Official Bracketology Thread

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:12 am

PHXCATS wrote:3 in the West on the 2nd most accurate site over the last 5 years in terms of seeding projections

That would be a good draw.

Give us duke at 2 and Kansas at 1 and call it a day.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:15 am

CalStateTempe wrote:
PHXCATS wrote:3 in the West on the 2nd most accurate site over the last 5 years in terms of seeding projections
That would be a good draw.

Give us duke at 2 and Kansas at 1 and call it a day.

Half that is what Mandel is projecting right now

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:26 am

We still got some work left to earn a 3 seed. We’re facing a desperate Oregon team this week. If we go 4-0 to finish the reg season, then yeah, I think we get a 3, regardless of Pac tourney performance.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:33 am

Beachcat97 wrote:We still got some work left to earn a 3 seed. We’re facing a desperate Oregon team this week. If we go 4-0 to finish the reg season, then yeah, I think we get a 3, regardless of Pac tourney performance.

While U of A lacks quality wins at the top, I dont think this is an accurate statement. Tournament starts today I think UA is the 3 in the West. Unless you mean every single team has work left to do to earn their projected seed.

scumdevils86 · Post by **scumdevils86** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:33 am

like I said, sweep on the road this week and we are going to be a 3 in a lot of predictions. take care of business at home next week and we are cemented as a 3 seed. win the pac 12 tourney and we could maybe bump up to a 2.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:11 am

scumdevils86 wrote:like I said, sweep on the road this week and we are going to be a 3 in a lot of predictions. take care of business at home next week and we are cemented as a 3 seed. win the pac 12 tourney and we could maybe bump up to a 2.

Agree completely. If we drop one this week, our path to a 3 seed gets a little harder. Think we’d need to reach the Pac tourney final.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:52 pm

There's really too much basketball to be played to forecast "do such and such and we're definitely a ____ seed." Not just too much played by us, but everyone else as well.

If the "current" crop of 3 seeds win out and we do too... are we cemented as a 3 seed? Why? What's the argument that winning four games against teams averaging outside the top 100 will "cement" a higher seed than we currently have? None of those are Quadrant 1 wins. None of those are even tournament teams!

It's not even convincing to me that those four wins would cement our status as a four seed - again, those aren't resume wins. If another program, like say 5 seeded West Virginia won out they'd add THREE additional Q1 wins to their resume. Would it be possible those wins would do enough to vault them into a four seed? And might we be the one to suffer as a result?

...unlikely we drop a spot in seeding if we win out, of course, but all of this is an assumption posited on another assumption while ignoring the myriad of possibilities around us. Which a long way of reiterating: there's a lot of ball to play still.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:53 pm

7 potential games left in the season before the NCAAs and people want to project, that's fine.

There is a ton of basketball left to be played. Just win the damn games, and stay healthy.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:01 pm

Olsondogg wrote:7 potential games left in the season before the NCAAs and people want to project, that's fine.

There is a ton of basketball left to be played. Just win the damn games, and stay healthy.

I know, I should let people have their projections and quit the "get off my lawn / bracketology is a conference tournament thing" shtick.

Instead I'll just offer some final thoughts:

Win and we don't drop. Win in the conference tournament and we can add up to three Q1 wins to our resume... which would be huge. That assumes ASU gets the 8 seed and we play them in the first, then either of Utah or Washington in the second and either of USC or UCLA in the final.

Other teams competing for seeding can do the same... but only six power teams are going into the tournament on a win streak.

Defend our spot for the remainder of the regular season. Take all we can get in the conference tournament.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:08 pm

YoDeFoe wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:7 potential games left in the season before the NCAAs and people want to project, that's fine.

There is a ton of basketball left to be played. Just win the damn games, and stay healthy.
I know, I should let people have their projections and quit the "get off my lawn / bracketology is a conference tournament thing" shtick.

Instead I'll just offer some final thoughts:

Win and we don't drop. Win in the conference tournament and we can add up to three Q1 wins to our resume... which would be huge. That assumes ASU gets the 8 seed and we play them in the first, then either of Utah or Washington in the second and either of USC or UCLA in the final.

Other teams competing for seeding can do the same... but only six power teams are going into the tournament on a win streak.

Defend our spot for the remainder of the regular season. Take all we can get in the conference tournament.

FWIW, I feel the same. We'll make the tourney. I care that we make the tourney ready to do what needs to be done in consistency and D. If we get there and lose one or two, I'm happier with that vs a hypothetical undefeated run where we struggle and back our way into it.

Of course, the habits we need to flash should lead to a good record the rest of the way.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:12 pm

Let me actually clarify what I want: Stay Healthy.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:59 pm

Lunardi has as his first 4 out, ucla, usc, Washington, Penn st. Yay Pac 12!!!

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:37 pm

U.P. Zona Fan wrote:Lunardi has as his first 4 out, ucla, usc, Washington, Penn st. Yay Pac 12!!!

Very likely that all three of those Pac teams get in.

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:38 pm

U.P. Zona Fan wrote:Lunardi has as his first 4 out, ucla, usc, Washington, Penn st. Yay Pac 12!!!

I don't know how the Committee can have UCLA "out." Yes, I do believe in the "eye test." And if I'm a committee member, I DO VALUE wins after January 1st more than a win in November. The way college basketball is structured with talent turnover, so many teams are acclimating themselves in the first two months.

Veteran teams have a huge advantage early in the season as they face programs that are integrating fresh faces and really trying to discover what they have. And Arizona is a big part of that as well. Alex Barcello hasn't sniffed the floor since Pullman. Yet he played key minutes in the Bahamas. Same for Brandon Randolph. And that's just once example because we follow Arizona so closely. Other teams dealt with the same scenario to a lesser degree. The flip side of that coin was the performance of ASU as they ran off 12 straight wins with their veteran group of guards. Since December 30, they're a .500 team. Victories early in the season shouldn't be dismissed, but let's be real about things. How would ASU fare right now against Xavier? Or Kansas?

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:24 am

If the Wildcats continue to improve on the defensive end, why can't Arizona be one of the scariest teams out there? By Selection Sunday, Arizona will be among the top eight overall teams.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... -set-march" target="_blank

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:31 am

This team can get to the FF. On our best day, is there a team in America you’d say we still couldn’t beat? No way. When Ayton is defending, and Deuce’s short game is working, and Rawle’s threes are falling, and Trier is drawing fouls, and PJC is taking care of the ball, and our bench gives us even a little...we don’t lose. Period.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:36 am

Beachcat97 wrote:This team can get to the FF. On our best day, is there a team in America you’d say we still couldn’t beat? No way. When Ayton is defending, and Deuce’s short game is working, and Rawle’s threes are falling, and Trier is drawing fouls, and PJC is taking care of the ball, and our bench gives us even a little...we don’t lose. Period.

If this team plays defense to the best of its ability only what maybe 3 teams can beat it

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:39 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:This team can get to the FF. On our best day, is there a team in America you’d say we still couldn’t beat? No way. When Ayton is defending, and Deuce’s short game is working, and Rawle’s threes are falling, and Trier is drawing fouls, and PJC is taking care of the ball, and our bench gives us even a little...we don’t lose. Period.

This is the dream. Lord: gimme six games of that in the big dance.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:20 pm

YoDeFoe wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:This team can get to the FF. On our best day, is there a team in America you’d say we still couldn’t beat? No way. When Ayton is defending, and Deuce’s short game is working, and Rawle’s threes are falling, and Trier is drawing fouls, and PJC is taking care of the ball, and our bench gives us even a little...we don’t lose. Period.
This is the dream. Lord: gimme six games of that in the big dance.

Here's why I'm a little more optimistic this year. Our senior starters -- PJC and Ristic -- are having their best seasons at AZ. Trier is a cold-blooded killer in the open court, and he's gotten so good at getting to the line. Ayton is Ayton. I hate to put it all on Rawle, but he's been up and down this year, perhaps because he's not fully healthy. Not gonna lie: I thought we'd be getting more from Randolph and Akot off the bench, but our reserves have still managed to contribute at key moments. Smith had a great game vs. Texas A&M, for instance.

We can hang with anyone, and I've got a feeling our seniors are gonna bring it this year. Don't get too freaked out if we drop one this week, or don't win the Pac tourney. It's all about the Dance this year. Ayton's one season at AZ is going to get us back to the FF.

TatetheGreat · Post by **TatetheGreat** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:38 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:
YoDeFoe wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:This team can get to the FF. On our best day, is there a team in America you’d say we still couldn’t beat? No way. When Ayton is defending, and Deuce’s short game is working, and Rawle’s threes are falling, and Trier is drawing fouls, and PJC is taking care of the ball, and our bench gives us even a little...we don’t lose. Period.
This is the dream. Lord: gimme six games of that in the big dance.
Here's why I'm a little more optimistic this year. Our senior starters -- PJC and Ristic -- are having their best seasons at AZ. Trier is a cold-blooded killer in the open court, and he's gotten so good at getting to the line. Ayton is Ayton. I hate to put it all on Rawle, but he's been up and down this year, perhaps because he's not fully healthy. Not gonna lie: I thought we'd be getting more from Randolph and Akot off the bench, but our reserves have still managed to contribute at key moments. Smith had a great game vs. Texas A&M, for instance.

We can hang with anyone, and I've got a feeling our seniors are gonna bring it this year. Don't get too freaked out if we drop one this week, or don't win the Pac tourney. It's all about the Dance this year. Ayton's one season at AZ is going to get us back to the FF.

We've won against good offensive teams and good defensive teams but not both. I'm not expecting a FF run due to our inconsistency but it's certainly possible if we play our best basketball.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:14 pm

TatetheGreat wrote:We've won against good offensive teams and good defensive teams but not both. I'm not expecting a FF run due to our inconsistency but it's certainly possible if we play our best basketball.

But Tate, is there a team (or group of teams) you look at it and say, damn, if we face them, we're done? The top tier this year (UVA, Nova, Purdue, MSU, Xavier) is not clearly ahead of the pack. I could see any of the teams ranked 5 to 20 heating up and getting to the FF. My money is on experienced teams and good coaches this year. Who has dominant upperclassmen? Which coaches have gotten deep in the tourney?

TatetheGreat · Post by **TatetheGreat** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:23 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:
TatetheGreat wrote:We've won against good offensive teams and good defensive teams but not both. I'm not expecting a FF run due to our inconsistency but it's certainly possible if we play our best basketball.
But Tate, is there a team (or group of teams) you look at it and say, damn, if we face them, we're done? The top tier this year (UVA, Nova, Purdue, MSU, Xavier) is not clearly ahead of the pack. I could see any of the teams ranked 5 to 20 heating up and getting to the FF. My money is on experienced teams and good coaches this year. Who has dominant upperclassmen? Which coaches have gotten deep in the tourney?

No, it is definitely a weak field and I agree with your assessment. MSU and Purdue are the only balanced teams and both have a shot at the FF. I like our chances as long as Ayton is Ayton and the supporting cast rises to the occasion. Time will tell.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:03 pm

Updated after Wednesday games.

Less than 2 weeks until selection Sunday

So this list includes teams 1-20 and their W/L after 2/11 when the selection committee announced their top 16. They have been rearranged slightly based on reasonable assumptions based on this week's results.

Clemson's 3rd loss in a row moves Arizona to the 3 line currently (In my opinion) We also could be ahead of Texas Tech and Tennessee right now. A #2 is certainly a real possibility. Must sweep in Oregon.

I have officially taken Oklahoma off the list, Michigan is on

Virginia (2-0)
Villanova (2-1)
Xavier (2-1)
Kansas (3-0)

Purdue (1-1) plays Thursday
Auburn (2-1)
Duke (3-0)
Michigan St. (3-0)

North Carolina (3-0)
Texas Tech (1-2)
Tennessee (2-1)
Arizona (1-0) plays Thursday

Gonzaga (2-0) plays Thursday
Wichita St. (3-0)
Clemson (0-3)
Cincinnati (0-2) plays Thursday

West Virginia (2-1)
Rhode Island (2-1) plays Friday
Ohio State (1-2) plays Friday
Michigan

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:52 pm

Alieberman wrote:Must sweep in Oregon.

Boils down to this. Postseason begins now.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:56 pm

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:59 pm

It's insane that 2 wins from 2-3 months ago are all that is making ASU a 6 seed in current projections as opposed to not even being in the tournament.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Feb 25, 2018 11:06 am

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Mon Feb 26, 2018 6:47 pm

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 26, 2018 6:58 pm

Irish27 wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

With Trier, that West region doesn't scare me at all.

BibbysTowelDude · Post by **BibbysTowelDude** » Mon Feb 26, 2018 9:01 pm

Not that we wouldn't win but Mike Daum is the type of player that would be a nightmare for us.

Nicholls State/Virginia would be a 1/16 I'd dig watching.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:11 pm

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

prh · Post by **prh** » Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:16 pm

Irish27 wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

To save everyone from clicking through to that garbage site, here's relevant info:

1 seeds:
UVA
Nova
X
Kansas

West Region:
1. Kansas
2. UNC
3. Auburn
4. Arizona
5. Gonzaga

Highly doubtful we get Gonzaga in a 4/5, since we should be in San Diego and they should be in Boise. In this bracket, Clemson is in Boise. Seems those two would flip.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:44 pm

ALieb has totally slacked on his updates.

Guess he had something else going on in his life. Fuckin slacker.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:00 am

http://bracketmatrix.com" target="_blank

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:09 am

Olsondogg wrote:ALieb has totally slacked on his updates.

Guess he had something else going on in his life. Fuckin slacker.

The Trier and Miller thing kind of knocked the wind out of my sails.... but like them... I'm back. Will update soon!

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:21 am

Was only teasing brutha...figures that was it. Was difficult for me to watch games last week prior to Thursday.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:24 am

Olsondogg wrote:Was only teasing brutha...figures that was it. Was difficult for me to watch games last week prior to Thursday.

Oh I know. I have no idea what other teams have done in the last week.... in fact I seriously can't tell you anything that has happened in this world in past week if it doesn't involve AZ basketball

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:17 am

So this list includes teams 1-20 and their W/L after 2/11 when the selection committee issued their top 16

Results through Friday games.

I believe teams 1-8 are locked in at either 1-2 seeds. Don't see any other teams cracking the 2 line

Teams 9-18 I believe are very close.... so 3-5 seeds are still in play

Virginia (4-0) plays Saturday
Villanova (3-2) plays Saturday
Xavier (3-1) plays Saturday
Kansas (5-0) plays Saturday

Purdue (3-1) plays Saturday
Duke (4-1) plays Saturday
Michigan St. (5-0) plays Saturday
North Carolina (3-1) plays Saturday

Tennessee (4-1) plays Saturday
Gonzaga (4-0) plays Saturday
Wichita St. (5-0) plays Sunday
Arizona (3-1) plays Saturday

Auburn (2-3) plays Saturday
Clemson (2-3) plays Saturday
Cincinnati (3-2) plays Sunday
West Virginia (4-1) plays Saturday

Texas Tech (2-3) plays Saturday
Michigan (3-0). Record since adding to top 20 plays Saturday
Ohio State (2-3)
Kentucky plays Saturday

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:21 am

^^^my man!

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 1:05 am

The latest bracketology published March 3 says ASU is a 9-seed and trending up. Up? How the hell do you trend up when you've lost 4 of 5 games and your only W is against last place Cal? At home.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:46 am

This list includes teams 1-20 and their W/L after 2/11 when the selection committee issued their top 16

Results through Saturday games.

Don't see any possibility of us cracking the top 10

Teams 11-18 I believe are all very close and interchangeable .... so 3-5 seeds are still in play going into league tournaments, with a 4 seed most likely unless we win out in Vegas.

Side note- After Cinci lost 2 straight games a couple weeks ago, I moved them way down and upon re-evaluating their #s I've now now moved them back up quite a bit

Virginia (5-0)
Villanova (4-2)
Xavier (4-1)
Duke (5-1)

Purdue (4-1)
Kansas (5-1)
Tennessee (5-1)
Michigan St. (5-1)

North Carolina (3-2)
Cincinnati (3-2) plays Sunday
Gonzaga (5-0)
Wichita St. (5-0) plays Sunday

Arizona (4-1)
Auburn (3-3)
Michigan (4-0). Record since adding to top 20
Clemson (2-4)

West Virginia (4-2)
Texas Tech (3-3)
Ohio State (2-3)
Kentucky (0-1) record since adding them into top 20

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:47 pm

http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basket ... cq2ynikyoh" target="_blank

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:54 pm

Irish27 wrote:http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basket ... cq2ynikyoh

That page says Arizona is currently playing without Trier and Coach Miller.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:37 pm

We dropped from a 4 seed average to a 5 seed lm bracket matrix today.

SabinoDrifter · Post by **SabinoDrifter** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:02 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:We dropped from a 4 seed average to a 5 seed lm bracket matrix today.

I think this is the residual effect from the Oregon lost. I see a solid 4, maybe sneak in as a 3 winning the Pac tournament depending on other outcomes next week.

Regardless, there is no west coast team that would bump Arizona from San Diego. They had a huge crowd there in 2014.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:14 pm

If we win the tournament this week we should definitely be a 3 seed. Considering there are teams out there with 7-9 losses listed as 2-3 seeds on brackets, a 27-7 record with a sole conference title, tournament title and going 24-4 since the Bahamas absolutely should warrant a 3 seed.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:24 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:If we win the tournament this week we should definitely be a 3 seed. Considering there are teams out there with 7-9 losses listed as 2-3 seeds on brackets, a 27-7 record with a sole conference title, tournament title and going 24-4 since the Bahamas absolutely should warrant a 3 seed.

Our problem is a lack of Quad 1 wins. Our conference did us no favors this year.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:44 pm

SabinoDrifter wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:Regardless, there is no west coast team that would bump Arizona from San Diego. They had a huge crowd there in 2014.

Gonzaga?

SabinoDrifter · Post by **SabinoDrifter** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 4:48 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:
SabinoDrifter wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:Regardless, there is no west coast team that would bump Arizona from San Diego. They had a huge crowd there in 2014.
Gonzaga?

If they get to the 4 line, they will go to Boise.

jajoyce · Post by **jajoyce** » Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:54 pm

I am at a loss that people still think ASU is a tourney team. They are now 58 in the RPI, behind USC, UCLA, and UTAH. USC and UCLA can both make the case for some of their losses as they haven’t had a full team. Most of the “experts” has ASU in and USC/UCLA either Last in or Last out and UTAH isn’t anywhere to be seen.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... etball-rpi" target="_blank

Login • Register