Official Bracketology Thread

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:06 pm

SunnyAZ wrote:ASU has a 9 point lead on Kansas in the 2nd half. In Kansas btw.

Maybe Kansas just isn't good. UW got shredded by the Zags after beating KU.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:53 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
SunnyAZ wrote:ASU has a 9 point lead on Kansas in the 2nd half. In Kansas btw.
Maybe Kansas just isn't good. UW got shredded by the Zags after beating KU.

Their frontcourt rotation is non-existent without Preston and De Sousa (both questionable eligibility) and outside of Doke they're softer than margarine. Four good players, three of which are 6'5" and under, and some garbage.

If they get either of Preston or De Sousa they're a different team. If they get both they're back in title contention.

SunnyAZ · Post by **SunnyAZ** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:14 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
SunnyAZ wrote:ASU has a 9 point lead on Kansas in the 2nd half. In Kansas btw.
Maybe Kansas just isn't good. UW got shredded by the Zags after beating KU.

every team we lost to in the bahamas lost their two other games, maybe we aren't that good

teams have bad stretches

duke lost to bc, we lost to nc state, kansas lost to washington, florida lost to some team named the ramblers

it happens

also KU is still holding out Billy Preston, so he hasn't even played yet

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:54 pm

SunnyAZ wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:
SunnyAZ wrote:ASU has a 9 point lead on Kansas in the 2nd half. In Kansas btw.
Maybe Kansas just isn't good. UW got shredded by the Zags after beating KU.
every team we lost to in the bahamas lost their two other games, maybe we aren't that good

teams have bad stretches

duke lost to bc, we lost to nc state, kansas lost to washington, florida lost to some team named the ramblers

it happens

also KU is still holding out Billy Preston, so he hasn't even played yet

We weren't that good. I think we all agreed to that.

Part of our issue was effort and awareness. Part was team structure (Alkins out and Randolph coming back from injury).

Kansas has both of those problems... but resolution of their team structure issue is far from certain with both of those guys bringing eligibility questions. Additionally, even if they get Preston and De Sousa there are question marks about how effective those two will be. Preston is like a mini-Ayton except the "effort and efficiency" knocks actually fit.

Talented power forward who can do a little bit of everything offensively. Doesn't really know how to play and not someone that looks particularly enjoyable to play with. Team went 0-5 at Nations despite having a great deal of US talent on the roster. Preston got his (26 points per-40), but did so on abysmal shooting percentages (43% TS%) while playing little to no defense. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Billy-Preston-7297/" target="_blank ©DraftExpress

De Sousa could be a force down low that does what Preston should be doing (controlling space, rebounding, and getting to the rim). But again, we're not sure if he'll arrive this year.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:52 pm

Preston is really talented, but appears committed to the idea that he's KD part 2.

I was blown away with his talent, but the more you watch him, the more you think he brings less to the table than he should.

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 3:45 pm

5 in the South now. ASU 1 in the West, no other P12 schools

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ration/174" target="_blank

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:24 pm

Do people think ASU will actually be a 1 seed?

TatetheGreat · Post by **TatetheGreat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:27 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:Do people think ASU will actually be a 1 seed?

ASUHATER! wrote: Re: ASU blows
Post by ASUHATER! » Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:20 pm

ASU has to be seen as the conference favorite and a final 4 team as of now. 1 seed.

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:35 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:Do people think ASU will actually be a 1 seed?

ASUHATER! wrote:ASU looking like a 1 or 2 seed

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:42 pm

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:47 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:

Agreed UAE....we are about to expose ASU soon BUT with how weak the P12 looks now, they might end up Top 3 in the conference......and then Hurley will bolt for another gig....just hope he doesn’t take Alford’s spot at UCLA.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:54 pm

Nowhere did I predict that ASU would be a 1 seed. Yawn.

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 9:56 pm

Does anyone care to predict how many P12 Teams make the tourney now? Also the final top 4-5 rankings by the end of P12 play? I can’t recall the last time it was so unclear by this time of year.

I predict only 3 P12 Teams make the NCAAs. UA, ASU and UW.......and these teams end up in that same ranking at the end of P12 play. If we get 4 teams in its because something crazy happened in the P12 Tourney IMHO.

KaibabKat · Post by **KaibabKat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:07 pm

Bangkok Wildcat wrote:Does anyone care to predict how many P12 Teams make the tourney now? Also the final top 4-5 rankings by the end of P12 play? I can’t recall the last time it was so unclear by this time of year.

I predict only 3 P12 Teams make the NCAAs. UA, ASU and UW.......and these teams end up in that same ranking at the end of P12 play. If we get 4 teams in its because something crazy happened in the P12 Tourney IMHO.

If bids went out today: Arizona is a 4 seed; ASU is a 5; Oregon is an 11 or 12; and, USC is a 12 or 13. UCLA and Utah are just on the wrong side of the bubble and probably NIT bound. Washington and/or Colorado may be able to get to a buy in tournament. For everyone else there is always next year.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:14 pm

How is ASU a 5-seed if bids were determined today?

KaibabKat · Post by **KaibabKat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:24 pm

For the past several years I've used an average of KenPom, Sagarin and RPI Forecast to predict who makes the tournament and where they will be seeded. It has turned out to be quite accurate. Right now ASU is 29 in KenPom, 15 in Sagarin and 10 in RPIF. That is an average of 18 which translates to a 5 seed.

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:30 pm

KaibabKat wrote:
Bangkok Wildcat wrote:Does anyone care to predict how many P12 Teams make the tourney now? Also the final top 4-5 rankings by the end of P12 play? I can’t recall the last time it was so unclear by this time of year.

I predict only 3 P12 Teams make the NCAAs. UA, ASU and UW.......and these teams end up in that same ranking at the end of P12 play. If we get 4 teams in its because something crazy happened in the P12 Tourney IMHO.
If bids went out today: Arizona is a 4 seed; ASU is a 5; Oregon is an 11 or 12; and, USC is a 12 or 13. UCLA and Utah are just on the wrong side of the bubble and probably NIT bound. Washington and/or Colorado may be able to get to a buy in tournament. For everyone else there is always next year.

Wow, actual seeding predictions too KaibabKat? Impressive. So basically you have UA,ASU, ORE, and USC in the tourney and ending up the P12 Season in that order.

I don’t think Oregon will make it....USC needs to start getting its act together now in order to make it and they have the talent to do it....so good call there. I just have this feeling that UW is a sleeper....going into KC and beating Kansas is a huge noncon win for them....if they have a decent conference record I think they will make it.

I just don’t think Oregon is good enough this year....Why do you think Oregon will make it? They don’t have any good noncon wins that I see.....

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:33 pm

KaibabKat wrote:For the past several years I've used an average of KenPom, Sagarin and RPI Forecast to predict who makes the tournament and where they will be seeded. It has turned out to be quite accurate. Right now ASU is 29 in KenPom, 15 in Sagarin and 10 in RPIF. That is an average of 18 which translates to a 5 seed.

I can see how full season results would mirror those rankings, but an undefeated top-3 team getting a 5 seed would be totally and rightly laughable.

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:33 pm

KaibabKat wrote:For the past several years I've used an average of KenPom, Sagarin and RPI Forecast to predict who makes the tournament and where they will be seeded. It has turned out to be quite accurate. Right now ASU is 29 in KenPom, 15 in Sagarin and 10 in RPIF. That is an average of 18 which translates to a 5 seed.

Using logic and stats to backup your claim vs my eyeballing it??? How foolish, lol. Interesting KK.

KaibabKat · Post by **KaibabKat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:37 pm

Bangkok Wildcat wrote: I just don’t think Oregon is good enough this year....Why do you think Oregon will make it? They don’t have any good noncon wins that I see.....

Right now Oregon is: 49 in KenPom; 41 in Sagarin; 44 in RPIF; 50 in ESPN BPI and 44 in the Massey Composite. Average of the first three is 45 which translates to an 11 or 12 seed.

KaibabKat · Post by **KaibabKat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:39 pm

Chicat wrote:
KaibabKat wrote:For the past several years I've used an average of KenPom, Sagarin and RPI Forecast to predict who makes the tournament and where they will be seeded. It has turned out to be quite accurate. Right now ASU is 29 in KenPom, 15 in Sagarin and 10 in RPIF. That is an average of 18 which translates to a 5 seed.
I can see how full season results would mirror those rankings, but an undefeated top-3 team getting a 5 seed would be totally and rightly laughable.

Whatever floats your boat.

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:53 pm

KaibabKat wrote:
Bangkok Wildcat wrote: I just don’t think Oregon is good enough this year....Why do you think Oregon will make it? They don’t have any good noncon wins that I see.....
Right now Oregon is: 49 in KenPom; 41 in Sagarin; 44 in RPIF; 50 in ESPN BPI and 44 in the Massey Composite. Average of the first three is 45 which translates to an 11 or 12 seed.

Interesting analysis Kk, thanks.....let’s see how this plays out. I admit that even though I think Oregon doesn’t make it, I’m nervous to play them on their homecourt after the last time.....ughhh. Bear Down KaibabKat.

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:47 pm

Jefe wrote:5 in the South now. ASU 1 in the West, no other P12 schools

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ration/174" target="_blank

4 in the East before the ASU win. USC and UCLA in now. Next update Thursday

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:46 pm

Why do I have this weird feeling we will meet Xavier in Tourney this year yet again?

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:50 pm

Xavier, Wisconsin, Gonzaga and San Diego State will all be in our region

SunnyAZ · Post by **SunnyAZ** » Tue Jan 02, 2018 8:20 pm

even tho Kansas plays small, I don't think they are particularly good at guarding small ball

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:07 am

SunnyAZ wrote:even tho Kansas plays small, I don't think they are particularly good at guarding small ball

Kansas just isn't playing well right now. Small or large.

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:58 am

ASUs last week at #1. We moved to #4 in the Midwest, back in San Diego. UCLA still, USC out, Utah first four out

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:39 am

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

#4 Midwest
Asu #2 in the West

Rooting for asu to do well besides beating Arizona = dumb

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:48 am

Can we get that #1 seed back? Or do we need another top 4 team with 3 losses?

I need to book this San Diego trip soon if so

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:13 pm

RondaeShimmy wrote:https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

#4 Midwest
Asu #2 in the West

Rooting for asu to do well besides beating Arizona = dumb

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:18 pm

https://www.facebook.com/CBBonFOX/video ... MNO7WBInds" target="_blank

prh · Post by **prh** » Fri Jan 05, 2018 9:21 pm

Jefe wrote:Can we get that #1 seed back? Or do we need another top 4 team with 3 losses?

I need to book this San Diego trip soon if so

As long as we’re a top 4 seed, we’ll be in San Diego. I think that’s a pretty safe bet

Statfreak77 · Post by **Statfreak77** » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:12 am

Jefe wrote:Can we get that #1 seed back? Or do we need another top 4 team with 3 losses?

I need to book this San Diego trip soon if so

Absolutely. I don't know why people are denying this.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:34 am

Statfreak77 wrote:
Jefe wrote:Can we get that #1 seed back? Or do we need another top 4 team with 3 losses?

I need to book this San Diego trip soon if so
Absolutely. I don't know why people are denying this.

The teams that would be good enough for a 4 seed or better that would play in SD are asu and UA. Only other close ones are Gonzaga but they will likely play in Idaho. The Texas schools will play in Texas or Kansas

More than a 75% chance of UA playing in SD I would say

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:03 am

#5 seed in the west with Duke the #1 seed in the west

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:14 pm

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:44 pm

RondaeShimmy wrote:#5 seed in the west with Duke the #1 seed in the west

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

history repeating itself, love it

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:15 am

RondaeShimmy wrote:#5 seed in the west with Duke the #1 seed in the west

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

http://espn.com/ncb/bracketology?iterat ... &year=2018" target="_blank

Same but Arizona is now a #4 and possible 4/5 matchup is vs #5 seed Kentucky, Duke still the #1

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:27 am

Conference power rankings according to BPI

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... ording-bpi" target="_blank

For our purposes, we believe the definition involves objective analytics, avoiding any inherent biases or perceptions about the leagues. Using the Basketball Power Index and ESPN's other analytic tools, we used a hybrid approach to equally weigh three metrics and evaluate the strength of each conference, and we subsequently ranked the leagues from No. 1 to 32.

Average conference BPI: The average BPI rating for each team in the conference.

Top quartile conference BPI: This is a proxy for how good the conference is at the top by taking the average BPI of the top half of each conference and seeing where that compares to the other conferences.

Projected Sweet 16 teams: ESPN's 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season using BPI allow for an objective look at how many teams, on average, a conference will send to the Sweet 16. Sometimes a good conference has bad luck (see ACC, 2017), while in other years a conference exceeds expectations.

7. Pac-12

Avg. BPI rank: 7th
Top-quartile BPI rank: 6th
Projected Sweet 16 rank: 8th

Before the season, I made the bold prediction that the Pac-12 and the WCC would both get three teams in the NCAA tournament. Halfway through the season, the WCC getting as many as three teams in appears very unlikely, but the Pac-12 getting only three appears more and more likely. BPI expects only 2.8 Pac-12 teams on average to be selected by the committee after the rest of the regular season plays out. Arizona and Arizona State seem to be headed to play in the NCAA tournament, while USC, UCLA and Oregon have a lot of work to do. None ranks better than 49th in Strength of Record or BPI.

scumdevils86 · Post by **scumdevils86** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:09 pm

the pac is awful. even if we did finish with only 1 or 2 losses overall this season i could see us being shit on by the committee and given a 2 or 3 seed.

thanks larry scott. the pac 12 is turning more and more into the WAC or MWC every year.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:13 pm

Don't worry about having a #2 seed and 2 #3 seeds last year. Totally Larry Scott's fault. His fault for the FBI investigation too right?

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:21 pm

PHXCATS wrote:Don't worry about having a #2 seed and 2 #3 seeds last year. Totally Larry Scott's fault. His fault for the FBI investigation too right?

Why do you defend Scott so much? Of course there are factors beyond his control, but national profile of a conference matters, and he does little to nothing to enhance the Pac's national profile. Plus, that exact duty is a huge component of his job.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:28 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
PHXCATS wrote:Don't worry about having a #2 seed and 2 #3 seeds last year. Totally Larry Scott's fault. His fault for the FBI investigation too right?
Why do you defend Scott so much? Of course there are factors beyond his control, but national profile of a conference matters, and he does little to nothing to enhance the Pac's national profile. Plus, that exact duty is a huge component of his job.

I hate Larry Scott, he is awful at his job. Absolutely awful. But to have people blame him for everything that doesn't go Arizona's way is beyond stupid. It isn't his fault that U of A lost 3 games in a row. It isnt his fault it took Oregon a little longer to get going. It isnt his fault that USC and UA are mentioned in a FBI investigation. Does he deserve credit for asu being better this year?

CatHoops · Post by **CatHoops** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:57 pm

UofA will be a 2-3 seed in San Diego nothing wrong with that a 1 seed doesn't guarantee anything

scumdevils86 · Post by **scumdevils86** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:01 pm

PHXCATS wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:
PHXCATS wrote:Don't worry about having a #2 seed and 2 #3 seeds last year. Totally Larry Scott's fault. His fault for the FBI investigation too right?
Why do you defend Scott so much? Of course there are factors beyond his control, but national profile of a conference matters, and he does little to nothing to enhance the Pac's national profile. Plus, that exact duty is a huge component of his job.
I hate Larry Scott, he is awful at his job. Absolutely awful. But to have people blame him for everything that doesn't go Arizona's way is beyond stupid. It isn't his fault that U of A lost 3 games in a row. It isnt his fault it took Oregon a little longer to get going. It isnt his fault that USC and UA are mentioned in a FBI investigation. Does he deserve credit for asu being better this year?

If you actually hate him then try and criticize him and stop defending him at every turn you dolt.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:01 pm

CatHoops wrote:UofA will be a 2-3 seed in San Diego nothing wrong with that a 1 seed doesn't guarantee anything

Good point. Just get a seed 3 or above in the West and get it done.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:00 pm

Nova and MSU are a bit scary. The rest of the field: I'd love our chances in March.

CatHoops · Post by **CatHoops** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:21 am

Jerry palm with CBS has 5 pac12 teams in today

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:27 am

They did this last year but it's just not as big as the CFB playoffs rankings - just as stupid though

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