nova. 6-7, 210lbs with a 7 foot wingspan, he'll be starting at SF and our wings will have to WORK to keep a player that posted back to back >125ORtg seasons off the scoreboard. Bridges was top ten in the Big East in block and steal % (owing a lot to that wingspan) and our boys will have to figure out how to score through/over/around that big frame.

Here's hoping we get that match-up and that Miller et al figure us a winning game plan.

[Spaceman Spiff]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... basketball

Sounds like Nova will be tough defensively. I miss being included on these lists. It's been a few years since we were among the best defensive teams in the country.

Nova is going to be a problem.

Brunson may be the best PG we play all year, and at 6-2 200lbs he's got that size advantage on PJC (though he's not terribly long, so that should help PJC's retain his offense, to a degree). Brunson uses that size though to attack the rim and he does it as good as any guard in the nation, finishing 72% of his rim attempts. And we won't be able to hide PJC on a smaller 2 guard (like a Bryce Alford) and play Trier on the big PG (as we did against Lonzo Ball) as their SG is 6-5 who plays tough, above the rim, and can score at all three levels.

If PJC picks up fouls attempting to defend Brunson's drives, that could combine with his reduced offensive effectiveness to see an early change at the PG spot for Arizona.

That will be VERY interesting for those of us wondering about our ball handler depth and a future that might have PJC out of the starting line-up.

Mikal Bridges, last year's Big East DPOY, is the other obvious issue out of Nova. 6-7, 210lbs with a 7 foot wingspan, he'll be starting at SF and our wings will have to WORK to keep a player that posted back to back >125ORtg seasons off the scoreboard. Bridges was top ten in the Big East in block and steal % (owing a lot to that wingspan) and our boys will have to figure out how to score through/over/around that big frame.

Here's hoping we get that match-up and that Miller et al figure us a winning game plan.

The key against Nova is using our size. PJC will have issues with Brunson going to the rim, but Ayton is the kind of eraser at the rim that we've never really had.

On offense, Ayton, Dusan and even Alkins can hit the boards. Zo and Rawle are a known quantity on offense, but if we can get second chance points, that can make a huge difference.

That, plus depth. We should have a near constant advantage in depth. Guys like Randolph, Akot and Smith are just a layer most teams don't have.

[PHXCATS]

Everyone can expect an even more rocking McKale this season..........

[Main Event]

Projecting the best offenses in college basketball

1. Arizona Wildcats
Arizona's going to get its fair share of preseason votes as the No. 1 team in the nation, period, and rightly so. With an attack led by Allonzo Trier, Rawle Alkins and incoming freshman Deandre Ayton, Sean Miller will have possibly the most talented and potent nucleus in the country.


In a sophomore season that was abbreviated due to a suspension for PED use, Trier, 6-foot-5, was a foul-drawing machine who made opposing defenses suffer both from beyond the arc and in the paint. Alkins put together a freshman season that qualifies him as a borderline Trier clone, only beefier (and with fewer fouls drawn).

Lastly, Ayton, 7-foot-1, is projected as a top-three pick in the 2018 draft. Keep in mind that in Pac-12 play last season, the Wildcats' only (and I do mean only) brush with statistical mediocrity came in the form of 2-point accuracy (50.1 percent). Ayton will see to it that this number rises in 2017-18. This could be Miller's strongest team yet in Tucson.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... basketball" target="_blank

[Beachcat97]

Seems like we'll have more questions on defense. PJC could have some mismatches, and we'll have to see if Lee and/or Akot can defend athletic wings, like Miles Bridges.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Projecting the best offenses in college basketball

1. Arizona Wildcats
Arizona's going to get its fair share of preseason votes as the No. 1 team in the nation, period, and rightly so. With an attack led by Allonzo Trier, Rawle Alkins and incoming freshman Deandre Ayton, Sean Miller will have possibly the most talented and potent nucleus in the country.

In a sophomore season that was abbreviated due to a suspension for PED use, Trier, 6-foot-5, was a foul-drawing machine who made opposing defenses suffer both from beyond the arc and in the paint. Alkins put together a freshman season that qualifies him as a borderline Trier clone, only beefier (and with fewer fouls drawn).

Lastly, Ayton, 7-foot-1, is projected as a top-three pick in the 2018 draft. Keep in mind that in Pac-12 play last season, the Wildcats' only (and I do mean only) brush with statistical mediocrity came in the form of 2-point accuracy (50.1 percent). Ayton will see to it that this number rises in 2017-18. This could be Miller's strongest team yet in Tucson.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... basketball" target="_blank

I would agree with that. Dusan, Ayton, Rawle and Trier are all capable of dropping 20 any given night. Then, you look at the bench and feel like Randolph and Akot (once he adjusts) can get double figures off the bench pretty regularly. PJC is the only perimeter regular who isn't much of a threat.

Defensively, the length and athletic talent is everywhere except PG. How hard people play and how fast the younger guys develop should dictate a lot.

[YoDeFoe]

Gotta love seeing Zo get his due.

[NYCat]

Where's the Rise & Fire zone defense hot take

[YoDeFoe]

I would agree with that. Dusan, Ayton, Rawle and Trier are all capable of dropping 20 any given night. Then, you look at the bench and feel like Randolph and Akot (once he adjusts) can get double figures off the bench pretty regularly. PJC is the only perimeter regular who isn't much of a threat.

Defensively, the length and athletic talent is everywhere except PG. How hard people play and how fast the younger guys develop should dictate a lot.

Agreed (not surprisingly). Feels like those additional points should have been noted by the author (Dusan's offensive talents and the bench scoring depth, not excluding Barcello the sharpshooter).

Re: PJC, I made some comments recently that if he took three additional threes a game he could put up:

10 pts /5 asts / 3 rbs / 1.5 stls / 1.6 TOs in 30m/g - his game last year with 5 more minutes and three more 3PAs.

That's a TJ McConnell-esque line.

It's not an insignificant change - 3 shots is about 5% of our 66 avg. possessions (hopefully we can speed it up with Romar's input). But the kid is a 40% career three point shooter and shot a York-like 42% from three last season. If Gabe took 7 a game, PJC could take 5 and not be the offensive "concern" that he's made himself out to be.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I would agree with that. Dusan, Ayton, Rawle and Trier are all capable of dropping 20 any given night. Then, you look at the bench and feel like Randolph and Akot (once he adjusts) can get double figures off the bench pretty regularly. PJC is the only perimeter regular who isn't much of a threat.

Defensively, the length and athletic talent is everywhere except PG. How hard people play and how fast the younger guys develop should dictate a lot.

Agreed (not surprisingly). Felt like those additional points should have been noted by the author (Dusan's offensive talents and the bench scoring depth, not excluding Barcello the sharpshooter).

Re: PJC, I made some comments recently that if he took three additional threes a game he could put up:

10 pts /5 asts / 3 rbs / 1.5 stls / 1.6 TOs in 30m/g - his game last year with 5 more minutes and three more 3PAs.

That's a TJ McConnell-esque line.

It's not an insignificant change - 3 shots is about 5% of our 66 avg. possessions (hopefully we can speed it up with Romar's input). But the kid is a 40% career three point shooter and shot a York-like 42% from three last season. If Gabe took 7 a game, PJC could take 5 and not be the offensive "concern" that he's made himself out to be.

I think it was RG2 who made this point (I am trying to credit because it is a really good one that I totally agree with) about PJC. Parker can't really shoot 3's unless he is open due to his size.

A guy like Trier can squeeze one off even if it's contested a bit. Lauri would bury one right in someone's face. PJC needs to be fairly open to even get a shot off.

That will always be a limit on his scoring. He will get shots because the D will definitely slough off our other options. Moreso than most players though, PJC doesn't really control how many shots he gets (in my opinion). The D does.

[YoDeFoe]

I think it was RG2 who made this point (I am trying to credit because it is a really good one that I totally agree with) about PJC. Parker can't really shoot 3's unless he is open due to his size.

A guy like Trier can squeeze one off even if it's contested a bit. Lauri would bury one right in someone's face. PJC needs to be fairly open to even get a shot off.

That will always be a limit on his scoring. He will get shots because the D will definitely slough off our other options. Moreso than most players though, PJC doesn't really control how many shots he gets (in my opinion). The D does.

Agreed, and that helps to make the point I think: if PJC has an open look I'd like for him to take it; if he doesn't have an open look that's because the defense is respecting him and not sagging into lanes. That spacing is crucial for our wings to attack through. With Trier and Rawle and Randolph (and I imagine Smith and Akot) just needing a ray of daylight to get to the rim, that little bit of additional spacing could be the difference between looking for a shot and taking an opportunity.

Thinking over that size concern again though, I get that PJC doesn't create a lot of space even when respected because he's an easy closeout. Maybe due to his height PJC needs to work on taking threes efficiently from a foot or two farther out. I'm making a lot of asks of him but if he's the only offensive concern and he can possibly shoot >40% from three, there's real opportunity there.

[Beachcat97]

Seems like the bottom line is that PJC should not be taking very many shots this year. If he has an open look, he needs to make at least 40% of them. That would help. But most often, he needs to be finding AT, RA, DA, et al. PJC just needs to minimize his TOs and get the ball to our scorers. It almost seems like the less we're talking about him, the better he's probably doing.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I think it was RG2 who made this point (I am trying to credit because it is a really good one that I totally agree with) about PJC. Parker can't really shoot 3's unless he is open due to his size.

A guy like Trier can squeeze one off even if it's contested a bit. Lauri would bury one right in someone's face. PJC needs to be fairly open to even get a shot off.

That will always be a limit on his scoring. He will get shots because the D will definitely slough off our other options. Moreso than most players though, PJC doesn't really control how many shots he gets (in my opinion). The D does.

Agreed, and that helps to make the point I think: if PJC has an open look I'd like for him to take it; if he doesn't have an open look that's because the defense is respecting him and not sagging into lanes. That spacing is crucial for our wings to attack through. With Trier and Rawle and Randolph (and I imagine Smith and Akot) just needing a ray of daylight to get to the rim, that little bit of additional spacing could be the difference between looking for a shot and taking an opportunity.

Thinking over that size concern again though, I get that PJC doesn't create a lot of space even when respected because he's an easy closeout. Maybe due to his height PJC needs to work on taking threes efficiently from a foot or two farther out. I'm making a lot of asks of him but if he's the only offensive concern and he can possibly shoot >40% from three, there's real opportunity there.

I think you and I see it the same. PJC has to take and make open 3's. Him being a threat is crucial for our spacing and balance. We don't need him to worry about creating for himself, but he has to be ready to seize the opportunities he gets and convert them.

[TucsonClip]

Re: PJC, I made some comments recently that if he took three additional threes a game he could put up:

10 pts /5 asts / 3 rbs / 1.5 stls / 1.6 TOs in 30m/g - his game last year with 5 more minutes and three more 3PAs.

That's a TJ McConnell-esque line.

It's not an insignificant change - 3 shots is about 5% of our 66 avg. possessions (hopefully we can speed it up with Romar's input). But the kid is a 40% career three point shooter and shot a York-like 42% from three last season. If Gabe took 7 a game, PJC could take 5 and not be the offensive "concern" that he's made himself out to be.

I made this point on the Scout forum, but its relevant here:

83.3% of PJC's threes made are assisted, and he attempted 2.3 per game. With Lauri gone, I think PJC see a slight uptick in his attempts, but how many possessions do we want PJC using? If he is taking five 3's per game (the three additional 3's per game), that would be more than Trier or Lauri took last year. I would settle on him taking three per contest.

Watching him shoot, I dont see a 40% shooter from deep. It just doesnt add up with what I have seen and certainly doesnt align with his free throw percentage. We are seeing small sample size and I am willing to bet on some regression back towards the mean. Especially since if he takes three per night, that would slot him in at about 105 on the season. He has taken a grand total of 184 in his first three seasons combined.

[Jefe]

Smith and Randolph need 10 attempts a game

PJC could have some mismatches

UMBC, Long Beach and Texas A&M all have have 5'8" PGs Everyone clear out and let them duke it out!

[YoDeFoe]

I made this point on the Scout forum, but its relevant here:

83.3% of PJC's threes made are assisted, and he attempted 2.3 per game. With Lauri gone, I think PJC see a slight uptick in his attempts, but how many possessions do we want PJC using? If he is taking five 3's per game (the three additional 3's per game), that would be more than Trier or Lauri took last year. I would settle on him taking three per contest.

Watching him shoot, I dont see a 40% shooter from deep. It just doesnt add up with what I have seen and certainly doesnt align with his free throw percentage. We are seeing small sample size and I am willing to bet on some regression back towards the mean. Especially since if he takes three per night, that would slot him in at about 105 on the season. He has taken a grand total of 184 in his first three seasons.

I avoid Scout so I appreciate you reiterating here.

The concern regarding number of possessions is worthwhile, though an additional 5% of shots going to PJC last year would still have left him as the sixth most active scorer while on the floor by a fair margin (17% against the next nearest, 21%). Fewer % of shots than TJ took as a Sr, more than TJ took as a Jr when Miller was encouraging him to score more.

PJC takes so few two point attempts that I don't mind him taking a team leading number of three point attempts. And while 2.3 attempts per game is a small sample size, that 184 total shooting 40% indicates to me that PJC can be trusted to increase his attempts and remain around 40%. Maybe I'm wrong of course - the game isn't just numbers on a spreadsheet and as noted PJC has a hard time getting open with his height so those additional quality looks maybe just aren't there.

You're speaking my language and I appreciate that. I recognize that 83.3% number from Hoop-Math.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Re: PJC, I made some comments recently that if he took three additional threes a game he could put up:

10 pts /5 asts / 3 rbs / 1.5 stls / 1.6 TOs in 30m/g - his game last year with 5 more minutes and three more 3PAs.

That's a TJ McConnell-esque line.

It's not an insignificant change - 3 shots is about 5% of our 66 avg. possessions (hopefully we can speed it up with Romar's input). But the kid is a 40% career three point shooter and shot a York-like 42% from three last season. If Gabe took 7 a game, PJC could take 5 and not be the offensive "concern" that he's made himself out to be.

I made this point on the Scout forum, but its relevant here:

83.3% of PJC's threes made are assisted, and he attempted 2.3 per game. With Lauri gone, I think PJC see a slight uptick in his attempts, but how many possessions do we want PJC using? If he is taking five 3's per game (the three additional 3's per game), that would be more than Trier or Lauri took last year. I would settle on him taking three per contest.

Watching him shoot, I dont see a 40% shooter from deep. It just doesnt add up with what I have seen and certainly doesnt align with his free throw percentage. We are seeing small sample size and I am willing to bet on some regression back towards the mean. Especially since if he takes three per night, that would slot him in at about 105 on the season. He has taken a grand total of 184 in his first three seasons combined.

I think that is because PJC pretty much only gets 3's off kickouts and swinging the ball around the perimeter. Those are the shots he should be shooting, standstill, in rhythym, open shots.

There's no reason he can't make 40% of those shots. That's what we need, for him to make the D honor him or make them pay if they don't. We don't need him trying to shoot any more than presents itself.

I feel like the right number is the amount the D gives him, or less if he is not making them. If he's off, he needs to sit so we can get someone in who can hit.

[TucsonClip]

I avoid Scout so I appreciate you reiterating here.

The concern regarding number of possessions is worthwhile, though an additional 5% of shots going to PJC last year would still have left him as the sixth most active scorer while on the floor by a fair margin (17% against the next nearest, 21%). Fewer % of shots than TJ took as a Sr, more than TJ took as a Jr when Miller was encouraging him to score more.

PJC takes so few two point attempts that I don't mind him taking a team leading number of three point attempts. And while 2.3 attempts per game is a small sample size, that 184 total shooting 40% indicates to me that PJC can be trusted to increase his attempts and remain around 40%. Maybe I'm wrong of course - the game isn't just numbers on a spreadsheet and as noted PJC has a hard time getting open with his height so those additional quality looks maybe just aren't there.

You're speaking my language and I appreciate that. I recognize that 83.3% number from Hoop-Math.

My main concern is that PJC's usage rate is so low (14.8% for his career, 13.4% last season), that I think he just needs to let the game come to him. We dont need him to score. We need him to get us good looks (hopefully in transition) and to knock down some open shots. However, if at the end of the year, we see PJC averaging five 3's per game, im not sure how im going to feel. Now if the tempo increases and we see a spike in possessions, thats a different story. I want us out in transition, and PJC pushing the ball up the floor. Thats how PJC will be at his best. However, im all for the open, catch and shoot 3.

I think that is because PJC pretty much only gets 3's off kickouts and swinging the ball around the perimeter. Those are the shots he should be shooting, standstill, in rhythym, open shots.

There's no reason he can't make 40% of those shots. That's what we need, for him to make the D honor him or make them pay if they don't. We don't need him trying to shoot any more than presents itself.

I feel like the right number is the amount the D gives him, or less if he is not making them. If he's off, he needs to sit so we can get someone in who can hit.

As I said, I dont consider him a 40% shooter from deep. I think hes a solid-good shooter, but it just doesnt all add up watching him play. His sway changes, his balance/base can be great one game and a mess the next, his FT% is no where near what you would expect. Furthermore, I think an increase in usage from 3 might open up this disparity a bit. Obviously, that is based on his past results, as none of us know how much/if he has gotten better as a 3pt shooter over the offseason.

Still, as a So., PJC took 72 and shot 37.5%. As a Jr., he took 71 and shot 42.3%.

My hope is that he matches, or somehow, even improves on his percentages from last season. However, a regression to the mean is more likely, IMO, mainly based on watching his mechanics in-game the last three seasons. Again, that is up for debate right now, as I havent seen him shoot (Spain doesnt count).

[YoDeFoe]

As I said, I dont consider him a 40% shooter from deep. I think hes a solid-good shooter, but it just doesnt all add up watching him play. His sway changes, his feet can be great one game and a mess the next, his FT% is no where near what you would expect. Furthermore, I think an increase in usage from 3 might open up this disparity a bit. Obviously, that is based on his past results, as none of us know how much/if he has gotten better as a 3pt shooter over the offseason.

Still, as a So., PJC took 72 and shot 37.5%. As a Jr., he took 71 and shot 42.3%.

My hope is that he matches, or somehow, even improves on his percentages from last season. However, a regression to the mean is more likely, IMO, mainly based on watching his mechanics the last three seasons. Again, that is up for debate right now, as I havent seen him shoot (Spain doesnt count).

Very much appreciate the discussion. I'm not an expert (by any means) on shooting mechanics so those are interesting notes. PJC's low FT% jumps out at me now that you mention it and I am aware that FT% is a good tool for thumbnailing a projection to other shooting.

I suppose I just want PJC to do more and I can usually convince myself that our guys will do that extra thing that many times they just can't do. This sober analysis helps.

If PJC is only putting up 7 points a game... well I'm worried we won't be at our best. I suppose the alternative hope, rather than scoring more, is that he takes a leap in his passing, though he's already pretty damn proficient there.

If he doesn't take a leap in either category... well then he's a low usage and relatively low impact player. With such a stout bench and only five guys on the floor, that doesn't inspire confidence that he'll get a boost in PT. Which then begs the question (again) of who takes those additional 15 min/g at point.

[TucsonClip]

Very much appreciate the discussion. I'm not an expert (by any means) on shooting mechanics so those are interesting notes. PJC's low FT% jumps out at me now that you mention it and I am aware that FT% is a good tool for thumbnailing a projection to other shooting.

I suppose I just want PJC to do more and I can usually convince myself that our guys will do that extra thing that many times they just can't do. This sober analysis helps.

If PJC is only putting up 7 points a game... well I'm worried we won't be at our best. I suppose the alternative hope, rather than scoring more, is that he takes a leap in his passing, though he's already pretty damn proficient there.

If he doesn't take a leap in either category... well then he's a low usage and relatively low impact player. With such a stout bench and only five guys on the floor, that doesn't inspire confidence that he'll get a boost in PT. Which then begs the question (again) of who takes those additional 15 min/g at point.

People have been stating they want PJC to do more here and on Scout. That is what initially sprouted my response regarding his usage vs. Kadeem and then the post I made above. I still think if you want PJC to do more, you want us to dial it up defensively and then get out on the break. That is where PJC is at his best, and that is the most logical place to expect to see improvement and or more of an impact from him. Problem there is, right now, I have concerns about our defense.

Regarding who takes those potential extra minutes at PG? Ill refer back to 97 on that, as he has been saying this for years now.

[Jefe]

We have surrounded him with more talent than he has ever seen. An 8:1 A/T ratio should be a breeze for him in the non-conference.

[YoDeFoe]

8:1 A/T ratio

[Jefe]

5.3/1.5 last season but only 7 games and without Trier. N Colo he had 11/1.

Him and Ayton should be good for 2-3 easy oops a game

[Spaceman Spiff]

We have surrounded him with more talent than he has ever seen. An 8:1 A/T ratio should be a breeze for him in the non-conference.

That is wildly optimistic, although PJC is noted for looking his best against the shakier opponents.

[Beachcat97]

We have surrounded him with more talent than he has ever seen. An 8:1 A/T ratio should be a breeze for him in the non-conference.

That is wildly optimistic, although PJC is noted for looking his best against the shakier opponents.

Sorry, Spiff. Gotta call BS on this one. While the stat sheet doesn't necessarily reflect it, PJC played very well vs. UCLA and Oregon in the Pac tourney. Made some big shots. I think he started figuring some things out late last year, so all we can do is hope this carries over into the new season. We need him to be consistent. He doesn't have to average a lot of points, but at least 5 assist/game would be nice.

[Spaceman Spiff]

We have surrounded him with more talent than he has ever seen. An 8:1 A/T ratio should be a breeze for him in the non-conference.

That is wildly optimistic, although PJC is noted for looking his best against the shakier opponents.

Sorry, Spiff. Gotta call BS on this one. While the stat sheet doesn't necessarily reflect it, PJC played very well vs. UCLA and Oregon in the Pac tourney. Made some big shots. I think he started figuring some things out late last year, so all we can do is hope this carries over into the new season. We need him to be consistent. He doesn't have to average a lot of points, but at least 5 assist/game would be nice.

Look, PJC seems like a nice kid, but he averaged 6 ppg and 2.5 apg vs UCLA and Oregon in those games.

I feel bad for him. His limits are majorly based on stuff beyond his control. He is ok for a role player. As a starter...well, we start a senior PG and 2 soph wings on the perimeter. The guy we're hoping has figured it out and won't be a liability is the senior PG. It isn't fair to PJC, but when you are a preseadon #1, hoping for the best is not what you want or need.