Conference Realignment

[AZCatGirl]

As much as I've (and everyone else here) shit on the UofA leadership, I love that we're among the group making the next move. Hope we can lock down moving to the Big 12 this week.

I'm mostly curious what happens to Stanford purely because of women's basketball. Haven't heard any rumors on what they might do, and I'm just hoping Tara VanDerveer doesn't get screwed over by the destruction of the Pac. We all know Washington and Oregon will land somewhere, and I don't really care about anyone else that's left. But the Stanford women are so good I just hope they don't get lost in big money shuffle.

[dmjcat]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/07/03/ ... xtinction/

Pac-12 survival guide: Five forces that will define the path to salvation, or extinction
The most important piece is leadership at the president level

By JON WILNER | jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group
PUBLISHED: July 3, 2022 at 9:02 a.m. | UPDATED: July 3, 2022 at 2:35 p.m.

In coming days, weeks and months, the Pac-12 will plot a course to salvation … or go the way of the dodo.

A range of outcomes exists following the loss of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten, from merging with a peer conference or expanding its ranks to sticking with 10 schools or vanishing from the landscape altogether.

In an upcoming Hotline series, we’ll plunge into the specific scenarios.

This introductory installment examines five broad issues that will shape our discussions and the future of the conference.

1. Pac-12 presidents: The heat is on

Survival starts at the top, which should be cause for concern across the footprint.

The conference has been pushed to the brink because the presidents and chancellors didn’t prioritize football, signed off on bad media strategies and waited too long to change commissioners.

Now, they must settle on an identity for the reconfigured conference and determine which universities clear the barrier for entry.

Will the membership standards in place for decades continue to exist with regard to academic reputation, political leanings and religious affiliation?

If so, the path forward narrows considerably.

Of all the presidents, we wonder most about Washington’s Ana Mari Cauce, who took over as chair of the Pac-12 board on Friday.

If the Huskies eventually negotiate behind-the-scenes for invitations to the Big Ten or Big 12, that’s a massive conflict of interest.

2. Anxious days, worrisome nights

The next two weeks are vital. “We need things to slow down,” one Pac-12 source said, in order for a level of trust and sanity to return.

At the moment, conference and campus leaders gather on Zoom calls and wonder who’s truly committed and whose face they might be seeing for the last time.

The Big Ten appears finished with expansion, for now, so our focus turns to the Big 12 and its level of aggression.

A year ago, the situation was reversed. Texas and Oklahoma had announced plans to move to the SEC, and the Big 12 was fighting for survival.

The Pac-12 declined to merge but, by not poaching the most desirable schools, allowed the Big 12 to survive.

Will the emboldened Big 12 turn around and attempt a kill shot, or return the favor and stand down?

3. Media partner motivation

For 10 years, Fox and ESPN have been equal owners of the Pac-12’s media rights.

That shared interest probably won’t continue once the current contract expires in the spring of 2024.

Fox orchestrated what could be the knockout blow and is the puppet-master behind the Big Ten’s raid of the Los Angeles schools.

The move suggests that Fox will have little interest in Pac-12 media rights in the next contract cycle. Most, if not all of its cash will be spent on the Big Ten and the expanded College Football Playoff.

Meanwhile, ESPN could play a key role in rescuing the Pac-12.

When the next contract cycle begins, ESPN will control all ACC and SEC football content but perhaps very little — or none — of the Big Ten’s inventory.

That’s significant, because ESPN has more shelf space than Fox due to additional linear networks (ESPN2) and its commitment to a digital platform (ESPN+).

It needs viable college football in the Central, Mountain and Pacific time zones in order to fill all those broadcast windows.

Given the desperation level of the Pac-12 and Big 12, whose current media deal expires in 2025, their inventory will undoubtedly be available for whatever price ESPN is willing to pay.

ESPN can name the terms and, if desired, dictate which schools are in which league.

4. The tent pole schools

Of the 80-something major college football programs not bound to the SEC, Big Ten or ACC — and are not Notre Dame — the Pac-12 owns the two most valuable in the media marketplace: Washington and Oregon.

If we assume the door to the Big Ten is closed and the Huskies and Ducks are committed to the Pac-12, if only for lack of ideal options, they provide real leverage.

Leverage the conference can use with ESPN or other interested media companies.

Leverage the conference can use with schools in the Big 12 or Mountain West that might be expansion targets.

Leverage the conference can use with current Pac-12 schools pondering a jump to the Big 12.

With the Huskies and Ducks, there is a foundation to move forward.

The Pac-12 must make optimum use of its purple and green carrots.


5. State school politics

UCLA’s separation from Cal — the campuses share the same university system and board of regents — is one of our lingering curiosities about the L.A. departures.

And the future of the Pac-12 could hinge on the degree to which remaining state schools are bound to move in lockstep.

Could Arizona State bolt for the Big 12 and leave Arizona behind?

Could Washington head to the Big Ten (eventually) and kiss WSU goodbye?

Could Oregon do whatever Phil Knight wants without regard for Oregon State?

Political forces vary by the state, and we won’t begin to guess how each situation could play out.

But it’s a key piece to the Pac-12’s future shape … or disappearance.

[OSUCat]

Acc teams are in a tough place. I’ve seen estimates that it will cost any team leaving around 500 million. Basically, ACC owns that schools tv rights until 2036.

[CalStateTempe]

I want arizona to big12

Would be amazing for cats BB

Baylor
Houston
Kansas

Eyeballs.

[RondaeShimmy]

Yeah looking like Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah could be going to the big 12 this week.

I'm kinda glad our leadership isn't just standing around waiting for things to happen and be left with nothing.

Arizona is securing it's future in a strong enough conference (that geographically makes sense) and this will also essentially kill the PAC 12.

[AzCatFan2]

While Oregon and Washington are attractive to the BIG 12, I don't think the BIG 12 is attractive to Oregon and Washington. I think Oregon and UW might bide their time as the lead programs in a revised PAC until something breaks.

Of course, if UW is tied to WSU, and Oregon OSU, that changes things. Certainly, the BIG 10 aren't taking the Cougs and/or the Beavers. And having to take WSU and OSU makes UW and OU less attractive to the existing BIG 12.

I still say we have value, because we can diversify a portfolio. The top 35 football schools have the most value by far. These are the Game of the Week headliner schools. The next 35 or so? Only time they are on a football game of the week is if they play one of the top schools. Otherwise, they are the late game on the conference network. Us Arizona fans know this all too well.

But come January, when football season is over, different story with Arizona. We are a headline program in the spring. It's why a school like Kentucky is valuable to the SEC. Kentucky football has been poor to middling for years. But Kentucky basketball keeps the SEC in the headlines when the calendar turns to hoops. And that adds value to the conference.

Schools like Colorado, Utah, and ASu aren't football headliners. Utah is the closest, but still has a long way to go to get there. But unlike Arizona, none of these schools move the needle in basketball. Arizona does, and now with both the men and women. Again, what has more value to a TV network? An extra 100,000 eyeballs spread over football season when viewership is at its highest? Or 100,000 extra eyeballs during Jan through Jun?

[U.P. Zona Fan]

I do see a positive. Unless UA joins the B1G too Bruins will be less likely to post here.

Wow. As if I needed another reason to want to join the Big 12.

Bug is still gonna post here, he's an addict like the rest of us.

[CalStateTempe]

I want the big 12 so bad after looking at all the BB matchups.

Would toughen up AZ for sure.

[Merkin]

A meeting is scheduled between members of the Pac-12 and Big 12 on Tuesday. Read on for the latest.

Rest behind paywall https://247sports.com/college/arizona/A ... 189577445/

I want the big 12 so bad after looking at all the BB matchups.

Would toughen up AZ for sure.

And UA FB would no longer be the doormat with Kansas football.

[RichardCranium]

And nobody is considering what Stanford and Berkeley might do?

Stanford to the Ivy League maybe?
Berkeley to the WCC?

[PHXCATS]

This is what is most important here, $$$$

Based on the estimates I have seen to get to the big Ten you need to worth at least 65M a year.

For AZ the estimate is they would get about 30M in the current PAC-12. Now that will obviously go down if Oregon and Washington leave but gotta shoot for trying to get at least 35ish Million per year out of the Big 12 or ACC to join

[Merkin]

Berkeley to the WCC?

Cal has the worst stadium deal known to the history of the world in one of the worst metro areas for college football attendance. The Cal president was leading the charge in getting rid of Scott years before the other PAC presidents would allow it, just to get a bigger slice of TV revenue. They can't even afford to stay if the PAC stays at 10 schools and revenue gets reduced to $30M per school.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/168 ... e%20report.

Stadium debt already absorbs 20 percent of intercollegiate athletics' annual income, or roughly $18 million of its $89 million budget. And that pays only the interest.

Cal won't start paying down the principal until 2032, when its yearly payments rise to $26 million, then $37 million, before tapering off in 2051. After a brief respite, Cal will owe a lump sum of $82 million in 2053 alone. Then it will have six decades to pay off the final 17 percent, or $75 million.

[CalStateTempe]

Cal never has been a hotbed for the economically smart

[CalStateTempe]

To GlobalCat’s point, if I’m cal I’m raising all sorts of hell with the UC regents

[PHXCATS]

By expert projections UCLA and USC leaving cost U of A 11 M per year

I see Chief is bitching about the TV deal for the Big 12. The issue is stability that he is not mentioning

If Washington and Oregon leave UA would be so fucked.

[dmjcat]

A meeting is scheduled between members of the Pac-12 and Big 12 on Tuesday. Read on for the latest.

Rest behind paywall https://247sports.com/college/arizona/A ... 189577445/

I want the big 12 so bad after looking at all the BB matchups.

Would toughen up AZ for sure.

And UA FB would no longer be the doormat with Kansas football.

According to this website its UA/asu/Utah/Col meeting with the Big12

https://thecomeback.com/ncaa/big-12-mee ... -utah.html

[ChooChooCat]

And nobody is considering what Stanford and Berkeley might do?

Stanford to the Ivy League maybe?
Berkeley to the WCC?

Word is if Notre Dame goes to the B1G they're going to drag Stanford with them.

[CalStateTempe]

As it stands, the Big Ten would be, personally speaking, the super conference with most of the teams that I dislike.

[CalStateTempe]

It’s like the blue blood football conference

Big 12 with Arizona would be one hell of a basketball conference

[PHXCATS]

And nobody is considering what Stanford and Berkeley might do?

Stanford to the Ivy League maybe?
Berkeley to the WCC?

Word is if Notre Dame goes to the B1G they're going to drag Stanford with them.

Heard the same. Makes a ton of sense and then they grab Oregon and Washington (if their state legislators allow) and you have a 5 school pod out west.

That happens SEC grabs UNC Florida State and Clemson and one more.

Big 12 can then grab four of the remaining ACC schools (Miami NC State Louisville ans one more)

Cal Oregon State and Washington State to Mountain West or American

[azcat49]

Can any state BOR really block a move by a school? I am sure they can threaten to withdraw funding or other monetary penalties but can they effectively block a move? Oklahoma’s move to the SEC seems to suggest they can’t

[OSUCat]

Big12 will not get any ACC teams without ACC disbanding. It would cost the ACC teams too much. SEC could pull it off but it would be a painful 4 to 5 years financially for those schools.

If Stanford doesn’t get picked up by Big10, I would be all for Stanford and Cal getting into the Big12.

[OSUCat]

Can any state BOR really block a move by a school? I am sure they can threaten to withdraw funding or other monetary penalties but can they effectively block a move? Oklahoma’s move to the SEC seems to suggest they can’t

If Oklahoma and Texas legislatures couldn’t stop it, I really doubt California, Oregon, and Washington legislatures will care enough. Let alone BORs.

[PHXCATS]

Can any state BOR really block a move by a school? I am sure they can threaten to withdraw funding or other monetary penalties but can they effectively block a move? Oklahoma’s move to the SEC seems to suggest they can’t

Arizona could I think and Washington is trying to get a law on the books that UW and WSU must be in the same conference

[CalStateTempe]

https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootb ... jones.html

Love this.

Arizona gonna clean up in recruiting for BB and FB

“when all the athletes at USC and UCLA begin to realize what they’ve been lassoed into: 12-hour-minimum weekly excursions in planes to and from slate-colored, stratus-clouded upper Midwestern and Eastern outposts. I am hoping for an out-and-out rebellion, that recruiting craters at the Los Angeles schools because word of mouth spreads – you don’t wanna do this, man. It’s brutal.“

[CalStateTempe]

Come to arizona and play Kansas, or go to ucla and slog through twice monthly 5-4day trips to snow and cold flyover country.

[azcat49]

NFL teams, even the best struggle when they go coast to coast. Can’t be much different for college kids.

Of course if we hit the Big 12, there is that trip to West Virginia. That why I hope for a merger, a real super conference.

[PHXCATS]

NFL teams, even the best struggle when they go coast to coast. Can’t be much different for college kids.

Of course if we hit the Big 12, there is that trip to West Virginia. That why I hope for a merger, a real super conference.

What teams in the pac12 are worth about 30M per year?

[azcat49]

No clue? It appears the SEC and B1G will then create the elite teams where they distribute 125m to each school and control the upper levels of college sports.

Next would be whatever us left if the PAC/Big 12 and ACC who will get the filler money and distribute probably what we are getting now.

Somehow you have to create mass to overcome that quality so a big merger to me is the best way to combat being an also ran down the road

[CalStateTempe]

NFL teams, even the best struggle when they go coast to coast. Can’t be much different for college kids.

Of course if we hit the Big 12, there is that trip to West Virginia. That why I hope for a merger, a real super conference.

WVU would be our wazzu trip.

[CalStateTempe]

NFL teams, even the best struggle when they go coast to coast. Can’t be much different for college kids.

Of course if we hit the Big 12, there is that trip to West Virginia. That why I hope for a merger, a real super conference.

Could the current pac merge with the ACC?

It’s not that crazy. Keep the majority of games in your footprint, have a few cross continental games each season. East and west meet in the championship’s

[CalStateTempe]

No clue? It appears the SEC and B1G will then create the elite teams where they distribute 125m to each school and control the upper levels of college sports.

Next would be whatever us left if the PAC/Big 12 and ACC who will get the filler money and distribute probably what we are getting now.

Somehow you have to create mass to overcome that quality so a big merger to me is the best way to combat being an also ran down the road

Agree and the super conference charges 50/50 revenue sharing for all games scheduled with sec/big

[Merkin]

Can any state BOR really block a move by a school? I am sure they can threaten to withdraw funding or other monetary penalties but can they effectively block a move? Oklahoma’s move to the SEC seems to suggest they can’t

If Oklahoma and Texas legislatures couldn’t stop it, I really doubt California, Oregon, and Washington legislatures will care enough. Let alone BORs.

Already happened in Cali with UCLA leaving fellow UC program Cal in the lurch. USC and Stanford are obviously private and can do what they want.

[PHXCATS]

NFL teams, even the best struggle when they go coast to coast. Can’t be much different for college kids.

Of course if we hit the Big 12, there is that trip to West Virginia. That why I hope for a merger, a real super conference.

Could the current pac merge with the ACC?

It’s not that crazy. Keep the majority of games in your footprint, have a few cross continental games each season. East and west meet in the championship’s

How would that increase revenue payouts to the schools for the current ACC if Oregon and Washington are gone?

I also believe 20 schools is the most you can realistically have per conference

[azcat49]

The ACC is locked in right now to like 2036. If a team leaves it’s big money to exit. Scott could have locked in the LA schools like that but it was another fail on his part.

Just my opinion but I think you will see the B1G and the SEC pick off who they want to create mega dollars to those schools.

It’s imperative that the other schools band together to create mass value. I think the west schools have more value to fill late night spots for ESPIN and the F@CK station.

I keep hearing about the attractiveness of basketball match ups. These mergers have zero to do with anything related to basketball. It’s all football driven with TV markets.

I think the three remaining Power conferences better figure it out quick or they will eventually erode to monetary irrelevancy

[Merkin]

ACC paid $36M per school last FY. As mentioned earlier, the value of the PAC without USC/UCLA is around $30M per school. Without Oregon/UDub maybe $20M?

[azgreg]

How do we get around this?

https://pac-12compliance.org/wp-content ... ook.V1.pdf

3. Withdrawal.

No member shall deliver a notice of withdrawal to the Conference in the period beginning on July 24, 2011, and ending on August 1, 2024; provided, that if any member does deliver a notice of withdrawal prior to August 1, 2024, in violation of this chapter, the Conference shall be entitled to an injunction and other equitable relief to prevent such breach, and if a court of competent jurisdiction shall deny the Conference such injunctive relief, the Conference shall be entitled to retain all the media and sponsorship rights in the multi-player video distribution (MPVD) and telecommunications/wireless categories of the member purporting to withdraw through August 1, 2024, even if the member is then a member of another conference or an independent school for some or all intercollegiate sports competitions. Additionally, if a member delivers notice of withdrawal in violation of this chapter, the member’s representative to the CEO Group shall automatically cease to be a member of the CEO Group and shall cease to have the right to vote on any matter before the CEO Group. (6/10, 10/10, 7/11)

[OSUCat]

You deliver your notice saying you will withdraw August 2, 2024 . You loose your representative but nothing else. This is Why USC and UCLA start Big10 in 2024.

[azgreg]

You're saying we accept a deal to move to the Big-12 but don't officially notify the Apc-12 until after 8/1/24?

[ASUHATER!]

It’s like the blue blood football conference

Big 12 with Arizona would be one hell of a basketball conference

I hate the idea of not being a "west coast" program and culture anymore as I feel the UA and Tucson fits in much more with LA and UCLA and Cal and the Bay area and UW and Seattle that it goes with OSU and Stillwater and KSU and Manhattan. But it would be good for us basketball (and honestly baseball and softball wise too). A conference that has Kansas, Arizona, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Utah would be one that gets us further than the Pac 12 lately

[CalStateTempe]

ACC paid $36M per school last FY. As mentioned earlier, the value of the PAC without USC/UCLA is around $30M per school. Without Oregon/UDub maybe $20M?

There you go, Its current state including Oregon and Washington, ACC in pac12 band together And cover all is Time zones for football

[CalStateTempe]

How do we get around this?

https://pac-12compliance.org/wp-content ... ook.V1.pdf

3. Withdrawal.

No member shall deliver a notice of withdrawal to the Conference in the period beginning on July 24, 2011, and ending on August 1, 2024; provided, that if any member does deliver a notice of withdrawal prior to August 1, 2024, in violation of this chapter, the Conference shall be entitled to an injunction and other equitable relief to prevent such breach, and if a court of competent jurisdiction shall deny the Conference such injunctive relief, the Conference shall be entitled to retain all the media and sponsorship rights in the multi-player video distribution (MPVD) and telecommunications/wireless categories of the member purporting to withdraw through August 1, 2024, even if the member is then a member of another conference or an independent school for some or all intercollegiate sports competitions. Additionally, if a member delivers notice of withdrawal in violation of this chapter, the member’s representative to the CEO Group shall automatically cease to be a member of the CEO Group and shall cease to have the right to vote on any matter before the CEO Group. (6/10, 10/10, 7/11)

How did UCLA and USC around this?

[OSUCat]

You're saying we accept a deal to move to the Big-12 but don't officially notify the Apc-12 until after 8/1/24?

Not a lawyer, but as I understand it, notice of withdrawal is actually leaving the media rights agreement (through leaving the conference). If the agreement ends on 8/1/24 then a school leaving on 8/2/24 wouldn’t be in violation of that agreement. A school can notify the conference (probably a requirement) that the school plans signing with another conference media rights that starts 8/2/24. In essence leaving the conference without penalty.

Now if a school actually withdrew before the end of media rights, that school would have to pay the conference what the conference would have received in media rights. That’s why ACC schools are generally screwed because their agreements run to 2036 or so. I’ve seen estimates that Clemson would have to pay ACC $500 million to leave for the SEC.

[smashmode]

Can any state BOR really block a move by a school? I am sure they can threaten to withdraw funding or other monetary penalties but can they effectively block a move? Oklahoma’s move to the SEC seems to suggest they can’t

Arizona could I think and Washington is trying to get a law on the books that UW and WSU must be in the same conference

Just a note, but Washington legislature does not meet till mid Janurary, the governor can call a special session but it’s doubtful he will call one for this (and he’s a UW alum), or you need 2/3rd of state legislators to vote for a special session (also not likely).

In the end the state legislature won’t be an issue

[RondaeShimmy]

[CalStateTempe]

Which is why Arizona needs to get out now.

[OSUCat]

ACC paid $36M per school last FY. As mentioned earlier, the value of the PAC without USC/UCLA is around $30M per school. Without Oregon/UDub maybe $20M?

Wouldn’t each school have inherently higher value if they are not tied to the stupid PAC-12 channel? Arizona was on pac-12 network 7 times last year. I think Kansas was on ESPN+ 3 or 4 times and national tv the remaining. So wouldn’t Utah, Colorado, ASU, and Arizona have more value?

[Merkin]

How do we get around this?

https://pac-12compliance.org/wp-content ... ook.V1.pdf

3. Withdrawal.

No member shall deliver a notice of withdrawal to the Conference in the period beginning on July 24, 2011, and ending on August 1, 2024; provided, that if any member does deliver a notice of withdrawal prior to August 1, 2024, in violation of this chapter, the Conference shall be entitled to an injunction and other equitable relief to prevent such breach, and if a court of competent jurisdiction shall deny the Conference such injunctive relief, the Conference shall be entitled to retain all the media and sponsorship rights in the multi-player video distribution (MPVD) and telecommunications/wireless categories of the member purporting to withdraw through August 1, 2024, even if the member is then a member of another conference or an independent school for some or all intercollegiate sports competitions. Additionally, if a member delivers notice of withdrawal in violation of this chapter, the member’s representative to the CEO Group shall automatically cease to be a member of the CEO Group and shall cease to have the right to vote on any matter before the CEO Group. (6/10, 10/10, 7/11)

How did UCLA and USC around this?

I don't recall the exact reason, but it had to be done NLT 6/30/22 to be able to play in 2024. Which is precisely why the date this was picked so no other teams could leave. If they waited one more day until 7/1/22 they couldn't have played until 2025.

[RondaeShimmy]

[UAEebs86]

U Dub getting left out?