10 Predictions for 2014-15

[Beachcat97]

If we get blown out by someone, let me know. Doubt it happens.

Does it matter that we lost by 4 and not 24? A loss is a loss.

Is this a serious question? If we lost by 24 to UNLV something would be seriously wrong with the team.

I don't think anything is less "seriously wrong" given that we lost by 4 to this team. A team that multiple Pac teams have already beaten decisively.

If Rondae hadn't fouled out and/or Bash's three hadn't been interfered with, we probably would've won. If we were blown out we wouldn't have even been in the game and had zero chance to win at the end. I'm not sure why you think both situations are identical.

And I don't care what other Pac teams did. You know the motivation for UNLV wasn't the same.

Fine. But when it comes down to things like RPI, KenPom, BPI (ie: metrics that matter for tourney seeding), these subjective nuances you're pointing out won't matter. It's a loss to a team with a horrendous RPI from a weak conference. And the margin of defeat means nothing.

[azcat49]

Dont disagree but we will have our shot to win it all and we know that. Kentucky sucked all regular season then played well in the tourney last year and we will improve. I just don't worry much about what I believe is a meaningless loss. You still have to win 6 in late March/April

[Beachcat97]

Dont disagree but we will have our shot to win it all and we know that. Kentucky sucked all regular season then played well in the tourney last year and we will improve. I just don't worry much about what I believe is a meaningless loss. You still have to win 6 in late March/April

I don't see this team getting to the FF. Not based on what I've seen over the past 6 weeks. They're going to win a lot of games, maybe even a Pac title. But I don't see the toughness and the offensive consistency needed to advance deep in the tourney. Could they get hot in March and make us all very happy? Sure. But so far, Sean Miller's teams have flamed out in March (no Pac tourney titles, no FFs). Who on this team can make two FTs with the game on the line? Who on this team can hit a three pointer late in the game down three? Who can put this team on his back (or their backs) and win a title?

[3goggles]

Dont disagree but we will have our shot to win it all and we know that. Kentucky sucked all regular season then played well in the tourney last year and we will improve. I just don't worry much about what I believe is a meaningless loss. You still have to win 6 in late March/April

I don't see this team getting to the FF. Not based on what I've seen over the past 6 weeks. They're going to win a lot of games, maybe even a Pac title. But I don't see the toughness and the offensive consistency needed to advance deep in the tourney. Could they get hot in March and make us all very happy? Sure. But so far, Sean Miller's teams have flamed out in March (no Pac tourney titles, no FFs). Who on this team can make two FTs with the game on the line? Who on this team can hit a three pointer late in the game down three? Who can put this team on his back (or their backs) and win a title?

Good thing your opinion DOES NOT matter!

[Beachcat97]

Dont disagree but we will have our shot to win it all and we know that. Kentucky sucked all regular season then played well in the tourney last year and we will improve. I just don't worry much about what I believe is a meaningless loss. You still have to win 6 in late March/April

I don't see this team getting to the FF. Not based on what I've seen over the past 6 weeks. They're going to win a lot of games, maybe even a Pac title. But I don't see the toughness and the offensive consistency needed to advance deep in the tourney. Could they get hot in March and make us all very happy? Sure. But so far, Sean Miller's teams have flamed out in March (no Pac tourney titles, no FFs). Who on this team can make two FTs with the game on the line? Who on this team can hit a three pointer late in the game down three? Who can put this team on his back (or their backs) and win a title?

Good thing your opinion DOES NOT matter!

Well, it matters about as much as an anonymous discussion board post can mater, I suppose.

I'm certainly not the only one on this board who's feeling a tad apprehensive; this sentiment can be found in several threads, expressed by many different contributors.

It's Year Six of the Miller Era. Still waiting on his first FF. Heck, still waiting for his first Pac tourney title, though if Miller went 15 years with a handful of FFs and zero Pac tourney titles, would anyone care?

[Salty]

This team is finding its identity.

No need to panic!

[Beachcat97]

This team is finding its identity.

No need to panic!

Ok, Salt I'll have faith.

[az91]

This team is finding its identity.

No need to panic!

Yeah, right, LOL

[HiCat]

Cats are still on the road to the FF. I'm almost thinking the loss was needed and a good thing. I know, sounds strange but we'll see...

Merry Xmas...

[Machina]

Cats are still on the road to the FF. I'm almost thinking the loss was needed and a good thing. I know, sounds strange but we'll see...

Merry Xmas...

I am sorry, but I do not buy this "needed loss" thing in any way. If I team is going to be better after a loss, that is a failure on the coaching staff in my opinion.

[Longhorned]

My current expectations are for a Sweet 16 exit. Mostly because Miller is developing this team in a way that goes too far beyond my understanding of the game. When I used to think this was a Final Four team, that was because of Miller's focus on defense, but now I realize that Miller is sacrificing defense for the sake of offense, and in a way that I have trouble imagining the development of that offense. I used to the think the favored (and starting) lineup would have Stanley Johnson and Rondae together, but Miller doesn't want to develop that combination. And I thought Rondae would get all the minutes he can handle. Instead, Miller is developing a team with a different kind of identity that I don't understand well enough to understand the full trajectory. All I see is a team that can't defend or rebound well enough to beat Sweet 16 talent on a neutral floor.

[Beachcat97]

Wow. People jumping off of the bandwagon left and right. And what's even more troubling is that all the bandwagon-jumper-offers are providing very, very good reasons for doubting this team.

[HiCat]

https://video.search.yahoo.com/video/pl ... mp=yhs-001

[Longhorned]

Wow. People jumping off of the bandwagon left and right. And what's even more troubling is that all the bandwagon-jumper-offers are providing very, very good reasons for doubting this team.

As long as you're not including me among those providing good reasons. For me it's a divergence between what Miller is doing and what I'm able to understand. At this point, I see Sweet 16, but I'll take Miller Vision over Longhorned Vision, and he's clearly up to something that has no plans for a Sweet 16 exit. But one thing is for sure: If defense was ever Miller's priority, it isn't this season. He's coaching for offense at the expense of defense.

[azcat49]

I find Longhorned's comments intriguing. I am going to have to watch more closely

[Longhorned]

I find Longhorned's comments intriguing. I am going to have to watch more closely

I don't know what we'd see by watching or rewatching more closely. As Winger points out, Rondae gets to the line better than anyone on our team, and he scores at the stripe. His efficiency field goal percentage is almost as high as Tarc's. Obviously TJ runs the offense, but all around, Rondae is arguably the best offensive weapon Arizona has. He's also the best defender Arizona has at the 2, 3, and 4.

Everyone including national TV guys like Gottlieb understand that York is on the floor for his offense, and at the expense of Arizona's defense while he's out there. Rondae has no such trade-off. And yet Rondae is averaging only two minutes per game more than York, and York starts. I understand that Rondae fouled out at UNLV, and I don't care that two of those foul calls were BS. I'm not talking about the UNLV game, and that game doesn't influence my thoughts other than to point to how important it is to have Rondae on the floor. What I don't understand is why Rondae isn't on the floor 35+ minutes a game, giving Arizona the defense and the offense it needs to win, and developing the on-floor chemistry it needs for SJ and RHJ together. And I know that what I'm saying devolves into conversations where people make **** up to defend York, but I'm not talking about York. I'm talking about a coach's decision to play a player who I and others think is the seventh best player on the team at the expense of minutes to the best player on the team and the best lineup that the team can put forward. Miller is simply doing something that I can't understand.

I just don't see any reason to believe the old criticisms that Miller focuses too much on defense and doesn't develop his bench. The opposite now appears to be true. For me, this isn't just about Arizona. I don't see how any team in the country can get past the Sweet 16 playing a role player in place of its best player.

[azcat49]

I agree with your assesmment LH, I guess I just wasn't watching that closely to develope those thoughts until you brought them out.

I know Miller blasted York after the final in Maui (where York sat most of the second half) and it was obvious RHJ was 1B to SJ'S 1A as to best player.

I just liked the way you framed it I guess

[luteformayor2]

I find Longhorned's comments intriguing. I am going to have to watch more closely

I don't know what we'd see by watching or rewatching more closely. As Winger points out, Rondae gets to the line better than anyone on our team, and he scores at the stripe. His efficiency field goal percentage is almost as high as Tarc's. Obviously TJ runs the offense, but all around, Rondae is arguably the best offensive weapon Arizona has. He's also the best defender Arizona has at the 2, 3, and 4.

Everyone including national TV guys like Gottlieb understand that York is on the floor for his offense, and at the expense of Arizona's defense while he's out there. Rondae has no such trade-off. And yet Rondae is averaging only two minutes per game more than York, and York starts. I understand that Rondae fouled out at UNLV, and I don't care that two of those foul calls were BS. I'm not talking about the UNLV game, and that game doesn't influence my thoughts other than to point to how important it is to have Rondae on the floor. What I don't understand is why Rondae isn't on the floor 35+ minutes a game, giving Arizona the defense and the offense it needs to win, and developing the on-floor chemistry it needs for SJ and RHJ together. And I know that what I'm saying devolves into conversations where people make **** up to defend York, but I'm not talking about York. I'm talking about a coach's decision to play a player who I and others think is the seventh best player on the team at the expense of minutes to the best player on the team and the best lineup that the team can put forward. Miller is simply doing something that I can't understand.

I just don't see any reason to believe the old criticisms that Miller focuses too much on defense and doesn't develop his bench. The opposite now appears to be true. For me, this isn't just about Arizona. I don't see how any team in the country can get past the Sweet 16 playing a role player in place of its best player.

Well said.

We are not a top caliber team without RHJ getting minutes. It is befuddling

[Longhorned]

I can't remember if it was Quakercat23 or Winger who showed that the lineup of TJ-SJ-RHJ-BA-KT has been on the court only 8% of the available minutes so far this season. So clearly Miller isn't developing that lineup, and it's too late in the season to expect him to start doing that at this point. And if he isn't developing the expected top lineup, it's hard argue that he's developing his bench.

The only viable conclusion is that Miller views York as one of the five main players he's going to rely on to get Arizona to the Final Four, and that Rondae will be fit in where he's needed for around 25 minutes per game, like a classic sixth man. For 15 minutes a game, Arizona's best offensive and defensive player will be on the bench, watching the action and cheering his teammates on.

We really can't even say that, in big tourney games from the Sweet 16 forward, Miller will give RHJ all the minutes he can handle. The tourney isn't the time when coaches (and especially Miller) experiment with their lineups. Pre-conference is the time when coaches settle on their rotations and develop synergies within lineups, including in games where you're ahead big.

[Lando05]

I can't remember if it was Quakercat23 or Winger who showed that the lineup of TJ-SJ-RHJ-BA-KT has been on the court only 8% of the available minutes so far this season. So clearly Miller isn't developing that lineup, and it's too late in the season to expect him to start doing that at this point. And if he isn't developing the expected top lineup, it's hard argue that he's developing his bench.

The only viable conclusion is that Miller views York as one of the five main players he's going to rely on to get Arizona to the Final Four, and that Rondae will be fit in where he's needed for around 25 minutes per game, like a classic sixth man. For 15 minutes a game, Arizona's best offensive and defensive player will be on the bench, watching the action and cheering his teammates on.

We really can't even say that, in big tourney games from the Sweet 16 forward, Miller will give RHJ all the minutes he can handle. The tourney isn't the time when coaches (and especially Miller) experiment with their lineups. Pre-conference is the time when coaches settle on their rotations and develop synergies within lineups, including in games where you're ahead big.

This is what I have seen and get the sense of as well as the season has gone on. I hope Miller's vision brings a final 4 this year, but in my vision I don't see it but that's why I don't get paid millions of dollars to coach for a living. If Miller stays the course and we don't make the final 4 than Miller is going to deserve legitimate criticism for this season. I hope that Miller's season long vision brings what I know we all want as fans, but I'm depressed because things are happening I don't understand either Longhorned.

[Beachcat97]

So the take-away from the latest turn in this thread is: no one understands what Miller is doing with these lineups/rotations, but hopefully Miller himself knows exactly what he's doing and that it'll culminate in a FF. Because if it doesn't, the natives will be beyond restless.

[az91]

So the take-away from the latest turn in this thread is: no one understands what Miller is doing with these lineups/rotations, but hopefully Miller himself knows exactly what he's doing and that it'll culminate in a FF. Because if it doesn't, the natives will be beyond restless.

I think that sums it up pretty neatly.

[CalStateTempe]

So the take-away from the latest turn in this thread is: no one understands what Miller is doing with these lineups/rotations, but hopefully Miller himself knows exactly what he's doing and that it'll culminate in a FF. Because if it doesn't, the natives will be beyond restless.

yup.

But Miller has shown himself to be stubborn with line-ups in the past. see Mark Lyons experiment.

(But CST, we didn't have a bench).

[Longhorned]

So we can't say anymore that Miller overly focuses on defense, or that his rotation is too tight. The other thing we can't say anymore is that Miller is obsessed with size. Unless he makes a late change, his chosen starting lineup and most of the available minutes go to a combination of smaller players instead of the huge combination of SJ, RHJ, BA, and KT. The need for York to start and play more than half of available minutes staggers the substitution pattern and prevents the huge lineup from coalescing.

[Beachcat97]

Man the Pac is bad. UW loses at home to Stony Brook and UCLA is getting back to being their post-Wooden selves.

I've now seen every team in the top 10 at least once or twice. The only two I really don't think we can beat are Duke and (obviously) UK. So as long as we can lock up a #1 seed in the West, which won't be easy with Gonzaga out there, we should be in a great position to reach the FF. I would love a rematch with Wisconsin along the way.

[catgrad97]

I don't get the meltdown either. I called this loss back in November because you can see how UNLV gets Arizona to play out of sync.

It just drives home the point that these games aren't automatic, even with the best system. This is a different time than the Wooden era--not coaching to individuals at this level will burn out some seriously talented players.

If Miller AND his players--emphasis on both, because this loss wasn't just on their performances--respond with a fresh start, this loss will be forgotten in March.

The reason why I include Miller in that statement is because the UNLV loss, IMHO, wasn't just about crap effort. I hope we don't have to find that out against ASU, because I've given up waiting on these top recruiting classes (I see you, Zeus and Gabe) to take over games on the offensive end. Adapt or die.

As much as John Wooden played the system and not the team, even he didn't ram his system down the throats of Kareem and Walton. He took a more pragmatic approach and kept winning.

Look, anything short of a Final Four would be a massive waste of talent with this team. If you're not getting it out of them on the level of the UNLV loss, you as a coach have to be as critical of yourself as you are of the team's effort.

Losing to a team that was even ASU's b*tch isn't a setback that a week of boot camp practice is going to cure. The approach with this group has to change somehow--or the weardown is going to happen to our own guys. Even at Arizona, bearing down endlessly won't deliver a title. It didn't in '97 and it won't now.

Anybody could see the oncoming problems in the Gonzaga win. Deldre Carr's officiating sucked on the jump ball and Pitts foul at the end, yes, but it never should have come to that.

Why it did is that to Gabe York, to Kaleb Tarczewski and to T.J. McConnell, good shooting is not a relaxed, instinctive skill they have confidence in. TJ, to be sure, didn't come into Arizona with those struggles from either line--but he has them now. If that's not indicative of coaching, what is?

I wouldn't have anyone other than Sean Miller as our coach. I wouldn't because I know he can stop, reflect and change what isn't working to get his guys to relax and play with full desire, smartly, to their strengths. Now is the time.

[HiCat]

I don't get the meltdown either. I called this loss back in November because you can see how UNLV gets Arizona to play out of sync.

It just drives home the point that these games aren't automatic, even with the best system. This is a different time than the Wooden era--not coaching to individuals at this level will burn out some seriously talented players.

If Miller AND his players--emphasis on both, because this loss wasn't just on their performances--respond with a fresh start, this loss will be forgotten in March.

The reason why I include Miller in that statement is because the UNLV loss, IMHO, wasn't just about crap effort. I hope we don't have to find that out against ASU, because I've given up waiting on these top recruiting classes (I see you, Zeus and Gabe) to take over games on the offensive end. Adapt or die.

As much as John Wooden played the system and not the team, even he didn't ram his system down the throats of Kareem and Walton. He took a more pragmatic approach and kept winning.

Look, anything short of a Final Four would be a massive waste of talent with this team. If you're not getting it out of them on the level of the UNLV loss, you as a coach have to be as critical of yourself as you are of the team's effort.

Losing to a team that was even ASU's b*tch isn't a setback that a week of boot camp practice is going to cure. The approach with this group has to change somehow--or the weardown is going to happen to our own guys. Even at Arizona, bearing down endlessly won't deliver a title. It didn't in '97 and it won't now.

Anybody could see the oncoming problems in the Gonzaga win. Deldre Carr's officiating sucked on the jump ball and Pitts foul at the end, yes, but it never should have come to that.

Why it did is that to Gabe York, to Kaleb Tarczewski and to T.J. McConnell, good shooting is not a relaxed, instinctive skill they have confidence in. TJ, to be sure, didn't come into Arizona with those struggles from either line--but he has them now. If that's not indicative of coaching, what is?

I wouldn't have anyone other than Sean Miller as our coach. I wouldn't because I know he can stop, reflect and change what isn't working to get his guys to relax and play with full desire, smartly, to their strengths. Now is the time.

[HiCat]

Ditto on CG97's thoughts. I don't get the meltdown either. UNLV was jacked up for this game. Miller's half time interview predicted the loss, not that he didn't want them to win. Cats just didn't play well. It happens, but they'll focus on mistakes and my guess is they'll make appropriate adjustments.

[Longhorned]

I don't get the meltdown either. I called this loss back in November because you can see how UNLV gets Arizona to play out of sync.

It just drives home the point that these games aren't automatic, even with the best system. This is a different time than the Wooden era--not coaching to individuals at this level will burn out some seriously talented players.

If Miller AND his players--emphasis on both, because this loss wasn't just on their performances--respond with a fresh start, this loss will be forgotten in March.

The reason why I include Miller in that statement is because the UNLV loss, IMHO, wasn't just about crap effort. I hope we don't have to find that out against ASU, because I've given up waiting on these top recruiting classes (I see you, Zeus and Gabe) to take over games on the offensive end. Adapt or die.

As much as John Wooden played the system and not the team, even he didn't ram his system down the throats of Kareem and Walton. He took a more pragmatic approach and kept winning.

Look, anything short of a Final Four would be a massive waste of talent with this team. If you're not getting it out of them on the level of the UNLV loss, you as a coach have to be as critical of yourself as you are of the team's effort.

Losing to a team that was even ASU's b*tch isn't a setback that a week of boot camp practice is going to cure. The approach with this group has to change somehow--or the weardown is going to happen to our own guys. Even at Arizona, bearing down endlessly won't deliver a title. It didn't in '97 and it won't now.

Anybody could see the oncoming problems in the Gonzaga win. Deldre Carr's officiating sucked on the jump ball and Pitts foul at the end, yes, but it never should have come to that.

Why it did is that to Gabe York, to Kaleb Tarczewski and to T.J. McConnell, good shooting is not a relaxed, instinctive skill they have confidence in. TJ, to be sure, didn't come into Arizona with those struggles from either line--but he has them now. If that's not indicative of coaching, what is?

I wouldn't have anyone other than Sean Miller as our coach. I wouldn't because I know he can stop, reflect and change what isn't working to get his guys to relax and play with full desire, smartly, to their strengths. Now is the time.

Arizona found so many ways to lose that game, it's hard to point to a principal reason for the loss, but here it is: RHJ fouling out. Had he been in the game over the final 7 minutes, Arizona wins that game. That's why I haven't been talking about the UNLV game. It doesn't really affect my expectations/predictions for this year's team, other than to underscore the importance of having RHJ on the court. I agree with your hope that Miller doesn't just focus on the team's crap effort in Las Vegas the night before Christmas Eve.

[EOCT]

Gosh.

When I finish, please hurl invectives my way. How about "#%@&%!(rhymes with "boner")

I love Coach Miller. He's such a genuine leader and he's so fucking smart. Tough as nails, too; matter of fact he dines on them.

My thesis?

....Man plays a system, and doesn't allow emotions or politics to change his long term goal to be the best of the hundreds of D-1 teams by end-of-season.

....As a long term strategist he starts with the elements of his system(including individual player fundamentals), and slowly builds toward an NCAA focus. He in fact starts with player combos which include any player with a possibility of rotation play, either early or late season. He triages areas needing help----example, offensive cohesion over D during OOC and early conference. He holds reins tight during early and mid season and doesn't often push for ultimate hair-on-fire individual play during that time. This strategy keeps a healthy lid on player and team development and often concludes in close games. This has been true every season as our Arizona chief.

Player and team development and focus tighten through the season and hit their apex during the Tournaments when he achieves this damn delicate nexus of both holding control and letting his players truly explode, if they will----in their own ways. Sining example is, of course, DWill.

....A stunning master of recruiting and player development. On the recruiting side has a unique ability to find and sell youngsters who actually have chemistry probability with the projected team. Unh, much easier said than done.

....He has the guts to reach for strategic nuances which have the potential to pay off. Example: play RHJ at sixth, where this extraordinary guy can often bring a juice which motivates---wakes up, if necessary---a Wildcat team. Coach has explained this several times. You of course don't have to agree with the strategy, but you have say he's been entirely transparent about what he's doing.

Does Coach know how good RHJ is? Dumb question. No one on the hoops globe fails to recognize RHJ's unique, truly powerful talent.

Having said these things, do I wish RHJ would get more minutes? Sure. My sense is something like 30 MPG. Not much more, and maybe less because RHJ has a uniquely hyper approach which I think Coach feels could bring the big guy up against the wall.

Oh, the UNLV game---the one we could have won which would have obviated our team and coach frustration. Free throws, boards, our normal D intensity, losing RHJ for a huge 7 minutes, the T and Mack Center with a billion zany fans; and another point 99%(100%?) of you would disagree about. UNLV beat us. They won because they played better. they boarded us and they had clear dynamic performances from two top-25 ranked League forecast players. To wit:

Rashad Vaughn at 6'5" is a genuine 5 star player who made his long team go and was responsible for this win. His 21 points didn't hurt.

Then Christian Wood. Good grief---Christian Wood. Six eleven and plays much taller. Destroyed everyone who tried him, and made plays he couldn't possibly have had the ability to make. Breakout, Dude!

Kill me if you must, but please don't bring up UNLV losing to ASU and Stanford. Simply an invalid point.

Lastly, I mean no offense to anyone who has offered their profound views about our Cats and Coach. Well, maybe a couple( ) but certainly not my buddy Prof. LH whom I greatly respect.

[gumby]

To sum up: Miller makes perplexing choices nobody understands, but nobody would rather have any other coach.

It's good to know sports is still like religion. Or maybe it's like politics. "Congress sucks! But my guy deserves re-election."

Or, maybe it's like burgers. I have no freaking idea what's in this baby, but there's no other burger I'd rather have.

[gumby]

Lemme take a crack at this riddle wrapped in a mystery and stuffed into an enigma, with a side of rice. Miller is worried that we are easy to guard. To say Rondae is our best offensive player is saying a lot. And it isn't all good. No jumper. No game from the perimeter. Doesn't post up, though he should. His reputation was killer defender.

That's our best offensive player? This scares the coach, because you just have to lay off him. So he wants to diversify the offense by stretching the opposing defense. Enter York, and the wooing of TJ to shoot more. When Rondae plays with the other starters, sans York, the opposing defenses will just sag. Then it's wild-ass drives or missed jumpers from Rondae and Stanley. Rondae needs to handle the ball less, but he doesn't appear to know this. Stanley needs to keep it moving, and he doesn't always do this.

Again, Rondae is our best offensive player. This is debatable, but it's also plausible. But, guess what? He's not a great offensive player. So, coach is working on a solution.

Miller may never get there, and may have to settle for defending his way to greatness. That's what we did last year. That is, refocusing on being a shutdown defense and hoping the points come from turnovers or the other team's breakdowns. If this occurs, Rondae's minutes will increase, because his strength is defense.

[Longhorned]

EOCT and gumby, I'm going to let that stew for 3 hours (no longer because it can become ragged), but as a hungry guy on the sofa, I just want to call out to the cooks in the kitchen and say it smells divine.

[gumby]

1. Ashley and TJ will be All-Pac
2. We're going to see at least three different starting lineups before Pac play begins
3. Miller will get his first FF
4. Another Pac 12 title
5. We're going to lose at least one OOC game
6. Undefeated at home
7. Stanley Johnson will be very, very good, but he won't make quite the impact that AG did
8. Pitts will get more PT than York
9. PJC will remind people of Nic Wise
10. Kadeem Allen will be a key 6th or 7th man

So I was wrong on (8) and (10), and probably (2).

Still looking good with (1), (3), (4), (6), (7), and (9).

Not sure on (5).

I predicted you'd be wrong on 2 and 8. Have no idea why you think 9. Wise was chubby and horrible as a frosh. Only resemblance is height.

[az91]

This is an interesting tweet from Hansen: "Sobering reality at UA: Zeus, Ashley, Rondae, York haven't improved from last season. Nick Johnson's loss is a gaping hole right now." From what we have seen so far this season, can this be refuted and can we really predict this team is a Final Four team?

[HiCat]

Sobering reality for sure.

But I'm not sure Ashley, and Rondae haven't improved. Granted there's always room for improvement, but for me, it's December. I'm hoping to see a jump in their stats in Jan and Feb. Zeus playing pretty good defense, but not getting the ball enough, so my vote is still out on him as well. Gabe still needs get better on D, but his shooting looks good.

The question (as I see it) is how good will Stanley be in March.

[luteformayor2]

This is an interesting tweet from Hansen: "Sobering reality at UA: Zeus, Ashley, Rondae, York haven't improved from last season. Nick Johnson's loss is a gaping hole right now." From what we have seen so far this season, can this be refuted and can we really predict this team is a Final Four team?

Sobering reality is that Hansen is a shit writer.

On one point though, I agree that York has not improved. And while Kaleb and Ashley may be slightly better, they are not NBA ready. Barring a big conference season, neither of those guys will get legitimate first round looks this July. Maybe that's good for us?

[Olsondogg]

His strategy always works.

[Longhorned]

Lemme take a crack at this riddle wrapped in a mystery and stuffed into an enigma, with a side of rice. Miller is worried that we are easy to guard. To say Rondae is our best offensive player is saying a lot. And it isn't all good. No jumper. No game from the perimeter. Doesn't post up, though he should. His reputation was killer defender.

That's our best offensive player? This scares the coach, because you just have to lay off him. So he wants to diversify the offense by stretching the opposing defense. Enter York, and the wooing of TJ to shoot more. When Rondae plays with the other starters, sans York, the opposing defenses will just sag. Then it's wild-ass drives or missed jumpers from Rondae and Stanley. Rondae needs to handle the ball less, but he doesn't appear to know this. Stanley needs to keep it moving, and he doesn't always do this.

Again, Rondae is our best offensive player. This is debatable, but it's also plausible. But, guess what? He's not a great offensive player. So, coach is working on a solution.

Miller may never get there, and may have to settle for defending his way to greatness. That's what we did last year. That is, refocusing on being a shutdown defense and hoping the points come from turnovers or the other team's breakdowns. If this occurs, Rondae's minutes will increase, because his strength is defense.

So obviously this solution would have to involve defense, in that finding a way to keep York and Ashley out there for their potential to score and open up the floor won't also have to open up the floor on defense as well. Miller's comments sound like effort is the problem. I wonder about the limits of what more effort can address. Once you get to the Sweet 16, you start facing teams that have real scoring threats at the 2 and 4 both, as we saw at UNLV. I'd hope Ashley doesn't stand and watch a lob thrown over his head to his man with the season on the line, but I have to think that he's in the game no matter what. If York is there during crunch time and Rondae or Stanley Johnson is cheering from the bench, then York has become a different defender than he is today. And if he attempts a low-percentage, running mid-range shot over two defenders in the final minute of the game, I might just hurl my body throw the living room window and roll across the lawn into the street and get hit by a tricycle.

[Olsondogg]

Stanley is easily our best offensive weapon. My prediction? Big things from SJ in league play.

[gumby]

Interesting tweet from Hansen. Left off McConnell. It is early, but who is Most Improved at this point? I think it's a fair point that improvement hasn't been noticeable across the board.

I think SJ is our best offensive player, but I don't think he's a great one yet. Then again, neither was Nick Johnson or Solomon Hill or Mark Lyons. Though we've landed some awesome classes, none of these guys has been able to match Derrick Williams, Jordan Hill or some of our other "best offensive players."

It's a trend worth watching. Trier should be that guy from what I've read.

Watched a little of the Beavers-UCSB game last night. One of the Gauchos had the ball about 17 feet straight on. He up-faked, dribbled laterally and shot from behind the elbow off the dribble. He made it, and I thought "what a tough shot." But is it really? Or am i just used to having a roster of guys who can't shoot jumpers off the dribble?

[gumby]

Lemme take a crack at this riddle wrapped in a mystery and stuffed into an enigma, with a side of rice. Miller is worried that we are easy to guard. To say Rondae is our best offensive player is saying a lot. And it isn't all good. No jumper. No game from the perimeter. Doesn't post up, though he should. His reputation was killer defender.

That's our best offensive player? This scares the coach, because you just have to lay off him. So he wants to diversify the offense by stretching the opposing defense. Enter York, and the wooing of TJ to shoot more. When Rondae plays with the other starters, sans York, the opposing defenses will just sag. Then it's wild-ass drives or missed jumpers from Rondae and Stanley. Rondae needs to handle the ball less, but he doesn't appear to know this. Stanley needs to keep it moving, and he doesn't always do this.

Again, Rondae is our best offensive player. This is debatable, but it's also plausible. But, guess what? He's not a great offensive player. So, coach is working on a solution.

Miller may never get there, and may have to settle for defending his way to greatness. That's what we did last year. That is, refocusing on being a shutdown defense and hoping the points come from turnovers or the other team's breakdowns. If this occurs, Rondae's minutes will increase, because his strength is defense.

So obviously this solution would have to involve defense, in that finding a way to keep York and Ashley out there for their potential to score and open up the floor won't also have to open up the floor on defense as well. Miller's comments sound like effort is the problem. I wonder about the limits of what more effort can address. Once you get to the Sweet 16, you start facing teams that have real scoring threats at the 2 and 4 both, as we saw at UNLV. I'd hope Ashley doesn't stand and watch a lob thrown over his head to his man with the season on the line, but I have to think that he's in the game no matter what. If York is there during crunch time and Rondae or Stanley Johnson is cheering from the bench, then York has become a different defender than he is today. And if he attempts a low-percentage, running mid-range shot over two defenders in the final minute of the game, I might just hurl my body throw the living room window and roll across the lawn into the street and get hit by a tricycle.

I don't want to draw too much from one game, especially since I didn't see it (and never will). The UTEP 4 and the UNLV 4 did have success. The 2 guards from K-State and UNLV lit us up. Valid concern. This is why coaches get the big bucks. Balance a need to improve and diversify the offense while making sure the defense is still solid.

The onus is also on Ashley, York and RHJ. Ashley and York need to toughen up defensively. RHJ needs to fit in offensively. He's been scouted. He won't be given clear driving lanes, so now what? Reminds me of Hassan Adams, who eventually developed a jumper. In the meantime, he made his living on the blocks. RHJ may not want to do that for audition purposes, but it's what the team needs. He should be an effective post-up guy. Great quicks. Nice touch around the rim. Relentless rebounder. Draws fouls. So when I see him hanging on the perimeter hoping to recreate that "dunk of the year" from last year, I worry. He just isn't effective out there.

[EOCT]

So interesting RHJ is so timid so far. SJ as well.

Wasn't RHJ timid early last year, and then apparently got a big green light mid-season? Took the light and attracted traffic frequently, but also got into lanes at times very efficiently.

This year we've got an SJ to join RHJ to pull traffic. Double trouble. Gumby, you think we should now expect to see Coach pull reins off both RHJ and SJ in the next few weeks? And see some real havoc with opposing defenses as these two guys get their quick breaks going?

Also pull pressure off shooters TJ, Ashley and York/Pitts?

[gumby]

What reins? I see RHJ forcing the issue on the perimeter. Is SJ harnessed intentionally? Guess I don't see it that way. He's taken the most shots (20 more than Ashley, who is second) overall and the second-most threes.

SJ and RHJ are our best offensive rebounders. They lead the team. They need to get down low more often. Invert with Tarc and Ashley, who aren't as effective down low. RHJ is 4-14 (bad) from distance and 43-73 on twos (excellent). Stop shooting threes. Set up closer. SJ is fine from distance (16-37), but he should be able to manhandle his defender in the lane and on the glass.

And yet, I see them swirling around the perimeter and stopping the ball from moving side to side. They should set screens for both these guys to get them post position. Both can maneuver around double teams better than the Bigs, too.

York is the only player with significant minutes shooting well from the line. He's the only one over 70 percent. That's pathetic. Ashley has hit as many threes as McConnell (7) in 11 fewer attempts. TJ needs to find his confidence, because he has regressed as a shooter.

Pitts is an outstanding 13-25 from distance. PJC is 4-11. York is at 36 percent. TJ is lagging badly (25 percent), and it's hurting the team. Same with free throws. Love his bulldog mentality, defense and floor game, but, damn, the shots need to start falling.

I wish it were as simple as taking the reins off two dudes. I think we're just approaching this wrong. Our stud 6-7 guys should be terrorizing the paint. If they do, the rest could fall into place.

[EOCT]

Invert with Tark and Ashley? Disagree.

Like you, I see Stanly and Rondae as two rare guys with their speed and quickness. Lightening struck when we scored them together for one year.

Use their speed and quickness with a powerful motion offense. An O where our team passes, cuts, screens, runs like madmen. Especially screens, screens, screens; backs, flares, simple pick and rolls. Decisions on the ultra-fly, something I'm guessing Coach is not yet comfortable with----- hence my word "reins".

The advantages of big motion? Foremost, it optimizes player speed and quickness, taking advantage of our two special birds plus TJ. Second, it should break the many zone defenses we'll see this year if for no other reason than it would destroy the D player communication essential to playing effective zone.

I'm concerned your prescription would have strong front line defenses taking advantage of two smaller guys. But more important, I feel rare speed, quickness, ball handling, and strong first/quick steps are meant for dynamic motion offense.

[salim'sheadband]

On this day 4 years ago we lost to a horrible Oregon St. team after getting blown out (again) by BYU and with basically no good wins. I was 100% sure at that point we would not make the tournament, much less beat Duke and come within a shot of knocking off the future champions. Last year a UCONN team that lost its last regular season game to Louisville by 33 won the whole damn thing.

I predict we do well in 2015.

[gumby]

Me, too. Also predict there will be discussions about the journey and changes along the way.

[EOCT]

Me too.

Happy New Year Gumby & all. Hope you and your first are still doing it in the driveway. Now that he's a big guy is he still pickin' you when you try to drive?

[gumby]

Me too.

Happy New Year Gumby & all. Hope you and your first are still doing it in the driveway. Now that he's a big guy is he still pickin' you when you try to drive?

He's bigger than me. I just flop now and call charges. Happy New Year to you, too.

[Longhorned]

If Rondae starts against ASU, then I'm back to Final Four expectations and the same level of hope I had last year until February 21. Because then I'm back to understanding what's going on.