Ristic

[Merkin]

Would have liked to seen the finger pointing during the first 2 games of the 1997 tourney. The AOL board must have been pretty steamed up at 56.6Kb.

and the second half always goes like the first.

But the second half started out pretty much exactly as the first, 13-0, 13-0! But then worse!

No one knows what would have happened with Ristic. All conjecture.

The only thing to look for is to see what Miller does in future situations. If Ristic sits, then it's obvious he is not good enough right now. If Ristic comes in, then Miller realized that maybe just perhaps, he should have put him in,.

[Harvey Specter]

The fallacy that ristic has played just one good half is crazy. Ristic has consistently outperformed tarc on the offensive end and as shown by the analytics earlier in this thread, is a miniscule drop in the defensive side. I don't care how many minutes he plays, but it would be awful if to lose him going forward. It would have been better for miller not to say anything about it after the game. I'm by nature a cynic, so to me my first thought was miller didn't want to completely destroy tarc s confidence by ristic becoming a superstar, so he let Tarc play the most minutes he has played in any half this season. It would not surprise me if ristic felt similar feelings. But as I now know, that can't be the case since you know for a fact due to your relationship with Sean he doesn't "coddle" players.

Well at least you acknowledge your cynicism.

As for the final sentence, I am not sure why you question another poster's ability to read minds, since earlier in the thread you implied that you knew exactly what was going through Dusan's after the game.

[gumby]

Coaches can't be reactionaries. Teams would go crazy. Look how much debate went into starting Rondae to avoid "another fvcking slow start."

So now what? Back to starting York, because that didn't fix it?

(It's Johnson who is the slowest starter, as it turns out).

[gumby]

Would have liked to seen the finger pointing during the first 2 games of the 1997 tourney. The AOL board must have been pretty steamed up at 56.6Kb.

and the second half always goes like the first.

But the second half started out pretty much exactly as the first, 13-0, 13-0! But then worse!

No one knows what would have happened with Ristic. All conjecture.

The only thing to look for is to see what Miller does in future situations. If Ristic sits, then it's obvious he is not good enough right now. If Ristic comes in, then Miller realized that maybe just perhaps, he should have put him in,.

First half, was 7-0.

[Reydituto]

Kaleb Tarczewski: ORtg = 109.3, DRtg = 89.8.
So, in 100 possessions he produces 19.5 more points than he allows.

Dusan Ristic: ORtg = 122.6, DRtg - 90.8.
So, in 100 possesions he produces 31.8 more points than he allows.

Explanations as to why Dusan does not play more than 9.1 mpg seem more than just a little bit Looney.

I can play this game too! Here's another efficiency stat for you.

BPM -- Box Plus/Minus
A box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player, translated to an average team. Further broken down into O = Offensive, D = Defensive.

Code: Select all

                                   
Rk             Player OBPM DBPM BPM
5    Kaleb Tarczewski  1.2  4.3 5.5
12       Dusan Ristic  1.7  0.7 2.4

What this appears to support, is the idea that Tarc is slightly less valuable offensively (I think we all agree on that), but much more valuable defensively (debatable to some, but count me as a yes), and as a result, more valuable on the whole (again, debateable, but I'm OK with how the season has played out on that front).

Then again, there is no one stat, in a vacuum or otherwise absent of further context (such as team role, when the possessions occur, against starters or backups), that definitively proves either player in question should receive more or less PT vis a vis the other.

As such, explanations that rely on one season-long stat on the heels of 1 productive game to argue that Ristic should play an appreciably larger amount on a team that is 24-3 seem to be just a tad Looney.

They leap from ristic to Zeus on offense is huge, the step down on defense is small to my untrained eye. The moral of this story is ristic earned more time in the second half and miller's explanation was unsatisfactory at best. I wouldn't be surprised if something like this leads ristic to consider transfer or going pro at the end of the season. When you lose trust that you are getting a fair shot with your coach you are not loyal to that coach.

Well, you said it yourself, your untrained eye. The step down on team defense when Ristic is in the game compared to when Tarc is in the game is much more significant than what you apparently are able see. Also, the OBPM number above, as well as shooting percentages across the board, suggest that the leap offensively isn't as large as you say it is.

Miller's explanation is only unsatisfactory to those who already have pre-set biases on Tarc. The moral of the story, is that UA won, and we as fans all take out of that what we want to take out of that. The rest of your post slides too far down a very slippery slope to respond.

He did nothing of the sort. Miller is trying to win games, that's it. He's not there to coddle players who think that they aren't getting this or that. Do you think that he sat down with Victor and laid out a plan to get him more minutes, begging him to stay? No.

Look at his answers to questions about how he was using Stanley's minutes earlier in the year, and if/when he starts. "I don't ask him for permission" I believe is what he said.

It's really pretty simple to get minutes in Miller's system. Be good. Be good on both ends of the floor, and then do it consistently.

There is no way he sat down a player and said "Damn, I'm sorry I shoulda played you more cause we only won by double digits and kept the opposition to the lowest point total in the history of the rivalry".

I have no problem with the idea that Ristic might have been frustrated at the lack of 2nd half PT. I'm sure if Ristic went to Miller, Miller would tell him why he didn't pay more minutes. I'd also believe someone informally checked in with Ristic since the game, in line with general player management. But OD is correct, and I truly doubt Miller proactively made a bigger deal out of this or apologized - he certainly didn't in today's presser.

To trained eyes, Tarc plays much better defense. What other reason would he start? In a game where the opposing team was held way below its average, that's consequential. With a team like UCLA, with a lot of high screen action, with the two best scorers being guards, hedging properly is critical. Must be hard, because a lot of players blow it. Tarc is one of the best.

It's not sexy, but it gets a rise out of Miller ... and for good reason. All coaches would love to have a big who defends like Tarc. He's like a star nose guard. Few tackles, but very effective.

Huge contribution by Ristic with those first-half buckets, but this was a game where the entire starting 5 went AWOL offensively. Unusual. Not a good idea to make big changes based on that. But if it supplies Ristic and York with confidence boosts, fantastic.

I completely agree. Big picture, UA held UCLA to 47 points over 40 minutes, with Tarc on the floor for 29 of them. So pointing out he was on the floor for 36 of 47 points misses the forest for the trees.

The fallacy that ristic has played just one good half is crazy. Ristic has consistently outperformed tarc on the offensive end and as shown by the analytics earlier in this thread, is a miniscule drop in the defensive side.

Allow me to clarify.

I never said Ristic has only played 1 good half of basketball for UA.

What I said was, if this was part of his calculus, I don't blame Miller for going with Tarc on the basis of the entirety of the prior 26 games, over Ristic based on one half of basketball against UCLA, which certainly was good. It's an issue of sample size. I can't say that was Miller's thought process, but someone suggested that consideration earlier, the idea that what Tarc had done over the whole season of basketball is more reliable than what Ristic had done in one half of basketball.

I've also shown analytics above that suggest the offensive drop-off from Ristic to Tarc is small but the defensive drop-off from Tarc to Ristic is large (far more than "miniscule").

Again, the rest of your post slides too far down a very slippery slope for me to entertain.

The glory of being a sports fan is the infallibility of hindsight mixed with certainty that dramatic strategic adjustments would certainly pay off. If Miller had inserted Ristic and pressed falling back into a 2-3 zone, UCLA would never have gone on that 17-0 run.

To KF's point, Ristic doesn't lose much by staying at Arizona. Look at Daniel Orton from Kentucky for evidence that you can get drafted playing a smaller role on a team stacked with talent. Or keep it closer to home and remember Grant Jerrett. If he transfers, it's at least 3 years until he leaves. As a junior here, Zeus is gone and the starting job should be Ristic's to lose.

Back to the original point, there's a reason most coaches do not play wildly varying rotations on a game to game basis. While you certainly can adjust somewhat in an individual game, too much of that is a really poor game management strategy.

All of this. Fans can consider and debate and engage all sorts of curiosities, but coaches can rarely employ them. As Gumby suggests above, coaches can't be reactionaries - I would add those who are, don't perform well. Of course Miller adjusts and tweaks his game plan for each opponent, every coach does that, but wanting or expecting Miller to worry more about what an opponent may do (which is partly out of his control) than what his team will do game-to-game (which is much more within his control), is a tad foolish.

Lute Olson "did what he did" much more than some people here would admit too, and that generated positive results with a few disappointments as well.

I'm still not sure what so many people are so angry about, 3 days after the game. It was an ugly win. I'll take it.

UCLA goes on a 13-0 run to start the game.
Miller puts in York and Ristic, and the bleeding stops.

UCLA starts the second half hot and the Cats's starters are unable to score.
Miller puts in York, but leaves Tarc in.
UCLA continues to score, UA is still unable to score, until UCLA goes 17-0.

C'mon Merk, you're better than that. You can't just stop the analysis there. Like Chi said, what happened next? We all know what happened next, I spelled out in my first post what happened next, but I'll put it another way: After that 17-0 run, with Tarc in the game for ~6 of those ~7 minutes (Ristic played 1 minute in the 2nd half and it was during that 17-0 run), UA outscored UCLA 25-12 over the last ~13 minutes, with Tarc on the floor for all of those ~13 minutes, scoring 5 of those 25 points (and all of his points for the game). In other words, despite the varied lineup, the second half ended just as the first half did.

If your Aunt had balls, she'd be your Uncle. I'm guessing that's not the case.

[gumby]

Would have liked to seen the finger pointing during the first 2 games of the 1997 tourney. The AOL board must have been pretty steamed up at 56.6Kb.

I know I melted down. Lute still didn't change the lineup! Then .... Kansas! Entirely predictable!

P.S. Dial up sure was pricey.

[rgdeuce]

So if ristic played more in 2nd and didn't match his first half productivity and Arizona loses are fans happier?

The backup is always the most popular guy on the team among fans.

In this case, at least Ristic can play and presents as a guy who will have a huge impact on this team down the road. I used to lose my s--t with the whole, "Angelo Chol needs more minutes" and "why doesn't Chol play more?" thing on TOS.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Just for what it's worth too, Zeus had 9 boards and shot 2 for 3 from the floor. It's not like he was a disaster, just that Ristic was very effective offensively. The reason we had offensive issues isn't fair to lay on Kaleb either. We had a couple really ugly unforced turnovers by wing players.

We have two talented 7 footers. That is a good thing, not to monday morning QB all the time.

[gumby]

Doesn't sound like a "WTF?" guy to me.

http://tucson.com/sports/basketball/col ... 38396.html

Ristic knew what it would be like after he talked to a fellow Red Star player named Ivan Radenovic, who just happened to spend a productive U.S. college basketball experience at Arizona from 2003-07.

“When I told Ivan that coach Pasternack called and offered me a scholarship, he was surprised and told me a lot of good things about U of A,” Ristic said. “I think he helped me a lot to make the decision to come here. First thing he told me was, ‘The best four years of my life was in Arizona.’”

Radenovic also helped ease Ristic’s transition by connecting him to a local Serbian family in Tucson, which has him over every week or two.

They’ll offer him a taste of Serbian food and some conversation in their native tongue. He’s gotten to know another Serbian family, too.

Between that touch of home and his new UA family, for Ristic, it’s the best of the old life and the new one.

A new one that doesn’t even really seem new anymore.

“My teammates and coaches, they been like really, really helping me every day, so that’s why I feel at home right now,” Ristic said. “For me, it’s weird to say, but I’m here (already) for a long time.”

[Merkin]

I wonder if he was disappointed as much as the ending of Dexter as I was.

Ivan was a 15/8 guy as a senior, so if Ristic can do that I would be pretty pleased.

[rgdeuce]

Hopefully he moved on to Breaking Bad. His head will explode.

[CBCat]

It is doubtful Ristic will ever be more than a 10 minute per game player until he improves significantly on defense.

I think Ristic is going to be a very good player as an upperclassman. He just has such a nice feel around the basket. I'm calling 12 and 8 as a junior.

Not very many true freshmen are good at defense, especially bigs.

He won't be here after next season.

[gumby]

I wonder if he was disappointed as much as the ending of Dexter as I was.

Ivan was a 15/8 guy as a senior, so if Ristic can do that I would be pretty pleased.

Dexter should help his killer instinct.

[Puerco]

It is doubtful Ristic will ever be more than a 10 minute per game player until he improves significantly on defense.

I think Ristic is going to be a very good player as an upperclassman. He just has such a nice feel around the basket. I'm calling 12 and 8 as a junior.

Not very many true freshmen are good at defense, especially bigs.

He won't be here after next season.

[Longhorned]

Looking at the trajectory over the season, do you get the feeling that Ristic will be the player that opposing tourney teams don't have time to prepare for, and that in the tourney when "freshmen are no longer freshman", there will be that one game where Arizona wins because Ristic is that unexpected player off the bench who makes the opponent pay?

[Spaceman Spiff]

Looking at the trajectory over the season, do you get the feeling that Ristic will be the player that opposing tourney teams don't have time to prepare for, and that in the tourney when "freshmen are no longer freshman", there will be that one game where Arizona wins because Ristic is that unexpected player off the bench who makes the opponent pay?

Very possibly. I would add in that if York or Pitts hits a hot streak from long range, that would be just as, if not more, devastating for a tourney opponent. With Ristic, I could see him repeating his UCLA offensive production at least one tourney game. Usually, teams can relax and attack when starters sit. Ristic is at the point where he can generate a run for us when the other team thinks it's their time to make one.

[dan]

raw +/- has been dismissed as an irrelevant statistic for a while now. Drtg can be interesting, but as individual stats, they don't tell you much. The NBA is just starting to figure out how to measure individual defensive contributions using SportVu - which means we're a long way off in CBB.

If you're relying on it to claim Miller is mistaken in his defensive "eye test"..

Agree Ristic is going to be really good - a pro and an all p-12 player. Tarc is going to have a hard time because while he is a good defensive anchor, he's not ever going to be a rim protecting specialist in the NBA

[azpenguin]

Ristic's ability to create shots close to the basket without having to get into heavy traffic is becoming a big problem for opponents. He's starting to remind me a bit of Kaminsky. I really really like the upside on this guy.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Ristic's ability to create shots close to the basket without having to get into heavy traffic is becoming a big problem for opponents. He's starting to remind me a bit of Kaminsky. I really really like the upside on this guy.

Ristic has soft hands both in terms of catching and finishing. It's a natural thing, not an acquired skill. He can catch a tough pass high and put up a soft shot in one motion. The ability to do that is particularly glaring because Zeus doesn't have it.

Ristic reminds me of a larger, less perimeter oriented Kyle Wiltjer.

[rgdeuce]

He reminds me a lot of Zydrunas Ilgauskus, minus the deadly midrange shot (which still may come).

[Merkin]

Ristic reminds me of a larger, less perimeter oriented Kyle Wiltjer.

Dusan is an 80% 3 point shooter! (4 for 5)

[Longhorned]

Ristic reminds me of a larger, less perimeter oriented Kyle Wiltjer.

Dusan is an 80% 3 point shooter! (4 for 5)

They should run plays for him on the perimeter.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Ristic reminds me of a larger, less perimeter oriented Kyle Wiltjer.

Dusan is an 80% 3 point shooter! (4 for 5)

Actually, I wouldn't be mad if he pulled a 3 now and again. He has a solid touch, and the opposition doesn't guard him out there.

80%, though. Who says we don't have a Salim on this roster.

[Puerco]

Kaminsky Junior?

[Jefe]

Finally got to see him and Zeus on the floor together. We were massive for a couple mins there. PJC running circles around defenders too. Loved it

[Chicat]

Finally got to see him and Zeus on the floor together. We were massive for a couple mins there. PJC running circles around defenders too. Loved it

Noticed that too. What I couldn't tell though was who they were guarding. Didn't seem to suffer any glaring lapses though, so I think when matchups work out this could be an effective lineup in spurts for us.

[psiclist23]

If Miller is insisting on Playing Zeus and we are saying BA can't defend, why not put Ristic in for BA once in a while. He has some outside game. And the defense apparently would not lose much. Who is better offensively, BA or Ristic?

But what do I know.

Miller must have seen my post?

[Merkin]

I really doubt we will see Zeus and Ristic on the floor together vs. Utah unless RHJ and BAsh get in some serious foul trouble.

[Longhorned]

Ristic with Tarc was a total sign of disrespect for Colorado's front court offense. That won't happen against Utah.

[az91]

It is doubtful Ristic will ever be more than a 10 minute per game player until he improves significantly on defense.

I think Ristic is going to be a very good player as an upperclassman. He just has such a nice feel around the basket. I'm calling 12 and 8 as a junior.

Not very many true freshmen are good at defense, especially bigs.

He won't be here after next season.

Where is Ristic going? To play in Europe?

[CBCat]

I think he develops with Rounds and Miller one more year then goes pro. jmo.
Maybe he stays thru Junior season. I guess it's going to depend on how many minutes he gets/earns at the 5 next year.

[az91]

I think he develops with Rounds and Miller one more year then goes pro. jmo.
Maybe he stays thru Junior season. I guess it's going to depend on how many minutes he gets/earns at the 5 next year.

Based on the limited amount of minutes Ristic has received so far this year, I guess he will be staying through his junior season if not his senior season. Is he too much of a defensive liability for Miller to trust in a close game or for extended minutes?

[Spaceman Spiff]

I think he develops with Rounds and Miller one more year then goes pro. jmo.
Maybe he stays thru Junior season. I guess it's going to depend on how many minutes he gets/earns at the 5 next year.

Based on the limited amount of minutes Ristic has received so far this year, I guess he will be staying through his junior season if not his senior season. Is he too much of a defensive liability for Miller to trust in a close game or for extended minutes?

Zeus is playing well and they can't play together because they're both true 5's.

[Lute4God]

Does Miller need to relax his system and put Ristic (and Trier) in tonight to spark our offense? We need someone with confidence on offense. Seems like this team picks up when the ball is getting scored.

[gumby]

Killing me with the free throws. Another thing Tarc does better.

[Zero]

Really makes you appreciate Tarc.

[eoe]

Killing me with the free throws. Another thing Tarc does better.

He will always be pretty poor at FTs. His shot looks so deliberate and tee'd up.
51% LY
56% TY (thus far)

[eoe]

Really makes you appreciate Tarc.

I miss his defense. Comanche was repeatedly killed by average post players

[gumby]

Killing me with the free throws. Another thing Tarc does better.

He will always be pretty poor at FTs. His shot looks so deliberate and tee'd up.
51% LY
56% TY (thus far)

Looks like he perches ball on fingertips.

[eoe]

Killing me with the free throws. Another thing Tarc does better.

He will always be pretty poor at FTs. His shot looks so deliberate and tee'd up.
51% LY
56% TY (thus far)

Looks like he perches ball on fingertips.

Exactly!
You said it better than I could

[rgdeuce]

Its got to be mental with the kid. He has a soft touch and good form.

Hes got beautiful moves on the low block and it seems like he does it all without any feel for how he is being defended, which makes it even crazier. There were two occasions where he was on the low block to the right of the basket and the defender was playing him to the right. All he needed to do was drop step with his left and go up quick w his right hand, or do the same and put his ass into the defender and go up strong. Both times he acted like he was lefthanded and went toward the middle of the paint. Hed also get two more buckets a game at least if he learned to just go straight up. He hesitates and pump fakes and waits, pump fakes again like he is 6'6 and has a 7 footer on him. im guessing it is partially due to his lack of spring but hes got position and 3-4 inches on these guys and he still does this. Once he starts putting it all together look out

[az91]

Its got to be mental with the kid. He has a soft touch and good form.

Hes got beautiful moves on the low block and it seems like he does it all without any feel for how he is being defended, which makes it even crazier. There were two occasions where he was on the low block to the right of the basket and the defender was playing him to the right. All he needed to do was drop step with his left and go up quick w his right hand, or do the same and put his ass into the defender and go up strong. Both times he acted like he was lefthanded and went toward the middle of the paint. Hed also get two more buckets a game at least if he learned to just go straight up. He hesitates and pump fakes and waits, pump fakes again like he is 6'6 and has a 7 footer on him. im guessing it is partially due to his lack of spring but hes got position and 3-4 inches on these guys and he still does this. Once he starts putting it all together look out

The question is whether he will ever be able to put it all together.

[HiCat]

Got to hit some FT's bud.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Really makes you appreciate Tarc.

I miss his defense. Comanche was repeatedly killed by average post players

Comanche is young and skinny. He can go a long way, but he has a long way to go. Ristic will probably never be elite because he has average lateral quickness. Zeus is by far our best, but the silver lining is that Comanche and Ristic are going to be forced into time and hopefully improve to be better options in the late season.

[rgdeuce]

The question is whether he will ever be able to put it all together.

I think he does, but we wont start seeing it until sometime next season after hes been starting for a while. He shows signs of it possibly being a mental thing (free throws, being out of position on defense), but I think a lot of it is him just being overwhelmed by the speed and size of the college game and the difference in the European game and how its played here. Think he gets a little imtimidated and doesnt trust his size and skill.

[carolinacat]

The trouble with developing a big guy like Ristic is Arizona doesn't have the luxury to wait for a player to show results during games. You have to remind yourself of that. So many times you see upper classmen from other programs that are very skilled and quality players. I think, "man, if Arizona just had a decent big guy like that, we'd be incredible." But that's because that player sucked for 2-3 seasons on a bad team and eventually got better with more experience. At Arizona, there's no time to let a big man go through baptism by fire for 25-30 minutes a game while taking your lumps and losses. That's the price you pay with a program that is never "down."

Risitc and Commanche both have a bright future ahead. But the learning curve is steeper at Arizona if you want to see the floor for quality minutes.

[Merkin]

Sean Rooks, redshirted his first year as a Gumby and that led to a very long NBA career.

[rgdeuce]

Nothing replaces game experience, but you cant underrate going up against Zeus in practice for almost two years. Its very hard to find another Zeus at this age and level, body and skill wise, plus experience. Thats an edge we and some other top schools have against everyone else. Ristic is certainly getting thrown in the fire right now, he had spurts of good minutes last year and played and produced in some big games.

[Jefe]

[gumby]

"You aren't Big Bird, and this isn't 'Sesame Street!'"