let's talk '18

[Newportcat]

Any know how good Luther is?

I went back and watched Pitt play vs. West Virginia this past season in order to get a feel for what Luther can bring to the table and how he plays. This is a bit of a limited scouting report, but I thought this provided the best insight into what he might look like against good athletes, a quality defense, and multiple schemes.

WVU used Luther to help combat WVU's full-court pressure. He was a big part of the press break, even bringing the ball up the floor multiple times.

Looks decent with the ball in his hands. Comfortable initiating, albeit not creating off the bounce. Has good vision and looks to be a willing passer, keeps continuity.

Doesn’t have a strong base, not quick laterally, but will stay engaged and play with effort. Not physical or strong. Plays with a bit of finesse and fundamentals.

Solid looking jumper, decent release, ok footwork.

Hands don’t look great. Not going to be a threat as a dive man.

Active defensively on the help side, in the correct position, rotating early to get there. However, dont see him playing C unless by necessity. Hes not stopping anyone at the rim, hes going to have to 3/4 against big guys in the post, and doubt he can hold his ground. Looks a bit more fluid on the perimeter, but think hes going to have ups and downs defensively. Again, good news is he will defend with effort and can diagnose where to be/what to do help side.

Pitt ran a form of drop coverage against high ball screens. Meaning, he would drop under his man setting the screen until the guard was able to get over the screen and cut off penetration. He can hedge, but doesn’t have great lateral quickness or athleticism to stick with guards. Our guards will need to get around the screens immediately so he can slide him back to his man before he loses position. However, did a good job talking, and calling out the ball screen coverages for his guards.

Doesn’t sit down in a stance defensively, plays upright and a bit rigid. However, he looks for his man when the shot goes up and puts a body on them.

Adds an element we don’t have from our bigs, as he can play on the perimeter, hit some outside shots, understands his role, plays to his strengths, stays engaged, knows where to be and what to do. Looks like he has a good basketball IQ, as he knows when the fill and replace on the perimeter, how to keep spacing. His passing and cross court skips will be well received. He will fill that role of the high post passer against zones.

Overall, I think he is a solid fit. Again, he provides the shooting and passing we dont have from a true big. He will have issues defensively, but not as bad as some of the defense we have seen the past few years. Although that isnt saying much. Hes a good pick up, someone I bet Miller will trust, will know his role, will be a good teammate, has a good bball IQ, and will be a solid player at a position of need.

I mean a simple yes he is good would have been fine....honestly this might be the most well articulated and thought out answer to a question I have asked ever. Great stuff and seems like a good fit for us

[Spaceman Spiff]

What I'm starting to like about '18 is that we'll be good enough to play games that matter even if we don't make a significant tourney run. In that vein, we'll get our players important experience, and then we return (hopefully) everyone but Luther and maybe a grad transfer PG.

'19 then is stacked with a lot of experienced upperclassmen who've been battle tested to whom we can hopefully add a few good recruits. For the level of damage we've seen, it is not a half bad scenario.

[zonagrad]

What I'm starting to like about '18 is that we'll be good enough to play games that matter even if we don't make a significant tourney run. In that vein, we'll get our players important experience, and then we return (hopefully) everyone but Luther and maybe a grad transfer PG.

'19 then is stacked with a lot of experienced upperclassmen who've been battle tested to whom we can hopefully add a few good recruits. For the level of damage we've seen, it is not a half bad scenario.

It's all contingent on how much our young guys improve. All of the freshmen have an enormous opportunity at their feet. They're all talented but also very raw. Now's the time to start polishing their individual skills. Hopefully they're hard at work in the gym getting stronger and following the staff's evaluations and work out plans to improve. We could easily be a surprise team next year (and it wouldn't surprise me).

[Alieberman]

I think an important key to '18 is the fact that none of our freshman decided to jump ship and transfer.

That is huge. As much as they disappointed at times their frosh year, I expect all of them to be big contributors next year.

[baycat93]

I think an important key to '18 is the fact that none of our freshman decided to jump ship and transfer.

That is huge. As much as they disappointed at times their frosh year, I expect all of them to be big contributors next year.

Such a great point. It seems we have at least one transfer every year. To have none under the circumstances of the past 2 months is pretty impressive work by CSM.

[ASUHATER!]

I think an important key to '18 is the fact that none of our freshman decided to jump ship and transfer.

That is huge. As much as they disappointed at times their frosh year, I expect all of them to be big contributors next year.

yet. still over 3 weeks til the school year is done.

[Merkin]

One seems pretty happy.

[Spaceman Spiff]

One seems pretty happy.

[YoDeFoe]

Loving the attitude out of Luther:

“It’s going to be my fifth year and hopefully I can bring experience and leadership and skill and versatility at the four position,” Luther told 247Sports. “They have a great core of guys. I think it was a good match.”

Exactly what we need and it sounds like he's prepared to be a team player.

[zonagrad]

I think an important key to '18 is the fact that none of our freshman decided to jump ship and transfer.

That is huge. As much as they disappointed at times their frosh year, I expect all of them to be big contributors next year.

yet. still over 3 weeks til the school year is done.

Always a ray of sunshine for Mr. Glass half empty.

[ASUHATER!]

I think an important key to '18 is the fact that none of our freshman decided to jump ship and transfer.

That is huge. As much as they disappointed at times their frosh year, I expect all of them to be big contributors next year.

yet. still over 3 weeks til the school year is done.

Always a ray of sunshine for Mr. Glass half empty.

just being realistic. can't go around proclaiming something as true that is not provable for several more months.

[PHXCATS]

I think an important key to '18 is the fact that none of our freshman decided to jump ship and transfer.

That is huge. As much as they disappointed at times their frosh year, I expect all of them to be big contributors next year.

yet. still over 3 weeks til the school year is done.

Always a ray of sunshine for Mr. Glass half empty.

just being realistic. can't go around proclaiming something as true that is not provable for several more months.

[Newportcat]

I think an important key to '18 is the fact that none of our freshman decided to jump ship and transfer.

That is huge. As much as they disappointed at times their frosh year, I expect all of them to be big contributors next year.

I agree but would say I would find it really funny/stupid if any of our guys transferred. I feel like 99% of time people transfer from Arizona due to a lack or projected lack of playing time. Right now all 6 guys could be staring at major playing time next year. Could change with more recruits but that seems doubtful to me. I guess what I am trying to say is I am not surprised at all no one has transferred.

[YoDeFoe]

I'm concerned about a log jam at SG, for sure.

We've already got three guys fighting for SG minutes, not counting Barcello who played very well off guard in high school.

Add Zach Johnson and that's two guys not playing this year, barring injury, and at least one of those guys will be a returning player.

That's the reality of the SG position right now.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I'm concerned about a log jam at SG, for sure.

We've already got three guys fighting for SG minutes, not counting Barcello who played very well off guard in high school.

Add Zach Johnson and that's two guys not playing this year, barring injury, and at least one of those guys will be a returning player.

That's the reality of the SG position right now.

Right now I see it as Akot, Randolph and Smith being more or less guaranteed decent minutes unless Barcello makes a huge leap or Doutrive is very ready.

Frankly, Barcello needs to become PG only. That is his value position. Guys like Doutrive and Thielemans are decent prospects, but neither is good enough where they get minutes based on anything other than Randolp, Smith or Akot disappointing.

[YoDeFoe]

We've got nine guys right now... we could use a PG and a C. We're covered everywhere else.

PG: Barcello / ???

SG: Smith / Randolph / Doutrive

SF: Akot / Omar

PF: Lee / Luther

C: Jeter / ???

All of those guys can play up one position from where I slotted them, if needed. If we miss on Brandon Williams, I'd be okay rolling out Akot and Barcello at point.

I said I'd shut up but I can't help myself: I really don't want us taking either of Johnson or Coleman, as we I'd rather lose games and develop the SGs we have over taking the one year of Johnson at starting SG... and Coleman is very much a poor man's PJC.

[YoDeFoe]

Right now I see it as Akot, Randolph and Smith being more or less guaranteed decent minutes unless Barcello makes a huge leap or Doutrive is very ready.

Frankly, Barcello needs to become PG only. That is his value position. Guys like Doutrive and Thielemans are decent prospects, but neither is good enough where they get minutes based on anything other than Randolp, Smith or Akot disappointing.

I'm okay sitting Doutrive and I'm sure he'll be okay getting minimal minutes in his first season. Same with Thielmans.

But if we take Johnson - one of Randolph and Smith will see a significant reduction in minutes and that doesn't sit well with me at all.

[ChooChooCat]

Right now I see it as Akot, Randolph and Smith being more or less guaranteed decent minutes unless Barcello makes a huge leap or Doutrive is very ready.

Frankly, Barcello needs to become PG only. That is his value position. Guys like Doutrive and Thielemans are decent prospects, but neither is good enough where they get minutes based on anything other than Randolp, Smith or Akot disappointing.

I'm okay sitting Doutrive and I'm sure he'll be okay getting minimal minutes in his first season. Same with Thielmans.

But if we take Johnson - one of Randolph and Smith will see a significant reduction in minutes and that doesn't sit well with me at all.

Smith seeing a significant reduction in minutes doesn't hurt my feelings at all. Randolph on the other hand...

[ChooChooCat]

and Coleman is very much a poor man's PJC.

Based on what exactly? Hell I have an easy argument that PJC is a poor man's Coleman.

[YoDeFoe]

Smith seeing a significant reduction in minutes doesn't hurt my feelings at all. Randolph on the other hand...

Was actually thinking that as well.

[goslingswagg]

I'm concerned about a log jam at SG, for sure.

We've already got three guys fighting for SG minutes, not counting Barcello who played very well off guard in high school.

Add Zach Johnson and that's two guys not playing this year, barring injury, and at least one of those guys will be a returning player.

That's the reality of the SG position right now.

I don't think you can delineate the SG/SF positions. They are interchangeable, and I think we have 5 guys for those spots - Randolph, Doutrive, Smith, Akot, Thielemans. IMO, Akot should be playing decent mins at the 4 next year, and Thielemans may not be an impact guy year one. This is how I see our rotation playing out assuming Coleman is the only new commit before the season (but Coleman could be interchangeable with Zach Johnson/Bwill):

PG: Coleman - 30; Barcello - 10
SG: Randolph - 20; Doutrive - 15; Barcello - 5
SF: Akot - 15; Smith - 15; Randolph - 5; Thielemans - 5
PF: Luther - 15; Akot - 15; Lee - 10
C: Jeter - 30; Luther - 10

[EVCat]

I think an important key to '18 is the fact that none of our freshman decided to jump ship and transfer.

That is huge. As much as they disappointed at times their frosh year, I expect all of them to be big contributors next year.

yet. still over 3 weeks til the school year is done.

Always a ray of sunshine for Mr. Glass half empty.

just being realistic. can't go around proclaiming something as true that is not provable for several more months.

Fair...but the rumor mill would be pretty active, I think.

I truly believe those inside the program have a good feel for what is going to, and more importantly, not going to happen. And if your options are to sit a year and go to a lesser school because you didn't exactly ball out here last year, or stick around and get a unique opportunity to play in front of this crowd and be an upperclassman who stuck it out if things get rolling again? I think staying is an attractive option.

Anyone who transfers now is walking away from a legit shot at starter minutes into another year of working hard in practice but not playing. If there are actual fears of major sanctions against the program, I think they would be declaring their intent to transfer immediately in order to be part of other school's 2018/19 recruiting class evaluation, rather than scrambling to find openings in June.

[YoDeFoe]

and Coleman is very much a poor man's PJC.

Based on what exactly?

Basically the exact same shooting splits and scoring style, with PJC being a 5 percentage point better three point shooter and Coleman being a 5 percentage point better finisher at the rim and at the line.

Same size, both 5'10" 170lbs.

Both posted about .90 points per possession scoring and 1.4ppp scoring + assists, both with ~2.4 A:TO. Similar offensive rating (Coleman v PJC). Coleman was a higher usage offensive player, for what its worth.

But oh boy - defensive rating.

PJC held opponents to a decent 0.869ppp, good for about 50th percentile. Coleman gave up 1.051ppp - which is in the bottom 10% of players in division 1 basketball. In man to man defensive sets, Coleman ranked in the bottom 5%.

All of the above is with PJC playing for Arizona with a top 50 strength of schedule and Coleman playing for Samford - just outside the top 200 in SOS.

Samford was one of the worst defensive teams in the country last year (346th of 351) and defense is a team effort. But when Coleman was isolated, he ranked in the bottom 4%. When Coleman was tasked with defending catch and shoot jumpers, he ranked in the bottom 15%. Those are individual defensive plays.

So he's PJC on offense and probably a shadow of PJC on defense. Is that the solution we're looking for?

[YoDeFoe]

Synergy offensive stats here.

[ChooChooCat]

So to sum it up Coleman is better in the P&R, Isolation, and Hand off. They both suck in transition i.e. they're both short, and Parker was a better spot up shooter (the only thing he ever did good on offense). As far as defense goes Samford obviously gave zero shits about playing any, so I don't take it too seriously. Regardless our defense is in the hands of our wings and that goes for even if we land Williams. If the wings can't play D effectively then we're screwed already, so I couldn't care less about his defense at a program who had zero interest in playing any. The same size argument is crap, Parker was never 5'10. Hell the way Arizona lists heights I bet we list Coleman at 6'0 if he were to come here.

Either way we need him or Williams. You don't go into next season with Alex Barcello who played sparingly being your sole option at the 1. I'm in agreement with you overall on Johnson, but we need somebody to handle the rock.

[goslingswagg]

So to sum it up Coleman is better in the P&R, Isolation, and Hand off. They both suck in transition i.e. they're both short, and Parker was a better spot up shooter (the only thing he ever did good on offense). As far as defense goes Samford obviously gave zero shits about playing any, so I don't take it too seriously. Regardless our defense is in the hands of our wings and that goes for even if we land Williams. If the wings can't play D effectively then we're screwed already, so I couldn't care less about his defense at a program who had zero interest in playing any. The same size argument is crap, Parker was never 5'10. Hell the way Arizona lists heights I bet we list Coleman at 6'0 if he were to come here.

Either way we need him or Williams. You don't go into next season with Alex Barcello who played sparingly being your sole option at the 1. I'm in agreement with you overall on Johnson, but we need somebody to handle the rock.

So have we given up on Ehab Amin, Chartouny, and the other grad transfer PGs?

[ChooChooCat]

So to sum it up Coleman is better in the P&R, Isolation, and Hand off. They both suck in transition i.e. they're both short, and Parker was a better spot up shooter (the only thing he ever did good on offense). As far as defense goes Samford obviously gave zero shits about playing any, so I don't take it too seriously. Regardless our defense is in the hands of our wings and that goes for even if we land Williams. If the wings can't play D effectively then we're screwed already, so I couldn't care less about his defense at a program who had zero interest in playing any. The same size argument is crap, Parker was never 5'10. Hell the way Arizona lists heights I bet we list Coleman at 6'0 if he were to come here.

Either way we need him or Williams. You don't go into next season with Alex Barcello who played sparingly being your sole option at the 1. I'm in agreement with you overall on Johnson, but we need somebody to handle the rock.

So have we given up on Ehab Amin, Chartouny, and the other grad transfer PGs?

Chartouny already narrowed it down and we're not on his list. I don't believe we've recruited Amin much honestly.

[rgdeuce]

PJC held opponents to a decent 0.869ppp, good for about 50th percentile. Coleman gave up 1.051ppp - which is in the bottom 10% of players in division 1 basketball. In man to man defensive sets, Coleman ranked in the bottom 5%.

All of the above is with PJC playing for Arizona with a top 50 strength of schedule and Coleman playing for Samford - just outside the top 200 in SOS.

Samford was one of the worst defensive teams in the country last year (346th of 351) and defense is a team effort. But when Coleman was isolated, he ranked in the bottom 4%. When Coleman was tasked with defending catch and shoot jumpers, he ranked in the bottom 15%. Those are individual defensive plays.

So he's PJC on offense and probably a shadow of PJC on defense. Is that the solution we're looking for?

How do his numbers look from his first two seasons at Bama?

[Beachcat97]

Man, as far as this PG discussion goes, all I can think of is, fuck Mark Schlabach.

BW should've been ours ages ago. We're only in this spot because of that smear job article.

[ChooChooCat]

So to sum it up Coleman is better in the P&R, Isolation, and Hand off. They both suck in transition i.e. they're both short, and Parker was a better spot up shooter (the only thing he ever did good on offense). As far as defense goes Samford obviously gave zero shits about playing any, so I don't take it too seriously. Regardless our defense is in the hands of our wings and that goes for even if we land Williams. If the wings can't play D effectively then we're screwed already, so I couldn't care less about his defense at a program who had zero interest in playing any. The same size argument is crap, Parker was never 5'10. Hell the way Arizona lists heights I bet we list Coleman at 6'0 if he were to come here.

Either way we need him or Williams. You don't go into next season with Alex Barcello who played sparingly being your sole option at the 1. I'm in agreement with you overall on Johnson, but we need somebody to handle the rock.

So have we given up on Ehab Amin, Chartouny, and the other grad transfer PGs?

Chartouny already narrowed it down and we're not on his list. I don't believe we've recruited Amin much honestly.

Amin just narrowed it down to 3 schools and we're not one of them.

[YoDeFoe]

How do his numbers look from his first two seasons at Bama?

Numbers at Bama look a lot better, which was part of the reason I was reminded that he could be better on D if not for being on Samford.

Bottom 30% in iso, bottom 35% in catch and shoot. 63rd percentile in overall man to man.

So, maybe he's not a poor man's PJC. Maybe he's just another PJC.

[Spaceman Spiff]

and Coleman is very much a poor man's PJC.

Based on what exactly?

Basically the exact same shooting splits and scoring style, with PJC being a 5 percentage point better three point shooter and Coleman being a 5 percentage point better finisher at the rim and at the line.

Same size, both 5'10" 170lbs.

Both posted about .90 points per possession scoring and 1.4ppp scoring + assists, both with ~2.4 A:TO. Similar offensive rating (Coleman v PJC). Coleman was a higher usage offensive player, for what its worth.

But oh boy - defensive rating.

PJC held opponents to a decent 0.869ppp, good for about 50th percentile. Coleman gave up 1.051ppp - which is in the bottom 10% of players in division 1 basketball. In man to man defensive sets, Coleman ranked in the bottom 5%.

All of the above is with PJC playing for Arizona with a top 50 strength of schedule and Coleman playing for Samford - just outside the top 200 in SOS.

Samford was one of the worst defensive teams in the country last year (346th of 351) and defense is a team effort. But when Coleman was isolated, he ranked in the bottom 4%. When Coleman was tasked with defending catch and shoot jumpers, he ranked in the bottom 15%. Those are individual defensive plays.

So he's PJC on offense and probably a shadow of PJC on defense. Is that the solution we're looking for?

Ew.

[ChooChooCat]

I'd honestly start the acceptance phase if I were you guys or at least get used to the idea.

[prh]

Why are we comparing PJC and Coleman using stats? Stats were not the problem at the end of the day (/year).

What is his demeanor? Is he a leader? Can he keep a positive mindset when things get tough? Can he bring some intensity?

If Parker could have done those, we'd still be talking about this year's tourney results right now.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I'd honestly start the acceptance phase if I were you guys or at least get used to the idea.

Or maybe if I pinch my butt cheek hard enough, Quinerly and Williams will both return to Arizona.

[goslingswagg]

I'd honestly start the acceptance phase if I were you guys or at least get used to the idea.

As was said on the premium board, I'm fine with PJC 2.0 skills wise as long as he has confidence, heart, leadership skills, competitiveness, etc.

[zonagrad]

Man, as far as this PG discussion goes, all I can think of is, fuck Mark Schlabach.

BW should've been ours ages ago. We're only in this spot because of that smear job article.

Pretty much. Schlabach would be an idiot to ever visit Tucson. The damage his "report" caused is immeasurable.

[zonagrad]

I'll take Johnson over Coleman ever day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[ChooChooCat]

I'll take Johnson over Coleman ever day of the week and twice on Sunday.

He's not a point guard.

[zonagrad]

I'll take Johnson over Coleman ever day of the week and twice on Sunday.

He's not a point guard.

We'd still be a better team with him than Coleman. By far.

[TucsonClip]

I'll take Johnson over Coleman ever day of the week and twice on Sunday.

He's not a point guard.

Then he should fit in just fine.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I'll take Johnson over Coleman ever day of the week and twice on Sunday.

He's not a point guard.

He can learn. Motion doesn't really demand one as much, and we would do better with a combo guard who's a tough defender than a pg who's a shaky defender.

[Bosy Billups]

Man, as far as this PG discussion goes, all I can think of is, fuck Mark Schlabach.

BW should've been ours ages ago. We're only in this spot because of that smear job article.

Pretty much. Schlabach would be an idiot to ever visit Tucson. The damage his "report" caused is immeasurable.

WAKE UP!!! For the last time, Schlabach is just the "fall guy" in all of this. He penned the piece, put his name on it, and no doubt about it was paid handsomely, not just from ESPN/ABC, but likely from outside people. Who cares? He's a journo, nothing more, nothing else. He moves on to the next piece and people forget.

DRILL THIS INTO YOUR BRAIN

The purpose of the article was to deflect from the Yahoo! article implicating 25 well known teams right before conference tourneys and march madness. If Miller was innocent, he'll make it through in a couple months with some scars. If he was guilty, so be it. Schlaback's story deflected the real story and Miller was the perfect deflection. Truth be told, that story saved a lot of jobs, donor money, and ad money. You know it. So, welcome to reality, this is how it works.

Wish you guys would wake the eff up to how the real world works and stop just consuming like brainless zombies with no analytical or critical analysis discernment skills. Are there really this many sheeple? If so, very scary.

[ASUHATER!]

Man, as far as this PG discussion goes, all I can think of is, fuck Mark Schlabach.

BW should've been ours ages ago. We're only in this spot because of that smear job article.

Pretty much. Schlabach would be an idiot to ever visit Tucson. The damage his "report" caused is immeasurable.

WAKE UP!!! For the last time, Schlabach is just the "fall guy" in all of this. He penned the piece, put his name on it, and no doubt about it was paid handsomely, not just from ESPN/ABC, but likely from outside people. Who cares? He's a journo, nothing more, nothing else. He moves on to the next piece and people forget.

DRILL THIS INTO YOUR BRAIN

The purpose of the article was to deflect from the Yahoo! article implicating 25 well known teams right before conference tourneys and march madness. If Miller was innocent, he'll make it through in a couple months with some scars. If he was guilty, so be it. Schlaback's story deflected the real story and Miller was the perfect deflection. Truth be told, that story saved a lot of jobs, donor money, and ad money. You know it. So, welcome to reality, this is how it works.

Wish you guys would wake the eff up to how the real world works and stop just consuming like brainless zombies with no analytical or critical analysis discernment skills. Are there really this many sheeple? If so, very scary.

Does your tin foil hat mess up your hair?

[Chicat]

Bosy, where can I subscribe to your newsletter?

[Bosy Billups]

"Newsletter" "Tin Foil" "Conspiracy Theory"

Wow, you guys are brain to the washed with prospects of any recovery dim.

Congrats on wasting a brain, you serve your puppet masters just as planned.

[ChooChooCat]

I'll take Johnson over Coleman ever day of the week and twice on Sunday.

He's not a point guard.

Then he should fit in just fine.

Ain't that the truth. I suppose we can run a Luke Walton situation where Akot runs the offense and Johnson plays the Gardner role where he gets some assists, but his main role is to score.

[Chicat]

"Newsletter" "Tin Foil" "Conspiracy Theory"

Wow, you guys are brain to the washed with prospects of any recovery dim.

Congrats on wasting a brain, you serve your puppet masters just as planned.

If I can see the chemtrails is it already too late? Or do I have time to get to the bunker?

[ChooChooCat]

Well Zach Johnson just committed to Miami. So it's Coleman or Williams or bust.

[Newportcat]

"Newsletter" "Tin Foil" "Conspiracy Theory"

Wow, you guys are brain to the washed with prospects of any recovery dim.

Congrats on wasting a brain, you serve your puppet masters just as planned.

If I can see the chemtrails is it already too late? Or do I have time to get to the bunker?

I have been called many things but never been called “Brain to the washed”

I am going to use that line now, hope bosy didn’t copyright it. Actually no way he would copyright it as he doesn’t trust the government