Official Bracketology Thread

AZCatGirl · Post by **AZCatGirl** » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:32 pm

To be fair, neither team would beat Gonzaga anyway.

IndianaZonaFan · Post by **IndianaZonaFan** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:50 am

I like the Warren Nolan version better. He is doing 100 simulations per matchup and giving the win to the team who wins the most out of 100 simulations.

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:07 am

IndianaZonaFan wrote:I like the Warren Nolan version better. He is doing 100 simulations per matchup and giving the win to the team who wins the most out of 100 simulations.

So, imagine how that would have played out in the 1997 Sweet 16 U of A vs KU...

... That’s exactly the opposite of how single elimination basketball tournaments, in fact, work!!!

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:03 am

Guess its time to take my 2020 poster off the wall. Oh wait I did that before the reg season ended

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:28 pm

Ducks top the Zags.

IndianaZonaFan · Post by **IndianaZonaFan** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:12 am

pc in NM wrote:
IndianaZonaFan wrote:I like the Warren Nolan version better. He is doing 100 simulations per matchup and giving the win to the team who wins the most out of 100 simulations.
So, imagine how that would have played out in the 1997 Sweet 16 U of A vs KU...

... That’s exactly the opposite of how single elimination basketball tournaments, in fact, work!!!

Sim-u-la-tions. It doesn’t matter any way. We “would have” lost to creighton anyway. Lol

ByJoveByJingle · Post by **ByJoveByJingle** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:19 am

Lost to Creighton by 1 in the Sweet 16. Sweet 16 was my early season prediction for this team.

IndianaZonaFan · Post by **IndianaZonaFan** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:59 am

ByJoveByJingle wrote:Lost to Creighton by 1 in the Sweet 16. Sweet 16 was my early season prediction for this team.

My preseason hopes we’re for a F4, before the BWill news. Just sad.

Other Injuries that hurt us bad:
BAsh- 2013-‘14
Gilbert- 2000-‘01
Ray Smith- 2015-‘16
Ray Smith- 2016-‘17
Parrom- 2011-‘12 and 2012-‘13 (never really was the same)
Probably missing others (sure feels like more)

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:04 am

IndianaZonaFan wrote:
pc in NM wrote:
IndianaZonaFan wrote:I like the Warren Nolan version better. He is doing 100 simulations per matchup and giving the win to the team who wins the most out of 100 simulations.
So, imagine how that would have played out in the 1997 Sweet 16 U of A vs KU...

... That’s exactly the opposite of how single elimination basketball tournaments, in fact, work!!!
Sim-u-la-tions. It doesn’t matter any way. We “would have” lost to creighton anyway. Lol

1) Run 100 simulations
2) Assign a number to each - 1-100
3) Select one with a random number generator

This would better approximate actual behavior

Except for New Mexico Lobos - they will always lose on first weekend, Period.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Wed May 13, 2020 5:45 pm

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Wed May 13, 2020 7:39 pm

pc in NM wrote:
IndianaZonaFan wrote:I like the Warren Nolan version better. He is doing 100 simulations per matchup and giving the win to the team who wins the most out of 100 simulations.
So, imagine how that would have played out in the 1997 Sweet 16 U of A vs KU...

... That’s exactly the opposite of how single elimination basketball tournaments, in fact, work!!!

Great. So Arizona doesn’t lose to Santa Clara in ‘93, or Miami in ‘95, or Oklahoma in ‘99, or Wisky in ‘00 and ‘14, etc....

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Thu May 14, 2020 8:35 am

Irish27 wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Our roster additions clearly getting some respect.

I hope the Pac 12 has a very good logistics team and plan in place (or soon to be in place) or our 2020-21 hoops season could be jeopardized. Lots to do before the fall.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Wed Jun 24, 2020 6:23 pm

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:37 pm

http://m.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?src=desktop&wjb" target="_blank

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:42 am

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:20 am

Fuck that first four bullshit.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:00 am

Elite

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:43 pm

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Tue Dec 08, 2020 7:36 pm

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:08 am

Team rankings now has us at a 40% chance to make the tourney.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... edictions/

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:35 am

dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:08 am Team rankings now has us at a 40% chance to make the tourney.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... edictions/

Pac is having a brutal non-conference performance. I think only the top three Pac teams get in; a fourth would be very bubbly. Always depends on what's happening in other leagues, of course, but the Pac is arguably the weakest "power conference" at the moment.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sat Dec 26, 2020 3:32 pm

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

No sign of AZ.

Colorado is an 8 seed and Stanford a 10.

The upcoming game against Colorado is a must win if the Cats harbor any hope of making the dance.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Dec 27, 2020 6:31 pm

dmjcat wrote: ↑Sat Dec 26, 2020 3:32 pm http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

No sign of AZ.

Colorado is an 8 seed and Stanford a 10.

The upcoming game against Colorado is a must win if the Cats harbor any hope of making the dance.

I've made my peace with missing this year's tournament. This team just feels very "work in progress" to me. The Stanford game seemed to expose our problems on defense, and that was against a team that can't be better than 3rd or 4th in the Pac. Colorado is probably as good as Stanford, maybe better.

I'm not sure how many coaches could take this AZ roster and finish top three in league and/or earn a tourney bid. In fairness to Sean, he's sitting at 6-1. He's won all the games he was supposed to, which doesn't happen every year. Now it's going to get much harder with the WA road trip after Colorado, and then the L.A. schools at McKale. How many of these next five will we win? I'd be pretty happy with 3-2, but 2-3 feels more likely.

Could be worse, guys. Look at Kentucky.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Dec 28, 2020 10:08 am

dmjcat wrote: ↑Sat Dec 26, 2020 3:32 pm http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

No sign of AZ.

Colorado is an 8 seed and Stanford a 10.

The upcoming game against Colorado is a must win if the Cats harbor any hope of making the dance.

We're in Next 4 out, meaning between 5th and 8th team to miss an at large. It seems fair given we've beaten the teams we're supposed to and lost our only real challenge.

We need to win the challenge games to make it. Colorado is important in that equation. They have good numbers, so a win would go a long ways towards establishing that we're competitive.

Making 3's and frees is a huge deal. Stanford is a major what if in terms of a likely win if we hit ft's.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Tue Dec 29, 2020 9:00 am

Big win last night.

UA now up to #38 with a 67% chance of making the NCAA tournament

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:45 pm

Now up to zero chance.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Tue Dec 29, 2020 6:11 pm

Predictable really. We are guilty of the Book violation as we failed to control our assistant coach. No dodging that. I think taking a hit for that will probably ensure we are viewed as taking steps, besides terminating the assistant coach, to address this conduct. Hopefully this will start to open recruiting a bit. I like this team and I want Sean as coach.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:08 am

I know the Cats are not eligible to be in it this year, but when was the last time we saw Duke in the "Next Four Out" column?

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... acketology

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:52 am

Irish27 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:08 am I know the Cats are not eligible to be in it this year, but when was the last time we saw Duke in the "Next Four Out" column?
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... acketology

Where is Final Four contender ASU??

Oh, right....

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:24 am

Irish27 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:08 am I know the Cats are not eligible to be in it this year, but when was the last time we saw Duke in the "Next Four Out" column?
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... acketology

That's still too generous. Their best win? Bellarmine?

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:31 pm

No Kentucky either

IndianaZonaFan · Post by **IndianaZonaFan** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:51 am

Lunardi saying we would be an 8 seed at the moment, if not ineligible.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:38 am

IndianaZonaFan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:51 am Lunardi saying we would be an 8 seed at the moment, if not ineligible.

You'd hope this would shut down the people acting like our self-imposed tourney ban was meaningless, but good luck with that.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:02 pm

IndianaZonaFan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:51 am Lunardi saying we would be an 8 seed at the moment, if not ineligible.

If things end up the way I expect them to, and if they actually do a 68 team tourney, I think we'd sneak in as a 8/9 seed. If we somehow beat UCLA and Oregon down the stretch, even higher.

This was not a throw-away year for us. We turned out to be pretty solid.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:07 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:02 pm
IndianaZonaFan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:51 am Lunardi saying we would be an 8 seed at the moment, if not ineligible.
If things end up the way I expect them to, and if they actually do a 68 team tourney, I think we'd sneak in as a 8/9 seed. If we somehow beat UCLA and Oregon down the stretch, even higher.

This was not a throw-away year for us. We turned out to be pretty solid.

It's always hard to tell bc the no tourney thing changes so much, but I could see us being a not fun matchup for a 1 or 2 seed in the round of 32.

We're a fairly solid top 20 offense, so if we caught a top team on a bad shooting day, we could be scary. Guys like Mathurin, Akinjo and Tubelis are coming into their own as scoring firepower.

Bottom line, I hope we see the base cast return and 2022's tourney should be very interesting.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 2:09 pm

[/quote]

It's always hard to tell bc the no tourney thing changes so much, but I could see us being a not fun matchup for a 1 or 2 seed in the round of 32.

We're a fairly solid top 20 offense, so if we caught a top team on a bad shooting day, we could be scary. Guys like Mathurin, Akinjo and Tubelis are coming into their own as scoring firepower.

Bottom line, I hope we see the base cast return and 2022's tourney should be very interesting.
[/quote]

It's all about '22, right? If we can somehow keep this roster in tact, we've got a real shot at special season.

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:13 pm

Need more ooomph from Jordan Brown. I was expecting a bit more dominance from him as a McD's All-American. He'll be a junior next year so hopefully more polished and confident. Same goes for everyone else on the roster.

Hopefully Mathurin doesn't get stupid and turn pro early. Two more years of college and he's a top 10 pick.

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Fri Jan 29, 2021 10:58 am

2021 Tourney rules from Matt Norlander:

All NCAAT-qualifying teams within 350 miles of Indianapolis will be required to travel by charter bus. And in an effort to combat COVID-19 positives that could surface after arrival in Indianapolis, teams’ traveling parties will split up into three buses

For teams flying, private airports (and private planes, as always) will be used. As I’ve previously reported, eating/ drinking while traveling via bus/plane is not allowed. Goggles + face shields will also be provided/suggested as extra measures.

Auto-bid teams determined prior to Saturday, March 13, will be asked to arrive in Indy on March 13. Teams earning auto bids early enough on Saturday afternoon/evening will immediately depart from their league championship, provided they can arrive in Indy later Saturday night.

I’m told all 31 auto bids will arrive in Indy Sat. or Sun. LATE Sunday and all-day-Monday departures will be reserved for the 37 at-large teams. Meaning even if a team is considered a lock, protocol is to not leave for Indy until the bracket reveal officially confirms inclusion.

The NCAA is asking teams with "high probability" of being selected as at-larges to stay in their conference tournament location between the end of their league tourney and the bracket reveal. (This would primarily only become tricky if, say, Gonzaga didn't get the auto bid.)

The travel-party size capacity is 34 for all NCAAT teams. If you go to the NCAAT, you are Tier 1. As previously reported, you need seven straight negatives to be able to depart for Indy. Bands will not be allowed at the NCAAT through at least the E8; decisions on F4 not yet made.

Teams will only be allowed to eat in designated rooms at their hotels for the entirety of their stay in Indy. Every person will have their own hotel room. Obviously, no outside guests will be allowed—that is allowed into the hotel, period, that aren’t on a team or with the NCAA.

The Indiana Convention Center will have 12 practice courts. (Teams will also practice at NCAAT venues.) In a twist, coaches will not be allowed to scout next-round opponents; all scouting will be done via video, which the NCAA will supply to teams that make it to the next round.

What happens if there are positive cases during the tournament? Does a team forfeit?

In short—protocols aiming to be so sternly regulated that, with the help of wearable tracking devices that will provide objective data on distancing, one positive won't boot a team. All forfeiture contingencies still TBD.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:28 pm

What. A. Shitshow. If they actually pull this off without forfeitures, it will be a damn miracle.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:12 pm

If they run out of teams and have to let us and auburn play, do we still get credit for self imposing??

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sat Feb 27, 2021 12:10 pm

Cats would be at #39, https://bracketologists.com.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:25 pm

Man I miss playing in the tourney. This time of year is supposed to be all about bracketology and getting ready for the dance. Can't believe it will have been nearly three years since our last tourney game, provided we get there next season. And provided there's no further postseason ban.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:27 pm

insane that if we go next season it will have been 4 years since we were in the tournament. But it looks like this season we probably would've been in as a like 9-10 seed or something.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:33 pm

ASUHATER! wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:27 pm insane that if we go next season it will have been 4 years since we were in the tournament. But it looks like this season we probably would've been in as a like 9-10 seed or something.

You're right: 4 years! Jesus. I'd forgotten we didn't get there in '19.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:02 am

Today is the day we look so much forward to, but not this year. Hopefully next year will be different. Meanwhile, here is Lunardi's latest bracket, http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology.
I know we don't want to see Kansas win it, but another school I will not be pulling for is Illinois. 2005 might of been 16 years ago, but that loss still stings.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:20 am

First congrats to Oregon State as in adds another PAC team to the mix. My hope is that the Zags pull it out and become the first school to go undefeated for the entire season in a long long time.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:35 am

https://tucson.com/sports/arizonawildca ... -top-story

In or out? Experts weigh whether Wildcats would've made NCAA Tournament if not for ban
Bruce Pascoe Mar 13, 2021 Updated 1 hr ago

Bruce Pascoe
On top of his marketing work at St. Joseph’s University, serving as color analyst for the Hawks’ radio broadcasts and assuming his now-famous role as an ESPN’s resident bracketologist, Joe Lunardi found himself with a little side hobby during the 2020-21 season.

It was watching the Arizona Wildcats make a hypothetical dance in and around the NCAA Tournament bubble during a season in which they self-imposed a postseason ban.

“Have been tracking Arizona all season,” Lunardi said in an email to the Star, when asked about the Wildcats’ would-be chances, adding “waiting for this question!”

As of earlier this week, Lunardi said the Wildcats would have been No. 44 on his seed list — making them a No. 11 seed. That’s pretty close to the bubble. Still, Lunardi said even if upsets stole a few at-large berths this week, the Wildcats would likely be no worse than one of the last four teams in.

Not everyone believed the Wildcats could breathe quite as easy. Kevin Pauga’s KPI rankings had Arizona as a No. 12 seed, earning the fifth-to-last at-large spot, while Luke Benz’s computerized formula spit out UA as a No. 12 with the second-to-last at-large bid in front of only SMU.

CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm probably would have thrown the Wildcats somewhere in that mix, too.

“Honestly haven’t looked at them in that level of detail but I would describe them as a bubble team,” Palm said in an email to the Star. “I can’t do much more than that. They aren’t really in my system.”

Of course, the Wildcats aren’t in any officially human-monitored system, especially the one run by the NCAA selection committee. The UA administration announced on Dec. 29 it would self-impose a postseason ban; the Wildcats didn’t play in the Pac-12 Tournament and are ineligible for the NCAAs. As a result, they were quickly deleted from most postseason conversations.

“We would not be talking about teams that have self-sanctioned themselves and are taking themselves out of the tournament,” said Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart, this year’s selection committee chair, said when asked if taking Arizona out a month into the season required an adjustment. “We only talk about those teams that have that are eligible for the tournament and have played the appropriate games and all of those foundational pieces that we have to go for. So we would not have a conversation about Arizona from the beginning.”

Arizona coach Sean Miller may have done just enough to get Arizona in as one of the final at-large teams in the NCAA Tournament had the Wildcats not instituted a self-imposed postseason ban.

The timing of Arizona’s Dec. 29 ban was fascinating. By beating Colorado 88-74 a day earlier in what became a Quadrant 1 opportunity, the Wildcats had just begun to look like an NCAA Tournament team for the first time.

Less than two weeks later, the Wildcats were swept by USC and UCLA at home, drastically hurting their would-be tournament chances, and a string of five losses in seven games from late January through Feb. 18 probably would have put UA outside the bubble.

Then the Wildcats upset USC 81-72 in Los Angeles on Feb. 20 to pick up a second Quad 1 win, swept Washington State and Washington at home and lost a season finale at Oregon that at least helped their strength of schedule. They finished 17-9 and alone in fifth place at 11-9 in the Pac-12.

Had they played in the Pac-12 Tournament as a No. 5 seed this week, UA’s recent history suggests it would have beaten No. 12 Cal in a first round game, then lost to UCLA in the quarterfinals — probably a wash in terms of Selection Sunday resume.

So the Wildcats were probably in. But they’ll never know for sure.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:42 am

We were right there. Seeing UCLA make the play-in makes me wonder if the NCAA respects the Pac enough to put us in, but our metrics suggest we would have been in.

I tend to think the Pac tourney would have decided it.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:47 am

Yeah we would've been in. Probably as a like 10 seed or play in or something but we would've been in. ESPN is to blame

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:07 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:42 am We were right there. Seeing UCLA make the play-in makes me wonder if the NCAA respects the Pac enough to put us in, but our metrics suggest we would have been in.

I tend to think the Pac tourney would have decided it.

After seeing the seedings I have serious doubts that we would have made it. If we did we would have been the last team (or 2) in.

UCLA, which swept us during the season, was one of the last teams in as an 11 seed (in a play in game). We would have definitely seeded below them.

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