The Hot Stove '19/20
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
2019-20 MLB free agent class superlatives: The player most likely to ...
Guy most likely to put a team over the top: Patrick Corbin. ... There might be concern about the long-term health of a guy who throws sliders 40 percent of the time, but Corbin has the ability to be the difference-maker for the Yankees, Nationals or Dodgers.
Corbin signed with the Washington Nationals, went 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and was the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series when he tossed three scoreless innings in relief of Max Scherzer. Corbin still has five years remaining on his six-year, $140 million contract, but with a World Series title in hand, you can argue anything moving forward is gravy.
Time to preview what might happen this offseason in free agency ...
Guy most likely to sign the biggest deal: Everyone expects Gerrit Cole to easily break David Price's record contract for a pitcher, the seven-year, $217 million deal he signed with the Boston Red Sox in 2016. Cole certainly compares favorably with the best free-agent starting pitchers available over the past five seasons. I would rank him as the best one to hit the market, or at least equal to Scherzer when Scherzer was a free agent after 2014:
Cole (29 years old), 2018-2019: 35-10 W-L, 2.68 ERA, 164 ERA+, 12.1 WAR
Patrick Corbin (29), 2017-2018: 25-20, 3.58 ERA, 124 ERA+, 7.1 WAR
Yu Darvish (31), 2016-2017: 17-17, 3.70 ERA, 125 ERA+, 6.4 WAR
David Price (30), 2014-2015: 33-17, 2.88 ERA, 135 ERA+, 10.5 WAR
Zack Greinke (32), 2014-2015: 36-11, 2.16 ERA, 166 ERA+, 13.5 WAR
Johnny Cueto (30), 2014-2015: 31-22, 2.80 ERA, 137 ERA+, 10.7 WAR
Jordan Zimmermann (30), 2014-2015: 27-15, 3.16 ERA, 122 ERA+, 7.9 WAR
Max Scherzer (30), 2013-2014: 39-8, 3.02 ERA, 133 ERA+, 12.1 WAR
Jon Lester (31), 2013-2014: 31-19, 3.10 ERA, 129 ERA+, 7.7 WAR
Like Scherzer, Cole is a power pitcher with a mostly positive track record for health. He's a year younger than Scherzer, and the fact that Scherzer has gone 79-39 with a 2.74 ERA for the Nationals will only help Cole get that $250 million-plus contract. Pitchers like this are rare, and it's even more rare for them to reach free agency. The Los Angeles Angels are viewed as the front-runners for Cole, although Houston Astros owner Jim Crane vowed to "take a run" at re-signing Cole. Those are empty words when factoring in the rest of the quote to the Houston Chronicle, however: "We don't know if we can get where they want to get." Oh, yes: Scott Boras is Cole's agent.
Guy most likely to be the biggest steal: Hyun-Jin Ryu. I pegged Josh Donaldson in this space a year ago and was tempted to do that again, but Donaldson should get a multiyear deal this offseason. Ryu, coming off a season in which he led the majors with a 2.32 ERA, might nonetheless end up undervalued for several reasons:
• Age and injury issues: He'll be entering his age-33 season and had Tommy John surgery as an amateur in 2004 and then shoulder and elbow injuries as he made only one start in 2015 and 2016.
• His non-elite strikeout rate. Ryu ranked 59th in strikeout rate out of 130 pitchers with at least 100 innings.
• His 5.40 ERA over his final seven regular-season starts, raising his ERA from 1.45 in early August.
Those are the negatives, but I like the positives:
• Ryu's elite walk rate. He had the second-lowest rate among those 130 pitchers. He doesn't beat himself.
• Grounders and soft contact. He ranked 10th in ground ball rate and eighth in lowest average exit velocity. His changeup has become one of the best weapons in baseball and he threw it a career-high 28% of the time in 2019.
• He has actually been mostly healthy the past three seasons, missing time in 2018 because of a groin injury, not an arm issue.
In some ways, the profile is similar to that of Dallas Keuchel, who settled for a one-year deal at midseason in 2019, but he's better than Keuchel and should have more interest. That might or might not come from the Dodgers, who will have plenty of starting pitching options with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Ross Stripling and Tony Gonsolin -- and maybe they pursue Cole as well (although the Dodgers have been reluctant to hand out big free-agent deals under Andrew Friedman).
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/280 ... gent-class
Guy most likely to put a team over the top: Patrick Corbin. ... There might be concern about the long-term health of a guy who throws sliders 40 percent of the time, but Corbin has the ability to be the difference-maker for the Yankees, Nationals or Dodgers.
Corbin signed with the Washington Nationals, went 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA and was the winning pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series when he tossed three scoreless innings in relief of Max Scherzer. Corbin still has five years remaining on his six-year, $140 million contract, but with a World Series title in hand, you can argue anything moving forward is gravy.
Time to preview what might happen this offseason in free agency ...
Guy most likely to sign the biggest deal: Everyone expects Gerrit Cole to easily break David Price's record contract for a pitcher, the seven-year, $217 million deal he signed with the Boston Red Sox in 2016. Cole certainly compares favorably with the best free-agent starting pitchers available over the past five seasons. I would rank him as the best one to hit the market, or at least equal to Scherzer when Scherzer was a free agent after 2014:
Cole (29 years old), 2018-2019: 35-10 W-L, 2.68 ERA, 164 ERA+, 12.1 WAR
Patrick Corbin (29), 2017-2018: 25-20, 3.58 ERA, 124 ERA+, 7.1 WAR
Yu Darvish (31), 2016-2017: 17-17, 3.70 ERA, 125 ERA+, 6.4 WAR
David Price (30), 2014-2015: 33-17, 2.88 ERA, 135 ERA+, 10.5 WAR
Zack Greinke (32), 2014-2015: 36-11, 2.16 ERA, 166 ERA+, 13.5 WAR
Johnny Cueto (30), 2014-2015: 31-22, 2.80 ERA, 137 ERA+, 10.7 WAR
Jordan Zimmermann (30), 2014-2015: 27-15, 3.16 ERA, 122 ERA+, 7.9 WAR
Max Scherzer (30), 2013-2014: 39-8, 3.02 ERA, 133 ERA+, 12.1 WAR
Jon Lester (31), 2013-2014: 31-19, 3.10 ERA, 129 ERA+, 7.7 WAR
Like Scherzer, Cole is a power pitcher with a mostly positive track record for health. He's a year younger than Scherzer, and the fact that Scherzer has gone 79-39 with a 2.74 ERA for the Nationals will only help Cole get that $250 million-plus contract. Pitchers like this are rare, and it's even more rare for them to reach free agency. The Los Angeles Angels are viewed as the front-runners for Cole, although Houston Astros owner Jim Crane vowed to "take a run" at re-signing Cole. Those are empty words when factoring in the rest of the quote to the Houston Chronicle, however: "We don't know if we can get where they want to get." Oh, yes: Scott Boras is Cole's agent.
Guy most likely to be the biggest steal: Hyun-Jin Ryu. I pegged Josh Donaldson in this space a year ago and was tempted to do that again, but Donaldson should get a multiyear deal this offseason. Ryu, coming off a season in which he led the majors with a 2.32 ERA, might nonetheless end up undervalued for several reasons:
• Age and injury issues: He'll be entering his age-33 season and had Tommy John surgery as an amateur in 2004 and then shoulder and elbow injuries as he made only one start in 2015 and 2016.
• His non-elite strikeout rate. Ryu ranked 59th in strikeout rate out of 130 pitchers with at least 100 innings.
• His 5.40 ERA over his final seven regular-season starts, raising his ERA from 1.45 in early August.
Those are the negatives, but I like the positives:
• Ryu's elite walk rate. He had the second-lowest rate among those 130 pitchers. He doesn't beat himself.
• Grounders and soft contact. He ranked 10th in ground ball rate and eighth in lowest average exit velocity. His changeup has become one of the best weapons in baseball and he threw it a career-high 28% of the time in 2019.
• He has actually been mostly healthy the past three seasons, missing time in 2018 because of a groin injury, not an arm issue.
In some ways, the profile is similar to that of Dallas Keuchel, who settled for a one-year deal at midseason in 2019, but he's better than Keuchel and should have more interest. That might or might not come from the Dodgers, who will have plenty of starting pitching options with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Kenta Maeda, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Ross Stripling and Tony Gonsolin -- and maybe they pursue Cole as well (although the Dodgers have been reluctant to hand out big free-agent deals under Andrew Friedman).
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/280 ... gent-class
Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Was a fan of Cole but yes..... Bring on Adell, Cole and another starter and we are on the right path.
Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Adam wainwright resigns with the Cardinals ...Tony La Russa Angels Sr Advisor
i like it
i like it
Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Yasmani Grandal, White Sox agree to four-year, $73M deal
The Chicago White Sox have agreed to terms on a four-year, $73 million contract with free-agent All-Star catcher Yasmani Grandal, the team announced Thursday.
It is the biggest contract in the history of the White Sox franchise. Grandal, 31, will receive $18.25 million per season through 2023.
"He's such a quality guy," White Sox president Ken Williams said of Grandal. "And for him to understand our messaging, our goals, our path, and to say, 'I want to be a part of that and I'm going to commit to it early so we can move on to the next thing heading into the winter meetings,' [it] just shows what kind of character we're talking about."
Last offseason, Grandal turned down a $17.9 million qualifying offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers and reportedly declined a four-year, $60 million offer from the New York Mets.
He bet on himself to have a big year. It paid off.
After signing a one-year, $18.25 million contract with the Milwaukee Brewers, the switch-hitting Grandal posted career highs in homers (28) and RBIs (77) and earned his second All-Star appearance. He walked over 100 times to post a .380 OBP, which ranked first among major league catchers.
He also led all catchers in games played (153) and was second in extra-base hits (56), total bases (240) and RBIs.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/281 ... r-73m-deal
The Chicago White Sox have agreed to terms on a four-year, $73 million contract with free-agent All-Star catcher Yasmani Grandal, the team announced Thursday.
It is the biggest contract in the history of the White Sox franchise. Grandal, 31, will receive $18.25 million per season through 2023.
"He's such a quality guy," White Sox president Ken Williams said of Grandal. "And for him to understand our messaging, our goals, our path, and to say, 'I want to be a part of that and I'm going to commit to it early so we can move on to the next thing heading into the winter meetings,' [it] just shows what kind of character we're talking about."
Last offseason, Grandal turned down a $17.9 million qualifying offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers and reportedly declined a four-year, $60 million offer from the New York Mets.
He bet on himself to have a big year. It paid off.
After signing a one-year, $18.25 million contract with the Milwaukee Brewers, the switch-hitting Grandal posted career highs in homers (28) and RBIs (77) and earned his second All-Star appearance. He walked over 100 times to post a .380 OBP, which ranked first among major league catchers.
He also led all catchers in games played (153) and was second in extra-base hits (56), total bases (240) and RBIs.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/281 ... r-73m-deal
Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Cole? Lindor? Rendon? The realistic guide to the Yankees' offseason
Old way: Sign Gerrit Cole
New way: Give Michael King and Deivi Garcia an opportunity
During their run of 17 postseason appearances in 18 years from 1995 to 2012 -- including 13 division titles -- the Yankees never let money get in the way of signing a big free-agent pitcher. Among the starters they signed in those years were David Cone (re-signing him after initially acquiring him in a trade), David Wells, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens (bringing both back to New York), A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia.
After spending that $471 million in free agency resulted in an 84-78 record in 2014, the Yankees haven't played in that market. Sixteen players have signed for $100 million-plus, none of them landing with the Yankees. The $100 million pitchers the Yankees didn't sign: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Yu Darvish and Patrick Corbin. Certainly a mixed bag there, but with Scherzer in pinstripes, maybe the Yankees win it all in 2017 and 2019. The largest contract the Yankees have given out in the past five offseasons was the $86 million they gave Aroldis Chapman. The second-largest was $52 million to Chase Headley.
Of course, Cole is probably more Scherzer than Zimmermann. Maybe he's the pitcher that will get Hal to act like his dad. Plus, after getting under the luxury tax in 2018 to reset their tax rate, the Yankees were back over it in 2019. Their 2020 payroll currently sits at an estimated $196 million, including the $21.1 million they owe Ellsbury that they are shamefully trying to avoid paying.
That gives them about $35 million to spend to match last year's payroll. But they also have a lot of money coming off the books after 2020, including Ellsbury, Tanaka, Paxton, LeMahieu and possibly J.A. Happ (who has a vesting option). In other words, they could sign Cole, assume a one-year hike in payroll (which they can easily afford) and then revert to 2019 levels.
Now, Cole might not want to pitch in New York, and Strasburg will probably go back to the Nationals. The Yankees might also think they have enough starting pitching depth with a healthy Luis Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, Happ, Domingo German and Jordan Montgomery, plus Garcia (who struck out 165 in 111⅓ innings in the minors) and King (who battled injuries in 2019 but dominated the minors in 2018). New pitching coach Matt Blake comes over from Cleveland, where had just been promoted to director of pitching development. The Yankees might want to see if he can work with the pitchers they already have, similar to developing the likes Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac for the majors.
What happens: It still feels as if the Yankees will get a pitcher, although more likely one of the second-tier starters like Bumgarner, Wheeler, Michael Pineda or Dallas Keuchel. Bumgarner would be the shiny toy Yankees will like, but Paxton is a better pitcher right now than Bumgarner.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/281 ... -offseason
Old way: Sign Gerrit Cole
New way: Give Michael King and Deivi Garcia an opportunity
During their run of 17 postseason appearances in 18 years from 1995 to 2012 -- including 13 division titles -- the Yankees never let money get in the way of signing a big free-agent pitcher. Among the starters they signed in those years were David Cone (re-signing him after initially acquiring him in a trade), David Wells, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens (bringing both back to New York), A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia.
After spending that $471 million in free agency resulted in an 84-78 record in 2014, the Yankees haven't played in that market. Sixteen players have signed for $100 million-plus, none of them landing with the Yankees. The $100 million pitchers the Yankees didn't sign: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Yu Darvish and Patrick Corbin. Certainly a mixed bag there, but with Scherzer in pinstripes, maybe the Yankees win it all in 2017 and 2019. The largest contract the Yankees have given out in the past five offseasons was the $86 million they gave Aroldis Chapman. The second-largest was $52 million to Chase Headley.
Of course, Cole is probably more Scherzer than Zimmermann. Maybe he's the pitcher that will get Hal to act like his dad. Plus, after getting under the luxury tax in 2018 to reset their tax rate, the Yankees were back over it in 2019. Their 2020 payroll currently sits at an estimated $196 million, including the $21.1 million they owe Ellsbury that they are shamefully trying to avoid paying.
That gives them about $35 million to spend to match last year's payroll. But they also have a lot of money coming off the books after 2020, including Ellsbury, Tanaka, Paxton, LeMahieu and possibly J.A. Happ (who has a vesting option). In other words, they could sign Cole, assume a one-year hike in payroll (which they can easily afford) and then revert to 2019 levels.
Now, Cole might not want to pitch in New York, and Strasburg will probably go back to the Nationals. The Yankees might also think they have enough starting pitching depth with a healthy Luis Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, Happ, Domingo German and Jordan Montgomery, plus Garcia (who struck out 165 in 111⅓ innings in the minors) and King (who battled injuries in 2019 but dominated the minors in 2018). New pitching coach Matt Blake comes over from Cleveland, where had just been promoted to director of pitching development. The Yankees might want to see if he can work with the pitchers they already have, similar to developing the likes Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac for the majors.
What happens: It still feels as if the Yankees will get a pitcher, although more likely one of the second-tier starters like Bumgarner, Wheeler, Michael Pineda or Dallas Keuchel. Bumgarner would be the shiny toy Yankees will like, but Paxton is a better pitcher right now than Bumgarner.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/281 ... -offseason
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Hard no on Keuchel and Pineda. The others I’m fine with.
I think the big thing is that the go with what you got mentality has resulted in good, but not great teams missing the World Series. If they go out and sign Cole and still don’t make it, at least they can shut up all the detractors talking about how they went cheap and got what they paid for.
I think the big thing is that the go with what you got mentality has resulted in good, but not great teams missing the World Series. If they go out and sign Cole and still don’t make it, at least they can shut up all the detractors talking about how they went cheap and got what they paid for.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
This feels different than Harper/Machado.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Angels/Yankees bidding war for Cole.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Strasburg back to the Nats on a record deal.
The Cole number just went up I’m sure.
The Cole number just went up I’m sure.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Cole to the Yankees on a record deal.
It’s like Christmas came early!
It’s like Christmas came early!
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Wow, how good will the Yankees be? Might challenge that Seattle wins record?
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Not if they suffer injuries at the same rate as they did in ‘19.azcat49 wrote:Wow, how good will the Yankees be? Might challenge that Seattle wins record?
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
His contract is greater than the GDP of 4 countries.
Palau
Marshall Islands
Kiribati
Tuvalu
Palau
Marshall Islands
Kiribati
Tuvalu
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Arenado is available now?? The Rockies just signed him to that huge contract AND Rendon and Donaldson are free agents AND Kris Bryant is out there at a much cheaper price AND there are a lot of teams (like the Yankees) who have young 3rd Base talent.
Bad move Rocks. Should’ve traded him last year.
Bad move Rocks. Should’ve traded him last year.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
The market isnt much different than last year though. Machado and Donaldson were free agents. Bryant might be a free agent after this season based on his service time grievance. Also, Arenado was in the final year of his contract last year. He has an opt out after '21 season now and no trade, so you can make the case the trade market for him should be more plentiful this season.Chicat wrote:Arenado is available now?? The Rockies just signed him to that huge contract AND Rendon and Donaldson are free agents AND Kris Bryant is out there at a much cheaper price AND there are a lot of teams (like the Yankees) who have young 3rd Base talent.
Bad move Rocks. Should’ve traded him last year.
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Yeah, I don’t know about that. Unless the Rockies are planning to eat part of that contract, which to me defeats the purpose.TucsonClip wrote:The market isnt much different than last year though. Machado and Donaldson were free agents. Bryant might be a free agent after this season based on his service time grievance. Also, Arenado was in the final year of his contract last year. He has an opt out after '21 season now and no trade, so you can make the case the trade market for him should be more plentiful this season.Chicat wrote:Arenado is available now?? The Rockies just signed him to that huge contract AND Rendon and Donaldson are free agents AND Kris Bryant is out there at a much cheaper price AND there are a lot of teams (like the Yankees) who have young 3rd Base talent.
Bad move Rocks. Should’ve traded him last year.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Why would they eat any of the contract? He's 28, can opt out going into his age 31 season, or he declines and hes under contract until hes 36.Chicat wrote:Yeah, I don’t know about that. Unless the Rockies are planning to eat part of that contract, which to me defeats the purpose.TucsonClip wrote:The market isnt much different than last year though. Machado and Donaldson were free agents. Bryant might be a free agent after this season based on his service time grievance. Also, Arenado was in the final year of his contract last year. He has an opt out after '21 season now and no trade, so you can make the case the trade market for him should be more plentiful this season.Chicat wrote:Arenado is available now?? The Rockies just signed him to that huge contract AND Rendon and Donaldson are free agents AND Kris Bryant is out there at a much cheaper price AND there are a lot of teams (like the Yankees) who have young 3rd Base talent.
Bad move Rocks. Should’ve traded him last year.
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Why take Arenado at full freight while giving up top prospects when you can give up less and get Bryant, or even better, Miguel Andujar?TucsonClip wrote:Why would they eat any of the contract? He's 28, can opt out going into his age 31 season, or he declines and hes under contract until hes 36.Chicat wrote:Yeah, I don’t know about that. Unless the Rockies are planning to eat part of that contract, which to me defeats the purpose.TucsonClip wrote:The market isnt much different than last year though. Machado and Donaldson were free agents. Bryant might be a free agent after this season based on his service time grievance. Also, Arenado was in the final year of his contract last year. He has an opt out after '21 season now and no trade, so you can make the case the trade market for him should be more plentiful this season.Chicat wrote:Arenado is available now?? The Rockies just signed him to that huge contract AND Rendon and Donaldson are free agents AND Kris Bryant is out there at a much cheaper price AND there are a lot of teams (like the Yankees) who have young 3rd Base talent.
Bad move Rocks. Should’ve traded him last year.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Dodgers fans can't be happy with how this week is working out so far.
Of the 12 coaches, Rush picked the one whose fans have the deepest passion, the longest memories, the greatest lung capacity and … did I mention deep passion?
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
I hear ya, but Andujar isn't close to Arenado, and I'm still taking Nolan over Bryant every time. He's by far the better defender, not to mention the bat.Chicat wrote:Why take Arenado at full freight while giving up top prospects when you can give up less and get Bryant, or even better, Miguel Andujar?TucsonClip wrote:Why would they eat any of the contract? He's 28, can opt out going into his age 31 season, or he declines and hes under contract until hes 36.Chicat wrote:Yeah, I don’t know about that. Unless the Rockies are planning to eat part of that contract, which to me defeats the purpose.TucsonClip wrote:The market isnt much different than last year though. Machado and Donaldson were free agents. Bryant might be a free agent after this season based on his service time grievance. Also, Arenado was in the final year of his contract last year. He has an opt out after '21 season now and no trade, so you can make the case the trade market for him should be more plentiful this season.Chicat wrote:Arenado is available now?? The Rockies just signed him to that huge contract AND Rendon and Donaldson are free agents AND Kris Bryant is out there at a much cheaper price AND there are a lot of teams (like the Yankees) who have young 3rd Base talent.
Bad move Rocks. Should’ve traded him last year.
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Re: The Hot Stove '19/20
Which is why it's so perfect!Chicat wrote:Dodgers fans can't be happy with how this week is working out so far.
"Plus, why would I go to the NBA? Duke players suck in the pros."
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