Official Bracketology Thread

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:21 am

two more ranked teams lose last night -- long, long way to go before these seeds will be determined.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:47 am

97cats wrote:two more ranked teams lose last night -- long, long way to go before these seeds will be determined.

So true. I've been thinking that a 2 seed is probably our ceiling (probably still is), but who the hell knows? If we run the table, #1 in the West is probably in play. That said, there's no way we're running the table.

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:37 am

Apparently the selection committee is actually going to use BPI, Sargarin, Kenpom etc instead of just RPi (or just a composite/average of them which is pretty much the Massey composite) this year.

Massey composite here

http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm" target="_blank

As of 1/22

Arizona is a composite #17 - and the individual rankings of some the most known rankings

* Kenpom: 22

* Sargarin: 12

* BPI: 20

* RPI: 16

That would likely put Arizona at around 4/5 seed currently

If the selection committee relies on the RPI again, Arizona is likely to end up as 12-16 most likely in the RPI forecast - 4/5 seed. Link below.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Arizona.html" target="_blank

Of all the current mock brackets currently, Arizona is an average of 4.48 seed. Link below.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com" target="_blank

Last year Kenpom, Sargarin, RPI, BPI were not fans of Arizona but Arizona beat UCLA, Oregon in the Pac 12 tournament and jumped to #2 seed.

Last year iirc Arizona was ranked in the low 20s across the board in the analytical rankings, until that tournament run. If they didn't win those games they would've stayed as a 3-4.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:51 am

97cats wrote:two more ranked teams lose last night -- long, long way to go before these seeds will be determined.

As always this.

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:04 pm

2 weeks in row with an AZ/Duke S16 matchup. Do it

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:23 pm

Jefe wrote:2 weeks in row with an AZ/Duke S16 matchup. Do it

Co-sign.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:01 pm

Ayton vs. Bagley in the S16...would be one for the ages.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:55 pm

And two more top ten go down tonight, unfortunately one of them was west Virginia. Sons of jayhens Kansas looking good to 14peat. Bloody jayvultures, sit around and watch their conference kill itself and then swoop in and get the pickings.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:45 am

For better or worse, our path to a Pac title isn't as treacherous as that in the ACC, Big 12, or Big 10. Teams ranked in the top 10-15 are going to keep losing, while our toughest remaining reg season games are the Oregon road trip and @ASU. USC should challenge us too. Even if we lose two of these four games, that puts us at 25-6 for the season, with the Pac tourney still to play. A 4 seed does seem most likely at this point, but a 3 wouldn't be so surprising. To get a 2, we'd need to win out.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:55 am

Nova is the only team that will lose fewer games than us from here on out. That's my prediction, for entertainment purposes only.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:06 am

U.P. Zona Fan wrote:Nova is the only team that will lose fewer games than us from here on out. That's my prediction, for entertainment purposes only.

Until the NCAA, I think two more losses is a realistic expectation (at Washington, at Oregon, USC, PAC-12 Title game are the toughest ones remaining). That should be good enough for a #2 or #3 in the West

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:35 am

Just booked my flight to the Oregon game. We better not lose that one.

Siempre Verde · Post by **Siempre Verde** » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:09 am

CalStateTempe wrote:Just booked my flight to the Oregon game. We better not lose that one.

May your experience be much more delightful than my trip there last year. I’d barely sat down (in the last row of that blasted arena) before the annihilation began. Meh. I swear there was a homing device in the game ball. The shots falling were unreal.

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:20 am

Jefe wrote:2 weeks in row with an AZ/Duke S16 matchup. Do it

4 weeks now. ASU now a 7 seed, USC 10 and Washington first four out

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:38 pm

I'll continue to say: this shouldn't be a thing. Mock brackets before the last five games of conference play are fucking ridiculous. And if they somehow generate momentum that flows into the actual brackets they're even worse, because these are designed SOLELY for clicks.

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:28 am

#3 in the west, Duke is #2 seed and Kansas is the #1

http://www.espn.com/ncb/bracketology" target="_blank

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:53 am

RondaeShimmy wrote:#3 in the west, Duke is #2 seed and Kansas is the #1

http://www.espn.com/ncb/bracketology" target="_blank

It sort of stuns me KU is regarded as a 1. We just need to keep winning the games in front of us.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:13 am

i would take that bracket in a New York second

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:17 am

That’s a fun road

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:17 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
RondaeShimmy wrote:#3 in the west, Duke is #2 seed and Kansas is the #1

http://www.espn.com/ncb/bracketology" target="_blank
It sort of stuns me KU is regarded as a 1. We just need to keep winning the games in front of us.

I love that bracket except for Duke in the S16

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:42 am

Duke is essentially Arizona guys. They are the same team.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:43 am

Olsondogg wrote:Duke is essentially Arizona guys. They are the same team.

Hey, I wouldn't want to play us. Especially if we were us.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 10:45 am

Provided their Ristic isn't bombing threes, I'm good.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:23 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
RondaeShimmy wrote:#3 in the west, Duke is #2 seed and Kansas is the #1

http://www.espn.com/ncb/bracketology" target="_blank
It sort of stuns me KU is regarded as a 1. We just need to keep winning the games in front of us.

Please give me a region where we have to play through Kansas as the top seed. Please oh please.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:28 am

Rose colored fan boy here...but if Arizona wins out till tourney, whats preventing a 1 seed?

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:29 am

Kansas as a 1 makes very little sense. Let's see how they do in the back half of their league schedule. Big 12 is brutal this year.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:30 am

Olsondogg wrote:Rose colored fan boy here...but if Arizona wins out till tourney, whats preventing a 1 seed?

Lack of quality wins? Weak ass conference?

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:32 am

Arizona would have one solitary loss since November. Would have won conference reg and tourney. I don't see how that wouldn't be a 1 seed.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:33 am

Beachcat97 wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:Rose colored fan boy here...but if Arizona wins out till tourney, whats preventing a 1 seed?
Lack of quality wins? Weak ass conference?

Yep. We have zero wins against the Kenpom top 25 and no opportunities remaining to get wins in that group. B1G, BXII, BE, and ACC teams with three or more of those wins with more to play.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:37 am

Is the committee using Kenpom?

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:38 am

Olsondogg wrote:Rose colored fan boy here...but if Arizona wins out till tourney, whats preventing a 1 seed?

Nothing, but how does 99adj D affect how far we want to go?

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:39 am

Furthermore ASU is at 28 on kenpom, Texas A&M at 36, USC at 48. Not the strongest resume, but there will be definite changes.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:39 am

CalStateTempe wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:Rose colored fan boy here...but if Arizona wins out till tourney, whats preventing a 1 seed?
Nothing, but how does 99adj D affect how far we want to go?

How did a #3?

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:39 am

YoDeFoe wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:Rose colored fan boy here...but if Arizona wins out till tourney, whats preventing a 1 seed?
Lack of quality wins? Weak ass conference?
Yep. We have zero wins against the Kenpom top 25 and no opportunities remaining to get wins in that group. B1G, BXII, BE, and ACC teams with three or more of those wins with more to play.

The 2 seed in the West is still possible. Not the 1. The teams ahead of U of A are too far ahead that even running the table in all likelihood wont be enough

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:40 am

Olsondogg wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:Rose colored fan boy here...but if Arizona wins out till tourney, whats preventing a 1 seed?
Nothing, but how does 99adj D affect how far we want to go?
How did a #3?

At least you’re consistent in your inconsistency.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:42 am

I’ll root like hell for this team, but I do see middle of the road defense as a liability.

Will have to compare to duke unc and Kansas adj D to determine how much of a liability.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:42 am

I just like that the defensive problems are the source of concern nowadays. Back in the day post after post was lamenting the offense as the reason why Arizona would falter in tournament.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:43 am

IMO Purdue is in the catbird seat right now.

That s a solid TEAM

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:44 am

CalStateTempe wrote:IMO Purdue is in the catbird seat right now.

That s a solid TEAM

That struggled against Indiana until the last couple of minutes and has yet to play MSU or Ohio State.

I agree they are solid, but there is alot of season to be played

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:49 am

Olsondogg wrote:I just like that the defensive problems are the source of concern nowadays. Back in the day post after post was lamenting the offense as the reason why Arizona would falter in tournament.

I mean isn't it completely possible for this year's team to be a very good offensive team and an absolute crap defensive team, while in the past our team's defense was much better than our offense, hence why criticisms were reverse. Crazy leap of logic involved there I know...

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 11:57 am

YoDeFoe wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:Rose colored fan boy here...but if Arizona wins out till tourney, whats preventing a 1 seed?
Lack of quality wins? Weak ass conference?
Yep. We have zero wins against the Kenpom top 25 and no opportunities remaining to get wins in that group. B1G, BXII, BE, and ACC teams with three or more of those wins with more to play.

This is why I don't get people who root against UCLA and other Pac schools and say we don't really need a strong Pac. Quality wins and tests help.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:06 pm

ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:I just like that the defensive problems are the source of concern nowadays. Back in the day post after post was lamenting the offense as the reason why Arizona would falter in tournament.
I mean isn't it completely possible for this year's team to be a very good offensive team and an absolute crap defensive team, while in the past our team's defense was much better than our offense, hence why criticisms were reverse. Crazy leap of logic involved there I know...

2015 is calling.

Furthermore so is 2014.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:09 pm

Olsondogg wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:I just like that the defensive problems are the source of concern nowadays. Back in the day post after post was lamenting the offense as the reason why Arizona would falter in tournament.
I mean isn't it completely possible for this year's team to be a very good offensive team and an absolute crap defensive team, while in the past our team's defense was much better than our offense, hence why criticisms were reverse. Crazy leap of logic involved there I know...
2015 is calling.

Furthermore so is 2014.

2015 was certainly our best year. 2014 the offense lacked after Ashley went down and the metrics reflected as much hence being #1 in defense efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:11 pm

ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:I just like that the defensive problems are the source of concern nowadays. Back in the day post after post was lamenting the offense as the reason why Arizona would falter in tournament.
I mean isn't it completely possible for this year's team to be a very good offensive team and an absolute crap defensive team, while in the past our team's defense was much better than our offense, hence why criticisms were reverse. Crazy leap of logic involved there I know...
2015 is calling.

Furthermore so is 2014.
2015 was certainly our best year. 2014 the offense lacked after Ashley went down and the metrics reflected as much hence being #1 in defense efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

2014 is pre/post Ashley injury. Pre, our best team ever. Post, significant offensive issues that dropped the AdjO significantly.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:12 pm

ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:I just like that the defensive problems are the source of concern nowadays. Back in the day post after post was lamenting the offense as the reason why Arizona would falter in tournament.
I mean isn't it completely possible for this year's team to be a very good offensive team and an absolute crap defensive team, while in the past our team's defense was much better than our offense, hence why criticisms were reverse. Crazy leap of logic involved there I know...
2015 is calling.

Furthermore so is 2014.
2015 was certainly our best year. 2014 the offense lacked after Ashley went down and the metrics reflected as much hence being #1 in defense efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.

Right, but Rawle being injured for majority of this season is being discounted.

We can play games with metrics when it suits us, guys.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:13 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:I just like that the defensive problems are the source of concern nowadays. Back in the day post after post was lamenting the offense as the reason why Arizona would falter in tournament.
I mean isn't it completely possible for this year's team to be a very good offensive team and an absolute crap defensive team, while in the past our team's defense was much better than our offense, hence why criticisms were reverse. Crazy leap of logic involved there I know...
2015 is calling.

Furthermore so is 2014.
2015 was certainly our best year. 2014 the offense lacked after Ashley went down and the metrics reflected as much hence being #1 in defense efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.
2014 is pre/post Ashley injury. Pre, our best team ever. Post, significant offensive issues that dropped the AdjO significantly.

Yep and any criticisms about the offense after that Ashley injury, which is likely when said criticisms occurred were certainly warranted.

It's ok to point out where our weaknesses are especially when they're blatant i.e. our defense this year.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:15 pm

Olsondogg wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:I just like that the defensive problems are the source of concern nowadays. Back in the day post after post was lamenting the offense as the reason why Arizona would falter in tournament.
I mean isn't it completely possible for this year's team to be a very good offensive team and an absolute crap defensive team, while in the past our team's defense was much better than our offense, hence why criticisms were reverse. Crazy leap of logic involved there I know...
2015 is calling.

Furthermore so is 2014.
2015 was certainly our best year. 2014 the offense lacked after Ashley went down and the metrics reflected as much hence being #1 in defense efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.
Right, but Rawle being injured for majority of this season is being discounted.

We can play games with metrics when it suits us, guys.

So your take is Rawle makes that much of a difference defensively for this team even though we have a 10 game stretch of evidence that doesn't suggest that at all?

We can tell fairy tales with fabrications when it suits us as well, guys.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:15 pm

Defense is an issue this year, not discounting that at all. However, I am not yet concerned as much as others with what has been dealt with this year--especially not in January.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:18 pm

ChooChooCat wrote:
So your take is Rawle makes that much of a difference defensively for this team even though we have a 10 game stretch of evidence that doesn't suggest that at all.

We can tell fairy tales with fabrications when it suits us as well, guys.

No, I'm saying that having a valuable starter out in and out of a lineup affects the team. I don't know how you can point to the past as an example and discount that fact in the present.

Is defense an issue versus prior years? Absolutely...this is a poor defensive team under Miller's system. I just don't share the collective freak out that his happening.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Mon Jan 29, 2018 12:22 pm

PHXCATS wrote:
The 2 seed in the West is still possible. Not the 1. The teams ahead of U of A are too far ahead that even running the table in all likelihood wont be enough

this is just so stupid - there are multiple top ten losses every week and its still January.

i dont think it will happen, in fact i think Arizona has two more losses left in them, but if for some stroke of luck AZ won its last 12 games, they would finish the season 30-4 winning 27 of their last 28 with one loss coming when the team was at full strength.

there is 100% chance, without a doubt on this planet, that in this scenario, as outright regular season and conf tournament champs, AZ would be the #1 Seed - WEST Region.

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