Official Bracketology Thread
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- Alieberman
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
This list includes teams 1-20 and their W/L after 2/11 when the selection committee issued their top 16
Results through Sunday. Just conf tourneys to go there won't be too much movement before selection sunday
This is how I see it
Virginia (5-0)
Villanova (4-2)
Xavier (4-1)
Duke (5-1)
Kansas (5-1)
Tennessee (5-1)
Purdue (4-2)
Michigan St. (5-1)
North Carolina (3-2)
Cincinnati (4-2)
Michigan (5-0)
Gonzaga (5-0)
Arizona (4-1)
Auburn (3-3)
Clemson (2-4)
Wichita St. (5-1)
West Virginia (4-2)
Texas Tech (3-3)
Ohio State (2-3)
Kentucky (0-1)
Results through Sunday. Just conf tourneys to go there won't be too much movement before selection sunday
This is how I see it
Virginia (5-0)
Villanova (4-2)
Xavier (4-1)
Duke (5-1)
Kansas (5-1)
Tennessee (5-1)
Purdue (4-2)
Michigan St. (5-1)
North Carolina (3-2)
Cincinnati (4-2)
Michigan (5-0)
Gonzaga (5-0)
Arizona (4-1)
Auburn (3-3)
Clemson (2-4)
Wichita St. (5-1)
West Virginia (4-2)
Texas Tech (3-3)
Ohio State (2-3)
Kentucky (0-1)
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
I believe if UA wins Thursday there will be no doubt that UA will play in San Diego
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Yeah I don't see any way that the Pac12 regular champ (by 2 games) won't get their geographic preference. Plus, just looking at the records of teams since the preview, it seems like there's a huge gap between 1-13 and the rest. There's not gonna be 4 teams to jump us in conference tourneys.PHXCATS wrote:I believe if UA wins Thursday there will be no doubt that UA will play in San Diego
- Longhorned
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
All enlightened college basketball fans are awakened to the importance of seeding, region, and the predictive value of advanced stats.
The importance of Kenpom especially changed the way many of us predict the tourney.
Studies have demonstrated the importance of location for games, particularly for flight duration, time zone, and game start time.
But I don't buy any of it anymore. I think it's a based on a lot of spurious stuff. In reality, it's all just as senseless, mad, and unpredictable as it seems.
I don't care anymore where Arizona is seeded or where they play. When the goal is to survive the first two rounds and then try to win another four in row against really good teams, why should anyone care?
No path is better than any other path. No team has a good chance to win the tourney. It's all about being good, playing well, and getting lucky. None of the rest matters.
The importance of Kenpom especially changed the way many of us predict the tourney.
Studies have demonstrated the importance of location for games, particularly for flight duration, time zone, and game start time.
But I don't buy any of it anymore. I think it's a based on a lot of spurious stuff. In reality, it's all just as senseless, mad, and unpredictable as it seems.
I don't care anymore where Arizona is seeded or where they play. When the goal is to survive the first two rounds and then try to win another four in row against really good teams, why should anyone care?
No path is better than any other path. No team has a good chance to win the tourney. It's all about being good, playing well, and getting lucky. None of the rest matters.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Amen, LH. We haven’t had that extra bit of luck lately. Maybe we’re due this year. Sorta think Deandre Ayton makes his own luck.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Here's the best demonstration of tourney odds for me:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/" target="_blank
Look at the pre-tourney predictions and the highest chance of making the Final Four was 41%. That's 6 in 10 you don't make the Final Four, and that's the BEST odds. That's how all over the place this stuff is.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/" target="_blank
Look at the pre-tourney predictions and the highest chance of making the Final Four was 41%. That's 6 in 10 you don't make the Final Four, and that's the BEST odds. That's how all over the place this stuff is.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
With quadrant wins and everything being the major factor this year, kinda pointless to worry about this. Especially since the committee doesn't factor in last 10-12 games anymore. Arizona is a #4 seed lock in the West. Gonzaga is likely a #5 seed lock and will likely get placed in San Diego and be our 4/5 matchup. Kansas will likely be put #1 seed in the West since Xavier is getting the Midwest, Villanova the East and Virginia the South.
Last edited by NYCat on Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=59&start=10200#p380285" target="_blank
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Most important thing is being in the region that magically falls apart. Somehow that hasn't been the West in the last decade.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
We owe Gonzaga payback for last year at Staples. Bring it on.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
I hope Cincinnati is the 2/3 in our bracket. They are a defensive team but I think they will have no chance at Ayton or Dusan.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
I don't see how any team could watch our last games vs. Cal and Stanford and NOT zone us. It forces us to play a halfcourt game, where we've been turnover prone AF lately.SunnyAZ wrote:I hope Cincinnati is the 2/3 in our bracket. They are a defensive team but I think they will have no chance at Ayton or Dusan.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
they are the #2 adjD because their style of their defense. I doubt they have much, if any reps, playing zone d this year. And Cronin seems like the stubborn coach who will lose instead of break their style of play ala Miller and the St. Mary's coach.Beachcat97 wrote:I don't see how any team could watch our last games vs. Cal and Stanford and NOT zone us. It forces us to play a halfcourt game, where we've been turnover prone AF lately.SunnyAZ wrote:I hope Cincinnati is the 2/3 in our bracket. They are a defensive team but I think they will have no chance at Ayton or Dusan.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
When you do it well it's hard to argue you should change it. Cincy is where they are based off how well they play man. Dance with who brung you, etc.SunnyAZ wrote:they are the #2 adjD because their style of their defense. I doubt they have much, if any reps, playing zone d this year. And Cronin seems like the stubborn coach who will lose instead of break their style of play ala Miller and the St. Mary's coach.Beachcat97 wrote:I don't see how any team could watch our last games vs. Cal and Stanford and NOT zone us. It forces us to play a halfcourt game, where we've been turnover prone AF lately.SunnyAZ wrote:I hope Cincinnati is the 2/3 in our bracket. They are a defensive team but I think they will have no chance at Ayton or Dusan.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
So I was browsing YouTube and saw a video about the worst NCAA Tournament collapse of all time. I got worried...but then it wasn't us.
https://youtu.be/znMqvRjoY3Q" target="_blank
https://youtu.be/znMqvRjoY3Q" target="_blank
- ByJoveByJingle
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
It only matters to fans trying to attend the games. Buying a flight 5 days before you travel is never a recipe for success.Longhorned wrote:All enlightened college basketball fans are awakened to the importance of seeding, region, and the predictive value of advanced stats.
The importance of Kenpom especially changed the way many of us predict the tourney.
Studies have demonstrated the importance of location for games, particularly for flight duration, time zone, and game start time.
But I don't buy any of it anymore. I think it's a based on a lot of spurious stuff. In reality, it's all just as senseless, mad, and unpredictable as it seems.
I don't care anymore where Arizona is seeded or where they play. When the goal is to survive the first two rounds and then try to win another four in row against really good teams, why should anyone care?
No path is better than any other path. No team has a good chance to win the tourney. It's all about being good, playing well, and getting lucky. None of the rest matters.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
that's why I hope they are in our bracket, I don't think they have the guys capable of guarding either Ayton or Dusan, much less both. And then they switch a lot, which hopefully we would be able to take advantage of.Spaceman Spiff wrote:
When you do it well it's hard to argue you should change it. Cincy is where they are based off how well they play man. Dance with who brung you, etc.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
I doubt that we are a lock for a 4 seed. All of the projections I have seen show us as the weakest of the 4 seeds as of today.NYCat wrote:With quadrant wins and everything being the major factor this year, kinda pointless to worry about this. Especially since the committee doesn't factor in last 10-12 games anymore. Arizona is a #4 seed lock in the West. Gonzaga is likely a #5 seed lock and will likely get placed in San Diego and be our 4/5 matchup. Kansas will likely be put #1 seed in the West since Xavier is getting the Midwest, Villanova the East and Virginia the South.
The PAC12 tournament is likely a nothing to gain, everything to lose proposition for us this year. Win the first 2 and I think we cement a 4 seed. Win it and I doubt we jump over the other three 4 seeds and at least one 3 seed to get to the 3 seed line.
Lose the first or second game and we may well drop to a 5 seed.
Unfortunately, the other PAC12 teams have RPI's that reside in the gutter. We gain little or nothing by winning the tournament.
Last edited by dmjcat on Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Personally, I just want to avoid the balanced teams. Give me a good offense/bad D team to shoot it out with or a bad offense/good D team to attack and minimize our own weaknesses.SunnyAZ wrote:that's why I hope they are in our bracket, I don't think they have the guys capable of guarding either Ayton or Dusan, much less both. And then they switch a lot, which hopefully we would be able to take advantage of.Spaceman Spiff wrote:
When you do it well it's hard to argue you should change it. Cincy is where they are based off how well they play man. Dance with who brung you, etc.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
All you have to do is win games. That's the only thing to do. This idea of jumping teams etc only comes into play when teams don't win. If Arizona wins games and others do not, they will move up.
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- YoDeFoe
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Buy.NYCat wrote:With quadrant wins and everything being the major factor this year, kinda pointless to worry about this. Especially since the committee doesn't factor in last 10-12 games anymore. Arizona is a #4 seed lock in the West. Gonzaga is likely a #5 seed lock and will likely get placed in San Diego and be our 4/5 matchup. Kansas will likely be put #1 seed in the West since Xavier is getting the Midwest, Villanova the East and Virginia the South.
Kansas v Arizona would be a heck of a match-up with their big sweet shooting guards and lack of post... and our big post and lack of perimeter defense. Gonzaga is hard to get a read on because everyone they play is dogshit, but given I know their guards don't attack the basket much and I like Ayton and Ristic over Tillie and Williams.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Duke is the one single team that I want no part of. At all.
I fly like a hawk, or better yet an eagle--a seagull. I sniff suckers out like a beagle...My ego is off and running and gone, Cause I'm about the best and if you diss than that's wrong
- Longhorned
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Anything can go any way in a single game, but I think Arizona rises to the occasion on perimeter defense in a way that Kansas is unlikely to be able to make a similar adjustment to Ayton and Ristic. They're the 1-seed you want.YoDeFoe wrote:Buy.NYCat wrote:With quadrant wins and everything being the major factor this year, kinda pointless to worry about this. Especially since the committee doesn't factor in last 10-12 games anymore. Arizona is a #4 seed lock in the West. Gonzaga is likely a #5 seed lock and will likely get placed in San Diego and be our 4/5 matchup. Kansas will likely be put #1 seed in the West since Xavier is getting the Midwest, Villanova the East and Virginia the South.
Kansas v Arizona would be a heck of a match-up with their big sweet shooting guards and lack of post... and our big post and lack of perimeter defense. Gonzaga is hard to get a read on because everyone they play is dogshit, but given I know their guards don't attack the basket much and I like Ayton and Ristic over Tillie and Williams.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
USC, Utah, and UCLA provide Q1 wins if we face them. ASU, UW, CU, Stanford are Q2.dmjcat wrote: I doubt that we are a lock for a 4 seed. All of the projections I have seen show us as the weakest of the 4 seeds as of today.
The PAC12 tournament is likely a nothing to gain, everything to lose proposition for us this year. Win the first 2 and I think we cement a 4 seed. Win it and I doubt we jump over the other three 4 seeds and at least one 3 seed to get to the 3 seed line.
Lose the first or second game and we may well drop to a 5 seed.
Unfortunately, the other PAC12 teams have RPI's that reside in the gutter. We gain little or nothing by winning the tournament.
Q1 wins would do a lot for our seeding as we're only 4-3 there. So 6-3 would look a heck of a lot better, pushing us into the Xavier / Duke / Purdue / Cincy grouping.. though some of those have games to play as well.
- BE4RDOWN21
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
After this weekend, I have a bad feeling about us. I'm hoping it's what they say as far as mental fatigue with what's been going on the past two weeks, but there is no way we should have played that close to Cal. If we let ANY team in the tourney stay with us, then it could be a quick exit. This team has to be ready and PJC cannot continue his 16-15 assist to turnover ratio trend.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
For 18-22 year olds, I'm not sure mental fatigue exists. Every game is a new one.BE4RDOWN21 wrote:After this weekend, I have a bad feeling about us. I'm hoping it's what they say as far as mental fatigue with what's been going on the past two weeks, but there is no way we should have played that close to Cal. If we let ANY team in the tourney stay with us, then it could be a quick exit. This team has to be ready and PJC cannot continue his 16-15 assist to turnover ratio trend.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
We have seen some teams look flat/not in it during finals week or right before xmas, so maybe mental fatigue/preoccupation with something outside of the sidelines could be the cause.Spaceman Spiff wrote:For 18-22 year olds, I'm not sure mental fatigue exists. Every game is a new one.BE4RDOWN21 wrote:After this weekend, I have a bad feeling about us. I'm hoping it's what they say as far as mental fatigue with what's been going on the past two weeks, but there is no way we should have played that close to Cal. If we let ANY team in the tourney stay with us, then it could be a quick exit. This team has to be ready and PJC cannot continue his 16-15 assist to turnover ratio trend.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Well, when 2 of your top 4 scorers combine for 2-19 shooting, it is surprising we didn't lose. If they just shoot 40%, that is 6 more buckets, some of them 3's, so that alone would add 12-15 points to our total. Can't have them do that from here on in, though. Not sure what it was -- maybe nerves or trying too hard in their last game at McKale, maybe? I hope that is what it was.BE4RDOWN21 wrote:After this weekend, I have a bad feeling about us. I'm hoping it's what they say as far as mental fatigue with what's been going on the past two weeks, but there is no way we should have played that close to Cal. If we let ANY team in the tourney stay with us, then it could be a quick exit. This team has to be ready and PJC cannot continue his 16-15 assist to turnover ratio trend.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Fatigue, I meant in terms of an accumulated exhaustion. Lack of focus, yeah, that's very, very real. I just don't think college teams wear down from the stress of the outside factors over time as much. It's not a demanding schedule and the overall mental state of a team changes a lot.rgdeuce wrote:We have seen some teams look flat/not in it during finals week or right before xmas, so maybe mental fatigue/preoccupation with something outside of the sidelines could be the cause.Spaceman Spiff wrote:For 18-22 year olds, I'm not sure mental fatigue exists. Every game is a new one.BE4RDOWN21 wrote:After this weekend, I have a bad feeling about us. I'm hoping it's what they say as far as mental fatigue with what's been going on the past two weeks, but there is no way we should have played that close to Cal. If we let ANY team in the tourney stay with us, then it could be a quick exit. This team has to be ready and PJC cannot continue his 16-15 assist to turnover ratio trend.
We just need to get fired up and transition that into the tourney. Ayton seems to have flipped a switch, now we just need others to join him.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Trier was really struggling. He didn't even score until fairly deep in the 2nd half. Lots of open looks from 3 too.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
He had one layup and was 0-9 and 0-7 from three otherwise. If he plays normally, we'd have looked better.Beachcat97 wrote:Trier was really struggling. He didn't even score until fairly deep in the 2nd half. Lots of open looks from 3 too.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
They were good looks. Think it was just one of those daysSpaceman Spiff wrote:He had one layup and was 0-9 and 0-7 from three otherwise. If he plays normally, we'd have looked better.Beachcat97 wrote:Trier was really struggling. He didn't even score until fairly deep in the 2nd half. Lots of open looks from 3 too.
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- BBQ wildcat
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
He and Ristic both. If they both shot within shouting distance of their average, we win by 25.Spaceman Spiff wrote:He had one layup and was 0-9 and 0-7 from three otherwise. If he plays normally, we'd have looked better.Beachcat97 wrote:Trier was really struggling. He didn't even score until fairly deep in the 2nd half. Lots of open looks from 3 too.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
The two best shooters on the team couldn’t buy a shot. Can happen to anyone, and if it’s the tourney, they’re done. Happened to Kerr in the Final Four loss to Oklahoma. Painful.
Myth #12: Elite defense will save you on a cold shooting night in the tourney.
Nope. You’re done.
Myth #12: Elite defense will save you on a cold shooting night in the tourney.
Nope. You’re done.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
So true.Longhorned wrote:The two best shooters on the team couldn’t buy a shot. Can happen to anyone, and if it’s the tourney, they’re done. Happened to Kerr in the Final Four loss to Oklahoma. Painful.
Myth #12: Elite defense will save you on a cold shooting night in the tourney.
Nope. You’re done.
It really does make a FF run seem like catching lightning in a bottle. So many things have to swing in your favor. It doesn't matter how loaded your team is (ex: the many Duke and UK teams in recent years who got knocked out) or what you did up to that point. The tourney is merciless and nasty, and it will tear your heart out if you come out slow or unfocused or unaggressive.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
March Madness brings all the excitement of Christmas. But instead of a Santa bringing you presents, fate falls down your chimney and takes everything you have.Beachcat97 wrote:So true.Longhorned wrote:The two best shooters on the team couldn’t buy a shot. Can happen to anyone, and if it’s the tourney, they’re done. Happened to Kerr in the Final Four loss to Oklahoma. Painful.
Myth #12: Elite defense will save you on a cold shooting night in the tourney.
Nope. You’re done.
It really does make a FF run seem like catching lightning in a bottle. So many things have to swing in your favor. It doesn't matter how loaded your team is (ex: the many Duke and UK teams in recent years who got knocked out) or what you did up to that point. The tourney is merciless and nasty, and it will tear your heart out if you come out slow or unfocused or unaggressive.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Yeah and this right here is why given where our team is at, and that our fate in the tourney is much more up to how we play rather than what our seed is, I would hate to see it but I would really notttt mind an early exit from the Pac-12 tourney and a chance to rest for a weekBE4RDOWN21 wrote:After this weekend, I have a bad feeling about us. I'm hoping it's what they say as far as mental fatigue with what's been going on the past two weeks, but there is no way we should have played that close to Cal. If we let ANY team in the tourney stay with us, then it could be a quick exit. This team has to be ready and PJC cannot continue his 16-15 assist to turnover ratio trend.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
https://sports.yahoo.com/changes-format ... 34534.html" target="_blank
Changes to the format of the Selection Show may eliminate some of the drama
Changes to the format of the Selection Show may eliminate some of the drama
CBS Sports and Turner Sports announced Tuesday they intend to begin Sunday’s show by unveiling the 68 teams that made the NCAA tournament. Hosts Greg Gumbel and Ernie Johnson will reveal the 32 teams that secured automatic bids and the 36 recipients of at-large bids one by one in alphabetical order before moving on to releasing the brackets and the matchups.
i was going to put the ua/asu records here...but i forgot what they were.
i'll just go with fuck asu.
i'll just go with fuck asu.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Can someone tell me why, in Lunardi's most recent Bracketology, 11 seed ASU is not one of the last 4 byes, and yet 10 seeds Kansas St, St. Mary's and Providence are?
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
the bracket matrix site has asu listed anywhere from an 8 seed to not in the tournament. overall they're averaged out as being like the bottom 10 seed. if they beat colorado i think they are in no matter what as a 9-10 seed. if they lose they will literally be the most bubbly of all the bubble teams and will either be the last team in or the first team out.
i was going to put the ua/asu records here...but i forgot what they were.
i'll just go with fuck asu.
i'll just go with fuck asu.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
ProfessorFate wrote:Can someone tell me why, in Lunardi's most recent Bracketology, 11 seed ASU is not one of the last 4 byes, and yet 10 seeds Kansas St, St. Mary's and Providence are?
There is a reason why. I am not sure exactly but it has to with the conferences of the teams in the "play in" games and the conferences of the teams in their region as well as travel considerations. If you play on Tuesday in Dayton you must play Thursday in the first round. Same for Wednesday in Dayton and Friday in the first round.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
The First Four is horseshit. However, if you're going to do it they should not involve conference champs.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Asu has wins over 2 #1 seeds,
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=59&start=10200#p380285" target="_blank
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
yesNYCat wrote:Asu has wins over 2 #1 seeds,
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Kansas is one of the more undeserving #1s in recent years.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
The committee can move teams up or down a line to deal with geographic issues or early rematches. I would think that is the case, although it may not be for asu specifically.ProfessorFate wrote:Can someone tell me why, in Lunardi's most recent Bracketology, 11 seed ASU is not one of the last 4 byes, and yet 10 seeds Kansas St, St. Mary's and Providence are?
The first four is only for at large teams (disregarding the 16/16 matchups).azgreg wrote:The First Four is horseshit. However, if you're going to do it they should not involve conference champs.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
And went 8-10 in a mediocre conference since then.NYCat wrote:Asu has wins over 2 #1 seeds,
i was going to put the ua/asu records here...but i forgot what they were.
i'll just go with fuck asu.
i'll just go with fuck asu.
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
I believe the committee got rid of the last 10/12 game metric. If so, it will be interesting judging the scummies against other bubble teams, assuming they only get 1 win in Vegas. 2 wins over #1 seed vs. 8-10 in a pretty mediocre conference, with their only win(s) against Cal (and/or CU) in the last month. Doesn't really scream tournament team as of March.
I'm rooting for the latter. Would be hilarious to see all the sudden asu fans deal with the agony of their team rising to #3 in December just to crash and burn and not make the tournament.
I'm rooting for the latter. Would be hilarious to see all the sudden asu fans deal with the agony of their team rising to #3 in December just to crash and burn and not make the tournament.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
Sucks for them the Tournament didn't start on 12/29/17.NYCat wrote:Asu has wins over 2 #1 seeds,
Re: Official Bracketology Thread
4 of the 8 first four teams last year were conference champs. The first four should be for at large teams only.prh wrote:The committee can move teams up or down a line to deal with geographic issues or early rematches. I would think that is the case, although it may not be for asu specifically.ProfessorFate wrote:Can someone tell me why, in Lunardi's most recent Bracketology, 11 seed ASU is not one of the last 4 byes, and yet 10 seeds Kansas St, St. Mary's and Providence are?The first four is only for at large teams (disregarding the 16/16 matchups).azgreg wrote:The First Four is horseshit. However, if you're going to do it they should not involve conference champs.
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Re: Official Bracketology Thread
those turds in Tempe would be an interesting case if they were to lose today...