Thee Pac2 Network

[UAEebs86]

Thanks Merkin/UAE/Rg!

UAE, i have ATT uverse now. Do you like DirectTV? Have you tried Sling?

I am happy with the DirecTV Now 80+ channel package - it gets me 95% of the channels my wife and I watch.
Just wish I would have gotten in on the $35/120+ channel package the offered initially, but it's gone now.

I tried Sling and PS Vue before DirecTV Now. The $25 discount AT&T is giving me for DirecTV Now is just too good to pass up - I only pay $25/month including free HBO. The downside is I have to find streaming links for Pac-12 Network, which I have been able to do so far.

They all have free trial periods, so you can try them all out.

Pac-12 Network is available on Sling, CenturyLink, and fuboTV I believe.

[baycat93]

Again Thanks.

Had to upgrade my phone today and talked to them about DTVnow. I was in a hurry but think i can get HBO free and a really good discount since I already spend so much on my cell. $20 on the 80 channel. going to go back in next week.

Thanks ... looking forward to this.

[UAEebs86]

Again Thanks.

Had to upgrade my phone today and talked to them about DTVnow. I was in a hurry but think i can get HBO free and a really good discount since I already spend so much on my cell. $20 on the 80 channel. going to go back in next week.

Thanks ... looking forward to this.

I read somewhere they knocked the discount down to $15 (I think that's what you got), but I'm grandfathered at $25 (for now).

[Timmy1973]

To all of you experts, I am seriously considering cutting the cord. thank you all for the above and in advance of further help.

If I get the sling service, what hardware do I need and does that get me the normal ABC/NBC/CBS channels?

Again THANKS!

I used the tvfool site to see where the transmitters were located, & determined I needed a long range multi-directional antenna. Installed a mohu air on my roof without the amplifier and backfeed the signal into the disconnected from cable rg-11 lines for two televisions. Got the AirTV box with its OTA adapter for $50 from sling, and bought a second one and used the $50 sling programming credit on that one. With the grid guide, integrated OTA guide, and cloud dvr, it competes well against the Comcast setup I had previously.

[Merkin]

[PHXCATS]

Sell the SF studio space and move it to LV, PHX, Tucson, SLC.

[TatetheGreat]

I haven't looked into it much, but why can't UA just create its own network like UT? I believe the Longhorn Network partners with ESPN for big games.

[YoDeFoe]

I haven't looked into it much, but why can't UA just create its own network like UT? I believe the Longhorn Network partners with ESPN for big games.

We don't garner that large of an audience.

[PHXCATS]

I haven't looked into it much, but why can't UA just create its own network like UT? I believe the Longhorn Network partners with ESPN for big games.

No one outside of Arizona would buy it

[TatetheGreat]

I can't find any recent numbers, but in 2014, P12 Network gave basically equal payouts to each school. We couldn't get more than $20M/year running our own network with local/regional advertising, a big network partnership, online subscriptions, and no revenue splits?

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespo ... -and-more/" target="_blank

[PHXCATS]

I can't find any recent numbers, but in 2014, P12 Network gave basically equal payouts to each school. We couldn't get more than $20M/year running our own network with local/regional advertising, a big network partnership, online subscriptions, and no revenue splits?

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegespo ... -and-more/" target="_blank

Absolutely not. Would absolutely lose a ton of money

[YoDeFoe]

Sell the SF studio space and move it to LV, PHX, Tucson, SLC.

They lease the space on a ten year deal that expires in 2023 - so they've got that 100,000sf of space locked in at, generously, $5,000,000/yr for the next five years. They'd have to pay a termination fee to break that lease (though it is likely substantially below market at this point so the empty space in a tight market would be worth more than their occupancy to the owner, Kilroy, but that's besides the point - P12N has a financial obligation).

Anyways - without that long-term lease obligation you're absolutely right. They're paying literally double what they could be paying in PHX or Vegas or SLC in comparable Class A space.

NBC Sports leases similar space in the same building as the Pac-12 Network - so maybe there's some "we need to be here" about it (for talent retention) or some agglomeration economies (increases in productivity or reductions in cost to locating near other players in an industry). But likely its just where the top guy wanted to be so that's where they located.

Which is straight up stupid because they're paying TWICE AS MUCH as they need to be paying and now cutting jobs over it.

[excuse the deep dive, this is what I do for a living]

[BBQ wildcat]

Sell the SF studio space and move it to LV, PHX, Tucson, SLC.

They lease the space on a ten year deal that expires in 2023 - so they've got that 100,000sf of space locked in at, generously, $5,000,000/yr for the next five years. They'd have to pay a termination fee to break that lease (though it is likely substantially below market at this point so the empty space in a tight market would be worth more than their occupancy to the owner, Kilroy, but that's besides the point - P12N has a financial obligation).

Anyways - without that long-term lease obligation you're absolutely right. They're paying literally double what they could be paying in PHX or Vegas or SLC in comparable Class A space.

NBC Sports leases similar space in the same building as the Pac-12 Network - so maybe there's some "we need to be here" about it (for talent retention) or some agglomeration economies (increases in productivity or reductions in cost to locating near other players in an industry). But likely its just where the top guy wanted to be so that's where they located.

Which is straight up stupid because they're paying TWICE AS MUCH as they need to be paying and now cutting jobs over it.

[excuse the deep dive, this is what I do for a living]

If it is a tight market, wouldn't they be able to sublet the space? And they could sublet at lower than current prices to make it very attractive for someone.

[YoDeFoe]

If it is a tight market, wouldn't they be able to sublet the space? And they could sublet at lower than current prices to make it very attractive for someone.

That's a good call - they could sublet the space, with restrictions dependent on their lease. The rub there:

1) They might still have to leave money on the table in order to do so, because while their space is below market on the coupon, they're not including tenant improvement dollars that on a five year deal would total something like $5.0 - $6.5M. So they could save $12.5M in rent over the next five years but they'd have to spend $5.0M today to get it.

2) There's no certainty in when they could relet the space. So they could go months or years paying both their new rent (in PHX or SLC or wherever) and their existing rent.

3) ...because they have 100,000sf of space on large floor plates. It's a pretty specific type of space that requires a large user to take down (even to take down half of it) and those users... well they're more likely to just go direct instead of sublet. That way they get their own lease that doesn't tie them to the previous tenant and they get to negotiate their own terms with the landlord (including that tenant improvement allowance).

I think if it was you or me making the call... we could swallow the risk and take the leap hoping that someone snaps up that space off the sublet market. Even cutting a check for improvements that you know you'd make up down the road. But for the Pac-12 Network? I don't think their decision makers, who aren't commercial real estate professionals, would be willing to sign on for that ride.

I'll yield the forum back to Arizona basketball discussion now.

[UAEebs86]

How fast do they think we drive?

[scumdevils86]

Kinda don't blame the dude...

The finance manager of an Illinois car dealership has been accused of pretending to be a Lake Delton restaurant employee in phone calls with a cable company.

His aim, police say, was to change the restaurant’s cable package so he could watch a basketball game when he visited the area for the weekend.

Sauk County prosecutors have charged 51-year-old Kevin M. Cayton of Arlington Heights, Illinois, with felony identity theft for financial gain and unauthorized use of an entity’s identifying information. Each charge carries a maximum six-year prison sentence.

Lake Delton police began investigating in February after the business manager at Buffalo Phil’s noticed a significant increase in the restaurant’s cable bill and contacted authorities, according to the criminal complaint.

The officer eventually obtained 11 phone calls that were recorded by the cable provider, Charter Spectrum, in December.

In the calls, a man who identified himself as Pat Barkley asked to add the Pac-12 channel to the restaurant’s cable package. He mentioned wanting to watch an Arizona Wildcats basketball game later that week.

In one of the recordings, the caller allegedly stepped away from the phone and spoke with someone else in the background, saying “Hey it’s Kevin.” In another call, police say, someone can be overheard purchasing a vehicle in the background and explaining that they work a second job at a health care facility in Illinois.

The officer called the health care facility and asked if they had an employee who recently bought a car. The facility put the officer in touch with a female employee, who said she recently purchased a vehicle at the Howard Buick-GMC dealership in Elmhurst, Illinois.

Through social media, the officer learned that Cayton was a finance manager at the dealership, and the only employee named “Kevin.” The officer also contacted Lake Delton hotels, and found that Cayton had checked in at one of them in late December.

Social media posts also helped establish Cayton’s visit to Lake Delton in late December, police say, and that he is an Arizona Wildcats fan.

Officers later traveled to Illinois to visit Cayton’s workplace, the complaint states, but he declined to speak with them. They followed up with a co-worker to ask about Cayton’s demeanor after they left.

The co-worker “said that Kevin made a comment that he knows who gave him the user name and password and that he had done nothing wrong,” the complaint states. “Kevin also said the only thing he did was use someone else’s name.”

Cayton has been booked and released on a $2,000 signature bond. He is due to appear in Sauk County Circuit Court on July 31.

[Chicat]

Not all heroes wear capes.

[UAEebs86]

#goodfan

[Spaceman Spiff]

Larry Scott's business model is so poor people are literally having to resort to criminal behavior to watch games.

[catgrad97]

Yeah, right. That lawbreaker needs to fall into line with the company line: call his cable provider and pray like all the real conference fans from two decades ago.

[PHXCATS]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

[ASUHATER!]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

People dont show up to Arizona basketball games?

[CalStateTempe]

Is this why we haven’t heard from longhorned?

I kid I kid.

[prh]

It's not like we've led the conference in attendance for 34 straight years. Fans really need to step up

[ChooChooCat]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

Just do yourself a favor and start your own walk of shame for this crap or at the very least say something like you "thought you were on the football board."

[Spaceman Spiff]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

We have constant sellouts and have led the conference in attendance from the beginning of McKale.

Pac 12 must be really bad because you've apparently missed all our games and you're only in Phoenix.

[PHXCATS]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

Just do yourself a favor and start your own walk of shame for this crap or at the very least say something like you "thought you were on the football board."

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

We have constant sellouts and have led the conference in attendance from the beginning of McKale.

Pac 12 must be really bad because you've apparently missed all our games and you're only in Phoenix.

Trust me I know we lead to conference in attendance in Men's basketball every year despite not making a final four in almost two decades. The team and the AD post all the defection tweets about it after U of A is bounced in the tournament. It was a general comment on Arizona Athletics overall not specific to the men's basketball team. If we had half the passion for football as men's basketball and softball U of A would have been to a rose bowl by now and would have much better recruits coming in every year. The Network covers all U of A sports not just men's basketball thus the reason for my comment. Sorry for any confusion.

[prh]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

Just do yourself a favor and start your own walk of shame for this crap or at the very least say something like you "thought you were on the football board."

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

We have constant sellouts and have led the conference in attendance from the beginning of McKale.

Pac 12 must be really bad because you've apparently missed all our games and you're only in Phoenix.

Trust me I know we lead to conference in attendance in Men's basketball every year despite not making a final four in almost two decades. The team and the AD post all the defection tweets about it after U of A is bounced in the tournament. It was a general comment on Arizona Athletics overall not specific to the men's basketball team. If we had half the passion for football as men's basketball and softball U of A would have been to a rose bowl by now and would have much better recruits coming in every year. The Network covers all U of A sports not just men's basketball thus the reason for my comment. Sorry for any confusion.

Try again, better luck next time

[Chicat]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

Just do yourself a favor and start your own walk of shame for this crap or at the very least say something like you "thought you were on the football board."

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

We have constant sellouts and have led the conference in attendance from the beginning of McKale.

Pac 12 must be really bad because you've apparently missed all our games and you're only in Phoenix.

Trust me I know we lead to conference in attendance in Men's basketball every year despite not making a final four in almost two decades. The team and the AD post all the defection tweets about it after U of A is bounced in the tournament. It was a general comment on Arizona Athletics overall not specific to the men's basketball team. If we had half the passion for football as men's basketball and softball U of A would have been to a rose bowl by now and would have much better recruits coming in every year. The Network covers all U of A sports not just men's basketball thus the reason for my comment. Sorry for any confusion.

I genuinely feel sorry for you.

[ASUHATER!]

Literally the only argument you need to nuke any of machina's statements on fans or attendance to Oblivion is "Arizona basketball".

Winning is key and life. If you build it, they will come. Provide for the fans, win, and make them excited to come and Arizona football will sell out pretty much every game. Don't do those things and they will find better ways to spend their time and money. The onus is 10000% on the program and athletic department.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

Just do yourself a favor and start your own walk of shame for this crap or at the very least say something like you "thought you were on the football board."

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

We have constant sellouts and have led the conference in attendance from the beginning of McKale.

Pac 12 must be really bad because you've apparently missed all our games and you're only in Phoenix.

Trust me I know we lead to conference in attendance in Men's basketball every year despite not making a final four in almost two decades. The team and the AD post all the defection tweets about it after U of A is bounced in the tournament. It was a general comment on Arizona Athletics overall not specific to the men's basketball team. If we had half the passion for football as men's basketball and softball U of A would have been to a rose bowl by now and would have much better recruits coming in every year. The Network covers all U of A sports not just men's basketball thus the reason for my comment. Sorry for any confusion.

It's gonna be hard for softball to make the Rose Bowl regardless of the fan support.

[scumdevils86]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

Just do yourself a favor and start your own walk of shame for this crap or at the very least say something like you "thought you were on the football board."

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

We have constant sellouts and have led the conference in attendance from the beginning of McKale.

Pac 12 must be really bad because you've apparently missed all our games and you're only in Phoenix.

Trust me I know we lead to conference in attendance in Men's basketball every year despite not making a final four in almost two decades. The team and the AD post all the defection tweets about it after U of A is bounced in the tournament. It was a general comment on Arizona Athletics overall not specific to the men's basketball team. If we had half the passion for football as men's basketball and softball U of A would have been to a rose bowl by now and would have much better recruits coming in every year. The Network covers all U of A sports not just men's basketball thus the reason for my comment. Sorry for any confusion.

It's gonna be hard for softball to make the Rose Bowl regardless of the fan support.

this went exactly as I expected from Machina.

[PHXCATS]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

Just do yourself a favor and start your own walk of shame for this crap or at the very least say something like you "thought you were on the football board."

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

We have constant sellouts and have led the conference in attendance from the beginning of McKale.

Pac 12 must be really bad because you've apparently missed all our games and you're only in Phoenix.

Trust me I know we lead to conference in attendance in Men's basketball every year despite not making a final four in almost two decades. The team and the AD post all the defection tweets about it after U of A is bounced in the tournament. It was a general comment on Arizona Athletics overall not specific to the men's basketball team. If we had half the passion for football as men's basketball and softball U of A would have been to a rose bowl by now and would have much better recruits coming in every year. The Network covers all U of A sports not just men's basketball thus the reason for my comment. Sorry for any confusion.

Try again, better luck next time

How so? We have bad fans. Plan and simple. Over 1 Million people in the Tucson area and we cant get 50K to a football game after a few thousand come from Phoenix and out of town for every game. Good players want to play in front of packed stadiums. They dont want to play in front of empty seats. Bad fans, on top of poor NFL history, are major hurdles the staff needs to overcome to get guys to play here. Getting more fans to not be fair weather and to be dedicated fans, more money can be spent on the other programs and on stadium upgrades and other things to get the team to be even better. U of A has been really close to the Rose Bowl a few times, you honestly dont think a few more 4 star guys on those teams doesnt push U of A over that edge?

[UAdevil]

Keep this stupid argument of yours on the football board Machina.

[prh]

Your idiotic take amounted to basketball-level fan support guarantees success
Your same idiotic take said basketball hasn't had success

Saying fan support guarantees a Rose Bowl also dictates that basketball wins a couple titles

Swapping cause and effect is dumber than most arguments to make

[azgreg]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

Just do yourself a favor and start your own walk of shame for this crap or at the very least say something like you "thought you were on the football board."

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

We have constant sellouts and have led the conference in attendance from the beginning of McKale.

Pac 12 must be really bad because you've apparently missed all our games and you're only in Phoenix.

Trust me I know we lead to conference in attendance in Men's basketball every year despite not making a final four in almost two decades. The team and the AD post all the defection tweets about it after U of A is bounced in the tournament. It was a general comment on Arizona Athletics overall not specific to the men's basketball team. If we had half the passion for football as men's basketball and softball U of A would have been to a rose bowl by now and would have much better recruits coming in every year. The Network covers all U of A sports not just men's basketball thus the reason for my comment. Sorry for any confusion.

It's gonna be hard for softball to make the Rose Bowl regardless of the fan support.

It just takes the right goal keeper.

[CatFanOneMil]

Now that is dedication. Some guy breaks the law to try to watch U of A games in IL. Meanwhile in Tucson no one can bother to show up to the games.

Fuck you and the hearse you rode in on, it takes a special kind of stupid to post something this dumb on a UA basketball thread...you are officially blocked.

[Merkin]

[UAEebs86]

Fire his ass

[ASUHATER!]

So he's saying they've given up long ago on getting their channel on any platforms really until 2024. May take 12 years after its founding to get the network on most platforms. It's already been 6 years and you still can only get the network on Dish, Sling TV and in some specific Cox and Comcast markets, mostly just in the West.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Sitting around, twiddling our thumbs with a failing model until 2024 that is killing our conference's national profile. Right where we want to be...

[BBQ wildcat]

When will the PAC-12 presidents wake up and fire this imbecile?

[PHXCATS]

I get what Scott is saying, that they will not have to answer to ESPN or Fox when they do their next round of broadcast rights. The problem is though is that PAC-12 has the worst network and the worst ratings and the worst fanbases compared to the other power 5 conferences. The SEC would be the one that should have done everything on their own, but they were smart enough to see what a failure Scott is as well as how much of a failure the PAC12 Networks are, so they gave a percentage of their network to ESPN to run things. Smart. As I said years ago when others said I was wrong, the thing Scott needed to do was to get on Directv and let Cox and Dish pay less per subscriber. The added ad revenue and exposure and subscribers would have made it so worth it. But Scott was so sure of himself and wrongfully so that that bridge cant be crossed anymore. Terrible. Larry Scott you suck.

[Olsondogg]

Meanwhile:

[Merkin]

ESPN lost 500k subscribers in April. People like me who cut the cord.

When will the PAC-12 presidents wake up and fire this imbecile?

I recall reading the Cal president is very upset with Scott. Cal has that awful stadium financing deal and they really need the PAC money to help pay for it.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I get what Scott is saying, that they will not have to answer to ESPN or Fox when they do their next round of broadcast rights. The problem is though is that PAC-12 has the worst network and the worst ratings and the worst fanbases compared to the other power 5 conferences. The SEC would be the one that should have done everything on their own, but they were smart enough to see what a failure Scott is as well as how much of a failure the PAC12 Networks are, so they gave a percentage of their network to ESPN to run things. Smart. As I said years ago when others said I was wrong, the thing Scott needed to do was to get on Directv and let Cox and Dish pay less per subscriber. The added ad revenue and exposure and subscribers would have made it so worth it. But Scott was so sure of himself and wrongfully so that that bridge cant be crossed anymore. Terrible. Larry Scott you suck.

Scott is saying we'll be free to explore all options. Which, for Scott usually means he'll be able to have 10 avenues to fail instead of 5.

[PHXCATS]

ESPN lost 500k subscribers in April. People like me who cut the cord.

When will the PAC-12 presidents wake up and fire this imbecile?

I recall reading the Cal president is very upset with Scott. Cal has that awful stadium financing deal and they really need the PAC money to help pay for it.

What he says is the truth. The next round for broadcast rights is going to go way down in terms of dollars for each school. ESPN and Fox wont be able to pay as much. And Hulu, Google and Netflix already make tons of money in their other core businesses, not live sports broadcasting. What that means is that they will not risk losing their nestegg to bring in live sports, which means their bids wont be that high. All the more reason why attendance matters so much.

[EVCat]

What he says is the truth. The next round for broadcast rights is going to go way down in terms of dollars for each school. ESPN and Fox wont be able to pay as much. And Hulu, Google and Netflix already make tons of money in their other core businesses, not live sports broadcasting. What that means is that they will not risk losing their nestegg to bring in live sports, which means their bids wont be that high. All the more reason why attendance matters so much.

There's just enough truth sprinkled into the patently false to make that seem reasonable.

There is a reason sports franchises are worth more than ever, and rising at a nearly absurd rate...advertising eyeballs.

While there was some overreach in the first round of league network contracts and sports contracts in general, it has more to do with an adjustment of how we view ratings and share than anything else. Commercials were effective tools before DVRs, and even more so before VCRs. You had a captured audience. Now...who watches a show when it airs? Not many, unless they are just guide-surfing and watching a bunch of different shows, still skipping the commercials.

So pay services with content have done well, but they are oversaturating the market with product. As long as subscribers keep coming back, who cares, I guess. But, like a restaurant with too many items, what happens is nothing is done well. We may be approaching that as more and more companies jump into content providing.

But the one live air item you can count on for eyeballs is sports. Some people DVR and zap through, but most enjoy the shared experience of watching live. And what we now know is it really isn't about the sheer number of eyeballs, but about brand recognition, viewer connection with ads, and how much the owner of the eyeballs is paying attention. That is something that is far more prevalent with sports viewers than general content viewers. We have to adjust the concept of ratings/share and come up with a new standard for absorption or effectiveness. Sports deliver, but those who have to spend the dollar have ample opportunity to use the outdated rating/share model to push for cheaper ad time. Like the FICO/Credit Score model that was developed to predict unsecured credit repayment being used for homes and cars, the ratings/share model is a square peg in a round hole. It was too much for creditors to custom score (most tried) on credit because of fair lending laws.

No such limitation exists within the ad world. So...the first company to property predict effectiveness of audience and weight the score with a modicum of documented success will run the ad rate world. In the meantime, the ad buyers were over-exuberant, and now are pushing back, in part to make up for their loss of effectiveness everywhere else.

But sports still provide brand-savvy and attentive eyeballs. The attendance at games will continue to shrink, and, frankly...no one is going to care as long as media rights cover the freight. Stadiums will get smaller and smaller with more and more amenities to capture high paying attendees, much like music promotion. Many will be priced out of the smaller, luxurious stadiums, but be able to watch games in between 4.5 minute ad holes.

[PHXCATS]

What he says is the truth. The next round for broadcast rights is going to go way down in terms of dollars for each school. ESPN and Fox wont be able to pay as much. And Hulu, Google and Netflix already make tons of money in their other core businesses, not live sports broadcasting. What that means is that they will not risk losing their nestegg to bring in live sports, which means their bids wont be that high. All the more reason why attendance matters so much.

There's just enough truth sprinkled into the patently false to make that seem reasonable.

There is a reason sports franchises are worth more than ever, and rising at a nearly absurd rate...advertising eyeballs.

While there was some overreach in the first round of league network contracts and sports contracts in general, it has more to do with an adjustment of how we view ratings and share than anything else. Commercials were effective tools before DVRs, and even more so before VCRs. You had a captured audience. Now...who watches a show when it airs? Not many, unless they are just guide-surfing and watching a bunch of different shows, still skipping the commercials.

So pay services with content have done well, but they are oversaturating the market with product. As long as subscribers keep coming back, who cares, I guess. But, like a restaurant with too many items, what happens is nothing is done well. We may be approaching that as more and more companies jump into content providing.

But the one live air item you can count on for eyeballs is sports. Some people DVR and zap through, but most enjoy the shared experience of watching live. And what we now know is it really isn't about the sheer number of eyeballs, but about brand recognition, viewer connection with ads, and how much the owner of the eyeballs is paying attention. That is something that is far more prevalent with sports viewers than general content viewers. We have to adjust the concept of ratings/share and come up with a new standard for absorption or effectiveness. Sports deliver, but those who have to spend the dollar have ample opportunity to use the outdated rating/share model to push for cheaper ad time. Like the FICO/Credit Score model that was developed to predict unsecured credit repayment being used for homes and cars, the ratings/share model is a square peg in a round hole. It was too much for creditors to custom score (most tried) on credit because of fair lending laws.

No such limitation exists within the ad world. So...the first company to property predict effectiveness of audience and weight the score with a modicum of documented success will run the ad rate world. In the meantime, the ad buyers were over-exuberant, and now are pushing back, in part to make up for their loss of effectiveness everywhere else.

But sports still provide brand-savvy and attentive eyeballs. The attendance at games will continue to shrink, and, frankly...no one is going to care as long as media rights cover the freight. Stadiums will get smaller and smaller with more and more amenities to capture high paying attendees, much like music promotion. Many will be priced out of the smaller, luxurious stadiums, but be able to watch games in between 4.5 minute ad holes.

Nothing you have said is false but it has not factored in how ESPN has lost so many subscribers. How the hell is ESPN going to offer that much for the broadcast rights when they have lost 120 Million plus in subscribership revenue and cash flow PER MONTH since the last time the PAC-12 and ESPN negotiated the broadcast rights. ESPN cant offer as much as they could before, do you think Fox will offer more when they dont have the competition?

[catgrad97]

Not if ESPN's parent company (Zip-a-dee-Disney!) BUYS Fox.