Bear Down Wildcats

Marcus Smart

I’m i the only one who keeps reading “ FLIP” instead of “FILIP”?

IndianaZonaFan wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:50 am Marcus Smart

Good one, Indiana. Forgot about him.

I was focusing only on players from teams that won national titles. If we open this up to a wider pool, I'm assuming the list grows considerably.

Again, this turn in the thread started because I suggested AZ has had worse luck with guys leaving early than other elite programs, like UNC, Kansas, and Kentucky. Spiff pointed out, accurately, that we had RHJ and Nick Johnson and Trier stay at AZ when they likely could've left a year early. So it's not as though we've *never* kept our guy or guys for another year. And then the larger context for this is Koloko's departure. It absolutely makes sense for him to leave, and I respect his decision. But the reality is that he's projected as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick. Could he improve his status by playing another year of college? We'll never know. Would AZ be a national title contender in '23 if Koloko came back? Think so.

Whether UA could compete for an NC in ‘23 should be lower than 10th on the list of pros/cons of going to the NBA for Koloko.

Beachcat97 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:37 am
Gonna throw a few more names out. Not sure these guys would've been lotto picks if they'd come out a year earlier, but they at least would've had a shot at it:

Justin Jackson (UNC)
Terrence Jones (UK)
Kemba Walker (UConn)
Kyle Singler (Duke)
Tyler Hansbrough (UNC)
Brandon Rush (Kansas)

Feel free to argue that these guys would've been lotto picks a year before they *actually* left, but I think they were at least in the conversation. Another thing: all of these guys were projected to be drafted higher than Koloko this year.

My fav game

Jackson - non-draft pick (projected 75th, didn't make an ACC team)
Jones - lotto
Walker - non-draft pick (possibly a late second round, 3rd Team Big East)
Singler - first round, non-lotto
Hansbrough - first round, non-lotto
Rush - non-draft pick (torn ACL)

So, three of these guys returned after getting better feedback than Koloko (Jones, Singler, Hansbrough). And yeah, all three returned because they "wanted to be a part of something special, wanted to win a natty." And then they did that. It would be really nice to have that.

YoDeFoe wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:50 am
My fav game

Jackson - non-draft pick (projected 75th, didn't make an ACC team)
Jones - lotto
Walker - non-draft pick (possibly a late second round, 3rd Team Big East)
Singler - first round, non-lotto
Hansbrough - first round, non-lotto
Rush - non-draft pick (torn ACL)

So, three of these guys returned after getting better feedback than Koloko (Jones, Singler, Hansbrough). And yeah, all three returned because they "wanted to be a part of something special, wanted to win a natty." And then they did that. It would be really nice to have that.

Justin Jackson was a McD'sAA and made the ACC all freshman team. Not sure what you mean. Ended up getting picked 15th after his junior season.

On some of these others, either you have an unbelievable memory or you've found a better resource than I have for this info.

Any way we cut this, the bottom line is that these are guys who returned to school and played a key role in a national championship. What was the ultimate impact of having Trier and RHJ (and any other AZ guys we can come up with) return to school? They improved their draft status, and AZ fell short of the FF.

Beachcat97 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:37 am Gonna throw a few more names out. Not sure these guys would've been lotto picks if they'd come out a year earlier, but they at least would've had a shot at it:

Justin Jackson (UNC)
Terrence Jones (UK)
Kemba Walker (UConn)
Kyle Singler (Duke)
Tyler Hansbrough (UNC)
Brandon Rush (Kansas)

Feel free to argue that these guys would've been lotto picks a year before they *actually* left, but I think they were at least in the conversation. Another thing: all of these guys were projected to be drafted higher than Koloko this year.

I'll lead with Hansbrough...he might be the GOAT in terms of a fantastically productive college player who everyone knew wasn't gonna be much of a pro.

The interesting part of those guys that sticks out to me is how, beyond Kemba, they basically made a collective zero impact in the NBA. Kemba is good proof to me of the sort of NBA scale.

He was a bench player as a freshman, so at 6'1, you can't leave...even with him being highly rated in HS. He became a good starter as a soph, but at 6'1, still not lottery. Junior, he blows up to 24 ppg and hits a massive hot streak to win the Big East tourney and NC, then rides that into the top ten.

Singler, Hansbrough and Jackson all lacked the physical skill to be a major NBA prospect. Jones was a tweener who never shot well enough to be a smallball 4. Rush is interesting in that he's the most physically ready of the group, but was pretty stagnant at KU. He's the closest to one I'd say might have had a lottery chance if he left earlier.

YoDeFoe wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:50 am My fav game

Jackson - non-draft pick (projected 75th, didn't make an ACC team)
Jones - lotto
Walker - non-draft pick (possibly a late second round, 3rd Team Big East)
Singler - first round, non-lotto
Hansbrough - first round, non-lotto
Rush - non-draft pick (torn ACL)

So, three of these guys returned after getting better feedback than Koloko (Jones, Singler, Hansbrough). And yeah, all three returned because they "wanted to be a part of something special, wanted to win a natty." And then they did that. It would be really nice to have that.

As someone who also likes this game, my only caveats are that I don't think Singler got better feedback than Koloko. Even of leading an NC run, he only went early 2nd round.

Jones...I'd wager he returned in part because his weakness was shooting the 3. He shot low 32% as a freshman. If he upped that as a soph, he could have gone lottery. He didn't, so he got drafted 18th.

I remember bugging out when Hansbrough got picked in the lottery. Literally everything about him said he'd do exactly what he did, be a meh rotation player for a bit and be out of the NBA by age 30. Psycho T's ceiling and floor were like 2 inches apart.

Beachcat97 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:59 am

YoDeFoe wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:50 am
My fav game

Jackson - non-draft pick (projected 75th, didn't make an ACC team)
Jones - lotto
Walker - non-draft pick (possibly a late second round, 3rd Team Big East)
Singler - first round, non-lotto
Hansbrough - first round, non-lotto
Rush - non-draft pick (torn ACL)

So, three of these guys returned after getting better feedback than Koloko (Jones, Singler, Hansbrough). And yeah, all three returned because they "wanted to be a part of something special, wanted to win a natty." And then they did that. It would be really nice to have that.

Justin Jackson was a McD'sAA and made the ACC all freshman team. Not sure what you mean. Ended up getting picked 15th after his junior season.

On some of these others, either you have an unbelievable memory or you've found a better resource than I have for this info.

Any way we cut this, the bottom line is that these are guys who returned to school and played a key role in a national championship. What was the ultimate impact of having Trier and RHJ (and any other AZ guys we can come up with) return to school? They improved their draft status, and AZ fell short of the FF.

Not trying to be a thorn for you, genuinely I enjoy thinking back on this (and yes, doing a fair amount of quick research to confirm).

My point on Jackson: He did not make an All ACC team as a sophomore before returning as a junior.

As to Trier and RHJ and others returning... luck still factors, right? Trier returning to pair with Ayton as the most dominant offensive duo in Arizona history (true) gets derailed by the phantom PED test and the FBI debacle. RHJ returns to see Wisconsin go unconscious from three at the Staples Center (that was a fun car ride home). Shit happens.

This season we're getting back a first team all conference player for the first time in more than ten years (shoutout Solomon Hill). During that period we'd only returned Trier and TJ as all conference players (2nd team to 1st team).

I know the loss of CLo and Benn are tough, and Zu limped to the end of the season, but returning a first team all conference player and the two best 6th men in the conference along with our starting PG and SF is huge.

YoDeFoe wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:33 am
I know the loss of CLo and Benn are tough, and Zu limped to the end of the season, but returning a first team all conference player and the two best 6th men in the conference along with our starting PG and SF is huge.

This is great perspective, YDF. The departure of star players just opens the door for others to emerge. I'm expecting big strides from Kriisa, Larsson and Ballo next season. Terry is going to be an all-conference player (again). And who knows what other big fish Tommy's going to reel in this summer.

AZ hoops is exciting af again, and I love it.

Beachcat97 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:37 am

YoDeFoe wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:33 am
I know the loss of CLo and Benn are tough, and Zu limped to the end of the season, but returning a first team all conference player and the two best 6th men in the conference along with our starting PG and SF is huge.

This is great perspective, YDF. The departure of star players just opens the door for others to emerge. I'm expecting big strides from Kriisa, Larsson and Ballo next season. Terry is going to be an all-conference player (again). And who knows what other big fish Tommy's going to reel in this summer.

AZ hoops is exciting af again, and I love it.

Totally agree there and I was trying to come up with some cute metaphor about needing to reap before you can sow again (or you have to prune a plant for it to grow...? I don't know, I'll leave the poetry to Dove).

To your last sentence specifically, do we keep Bal and add Borovicanin if Benn doesn't leave? Do we get the mystery Euro if Koloko doesn't exit? At some point you have to let guys go so that you can bring the next group in. Balancing act of course, and certainly agree (as well all do, I assume) that we've been on the rough end of that balance for too long (i.e. way too much turnover).

YoDeFoe wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:33 am This season we're getting back a first team all conference player for the first time in more than ten years (shoutout Solomon Hill). During that period we'd only returned Trier and TJ as all conference players (2nd team to 1st team).

I know the loss of CLo and Benn are tough, and Zu limped to the end of the season, but returning a first team all conference player and the two best 6th men in the conference along with our starting PG and SF is huge.

To me, this is the real pertinent thing. There may always be a school that outdoes us in a comparison.

For me, the question is, are we doing better or worse than what you generally expect? The answer's no for me.

It was in Benn and Koloko's best interest to go, and they did. The overwhelming majority of time, when it's in a player's best interest to go, by 10 PM, they'll be Audi 5000. But that isn't a death certificate for a program, it's just what you manage for success these days.

Way too early prediction for rotation (assuming no ‘23 reclassifications):

Starters:
Kerr
Terry
Pelle
Secret Euro (assuming a commit soon)
Tubelis

Bench:
Ballo
Bal
Filip
<insert transfer guard>

Garbage time:
Anderson
Nowell
Tubelis

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:31 am

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 8:32 pm Tyger's issue is his size. He actually was a much better player as a sophomore because he was a consistent shooter. Could lay off of him as a freshman. But not last year. But at a listed 5' 11", Tyger will always have an issue guarding larger guards.

Zuzang is a fine college player. But his ceiling is end of the bench NBA. Just not an elite athlete, elite shooter, elite rebounder or elite defender. And you need to be elite in at least one to play in the NBA. Mathurin is an elite athlete. Koloko is an elite rim defender, which gives them a chance at success at the next level.

Tyger is small but not super quick or a great shooter. To be a real pro prospect at his size, you need to offset your size with speed and shooting, but he doesn't.

You almost never build the returning core beachcat talks about by guys turning down the NBA. You build that core by the NBA turning down your guys.

The guys who are returning are doing it because their stock is low second round or UDFA, not because they're really hardcore committed to college. Like I said above, name me the last guy anywhere who got a lottery grade and returned.

Tim Duncan?

Wasn't their a pair from a Florida final four team (champion?) that came back to try for a repeat?

RichardCranium wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 3:06 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:31 am

AzCatFan2 wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 8:32 pm Tyger's issue is his size. He actually was a much better player as a sophomore because he was a consistent shooter. Could lay off of him as a freshman. But not last year. But at a listed 5' 11", Tyger will always have an issue guarding larger guards.

Zuzang is a fine college player. But his ceiling is end of the bench NBA. Just not an elite athlete, elite shooter, elite rebounder or elite defender. And you need to be elite in at least one to play in the NBA. Mathurin is an elite athlete. Koloko is an elite rim defender, which gives them a chance at success at the next level.

Tyger is small but not super quick or a great shooter. To be a real pro prospect at his size, you need to offset your size with speed and shooting, but he doesn't.

You almost never build the returning core beachcat talks about by guys turning down the NBA. You build that core by the NBA turning down your guys.

The guys who are returning are doing it because their stock is low second round or UDFA, not because they're really hardcore committed to college. Like I said above, name me the last guy anywhere who got a lottery grade and returned.

Tim Duncan?

Wasn't their a pair from a Florida final four team (champion?) that came back to try for a repeat?

Florida returned their complete starting five and repeated. Then sent all five to the draft: Al Horford (third), Corey Brewer (seventh) and Joakim Noah (ninth). Taurean Green and Chris Richard were both selected in the second round.

IndianaZonaFan wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:31 pm Way too early prediction for rotation (assuming no ‘23 reclassifications):

Starters:
Kerr
Terry
Pelle
Secret Euro (assuming a commit soon)
Tubelis

Bench:
Ballo
Bal
Filip
<insert transfer guard>

Garbage time:
Anderson
Nowell
Tubelis

Switch the Euro and Zu and I think that's that.

UNC will return their entire team, minus Manek.

Caleb Love wasn't projected as a lotto pick, but probably 1st round. Announced he's coming back today.

Beachcat97 wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:31 pm UNC will return their entire team, minus Manek.

Caleb Love wasn't projected as a lotto pick, but probably 1st round. Announced he's coming back today.

I don't for a second believe that Caleb Love would have gotten drafted in the first round. Low efficiency, high volume, limited BBIQ. Good athlete, good wingspan, looks like a pro player in an empty gym.

But this is who he is: 13 points on 5-of-24 shooting, two assists to four turnovers.

YoDeFoe wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:01 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:31 pm UNC will return their entire team, minus Manek.

Caleb Love wasn't projected as a lotto pick, but probably 1st round. Announced he's coming back today.

I don't for a second believe that Caleb Love would have gotten drafted in the first round. Low efficiency, high volume, limited BBIQ. Good athlete, good wingspan, looks like a pro player in an empty gym.

But this is who he is: 13 points on 5-of-24 shooting, two assists to four turnovers.

He's a significantly less efficient Allonzo Trier in my opinion.

Also, the highest I've seen DT projected in any mock draft is mid-second round.

Beachcat97 wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:15 am Also, the highest I've seen DT projected in any mock draft is mid-second round.

There's a reason why he explicitly reserved the ability to return. Either he hits a GameStop type stock jump or he's gonna return.

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:26 am

Beachcat97 wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:15 am Also, the highest I've seen DT projected in any mock draft is mid-second round.

There's a reason why he explicitly reserved the ability to return. Either he hits a GameStop type stock jump or he's gonna return.

Get input from the pros on what they want to see, talk with Lloyd to discuss a plan to work on said things the pros want to see in the offseason, incorporate the things he's worked on more into the gameplan this year, all sides profit.

Any conjecture on what they might want him to work on past a more consistent J? He defends well, see’s the floor well. Boards well and he gets in the lane. Curious on what kind of feed back he might hear

azcat49 wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:16 am Any conjecture on what they might want him to work on past a more consistent J? He defends well, see’s the floor well. Boards well and he gets in the lane. Curious on what kind of feed back he might hear

I would guess shooting. He's going to get more looks from 3 next season, and if he hits in the low to mid 40%, that would be great for him.

ChooChooCat wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:29 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:26 am

Beachcat97 wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:15 am Also, the highest I've seen DT projected in any mock draft is mid-second round.

There's a reason why he explicitly reserved the ability to return. Either he hits a GameStop type stock jump or he's gonna return.

Get input from the pros on what they want to see, talk with Lloyd to discuss a plan to work on said things the pros want to see in the offseason, incorporate the things he's worked on more into the gameplan this year, all sides profit.

Absolutely. That's why it's not a big worry for me.

The input he gets is likely that he needs to develop his J, get stronger, initiate a little more offense and continue to defend at a high level. Coincidentally, that would be 100% of what I figure Lloyd wants him to do next year too.

DT needs to be more consistent in his shooting. The last 1/3 of last year, he shot very well. But can he show that over a full season? DT also needs another 15 lbs of muscle. Benn has a NBA body, and both Benn and DT are around 6' 7". A few more pounds of muscle and DT will be able to bang a little better, rebound a little better, and finish at the rim better. This is the feedback I expect DT to get from the scouts. That if he comes out this year, mid to late 2nd round. But if he can shoot around 38% and weigh closer to 205 lbs this time next year, should be a guaranteed first rounder.

azcat49 wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:16 am Any conjecture on what they might want him to work on past a more consistent J? He defends well, see’s the floor well. Boards well and he gets in the lane. Curious on what kind of feed back he might hear

He boards ok, only put up 4.8rpg, by contrast Benn averaged a board more per. Provide a bigger impact on offense, boards, and of course show that the end of the year 3 point shooting wasn't a fluke. The guy only put up 8ppg, he's going to need to show he can get offense way more than he did last year. He's going to be the primary offensive weapon next year, so he'll definitely get his shot.

Sounds like he needs to get 15 shots a game. Coming back will be a great opportunity for him.

He is on the perimeter so much that getting offensive rebounds might be tough. They ran BM low often and he probably averaged an offensive rebound a game more than DT. Terry is very capable of elevating his game higher

ChooChooCat wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:47 am

azcat49 wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:16 am Any conjecture on what they might want him to work on past a more consistent J? He defends well, see’s the floor well. Boards well and he gets in the lane. Curious on what kind of feed back he might hear

He boards ok, only put up 4.8rpg, by contrast Benn averaged a board more per. Provide a bigger impact on offense, boards, and of course show that the end of the year 3 point shooting wasn't a fluke. The guy only put up 8ppg, he's going to need to show he can get offense way more than he did last year. He's going to be the primary offensive weapon next year, so he'll definitely get his shot.

I think of him this way. Adding weight helps with defense.

The shooting...he needs to be a good shooter to fit a 3 and D mold. So if he becomes a consistent distance shooter and adds weight, his NBA profile is a pure 3 and D wing.

If he is able to show that he can be more of a creator as well as shoot it, all of a sudden he becomes a potential point forward with a fallback as a 3 and D guy if the creating doesn't translate to the next level.

ChooChooCat wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:47 am

azcat49 wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:16 am Any conjecture on what they might want him to work on past a more consistent J? He defends well, see’s the floor well. Boards well and he gets in the lane. Curious on what kind of feed back he might hear

He boards ok, only put up 4.8rpg, by contrast Benn averaged a board more per. Provide a bigger impact on offense, boards, and of course show that the end of the year 3 point shooting wasn't a fluke. The guy only put up 8ppg, he's going to need to show he can get offense way more than he did last year. He's going to be the primary offensive weapon next year, so he'll definitely get his shot.

Dalen and Benn had the same rebound percentage, same rebounds per 40min. They were the same quality of rebounder - Benn just got 20% more min/g than Dalen. (Pelle FWIW was right there with them on those advanced numbers)

Comparatively, they're with Rawle as our group of good rebounding guards/wings from the last ten years - with Rondae, Stanley, Parrom, Solo standing well above them as elite rebounding guards/wings.

Dalen could stand to be a better offensive rebounder given his length and bounce. Just needs to be a dog for the ball and have the core strength to take the contact. Beyond that it's just his jumper and some leadership / maturity development.

I think DT could stand to tighten up his handles a little bit. He was better as a soph, but he sometimes seemed to struggle dribbling in traffic and appeared a little careless at others.

Shane Nowell officially in the transfer portal now.

As I expected. Hope he lands in a good spot

Nowell should go play for Miller at X

azcat49 wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:23 am Nowell should go play for Miller at X

He didn’t commit to Arizona because of Miller, so doubt it.

I always wondered how he looked in practice, because in the few games he played he seemed disinterested.

ChooChooCat wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:24 am

azcat49 wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:23 am Nowell should go play for Miller at X

He didn’t commit to Arizona because of Miller, so doubt it.

He may not want to do it, but it wouldn't be the worst landing spot for him. Xavier looks to lose 2 wings getting over 30 mpg and one getting 23 mpg. They have 2 wing recruits coming in, but 87 open wing minutes is a lot.

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:32 am

ChooChooCat wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:24 am

azcat49 wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:23 am Nowell should go play for Miller at X

He didn’t commit to Arizona because of Miller, so doubt it.

He may not want to do it, but it wouldn't be the worst landing spot for him. Xavier looks to lose 2 wings getting over 30 mpg and one getting 23 mpg. They have 2 wing recruits coming in, but 87 open wing minutes is a lot.

Sure it depends on his options and if Xavier even wants him. My guess is he ends up back in the state of Washington.

ChooChooCat wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:38 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:32 am

ChooChooCat wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:24 am

azcat49 wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:23 am Nowell should go play for Miller at X

He didn’t commit to Arizona because of Miller, so doubt it.

He may not want to do it, but it wouldn't be the worst landing spot for him. Xavier looks to lose 2 wings getting over 30 mpg and one getting 23 mpg. They have 2 wing recruits coming in, but 87 open wing minutes is a lot.

Sure it depends on his options and if Xavier even wants him. My guess is he ends up back in the state of Washington.

Going home wouldn't be odd either. Certainly UW would seem to have room for a wing too.

seems like a good kid, wish him the best at his next school.

curious if we add one more wing/guard, in addition to the transfer we're likely to land, as a result of this. as of now, we'd have Kerr/Pelle/Terry/Bal/transfer guard/Boro for the 1-3 spots, wouldn't mind one more piece there, particularly in case of the injury bug. even a KJ Lewis reclass to get acclimated to college bball/our system and push Bal & the transfer guard would be appealing if he is interested.

So, possibility of no returning U.S. born scholarship players? Interesting.

How did Pascoe know this over a month ago? He asked bout Nowell going to the portal in the presser

Columbo strikes again.

Jefe wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:00 pm How did Pascoe know this over a month ago? He asked bout Nowell going to the portal in the presser

You didn’t suspect it was a strong possibility?

Jefe wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:00 pm How did Pascoe know this over a month ago? He asked bout Nowell going to the portal in the presser

Premium since we've been talking about it for 2+ months

Columbo steals from Scheer?

I mean his body language was about as bad as could be without actually moping. He looked completely disinterested most of the time

I’d be disinterested too, if I wasn’t seeing the floor.

Postmaster wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:35 pm I’d be disinterested too, if I wasn’t seeing the floor.

That's why we don't want either you or Nowell on the team...

EastCoastCat wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:43 am

Postmaster wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:35 pm I’d be disinterested too, if I wasn’t seeing the floor.

That's why we don't want either you or Nowell on the team...

There'a a give and take here (and I know you're joking with ECC). Yes, you want a player to stay engaged.

The other side is that if Lloyd is committing to more of a developmental approach, it's a meaningful thing that a coaching goal is keeping players engaged. One of the biggest challenges, especially with 18-19 year olds, is keeping engagement and drive without playing time.

PT is the most powerful motivator a player has. When a guy like Nowell is buried and it becomes clear he isn't getting unburied, a coaching staff earns their money by keeping engagement.

I mean, if things shake out where we get a transfer wing and the Euro big...that 6'8 kid we just recruited isn't looking at much PT, and we need to keep his engagement if he has a future here with something other than playing time.

It isn't all on Lloyd by a long shot. I defended Miller with guys like Justin Simon, and it's just a big challenge these days. Maintaining a developmental approach is 10x harder than it was 20 years ago.