Bear Down Wildcats

catgrad97 wrote:Seth Greenberg has Kansas beating Arizona in the Elite Eight. Respect there.

I'm alright with the crappy seeding (thanks to the inconsistent seeding across the board), but I wish we hadn't ended up in a bracket with Kansas. Or so far out east.

You think KU fans looked at being in the south region and being the overall #1 seed and saw AZ and at least thought back to 97.

Would be fun to get that far and see how we would play against the chicken hawks

*shrug* Fans were saying going into this season, "Anywhere but Anaheim."

Now we see where that puts the Cats--the game that finishes last after half the country has gone to bed.

At least Alkins can come watch us play. I hate saying this, but my No. 1 goal from the Cats in this tourney is to convince Josh Jackson to come to Arizona. Whatever play that takes....surprising, underachieving, whatever.

I'm nothing if not brutally honest. I never want to see Arizona embarrassed, but this team showed otherwise in the Pac-12 tourney.

I truthfully, seriously wonder how much it has to play for at this point.

UA has the 3rd most distance to travel (a little under 2600 Miles), behind Holy Cross and of course Hawaii. Followed by a bunch of teams from the east side of the Mississippi having to go to Spokane.

That sucks, likely won't have a huge crowd advantage either.

UAEebs86 wrote:

dirtbags wrote:

azcat49 wrote:So we have only 4 guys with tourney game experience while Trier, Tolly, CC, Ryan Anderson and Kadeem Anderson will be new to this.

Hope they are ready

RA and tolly have a little bit of postseason experience in the NIT. oh well. but CSM's been there and done that a number of times, and that'll help carry even an inexperienced team a bunch

Ryan Anderson has never played in a post-season tournament. BC's last appearance was the 2011 NIT. His first season with playing time at BC was 2012-13.

Unless you count being on the bench last year for us.

i stand corrected, @uaeebs - i thought i remembered hearing RA mention in an interview some time ago that one of the things he liked about being at Arizona was "competing in the postseason, and not in the NIT" this is what i get for not fact-checking myself!

catgrad97 wrote:I never want to see Arizona embarrassed, but this team showed otherwise in the Pac-12 tourney.

I truthfully, seriously wonder how much it has to play for at this point.

What the hell are you talking about?

Guys this will be a little OT away from the bracket talk but I think its worth contemplating and taking a step and finding perspective.

Additionally this doesn't apply at all times and in all instances but, think about this.

Outside of Tarc and that even includes Trier this year, we don't have any players that would be drafted and remain on any NBA teams final roster cut.

When you stop and think about that for a moment, things kinda become a little clearer.

I know there are plenty of counter arguments that can be made under other diverse scenarios but I just thought it was telling nonetheless.

Miller is a witch for the rabbit he has had to pull from his hat this year.

To echo GC, I'll be pleasantly surprised if we make the second weekend.

NYCat wrote:UA has the 3rd most distance to travel (a little under 2600 Miles), behind Holy Cross and of course Hawaii. Followed by a bunch of teams from the east side of the Mississippi having to go to Spokane.

That sucks, likely won't have a huge crowd advantage either.

If it helps none of those teams in our first two rounds are anywhere near Providence. Only Buffalo, kinda/sorta.

Gladiator Cat wrote:Guys this will be a little OT away from the bracket talk but I think its worth contemplating and taking a step and finding perspective.

Additionally this doesn't apply at all times and in all instances but, think about this.

Outside of Tarc and that even includes Trier this year, we don't have any players that would be drafted and remain on any NBA teams final roster cut.

When you stop and think about that for a moment, things kinda become a little clearer.

I know there are plenty of counter arguments that can be made under other diverse scenarios but I just thought it was telling nonetheless.

It sound like you arguing against anyone saying this team will get to the final 4. I haven't heard anybody claiming anything other than getting out of the first weekend.

CalStateTempe wrote:Miller is a witch for the rabbit he has had to pull from his hat this year.

To echo GC, I'll be pleasantly surprised if we make the second weekend.

Agreed. Miller has done as much as can be done with this year's team. Let's hope we return to a better seed next year and breakthrough to the Final Four.

NYCat wrote:51% chance of reaching the round of 32 according to Nate Silver's 538.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... #400871279" target="_blank

Waiting on Kenpom's

interested in seeing the kenpom projections, too.

right now, the prediction markets have ku as the favorites to win in all (at 7:1) in the outrights, followed by unc + msu (9:1), oklahoma + nova (12:1), and xavier + uk + uva (14:1)

pac teams:
Arizona ... 33:1
oregon ... 33:1
cal ... 50:1
'tah ... 66:1
'rado ... 200:1
sc and osu are off the radar

this will definitely move before the play-ins, though i wonder how much. it's too bad warren buffett isn't doing that billion dollar bracket thing anymore. it would be a lot of fun to see if anyone can even come close to a perfect bracket with the field being what it is this year.

Free

Gut feeling? Who do y'all think we would play better against between Vandy and Wichita? I think UA would do better against Wichita. Looking at their roster, Looks like if we fed the post all day to Anderson and Zeus we'd be ok as long as they didn't rain 3's on us. Vandy has a lot more size and a lot more scoring throughout their roster. They use a lot of players and they all contribute. About 9 deep.

The shockers have the #1 defensive efficiency in the nation but they only play 1 guy who is as tall as 6'8". They are not as good on offense are not a good 3 point shooting team.

Vandy is much bigger and can stroke it from 3. About the same level of offensive and defensive efficiency. I think there game Tuesday could tell us a lot as Vandy has 2 7 footers they play.

If the shockers defense gives them fits We have to hope our defense is there for 40 minutes as it might be a grind it out kind of game

Vegas has WSU favored by 3

dirtbags wrote:
this will definitely move before the play-ins, though i wonder how much. it's too bad warren buffett isn't doing that billion dollar bracket thing anymore. it would be a lot of fun to see if anyone can even come close to a perfect bracket with the field being what it is this year.

No one will ever pick a perfect bracket.

Odds are somewhere between one in 2.4 trillion to one in 9.2 quadrillion.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/duke-ma ... 4-trillion

Alieberman wrote:

catgrad97 wrote:I never want to see Arizona embarrassed, but this team showed otherwise in the Pac-12 tourney.

I truthfully, seriously wonder how much it has to play for at this point.

What the hell are you talking about?

That is what I am wondering. Embarrassment?

yeah, i saw the 9.2 quadrillion number on espn as i was typing that post but i think the odds are especially thin this season since there's little separation among teams on the right side of, say, the 4-seeds. it's gonna be nuts.

even with the low-end of the odds being what it is with more "educated" picks, it makes me wonder if a billion dollar payout thing could be a lucrative racket if there was a $1 per entry surcharge, haha

Alieberman wrote:

catgrad97 wrote:I never want to see Arizona embarrassed, but this team showed otherwise in the Pac-12 tourney.

I truthfully, seriously wonder how much it has to play for at this point.

What the hell are you talking about?

FightWildcatsFight wrote:

That's a big part of what the hell I'm talking about. I don't need to spell out the statement that sends prior to the tourney, do I?

Factor in also the last four minutes of the first half against Oregon and the 58-point second half against Colorado. Those were kind of embarrassing.

You expect something different in a half-empty arena in Providence on Thursday night?

So by giving teams what they deserve, youre basically admitting the wildcats deserved to get shitted on for scheduling a weak nonconference slate? Arizona had no control over Gonzaga crapping the bed or UNLV imploding. Boise State was a tournament team at the beginning of the season, they entered a tournament that featured Michigan State. Because all that other stuff, everyone else in the conference went through this year. Losing on the road, basically. Except ours were all heartbreaking losses in the closing seconds. Others got beat bad. A bunch of games with one ball didnt bounce our way or one call (lol) didnt go our way. Teams had all that and lost more games. And those teams lost to some bad teams. Not us, one loss to a non tournament team, and that team also beat Kentucky.

So why didnt they all get what they deserved? Basically just schedule tough and u get rewarded no matter what? The RPI is the only dumb metric that says our SOS is garbage. Hell, the BPI says our overall schedule ranked 50th. I 100 percent agree with "we made our bed now we have to sleep in it." But in a conference where the best teams went 5-4 on the road, we went 4-5, tied w cal. Everyone else was worse. And our losses looked a lot better. We lost two less games than Cal. Essentially, a few bad bounces keep us from being where Oregon is, or a two seed. Its dumb, its just a bunch of idiots looking at a piece of paper with RPI rankings on it and the RPI SOS and calling it a day. The only metric that says we deserve what we got is RPI. Kenpom says we are a 4 seed. BPI and Sagarin say we are a 3. Not saying we deserve a 3 or 4, but a 6, clear across the country?

deuce, not sure if you were addressing that post to me or someone else, but even if the matchups aren't what the Cats deserve, there isn't a single even anecdotal point we can point to that says this team feels disrespected and is out to prove people wrong.

Even compared to most past tournaments--even the ones in which the Cats lost in the first round and proved the doubters right. There was a heck of a lot more defiance and determination then.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but neither Miller nor anyone else from the team has come out and said anything like that after today.

If the team lacked determination they would've let Oregon blow them out instead of taking them to OT. It's not like the players just give up when they're losing.

AZCatGirl wrote:If the team lacked determination they would've let Oregon blow them out instead of taking them to OT. It's not like the players just give up when they're losing.

This is not ultimately about the Oregon game, which was all but gift-wrapped to the Cats when it should have been lost in regulation anyway, so I'm not sure of the point there.

Nobody besides a few of us are saying that Arizona didn't deserve its seed or its matchup. I'm sure Gabe York will come out in the next day or so saying all the things we want to hear, but until then, I haven't heard any positive indicators of how this team is approaching its first-round opponent yet.

I guess what my message would be about this Arizona team and its NCAA tournament performance is, don't get your hopes up. Just try to enjoy the experience and look forward to next season. There's not too much more of a takeway with this group IMHO.

One way for zo to improve his seeding is to have a monster tournament.

True, and Pascoe tweeted as much later. He also added that "whether he gets invited to the NBA combine will be key" to his potential return.

I accept all the physical and skill limitations of this bunch. What I can't accept in an Arizona team is the near-total disengagement shown at the end of the first half Friday against Oregon and at several times in the second half against Colorado.

I can detach and not worry about it, but Miller expects more, and he should. One more performance like that in Providence, though, and it'll be Bucknell in McKale all over again, and that's probably being generous.

Outside of Hawaii (obvious reasons) and Holy Cross (16 seed), Arizona has to travel the farthest distance for their opening round game(s).

catgrad97 wrote:I guess what my message would be about this Arizona team and its NCAA tournament performance is, don't get your hopes up. Just try to enjoy the experience and look forward to next season. There's not too much more of a takeway with this group IMHO.

Has anyone got their hopes up? You're preaching to the choir that we shouldn't expect much. I just want them to reach the Sweet 16, but a loss Thursday or Saturday wouldn't surprise me. It's only a matter of time before the team's inconsistency knocks them out.

AZCatGirl wrote:

catgrad97 wrote:I guess what my message would be about this Arizona team and its NCAA tournament performance is, don't get your hopes up. Just try to enjoy the experience and look forward to next season. There's not too much more of a takeway with this group IMHO.

Has anyone got their hopes up? You're preaching to the choir that we shouldn't expect much. I just want them to reach the Sweet 16, but a loss Thursday or Saturday wouldn't surprise me. It's only a matter of time before the team's inconsistency knocks them out.

I just see a lot of the usual fight in us that this team may not necessarily deliver on, a la 2004 against Seton Hall. There are fans who still haven't forgiven or forgotten Andre Iguodala's perceived NBA audition in his final two games to end that disappointing season!

We could put on an Arizona jersey and prove many of the doubters wrong, but IMHO there's no pleasant surprise left in this team.

Especially not after Trier's intentions of testing the waters were made public, and the general quiet from the team about its seeding. They don't seem to expect a lot from themselves in this tournament either. Even an off-hand comment Miller made about Zeus is telling:

Sean Miller wrote:Kaleb, if there’s one guy in the country that deserves to go home, it’s him. We talked about maybe scheduling a game in that area of the country, and it never really worked out for us. I think it’s a fitting end to his career here at Arizona, in his last NCAA Tournament, to have an opportunity to play in front of family and friends.

Hope they prove me wrong, but what we've seen so far is IMHO what we're pretty much going to get, at best, on Thursday. And that may or may not be enough to beat a hungry Wichita State or Vanderbilt team.

I'm rooting for Arizona to make the Elite 8 so that KU can embarrass you and Perry Ellis can give Tarczewski the tea bag he deserves.

Bear Down.

enfuego wrote:I'm rooting for Arizona to make the Elite 8 so that KU can embarrass you and Perry Ellis can give Tarczewski the tea bag he deserves.

Bear Down.

Lol, the only good thing about this disappointing season is that the pressure (other than a first round flameout) isn't there WHILE if KU doesn't at least make a FF, it will be a disaster for you.....I will enjoy being the underdog if we get far enough to meet up with you guys.

Bear Down to you too

enfuego wrote:I'm rooting for Arizona to make the Elite 8 so that KU can embarrass you and Perry Ellis can give Tarczewski the tea bag he deserves.

Bear Down.

It's about time for another early exit for kansas right? isn't it like every two years?

Some interesting insights from three Big Ten scholars:

The decline in winning percentage is most precipitous for tournament teams that travel east, dropping to below 38% for teams crossing two or more time zones.

The easterly time zone disadvantage may be due to the fact that early round tournament games tend to be played during the day, thus closer to the “body-clock sweet spot” of the eastern teams.

Traveling more than 150 miles from home reduces the odds of winning to 0.664, or 33.6% less than for those who play in their home regions.

http://winthropintelligence.com/2014/02 ... -outcomes/" target="_blank

That's why I'm glad our game will tip about 6:20 pm local time. Not that different from a normal tip time.

ChooChooCat wrote:Outside of Hawaii (obvious reasons) and Holy Cross (16 seed), Arizona has to travel the farthest distance for their opening round game(s).

I think that will be irrelevant for this weekend. While the Cats are traveling to RI out 2 possible opponents will be traveling to Dayton, playing a game, then hurry up to RI themselves. After that I feel the travel will have no effect for the Saturday game.

I'm wondering what the major difference is between us and Cal...they didn't beat anyone in the non-conference either. Going by the committee, Cal's close loss to UVA should mean jack-shit too.

rgdeuce summed it up above, we got absolutely whored by the committee not taking our one possession losses into account, which they almost all were. And to some really good teams on the road that are seeded very high by the same damn committee. They gave us zero leeway, and probably even penalized us.

Oh well, we're going to face some tough teams regardless. Still hoping for the best. If we come ready to play we can beat anyone. The 6-seed might even be a blessing when we look back on it a week from today.

catgrad97 wrote:
You expect something different in a half-empty arena in Providence on Thursday night?

I am thinking that this might be the smallest crowd we have played in front of this year. I was thinking about taking the four and a half hour ride to Providence but it just isn't going to work out on Thursday night.

To me a six is extremely fair for the season Arizona had. When the best wins are at home vs Cal and Colorado in Vegas which is like a home game, and an OOC SOS over 200. Down year but many teams would take it. I dont see the fear that others have for Miami and Nova. Think if the Cats win the first game, the one I am most concerned about, they can make the elite 8.

Biggest concern is the wall Anderson has hit and Miller's lack of confidence in him as far as the team goes. I think that goes along with Gabe making dumb plays because he feels the pressure from Miller and others to make up for Anderson.

I went back and took a look at the results of the play-in winner in the next round. From 2007 to 2010 there was only one play-in game and none of them won the next round. They went to four play-in games in 2011 and every year there has been one play-in winner who won their next game with a few of them making a nice run. VCU being the standout in 2011.

Record of the 6th seed in the tourney.

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml" target="_blank

Overall tournament record of #6 seeds: (176-146) 54.7%
vs. #1 (5-10) 33.3%
vs. #2 (10-26) 27.8%
vs. #3 (38-46) 45.2%
vs. #4 (4-2) 66.7%
vs. #5 (0-1) 0.0%
vs. #6 (0-0) 0.0%
vs. #7 (4-3) 57.1%
vs. #8 (1-3) 25.0%
vs. #9 (0-0) 0.0%
vs. #10 (6-4) 60.0%
vs. #11 (95-49) 66.0%
vs. #12 (0-0) 0.0%
vs. #13 (0-0) 0.0%
vs. #14 (13-2) 86.7%
vs. #15 (0-0) 0.0%
vs. #16 (0-0) 0.0%

Medcalf from ESPN just said no Pac teams are getting to the S-16.

Beachcat97 wrote:Medcalf from ESPN just said no Pac teams are getting to the S-16.

Do you think he's willing to bet on it?

Beachcat97 wrote:Medcalf from ESPN just said no Pac teams are getting to the S-16.

Pac could easily go 7-0 in the round of 64
Yes, lots of tough games in the next round but no way entire Pac goes out before Sweet 16. That's moronic

Beachcat97 wrote:Medcalf from ESPN just said no Pac teams are getting to the S-16.

OK, I just saw his piece. What a dipshit.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... st-weekend" target="_blank

1. National title? North Carolina won't even make the Sweet 16
2. Three Final Four teams will come from the Big 12
3. Big Ten champ Indiana will lose to Chattanooga in the first round
4. Kentucky will lose to Stony Brook in the first round, too
5. Oregon will lose to Saint Joseph's in the second round
6. No Sweet 16 squads from the Pac-12
7. Northern Iowa messes with Texas and Texas A&M on the way to the Sweet 16
8. Kansas will win every game by double digits on the way to the national championship
9. Temple will win the all-Philly match up against Nova
10. South Dakota State over Maryland in the first round

Haha those are some bold proclamations. Anything to get clicks I guess.

azgreg wrote:

Beachcat97 wrote:Medcalf from ESPN just said no Pac teams are getting to the S-16.

OK, I just saw his piece. What a dipshit.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... st-weekend" target="_blank

1. National title? North Carolina won't even make the Sweet 16
2. Three Final Four teams will come from the Big 12
3. Big Ten champ Indiana will lose to Chattanooga in the first round
4. Kentucky will lose to Stony Brook in the first round, too
5. Oregon will lose to Saint Joseph's in the second round
6. No Sweet 16 squads from the Pac-12
7. Northern Iowa messes with Texas and Texas A&M on the way to the Sweet 16
8. Kansas will win every game by double digits on the way to the national championship
9. Temple will win the all-Philly match up against Nova
10. South Dakota State over Maryland in the first round

Wow I want some of what he's smoking.

Oregon will smoke St. Joe's, and Kansas will experience its annual subregional scare.

The Kentucky and Indiana picks were even worse hit-trolling. Time for baseball season, Medcalf.

azgreg wrote:

Beachcat97 wrote:Medcalf from ESPN just said no Pac teams are getting to the S-16.

OK, I just saw his piece. What a dipshit.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... st-weekend" target="_blank

1. National title? North Carolina won't even make the Sweet 16
2. Three Final Four teams will come from the Big 12
3. Big Ten champ Indiana will lose to Chattanooga in the first round
4. Kentucky will lose to Stony Brook in the first round, too
5. Oregon will lose to Saint Joseph's in the second round
6. No Sweet 16 squads from the Pac-12
7. Northern Iowa messes with Texas and Texas A&M on the way to the Sweet 16
8. Kansas will win every game by double digits on the way to the national championship
9. Temple will win the all-Philly match up against Nova
10. South Dakota State over Maryland in the first round

Every single one of those picks is an upset special of the whole tourney for a normal bracket.

azgreg wrote:

Beachcat97 wrote:Medcalf from ESPN just said no Pac teams are getting to the S-16.

OK, I just saw his piece. What a dipshit.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... st-weekend" target="_blank

1. National title? North Carolina won't even make the Sweet 16
2. Three Final Four teams will come from the Big 12
3. Big Ten champ Indiana will lose to Chattanooga in the first round
4. Kentucky will lose to Stony Brook in the first round, too
5. Oregon will lose to Saint Joseph's in the second round
6. No Sweet 16 squads from the Pac-12
7. Northern Iowa messes with Texas and Texas A&M on the way to the Sweet 16
8. Kansas will win every game by double digits on the way to the national championship
9. Temple will win the all-Philly match up against Nova
10. South Dakota State over Maryland in the first round

I didn't know enfuego worked for espn

Well I got what I wanted. Let's do this:

Olsondogg wrote:Stay healthy...that's all I want. Give me a 6 seed, and play on...