Bear Down Wildcats

This round. In 2030 it could be different

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 4:51 pm This round. In 2030 it could be different

Unless we somehow morph into a football powerhouse by 2030, it won’t be any different. Stop pretending otherwise.

If CU does declare tomorrow, chances of PAC surviving are, IMO, 50%, at best. If a second school bolts, that would go down to maybe 30%. And Robby Bobbins will have UA go down with the sinking ship, saying "we just have to wait for the numbers". Sad, sad, sad, sad shitshow.


ETA: PS -- no, the B1G will not give UA even a first glance. Absolutely no chance.

The streamers are notorious to slow play things and to not overpay. CU leaving probably doesn’t kill a deal but it certainly would be dead if Oregon bolts.

Robbins has his chance to creat a legacy and move us away from financial uncertainty athletics wise. One would think he has played this scenario out in his mind.

Of course now you could grab SDST and give them a full share

A week ago...

TucsonCat wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 5:00 pm

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 4:51 pm This round. In 2030 it could be different

Unless we somehow morph into a football powerhouse by 2030, it won’t be any different. Stop pretending otherwise.

It will be a race to 24 teams for each the BIg Ten and SEC.

Both have 16 currently so that leaves 16 openings total.

These are the only schools that would for sure get invited ahead of Arizona that are not part of the SEC or Big Ten currently

Washington
Stanford
Notre Dame
Clemson
MIami
North Carolina
Florida State
Virginia is close to UA

So that leaves 8 spots open

UA is far better than most the rest

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 5:33 pm

TucsonCat wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 5:00 pm

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 4:51 pm This round. In 2030 it could be different

Unless we somehow morph into a football powerhouse by 2030, it won’t be any different. Stop pretending otherwise.

It will be a race to 24 teams for each the BIg Ten and SEC.

Both have 16 currently so that leaves 16 openings total.

These are the only schools that would for sure get invited ahead of Arizona that are not part of the SEC or Big Ten currently

Washington
Stanford
Notre Dame
Clemson
MIami
North Carolina
Florida State
Virginia is close to UA

So that leaves 8 spots open

UA is far better than most the rest

You forgot a few…

Oregon
Cal (partner with Stanford)
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Louisville
Duke (essentially the same as AZ, but with better academics)
Syracuse (see Duke above)
NC State
Pitt
ASU
Utah
And any number of smaller division schools that are up and comers.

You can say that AZ is on par with the bottom 4-5, of those I mentioned above, but the AZ market isn’t enough to tip the scales in our favor over pretty much any of them, leaving us in a tenuous position at best. If you don’t jump now, you run the risk of missing a spot at a major conference table. Yes, we might dominate the MWC, but who the hell cares?

With this latest news, the Home Shopping Network just pulled their offer to show PAC-8 games. They don’t mind airing some fake ass bullshit to their viewers but they have to draw the line somewhere.

I am sorry what???

The Big Ten would absolutely not take any school on that list over Arizona

To the B1G we're just a blue version of ASU.

The UA is in a potentially perilous position. If we keep waiting for the P12 commish to divulge the new media deal (which I believe is NOT good) we could very well find ourselves on the outside looking in.

What if (and there are a hundred other equally bad scenarios) Oregon & UW follow Colorado to the B12??? If the B12 is only willing to take 4 P12 schools we may very well be the odd man out with asu/Utah as the other options for the 4th school. The Pac6 would have no deal and the UA would be stuck in a conference without USC/UCLA/UO/UW. The resulting Pac6 would adsorb several MWC schools and sign a streaming deal for less than $8 figures.........The UA would drop to the level of a MWC school and slowly die on the vine.

This situation reminds me of the old adage "A bird in hand is better than two in the bush:" IMO Robbins needs to act quickly and proactively and get us the HELL out of the P12

Fans looming short term. Heeke and Robbins thankfully looking long term

If there is really any TV negotiations going on, how does CU moving on impact those negotiations and how far does it push back the timeline for an announcement? We can’t afford to wait forever on this.

Has Kliavkoff said anything publicly or will he just wait until CU announces they are gone?

Yeah, our long term demise.

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 6:38 pm Fans looming short term. Heeke and Robbins thankfully looking long term

Walk us through this. Add SDSU, negotiate a comparable TV/streaming deal, and wait for the invite to B1G/SEC by 2030?

arizonawildcats wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 6:59 pm

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 6:38 pm Fans looming short term. Heeke and Robbins thankfully looking long term

Walk us through this. Add SDSU, negotiate a comparable TV/streaming deal, and wait for the invite to B1G/SEC by 2030?

SDSU, SMU and UNLV or CSU and yes. Get close to or beat the Big 12 and position to be a school in the SEC or Big Ten if they expand to 20 22 or 24 schools each

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 6:24 pm I am sorry what???

The Big Ten would absolutely not take any school on that list over Arizona

Hahahaha!! Sure they wouldn’t.

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 7:03 pm

arizonawildcats wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 6:59 pm

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 6:38 pm Fans looming short term. Heeke and Robbins thankfully looking long term

Walk us through this. Add SDSU, negotiate a comparable TV/streaming deal, and wait for the invite to B1G/SEC by 2030?

SDSU, SMU and UNLV or CSU and yes. Get close to or beat the Big 12 and position to be a school in the SEC or Big Ten if they expand to 20 22 or 24 schools each

Dude, you are more delusional than ACF2 on this topic. Time to stop being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian. We are never, ever going to end up in the Big20-24, or the SEC. There are too many FOOTBALL-centric schools that they would happily take over us. Period. This is all about money, numbskull. Basketball, and academics don’t move the needle when it comes to conference affiliation. Only football moves that needle, and we simply aren’t on that level. Period.

Let's say after the espn deal with the acc expires we have 3 different 24 team power conferences. 72 teams. More than current power schools FYI but besides the point currently. You all really want to hold yourself in the shit FOREVER at the cost of a little discomfort now. Fuck that shit

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 6:38 pm Fans looming short term. Heeke and Robbins thankfully looking long term

You eat a funny mushroom my man?

CU is gonzo.

arizonawildcats wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 7:39 pm

If this is true it doesn’t sound like Robbins and Heeke are looking long term

Yormark shouldn't have to give us a deadline. The Pac was dead as soon as USC and UCLA left. Kliavkoff is never getting a decent media rights deal and adding Mountain West schools is not saving the conference.

Big 10 are waiting to get Oregon and Washington on the cheap. Wouldn’t surprise me if Oregon is trying to counter this with the Big 12 rumors.

I can’t wait for PAC-12 to tell the presidents they need more time but it’s close.

Related but off topic as to sector: in my experience in a starkly different competitive environment, entities with greater competitive advantage opt earlier than entities of lesser advantage. Essentially, context dictates tactic to lesser entities while advantage dictates tactic to dominant entities. The longer a lesser entity waits in a context of declining advantage the poorer the options and outcome.

Alright another exercise

Let's say it is 3 20 team confidences or 4 16 team conferences. 60 or 64 teams in those scenarios. Currently 69 power teams counting Notre Dame

So who is for sure worse compared to UA? A fuck lot more than 9

I know the fear is if we don't move to the BIG12 now, we'll end up in a G5 Conference life the Mountain West. And for the next 5 years, the BIG12 has a decent TV contract. But what happens after that period is over and the SEC and B1G start picking off the best of the rest, starting with ACC teams?

The BIG12 would be a distant third, consisting of a bunch of former G5 teams, and P5 also-rans made up of misfits that the big 2 would never want. What's the difference of a BIG12 in this scenario and the Mountain West? How could the BIG12 remain a power conference earning half of what SEC and B1G schools are making?

It is amazing how much espn and fox have played the dumb fans. They played everyone so easily it is amazing to see.

Why did espn and fox offer and agree to any P5 team automatically getting a full share? Hmm I wonder if anyone else is smart enough here to understand why

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 9:44 pm I know the fear is if we don't move to the BIG12 now, we'll end up in a G5 Conference life the Mountain West. And for the next 5 years, the BIG12 has a decent TV contract. But what happens after that period is over and the SEC and B1G start picking off the best of the rest, starting with ACC teams?

The BIG12 would be a distant third, consisting of a bunch of former G5 teams, and P5 also-rans made up of misfits that the big 2 would never want. What's the difference of a BIG12 in this scenario and the Mountain West? How could the BIG12 remain a power conference earning half of what SEC and B1G schools are making?

There's no guarantee we'd be offered a full share with an invite from the SEC or B1G. The Big 12 at least has a TV deal and Yormark has expressed interest in further expansion.

Half share of Big Ten or SEC is better than a full Big 12 share


Again why is the Big 12 espn and fox offering free full shares automatically?

PHXCATS wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 10:13 pm Half share of Big Ten or SEC is better than a full Big 12 share


Again why is the Big 12 espn and fox offering free full shares automatically?

No guarantee we'd be offered a half share. If we got an invite at all it might be similar money to the Big 12. And we'd be making less over the next five years because I doubt Kliavkoff has an ace up his sleeve.

arizonawildcats wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 10:11 pm

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 9:44 pm I know the fear is if we don't move to the BIG12 now, we'll end up in a G5 Conference life the Mountain West. And for the next 5 years, the BIG12 has a decent TV contract. But what happens after that period is over and the SEC and B1G start picking off the best of the rest, starting with ACC teams?

The BIG12 would be a distant third, consisting of a bunch of former G5 teams, and P5 also-rans made up of misfits that the big 2 would never want. What's the difference of a BIG12 in this scenario and the Mountain West? How could the BIG12 remain a power conference earning half of what SEC and B1G schools are making?

There's no guarantee we'd be offered a full share with an invite from the SEC or B1G. The Big 12 at least has a TV deal and Yormark has expressed interest in further expansion.

A potential PAC/ACC merge of top teams would be better than the BIG12. And the BIG12 has a contract that runs through 2030. By that time, if ESPN isn't streaming only, it will be not long after. ACC teams might also be willing to buy themselves out. And none of the top ACC teams will consider the BIG12.

Tell me why the BIG12 in 2030 gets another solid TV contract. Especially if the SEC and B1G has all the top names and expands to 24 each. This happens, and the SEC and B1G are the only two power conferences, and the BIG12 becomes a top Group of Conference.

Short term, the BIG12 may look like a decent option. But long term? They are destined to be a distant 3rd "power conference" at best. Maybe even 4th if top ACC and PAC teams merge.

Yep

Losers only think short term. Thankfully the decision makers aren't thinking only short term

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 10:35 pm

arizonawildcats wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 10:11 pm

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 9:44 pm I know the fear is if we don't move to the BIG12 now, we'll end up in a G5 Conference life the Mountain West. And for the next 5 years, the BIG12 has a decent TV contract. But what happens after that period is over and the SEC and B1G start picking off the best of the rest, starting with ACC teams?

The BIG12 would be a distant third, consisting of a bunch of former G5 teams, and P5 also-rans made up of misfits that the big 2 would never want. What's the difference of a BIG12 in this scenario and the Mountain West? How could the BIG12 remain a power conference earning half of what SEC and B1G schools are making?

There's no guarantee we'd be offered a full share with an invite from the SEC or B1G. The Big 12 at least has a TV deal and Yormark has expressed interest in further expansion.

A potential PAC/ACC merge of top teams would be better than the BIG12. And the BIG12 has a contract that runs through 2030. By that time, if ESPN isn't streaming only, it will be not long after. ACC teams might also be willing to buy themselves out. And none of the top ACC teams will consider the BIG12.

Tell me why the BIG12 in 2030 gets another solid TV contract. Especially if the SEC and B1G has all the top names and expands to 24 each. This happens, and the SEC and B1G are the only two power conferences, and the BIG12 becomes a top Group of Conference.

Short term, the BIG12 may look like a decent option. But long term? They are destined to be a distant 3rd "power conference" at best. Maybe even 4th if top ACC and PAC teams merge.

How confident are you that an invite will come from the B1G, SEC, or ACC in the next couple of years? The Big 12's deal is up in 2031, so we could buy ourselves out a little early if mega conferences are on the horizon.

Over here talking about merging conferences a decade from now but can't even get a deal signed in the present...

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 10:35 pm

arizonawildcats wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 10:11 pm

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 9:44 pm I know the fear is if we don't move to the BIG12 now, we'll end up in a G5 Conference life the Mountain West. And for the next 5 years, the BIG12 has a decent TV contract. But what happens after that period is over and the SEC and B1G start picking off the best of the rest, starting with ACC teams?

The BIG12 would be a distant third, consisting of a bunch of former G5 teams, and P5 also-rans made up of misfits that the big 2 would never want. What's the difference of a BIG12 in this scenario and the Mountain West? How could the BIG12 remain a power conference earning half of what SEC and B1G schools are making?

There's no guarantee we'd be offered a full share with an invite from the SEC or B1G. The Big 12 at least has a TV deal and Yormark has expressed interest in further expansion.

A potential PAC/ACC merge of top teams would be better than the BIG12. And the BIG12 has a contract that runs through 2030. By that time, if ESPN isn't streaming only, it will be not long after. ACC teams might also be willing to buy themselves out. And none of the top ACC teams will consider the BIG12.

Tell me why the BIG12 in 2030 gets another solid TV contract. Especially if the SEC and B1G has all the top names and expands to 24 each. This happens, and the SEC and B1G are the only two power conferences, and the BIG12 becomes a top Group of Conference.

Short term, the BIG12 may look like a decent option. But long term? They are destined to be a distant 3rd "power conference" at best. Maybe even 4th if top ACC and PAC teams merge.

I just don’t follow this at all. Arizona joining Big-12 in 2024-2030 doesn’t exclude Arizona from joining Big10 or SEC in 2031. ACC teams are screwed, the only way out of their deal through 2036 is disbanding ($50 million exit fee) and then there will be major splits between Big10/SEC/Big12. No guarantee that the majority would even join PAC-12. Big-12 has positioned itself to be the 3rd conference because it has shown capable leadership. ACC and PAC-12 conferences don’t have good options. PAC-12 can’t even afford paying the mountain west $34 million exit fee.

Also, and I can’t stress this point enough, how the heck can anyone have confidence that PAC-12 conference would make any good choice?

OSUCat wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 11:07 pm

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 10:35 pm

arizonawildcats wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 10:11 pm

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Jul 26, 2023 9:44 pm I know the fear is if we don't move to the BIG12 now, we'll end up in a G5 Conference life the Mountain West. And for the next 5 years, the BIG12 has a decent TV contract. But what happens after that period is over and the SEC and B1G start picking off the best of the rest, starting with ACC teams?

The BIG12 would be a distant third, consisting of a bunch of former G5 teams, and P5 also-rans made up of misfits that the big 2 would never want. What's the difference of a BIG12 in this scenario and the Mountain West? How could the BIG12 remain a power conference earning half of what SEC and B1G schools are making?

There's no guarantee we'd be offered a full share with an invite from the SEC or B1G. The Big 12 at least has a TV deal and Yormark has expressed interest in further expansion.

A potential PAC/ACC merge of top teams would be better than the BIG12. And the BIG12 has a contract that runs through 2030. By that time, if ESPN isn't streaming only, it will be not long after. ACC teams might also be willing to buy themselves out. And none of the top ACC teams will consider the BIG12.

Tell me why the BIG12 in 2030 gets another solid TV contract. Especially if the SEC and B1G has all the top names and expands to 24 each. This happens, and the SEC and B1G are the only two power conferences, and the BIG12 becomes a top Group of Conference.

Short term, the BIG12 may look like a decent option. But long term? They are destined to be a distant 3rd "power conference" at best. Maybe even 4th if top ACC and PAC teams merge.

I just don’t follow this at all. Arizona joining Big-12 in 2024-2030 doesn’t exclude Arizona from joining Big10 or SEC in 2031. ACC teams are screwed, the only way out of their deal through 2036 is disbanding ($50 million exit fee) and then there will be major splits between Big10/SEC/Big12. No guarantee that the majority would even join PAC-12. Big-12 has positioned itself to be the 3rd conference because it has shown capable leadership. ACC and PAC-12 conferences don’t have good options. PAC-12 can’t even afford paying the mountain west $34 million exit fee.

Also, and I can’t stress this point enough, how the heck can anyone have confidence that PAC-12 conference would make any good choice?

It doesn't. But there is still the $100million permanent buyout

If you scroll down to the section entitled, "What about the BIG 12" you'll see an explanation of the conference bylaws. (https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/ ... 048313002/) Basically, it is a 99 year deal, ending in 2111, where schools notify at least 18 months out they're leaving, pay 2 years worth of fees back to the conference, and forfeit the final 18 months of payouts. For Texas and Oklahoma, this sum was about $80 million, which they negotiated down to $50 million.

If CU and the Arizona schools sign a similar GOR for the BIG12, the current payout would be $62 million, and we'd be forced to forfeit an additional $46 million. Buyouts that are north of $100 million are why ACC are stuck.

Assuming we sign with the BIG12 under similar conditions, the buyout stops us from leaving in 2030. Heck, even $50 million would be very difficult for us to swing.

We better be sure there will never be any better options for us before we sign with the BIG12. Unless the BIG12 folds in the future, we may never be able to afford to leave, assuming we agree to similar terms as all the other schools. We better hope a distant 3rd place conference at best is then good enough in the future.

I don't get why ACF2 and PHXCATS just can't swallow their words and admit that the conference is imploding as the majority of us have been predicting for over a year now. They keep changing their stance ever so slightly each time there is movement towards the PAC12 (10, soon to be 9) falling apart but, they refuse to admit being totally wrong with the way things would shake out. Freaking own it you two. Just admit that you were wrong now and avoid the humiliation of having defended something that was never going to happen (kind of like an SEC or B1G invite).

Basketcats wrote: Thu Jul 27, 2023 7:20 am I don't get why ACF2 and PHXCATS just can't swallow their words and admit that the conference is imploding as the majority of us have been predicting for over a year now. They keep changing their stance ever so slightly each time there is movement towards the PAC12 (10, soon to be 9) falling apart but, they refuse to admit being totally wrong with the way things would shake out. Freaking own it you two. Just admit that you were wrong now and avoid the humiliation of having defended something that was never going to happen (kind of like an SEC or B1G invite).

Phxcats is busy battling the dumb little dick loser fans who use logic and reason and disagree with the stance he’s dug his heels in on because it’s better to be hated than right on the internet.

Right. So PHX and ACF2, what’s the best option? Stay in the PAC/MWC (essentially a G5) until B1G or SEC come crawling to us? Even if you think that will happen…it won’t be for 7 more years….so go to a G5 for 7 years and then HOPE to get a half share of big brother money?

This is getting laughable.

CardiacCats97 wrote: Thu Jul 27, 2023 7:45 am

Basketcats wrote: Thu Jul 27, 2023 7:20 am I don't get why ACF2 and PHXCATS just can't swallow their words and admit that the conference is imploding as the majority of us have been predicting for over a year now. They keep changing their stance ever so slightly each time there is movement towards the PAC12 (10, soon to be 9) falling apart but, they refuse to admit being totally wrong with the way things would shake out. Freaking own it you two. Just admit that you were wrong now and avoid the humiliation of having defended something that was never going to happen (kind of like an SEC or B1G invite).

Phxcats is busy battling the dumb little dick loser fans who use logic and reason and disagree with the stance he’s dug his heels in on because it’s better to be hated than right on the internet.

Yup

Basketcats wrote: Thu Jul 27, 2023 7:20 am I don't get why ACF2 and PHXCATS just can't swallow their words and admit that the conference is imploding as the majority of us have been predicting for over a year now. They keep changing their stance ever so slightly each time there is movement towards the PAC12 (10, soon to be 9) falling apart but, they refuse to admit being totally wrong with the way things would shake out. Freaking own it you two. Just admit that you were wrong now and avoid the humiliation of having defended something that was never going to happen (kind of like an SEC or B1G invite).

What is there to own? My thoughts about why there needs to be long term thought before a move? Remember how I always said if shirt and long term the Big 12 is best do it?

IndianaZonaFan wrote: Thu Jul 27, 2023 7:50 am Right. So PHX and ACF2, what’s the best option? Stay in the PAC/MWC (essentially a G5) until B1G or SEC come crawling to us? Even if you think that will happen…it won’t be for 7 more years….so go to a G5 for 7 years and then HOPE to get a half share of big brother money?

This is getting laughable.

I would feel a hell of a lot better if the $100Million buyout was waived to join the Big 12

Here is the question no one is asking

How many more teams does fox and espn need for the late windows. They have 2 currently if Colorado leaves (BYU). How many more do they want? Probably another 4-6

PHXCATS wrote: Thu Jul 27, 2023 8:48 am Here is the question no one is asking

How many more teams does fox and espn need for the late windows. They have 2 currently if Colorado leaves (BYU). How many more do they want? Probably another 4-6

I really don’t understand your point.

Fox has UCLA and USC. Fox and ESPN has Colorado and BYU. Fox could also easily add Oregon and Washington at anytime. Also, technically Fox also has 23 mountain west games. ESPN will likely get a junk deal (ESPN can’t afford much at the moment) with the remaining PAC-12.