Re: Conference Realignment
Posted: Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:53 am
You agreed with exactly what I said last week
So what changed?
So what changed?
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Which part of the following did I agree with last week?PHXCATS wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:53 am You agreed with exactly what I said last week
So what changed?
This assertation ONLY washes IF no further expansion occurs within the PAC. Expansion is something that GK has already gone on record stating would occur, so recalculate school payout. Once those expansion schools are added to the conference contract waters down to 28 to 30 million per school (at best). This is LESS than the XII schools.AzCatFan2 wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:22 am The BIG 12 TV contract is worth $31.8 million per school. By all media leaks, the PAC will land somewhere between $34 and $36 million per school. There is an elevator clause in the BIG 12, and if Oregon and UW goes, it would likely be enacted. But even if that's an additional $5 million per school, that's only $2 to $3 million more for UO and UW. Does this even cover the additional travel costs for these schools? Remember, it's not just football, but all sports that would have to travel more. If the B1G offer UW and OU $40 million more a year, travel costs are moot. But $3 million more a year, travel costs are pertinent.
See my response above...As you say, more money is more money. PAC is NOT going to get more than XII.By staying in the PAC this round, we will make more money. It's unlikely we'd enact the elevator clause by going to the BIG 12, and I'd rather make a few million more a year by staying in the PAC through this round of contract negotiations.
Bullshit. You have already cornered yourself on this one.And it's not just for personal reasons. More money is more money.
Unless you have taken a census of every alum that has ever stepped on campus, you have no clue what the hell you are talking about. I live in Texas and I run into Arizona alum EVERYTIME I step out and go somewhere. Especially when I am in school garb. As for where students are coming from, you really seem to have a very myopic view on how far the universities reach is when it comes to acceptance/admittance. You seriously need to get out and explore areas other than the west coast.We also have more alumni and get more students from other PAC areas versus BIG 12 areas, which leads to more alumni donations and more out of state student enrollments. Which also means more money for the school overall.
Simple answer to this is yes. Arizona will get prime TV spots just because of their opponents. If Arizona continues on it's upward improvement trend then they definitely will command prime TV spots whichever conference they are in. I tend to think that they would garner more looks in the XII just because of the level of competition. XII football is far more competitive than PAC football. There is much more parody up and down the XII than there is in the PAC. Every game is a fight. You don't and won't ever get that in the PAC.As far as TV eyeballs, Arizona football is a Tier 3 property most weeks. Does anyone honestly think an Arizona football game is getting prime TV spots on ESPN competing against the SEC, ACC, and other BIG 12 schools? How about FOX, with the B1G and BIG 12? And let's remember, these large networks also have pro sports contracts, so they are obligated to show things like MLB playoff games which happen during football season. Tier 3 BIG 12 will be no better than what we have today, which is Tier 3 PAC, which is the PAC-12 Network. At least with Amazon, most households will have PAC-12 Network access. And hopefully Amazon adds to their DirecTv agreement and puts PAC sports on the same feed as TNF, which means PAC-12 Network games in sports bars.
Arizona is a a basketball school plain and simple. If they are playing someone of significance in the world of college basketball they are going to get air time regardless of the conference or contractual obligation. Your thought process on basketball is simply just flawed.As for men's basketball, once UCLA is gone, we will be the PAC flagbearers along with Oregon. Put is in the BIG 12, yes, there are more big match-ups. But that means more BIG 12 games ESPN can choose from for their Tier 1 games on ABC and on the family of networks. Stay in the PAC, and ESPN will be contractually obligated to show a number of PAC men's basketball games on ABC, ESPN, and ESPN 2. Once UCLA is gone, who draws more TV eyeballs during basketball season in the PAC than Arizona?
Not going here anymore as you know damn good and well that Amazon limits exposure for the athletic programs. Maybe in 10 or 12 years when Amazon has built their sports viewership, but not now. Arizona deserves better than a friggin startup sports broadcaster. Too much risk and not enough reward to even warrant a sniff and GK is a moron for even looking in their direction.A short term contract with ESPN holding T1 rights, and a streaming service like Amazon with the rest that makes more money than the BIG 12 TV contract is in our best interest right now. We make more money, stay with schools that are a better geo fit for our alumni and students, and don't lose much, if any brand equity from tv appearances. In fact, gambling with Amazon, we might actually gain some? Only time will tell.
YesAzCatFan2 wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:47 am As for being battle tested in basketball, does it hurt Gonzaga to be in the WCC?
Yes.Are they complaining their conference competition is subpar?
“UCLA’S WRONG TURN”
All progress requires change… not all change is progress,
I’m Bill Walton,
I’m a California native, resident, engaged citizen, voter, and taxpayer,
I’m a product of California’s terrific public school systems,
I’m a proud UCLA alum,
I am not in favor of UCLA’s recent announced decision to leave the Pac-12 Conference of Champions,
nor their desire to join the Big 10,
I don’t like this attempted move,
I don’t support it,
I hope it does not happen,
UCLA is a public school that is supposed to serve the interests of the State of California,
UCLA is one of the world’s greatest schools, and brands,
UCLA represents the best of what life has been, and can, could and should be,
UCLA has been as great and as important a part of my life as anything, ever,
I don’t believe that joining the Big 10 is in the best interest of UCLA, its students, its athletes, its alumni, its fans, the rest of the UC system, the State of California, or the world at large,
some of the many reasons why I am opposed to UCLA’s attempted move to the Big 10 are, in no particular order,
• the negative impact on the health, both physical and mental, of UCLA’s student-athletes,
the exponential increase in travel on UCLA’s student-athletes will hurt them physically, mentally, and in their overall lives,
• the negative impact of the excessive travel will extend to families, friends, fans, alumni and everyone else,
• the increased costs of joining the Big 10 will negate the projected increased revenue assumptions of this proposed move,
• this proposed move to the Big 10 is contrary to UCLA’s and the entire UC System’s stated and professed environmental sustainability goals,
• this proposed move to the Big 10 has serious negative implications and ramifications for the University of California, Berkeley,
and flies in the face of the supposed team concept that has always been a part of the California Dream, plan and business model,
• this proposed move to the Big 10, is all about football, and money,
• what about all the other 24 sports and 600+student-athletes at UCLA, who are responsible for 99+% of UCLA’s National Championships,
• how many of these “others” are represented and willing participants in this proposed deal,
I went to UCLA — gladly, willingly, and proudly,
it was my dream,
that dream never included the Big 10,
I have spoken to no one, other than the highest-level directors of athletics at UCLA, who think that this proposed move to the Big 10 is a good idea,
every argument made by these senior AD’s and why they like it, is about money,
these same proponents of moving to the Big 10, are the first people I have ever encountered in my life,
who have claimed economic hardship and limitations in Los Angeles,
and that the solution lies in the Midwest,
I have made my feelings known, privately, to the powers that be in the State of California, including the UC’s Board of Regents,
my hope and dream is that this proposed move by UCLA, my alma mater, will be rescinded,
Bill Walton,
UCLA 1974
A Bill Walton article makes for a newsy day. It's time to stop paying attention to Wilner lol.
Gonzaga is literally considering joining the Big East for this very reason. Travel would be insane, but they have aspirations.
Canzano is the one who did the Bill Walton piece. He hinted at it yesterday. He never suggested it was major like some of his haters say.ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:36 pmA Bill Walton article makes for a newsy day. It's time to stop paying attention to Wilner lol.
Walton is on Wilner/Canzano's podcast. The Walton interview is what he was talking about with that tweet.PHXCATS wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:41 pmCanzano is the one who did the Bill Walton piece. He hinted at it yesterday. He never suggested it was major like some of his haters say.ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:36 pmA Bill Walton article makes for a newsy day. It's time to stop paying attention to Wilner lol.
Wilner is a weirdo but he usually does good work. I imagine there is something brewing besides this Walton piece that his podcast co-host had
Ok cool. I still imagine there is more brewing
AzCatFan2 wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 10:22 am By all media leaks, the PAC will land somewhere between $34 and $36 million per school.
The Sports Business Journal Link for one. The Canzaro piece for another. And frankly, the PAC should get more. We have schools like UO and UW that are worth more than anything in the BIG 12, have as many major media markets, and as much as we hate the 4th window, we have 10 teams that can host games during this time slot, versus the BIG 12 with only 1 (BYU). Canzaro seems to be plugged into good sources, and he stated between $34 and $36 million per team when all is said and done.
LMAO I keep re-reading this trying to get past it and I can't. It just fits and is so true.CardiacCats97 wrote: Tue Nov 01, 2022 12:03 pm Battered spouse syndrome is apparently a thing when it comes to conference alignment.
“But the Pac10 loves me!”
Your argument is completely illogical, and frankly, ridiculous.AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:34 am I don't see the top 3 PAC schools ever joining the BIG 12. Stanford would never join a conference with BYU and Baylor. And for UW and Oregon, the BIG 12 means at best, equal money but more travel, while aligning with schools that don't have as high as academic standards as a CAL and Stanford. For OU and UW, that's a losing proposition.
With the B1G deciding for whatever reason(s) not to send a death blow to the PAC this round by taking UW and OU, UW and OU currently have only two options. Stay in the PAC, or go BIG 12. It should be obvious which direction they are headed. The PAC is likely to survive this round, and with a contract that according to Canzaro will be larger, per school, than the BIG 12. Canzaro could be wrong, but he's well connected in both Eugene and Seattle, and I find it unlikely Canzaro's sources would be so far off from the $34 to $36 million per school mark.
Staying with the PAC for this round gives us more options, and most likely more money. Assuming our contract ends like the BIG 12 in 2030, come 2030, if the B1G kills the PAC by taking Oregon and UW, the BIG 12 will then be our best option. But maybe Oregon and UW like having easier access to the playoffs? Maybe UCLA reconsiders their move? Maybe the SEC/ESPN wants to be a coast-to-coast conference, and UW and Oregon still harbor anger against USC, and we get included in this move? Who knows.
Staying until 2030 gives us options. And in 2030, the ACC will still have 4 more years on their contract. Staying in the PAC will likely bring us more money too. The exposure difference between the BIG 12 and PAC is TBD, but the risk of being the first conference on a streaming service might bring us rewards? If not, it's only a few years.
Last, if the BIG 12 is stable, it's only because after OK and TX leave, the conference will consist of a bunch of P5 also-rans and G5 schools recently promoted. And yes, I understand Arizona fits the demographic of a P5 also-ran, but if we want to become something more, better to align ourselves with schools that already are. There isn't a single Big 12 school that the SEC or B1G want, except for maybe Kansas. And Kansas would not be in the top 5 wish list for either. If the BIG 12 also-ran conference is our best option in the future, so be it. But until that's the case, we should keep other options open.
UCLA won't reconsider by choice no matter what stoner alumni say, but GK is trying to convince the regents to change the 1991 ruling where campus presidents can make their own contracts without regent approval.
UW and Oregon have ivory towers. Not as big as CAL or Stanford's, but still quite large. UW didn't want to let ASu into the conference back in 1978 because of academic reasons. It's not the defining factor that would keep UW and OU out of the BIG 12 like it is for Stanford and CAL. But academics are a consideration for these schools. Always have been.dmjcat wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:46 amYour argument is completely illogical, and frankly, ridiculous.AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 9:34 am I don't see the top 3 PAC schools ever joining the BIG 12. Stanford would never join a conference with BYU and Baylor. And for UW and Oregon, the BIG 12 means at best, equal money but more travel, while aligning with schools that don't have as high as academic standards as a CAL and Stanford. For OU and UW, that's a losing proposition.
With the B1G deciding for whatever reason(s) not to send a death blow to the PAC this round by taking UW and OU, UW and OU currently have only two options. Stay in the PAC, or go BIG 12. It should be obvious which direction they are headed. The PAC is likely to survive this round, and with a contract that according to Canzaro will be larger, per school, than the BIG 12. Canzaro could be wrong, but he's well connected in both Eugene and Seattle, and I find it unlikely Canzaro's sources would be so far off from the $34 to $36 million per school mark.
Staying with the PAC for this round gives us more options, and most likely more money. Assuming our contract ends like the BIG 12 in 2030, come 2030, if the B1G kills the PAC by taking Oregon and UW, the BIG 12 will then be our best option. But maybe Oregon and UW like having easier access to the playoffs? Maybe UCLA reconsiders their move? Maybe the SEC/ESPN wants to be a coast-to-coast conference, and UW and Oregon still harbor anger against USC, and we get included in this move? Who knows.
Staying until 2030 gives us options. And in 2030, the ACC will still have 4 more years on their contract. Staying in the PAC will likely bring us more money too. The exposure difference between the BIG 12 and PAC is TBD, but the risk of being the first conference on a streaming service might bring us rewards? If not, it's only a few years.
Last, if the BIG 12 is stable, it's only because after OK and TX leave, the conference will consist of a bunch of P5 also-rans and G5 schools recently promoted. And yes, I understand Arizona fits the demographic of a P5 also-ran, but if we want to become something more, better to align ourselves with schools that already are. There isn't a single Big 12 school that the SEC or B1G want, except for maybe Kansas. And Kansas would not be in the top 5 wish list for either. If the BIG 12 also-ran conference is our best option in the future, so be it. But until that's the case, we should keep other options open.
UW/UO are going to go wherever they can get the most money......PERIOD. Academics and appearances are not going to influence the NW schools, $$$$$$$$$ will.
And if that ends up being the Big12 then they will take slots that, for the moment, are open to the UA. If we stand pat, we may end up in a conference with Oregon State, WSU and the MWC remnants.
We should already have one foot out the door to the Big12. Instead we’ll be shutting out the lights on the PAC-6 when the MWC decides to give us a mercy invite.Alieberman wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:17 pm Gonzaga is going to beat us to the punch in joining the Big 12
The Big-12's pro rata deal only includes P5 teams.Alieberman wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 3:17 pm Gonzaga is going to beat us to the punch in joining the Big 12
Anything that gets us out of this abusive relationship, I’m on board.AZCatGirl wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 4:17 pm So we're looking for a travel partner for the Big 12, Gonzaga is exploring joining... why don't we team up and get it done?
Boise actually had that arrangement set up when their football was leaving for the Big East, before it fractured. They were set to move their non-football sports ironically enough to the WCC.CardiacCats97 wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:37 am I doubt BSU would be cool with having their football team be in a different conference than the rest of their sports.
Maybe Gonzaga will start to field a football team if they can get money up front to do so. Didn’t UConn do that?
ND football is and will always be an extreme outlier to this debate.Merkin wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:51 am Notre Dame also keeps their football program as an independent while the other sports are in the ACC.
Ah thanks. I had forgotten about that.ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:44 amBoise actually had that arrangement set up when their football was leaving for the Big East, before it fractured. They were set to move their non-football sports ironically enough to the WCC.CardiacCats97 wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:37 am I doubt BSU would be cool with having their football team be in a different conference than the rest of their sports.
Maybe Gonzaga will start to field a football team if they can get money up front to do so. Didn’t UConn do that?
Also, IIRC, their wrestling team used to be in the PAC-12.ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:44 amBoise actually had that arrangement set up when their football was leaving for the Big East, before it fractured. They were set to move their non-football sports ironically enough to the WCC.CardiacCats97 wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 8:37 am I doubt BSU would be cool with having their football team be in a different conference than the rest of their sports.
Maybe Gonzaga will start to field a football team if they can get money up front to do so. Didn’t UConn do that?
Yep. We have to embrace the "new" reality. Academics be damned. Athletics is a "separate entity" when it comes to finances.ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 5:35 pm Gonzaga to the PAC would never happen because the Washington schools are too jealous and the Bay Area schools would shun any religious school. So in other words the Big 12 will benefit and we will remain tortured in this shit conference.