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We'll either be the 1 or 2 in the West, unless we really stink it up over the next month.Irish27 wrote: Fri Feb 09, 2024 2:39 pm Cats #1 seed in the West.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... redictions
Houston’s best win so far is BYU. They’ve gotten rich this season by avoiding bad losses. Kansas destroyed them.Alieberman wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 8:52 am As of right now Purdue, UConn and Houston are in the top tier by themselves.
Tier 2:
Arizona
North Carolina
Tennessee
Marquette
Kansas
Those are your top 2 seeds and only a couple other teams seem like they even have a shot of breaking into that 2nd tier (Alabama, Baylor, Iowa St, Duke, Auburn)
We need to know how predictive Q1 record has been for teams reaching the FF and/or E8. On the surface, this looks like an excellent metric, but I’m unsure.Alieberman wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 9:20 am I’ve watched Houston play this year… they are the real deal. (Also they are 7-3 in quad 1... so it's not just about beating BYU!)
I also said as of right now those 3 teams are clearly in a class by themselves… but there is still time for that to change
Houston is not an elite offensive team. They slow you down, impose their style of play for most of the game, and usually shoot well enough to win. But KU is indeed an elite offensive team, and on their best night, not even a defense like Houston can do very much.U.P. Zona Fan wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:30 am Yeah, the same way you beat anyone this year, shoot 75% at home. It's how we've lost too.
On the defensive end, sure, but watching their offense is like pouring hot sauce in your eyes.Alieberman wrote: Sun Feb 11, 2024 9:43 am FYI- Feb 17th- in 1 week- The selection committee puts out their first top 16 teams... so we will know exactly where we stand
A dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.Alieberman wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:42 am And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas
Seth Davis bad-mouthed the UA predicting we won't be a #1 seed at tourney time due to not playing any more Quad 1 teams.Alieberman wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:42 am And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas
Good thing that means nothing this yearpc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:49 amA dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.Alieberman wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:42 am And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas
If you said EVERY year, you’d have a point.pc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:49 amA dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.Alieberman wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:42 am And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas
It "means" be cautiously optimistic, at most...PHXCATS wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:59 amGood thing that means nothing this yearpc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:49 amA dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.Alieberman wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:42 am And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas
College basketball power rankings: UConn and Purdue lead our tiers of contenders
We say this with about as little confidence as possible, and it almost feels like we ought to whisper it, but here goes: Maybe a pecking order is finally beginning to take shape within this off-the-rails college basketball season?
At the very least, two teams have risen above the rest. Then there’s a sizable selection of squads that look great on a given night and god-awful the next. Some are just solidly built, so their floor is high but their ceiling is low. Others (ahem, Kentucky) feature tantalizing talent but an infuriating lack of focus. We see sleepers and Cinderellas just waiting for their moment.
Tiers, in other words. It’s that time for the Power Rankings, so we’ll scrap our usual format – slotting 16 teams in order, with the last spot reserved for a plucky mid-major – and opine a little more broadly about the top teams this week, lumping them together in groups that fit these neat little boxes we’ve created.
Tier 1: The Favorites
- Connecticut (23-2)
- Purdue (22-2)
We agree Connecticut and Purdue belong here in a league of their own, but we differ on which one of them is the better team. They both own a top-three offense with a top-20 defense. The Huskies are 8-1 in Quad 1 games, the Boilermakers 8-2.
Tier 2: The Contenders
- Houston (21-3)
- Kansas (19-6)
- North Carolina (19-6)
- Tennessee (18-6)
“bUt aLl tHeSe tEaMs jUsT lOsT!” Correct. They did — but they’re also all still capable of cutting down the nets come April.
Tier 3: Fun But Flawed
- Arizona (19-5)
- Kentucky (17-7)
- Marquette (19-5)
The teams in this tier are not all the same. We buy Arizona and Marquette way more at the moment than we do Kentucky.
Our reservations about Arizona and Marquette are more of the “yeah, but” variety.
Arizona has won five straight, including consecutive road wins at Utah and Colorado, to take control of the Pac-12. Tommy Lloyd’s team has a top-five offense and a top-15 defense and some nice nonconference wins: at Duke, Michigan State (neutral), Wisconsin and Alabama. But take a peek at the Wildcats’ 3-point percentage defense. It ranks 249th. Eight opponents have made 10-plus 3s against Arizona, and three of its losses came when the other side made 42 percent or better from deep: Purdue hit 10 of 24, Oregon State 12 of 20, Stanford 16 of 25. The Utes nearly followed that formula to victory, hitting 11 of 29 in a triple-overtime loss to the Wildcats. There’s been some recent improvement, but back in January, Lloyd bemoaned the fact that “our guards have been getting their a—- kicked in these games defensively.” For Caleb Love, Kylan Boswell, Pelle Larsson and company, the mission for March is simple: guard the perimeter or perish.
Tier 4: Solid, not spectacular
- Alabama (17-7)
- Auburn (20-5)
- Duke (19-5)
- Illinois (18-6)
- Iowa State (19-5)
That fact from last year was highly unusual.Chicat wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 11:24 amIf you said EVERY year, you’d have a point.pc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:49 amA dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.Alieberman wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 10:42 am And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas
Ken Pomeroy — the creator of advanced statistics site KenPom.com — analyzes the college basketball landscape for a living. And his takeaway, watching this season so far?
“It’s probably, compared to the last 25 years, maybe a little more wide open than average,” Pomeroy says. “Last year seemed like it was the pinnacle of parity, and I think we’re not quite as wide open as we were last year.”
It would be hard to top last season’s parity … but the fact that it’s anywhere close is still saying something. Remember: A record 54 teams cycled through the AP Top 25 last season, foreshadowing one of the most unpredictable NCAA Tournaments we’ve ever seen. For the second time in history, a No. 1 seed — in this case, Purdue, led by 7-foot-4 National Player of the Year Zach Edey — lost to a No. 16 seed (Fairleigh Dickinson). All four No. 1 seeds were eliminated before the Final Four for only the third time ever … and none even made the Elite Eight, a first. Three programs — Miami, San Diego State, and Florida Atlantic — instead made their first Final Four appearances, and the four finalists’ combined seeds were the second-highest on record.
As for this season? Already, 47 different teams have appeared in the AP poll, with over a month until Selection Sunday. And perhaps most notably, top-10 teams are just 32-33 on the road against unranked foes, easily the worst win percentage in those scenarios in the modern era. (That dates back to the 1984-85 season, when the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams.) Marquette, Arizona and Kansas — the No. 4, 5, and 6 teams in this week’s poll — have lost three such games each. And after last weekend, when Illinois and Tennessee became the latest top-10 teams to join the trend, those 33 losses already stand as the most ever in a season in those situations.
But what happened vs. Stanford and OSU...the damage could've been mitigated with smarter defense, no? OSU is dead last in the pac and made TWELVE 3s against us. If we give up that many 3s in the tourney, we're done.U.P. Zona Fan wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 1:09 pm Sometimes teams just get hot, we have been the beneficiary of some of those games.
UNC will lose 2 more timesIrish27 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 12:31 pm #2 in the West.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/
247 Sports has North Carolina taking over the number 1 seed from Arizona. I concur.U.P. Zona Fan wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 9:01 pm Field of 68 consensus bracket still has us as a 1 seed.
The team that has lost 3 of their last 6 games? Really, I don't think so. 10 in KenPom & the NET rankingsCaptain Obvious wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:59 pm247 Sports has North Carolina taking over the number 1 seed from Arizona. I concur.U.P. Zona Fan wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 9:01 pm Field of 68 consensus bracket still has us as a 1 seed.
Captain Obvious wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:59 pm247 Sports has North Carolina taking over the number 1 seed from Arizona. I concur.U.P. Zona Fan wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 9:01 pm Field of 68 consensus bracket still has us as a 1 seed.
Sorry, what now?TheCat wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:35 am 3 number ones lost last week. One lost to a non quad one team. One lost by 20 points to a quad 1 team. We lost to a quad 1 team with the nation's longest win streak by 3. Tourney is wide open.
Three potential #1 seeds.threenumberones wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:48 amSorry, what now?TheCat wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 9:35 am 3 number ones lost last week. One lost to a non quad one team. One lost by 20 points to a quad 1 team. We lost to a quad 1 team with the nation's longest win streak by 3. Tourney is wide open.
Easy…. The selection committee determines they deserve itpc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:14 am QUESTION: How does the #2 team in a mediocre conference get rewarded with a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney?
While factually accurate, it explains nothing.Alieberman wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:21 amEasy…. The selection committee determines they deserve itpc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:14 am QUESTION: How does the #2 team in a mediocre conference get rewarded with a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney?
Non conference wins at Duke, neutral vs Michigan State and Alabama and blowing out Wisconsinpc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 12:14 pmWhile factually accurate, it explains nothing.Alieberman wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:21 amEasy…. The selection committee determines they deserve itpc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:14 am QUESTION: How does the #2 team in a mediocre conference get rewarded with a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney?
How does the committee justify the selection?
And, since this is a discussion forum, how about discussing?
Good wins! Yes! But, this is merely a list, and neither an explanation nor a justification.PHXCATS wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 1:37 pmNon conference wins at Duke, neutral vs Michigan State and Alabama and blowing out Wisconsinpc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 12:14 pmWhile factually accurate, it explains nothing.Alieberman wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:21 amEasy…. The selection committee determines they deserve itpc in NM wrote: Sat Feb 24, 2024 11:14 am QUESTION: How does the #2 team in a mediocre conference get rewarded with a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney?
How does the committee justify the selection?
And, since this is a discussion forum, how about discussing?