Bear Down Wildcats

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 3:21 pm

ChooChooCat wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:48 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 2:13 pm

ChooChooCat wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 1:48 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Fri May 06, 2022 1:46 pm I have to disagree bit. I don't see Terry going top 15 regardless of improvement. I do think he has a strong chance to get to the first round with a return.

Some of how attractive Terry is depends on what sort of contract he wants. You can offer 4 years to a second rounder. If Terry would be interested in 4 years with 2 guaranteed and a team option for the last 2...I could see him being very attractive.

First round doesn't give you more control because second doesn't have length limits. If the Bulls are in a tough place with Dosunmu, it's because he bet on himself or the Bulls effed up.

What 15 guys would you have above him? He’s a top 15 pick next year Spiff. I don’t even think it’s debatable.

Lead in, I know this is an unpopular take on this board that a lot of people disagree with. I'm also open to friendly bets on this issue, so I'll fully do a signature bet to put my "money" where my mouth is.

I think Terry is a low ceiling, high floor NBA prospect who will never get out of the 20's. One thing people disagree with me here is I see him as an average athlete for the NBA, and given the plethora of wings, his athletic limits keep him out of the lottery.

https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2023-nba-mock-draft/

Not that draftroom is the best, but every player in their top 14 is a one and done. That is very much the profile of the guys who will go ahead of Terry, elite athletes with physical tools he doesn't have.

You want future stars in the lottery, not 7th or 8th men.

Ending where I began, I know this opinion is unpopular, but it's mine and not a slam on Terry.

I’ll take the bet. Also notice that link you sent didn’t show him being included in that 2023 draft. Me thinks if he officially returns they’ll show him in the lottery as well.

They have him #39 in 2022.

I'm down with a bet...although we may have to wait a bit on the 2023 draft. Assuming we both exist when he does/does not go top 15 in 2023, signature control for a year sound appropriate?

Sounds good to me brother.

Great posts btw YDF.

Spiff I already caveated the weakness of my argument - basically means you’re not allowed to bring it up.

Seriously though - that’s right. Dalen hasn’t shown the shot creation.

But two things: 1) he’s better than Duarte in a lot of regards - like length, size, and vision - things Duarte won’t improve on, and 2) we’re taking about possible.

It would take a big step from Dalen - but Dalen has a big opportunity here. He could take 11 attempts a game and put up 15 / 6 / 5 with DPOY defense.

Talking about possible. With what he showed the last half of the season, shooting over 42% from three, I’m not going to call it out of the question.

I want to win games.

EastCoastCat wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 4:26 am I want to win games.

I want you to win games, but your knees and your eligibility are shot so let’s leave that up to our man Dalen Terry.

Chicat wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 5:34 am

EastCoastCat wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 4:26 am I want to win games.

I want you to win games, but your knees and your eligibility are shot so let’s leave that up to our man Dalen Terry.

I can still hit a jumper or two but point taken. I'm feeling awfully smarmy this morning I guess...

Back to Dalen, I think he comes back. He will have an opportunity to raise his stock even higher as a shooter/scorer plus he will be one of the lead faces of the team as well. The opening remarks on Arizona for every game will include "...led by the all-around play of Dalen Terry." Last year those remarks always started with Benn and CK. I might be wrong but he seems like a guy that loves being in the spotlight and it will certainly be on him next year.

And he thrived in CTL's system last year and that should continue next year with possible All-American aspirations. At least 2nd Team.

Terry, if he puts in another 15 pounds of muscle, is in the mold of Draymond Green or Jae Crowder. Won't lead a team in any statistical category, but puts up numbers in all categories while playing great D. Glue guys like these aren't usually lottery picks, but could be a difference maker on a team that just made the playoffs.

It's possible DT could work his way into late lottery, but teams in the lottery usually are looking for stars, not glue guys. Throw in DT will be a junior if he comes back, and that's a factor too. DT would really need a monster year to work his way into the lottery.

With that said, I think he should return. Right now, he is likely looking at mid to late 2nd round. Come back and have a decent year, and he would be a guaranteed first rounder.

Selfishly, I wish he'd return. But, he seems to have a perfect mix of skills and athletic ability for the NBA. I realize all the differential lifetime earnings issues, guaranteed salary stuff, etc. So, yeah, he could come back and maybe up what he makes annually by $10M+, or whatever the right number is. It's debatable if that's realistic, but it's staggering money to consider. Observers also need to consider that, from the perspective of someone his age, he'd be back sitting in classrooms under the thumbs of instructors, tip-toeing around to avoid being entrapped by trouble, hoping he doesn't get hurt, wanting to showcase his individual skills more, making a few negligible tens of $Ks in NIL money, and playing the NAUs more often than the UCLAs. Certainly also having fun with his friends, enjoying a great college environment, and playing on a pretty good team. I love watching DT play; he's probably my favorite player on the team. But, I also understand if the lure of (still) multiple millions as a second-rounder is too great a temptation.

AzCatFan2 wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 8:37 am Terry, if he puts in another 15 pounds of muscle, is in the mold of Draymond Green or Jae Crowder. Won't lead a team in any statistical category, but puts up numbers in all categories while playing great D. Glue guys like these aren't usually lottery picks, but could be a difference maker on a team that just made the playoffs.

It's possible DT could work his way into late lottery, but teams in the lottery usually are looking for stars, not glue guys. Throw in DT will be a junior if he comes back, and that's a factor too. DT would really need a monster year to work his way into the lottery.

With that said, I think he should return. Right now, he is likely looking at mid to late 2nd round. Come back and have a decent year, and he would be a guaranteed first rounder.

Feels like there's only three to five guys a draft that have clear All Star potential and then its various bets / team needs thereafter. Golden State took Kuminga with the 7th and Moses Moody with the 14th and I don't think they expect either of those guys to be more than productive starter before the end of their rookie contract.

Looking back on prior drafts, my initial hunch proves out: there's three to five players in most drafts who make an All Star game. That leaves a dozen or more lotto picks who aren't All Stars. I'm sure teams are aware when they're drafting Denzel Valentine with the 14th or Luke Kennard with the 12th or Jerome Robinson with the 13th that these are guys who can lift the floor of your team but aren't likely to burst through to the All Star level. And that's okay. That's the math.

So yeah, I disagree that every team selecting in the lottery is swinging for the fences on every pick. I think DT can find his way into the back half of the lottery to a team that is looking for a solid, switchable, do-it-all rotation player without much more than taking 11 FGAs next season at the same efficiency he had this year (again, that'd be 15 / 6 / 5 on 50 / 36 / 75 shooting with Conf DPOY defense). Improve on that efficiency and he could genuinely go in the single digits.

Yeah every team selecting in the lottery aren’t expecting to get All Stars. They’re expecting to get eventual starters. Doesn’t always work out that way, but there aren’t 14 guys every year that turn out to be All Stars that’s for damn sure.

Anyone know offhand the deadline for DT’s decision? Think it’s this month.

The article is now 3 years old, so data has changed. But in the last 30 years, every lottery draft position has produced at least 2 all stars except two. Positions 8 and 12 have only produced one each. https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-ar ... 113d6b82e5

The article also states lottery picks have a 25.7% of making an all star team, whereas non-lottery first round picks, only 7.8%.

DT can be a very valuable piece for any NBA team. But I don't see him ever putting up all star numbers. Benn has that ability, which is why he's a lottery pick. DT is again, more in the mold of Green and Crowder, both of whom were 2nd round picks. But because teams now see the value in these type of glue guys, it opens the first round for someone like DT.

Beachcat97 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 9:56 am Anyone know offhand the deadline for DT’s decision? Think it’s this month.

Looks like June 1st

AzCatFan2 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 10:39 am The article is now 3 years old, so data has changed. But in the last 30 years, every lottery draft position has produced at least 2 all stars except two. Positions 8 and 12 have only produced one each. https://medium.com/@burakcankoc/what-ar ... 113d6b82e5

The article also states lottery picks have a 25.7% of making an all star team, whereas non-lottery first round picks, only 7.8%.

DT can be a very valuable piece for any NBA team. But I don't see him ever putting up all star numbers. Benn has that ability, which is why he's a lottery pick. DT is again, more in the mold of Green and Crowder, both of whom were 2nd round picks. But because teams now see the value in these type of glue guys, it opens the first round for someone like DT.

Find me a single mock draft with DT in the first round. Still looking.

Even if he goes undrafted, and signs a 2 way G league contract, he will make $449,155.

Merkin wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:34 pm Even if he goes undrafted, and signs a 2 way G league contract, he will make $449,155.

I would think he could make a similar amount of money, if not more, through NIL deals.

Beachcat97 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:41 pm

Merkin wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:34 pm Even if he goes undrafted, and signs a 2 way G league contract, he will make $449,155.

I would think he could make a similar amount of money, if not more, through NIL deals.

Lloyd should definitely be working the phone with the big donors. Is Jim Click still a big donor?

I know the administration did piss off some other big donors due to the mishandling of the Miller firing.

Illinois put together a NIL deal supposedly worth 1m and KC still left.

If Terry thinks it’s time(even at 50/50 he gets drafted) I doubt there is much we could do to sway him.

College sports offseason really sucks

I thought even though Terry put his name in the draft, many said he was coming back .

Irish27 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 5:33 pm I thought even though Terry put his name in the draft, many said he was coming back .

It’s been trending in the other the direction the last couple weeks. But who knows.

Beachcat97 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:22 am

Irish27 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 5:33 pm I thought even though Terry put his name in the draft, many said he was coming back .

It’s been trending in the other the direction the last couple weeks. But who knows.

It hasn't been trending in any direction yet.

ChooChooCat wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:30 am

Beachcat97 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:22 am

Irish27 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 5:33 pm I thought even though Terry put his name in the draft, many said he was coming back .

It’s been trending in the other the direction the last couple weeks. But who knows.

It hasn't been trending in any direction yet.

From what I know, the plan hasn’t changed since the end of the season.

We should be careful not to assign motivations of the individual player or predicted outcomes based on how much draft analysts like a kid or how we may be feeling about our luck as fans.

Terry, if he stays in the draft, is looking at mid 2nd round right now. If Terry comes back, he could potentially work his way into a mid to late first round choice. Some say even lottery next year, but I think his draft ceiling is likely just outside the lottery.

The question for Terry is can he get a good enough 2nd round contract that would allow him time to develop he needs to play at the next level? Unlike Benn, Terry just isn't ready yet for the NBA grind; and the difference is physique. DT needs another 15 lbs of muscle in my opinion. Terry will be able to add muscle in Tucson or wherever he lands in the NBA. The difference is if he comes back and is NBA ready next year, and gets drafted in the first round, a team will have a 3-year vested interest in Terry. The 2nd round contract? Depends on where he lands in the 2nd round.

Chicat wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:43 am

ChooChooCat wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:30 am

Beachcat97 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 7:22 am

Irish27 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 5:33 pm I thought even though Terry put his name in the draft, many said he was coming back .

It’s been trending in the other the direction the last couple weeks. But who knows.

It hasn't been trending in any direction yet.

From what I know, the plan hasn’t changed since the end of the season.

We should be careful not to assign motivations of the individual player or predicted outcomes based on how much draft analysts like a kid or how we may be feeling about our luck as fans.

Exactly. He's barely started the process. If he hears what he wants to hear from NBA guys then sure panic all you want, but we're not even remotely close to that point yet.

YoDeFoe wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 12:40 am Spiff I already caveated the weakness of my argument - basically means you’re not allowed to bring it up.

Seriously though - that’s right. Dalen hasn’t shown the shot creation.

But two things: 1) he’s better than Duarte in a lot of regards - like length, size, and vision - things Duarte won’t improve on, and 2) we’re taking about possible.

It would take a big step from Dalen - but Dalen has a big opportunity here. He could take 11 attempts a game and put up 15 / 6 / 5 with DPOY defense.

Talking about possible. With what he showed the last half of the season, shooting over 42% from three, I’m not going to call it out of the question.

Well, I'm no Rick Astley because apparently you know the rules, but I don't.

Admittedly, we're both sort of arguing in the theoretical, because he was not at all relied upon to be a shot creator. One of the more striking things for me is Dalen's usage % was 13th highest on the team. Grant Weitman was the only one lower, meaning Dalen saw the ball significantly less than any other rotation player.

I look at that and think Lloyd either whiffed on his eval of Terry, or much more likely, he doesn't see high level creation in DT's game. Pelle, Kier and Ballo all had noticeably higher usage rates than DT.

But again, we're evaluating a pretty blank slate because Terry's never been anything but a 4th or 5th option while on the floor so far.

Beachcat97 wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:41 pm

Merkin wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 2:34 pm Even if he goes undrafted, and signs a 2 way G league contract, he will make $449,155.

I would think he could make a similar amount of money, if not more, through NIL deals.

He got paid mid 3 figures for that autograph session at Fini's Landing 2 weeks ago. Plus a burger and fries

Well, maybe until the decision is made, I’m never gonna give, never gonna give, never gonna give him up.

if im not back in five minutes, just wait longer

If the phone doesn’t ring it’s me…

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:18 am

YoDeFoe wrote: Sat May 07, 2022 12:40 am Spiff I already caveated the weakness of my argument - basically means you’re not allowed to bring it up.

Seriously though - that’s right. Dalen hasn’t shown the shot creation.

But two things: 1) he’s better than Duarte in a lot of regards - like length, size, and vision - things Duarte won’t improve on, and 2) we’re taking about possible.

It would take a big step from Dalen - but Dalen has a big opportunity here. He could take 11 attempts a game and put up 15 / 6 / 5 with DPOY defense.

Talking about possible. With what he showed the last half of the season, shooting over 42% from three, I’m not going to call it out of the question.

Well, I'm no Rick Astley because apparently you know the rules, but I don't.

Admittedly, we're both sort of arguing in the theoretical, because he was not at all relied upon to be a shot creator. One of the more striking things for me is Dalen's usage % was 13th highest on the team. Grant Weitman was the only one lower, meaning Dalen saw the ball significantly less than any other rotation player.

I look at that and think Lloyd either whiffed on his eval of Terry, or much more likely, he doesn't see high level creation in DT's game. Pelle, Kier and Ballo all had noticeably higher usage rates than DT.

But again, we're evaluating a pretty blank slate because Terry's never been anything but a 4th or 5th option while on the floor so far.

Sorry, I had to do it.

Got a combine invite

RondaeShimmy wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:17 pm Got a combine invite

For people who want answers, this is where they'll come from.

Prediction: Koloko wow everyone at the combine with his athleticism. Still goes 2nd round.

That’s not a shot at Koloko, just how the league is. And still good for Christian as Spiff pointed out..it’s around the same money as getting picked 20th or so.



Edited: changed woes to wows.

IndianaZonaFan wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 5:45 am Prediction: Koloko woes everyone at the combine with his athleticism. Still goes 2nd round.

That’s not a shot at Koloko, just how the league is. And still good for Christian as Spiff pointed out..it’s around the same money as getting picked 20th or so.

The thing with Koloko, if you draft him, you'll commit to 2-3 years of a guranteed deal. No one in the market for Koloko thinks he's a finished product. Anyone interested is interested based on his upside after 2 years of cleaning up footwork and developing his body.

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 8:17 am

IndianaZonaFan wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 5:45 am Prediction: Koloko woes everyone at the combine with his athleticism. Still goes 2nd round.

That’s not a shot at Koloko, just how the league is. And still good for Christian as Spiff pointed out..it’s around the same money as getting picked 20th or so.

The thing with Koloko, if you draft him, you'll commit to 2-3 years of a guranteed deal. No one in the market for Koloko thinks he's a finished product. Anyone interested is interested based on his upside after 2 years of cleaning up footwork and developing his body.

My context got messed up from autocorrect. I meant he will “wow” everyone.

IndianaZonaFan wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 8:49 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 8:17 am

IndianaZonaFan wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 5:45 am Prediction: Koloko woes everyone at the combine with his athleticism. Still goes 2nd round.

That’s not a shot at Koloko, just how the league is. And still good for Christian as Spiff pointed out..it’s around the same money as getting picked 20th or so.

The thing with Koloko, if you draft him, you'll commit to 2-3 years of a guranteed deal. No one in the market for Koloko thinks he's a finished product. Anyone interested is interested based on his upside after 2 years of cleaning up footwork and developing his body.

My context got messed up from autocorrect. I meant he will “wow” everyone.

I got where you were going and I agree. Koloko will have good to great measurables and that's why he just needs to find the team in the 20-40 range ready to invest in his upside.

I'm sure he'll find one.

To Spiff's point, it really will come down to a team with a need for his role and the patience to develop. Whether he's the 25th or the 35th will depend more on draft order than Koloko's stock.

YoDeFoe wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 2:10 pm To Spiff's point, it really will come down to a team with a need for his role and the patience to develop. Whether he's the 25th or the 35th will depend more on draft order than Koloko's stock.

Yup.

I think I've posted before, but once Mark Williams is off the board, Koloko is the only rim protecting C left. Williams probably goes top 15, so Koloko's pick # is just who wants a rim protector outside the top 15.

Teams looking to draft Koloko will want a rim protector. Koloko's skills here are already at a high level. Anyone who drafts Koloko has the knowledge the rest of Koloko's game still needs work. Still, a 7' rim protecting guy with room to grow his game has value.

DT is different. He hasn't proved to be a specialist in any area yet, but is more of a glue guy. If DT can shoot well at the combine, then his value will go up as a glue guy who can consistently knock down the outside shot. DT can also do the same if the combine doesn't go well, but shoots over 38% for the season next year. DT can also position himself as a true defensive stopper too.

Koloko's draft status is currently maximized. Next year, he would still be a great rim protector with potential upside, but also be a year older. DT can still significantly improve his draft stock as of today. Either with a great combine showing, or a solid year next year.

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 4:38 pm DT is different. He hasn't proved to be a specialist in any area yet, but is more of a glue guy. If DT can shoot well at the combine, then his value will go up as a glue guy who can consistently knock down the outside shot. DT can also do the same if the combine doesn't go well, but shoots over 38% for the season next year. DT can also position himself as a true defensive stopper too.

DT projects as a 3 and D guy. The 3 portion of that is currently what's in doubt.

I think you're correct that the combine or next year...that's Dalen's question.

Terry is an absurdly good playmaker for his position - he was 3rd in the Pac-12 in total assists. There's no reason to forget his passing ability when talking about what an NBA team sees from him at the next level.

He needs to hit more shots. No question. Won't make a roster taking 6 attempts a game for the Wildcats next season. But if he doubles those attempts to 12 and keeps his efficiency... the ceiling comps for him are Mikal Bridges / Nic Batum. That's a guy that makes a team so dang dangerous with their versatility on both ends of the court. Because it's not just 3 & D its the additional playmaking from the wing to keep the offense flowing and unpredictable.

He needs to take the same kind of production leap that Bridges took in his soph to junior season at Nov:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... rry-1.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... ges-1.html

(Caveat being: Bridges had already made the leap to "great outside shooter" in his soph season)

My deep hope is that of Benn's 13 attempts a game, Dalen bumps his from 6 to 11 and Pelle bumps his from 5 to 10. I deeply believe that those two guys can be incredibly dangerous scorers if they're asked to be given their size, length, and passing abilities (Pelle stop turning it over and just shoot it challenge).

YoDeFoe wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 10:30 am Terry is an absurdly good playmaker for his position - he was 3rd in the Pac-12 in total assists. There's no reason to forget his passing ability when talking about what an NBA team sees from him at the next level.

I agree with you on so many things, but this hits on one thing where I caveat hard.

For me, the question isn't whether he's a good passer. He is. The question is whether his individual playmaking is good enough to open opportunities for that passing to shine.

I think he may be able to do it in college, even if he has yet to show it. If I'm an NBA scout, I'm far less optimistic he can do it on that next level.

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 10:35 am

YoDeFoe wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 10:30 am Terry is an absurdly good playmaker for his position - he was 3rd in the Pac-12 in total assists. There's no reason to forget his passing ability when talking about what an NBA team sees from him at the next level.

I agree with you on so many things, but this hits on one thing where I caveat hard.

For me, the question isn't whether he's a good passer. He is. The question is whether his individual playmaking is good enough to open opportunities for that passing to shine.

I think he may be able to do it in college, even if he has yet to show it. If I'm an NBA scout, I'm far less optimistic he can do it on that next level.

Totally agree - if he can't punish teams at the NCAA level with his scoring then he's not going to make an NBA roster.

This is the biggest reason I think he needs to return and would benefit more from returning, because he needs the opportunities / green light / support to take and make shots and he's not going to get that outside of Arizona.

If DT returns to Tucson, he'll be in the mix for Pac POY. His overall value to AZ next season could be greater than any other guy in the league.

KK
PL
DT
AT
OB

That's the lineup I'm looking for. If we can get to about 8 deep with our bench, we should be right in the mix for another Pac title.

This mock draft has Terry going at 39. It has Koloko going at 31.
https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2022-2nd-round/

Irish27 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 12:57 pm This mock draft has Terry going at 39. It has Koloko going at 31.
https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2022-2nd-round/

If DT is comfortable leaving without a first-round guarantee, he's probably gone. Think it's very likely he'd be taken in the 2nd round somewhere.

Irish27 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 12:57 pm This mock draft has Terry going at 39. It has Koloko going at 31.
https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2022-2nd-round/

The sentence at the end of their eval "lacking a 3 point shot" is everything for Dalen right now. That shot dictates how high he goes, and is the reason why if he returned as a better shooter, he could jump into the first next year.

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:24 pm

Irish27 wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 12:57 pm This mock draft has Terry going at 39. It has Koloko going at 31.
https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2022-2nd-round/

The sentence at the end of their eval "lacking a 3 point shot" is everything for Dalen right now. That shot dictates how high he goes, and is the reason why if he returned as a better shooter, he could jump into the first next year.

Makes perfect sense. DT should play another year... and improve his 3 point shooting (and defense). Good things will happen if he does.

Will he improve his percentage with double the shots? He was not good till the second half of the year and if the attention he gets is from a #3-4 scorer to a #1 option the defense will be more attentive. Hard choice but if someone guarantees and pick in the 30's he should go.

"Lacking a 3 point shot" is a lazy description of a guy who shot 36% from 3 and over 40% in the second half of the season. That's a 2021 take.

Lacking shot creation (to Spiff's prior point). Hasn't shown he can be a go-to scorer (to TheCat's point). Needs to prove it at a higher volume (to my prior point).

Those are reasonable takes. Also, this is a terrible draft board - they're probably off by about 40 spots on Braun and Baldwin Jr. collectively.