Bear Down Wildcats

EastCoastCat wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:45 pm

RondaeShimmy wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:39 pm I'm officially concerned about our half court offense

It's putrid

Well it gives us something to work on before March. This is really not a bad thing if you look at the big picture.

This team is not perfect. Better to learn and correct now than later.

A considerable part of it right now has to do with Arizona just missing wide open shots, layups, bunnies, etc. They're missing easy shots from all over the court currently, which you would think won't last.

But the overarching concern is that Arizona doesn't look like it has any playmakers or threats offensively in the half court (other than Mathurin obviously). That really isn't fixable today or in March.

Opposing teams can deploy the wall in transition to get Arizona into the half court game and then clog the paint because Arizona doesn't have the outside threat to make you pay consistently.

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:52 pm Anyone think we have a chance on Thursday?

I think we win going away.

Hopefully Zu is 100% by Thursday

Rondae- we have two 7 footers that are pretty dang good.

half court O is fine.

as the other guy said just missing shots.

every season has a spell like this and ours just so happened to come during a stretch where we play UCLA twice.

if we don't win Thursday I think our youngins figure it out when we get to Vegas.

wouldn't be surprised if we lose again Thursday.

azgreg wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:05 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:52 pm Anyone think we have a chance on Thursday?

I think we win going away.

Did we watch the same game today?

I won’t rehash what others have said about our offensive woes. Just seems like other teams have figured out how to defend us, now that we’re halfway into the season and coaches have much better video to analyze.

Hopefully Lloyd silences the doubters next week!

This team has made a living off of making the extra pass… not settling for good shots but finding the right guy for the great shot.

I saw none of that today.

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:28 pm

azgreg wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:05 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:52 pm Anyone think we have a chance on Thursday?

I think we win going away.

Did we watch the same game today?

I won’t rehash what others have said about our offensive woes. Just seems like other teams have figured out how to defend us, now that we’re halfway into the season and coaches have much better video to analyze.

Hopefully Lloyd silences the doubters next week!

Just a feeling. Might be gas though.

yeah you have to realize even though they've been home a few days they just finished up a 3 game road stretch and maybe they are looking ahead a little bit. So they come out flat. Kind of a trap game.

One thing good is ASU seemed to have taken notice of UCLA's approach and really this game was probably good preparation for UCLA. Physical, lots of collapsing, etc.

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:52 pm Anyone think we have a chance on Thursday?

Realistically, UCLA has got to be favored. Now that teams know the UA's weaknesses, it's really going to be hard to adjust. Hopefully Lloyd is up to the task.

Hope he gives them Sunday and Monday off and they go light on Tuesday as well. Just make some adjustments from last weeks game. Get our legs back under us and let Zu rest that ankle more

azcat49 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 4:13 pm Hope he gives them Sunday and Monday off and they go light on Tuesday as well. Just make some adjustments from last weeks game. Get our legs back under us and let Zu rest that ankle more

Article in today's AZ Star, Lloyd said the team got back to Tucson around 3 AM Wednesday. So not much turnaround time for the players. Hopefully will be a lot sharper with a normal schedule.

We need to be tougher to beat a team like ucla. I couldn’t believe it when Campbell just started taking the ball out of Kriisa’s hands. It showed me which player was mentally stronger.

Here’s hoping we can get some mojo back for Thursday, but this team isn’t inspiring confidence right now.

RondaeShimmy wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:57 pm

EastCoastCat wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:45 pm

RondaeShimmy wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:39 pm I'm officially concerned about our half court offense

It's putrid

Well it gives us something to work on before March. This is really not a bad thing if you look at the big picture.

This team is not perfect. Better to learn and correct now than later.

A considerable part of it right now has to do with Arizona just missing wide open shots, layups, bunnies, etc. They're missing easy shots from all over the court currently, which you would think won't last.

But the overarching concern is that Arizona doesn't look like it has any playmakers or threats offensively in the half court (other than Mathurin obviously). That really isn't fixable today or in March.

Opposing teams can deploy the wall in transition to get Arizona into the half court game and then clog the paint because Arizona doesn't have the outside threat to make you pay consistently.

Wrong. You are assuming the sky is falling and issue’s can’t be fixed.

No team will ever have a perfect season. Why do you think it hasn’t been done in 47 years?

So, we just came off an ugly loss (on the road, to a highly ranked veteran team) followed by an ugly win at home. We are 17-2, which is much better than I would have thought at the start of the season. So I am happy.

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:52 pm Anyone think we have a chance on Thursday?

Nope. We just don't match up well with UCLA and they've owned us for the last several years. I think Cronin is a better in game adjustment coach than Lloyd as well. To be honest, UCLA is just tougher than we are at this point. I think we will play better than the first game but UCLA still wins with relative ease. 75-65 Bruins.

The half court offense looks a lot better if Kerr shoots better than 10%

Captain Obvious wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 5:07 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:52 pm Anyone think we have a chance on Thursday?

Nope. We just don't match up well with UCLA and they've owned us for the last several years. I think Cronin is a better in game adjustment coach than Lloyd as well. To be honest, UCLA is just tougher than we are at this point. I think we will play better than the first game but UCLA still wins with relative ease. 75-65 Bruins.

Ugh…that’s a deflating post.

Need someone to tell me why we’re going to win on Thursday because conceding defeat in a game this big is just a really tough pill. We can beat them, right?

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:34 pm

Captain Obvious wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 5:07 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:52 pm Anyone think we have a chance on Thursday?

Nope. We just don't match up well with UCLA and they've owned us for the last several years. I think Cronin is a better in game adjustment coach than Lloyd as well. To be honest, UCLA is just tougher than we are at this point. I think we will play better than the first game but UCLA still wins with relative ease. 75-65 Bruins.

Ugh…that’s a deflating post.

Need someone to tell me why we’re going to win on Thursday because conceding defeat in a game this big is just a really tough pill. We can beat them, right?

Well, your first problem was in actually listening to anything Corporal Oblivious posts. Of course we can win -- just no by shooting 0-13 3s in a half. Hit a few early, and the defense will have to extend a bit and not just collapse on our bigs. Corporal gloom and doom isn't someone you want to listen to.

Captain Obvious wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 5:07 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:52 pm Anyone think we have a chance on Thursday?

Nope. We just don't match up well with UCLA and they've owned us for the last several years. I think Cronin is a better in game adjustment coach than Lloyd as well. To be honest, UCLA is just tougher than we are at this point. I think we will play better than the first game but UCLA still wins with relative ease. 75-65 Bruins.

You might want to pump the brakes on anointing Cronin the master of in game adjustments. I strongly believe our starting five is stronger than theirs, and when we shoot even close to what we're capable of, the Bruins will have more than their hands full.

Tennessee's defense is better than UCLA's, the big difference is UCLA has more talent across the board than they do. You can't come out flat against top competition, and you can't forget the things that put you in a top position to begin with. It all starts with defense (the aggressive variety) and ball movement. Poor shooting happens but we need to have more than one gameplan to counter schemes that will disrupt our offense. Hopefully, the players will sense the urgency and will be dialed in this week.

We played our worse game of the year in LA against a top 10 team and was within 8 with 8 minutes to play. I like Arizona Thursday night.

azgreg wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:59 pm We played our worse game of the year in LA against a top 10 team and was within 8 with 8 minutes to play. I like Arizona Thursday night.

Love where your head’s at, azgreg!

I’m curious to see how Kriisa comes out Thursday night. As the season has worn on, his play has become a much larger factor in our wins and losses, especially with Tubelis not being 100%.

I don't want to turn this into a mask thing, as I'm vaxxed and wear a mask as requested indoors, and anybody else can do whatever the hell they want. But I thought it was bad optics for UofA to have ushers holding up the same kind of signs that say "quiet please" at a golf tournament, only they said "mask up, please." That would've be okay with me if they were all through McKale and that was the normal thing. But there were only two of them, and they were on either side of the sideline TV position for the CBS announcers when the lights and cameras pointed at them. So I guess it's like the old SNL Billy Crystal/Fernando Lamas thing: "it's better to look good than to feel good." My other observations are that I counted fewer than 10 baby-shit yellow shirts (not counting ASU ball-boy types) at the game. Maybe there were about as many of the more low-profile brown shirts, but those are harder to pick out. And the final things are that, yes, we're obviously in a shooting slump, no, you're not going to always be able to run-and-gun against better defensive and rebounding teams, and no, it isn't easy to just push a button and run somebody out of a building to make your fans happy, especially when you're tired coming off a ridiculous road trip, and your opponent is terrified and doing everything they can to prevent that as their big moral victory. Ws are great; Ws against ASU are even better, and while we need to work on some things, I'm pretty satisfied.

Captain Obvious wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 5:07 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:52 pm Anyone think we have a chance on Thursday?

Nope. We just don't match up well with UCLA and they've owned us for the last several years. I think Cronin is a better in game adjustment coach than Lloyd as well. To be honest, UCLA is just tougher than we are at this point. I think we will play better than the first game but UCLA still wins with relative ease. 75-65 Bruins.

So Capt since Cronin is so good at making in game adjustments why hasn't he beat his rival in two years and just beat Stanford for the first time ever last night? The difference between Az. and UCLA is mainly experience. Arizona has about the 5th youngest team in division 1 and that will be a factor for awhile. We will get better the more we see different styles and how to adjust to those styles. Oh and one other thing. UCLA is really good.

So our game with USC has yet to be rescheduled and I think that it’s timing could pose an issue.

If we were tired coming off the last three game trip then having a three game trip right before the PAC tourney would be very tough.

I haven’t looked at the schedule but it seems like there is not an optimal time to fit it in. It may put us in a competitive disadvantage in my mind

These next 2 games against the LA schools at home will be really telling if our recent play was just a blip or something more revealing about this team.

EastCoastCat wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:37 am These next 2 games against the LA schools at home will be really telling if our recent play was just a blip or something more revealing about this team.

This will be the narrative surrounding AZ this week.

Probably a huge part of this lull is that this team isn't conditioned to be playing this fast all game long. This happening mid season would explain it.

It's usually something that you get better with a couple of years of conditioning. I mean they weren't exactly accustomed to pushing the pace all the time, full court pressure and so on.

Things that scream fatigue is missing bunnies, not jumping for rebounds, missing easy layins, shots that look they don't have any legs underneath them etc etc etc.

I think we will play 5 games in 10 days and that Washington road trip now looks very difficult

azcat49 wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:18 am I think we will play 5 games in 10 days and that Washington road trip now looks very difficult

The only good thing is that the travel won't be as bad. We play the LA schools at home, then go to Tempe, return home for a couple of days and then head to Pullman.

Beachcat97 wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:34 am My projection for the remainder of the season (wins in bold):

vs SAC
vs WASH
@ ORST
vs WYO
@ 14 ILL
vs UNCO
vs CBU
@ 15 TENN
@ 2 UCLA
@ 24 USC
@ ASU
vs COLO
vs UTAH
@ STAN
@ CAL
vs ASU
vs 2 UCLA
vs 24 USC
@ WSU
@ WASH
vs ORST
vs ORE
@ UTAH
@ COLO
vs STAN
vs CAL

Thought I'd take a look at what I predicted back in November. So far, pretty close. Obviously the schedule has looked different due to game postponements/cancellations. Still think we sweep the Washington road trip and drop one on the road to Colorado.

Oh, and not that it needs to be pointed out, but Thursday is sort of the Pac 12 reg season championship game.

RondaeShimmy wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:57 pm

EastCoastCat wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:45 pm

RondaeShimmy wrote: Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:39 pm I'm officially concerned about our half court offense

It's putrid

Well it gives us something to work on before March. This is really not a bad thing if you look at the big picture.

This team is not perfect. Better to learn and correct now than later.

A considerable part of it right now has to do with Arizona just missing wide open shots, layups, bunnies, etc. They're missing easy shots from all over the court currently, which you would think won't last.

But the overarching concern is that Arizona doesn't look like it has any playmakers or threats offensively in the half court (other than Mathurin obviously). That really isn't fixable today or in March.

Opposing teams can deploy the wall in transition to get Arizona into the half court game and then clog the paint because Arizona doesn't have the outside threat to make you pay consistently.

It's a mix of both, IMO. We generated makeable shots for the most part and just didn't make them. Kerr got several open 3 looks, but right now he's shooting poorly. Same with Benn.

The flip side is I think it's true opponents realize transition and getting lanes to the rim are our bread and butter and that if you can get us out of that, cold nights make us vulnerable. Now, this is true of every team to some extent, but we have a few guys who need to be shooting it to make plays. I'd put Kerr, Terry, Pelle and Kier in this category...as you say, basically everyone but Mathurin.

It's a test for Lloyd too. His base scheme is good, but the big test is what you do when opponents begin taking away the base. Every base scheme in big time CBB is sound, but good (or in ASU's case, not good) opponents force you out of it.

Getting shooting back will help. I would also like if we'd push a heavier diet of cross screens for Tubelis to get interior looks for him on the move. He's by far our most efficient non-perimeter option and when shots aren't falling, the most efficient, period.

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:08 am
Getting shooting back will help. I would also like if we'd push a heavier diet of cross screens for Tubelis to get interior looks for him on the move. He's by far our most efficient non-perimeter option and when shots aren't falling, the most efficient, period.

Which is why it's no coincidence that our recent struggles have come as he's been injured.

End of January (19 games) Player Efficiency Ratings (minimum 95 minutes played) - Arizona:

29.7 Christian Koloko
28.1 Oumar Ballo
25.4 Azoulas Tubelis
23.5 Kim Aiken Jr.
20.7 Bennedict Mathurin
15.1 Justin Kier
15.1 Dalen Terry
15.0 ••••••••••Average D1 player••••••••••••
14.2 Pelle Larsson
12.9 Kerr Krissa

It should be fairly apparent where the strengths, and the weaknesses, of this team lie.

Beachcat97 wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:17 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:08 am
Getting shooting back will help. I would also like if we'd push a heavier diet of cross screens for Tubelis to get interior looks for him on the move. He's by far our most efficient non-perimeter option and when shots aren't falling, the most efficient, period.

Which is why it's no coincidence that our recent struggles have come as he's been injured.

Yes and no. The shooting has not been good, and that is a big factor. Add in that we seems to essentially be betting more on shooting improving than any adjustments and I think that's where we are.

KaibabKat wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:24 am End of January (19 games) Player Efficiency Ratings (minimum 95 minutes played) - Arizona:

29.7 Christian Koloko
28.1 Oumar Ballo
25.4 Azoulas Tubelis
23.5 Kim Aiken Jr.
20.7 Bennedict Mathurin
15.1 Justin Kier
15.1 Dalen Terry
15.0 ••••••••••Average D1 player••••••••••••
14.2 Pelle Larsson
12.9 Kerr Krissa

It should be fairly apparent where the strengths, and the weaknesses, of this team lie.

Man, this is about as good an argument I've seen for getting our bigs more touches.

Beachcat97 wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:31 am

KaibabKat wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:24 am End of January (19 games) Player Efficiency Ratings (minimum 95 minutes played) - Arizona:

29.7 Christian Koloko
28.1 Oumar Ballo
25.4 Azoulas Tubelis
23.5 Kim Aiken Jr.
20.7 Bennedict Mathurin
15.1 Justin Kier
15.1 Dalen Terry
15.0 ••••••••••Average D1 player••••••••••••
14.2 Pelle Larsson
12.9 Kerr Krissa

It should be fairly apparent where the strengths, and the weaknesses, of this team lie.

Man, this is about as good an argument I've seen for getting our bigs more touches.

PER tends to benefit bigs, especially the type we have where they do a lot of catching and finishing.

The biggest criticism(s) of PER is overvaluing rebounds and high shooting % from rim runners. Like a 25 PER in the NBA is supposed to be approaching MVP level. Clint Capela has been just shy of that a few times because all he does is rebound and catch lobs and rolls, but you'd get laughed at if you mentioned him as approaching MVP level play.

There will be criticisms of any ranking system. PER, or Bird Scores, are just about as fair as it gets, IMO, when ranking players regardless of position. Bigs may get more rebounds but guards get more assists and steals as a rule.

Beachcat97 wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:31 am

KaibabKat wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:24 am End of January (19 games) Player Efficiency Ratings (minimum 95 minutes played) - Arizona:

29.7 Christian Koloko
28.1 Oumar Ballo
25.4 Azoulas Tubelis
23.5 Kim Aiken Jr.
20.7 Bennedict Mathurin
15.1 Justin Kier
15.1 Dalen Terry
15.0 ••••••••••Average D1 player••••••••••••
14.2 Pelle Larsson
12.9 Kerr Krissa

It should be fairly apparent where the strengths, and the weaknesses, of this team lie.

Man, this is about as good an argument I've seen for getting our bigs more touches.

KaibabKat wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 10:55 am There will be criticisms of any ranking system. PER, or Bird Scores, are just about as fair as it gets, IMO, when ranking players regardless of position. Bigs may get more rebounds but guards get more assists and steals as a rule.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not hating on your post. I appreciate the stat discussions and you're correct every stat has criticisms.

PER is notable in that every player in the top 10 in CBB is a PF or C. I'm not saying it isn't an important stat, just that I do tend to think pf/c is a bit of a different scale from perimeter, especially in CBB.

To edit for clarification, I meant most of my comment also regarding Beachcat saying we should go inside more. I tend to think PER is less accurate in that context as it rewards finishing and rebounding more than initiation.

azgreg wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:57 am

Still feel like our NET ranking is inflated at the moment, considering our small number of good wins relative to other teams in the top 10. Going 2-0 this week would virtually guarantee a protected seed. Losing to UCLA means a #1 seed isn't happening.

azcat49 wrote: Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:33 amSo our game with USC has yet to be rescheduled and I think that it’s timing could pose an issue.

I haven’t looked at the schedule but it seems like there is not an optimal time to fit it in. It may put us in a competitive disadvantage in my mind

Feb 14, Feb 28, or March 7 are the only dates that could work.

We both play March 5 and the P12 tourney starts March 9 but we both should have buys into round 2

Katz has Oregon and USC ranked appropriately, imo.

AZ really needs to show up this week and prove they're a top 10 team.

random thought but I'm thinking perhaps the high ankle sprain with AT could be gamesmanship from Lloyd? I'm hoping.

Maybe he's exaggerating?