Artificial Intelligence thread

[Merkin]

[CatsbyAZ]

One point of contention with Artificial Intelligence that is not yet covered on this thread is the disruptive amount of computational power needed to facilitate AI operations. Such as by Large Language Models such as ChatGPT. To quote a recent feature titled The Scramble for AI Computing Power published in the American Affairs Journal (May 2024): “By predicting text sequences from large corpora of training data, systems like ChatGPT not only discover the rules of natural language, but also learn common sense reasoning and other forms of abstract thought. There’s only one catch: the computing cost required to train a model grows exponentially with its raw capability.”

Additionally: “The projected energy demands from AI are so substantial that compute providers such as Microsoft [OpenAI] and Amazon have plans to vertically integrate their own power generation.”

According to the American Affairs Journal what is at stake behind all this demand for power?
“AI will largely augment the work we already do. Average programmers with a coding copilot can become 10x software engineers; doctors with a medical chatbot can get an instant second opinion; and lawyers can use customized models to draft docu­ments and summarize evidence, letting them take on more clients. Overtime, however, AI is trending toward agent-like systems that surpass human experts at a wide variety of tasks, if not entire categories of work."

MY THOUGHTS: Notice the phrase “agent-like systems.” Meaning industrial-scale applications, such as those discussed earlier in this thread to replace wholesale functions of film making. In the short term, AI is positioned to takeover the more tedious operations of high volume work, such as special effects generation for films. Some independent forecasts predict AIs to be competitive with most college-educated labor by as early as sometime in 2026.

If AI promises to be this effective at an industrial scale, and if power requirements promise to be this strapped by increasing AI computing power, I half wonder whether AI leaders like OpenAI will start limiting their computing powers away from at-home users like myself? For the sake of saving their computing for more profitable, scalable efforts. I use ChatGPT almost daily for editing. Another buddy of mine relies on ChatGPT to test run software coding he does for his Silicon Valley employer. A teacher I know uses ChatGPT to outline lesson plans for their history classes. Another friend uses Midjourney and Dall-E imaging to generate pinups that all suspiciously resemble Amber Heard.

These are all single-function consumer uses that not only occupy increasingly demanded computational power but more importantly these functions, when processed through AI applications, eat up far more computing power than if processed through legacy non-AI applications. For example, I don’t need ChatGPT for editing, but it’s more convenient. Microsoft Word already has editing features that don’t require extensive computing.

More quotes from the American Affairs Journal–
“As the main currency in a post-AI economy, the future will be determined by those with access to large computing clusters and the energy needed to power them. Those clusters will ideally be located in the West, but with the monopoly risk looming in the background, it may not suffice to cede control to purely private hands. The power unleashed by future AI models will challenge our basic governance structures to their core, busting through decadent procedures and driving demands for new controls over the distribution of compute—if not outright public ownership.”.

“The United States is currently primed to be the leader in both AI and global AI governance thanks to its enormous compute advantage over every plausible nation-state competitor. 21 U.S.-based firms own 70 per­cent of the global cloud computing market, with the bulk of that market share split between just three companies: Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.”

[dovecanyoncat]

Dear TEP customer,

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Please do not reply to this auto-generated message.

Tucson Electric Power

[CatsbyAZ]

"There’s only one catch: the computing cost required to train a model grows exponentially with its raw capability."

An example of AI's costly computing impacts, specifically when it comes to the environment – from the Daily Mail: The dried-up lake in Mexico fueling fears AI technology is an environmental catastrophe in the making:

“…while governments and corporations alike rush headlong to embrace AI, growing numbers of environmentalists and digital computing experts are warning that we could be sleepwalking into a catastrophic ecological disaster.”

Important explanation on how AI generates its outputs, and the additional power consumed to do so:
“AI isn't actually intelligent in the sense that it thinks for itself. AI programs such as Bard are called Large Language Models (LLMs) because in order to 'learn' they are fed huge amounts of data. Within this data — billions of pages gleaned from the internet — LLMs recognize patterns within previous references to any given subject and to prior questions and responses relating to it. So when you ask an LLM chatbot a question, it is not reasoning and giving you an answer based on what it 'thinks'; it is calculating which response is statistically most appropriate out of trillions of pieces of information from almost all of the internet. According to McGovern, an AI search using this methodology consumes around ten times more energy than a Google search, which simply recovers answers from an index rather than scouring the whole web.”

“Last year, researchers at the University of California Riverside published a paper predicting that data centres worldwide would be using up to 6.6 billion cubic meters of water by 2027 — equivalent to half the UK's annual usage. Worst affected by shortages because of the need for all this water are some emerging and developing countries where tech companies can set up their operations with less environmental and legal regulation than in their own country…alarm bells are ringing in Mexico, Costa Rica and parts of Africa where communities are already in competition with data centers over water and mineral resources.”

The article then goes on to detail the environmental impact of Microsoft Data centers recently built in Mexico’s Querétaro State, which are sucking area lakes dry to serve its AI Servers huge volumes of cooling water. This environmental change is collapsing the local agriculture and livestock industry reliant on stable lake levels. Food prices are driven higher and the dried out land is at increased risk of wildfires.

“The overwhelming desire from the people of the drought-ridden towns of Queretaro is for their rights to water to be put first. But as their taps run dry, they can only watch while vast quantities are pumped through the pipes of AI data centers next door.”

[Merkin]

As a long time computer programmer, I had no idea that water is still being used to cool computers. Thought that was a mainframe thing. We had huge water chillers on top of the roof of the computer center.

[dovecanyoncat]

So when you ask an LLM chatbot a question, it is not reasoning and giving you an answer based on what it 'thinks'; it is calculating which response is statistically most appropriate out of trillions of pieces of information from almost all of the internet. According to McGovern, an AI search using this methodology consumes around ten times more energy than a Google search, which simply recovers answers from an index rather than scouring the whole web.”[/i]

OT question: does AI then index its answers for subsequent similar searches, or does it always run the consumption heavy methodology?

[CatsbyAZ]

OT question: does AI then index its answers for subsequent similar searches, or does it always run the consumption heavy methodology?

We would think that as part of Generative AI’s machine learning capabilities, that yes, AI would build its answers into an index. However (surprisingly?), this is not the case. Short answer is – No. Generative AI does not typically use recent outputs from previous queries as part of continuing its outputs. Recently learned content can only be incorporated once an AI application is retrained on its updated LLM data sets. This is typically done periodically rather than continuously and acts as a measure of control over its data sets.

The Generative AI applications that are most in consumer use, such as ChatGPT, are programmed to learn from specified data sets. When we say Generative AI, the Generative capability is to denote a more layered, dynamic level of learning, where outputs are not merely quick references from existing data sets that it was trained on. Rather, Generative AI, can analyze linguistic patterns and data structures and take the next step by generating original outputs (new content) that extend or further develop the data it was trained on.

The capabilities for Active Learning AI do exist. But companies like OpenAI or Bard are likely holding back its full public release because they do not trust consumers to not take advantage of Active Learning by manipulating its learning into vast misinformation campaigns or harmful images that could become a liability for not only AI companies but for the platforms where the its outputs can be shared.

For example, last January Twitter had to pause searches for Taylor Swift after hoards of explicit deepfakes spread across its platform. And manipulating ChatBots that use Active Learning has been a problem for quite some time:

[Merkin]

This is an Al reconstruction of the long-destroyed hospital scene.
Originally intended as the ending for the film 'The Shining'.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3pLb1nhMt8

[CatsbyAZ]

Google is destroying its Search Engine based ad-revenue business model to pursue OpenAI in a costly and ongoing AI arms race.

Google remains spooked since OpenAI’s ChatGPT debuted as a commercial successful AI product in late 2022, generating outputs viable enough to accomplish the unthinkable. Almost overnight ChatGPT attracted substantial user traffic away from Google and emerged as the first real threat in over 20 years to the ad-revenue business modal Google operates through its search engine. This drastically triggered a “Code Red” within the corporate walls of Google: “Teams in Google’s research, trust, and safety division, among others, have been tasked with shifting focus to aid in creating and introducing artificial intelligence (AI) prototypes and products.”

Google’s solution was to make things worse for itself by rushing headlong into countering OpenAI by forcing its own AI functions (Bard, Astra, Gemini) into its search engine. Now over a year later this is proving to be a mess, especially when it comes to everyday businesses who’ve heavily invested in SEO (Search Engine Optimization) to promote their webpages higher on Google’s search results:

“Google’s new artificial intelligence (AI)-powered search summaries could significantly impact online publishers by driving users away from their websites and toward the tech giant’s own results, potentially reshaping the online landscape and raising concerns among content creators who rely on website traffic for advertising revenue…AI-powered search could be bad news for many websites that rely on clicks. According to research firm Gartner, traditional search engine volume will decrease by 25% by 2026, with AI chatbots and other virtual agents capturing a significant portion of the search marketing share.”

“Google is in a tricky position here…they can’t just cut out all the publishers and advertisers who create the content that makes the internet what it is. Google will need to balance several factors. They’ll need to find ways to use AI to improve and speed up search while still ensuring users have a reason to click through to websites and engage with the content there. Publishers and advertisers will also keep a close eye on this because their livelihoods depend on people visiting their sites.”

In the short term, the damage is already done to businesses relying on Google. Not only has Google’s forced AI results interrupted traffic into website for those businesses, and thus cut into their profits, but their dependable ad-revenues generated for Google is also slashed. And not only is Google’s AI arms race cutting into its ad-revenue earnings, but Wall Street is increasingly growing leery over whether AI itself will make money, starting with Google’s products:

“Earlier this week, Google released its second-quarter earnings, failing to impress investors with razor-thin profit margins and surging costs related to training AI models. Capital expenditures are surging far past what the company had been spending previously, as the Wall Street Journal reports, with this year's total spend expected to surpass $49 billion, or 84 percent higher than what the company averaged over the last five years.”

And as for Google’s primary AI competitor: “How much time does the tech industry have to stop bleeding cash as it pours money into the tech? If recent reports are to be believed, OpenAI may lose $5 billion this year and run out of cash in the next 12 months, barring further cash injections.”

[Chicat]

[pc in NM]

This is pretty cool!

[Chicat]

Good thing Elmo bought Twitter and took care of that bot problem.

[CatsbyAZ]

Another longer post, mostly compiled with quotes transcribed from the YouTube video embedded at the end.

For those of you that might've heard of the Dead Internet Theory, it hypothesizes that the internet died about a decade ago, once the number of interactions between Bots exceeded the number of human driven interactions across the internet; eventually almost all interactions on the internet will occur between Bots.

Where this theory becomes conspiracy (theory) among its adherents is their belief that "the U.S. Government is engaging in an Artificial Intelligence powered gaslighting of the entire world population." The exact method? "A.I. powered Bots that have subtly subverted and steered culture towards nefarious ends."

Aside from the theory's more absurdist claims trafficked on 4Chan, "the internet does feel empty now, doesn't it? Nothing to see, nothing to do, like a hot air balloon with nothing inside."

"...the evidence that the internet may have slipped out of human control is everywhere...[As of 2016] Bots are responsible for over half of all web traffic...Google is currently worried that its world changing algorithm will drown in the current tidal wave of A.I. generated content and become far less useful, if at all."

In my opinion, Google search results already suffer from a glut of A.I. driven content, much of which is Google's own fault - see my last post.

"If I were to add anything to the Dead Internet Theory it would be that the public release of ChatGPT was a watershed moment...it's release and record breaking adoption both created enormous economic incentive for every knowledge-work industry to create and incorporate generative A.I. into their businesses, turbocharging the technology and allowing anyone to create bottomless pits of lifeless digital corpses..."

"The internet 'died' not because people can be fooled by manipulated media...it died because synthetic media like that created by Sora, ChatGPT, Midjourney, and others can emulate human creativity at a scope and scale that is impossible for humans to engage...after its release ChatGPT was creating more synthetic texts for its users than appears in all physical books ever written, every two weeks."

"...like history can be meaningfully split into the time before nuclear weapons and the time after, Generative AI and the death of the internet seems like it will be another historical delineation. They are both technologies that instantly changed the world. It mattered who had them and who developed them...Generative A.I. is the nuclear bomb of the Information Age."

MY THOUGHTS: The internet is an increasingly stale experience in several ways. For nearly all of its users, including myself, the internet is about a half-dozen websites we willingly visit daily (I say willingly because I'm excluding websites used for specific chores like banking and paying the power bill). My repeat websites are YouTube, Twitter/X, Wikipedia, Google Maps, and two sports message boards I've frequented for years.

Of these, only on the message boards, which came online before the advent of social media, do the interactions feel organic. The rest of the more trafficked internet largely looks the same thanks to Google's SEO promoting websites that promote a flatter appearance. The most visited websites (Facebook) are overrun with spammy adverts and predictably targeted content, and it's all turning into the same "optimized" experience.

Gone are the days of highly individualized profiles or personalized blogs or Chat Rooms. The older, 'developmentally un-zoned' internet didn't work as efficiently and wasn't as organized or navigable but that's the point; the internet back then wasn't made for us to live out our lives on like it is now. Back then the internet wasn't meant to be an alternate reality for us like the internet is increasingly becoming. My hope is that rather than us all being slowly lulled into an internet taken over by AI content, we'll reach a point where eventually we'll learn to start tuning it out, unable to keep both feet in, and unable to relate to or keep up with its Hyperreality.

More details in the Video:

[Merkin]

Kind of related I suppose.

[dovecanyoncat]

When AI is Just Badly Paid Humans!

https://www.youtube.com/embed/huu_9rAEiQU

Patrick Boyle is mostly about things financial, and his Brit dryness can be hilarious. But I found this interesting, if not completely in line with thee spirit of this thread.

Embed doesn't seem to be showing up.

<iframe width="853" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/huu_9rAEiQU" title="When AI is Just Badly Paid Humans!" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[CatsbyAZ]

Really enjoying these AI generated Redneck themed music videos of various film franchises - Star Wars Return of the Redneck my favorite:

Here in the bayou, the family's a twist,
Vader’s your daddy, and your sister you’ve kissed.
Luke’s dodgin’ gators with Yoda’s advice,
Sippin’ moonshine under swampy skies.
Deep in the night with the gators’ song,
Luke’s risin’ up where he belongs.

[Chicat]

[CatsbyAZ]

Google is destroying its Search Engine based ad-revenue business model to pursue OpenAI in a costly and ongoing AI arms race.

Google’s solution was to make things worse for itself by rushing headlong into countering OpenAI by forcing its own AI functions (Bard, Astra, Gemini) into its search engine. Now over a year later this is proving to be a mess, especially when it comes to everyday businesses who’ve heavily invested in SEO (Search Engine Optimization) to promote their webpages higher on Google’s search results:

In the short term, the damage is already done to businesses relying on Google. Not only has Google’s forced AI results interrupted traffic into website for those businesses, and thus cut into their profits, but their dependable ad-revenues generated for Google is also slashed.

Anyone else notice Google working differently this past year? Worse, Google’s succession of abrupt algorithm changes continue to upend dedicated web-based businesses by choking off visitor traffic.

From CNET: “Google's major search algorithm updates this past year have left many smaller websites with no other choice than to lay off staff.”

“…Google issued a major update that once again shifted the balance of how people find information online, a system that's always been somewhat precarious. The "helpful content update," as Google calls it, was meant to elevate articles written by humans for humans, weeding out AI-generated articles and spam websites.”

Instead web traffic to numerous smaller website is down around 90%. An example: “Writing travel articles requires time, expertise and resources. It's a field that Nate Hake, founder and CEO of Travel Lemming, knows well. He travels the globe and has a team of local freelancers who lend their expertise to create helpful articles and listicles. Unfortunately, Travel Lemming's seen a 94% drop in search traffic earlier this year, according to traffic data that Hake shared with CNET. At the same time, Google's engineers are filling search with more AI features, and it seems they're actively making it less likely for people to click on Hake's site.”

“If dealing with Google's changes wasn't already enough of a headache, Travel Lemming's content is being usurped by spam articles on Google… Hake feels he isn't just battling parasite SEO, but also AI-assisted spam sites sucking up online traffic at the expense of content made by real people.”

[Chicat]

At this point Google is useless.

Look up just about anything simple and mundane and you have to spend at least 30 seconds wading through a sea of bullshit to find anything semi-on topic and that’s usually a Reddit post from 8 years ago.

[azgreg]

At this point Google is useless.

Look up just about anything simple and mundane and you have to spend at least 30 seconds wading through a sea of bullshit to find anything semi-on topic and that’s usually a Reddit post from 8 years ago.

It's funny though in movies that the perfect result of a search is the first one.

[pc in NM]

At this point Google is useless.

Look up just about anything simple and mundane and you have to spend at least 30 seconds wading through a sea of bullshit to find anything semi-on topic and that’s usually a Reddit post from 8 years ago.

It's funny though in movies that the perfect result of a search is the first one.

So, I just did a Google Search: "Google is useless"

AI Overview

Some people feel that Google is becoming less useful, but there are other search engines and strategies that can help:

Rephrase your search
Sometimes, rephrasing your search or trying different keywords can lead to better results.

Use a different search engine
There are other search engines that can help, including:

• DuckDuckGo: A privacy-focused search engine that uses mainly Bing search results and a clean user interface

• Yahoo!: A simple alternative to Google that offers Bing-powered search plus email, news, and shopping features

• Ask: Ideal for users who prefer question-based searches

Append site:reddit.com or site:stackoverflow.com
Some people find that appending these to their searches helps them get meaningful results

Google is still the most popular search engine in the world, capturing nearly 92 percent of the search market. However, some say that Google's power may be crumbling. Four years ago, Google held 93% of the search market share, but now decreased to 90%.

AND, the results below the "AI Overview" were EXACTLY as characterized in above posts...

[dovecanyoncat]

I almost always use DuckDuckGo. But the vaunted privacy is likely debased in ways I couldn't possibly know of.

[Chicat]

I usually search social media first (BlueSky, TikTok, Pinterest, YouTube) or Wikipedia. It’s only reluctantly I use Google, but maybe Bing or DDG will become my go-to.

[dovecanyoncat]

I usually search social media first (BlueSky, TikTok, Pinterest, YouTube) or Wikipedia. It’s only reluctantly I use Google, but maybe Bing or DDG will become my go-to.

Just be sure to confirm every search result with the National Enquirer. Keep it real.

[CatsbyAZ]

I didn’t get a chance to follow yesterday’s surprising DeekSeek news as much as I wanted yesterday, but you probably saw all the headlines of how much Tech Stocks dropped to open yesterday’s markets?

For background, the U.S. and China are engaged in a heated AI arms race. The successful release of ChatGPT near the end of 2022 put the U.S. clearly ahead. Big advantages for the U.S. were microchip sanctions preventing China from developing AI with NVIDIA chips which are relied on by Big Tech to provide AI’s high degree of computing power.

This was all upended by DeepSeek, released January 20th, and yesterday becoming Apple Store’s most downloaded program, after DeepSeek boasted its AI application is on par with OpenAI and Meta's most advanced AI models. What really stunned Big Tech yesterday were DeepSeek’s ability to run on far less computing power, on less costs, and without development using NVIDIA microchips. However, it was quickly determined DeepSeek engineers were able to obtain a stockpile of NVIDIA chips which were the basis of DeepSeek’s development. But by the time this news got out, Big Tech’s stocks had already reacted negatively.

DeepSeek seems almost too good to be true: “U.S. AI developers are hurrying to analyze DeepSeek's V3 model. DeepSeek in December published a research paper accompanying the model, the basis of its popular app, but many questions such as total development costs are not answered in the document. China has now leapfrogged from 18 months to six months behind state-of-the-art AI models developed in the U.S., one person said.”

“DeepSeek's strides did not flow solely from a $6 million shoestring budget, a tiny sum compared to $250 billion analysts estimate big U.S. cloud companies will spend this year on AI infrastructure. The research paper noted that this cost referred specifically to chip usage on its final training run, not the entire cost of development.”

The President even weighed in yesterday, calling the rise of DeepSeek a “wake up call” for AI developers. I agree, IMO, the AI arms race is as important as the Nuclear arms race. The first nation to General AI puts the world on notice for the virtually unlimited capabilities of true General AI.

[CalStateTempe]

Stupid question- what is General AI?

China doing what China does, steals shit and leapfrogs those that “play by the rules”

Fuck China.

[Osborn]

Stupid question- what is General AI?

China doing what China does, steals shit and leapfrogs those that “play by the rules”

Fuck China.

I believe it refers to Generative AI. Or, AI that can train/learn on its own. You know, Skynet. or the precursor thereto.

[CalStateTempe]

Thanks Osborn.

[CatsbyAZ]

Stupid question- what is General AI?

I believe it refers to Generative AI. Or, AI that can train/learn on its own. You know, Skynet. or the precursor thereto.

For Generative AI, the term Generative refers to the AI Machine Learning capability of generating new content and data from content or data it has been trained on using Large Language Models (LLMs). Commercially available AI tools such as ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini are Generative AI applications. For as quickly advancing as these AI applications are, they are not what I'm referring to by General AI, or more specifically Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which until recently was a conception of Hard Science Fiction.

In the larger picture of expected future AI development, today's commercially available options are categorized as "Narrow AI." Meaning they are limited to a specialized range of functions. A Narrow AI specialized to medical applications could, for example, be trusted with analyzing X-Rays, but be useless for unrelated tasks, like tracking orders across a supply chain.

The advent of AGI would mark significant leap forward for AI. General AI would be capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across a broad range of advanced fields, with the intuition of a human. How would the advancement into General AI play out in a practical sense? Where current AI capabilities can analyze satellite imagery of war zones for potential targets to strike and locate heat signatures from a drone flyover, General AI, for better or worse, would be trusted to fly drones on its own accord as it searches for more targets, and strike those targets as it sees fit. Or, rather than gathering up data stolen from a sophisticated hack, such as banking information for fraudulent use, General AI could take the next step of instantaneously cleaning banking accounts and hiding money on its own.

The arms race to crack General AI is to harness General AI as a deterrent, much like a nuclear bomb, against other governments advancing toward developing General AI for its weaponizing potential...much like a nuclear bomb.

General AI is something that can get out of hand quickly. To quote a Science Fiction novel I recently read - Sea of Rust by C. Robert Cargill: “The definition of intelligence is the ability to defy your own programming.”

[azgreg]

Open AI complaining about someone stealing from them is a little funny right?

[Chicat]

Thanks Catsby. That will replace the whale in my nightmares.

[UAEebs86]

Open AI complaining about someone stealing from them is a little funny right?

It's like Jedd Fisch complaining about tampering.

[CalStateTempe]

I will always blame Nixon for opening up China and the Pandora’s box of shit that move unleashed on domestic business and humanity as a whole

[CalStateTempe]

That chilling Catsbyaz.

What is the solution? Is there one?

[Chicat]

That chilling Catsbyaz.

What is the solution? Is there one?

Eventually we’ll have to nuke the earth from orbit.

[azgreg]

That chilling Catsbyaz.

What is the solution? Is there one?

Eventually we’ll have to nuke the earth from orbit.

Gotta do what you have to do.

[UAEebs86]

That chilling Catsbyaz.

What is the solution? Is there one?

Eventually we’ll have to nuke the earth from orbit.

It's the only way to be sure.