Let the KenPom watch begin

HibachiZero · Post by **HibachiZero** » Sun Oct 26, 2014 8:20 pm

Not sure how he calculates this at the beginning of the season, but we start at 5.

http://kenpom.com/index.php

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:23 pm

Ken Pomeroy himself puts more stock in the pre-season AP poll than his own pre-season poll. His rankings gain value only with the accumulation of the data from several games played.

RichardCranium · Post by **RichardCranium** » Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:51 pm

Pomeroy ranking shows the gap is narrowing???? (Remember that thread from TOS??)

Final Pomeroy overall rankings (2015 is pre-season of course)

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 12:21 am

Send this to Paola Boivin.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Oct 27, 2014 9:45 am

All preseason ranks are garbage, including KenPom.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:38 am

Something seems off here...

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:42 am

Kenpom has a preseason bias for a while. From his explanation.

When is the influence of preseason ratings removed from the system?

As of 2018, it is 73 days from the date of the first game. This ends up being sometime around January 20th. However, the influence of the preseason ratings is gradually reduced between the first week of the season and this point, so that the influence of the preseason ratings is minimal in mid-January.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:45 pm

for many years, especially at its inception, I would argue against a rating that had multiple teams with loses ahead of undefeated power conf teams (as kenpom often does particularly in the first 12 games) and I was told I had to adjust my view of the data, and understand it’s a schedule on periods of time.

Spiff is correct, the dilution of some of the advanced metrics included in the first third are continuing to even out, as more data is submitted (games played possessions for and against) the rankings will make more sense.

at the end of the season Kenpom is a terrific indicator for seeding in the top sixteen seeds and overall final four contenders because of all the relevant data.

ive grown to like it more and more for what it is but had to make the adjustment that there will be data points correlated to rankings early that won’t make sense to my old school eye sometimes.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:49 pm

97cats wrote:for many years, especially at its inception, I would argue against a rating that had multiple teams with loses ahead of undefeated power conf teams (as kenpom often does particularly in the first 12 games) and I was told I had to adjust my view of the data, and understand it’s a schedule on periods of time.

Spiff is correct, the dilution of some of the advanced metrics included in the first third are continuing to even out, as more data is submitted (games played possessions for and against) the rankings will make more sense.

at the end of the season Kenpom is a terrific indicator for seeding in the top sixteen seeds and overall final four contenders because of all the relevant data.

ive grown to like it more and more for what it is.

Being #19 on O and #17 on D is a great sign for me. Having top level performance on both ends generally bodes very well for postseason performance. I know you have posted about that before.

You can see that in the results from Miller's teams. The 17-18 first round disaster came on the heels of a team that masked bad D with efficient O. Our best teams rated highly in both areas.

Frybry02 · Post by **Frybry02** » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:27 pm

Our D tanked to 41 after tonight. O climbed to 10

IndianaZonaFan · Post by **IndianaZonaFan** » Fri Nov 29, 2019 7:48 am

We had our flaws on defense, but how many teams are going to go in conscience from deep as a team against us? They were knocking down 3s when we played good defense. The Kenyon numbers won’t reflect that. We need a couple of really good defensive showings to finish out the week and we’re right back where we want to be

Phylek · Post by **Phylek** » Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:16 pm

Amazing how Arizona can drop 7 spots in the kenpom after a close win, but other teams lose and don't drop.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:38 pm

We dropping more tonight.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:43 pm

It’s November. Who fucking cares?

ByJoveByJingle · Post by **ByJoveByJingle** » Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:45 pm

Olsondogg wrote:It’s November. Who fucking cares?

The KenPomeranians.

Work to do, but every team I’ve seen has their own troubles.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:56 pm

Duke has nice kenpom metrics. Bet that makes the SFA layup hurt less.

Frybry02 · Post by **Frybry02** » Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:01 am

Olsondogg wrote:Duke has nice kenpom metrics. Bet that makes the SFA layup hurt less.

It is a November game, who cares?

It will be interesting to see come March what the committee thinks of the SFA loss. I doubt the committee will hold it against them.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:04 am

The KenPomeranians.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:58 am

19th overall, 6th in AdjO and 51st in AdjD.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:59 am

ChooChooCat wrote:19th overall, 6th in AdjO and 51st in AdjD.

Our D in Anaheim has taken a major hit.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:35 am

Longhorned wrote:The KenPomeranians.

The KenPomgnosticators

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Sat Nov 30, 2019 12:58 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
ChooChooCat wrote:19th overall, 6th in AdjO and 51st in AdjD.
Our D in Anaheim has taken a major hit.

I know we're going to say "these teams are just unconscious from three!" but also we look like shit out there. Slow on help defensive rotations and when we double we're slow to zone the open man and cover the passing lane. Lot of players doing a lot of watching and not "helping the helper."

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:50 pm

ByJoveByJingle wrote: The KenPomeranians.

short list post of the year

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:56 pm

One interesting trend. Our AdjD is 91.8.

From 2013-14 through 2017-18, that would have been a top ten level. This year, we're #50. 91.8 is pretty solid historically, but this year, it ranks abnormally low.

ByJoveByJingle · Post by **ByJoveByJingle** » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:20 am

From Bruinzone . . .

KenPom team ratings since 1997:

The top 25
1 Duke
2 Kentucky
3 Kansas
4 North Carolina
5 Arizona
6 Michigan St.
7 Villanova
8 Louisville
9 Florida
10 Texas
11 Ohio St.
12 Gonzaga
13 UCLA
14 Maryland
15 Syracuse
16 Wisconsin
17 Virginia
18 Indiana
19 Connecticut
20 Oregon
21 Purdue
22 Memphis
23 Illinois
24 Michigan
25 Xavier

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:22 am

A key indicator of multiple national championships is to come in 19th.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:23 am

Longhorned wrote:A key indicator of multiple national championships is to come in 19th.

Whoever the UCONN fan is that sold his soul to the devil for their ridiculous success must be one important son of a bitch.

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:28 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:One interesting trend. Our AdjD is 91.8.

From 2013-14 through 2017-18, that would have been a top ten level. This year, we're #50. 91.8 is pretty solid historically, but this year, it ranks abnormally low.

That's interesting. I'd guess that it's typical for AdjD to begin the season low and trend higher... seems more likely than this being a historically strong defensive start to the season for the entire sport.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:36 am

We don't play defense like Louisville plays defense. They looked like us in 14. We have that ability but wwe need to see more progression starting this Saturday

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:39 am

azcat49 wrote:We don't play defense like Louisville plays defense. They looked like us in 14. We have that ability but wwe need to see more progression starting this Saturday

They're pretty clearly the best team in the country. Only team in the single digits on KenPom offense and defense.

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:51 am

azcat49 wrote:We don't play defense like Louisville plays defense. They looked like us in 14. We have that ability but wwe need to see more progression starting this Saturday

They're packline is better than ours

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:26 am

RondaeShimmy wrote:
azcat49 wrote:We don't play defense like Louisville plays defense. They looked like us in 14. We have that ability but wwe need to see more progression starting this Saturday
They're packline is better than ours

They've got a 60% minutes continuity - top five among top 25 teams. Useful.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:46 am

YoDeFoe wrote:
RondaeShimmy wrote:
azcat49 wrote:We don't play defense like Louisville plays defense. They looked like us in 14. We have that ability but wwe need to see more progression starting this Saturday
They're packline is better than ours
They've got a 60% minutes continuity - top five among top 25 teams. Useful.

I wonder whether that A) limits potential further improvement throughout the season, or B) suggests further improvement will result in a defense in March that will blow our minds.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:43 pm

19 overall, 16 adjO, 39 AdjD

This weeks oppts

Nebraska Omaha
148 Overall, 109 AdjO, 227 AdjD

Gonzaga
9 Overall, 6 AdjO, 34 AdjD

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:16 am

15th overall, 13th AdjO, 43rd AdjD

Pac 12
Oregon 12
Colorado 42
Stanford 48
Washington 50
Oregon St 61
ASU 67
USC 68
Utah 107
UCLA 115
Washington St 136
Cal 187

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:04 am

That D needs to improve. Smh

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:44 am

CalStateTempe wrote:That D needs to improve. Smh

Actually, it's not too bad, IMO. As I posted above, a sub-92 AdjD will usually have you in the top 15. If we are able to maintain that level, it it a NC level when combined with a top 20 AdjO. We're also still shaking the lower preseason rank.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:47 am

Thanks spiff for the perspective

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:48 am

CalStateTempe wrote:That D needs to improve. Smh

I'm shocked!! Shocked, I tell you!! After all, it's December 16th!! WTF is he waiting for???

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:58 am

UA ranked 15th in the NET, which the selection committee uses https://www.azdesertswarm.com/basketbal ... d8LPSXu75U" target="_blank

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Mon Dec 16, 2019 11:10 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:That D needs to improve. Smh
Actually, it's not too bad, IMO. As I posted above, a sub-92 AdjD will usually have you in the top 15. If we are able to maintain that level, it it a NC level when combined with a top 20 AdjO. We're also still shaking the lower preseason rank.

I really appreciated that earlier post where you laid that out.

Also, in previous years, I seem to remember Wisconsin making those Final Fours with their AdjD in the 50s, even if they didn't win the whole thing.

ghostwhitehorse · Post by **ghostwhitehorse** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:42 pm

Merkin wrote:UA ranked 15th in the NET, which the selection committee uses https://www.azdesertswarm.com/basketbal ... d8LPSXu75U" target="_blank

Some more rankings. . .albeit of the subjective sort: https://www.azdesertswarm.com/basketbal ... acketology" target="_blank

Do I need to mention the identity of the outlier?

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:50 pm

Was the title of this thread to be sung to Rocky Horror Picture Show?

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:05 am

Arizona 12 AdjO 13 AdjD 31
Oregon 15 AdjO 6 AdjD 65
Ore St. 81 AdjO 45 AdjD 125
ASU. 91 AdjO 159 AdjD 54

Other Pac schools
Colo 32
Wash 50
Stan 52
USC. 61
Utah 100
UCLA 124
WSU 137
Cal 194

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:39 am

Feel like our defense is way ahead of our offense. That gives me hope as we will continue to hit quality opponents. In only the St Johns game did I feel we did not have a quality defensive effort. If we had been better on offense we would have won all three of those games we lost

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:41 pm

84Cat wrote:Arizona 12 AdjO 13 AdjD 31
Oregon 15 AdjO 6 AdjD 65
Ore St. 81 AdjO 45 AdjD 125
ASU. 91 AdjO 159 AdjD 54

Other Pac schools
Colo 32
Wash 50
Stan 52
USC. 61
Utah 100
UCLA 124
WSU 137
Cal 194

Does this include last nights game against suckU?

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:22 pm

CatFanOneMil wrote:
84Cat wrote:Arizona 12 AdjO 13 AdjD 31
Oregon 15 AdjO 6 AdjD 65
Ore St. 81 AdjO 45 AdjD 125
ASU. 91 AdjO 159 AdjD 54

Other Pac schools
Colo 32
Wash 50
Stan 52
USC. 61
Utah 100
UCLA 124
WSU 137
Cal 194
Does this include last nights game against suckU?

Yep, if you look now it even includes 3 games from today. Anyone can see the basic rankings on his home page

https://kenpom.com/" target="_blank

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:03 pm

84Cat wrote:
CatFanOneMil wrote:
84Cat wrote:Arizona 12 AdjO 13 AdjD 31
Oregon 15 AdjO 6 AdjD 65
Ore St. 81 AdjO 45 AdjD 125
ASU. 91 AdjO 159 AdjD 54

Other Pac schools
Colo 32
Wash 50
Stan 52
USC. 61
Utah 100
UCLA 124
WSU 137
Cal 194
Does this include last nights game against suckU?
Yep, if you look now it even includes 3 games from today. Anyone can see the basic rankings on his home page

https://kenpom.com/" target="_blank

Looking at the Kenpom today Oregon is trending the wrong direction...the biggest difference is in our adjD...they're now 66 and we are 31...

Apparently playing AsUck does not do anything for your ratings...however losing to Colorado is not a good trend.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:11 pm

Interesting match up tonight with strength vs strength. Their offense against our defense

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:33 am

Arizona loses, idiots go apeshit and Arizona moves up from 12 to 11

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