Road to the Final Four

SportsMind · Post by **SportsMind** » Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:12 am

How do we get into the coveted College Football Playoff? Is it possible? Am I getting ahead of myself? The following will answer all of these questions while also providing Arizona fans with a guide on who to root for in the next 2 weeks.

Disclaimer: I am bored

In order for us to even have a chance to make the College Football Playoff, 3 things MUST happen.

1. We beat ASU on 11/28 @ 1:30pm MST (FOX)
2. UCLA loses at home to Stanford on 11/28 @ 1:30pm MST (ABC)
3. Arizona beats Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship on 12/5 @ 7pm MST (FOX)

That was simple, and plausible. Now we move on to the other conferences and the remaining teams ahead of us (ranked 11th).

10. Michigan St: Already with 2 losses, will not be playing in the Big Ten Championship. We automatically move ahead
9. Georgia: 2 losses with the following games:

vs Georgia Tech on 11/29 @ 10am MST (SEC Network)

If they win, they need Missouri to lose in order to make the SEC Championship Game. If they lose, we pass them.

If win (and Missouri loss):

vs Alabama/Miss St on 12/6 @ TBD (CBS)

If they win, they will be ranked ahead of us. If they lose, we pass them.

8. UCLA: Already discussed. They lose vs Stanford, we pass them.
7. Baylor: Two games left. We need them to lose one.

vs Texas Tech on 11/29 @ 1:30pm MST (ABC)
vs Kansas St on 12/6 @ TBD (TBD)

6. Ohio St: Two games left. We need them to lose one.

vs Michigan on 11/29 @ 10am MST (ABC)
vs Wisconsin/Minnesota on 12/6 @ TBD (FOX)

5. TCU: Two games left. We need them to lose one.

@ Texas on 11/27 @ 5:30pm MST (FS1)
vs Iowa St on 12/6 @ TBD (TBD)

4. Miss St: One or two games left. This can get complicated but the first game is a must win if they want to move on. If they lose, they will be passed by us and will not have a second game. If they win the first game, they need Alabama to lose in order to have another game. ALSO, if they win the first game, and Alabama also wins, they could still be placed ahead of us thanks to only 1 loss.

@ Ole Miss on 11/29 @ 1:30pm MST (CBS)
(POSSIBLE GAME) vs Georgia/Missouri on 12/6 at TBD (CBS)

3. Florida St: Two games left. Need 2 losses to pass them for sure. If they only lose once, they will likely be ahead of us.

vs Florida on 11/29 @ 1:30pm MST (ESPN)
vs Georgia Tech on 12/6 @ TBD (TBD)

2. Oregon: Two games left. We beat them and we pass them. The Oregon St doesn't matter for our chances so no need to watch that game.

1. Alabama: One or two games left. If they lose the first game, and Miss St wins their first game, they will have 2 losses and will be passed by us. If they lose and Miss St loses OR if they win their first game, they will automatically have a second game. A second game for Alabama means they will likely be ahead of us no matter what.

vs Auburn on 11/29 @ 5:45pm MST (CBS)
(POSSIBLE GAME) vs Georgia/Missouri on 12/6 at TBD (CBS)

TV Schedule: Bolded team is the team to root for

11/27 5:30pm: TCU vs Texas (FS1)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
11/28 1:30pm: Arizona vs Arizona St (FOX) | UCLA vs Stanford (ABC)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
11/29 10:00am: Georgia vs Georgia Tech (SEC) | Ohio St vs Michigan (ABC)
11/29 1:30pm: Baylor vs Texas Tech (ABC) | Miss St @ Ole Miss (CBS) | Florida St vs Florida (ESPN)
11/29 5:45pm: Alabama vs Auburn (CBS)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
12/5 7:00pm: Arizona vs Oregon (FOX)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
12/6 TBD: Georgia/Missouri vs Alabama/Miss St (CBS)
12/6 TBD: Baylor vs Kansas St (TBD)
12/6 TBD: Ohio St vs Wisconsin/Minnesota (FOX)
12/6 TBD: Florida St vs Georgia Tech (TBD)
12/6 TBD TCU vs Iowa St (TBD)

If the bolded teams win, the rankings will be as follows...

4. INSERT TEAM
3. INSERT TEAM
2. Arizona
1. Alabama/Miss St

The two teams to insert in considering the schedules would be TCU and Florida St, as they have the easiest schedules.

Edit: The teams we should be rooting against the hardest (besides UCLA/our opposition) have to be TCU/Baylor/Ohio St. The SEC Champion and Florida St are the two schools that we can afford to have win. We NEED for 2 of (TCU/Baylor/Ohio St) to lose one game.

SportsMind · Post by **SportsMind** » Fri Nov 28, 2014 5:15 pm

Very relevant now.

prh · Post by **prh** » Fri Nov 28, 2014 5:18 pm

While incredibly unlikely, I think an Oregon loss to OSU would hurt our chances. May as well have them be #2 when we play.

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Fri Nov 28, 2014 5:20 pm

prh wrote:While incredibly unlikely, I think an Oregon loss to OSU would hurt our chances. May as well have them be #2 when we play.

Agreed, I think Oregon needs to beat OrSU and then we beat Oregon to even have a chance.

wyo-cat · Post by **wyo-cat** » Fri Nov 28, 2014 5:30 pm

the team that Oregon didn't wantnto play again just dropped a bomb.

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Fri Nov 28, 2014 5:38 pm

Yeah, but Mike Riley has a way of screwing with Arizona. Go Ducks (this week only)!

SportsMind · Post by **SportsMind** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 1:02 am

Michigan St, Georgia and UCLA have all been eliminated from contention.

TCU is 1 win closer to finishing ahead of us.

Tomorrow is huge for us. We really need an upset. Oregon winning/losing matters very little compared to the other teams ahead of us. We can not afford to have both Alabama and Miss St win tomorrow. If both win, Miss St will finish the year with 1 loss and most certainly be ranked ahead of us.

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:35 am

Need to move to a format where each power 5 champ gets in plus a few wildcards. I hate the idea of a non conference champ getting in over a conference champion. Can't be justified: if you can't win your own conference you don't deserve to be in over someone who did.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:46 am

Puerco wrote:Need to move to a format where each power 5 champ gets in plus a few wildcards. I hate the idea of a non conference champ getting in over a conference champion. Can't be justified: if you can't win your own conference you don't deserve to be in over someone who did.

8 team playoff could work that way. But I doubt everyone would be happy with Georgia Tech, Arizona, Minnesota, TCU, and Missouri getting the auto bids and the other three slots having to pick from Alabama, Mississippi State, Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan State, Florida State, and Baylor. Especially if a Big10 or Pac12 team is left out of the at-large bids and the SEC gets 3 teams in.

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 8:50 am

Chicat wrote:
Puerco wrote:Need to move to a format where each power 5 champ gets in plus a few wildcards. I hate the idea of a non conference champ getting in over a conference champion. Can't be justified: if you can't win your own conference you don't deserve to be in over someone who did.
8 team playoff could work that way. But I doubt everyone would be happy with Georgia Tech, Arizona, Minnesota, TCU, and Missouri getting the auto bids and the other three slots having to pick from Alabama, Mississippi State, Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan State, Florida State, and Baylor. Especially if a Big10 or Pac12 team is left out of the at-large bids and the SEC gets 3 teams in.

easy way to avoid that is say any conference can only get 2 teams in.

There'd still always be 2 sec teams, cause, you know, sec...but at least it wouldn't be 3 or 4.

As for the Cats' chances...there's still a chance...but will the Football Gods help us out and send some losses to certain teams? I doubt it.

Hell, I'll just say it, zero chance we make the playoff.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:00 am

I don't think its purely about the record POM. I really think the committee is going to get this right, if the CATS beat oregon.

no homer.

SportsMind · Post by **SportsMind** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:02 pm

Updated Schedule: Bolded teams are who we should root for

12/5 7:00pm: Arizona vs Oregon (FOX)
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
12/6 10:00am: TCU vs Iowa St (ABC) Fat chance
12/6 2:00pm: Missouri vs Alabama (CBS) unlikely this matters
12/6 5:45pm: Baylor vs Kansas St (ESPN) HUGE
12/6 6:00pm: Florida St vs Georgia Tech (ABC) unlikely this matters
12/6 6:15pm: Ohio St vs Wisconsin (FOX) HUGE

We need for 2 of the following 3 teams to lose (TCU,Baylor,Ohio St)

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:18 pm

Let's hope the committee is thinking like Gimino:

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:20 pm

SportsMind wrote:
We need for 2 of the following 3 teams to lose (TCU,Baylor,Ohio St)

I think TOSU is a given. Can't see them beating Wisconsin on a neutral field with their 3rd string QB.

K-State will give Baylor a game-wonder if Petty will play?

TCU has been playing with fire all year - will they finally get burned? (doubt it.)

SportsMind · Post by **SportsMind** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:32 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:
SportsMind wrote:
We need for 2 of the following 3 teams to lose (TCU,Baylor,Ohio St)
I think TOSU is a given. Can't see them beating Wisconsin on a neutral field with their 3rd string QB.

K-State will give Baylor a game-wonder if Petty will play?

TCU has been playing with fire all year - will they finally get burned? (doubt it.)

Petty says he is 100% playing and I believe they will at least try him out. If both TCU and Baylor win, it just seems crazy to put both of them ahead of Arizona despite having 1 less loss. Almost like a reward for not having a conference championship. Considering the committee is represented by all regions, it would also be surprising to leave out the conference champion from the Pac-12.

Still at this point, I don't want to do much speculating. If we win, and 2 of those 3 teams loses, we are GUARANTEED a spot. Let us hope for that.

Harvey Specter · Post by **Harvey Specter** » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:48 pm

Baylor and TCU are not going to both make the playoff - no friggin way. it would be nice to see K-State win for added security, but I do not think it's an absolute necessity.

We need 2 things to happen to make the playoff: Beat Oregon and have Wisconsin beat tOSU. An Alabama or FSU loss might make things interesting... But UA and Wiscy win and we are 75% in... A K-State victory and it's 100%.

Focus on what we can control... TCB on Friday.

azpatnca · Post by **azpatnca** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:58 pm

Remember when we beat Miami in the Fiesta Bowl and then scheduled Penn State and that was so bad we eventually lost that coach whose career here never fully recovered, and then we hired some coaches and only Friday did we finally recover from that Penn State game?

let me stop before I venture into the "playing scared" side of thinking. That sort of thinking hot us the UCLA game and last years ASU game, so forget that.

But instead let me ask this, what would it take to get to the Rose Bowl?

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:02 pm

azpatnca wrote:Remember when we beat Miami in the Fiesta Bowl and then scheduled Penn State and that was so bad we eventually lost that coach whose career here never fully recovered, and then we hired some coaches and only Friday did we finally recover from that Penn State game?

let me stop before I venture into the "playing scared" side of thinking. That sort of thinking hot us the UCLA game and last years ASU game, so forget that.

But instead let me ask this, what would it take to get to the Rose Bowl?

You deserve rep and I agree with your assessment. This is the first time since the Penn State game that the monkey is off our back. Everything that happens for the rest of the season is gravy. Although I do want more.

wyo-cat · Post by **wyo-cat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:03 pm

Beating Oregon this Friday makes us conference champs which gets the Rose Bowl monkey off our back because we'll be playing for a National Championship, which may be the location of the first game anyway.

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:05 pm

wyo-cat wrote:Beating Oregon this Friday makes us conference champs which gets the Rose Bowl monkey off our back because we'll be playing for a National Championship, which may be the location of the first game anyway.

Even if we beat Oregon games are going to have to fall the right way for the Cats to make the playoffs. But first beating Oregon is a really tall order, and that would be a major upset if we beat them again.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:13 pm

If Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, Baylor, and TCU all win next weekend it won't matter what we do.

Catstatic · Post by **Catstatic** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:21 pm

Harvey Specter wrote:Baylor and TCU are not going to both make the playoff - no friggin way. it would be nice to see K-State win for added security, but I do not think it's an absolute necessity.

We need 2 things to happen to make the playoff: Beat Oregon and have Wisconsin beat tOSU. An Alabama or FSU loss might make things interesting... But UA and Wiscy win and we are 75% in... A K-State victory and it's 100%.

Focus on what we can control... TCB on Friday.

Completely agree, HS! I believe Wisconsin will be favored, perhaps by more than the line will suggest. We beat Oregon, OSU loses, we jump over them and MSU. That puts us at #5. No way in the world do two teams from the Big 12 get in and leave the Pac 12 champion out, which will have given Oregon it's only two losses all year. It will be either Baylor or TCU ... not both.

I think if Arizona and Wisconsin win, we are in, 100%. Biggest question mark? Beating Oregon. That will be a huge task. However, I think we actually control our own destiny on this one., with some help from Wisconsin.

Go Cats!!

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:22 pm

azgreg wrote:If Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, Baylor, and TCU all win next weekend it won't matter what we do.

How are playoff teams chosen? Is it all computer generated or is there a human element? I don't believe both TCU and Baylor should be in the playoff. OSU, without their starting QB could really be in trouble. We would pass Michigan State if we beat Oregon again. There is a small chance to get the 4th invite, but it will be a miracle.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:25 pm

azgreg wrote:If Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, Baylor, and TCU all win next weekend it won't matter what we do.

Disagree, think we need two out of three of OSU, Baylor, TCU.

I don't think TCU AND Baylor get in. If OSU loses, I think it's Baylor if they beat Kansas St., TCU if not. (since Baylor won head to head).
Plus Bama, FSU, and the Oregon/Arizona winner.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:28 pm

Catintheheat wrote:
azgreg wrote:If Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, Baylor, and TCU all win next weekend it won't matter what we do.
How are playoff teams chosen? Is it all computer generated or is there a human element? I don't believe both TCU and Baylor should be in the playoff. OSU, without their starting QB could really be in trouble. We would pass Michigan State if we beat Oregon again. There is a small chance to get the 4th invite, but it will be a miracle.

Completely human. There's a selection committee like for the ncaa tournament

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:30 pm

Not sure I agree Greg. I dont see how the committee leaves out y g e v hampion of the 1B rated conference where they have already repeatedly given respect to in each poll.

I also don't see how they put Ohio St in unless this QB comes in and that QB is very impressive.

I think Bama, FSU (assuming they win), the PAC champion and either TCU or Baylor is in

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:34 pm

What I'm saying is that if Baylor and TCU both win we are not jumping them.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:36 pm

azgreg wrote:What I'm saying is that if Baylor and TCU both win we are not jumping them.

Disagree if we beat Oregon. They are not giving the Big 12 two spots.

whatisee · Post by **whatisee** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:36 pm

azgreg wrote:If Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, Baylor, and TCU all win next weekend it won't matter what we do.

Ohio St and Baylor both have great shots at losing next week. Arizona just needs to win

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:37 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:
azgreg wrote:What I'm saying is that if Baylor and TCU both win we are not jumping them.
Disagree if we beat Oregon. They are not giving the Big 12 two spots.

The spot should go to the Big 12 champs and the other should be left out. The Big 12 isn't good enough to allow 2 teams in.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:37 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:
azgreg wrote:What I'm saying is that if Baylor and TCU both win we are not jumping them.
Disagree if we beat Oregon. They are not giving the Big 12 two spots.

I never said they are getting 2 spots, I said we won't jump them in the standings.

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:38 pm

Catintheheat wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
azgreg wrote:What I'm saying is that if Baylor and TCU both win we are not jumping them.
Disagree if we beat Oregon. They are not giving the Big 12 two spots.
Agree.The spot should go to the Big 12 champs and the other should be left out. The Big 12 isn't good enough to allow 2 teams in.

prh · Post by **prh** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:42 pm

azgreg wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
azgreg wrote:What I'm saying is that if Baylor and TCU both win we are not jumping them.
Disagree if we beat Oregon. They are not giving the Big 12 two spots.
I never said they are getting 2 spots, I said we won't jump them in the standings.

What do you expect it to look like if they both win, along with us and Wisconsin? Just trying to understand what you're getting at.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:42 pm

azgreg wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
azgreg wrote:What I'm saying is that if Baylor and TCU both win we are not jumping them.
Disagree if we beat Oregon. They are not giving the Big 12 two spots.
I never said they are getting 2 spots, I said we won't jump them in the standings.

Well who is getting the 4th spot then?

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:45 pm

prh wrote:
azgreg wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
azgreg wrote:What I'm saying is that if Baylor and TCU both win we are not jumping them.
Disagree if we beat Oregon. They are not giving the Big 12 two spots.
I never said they are getting 2 spots, I said we won't jump them in the standings.
What do you expect it to look like if they both win, along with us and Wisconsin? Just trying to understand what you're getting at.

My original post said if Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, Baylor, and TCU win.

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:46 pm

I can't delete posts that have been replied to, oh well.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:48 pm

Catintheheat wrote:I can't delete posts that have been replied to, oh well.

When that happens to me I just edit it to read nm (never mind).

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:49 pm

Catintheheat wrote:I can't delete posts that have been replied to, oh well.

what post do you want deleted?

prh · Post by **prh** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:51 pm

azgreg wrote:
prh wrote:
azgreg wrote: I never said they are getting 2 spots, I said we won't jump them in the standings.
What do you expect it to look like if they both win, along with us and Wisconsin? Just trying to understand what you're getting at.
My original post said if Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, Baylor, and TCU win.

Got it. Is that the order you expect them to be ranked?

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:55 pm

prh wrote:
azgreg wrote:
prh wrote:
azgreg wrote: I never said they are getting 2 spots, I said we won't jump them in the standings.
What do you expect it to look like if they both win, along with us and Wisconsin? Just trying to understand what you're getting at.
My original post said if Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, Baylor, and TCU win.
Got it. Is that the order you expect them to be ranked?

If we make the assumption that we beat Oregon and the 5 teams win that I mentioned all win I think it will be Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, and TCU. I wrote Ohio St off in the beginning when they lost their starting QB and they proved me wrong.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:57 pm

azgreg wrote:
prh wrote:
azgreg wrote:
prh wrote:
azgreg wrote: I never said they are getting 2 spots, I said we won't jump them in the standings.
What do you expect it to look like if they both win, along with us and Wisconsin? Just trying to understand what you're getting at.
My original post said if Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, Baylor, and TCU win.
Got it. Is that the order you expect them to be ranked?
If we make the assumption that we beat Oregon and the 5 teams win that I mentioned all win I think it will be Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, and TCU. I wrote Ohio St off in the beginning when they lost their starting QB and they proved me wrong.

Why would TCU stay ahead of Baylor? Baylor won head to head when TCU blew a huge lead in the 4th quarter. Don't see it.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 1:59 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:Why would TCU stay ahead of Baylor? Baylor won head to head when TCU blew a huge lead in the 4th quarter. Don't see it.

The committee has shown that even though the head to head is big, it's not the be all end all on putting 1 team ahead of the other. TCU has a better body of work. Now if they struggle with the Cyclones and Baylor handles K St I would switch them.

eoe · Post by **eoe** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:01 pm

First, Arizona must beat Oregon and Ohio State must lose to Wisconsin.

Ok, now tell me which team is more deserving of a playoff spot: (assuming all teams win out)

Team 1-
11-1
2 wins vs current top 25 (home vs #8 and home vs #18)
Loss to current #5

Team 2-
11-2
4 wins vs. current top 25 (away vs. #3, neutral vs. #3, home vs. #17, away vs. #24)
Losses to current #16 and #26

Team 3-
11-1
3 wins vs. current top 25 (home vs. #4, home vs. #9, away vs. #18)
Loss to unranked

Very close.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:03 pm

You have to keep in mind that the committee is also using this game control factor as well.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:04 pm

Whichever one of the Big 5 conferences gets left out is going to be so pissed - will probably accelerate the move to the 8 team playoff quicker.

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:24 pm

PieceOfMeat wrote:
Catintheheat wrote:I can't delete posts that have been replied to, oh well.
what post do you want deleted?

The ones that say "nm". they are duplicates from trying to editing caused by a brain fart.

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:25 pm

Catintheheat wrote:
PieceOfMeat wrote:
Catintheheat wrote:I can't delete posts that have been replied to, oh well.
what post do you want deleted?
The ones that say "nm". they are duplicates from trying to editing caused by a brain fart.

done

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 3:06 pm

UAEebs86 wrote:Whichever one of the Big 5 conferences gets left out is going to be so pissed - will probably accelerate the move to the 8 team playoff quicker.

If it's the B1G or the BigXII their argument is suspect. If the PAC or SEC goes without a representative, I would imagine an 8 team playoff deal for '15 would happen before the first bowl game.

azcat34 · Post by **azcat34** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 6:06 pm

I highly doubt committee will even consider feeding Ohio State's backup QB to Alabama unless they blow the doors off of Wisconsin and even then I think it's iffy.

If Arizona beats Oregon the committee pretty much has free reign to move Arizona as they please. Two wins against Oregon is very tough to argue if you are TCU or Baylor, who will have had one less conference game than Arizona and worse wins.

People need to stop being slaves to W-L record, it is not the end all and the committee has proven this by moving 1-loss Alabama and Oregon ahead of 0-loss Florida State. There is certainly a real possibility that Arizona moves past either TCU or Baylor and perhaps even both. We will need to see if the committee penalizes Baylor for their horrible performance against Texas Tech. Arizona was penalized a spot or two for the 1 point win against Washington, there is precedent there as well.

The teams in front of Arizona Tuesday will be:

1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. TCU
5. Ohio State I think passes Baylor for the TTech performance
6. LIKELY Baylor, I could see Arizona being here. Small chance though.
7. UNLIKELY Michigan State. I am dumbfounded by the love for Michigan State, and they shouldn't be here. But they could be.

The way I see it, ASSUMING Arizona wins:

Off the bat, Michigan State is a non-factor. If Arizona wins there is zero chance in hell they aren't in the playoff over an idle Michigan State. Start the riots if they are.

The way I see it, Arizona is a lock for Final Four if Florida State or Ohio State lose outright. Both of those teams are out of the conversation along with Oregon (assuming the AZ win) I believe and there is two spots for TCU/Baylor and Arizona. I would be shocked if the committee is taking TCU AND Baylor over Arizona when they would have more quality wins than BOTH of them combined.

If both win, I still could see TCU getting penalized for having a bad team coming to town this weekend and the insane hype Arizona would have if they beat Oregon again. Even if TCU wins 55-3 against 2-9 Iowa State, it is tough to campaign on that. I also don't see TCU having much juice in the political realm. ZONACAT could prob expound more here.

Alabama is a non-factor for Arizona, even in a loss. They still are likely the 3-4 seed with a loss, in over Arizona in probably every possible scenario sadly.

Kind of rambled thoughts, hope it makes some sense.

ZONACAT · Post by **ZONACAT** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 6:19 pm

OOC kills Arizona in this conversation. Don't see it.

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