10 Predictions for 2014-15

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Olsondogg
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Olsondogg »

RHJ will be better than AG offensively, not as good defensively.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by gumby »

Merkin wrote:RHJ is a better free throw shooter, but no way he defends near as well as Gordon, not even close. AG could guard every player on the court.

Gordon was also a 49.5% FG shooter and a 36.5% 3PT shooter.

Don't think RHJ will improve on those numbers.
Except Kaminsky.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

gumby wrote:
Merkin wrote:RHJ is a better free throw shooter, but no way he defends near as well as Gordon, not even close. AG could guard every player on the court.

Gordon was also a 49.5% FG shooter and a 36.5% 3PT shooter.

Don't think RHJ will improve on those numbers.
Except Kaminsky.
But this year, Tarc will have help guarding Kaminsky. I'd love to think that Tarc has improved enough that he can at least slow Kaminsky down, which he couldn't do in the tourney, but it may not matter given our nice group of big men.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Longhorned »

As good as he was, Kaminsky didn't beat Arizona. Arizona's inability to score points beat Arizona. Look at the final score, even with overtime. That's where Ashley and Stanley Johnson come in this year.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by KaibabKat »

What are the odds that we even play Wisconsin this year? I would suppose they are pretty slim.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

KaibabKat wrote:What are the odds that we even play Wisconsin this year? I would suppose they are pretty slim.
The odds aren't great. But you know how much the selection committees love to place past tourney opponents in the same region.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Longhorned »

We probably won't play Wisconsin in the tourney this year. I'm just saying why we lost to them last year, and how we don't have that weakness this year.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by NYCat »

I'll gladly take more offense and slightly worse defense if it means offensive struggles for 5-7+ mins during games stop. That's what cost Arizona the game vs Wisconsin, RHJ & NJ were the only ones scoring late & lost the lead/game because of it (IIRC).

It kept teams in the game longer then they should've been, not being capable of putting them away earlier (Wisconsin).

Besides its not like the D is taking a huge step back, its an incremental loss at best. Teams are going to have a tough time scoring & rebounding vs this year's team.

Everyone likes to think Kaminsky alone beat last years team. That wasn't the case at all, offensive struggles were the downfall of that team. We saw evidence of it during the season even before the Ashley injury but somehow didn't pay much attention to it.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

NYCat wrote:
Everyone likes to think Kaminsky alone beat last years team. That wasn't the case at all, offensive struggles were the downfall of that team. We saw evidence of it during the season even before the Ashley injury but somehow didn't pay much attention to it.
And you think we'll be better offensively this year? After losing NJ and AG? I mean, that's putting a lot of faith in SJ and RHJ. Maybe they deserve it. Not sure. We also didn't have Ashley against Wisconsin, and if we have him for that game, I think it's a different outcome. I really like the balance of frontcourt and backcourt scoring options with this year's team. Just not sure we can lose NJ and AG and somehow become better offensively.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Longhorned »

Beachcat97 wrote:
NYCat wrote:
Everyone likes to think Kaminsky alone beat last years team. That wasn't the case at all, offensive struggles were the downfall of that team. We saw evidence of it during the season even before the Ashley injury but somehow didn't pay much attention to it.
And you think we'll be better offensively this year? After losing NJ and AG? I mean, that's putting a lot of faith in SJ and RHJ. Maybe they deserve it. Not sure. We also didn't have Ashley against Wisconsin, and if we have him for that game, I think it's a different outcome. I really like the balance of frontcourt and backcourt scoring options with this year's team. Just not sure we can lose NJ and AG and somehow become better offensively.
AG wasn't a maestro on offense. NJ wasn't the level of talent you get with SJ. Nobody will have wings who'll be able to guard SJ and RHJ at the same time. RHJ gets his sophomore jump. Ashley > no Ashley. Even if York, TJ, and Tarc somehow don't improve, and Ristic is some kind of bust, the improvement on offense is expected.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by NYCat »

Beachcat97 wrote: And you think we'll be better offensively this year? After losing NJ and AG? I mean, that's putting a lot of faith in SJ and RHJ. Maybe they deserve it. Not sure. We also didn't have Ashley against Wisconsin, and if we have him for that game, I think it's a different outcome. I really like the balance of frontcourt and backcourt scoring options with this year's team. Just not sure we can lose NJ and AG and somehow become better offensively.

Actually no, which I didn't predict a Natty this year. Losing Gordon honestly isn't a big deal, he made a bigger impact on defense & rebounding. Johnson leaving hurts, because guard play is crucial come tournament time. I said this last year and I'll say it again

If you look at past champions, the teams with better guard play win in March:

• '14 UConn | Napier, Boatwright -- UK team who had James Young, Julius Randle, Cauley-Stein, Poythress, Dakari yet that team couldn't beat the combo of Boatwright & Napier
• '13 Louisville | Smith, Siva
• '12 Kentucky | Lamb, Teague (this team had Davis & MKG - dominant) guard play wasn't nearly as important. But both played well, they did have the best guards
• '11 UConn | Kemba, Lamb
• '10 Duke | Scheyer, Smith
• '09 North Carolina | Lawson, Ellington
• '08 Kansas | Chalmers, Rush, Collins
• '06 & '07 Florida might be one of the few outliers, but Green & Humphrey were very good anyway.
• '05 North Carolina | Felton, McCants
• '04 UConn | Gordon, Anderson - Okafor was good
• '03 Syracuse | Also a possible outlier, McNamara only but Melo (Warrick as well) was there, who beat two Gs Collison & Hinrich

I could go on and on but just remember 97, Bibby & Simon. Its honestly way too early right now to know if Arizona will be vastly better offensively to makeup for the defensive loss. But Nick leaving sucks. Stanley is more of a 3. I don't see Tj hitting big shots or making key offensive plays. York would have to step up tremendously to make the guard combo deadly. Hopefully this is a Florida type team that is just way too good to be stopped.

This team is great enough for a Final Four but right now I don't know if they're good enough to finish the job.
Last edited by NYCat on Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:20 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

Longhorned wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:
NYCat wrote:
Everyone likes to think Kaminsky alone beat last years team. That wasn't the case at all, offensive struggles were the downfall of that team. We saw evidence of it during the season even before the Ashley injury but somehow didn't pay much attention to it.
And you think we'll be better offensively this year? After losing NJ and AG? I mean, that's putting a lot of faith in SJ and RHJ. Maybe they deserve it. Not sure. We also didn't have Ashley against Wisconsin, and if we have him for that game, I think it's a different outcome. I really like the balance of frontcourt and backcourt scoring options with this year's team. Just not sure we can lose NJ and AG and somehow become better offensively.
AG wasn't a maestro on offense. NJ wasn't the level of talent you get with SJ. Nobody will have wings who'll be able to guard SJ and RHJ at the same time. RHJ gets his sophomore jump. Ashley > no Ashley. Even if York, TJ, and Tarc somehow don't improve, and Ristic is some kind of bust, the improvement on offense is expected.
Sounds good to me! I hope you're right!
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

NYCat wrote:
This team is great enough for a Final Four but right now I don't know if they're good enough to finish the job.
I think it will depend, in part, on whether someone emerges as our killer, a go-to scorer who can be counted on in the final minute of the game. NJ played this role last year; TJ, too, at times.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by 97cats »

i think this yrs team is better -- the main difference is in the 5th yr senior PG (third yr in the program) for Arizona, first ever returning starter at PG under Coach Miller in his tenure -- it means somethin.

not to mention, Tarc is a yr older/wiser and Jefferson has AA written all over him, most dynamic player on the team.

better free throws overall.......im a stickler for FT's

i think Brandon Ashley shoots 43.5% from three and is better than ever -- he will be huge stretching the floor. i see Sam Perkins with those long arms and that smooth release. alter shots, cause discomfort, play the tip drill.

Stanley Johnson is a man child who is an underrated passer and defender -- he sure as shit can rebound the basketball and knock some heads too. loves to pick the ball up and go left off the dribble with the bully move especially in transition -- teams are gonna scout him.

Arizona's size is gonna cause major problems for teams especially on the backboards -- all five projected starters are excellent rebounders (McConnell 3.7rpg)

last 10mins, can opponents make enough shots? will they have enough breaths??

can AZ make enough shots?

who plays back-up shooting guard??

who killed Nordberg?

and where the hell was i??????

KK, maybe 50% is ambitious -- 47%+ would do the trick too.

TJ -- 45% | 42% | 80% = Final Four
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by gumby »

Was responding to a narrow point: AG can guard all positions. But this being the Internet, it will turn into the meaning of life, or a cat playing the piano.

Then the hoary "committee loves rematches" cliche. The horor. The horror.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by PieceOfMeat »

gumby wrote: Then the hoary "committee loves rematches" cliche. The horor. The horror.
Today's internet is brought to you by: hoary, the word of the day.
It's long past time to bring this back to the court, let's do it with a small update:

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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Olsondogg »

I don't see TJ shooting 42% from the arc...
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Merkin »

Olsondogg wrote:I don't see TJ shooting 42% from the arc...

He shot .432 at Duquesne, and it's 20'9" there too.

Don't think he was quite used to the speed of PAC defenses and was intimidated last year, but now he is a 5th year senior with 2 years under his belt.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by gumby »

PieceOfMeat wrote:
gumby wrote: Then the hoary "committee loves rematches" cliche. The horor. The horror.
Today's internet is brought to you by: hoary, the word of the day.
We should have a Word of the Day.

very old; not interesting, funny, etc., because of being used too often: not fresh or original: having gray or white hair

Or blue hair. :mrgreen:
Right where I want to be.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Olsondogg »

Merkin wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:I don't see TJ shooting 42% from the arc...

He shot .432 at Duquesne, and it's 20'9" there too.

Don't think he was quite used to the speed of PAC defenses and was intimidated last year, but now he is a 5th year senior with 2 years under his belt.

He shot that one year...his last there. His frosh year he shot 40%. I think if he hit 40% that would be great...I just don't see him shooting that much on this years team, and he seemed hesitant at times to pull the trigger last year.

I think, despite his form, TJ is a good threat from the arc. Hopefully he can shoot much better from the line. I don't think we will "need" TJ's scoring that much this year, but a 10 ppg average, with a good % from the line and arc would do wonders.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by PieceOfMeat »

gumby wrote:
PieceOfMeat wrote:
gumby wrote: Then the hoary "committee loves rematches" cliche. The horor. The horror.
Today's internet is brought to you by: hoary, the word of the day.
We should have a Word of the Day.

very old; not interesting, funny, etc., because of being used too often: not fresh or original: having gray or white hair

Or blue hair. :mrgreen:
We should have a word of the day, get that thread started gumby!

Not that one couldn't have guessed the meaning of hoary from the context, but I'll admit to looking up the word just to make sure my guess was correct. Don't know that I've ever read the word hoary before today (maybe I have and simply forgot it). Can already see using it in insults "Oh, you're so hoary". I imagine that would garner quite a few interesting responses/looks.
It's long past time to bring this back to the court, let's do it with a small update:

Image
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by 97cats »

its not about how much, its about at what percentages -- no more 1-7 games from the floor is the key
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Olsondogg »

97cats wrote:its not about how much, its about at what percentages -- no more 1-7 games from the floor is the key
Generally I agree...he'll have a bad shooting game as all players do. With less attempts thought, it's harder to overcome those bad performances.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by gumby »

PieceOfMeat wrote:
gumby wrote:
PieceOfMeat wrote:
gumby wrote: Then the hoary "committee loves rematches" cliche. The horor. The horror.
Today's internet is brought to you by: hoary, the word of the day.
We should have a Word of the Day.

very old; not interesting, funny, etc., because of being used too often: not fresh or original: having gray or white hair

Or blue hair. :mrgreen:
We should have a word of the day, get that thread started gumby!

Not that one couldn't have guessed the meaning of hoary from the context, but I'll admit to looking up the word just to make sure my guess was correct. Don't know that I've ever read the word hoary before today (maybe I have and simply forgot it). Can already see using it in insults "Oh, you're so hoary". I imagine that would garner quite a few interesting responses/looks.
I'll have to drop in more recondite words.
Right where I want to be.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Puerco »

I'll be one happy guy if Stanley is a more effective offensive player than Nick was last year.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

Puerco wrote:I'll be one happy guy if Stanley is a more effective offensive player than Nick was last year.
Not sure SJ can hit from the perimeter like NJ. Guess we'll see.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by 3goggles »

Beachcat97 wrote:
Puerco wrote:I'll be one happy guy if Stanley is a more effective offensive player than Nick was last year.
Not sure SJ can hit from the perimeter like NJ. Guess we'll see.
He only shot 36% from 3. I think that number can def be reached by Stanley.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Puerco »

3goggles wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:
Puerco wrote:I'll be one happy guy if Stanley is a more effective offensive player than Nick was last year.
Not sure SJ can hit from the perimeter like NJ. Guess we'll see.
He only shot 36% from 3. I think that number can def be reached by Stanley.
Has he come anywhere near that at any level?
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by azcat49 »

Maui Champions
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PAC tourney champions
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West #1 seed
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by 97cats »

azcat49 wrote:Maui Champions
Undefeated OOC
PAC 12 champions
PAC tourney champions
3 all conference players
SJ top frehshman honors in conference
West #1 seed
West region champion
Play Kentuckey in Championship
Celebration in Tucson on Monday night'
Parade in Tucson the next day
New Video for next year
i like this
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by gumby »

We all do. No pressure, coach! Just a simple to-do list!
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Merkin »

Puerco wrote:
3goggles wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:
Puerco wrote:I'll be one happy guy if Stanley is a more effective offensive player than Nick was last year.
Not sure SJ can hit from the perimeter like NJ. Guess we'll see.
He only shot 36% from 3. I think that number can def be reached by Stanley.
Has he come anywhere near that at any level?

SJ was a 29% to 31% 3 point shooter in EYBL and International play. However, he is only 18 although he won't be around to hit 19 for Arizona.

Nick Johnson was a 32% 3PT shooter as a freshman.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

If SJ shoots better than 32% from 3 this season, I think most of us would be pretty surprised. Pleasantly surprised :) But still surprised.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by gumby »

Beachcat97 wrote:If SJ shoots better than 32% from 3 this season, I think most of us would be pretty surprised. Pleasantly surprised :) But still surprised.
Why? Wouldn't surprise me.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Jefe »

Beachcat97 wrote:Not sure SJ can hit from the perimeter like NJ. Guess we'll see.
This was beyond the NBA 3 pt line. So smooth

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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Puerco »

There are great mix tapes showing SJ's range, and scouts say he has a decent stroke, but I've yet to see any statistics from a season showing him shooting over 35%. Maybe they're out there and I just haven't seen them, but till I do I'm skeptical.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by EOCT »

gumby wrote:
PieceOfMeat wrote:
gumby wrote:
PieceOfMeat wrote:
gumby wrote: Then the hoary "committee loves rematches" cliche. The horor. The horror.
Today's internet is brought to you by: hoary, the word of the day.
We should have a Word of the Day.

very old; not interesting, funny, etc., because of being used too often: not fresh or original: having gray or white hair

Or blue hair. :mrgreen:
We should have a word of the day, get that thread started gumby!

Not that one couldn't have guessed the meaning of hoary from the context, but I'll admit to looking up the word just to make sure my guess was correct. Don't know that I've ever read the word hoary before today (maybe I have and simply forgot it). Can already see using it in insults "Oh, you're so hoary". I imagine that would garner quite a few interesting responses/looks.
I'll have to drop in more recondite words.

Got it, Gumby! recondite = reconsider dat night

(places hands over face in shame for contributing to a thread crime)
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

If SJ asserts himself as a dangerous perimeter shooter, our offense is gonna be scary. His dribble-penetration will force a lot of double-teams, freeing up Zeus and Ash for high percentage looks. And it'll leave Gabe and TJ open for 3-point tries.

Praying that we can stay healthy all season! This is the best looking roster we've had in a while.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

Beachcat97 wrote:1. Ashley and TJ will be All-Pac
2. We're going to see at least three different starting lineups before Pac play begins
3. Miller will get his first FF
4. Another Pac 12 title
5. We're going to lose at least one OOC game
6. Undefeated at home
7. Stanley Johnson will be very, very good, but he won't make quite the impact that AG did
8. Pitts will get more PT than York
9. PJC will remind people of Nic Wise
10. Kadeem Allen will be a key 6th or 7th man
So I was wrong on (8) and (10), and probably (2).

Still looking good with (1), (3), (4), (6), (7), and (9).

Not sure on (5).
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by PieceOfMeat »

couldn't find the exact post I was looking for, but this one works:
Longhorned wrote:As good as he was, Kaminsky didn't beat Arizona. Arizona's inability to score points beat Arizona.
Similar to last night. As much as we got eaten up inside, over and over, we still had several shots to take the lead/tie it/win the game alte....and we couldn't score points.
It's long past time to bring this back to the court, let's do it with a small update:

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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

PieceOfMeat wrote:couldn't find the exact post I was looking for, but this one works:
Longhorned wrote:As good as he was, Kaminsky didn't beat Arizona. Arizona's inability to score points beat Arizona.
Similar to last night. As much as we got eaten up inside, over and over, we still had several shots to take the lead/tie it/win the game alte....and we couldn't score points.
So more and more, the conclusion seems to be: Sean Miller cannot produce a team that is highly efficient on offense. This would include free throws. Is that the take-away?
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Bosy Billups »

Trier Trier Trier

the next salim in 2015

Plus PJC, Dusan takes a step up, York/Pitts/Kadeem, maybe a Rabb to boot?

We will be top 5 offensively next year.

This year, we'll END top 17, book it now.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by 3goggles »

Bosy Billups wrote:Trier Trier Trier

the next salim in 2015

Plus PJC, Dusan takes a step up, York/Pitts/Kadeem, maybe a Rabb to boot?

We will be top 5 offensively next year.

This year, we'll END top 17, book it now.
By the looks of it we may be getting RJ, BASH and Zues all back next year with there current play. Sign me up for that!
azdoubledown
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by azdoubledown »

Lets be honest in evaluating the improvement from last year:

TJ: Shooting worse than last year. Still a good assist-man and overall solid player
York: Shooting worse than last year, same dumb turnovers and forced passes into the middle. A downgrade from N.J. that's for sure. RHJ should be starting as everyone in the world knows
Tarc: Same or worse, no improvement. Has blocked only 8 shots all year. Gets flustered and off his game way too easily
Rondae: Shooting barely better but still a crappy 28% from three and just as bad from 2-pt jumpers. 1-dimensional player on offense you know he is driving every damn time. Elite defender still and still a stud like last year
Ashley: He was better last year, doesn't look very focused or intense when he's out there
Pitts: We need his shoooting but he plays like a freshman in big games with untimely turnovers. Does CSM trust him on the road? I think EP was one of the guys CSM referred to at half as "scared / young / crowd got to them". Miller can't hide his defense with his strict M2M approach.
Ristic: An improvement but hes a bit stiff
PJC: Big improvement. Calm cool collected and actually has a not-bad looking shot
Stanley: Improvement offensively over Gordon, but apparently can lay a giant egg ala last night choke job blowing game-winning LAYUP
Victor: incomplete

Maybe its time to focus on offense for once :idea:
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by azcat49 »

Holy hell, can this board melt down anymore after a meaningless December OOC loss? A road loss to a historic rival who played extra hard in front of a motivated crowd with our kids having airplane tickets home no less.

no doubt York is not NJ and we miss his defense a lot. And Gordon took so much pressure off Zeus and Ashley but this is who and what we have.

still will be a protected seed in the west and we will play for a final four. If we get blown out by someone, let me know. Doubt it happens.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

azcat49 wrote: If we get blown out by someone, let me know. Doubt it happens.
Does it matter that we lost by 4 and not 24? A loss is a loss.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by AZCatGirl »

Beachcat97 wrote:
azcat49 wrote: If we get blown out by someone, let me know. Doubt it happens.
Does it matter that we lost by 4 and not 24? A loss is a loss.
Is this a serious question? If we lost by 24 to UNLV something would be seriously wrong with the team.
“The reality is that the hardest games to win are over teams on their home court. Teams that don’t play those games can spin it however they want, but what they’re saying is, ‘We don’t want to lose in our non conference season.’" - Sean Miller
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by Beachcat97 »

AZCatGirl wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:
azcat49 wrote: If we get blown out by someone, let me know. Doubt it happens.
Does it matter that we lost by 4 and not 24? A loss is a loss.
Is this a serious question? If we lost by 24 to UNLV something would be seriously wrong with the team.
I don't think anything is less "seriously wrong" given that we lost by 4 to this team. A team that multiple Pac teams have already beaten decisively.
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by azcat49 »

Beachcat97 wrote:
azcat49 wrote: If we get blown out by someone, let me know. Doubt it happens.
Does it matter that we lost by 4 and not 24? A loss is a loss.
You more then anyone should know it does. Would you prefer UCLA? Shoot poorly from the line and give ip 71 and you will lose some close games. Get n lown out and you either have poor talent, poor coaching or poor effort (see UCLA)
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Re: 10 Predictions for 2014-15

Post by AZCatGirl »

Beachcat97 wrote:
AZCatGirl wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:
azcat49 wrote: If we get blown out by someone, let me know. Doubt it happens.
Does it matter that we lost by 4 and not 24? A loss is a loss.
Is this a serious question? If we lost by 24 to UNLV something would be seriously wrong with the team.
I don't think anything is less "seriously wrong" given that we lost by 4 to this team. A team that multiple Pac teams have already beaten decisively.
If Rondae hadn't fouled out and/or Bash's three hadn't been interfered with, we probably would've won. If we were blown out we wouldn't have even been in the game and had zero chance to win at the end. I'm not sure why you think both situations are identical.

And I don't care what other Pac teams did. You know the motivation for UNLV wasn't the same.
“The reality is that the hardest games to win are over teams on their home court. Teams that don’t play those games can spin it however they want, but what they’re saying is, ‘We don’t want to lose in our non conference season.’" - Sean Miller
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