Official Bracketology Thread

[Chicat]

I think the committee has decided that as long as Zaga plays and beats some good teams in the non-conference, their conference strength of schedule is largely irrelevant and they’re not going to punish the basketball program because the school doesn’t want to try and field a football team so they can join a P5 conference. And I think it’s the right move.

[EastCoastCat]

I have this funny feeling we play the Zags in the Tourney this year. Can you imagine the hype? Similar to K meeting up with Bobby Knight in '87.

[Alieberman]

I think the zags are clearly the best team in basketball this year.

I'm going with The Suns

[Beachcat97]

I think the zags are clearly the best team in basketball this year.

They haven't lost since 12/4!

I agree and think they could conceivably drop a game to St. Mary's and still end up the top overall seed. The only way I see that being in jeopardy is if AZ or Auburn wins out, including their conference tourneys.

Unrelated, but I don't think Duke is currently in the mix for a 1 seed. Others ahead of him would have to really tank over the next few weeks.

AZ, Auburn, Kansas, Baylor, Purdue

Three of the above will be #1 seeds.

[RondaeShimmy]

They're clearly the best team, notice the huge gap in kenpom raw efficiency numbers

N°1 Gonzaga: +34.58
N°2 Arizona: +29.70
N°3 Kentucky: +28.40
N°4 Baylor: +27.85
N°5 Auburn: +26.09

Last year Gonzaga + Baylor were also clearly ahead of the pack, similar to this year.

[Beachcat97]

I like Few. Always have. He's going to get his national title eventually. This year he's got as good a chance as any prior.

[prh]

Gonzaga will always be way ahead in KP efficiency because it over-weights margin, and Gonzaga beats WCC teams by 50 without even blinking

[Beachcat97]

Gonzaga will always be way ahead in KP efficiency because it over-weights margin, and Gonzaga beats WCC teams by 50 without even blinking

I get that, but I've watched this team enough this year to know that they're legit. To beat them, we'd need to shoot at least our normal FG%, and we'd need to catch a little luck with them being cold for a few stretches. Holmgren has steadily gotten better, and Timme may be the nation's most valuable player. I would LOVE to play them.

[97cats]

Gonzaga league schedule lets them down come tournament time - less of that over the last few years, but its a factor they play nobody for a three months leading into the NCAA's

[Beachcat97]

Gonzaga league schedule lets them down come tournament time - less of that over the last few years, but its a factor they play nobody for a three months leading into the NCAA's

Like you said, it's been less a factor the last few years. They curb stomped ucla in November and have also beaten Texas and Texas Tech. And St. Mary's is always decent.

Not sure I'm ready to pick the Zags to win it all just yet. Need to see the brackets first. But they're definitely in that small group who can win it.

[SabinoDrifter]

Gonzaga is -105 to make the Final Four and the next closest is Arizona at +200

[CatFanOneMil]

Gonzaga has experience in most positions...the one thing I would say they lack is being battle hardened in physical games...

When they played Alabama Timme couldn't stop Shackleford...against Duke he ran into Moore and Banchero...basically give Timme a SOLID forward who is physical and he isn't the hyped up player he is in WCC...

Larson, Tubelis are just as physical if not more than he is...I think if you contain him a little bit and then have players that can run as well, and also have shot blockers like we do then Gonzaga is not the behemoth everyone thinks they are.

Teams that are as physical and get out and run and have rim protection have beat them, that formula does not exist in their conference.

[Captain Obvious]

I think the zags are clearly the best team in basketball this year.

Clearly the best team? Being the best team is one thing. Being the best team at the right time and having favorable match-ups dictate who wins championships. IMHO we match up very well with Gonzaga.

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Gonzaga will always be way ahead in KP efficiency because it over-weights margin, and Gonzaga beats WCC teams by 50 without even blinking

I get that, but I've watched this team enough this year to know that they're legit. To beat them, we'd need to shoot at least our normal FG%, and we'd need to catch a little luck with them being cold for a few stretches. Holmgren has steadily gotten better, and Timme may be the nation's most valuable player. I would LOVE to play them.

Let's say this, Holmgren has steadily put up better numbers against teams that do not have an answer for him, we have a couple that can bang with him inside and are fleet footed and long enough to give him troubles on the perimeter. Not saying we win that game, but who in the WCC has anyone to even make him work for his dinner?

[RichardCranium]

I think the committee has decided that as long as Zaga plays and beats some good teams in the non-conference, their conference strength of schedule is largely irrelevant and they’re not going to punish the basketball program because the school doesn’t want to try and field a football team so they can join a P5 conference. And I think it’s the right move.

Here's a thought experiment - I know its "impossible".

Suppose Gonzaga and Boise State entered into an Alliance (a full merger to "Pacific Northwestern University" is a bit too far, but lets call it "PNWU" anyway". Gonzaga plays basketball, Boise State plays football (and drops its basketball program - which I know has had some success in the Big Sky).

Now PNWU applies to the PAC12. Would the PAC12 be improved by swapping out Washington State for PNWU?

The TV audience numbers would be improved as Spokane + Boise is bigger than Pullman, right? Gonzaga and Boise State would both benefit from greater exposure (I know P12 has no exposure anyway, but we are already suspending disbelief) and the P5 competition.

[RaisingArizona]

Gonzaga should probably be considered the favorite but they're not nearly as good as they were last year IMO. Their 3 point shooting is now merely solid as opposed to terrific. They're not nearly as quick or athletic on the perimeter. Holmgren is a unicorn beyond anything that they've ever had but as a team I'm going with '20-'21.

The one thing I'm not quite certain of is what to do with Kerr on defense when he's in the game. Otherwise I think we have answers whereas their starting wings and Timme have some lateral quickness/athleticism deficiencies when guarding our guys.

[Beachcat97]

Can probably cross Baylor off the list of possible #1s after tonight.

[97cats]

teams left with legitimate chance at #1 Seed (in order):

drivers seat

Gonzaga
Arizona
Auburn

in contention

Kansas
Kentucky
Purdue

------cutline - cutline - cutline - cutline-------

Duke
Texas Tech
Baylor
Tennessee
UCLA
Providence
Houston
Wisconsin
Villanova
Southern California
LSU
Illinois
Texas
Alabama
Ohio State
Arkansas

[Beachcat97]

Excellent break down, 97. The picture’s getting clearer with seemingly each passing day this week.

[97cats]

there is obv a lock category too - Gonzaga is pretty close and if AZ holds serve this weekend they will all but be a lock as well. if Auburn plays now through Tennessee undefeated and beats the Vols in Knoxville on the 25th (something Kentucky & Arizona couldnt) they will move to permanent lock status - Tigers visit Florida and host Ole Miss prior and should handle both those games.

[Alieberman]

Great breakdown of potential #1s at this point

Only disagreement you would get from me is that I would put Duke above the cut line simply because the ACC is really down this year and besides The Zags, they may have the easiest path of the top 8 to go undefeated the rest of the way (which they would have to do to get a #1)

[97cats]

Great breakdown of potential #1s at this point

Only disagreement you would get from me is that I would put Duke above the cut line simply because the ACC is really down this year and besides The Zags, they may have the easiest path of the top 8 to go undefeated the rest of the way (which they would have to do to get a #1)

yes and yes! their schedule is a double edged sword.

yes they have wins over Kentucky the first game of the year and Gonzaga on a neutral floor over thxgiving, but they have three losses to unranked opponents: at Florida State, vs Miami, and vs Virginia and a loss to Ohio State which is a quad 1 loss.

but, those unranked losses at home loom large and will ultimately keep them just off the one line unless there is a huge collapse ahead of them, cause to your point, those ACC teams are not good, the conf is down this year. the Devils five remaining regular season and and ACC Tournament games could all be vs unranked opponents.

so the non-chance to win resume building games cause the conf sucks will continue to hurt them in regards to the number one line, but Duke should be squarly on the two line in the East or South Region to annoy Arizona.

[Olsondogg]

I think the zags are clearly the best team in basketball this year.

Clearly the best team? Being the best team is one thing. Being the best team at the right time and having favorable match-ups dictate who wins championships. IMHO we match up very well with Gonzaga.

Tell me you haven’t watched a zags game this year without saying so.

[MountainCat]

....but Duke should be squarly on the two line in the East or South Region to annoy Arizona.

...Coach K's greatest fear! Some how if that happens, my bet is he would decide to retire a day early (oops, I mean he would get sick, or his back would go out on him).

[Alieberman]

For sure it seems like Duke is a #2 lock... I just always assume Duke is going to get special treatment and somehow end up with a better seeding than it deserves.

[Olsondogg]

Provided Arizona gets a 1 seed, I’d love to have Purdont or Dook as the 2 in the region.

[97cats]

For sure it seems like Duke is a #2 lock... I just always assume Duke is going to get special treatment and somehow end up with a better seeding than it deserves.

100% i agree and there is that possibility in the shadows with it being K's last year blahblah and the committee and Duke being Duke...i mean, they are on TV more than Leave it to Beava re-runs.

but i think they keep it low key and put them as the #2 seed in the East or South under the radar but still protected.

[dmjcat]

there is obv a lock category too - Gonzaga is pretty close and if AZ holds serve this weekend they will all but be a lock as well. if Auburn plays now through Tennessee undefeated and beats the Vols in Knoxville on the 25th (something Kentucky & Arizona couldnt) they will move to permanent lock status - Tigers visit Florida and host Ole Miss prior and should handle both those games.

Disagree about the UA being a lock solely on winning this weekend. If we crap the bed and lose to Utah and/or Colorado the next week we will be bounced off the one line faster than the speed of light.

[Beachcat97]

there is obv a lock category too - Gonzaga is pretty close and if AZ holds serve this weekend they will all but be a lock as well. if Auburn plays now through Tennessee undefeated and beats the Vols in Knoxville on the 25th (something Kentucky & Arizona couldnt) they will move to permanent lock status - Tigers visit Florida and host Ole Miss prior and should handle both those games.

Disagree about the UA being a lock solely on winning this weekend. If we crap the bed and lose to Utah and/or Colorado the next week we will be bounced off the one line faster than the speed of light.

Agree completely, and it would just mean we’d need to win the Pac tourney to get a #1 seed. Losing to Colorado or Utah (neither is making the tourney) would greatly jeopardize a #1. Losing to USC…not as much.

[EastCoastCat]

Just...don't...lose....at...home.

[RondaeShimmy]

but Duke should be squarly on the two line in the East or South Region to annoy Arizona.

Lunardi has them as the #2 out West with Gonzaga.

Probably because they're a weak 2 seed closer to a 3 seed than a 1 and Gonzaga gets the weakest one in the snake draft of 2s.

Arizona is pretty much locked in (if they get the 1 seed in the south) with Baylor as it's 2 seed.

[azcat49]

Wilner’s fearless prediction of Utah beating AZ looms. I don’t see it and I think we head to the tourney (PAC) at 28-3 at worst

[RondaeShimmy]

This is how the snake draft of seeds will go imo

1. Gonzaga - West
1. Auburn - Midwest
1. Arizona - South
1. Kentucky/Purdue - East
2. Kentucky/Purdue - East
2. Kansas - Midwest
2. Baylor - South
2. Duke - West

Kentucky and Purdue are going to be 1 and 2 in the east. Kansas is above Baylor but is closer to the Midwest so they go with auburn (if Arizona overpasses auburn this is point is moot but same result), Baylor gets the 2 seed with Arizona and stays close to home and duke is left as the last 2 seed and has to go west

[Alieberman]

If Kansas wins the Big 12 without too much bloodshed to end the season, I have a tough time thinking they won't get a #1

[97cats]

This is how the snake draft of seeds will go imo

1. Gonzaga - West
1. Auburn - Midwest
1. Arizona - South
1. Kentucky/Purdue - East
2. Kentucky/Purdue - East
2. Kansas - Midwest
2. Baylor - South
2. Duke - West

Kentucky and Purdue are going to be 1 and 2 in the east. Kansas is above Baylor but is closer to the Midwest so they go with auburn (if Arizona overpasses auburn this is point is moot but same result), Baylor gets the 2 seed with Arizona and stays close to home and duke is left as the last 2 seed and has to go west

i agree with the above good post however i think kansas is a number one as well perhaps and if Duke runs the table while Kansas, Purdue and Baylor or Kentucky lose another they will move to the top of the two line. obv if they lose again they wont but their schedule is not difficult. Arizona is in the drivers seat thats for sure.

[Olsondogg]

there is obv a lock category too - Gonzaga is pretty close and if AZ holds serve this weekend they will all but be a lock as well. if Auburn plays now through Tennessee undefeated and beats the Vols in Knoxville on the 25th (something Kentucky & Arizona couldnt) they will move to permanent lock status - Tigers visit Florida and host Ole Miss prior and should handle both those games.

Disagree about the UA being a lock solely on winning this weekend. If we crap the bed and lose to Utah and/or Colorado the next week we will be bounced off the one line faster than the speed of light.

This is true. Arizona lost at ucla and there was a collective “is Arizona even good” reaction. Furthermore there is doubt that any of our quad 1 wins are even good.

Losing to anyone on our schedule going forward is a death knell outside of maybe usc

[Beachcat97]

If Kansas wins the Big 12 without too much bloodshed to end the season, I have a tough time thinking they won't get a #1

Gonzaga is the top overall seed. The other three #1s will be from this group: AZ, Purdue, Auburn, Kentucky, Kansas.

I agree with those saying Duke would need a lot of help (and luck) to snag a #1.

One team no one's talking about -- not as a high seed, just in general -- is Villanova. They've quietly had another fantastic season, with many good wins: @Tennessee (where AZ and UK lost), Xavier (twice), @Seton Hall, UConn, @Providence.

They're not as loaded as in past seasons, but I always feel a little uneasy picking against Wright in the tourney.

[Beachcat97]

there is obv a lock category too - Gonzaga is pretty close and if AZ holds serve this weekend they will all but be a lock as well. if Auburn plays now through Tennessee undefeated and beats the Vols in Knoxville on the 25th (something Kentucky & Arizona couldnt) they will move to permanent lock status - Tigers visit Florida and host Ole Miss prior and should handle both those games.

Disagree about the UA being a lock solely on winning this weekend. If we crap the bed and lose to Utah and/or Colorado the next week we will be bounced off the one line faster than the speed of light.

This is true. Arizona lost at ucla and there was a collective “is Arizona even good” reaction. Furthermore there is doubt that any of our quad 1 wins are even good.

Losing to anyone on our schedule going forward is a death knell outside of maybe usc

The skepticism, imo, is just a residual effect from the Pac being a little weaker in recent years. Nevermind the fact that the Pac had four teams in the S16 last year.

May take a string of strong tourney performances for the Pac to change this perception.

[RondaeShimmy]

If Kansas wins the Big 12 without too much bloodshed to end the season, I have a tough time thinking they won't get a #1

Over who? If Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona win out or at minimum 1 loss lets say in the conference tournament, the top 3 teams are set at 1. And you can't put Kansas over Kentucky who just blew out Kansas at Kansas.

Only hope for them is if Arizona and/or Kentucky losses several more times and they can win it over Purdue.

[Beachcat97]

If Kansas wins the Big 12 without too much bloodshed to end the season, I have a tough time thinking they won't get a #1

Over who? If Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona win out or at minimum 1 loss lets say in the conference tournament, the top 3 teams are set at 1. And you can't put Kansas over Kentucky who just blew out Kansas at Kansas.

Only hope for them is if Arizona and/or Kentucky losses several more times and they can win it over Purdue.

If Kansas wins the Big 12, they're getting a #1, regardless of what Kentucky does.

[84Cat]

What about Houston? They are #4 in the Net rankings. Kansas is #8

[RondaeShimmy]

If Kansas wins the Big 12 without too much bloodshed to end the season, I have a tough time thinking they won't get a #1

Over who? If Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona win out or at minimum 1 loss lets say in the conference tournament, the top 3 teams are set at 1. And you can't put Kansas over Kentucky who just blew out Kansas at Kansas.

Only hope for them is if Arizona and/or Kentucky losses several more times and they can win it over Purdue.

If Kansas wins the Big 12, they're getting a #1, regardless of what Kentucky does.

Guess we'll see how the NCAA selection committee sees it Saturday but Kentucky is ahead of them in all their metrics considerations

[Beachcat97]

If Kansas wins the Big 12 without too much bloodshed to end the season, I have a tough time thinking they won't get a #1

Over who? If Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona win out or at minimum 1 loss lets say in the conference tournament, the top 3 teams are set at 1. And you can't put Kansas over Kentucky who just blew out Kansas at Kansas.

Only hope for them is if Arizona and/or Kentucky losses several more times and they can win it over Purdue.

If Kansas wins the Big 12, they're getting a #1, regardless of what Kentucky does.

Guess we'll see how the NCAA selection committee sees it Saturday but Kentucky is ahead of them in all their metrics considerations

Totally, but look at Kansas' remaining schedule. If they win the Big 12, they'll have added wins @Baylor and vs. Texas. That would bring their Q1 record to a whopping 10-3, which would be the best in the country.

I mean, Houston is ahead of Kansas in NET. Think they're getting a #1 seed. Not a chance.

[Alieberman]

If Kansas finishes strong loser of SEC moves down

[RondaeShimmy]

If Kansas wins the Big 12 without too much bloodshed to end the season, I have a tough time thinking they won't get a #1

Over who? If Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona win out or at minimum 1 loss lets say in the conference tournament, the top 3 teams are set at 1. And you can't put Kansas over Kentucky who just blew out Kansas at Kansas.

Only hope for them is if Arizona and/or Kentucky losses several more times and they can win it over Purdue.

If Kansas wins the Big 12, they're getting a #1, regardless of what Kentucky does.

Guess we'll see how the NCAA selection committee sees it Saturday but Kentucky is ahead of them in all their metrics considerations

Totally, but look at Kansas' remaining schedule. If they win the Big 12, they'll have added wins @Baylor and vs. Texas. That would bring their Q1 record to a whopping 10-3, which would be the best in the country.

I mean, Houston is ahead of Kansas in NET. Think they're getting a #1 seed. Not a chance.

If it happens I think for sure it's Arizona that loses out because the sec is far stronger and they'll get the #1 over Arizona

[Beachcat97]

Over who? If Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona win out or at minimum 1 loss lets say in the conference tournament, the top 3 teams are set at 1. And you can't put Kansas over Kentucky who just blew out Kansas at Kansas.

Only hope for them is if Arizona and/or Kentucky losses several more times and they can win it over Purdue.

If Kansas wins the Big 12, they're getting a #1, regardless of what Kentucky does.

Guess we'll see how the NCAA selection committee sees it Saturday but Kentucky is ahead of them in all their metrics considerations

Totally, but look at Kansas' remaining schedule. If they win the Big 12, they'll have added wins @Baylor and vs. Texas. That would bring their Q1 record to a whopping 10-3, which would be the best in the country.

I mean, Houston is ahead of Kansas in NET. Think they're getting a #1 seed. Not a chance.

If it happens I think for sure it's Arizona that loses out because the sec is far stronger and they'll get the #1 over Arizona

Not if we beat USC and UCLA again.

[Alieberman]

OK- we all agree that the Zags are a lock.

And teams 2-6 are all very close.

On Saturday we will find out the exact order of them. But here are 2-7 and their remaining games vs. top 25:

Auburn - @Tennessee
Arizona- @USC
Kansas- @Baylor, Texas
Kentucky- Alabama, Arkansas
Purdue- Rutgers (not ranked but had to include them) @ Mich St, @ Wisconsin
Duke - none

Based on schedule -
Auburn is a lock with a win vs Ten
Arizona- Probably needs to win every game not including USC
Kansas # 1 may rest on game vs. Baylor
Kentucky will certainly be in discussion if they finish strong
Purdue- tough schedule... don't see them winning out to move up
Duke- Can win out, but needs a lot of chaos in front of them to move up

[EastCoastCat]

You guys are only taking into account the regular season.

The conference Tourney's will also factor in especially if 5 teams are all vying for 2-3 spots.

[97cats]

27-4 or better = #1 seed 99% guaranteed

thats it - thats all there is to it for Arizona. period.

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
27- 4 = 99% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

[Olsondogg]

27-4 or better = #1 seed 99% guaranteed

thats it - thats all there is to it for Arizona. period.

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
27- 4 = 99% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

I notice you are discounting the fact that tinkle has been sandbagging the entire year just for tonight’s game and a run in the pac tourney. That way he can steal another extension.