Official Bracketology Thread

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:32 pm

CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:32 pm
dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:17 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:15 pm
dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:19 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:57 am Think we need at least the Pac tourney final to be a 2. If we win the Pac tourney, we’ll be 2 in the west.
I think we crapped the bed last night with respect to being seeded in the west.

Even if we sweep in Vegas I think the committee will keep UCLA in the west over us.
Disagree. If we play and beat ucla in the Pac tournament, we’ll be 2 in the west, and they’ll be a lower 1 seed (ie: not in the west). The committee can reward ucla with a 1 but also recognize they didn’t close the deal in Vegas. Think ucla has to win the Pac tourney to guarantee a spot in the west.

Keep in mind that UCLA’s tourney resume isn’t as good as most of the other teams vying for a 1 seed.
If UCLA is a 1 and the UA is a 2 there is NO way the committee rewards a 2 seed over a 1 seed for regional preference.
Especially if there isn’t another team that is at least equally regionally relevant and worthy. They aren’t going to put Purdue in the West and UCLA in the South just to reward Arizona with the West 2 seed.

But what if we beat ucla to win the Pac tourney? Wouldn't the committee WANT to reward AZ?

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:34 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:32 pm
CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:32 pm
dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:17 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:15 pm
dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:19 pm

I think we crapped the bed last night with respect to being seeded in the west.

Even if we sweep in Vegas I think the committee will keep UCLA in the west over us.
Disagree. If we play and beat ucla in the Pac tournament, we’ll be 2 in the west, and they’ll be a lower 1 seed (ie: not in the west). The committee can reward ucla with a 1 but also recognize they didn’t close the deal in Vegas. Think ucla has to win the Pac tourney to guarantee a spot in the west.

Keep in mind that UCLA’s tourney resume isn’t as good as most of the other teams vying for a 1 seed.
If UCLA is a 1 and the UA is a 2 there is NO way the committee rewards a 2 seed over a 1 seed for regional preference.
Especially if there isn’t another team that is at least equally regionally relevant and worthy. They aren’t going to put Purdue in the West and UCLA in the South just to reward Arizona with the West 2 seed.
But what if we beat ucla to win the Pac tourney? Wouldn't the committee WANT to reward AZ?

By making two 1 seeds play outside their geographical region?

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:38 pm

CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:34 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:32 pm
CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:32 pm
dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:17 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:15 pm

Disagree. If we play and beat ucla in the Pac tournament, we’ll be 2 in the west, and they’ll be a lower 1 seed (ie: not in the west). The committee can reward ucla with a 1 but also recognize they didn’t close the deal in Vegas. Think ucla has to win the Pac tourney to guarantee a spot in the west.

Keep in mind that UCLA’s tourney resume isn’t as good as most of the other teams vying for a 1 seed.
If UCLA is a 1 and the UA is a 2 there is NO way the committee rewards a 2 seed over a 1 seed for regional preference.
Especially if there isn’t another team that is at least equally regionally relevant and worthy. They aren’t going to put Purdue in the West and UCLA in the South just to reward Arizona with the West 2 seed.
But what if we beat ucla to win the Pac tourney? Wouldn't the committee WANT to reward AZ?
By making two 1 seeds play outside their geographical region?

Maybe. You're assuming that all the 1 seeds will win their conference tourneys. If that doesn't happen, would the committee still put every 1 seed in their geographical region? You seem to be implying that ucla is already the #1 in the west, and I'm just not sure that's true. Houston could be the #1 in the West, and ucla could be #1 somewhere else.

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:21 pm

It makes more sense to send Houston to NY or Louisville and UCLA to Vegas than it does to send UCLA to either of those places. If the Bruins get a 1 I think they are locked into the West.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:52 pm

CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:21 pm It makes more sense to send Houston to NY or Louisville and UCLA to Vegas than it does to send UCLA to either of those places. If the Bruins get a 1 I think they are locked into the West.

I hear you, but if Houston (the current #1 team in the country) wins their conference tourney and ucla does not, I have a hard time believing they're going to send Houston outside of their geographical region.

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:21 am

Houston doesn’t really have a logical geographic region this year but Vegas is not their closest Sweet Sixteen site. Louisville is.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:20 am

Personally I think the 1 seeds are already determined by the committee. I don’t think they look at the tournaments much except for at the bottom (if Cinderella knocks a team out or a bubble team makes a run).

I think Houston, Kansas and UCLA are #1’s and the last is a toss up with Bama and Purdue. I think we are slated as a two unless we lose Thursday (losing three out of the last four could knock us down to a three)

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:15 am

CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:21 am Houston doesn’t really have a logical geographic region this year but Vegas is not their closest Sweet Sixteen site. Louisville is.

And what if Bama is a #1?

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:21 am

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:15 am
CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:21 am Houston doesn’t really have a logical geographic region this year but Vegas is not their closest Sweet Sixteen site. Louisville is.
And what if Bama is a #1?

Bama to Louisville, Houston to NYC.

Not sure why you think the committee would move UCLA out of the West when there isn’t a logical other team that benefits from that region. If they are looking to “punish” UCLA for losing in the conference tourney they’d move them down to a 2 seed.

I think the difference in flight time between Houston/Las Vegas and Houston/NYC is like 25 minutes. It’s not like Houston fans will have an easier time getting to really either place. Both are a lot of travel.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:36 am

CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:21 am
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:15 am
CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:21 am Houston doesn’t really have a logical geographic region this year but Vegas is not their closest Sweet Sixteen site. Louisville is.
And what if Bama is a #1?
Bama to Louisville, Houston to NYC.

Not sure why you think the committee would move UCLA out of the West when there isn’t a logical other team that benefits from that region. If they are looking to “punish” UCLA for losing in the conference tourney they’d move them down to a 2 seed.

I think the difference in flight time between Houston/Las Vegas and Houston/NYC is like 25 minutes. It’s not like Houston fans will have an easier time getting to really either place. Both are a lot of travel.

Okay, so you think there's zero chance ucla will be seeded outside of the West. The Pac tourney cannot affect their regional placement. Still think there are a few scenarios that could complicate this, but I understand the point you're making.

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:41 am

I think if UCLA is a one seed, they are in the West. I just don’t see a scenario where the committee sees them as a one seed but ships them to NYC because Houston’s flight time to Vegas would be a half hour shorter or as a “punishment” for losing in the Pac12 tourney.

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:12 am

My wandering mind...

UCLA in Vegas, and/or KU in Kansas City are virtual home games!

Kansas City is closer to Houston than Louisville.

UCLA in NYC would bring out their soon-to-be homies, the Rutgers faithful!!

UCLA won as many Quad 1 games last weekend as Houston has all season!

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:39 am

pc in NM wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:12 am My wandering mind...

UCLA in Vegas, and/or KU in Kansas City are virtual home games!

Kansas City is closer to Houston than Louisville.

UCLA in NYC would bring out their soon-to-be homies, the Rutgers faithful!!

UCLA won as many Quad 1 games last weekend as Houston has all season!

Houston is 5-1 in Q1 match-ups. ucla is 7-4.

AZ is 8-2.

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:11 pm

pc in NM wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:12 am Kansas City is closer to Houston than Louisville.

And if KU wasn’t a 1 seed that would certainly matter to where Houston is placed.

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:02 pm

CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:11 pm
pc in NM wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:12 am Kansas City is closer to Houston than Louisville.
And if KU wasn’t a 1 seed that would certainly matter to where Houston is placed.

Consider: http://www.crazysportsdude.com/bracketo ... -tightens/

The bracketology highest rated by http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

I think the higher seed (overall) gets the priority

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 5:09 pm

pc in NM wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:02 pm
CardiacCats97 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:11 pm
pc in NM wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:12 am Kansas City is closer to Houston than Louisville.
And if KU wasn’t a 1 seed that would certainly matter to where Houston is placed.
Consider: http://www.crazysportsdude.com/bracketo ... -tightens/

The bracketology highest rated by http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

I think the higher seed (overall) gets the priority

Again, this projection implies ucla as the Pac tourney winner. How can they remain the #1 in the West if they end up losing 2 of 3 to the only other strong team in their own league? Also, it would raise our Q1 record to 11-2, while ucla's would be 9-5.

Think there's a lot at stake in this Pac tourney, guys.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:48 pm

They won the conference by 4 games. We lost 3 that we shouldn't have and two of those were at home. A trick question would be who had the longest home win streak this year in the PAC? Answer is Arizona.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:55 am

TheCat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:48 pm They won the conference by 4 games. We lost 3 that we shouldn't have and two of those were at home. A trick question would be who had the longest home win streak this year in the PAC? Answer is Arizona.

I've never once read that "number of games won conference by" is a factor in tourney seeding.

Our bad losses matter, and they'll definitely weaken our seed status on Sunday. But...our bad losses would be offset by two wins over ucla plus all our other good wins. Again, a lot at stake this week.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Tue Mar 07, 2023 11:08 am

First of all if they were going to be moved out of the West (they wont) it would only occur if they lost in the first round of the PAC-12 tourney not against Arizona. You seem to think Arizona does well when it is seated in the West, it does not. Put me in the bracket that has Purdue as a one seed and I am happy especially if I'm a 4.

"Number of games won conference by" is not a criteria but losing at home to quad 2 or 3 teams is.

I have no idea why you are obsessed with the west. I would like to play in Vegas but other than that I don't care.

Here this will help. When we won the championship in 1997 our first round games were in Memphis. When we played for the championship and lost in 2001 our first round game was in Kansas City. Feel better?

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Mar 07, 2023 11:58 am

TheCat wrote: ↑Tue Mar 07, 2023 11:08 am First of all if they were going to be moved out of the West (they wont) it would only occur if they lost in the first round of the PAC-12 tourney not against Arizona. You seem to think Arizona does well when it is seated in the West, it does not. Put me in the bracket that has Purdue as a one seed and I am happy especially if I'm a 4.

"Number of games won conference by" is not a criteria but losing at home to quad 2 or 3 teams is.

I have no idea why you are obsessed with the west. I would like to play in Vegas but other than that I don't care.

Here this will help. When we won the championship in 1997 our first round games were in Memphis. When we played for the championship and lost in 2001 our first round game was in Kansas City. Feel better?

Point of clarification: I don't give a flying f*** which region we're seeded in. I'm only pointing out that things are not set in stone yet for the tourney.

How the top 5 teams do in their respective league tourneys will matter on Sunday.

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:02 pm

A good reason to not be in the West: Gonzaga

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:39 am

One mock had us in with the Zags and Xavier. That would be awkward for Tommy.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:09 am

TheCat wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:39 am One mock had us in with the Zags and Xavier. That would be awkward for Tommy.

An E8 matchup with Xavier would be crazy. Either AZ gets to its first FF since '01 or Sean gets to his first FF ever.

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:59 pm

Are we bubble 2/3 right now?

Get to Finals of the Pac Tourney and we are a 2 for sure?

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Mar 08, 2023 1:16 pm

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:59 pm Are we bubble 2/3 right now?

Get to Finals of the Pac Tourney and we are a 2 for sure?

Yes. And if we beat ucla in the Pac final, I wonder how the committee could rationalize shipping us out of the West. But that seems to be the prevailing opinion. Also, some here don't care about regional placement.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Mar 08, 2023 1:38 pm

IndianaZonaFan · Post by **IndianaZonaFan** » Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:23 pm

That really sucks for Jaylen and UCLA. Hope he has a quick and healthy recovery and able to return.

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Wed Mar 08, 2023 3:10 pm

Bad break for the Bruins...we've been there before.

MrBug708 · Post by **MrBug708** » Wed Mar 08, 2023 7:06 pm

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:02 pm

Gottlieb is crazy if he thinks that UCLA is going to be a 3 seed.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:02 pm

UCLA is a 1 seed if they make the finals of the Pac 12 tourney, maybe a 1 seed even if they lose tomorrow.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:17 pm

U.P. Zona Fan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:02 pm UCLA is a 1 seed if they make the finals of the Pac 12 tourney, maybe a 1 seed even if they lose tomorrow.

Agreed, but if they lose in the Pac tourney, they won't be the 1 in the West.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:25 pm

I hope they get the 1 in the east and have UConn, Texas, oral Roberts, and Florida Atlantic in their region.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:01 pm

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:22 am

Kind of don't want to ever see MSU In the tourney, lots of the people I watch games with around here are MSU fans, just makes it awkward. I like cheering for MSU also, you know for their sake, but, never against us.

g32knights · Post by **g32knights** » Fri Mar 10, 2023 7:21 am

U.P. Zona Fan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:22 am Kind of don't want to ever see MSU In the tourney, lots of the people I watch games with around here are MSU fans, just makes it awkward. I like cheering for MSU also, you know for their sake, but, never against us.

I don't think they'd beat NC State, if that was their matchup. I also think we would struggle against NC State.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:28 pm

I think nc state would be fine, kind of don't want to see Duke. They are trending up right now, gonna be under seeded.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:15 am

I think we just locked ourselves into a 2 seed regardless of today’s outcome

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 7:01 am

I agree Ari. We are for certain a 2 and I don’t think we have any chance for a 1. I think their is a slim chance we are plying yo stay out west but I think win or lose we are going to Orlando

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 7:26 am

Yep, agree we are a lock 2. Now it just depends on the matchups.

But bringing home the PAC 12 Tourney trophy and beating the Bruins twice in 1 season should still be motivation for this team tonight.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:18 am

Bad loss today probably means being a 2 seed shipped out with bad matchups, win means potentially 2 seed in the west with good matchups

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:17 am

ASUHATER! wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 8:18 am Bad loss today probably means being a 2 seed shipped out with bad matchups, win means potentially 2 seed in the west with good matchups

Exactly this.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:34 am

If UCLA does not get a one seed I just look at that as total disrespect for the PAC-12. They have not lost since January. What other team can say that? No one. I hope they get a one seed and do well in the tourney. Also hope the PAC gets 4 teams in even if it includes the Sun Devils or Oregon.

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 11:06 am

Lunardi has UCLA as the first #2 team (5).
We are the third #2 team (7).
ASSU is the last team in (46).

Captain Obvious · Post by **Captain Obvious** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:51 pm

TheCat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:34 am If UCLA does not get a one seed I just look at that as total disrespect for the PAC-12. They have not lost since January. What other team can say that? No one. I hope they get a one seed and do well in the tourney. Also hope the PAC gets 4 teams in even if it includes the Sun Devils or Oregon.

I couldn't agree more with regard to UCLA. Even without Clark I still think they're a serious NC contender. They pretty much dominated us in the last meeting and I expect about the same result tonight. It would be nice to get 4 teams in from the Pac but who knows. But let's be honest, UCLA is the only serious contender from the Pac 12 that can make a deep tournament run. All the others will be gone in the first or second game.

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 1:01 pm

Captain Oblivious-to-reality strikes again!

dovecanyoncat · Post by **dovecanyoncat** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 1:06 pm

Chomp ..... chomp ..... gulp ..... yummmmmm!

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 1:23 pm

Same guy that predicted we’d get swept in LA and would only win one game in the Pac12 tourney? LOL

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 2:05 pm

Captain Obvious wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:51 pm
TheCat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:34 am If UCLA does not get a one seed I just look at that as total disrespect for the PAC-12. They have not lost since January. What other team can say that? No one. I hope they get a one seed and do well in the tourney. Also hope the PAC gets 4 teams in even if it includes the Sun Devils or Oregon.
I couldn't agree more with regard to UCLA. Even without Clark I still think they're a serious NC contender. They pretty much dominated us in the last meeting and I expect about the same result tonight. It would be nice to get 4 teams in from the Pac but who knows. But let's be honest, UCLA is the only serious contender from the Pac 12 that can make a deep tournament run. All the others will be gone in the first or second game.

You have to score more than 55-60 against good teams to be a serious NC contender. Other than that your post is as good as usual.

MrBug708 · Post by **MrBug708** » Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:09 pm

TheCat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 2:05 pm
Captain Obvious wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:51 pm
TheCat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:34 am If UCLA does not get a one seed I just look at that as total disrespect for the PAC-12. They have not lost since January. What other team can say that? No one. I hope they get a one seed and do well in the tourney. Also hope the PAC gets 4 teams in even if it includes the Sun Devils or Oregon.
I couldn't agree more with regard to UCLA. Even without Clark I still think they're a serious NC contender. They pretty much dominated us in the last meeting and I expect about the same result tonight. It would be nice to get 4 teams in from the Pac but who knows. But let's be honest, UCLA is the only serious contender from the Pac 12 that can make a deep tournament run. All the others will be gone in the first or second game.
You have to score more than 55-60 against good teams to be a serious NC contender. Other than that your post is as good as usual.

Luckily can UCLA do just that and the advance stats back up the fact that they can absolutely score. Unless you have evidence otherwise?

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