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Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:29 am
by Beachcat97
RaisingArizona wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:21 am
Plus when Tubelis gets on a roll offensively it's something else. That guy can put up 15-20 points in a blink of an eye.
So true. There were weeks during the Pac season when I would think, who is our MVP, Benn or Tubelis? AT is THAT impactful on offense when he's in rhythm and finding his shots.
One of the most unique strengths of this team is that we do not need to rely on one or two guys to get points. Obviously, we're going to be better off when Benn, CK and AT are rolling, but we have second and third options that can come through when needed. My god, we've even seen Bal chipping the last couple weeks! Kriisa, Terry, Larsson, Ballo, even Kier...they can all get points.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:37 am
by azgreg
Beachcat97 wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:44 am
Okay, I've read all the pregame analysis I'm going to have time for before Thursday. It's prediction time. Would like to see some others.
AZ 70
Houston 65
BTFD!
Good Guys: eleventy hundred
Fighting Sampsons: -7
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:40 am
by CopaCat
To much chit chat about offense in this thread. Offense will not be our problem. It's the D I am worried about. Houston has good guard play and more than 1 guard that can drive the paint. That is the only thing I am worried about after watching our inability to stop penetration at times during the TCU game. We win that game by double digits if our D could stop penetration, it didn't. Houston is even better than TCU in that regard and probably better than any team in the Pac 12 as well. That will be the key to a victory.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:43 am
by RondaeShimmy
If Arizona manages to reach the Final Four, Arizona will have made first time history.
As you can see from below, the chances of Arizona going out in the round of 32 were really high.
http://beardownwildcats.com/viewtopic.p ... 26#p541526
The preseason AP is actually a good indicator of tournament success. Kenpom wrote a blog post a decade ago.
https://kenpom.com/blog/the-preseason-ap-poll-is-great/
You might be surprised to hear this, but I’m a big fan of the pre-season AP poll. There is no doubt poll participants have their biases in the pre-season. They may tend to over-estimate the importance of the previous postseason, especially when a team needed more than its fair share of luck to advance. But otherwise, whatever biases are present are uniquely individual, and in the collection of 70 or so ballots, those biases are cancelled out, leaving a useful signal. The end result is that it provides a better picture of the state of college hoops before the season begins than any single person or algorithm could produce. It’s informed groupthink at its finest.
.......
.......
Why? The preseason mostly ranks the talent and potential overall of the team whereas the regular season poll is just performance week to week.
Consider this year's teams in the S16 and where they were ranked in the preseason.
N°1 Gonzaga
N°2 UCLA
N°3 Kansas
N°4 Villanova
N°6 Michigan
N°7 Purdue
N°9 Duke
N°15 Houston
N°16 Arkansas
N°19 North Carolina
Unranked: Arizona, Texas Tech, Iowa St, Providence, Miami (FL), St Peters
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:56 am
by Longhorned
Seriously, RIP Arizona's 1-seed pressure. Now it's ESPN with the rankings-related history. So many narratives are making Arizona an underdog. As if surviving TCU being down on our final offensive possession of regulation weren't enough to diffuse the pressure.
Tommy Lloyd spoke about having nothing protect, and just being in attack mode. The media is bending over backwards to support him on that.
By the way, Arizona has some pretty unique circumstances that explain being unranked in the preseason. We're hardly in the mold of failures from the past.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:07 pm
by RaisingArizona
RondaeShimmy wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:43 am
Why? The preseason mostly ranks the talent and potential overall of the team whereas the regular season poll is just performance week to week.
The problem with that is Arizona is potentially an outlier in that they might just be the most talented team in the country.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:12 pm
by UAEebs86
RaisingArizona wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:07 pm
RondaeShimmy wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:43 am
Why? The preseason mostly ranks the talent and potential overall of the team whereas the regular season poll is just performance week to week.
The problem with that is Arizona is potentially an outlier in that they might just be the most talented team in the country.
Also, the preseason polls tend to take into account how a team did in the tournament the previous year.
In our case, the UofA President got involved...
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:24 pm
by 97cats
Arizona was supposed to lose to TCU in the round of 32 - i said it as close as i could myself without being a bad fan.
now that AZ has gotten past that hurdle i do not see them losing after regrouping at home with a full week of rest & prep for the Genius.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:25 pm
by EVCat
we're holding teams to 35% shooting in the tournament so far. Since the Stanford debacle in the PAC 1st round, we have held teams to just under 40%, with no wild outliers impacting that (basically, both PAC teams shot 43% and both tournament teams have shot 35%
I am most concerned with turnovers and offensive rebounds. The penetration is resulting in a miss because of our bigs, but the O rebounds for TCU were bread and butter.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:37 pm
by EastCoastCat
CopaCat wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:40 am
To much chit chat about offense in this thread. Offense will not be our problem. It's the D I am worried about. Houston has good guard play and more than 1 guard that can drive the paint. That is the only thing I am worried about after watching our inability to stop penetration at times during the TCU game. We win that game by double digits if our D could stop penetration, it didn't. Houston is even better than TCU in that regard and probably better than any team in the Pac 12 as well. That will be the key to a victory.
I sort of disagree. While I readily admit that strong guard play can doom not only our team but any good team.
The issue against TCU was not so much guard penetration because even when that happened they did not get off easy shots. It was second chance opportunities that kept killing us. TCU shot only 35% on 74 friggin shots. If you think about it they very rarely got easy/open looks and most of the shots were contested. That's all you can ask for. Just clean up the boards and the game looks a lot different.
Effort and good rebounding box out/positioning is what is needed.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:47 pm
by EVCat
EastCoastCat wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:37 pm
I sort of disagree. While I readily admit that strong guard play can doom not only our team but any good team.
The issue against TCU was not so much guard penetration because even when that happened they did not get off easy shots. It was second chance opportunities that kept killing us. TCU shot only 35% on 74 friggin shots. If you think about it they very rarely got easy/open looks and most of the shots were contested. That's all you can ask for. Just clean up the boards and the game looks a lot different.
Effort and good rebounding box out/positioning is what is needed.
Totally agree, as my post right above yours says. But I will say that guard penetration and O boards go hand in hand. It is not an easy thing for a guard to get good box out position off the PNR on a big when our big has to leave to help on D.
There was a lot of talk, even frustration, as to why Miller defenses didn't have a lot of blocked shots. It was a philosophy, as when a big leaves their feet on help D, offensive rebounds are a plague. It's different when it's big on big, but on a switch/help D, when the defensive big goes for the block, it's a runway for the offensive big unless the screened guard can both get through the traffic and get position before the shot.
We HAVE to be better at that. But it is much more difficult, and better perimeter D goes a long way to closing that O rebound hole. We can do things like crash to add help, but then we lose that leak that allows us to score on the break/secondary break/early offense. What is really hurting us is it isn't a big getting beat off the screen...it isn't like Koloko is up there with Lampkin in the TCU game, then hedging and scrambling to get back. Our best shot blocker is sitting low off Lampkin, and we are getting beat off the screen anyway, and Lampkin is getting that free run with no check. That might change if Houston has a big that screens and can shoot from 15 to 18 feet...I don't know that. IF that is the case, the screen defender has to be up in that mix and hedge.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:57 pm
by Beachcat97
97cats wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:24 pm
Arizona was supposed to lose to TCU in the round of 32 - i said it as close as i could myself without being a bad fan.
now that AZ has gotten past that hurdle i do not see them losing after regrouping at home with a full week of rest & prep for the Genius.
Whenever you call him The Genius, this is what comes to mind...
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:16 pm
by RondaeShimmy
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:32 pm
by azcat49
Only team to fail to cover the point spread in both games in the opening weekend and go on to win the tournament is your AZ Wildcats. We have a chance to repeat that
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:44 pm
by 84Cat
Maybe this isn't the right thread but What!
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:15 pm
by CopaCat
EVCat wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:47 pm
EastCoastCat wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 12:37 pm
I sort of disagree. While I readily admit that strong guard play can doom not only our team but any good team.
The issue against TCU was not so much guard penetration because even when that happened they did not get off easy shots. It was second chance opportunities that kept killing us. TCU shot only 35% on 74 friggin shots. If you think about it they very rarely got easy/open looks and most of the shots were contested. That's all you can ask for. Just clean up the boards and the game looks a lot different.
Effort and good rebounding box out/positioning is what is needed.
Totally agree, as my post right above yours says. But I will say that guard penetration and O boards go hand in hand. It is not an easy thing for a guard to get good box out position off the PNR on a big when our big has to leave to help on D.
There was a lot of talk, even frustration, as to why Miller defenses didn't have a lot of blocked shots. It was a philosophy, as when a big leaves their feet on help D, offensive rebounds are a plague. It's different when it's big on big, but on a switch/help D, when the defensive big goes for the block, it's a runway for the offensive big unless the screened guard can both get through the traffic and get position before the shot.
We HAVE to be better at that. But it is much more difficult, and better perimeter D goes a long way to closing that O rebound hole. We can do things like crash to add help, but then we lose that leak that allows us to score on the break/secondary break/early offense. What is really hurting us is it isn't a big getting beat off the screen...it isn't like Koloko is up there with Lampkin in the TCU game, then hedging and scrambling to get back. Our best shot blocker is sitting low off Lampkin, and we are getting beat off the screen anyway, and Lampkin is getting that free run with no check. That might change if Houston has a big that screens and can shoot from 15 to 18 feet...I don't know that. IF that is the case, the screen defender has to be up in that mix and hedge.
The beginning of your post is why I believe penetration is key. If we can limit penetration then offensive rebounds will not be as big of an issue in the 1st place. A very healthy percentage of TCU's success was due to Miles ability to get into the lane. Whether it was offensive rebounds, layups, or kickouts, all due to Miles ability to penetrate our D.
I don't think it was any coincidence we opened up a 9 point lead on TCU after Miles went to the bench. I also don't think it was a coincidence their run started the moment he stepped back on the floor. Miles was their penetration machine.
Houston has a couple. I would put Benn and Terry at the point at all times. Hide Kerr and Larrson as much as possible as they don't have the lateral quickness to deal with quicker guards. In no way am I saying Larrson is a bad defender, just if he has a weakness, it is faster guards.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:29 pm
by RaisingArizona
TCU actually cut into the lead prior to Miles checking back in. If I recall they got it from 9 down to 5.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:37 pm
by prh
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:43 pm
by RondaeShimmy
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:46 pm
by 97cats
fly to Austin tomorrow - cant wait
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:05 pm
by CopaCat
RaisingArizona wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:29 pm
TCU actually cut into the lead prior to Miles checking back in. If I recall they got it from 9 down to 5.
Miles actually left the game with the score at 57-52 Arizona, but did indeed come back in when score was 67-58.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:06 pm
by Siempre Verde
Love this team, but F that chic fulla hate.
Also love that grey zip up, btw.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:11 pm
by jajoyce
Kerr’s foot completely wrapped. Is that normal or just for a plane ride?
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:23 pm
by azgreg
Kelvin Sampson's first tournament win came against Arizona in 1999.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:27 pm
by SabinoDrifter
jajoyce wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:11 pm
Kerr’s foot completely wrapped. Is that normal or just for a plane ride?
My guess is they're trying to manage swelling after practice.
Also, surprised Benn wasn't taken out in handcuffs by Clay Travis.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:27 pm
by RaisingArizona
The game when Michael Wright stepped on the line while inbounding it. I had Eduardo Najera nightmares for months.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:30 pm
by RaisingArizona
CopaCat wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:05 pm
RaisingArizona wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 3:29 pm
TCU actually cut into the lead prior to Miles checking back in. If I recall they got it from 9 down to 5.
Miles actually left the game with the score at 57-52 Arizona, but did indeed come back in when score was 67-58.
My bad then. Could have sworn I remembered the announcers commenting about them cutting the deficit while he was on the bench. Perhaps we then went on a small run before he came back in.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:42 pm
by CatFanOneMil
jajoyce wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:11 pm
Kerr’s foot completely wrapped. Is that normal or just for a plane ride?
Flight altitude increases swelling, especially sitting in a plane seat...so this may be normal, hopefully he's able to get to Houston and get acclimated and improve.
I HATE Houston as a city. Last time I was there was when my little bro passed away from pancreatic cancer. Its like a Florida swamp married a redneck pig and birthed a mosquito...it smells like burnt rubber and manure...major oil port...murder rate has increased 54% this year alone...2nd highest homicide rated city only behind Chicago...and for what?
I know the basketball team is not the city, but my god give me Tucson any day over ANY city in Yeeksas...let alone the homicide capitol of Houts son...
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:05 pm
by RaisingArizona
CatFanOneMil wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:42 pm
jajoyce wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:11 pm
Kerr’s foot completely wrapped. Is that normal or just for a plane ride?
my little bro passed away from pancreatic cancer.
Sorry for your loss.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:24 pm
by IndianaZonaFan
CatFanOneMil wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:42 pm
jajoyce wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:11 pm
Kerr’s foot completely wrapped. Is that normal or just for a plane ride?
Flight altitude increases swelling, especially sitting in a plane seat...so this may be normal, hopefully he's able to get to Houston and get acclimated and improve.
I HATE Houston as a city. Last time I was there was when my little bro passed away from pancreatic cancer. Its like a Florida swamp married a redneck pig and birthed a mosquito...it smells like burnt rubber and manure...major oil port...ridiculous amount of whacko christians...murder rate has increased 54% this year alone...2nd highest homicide rated city only behind Chicago...and for what?
I know the basketball team is not the city, but my god give me Tucson any day over ANY city in Yeeksas...let alone the homicide capitol of Houts son...
Good thing they’re flying to San Antonio then, we don’t want the team anywhere near a city closely associated with Chicago and murders. Whole team might not make it to the game. Ain’t that right, dmj?
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:36 pm
by azcat49
Have to think C-Lo will get a lot of attention so Tubes and Ballo need to come up big.
We will be shooting in a dome and that along with the new ball could create another game of low % from three.
I might take a trip to a sporting goods store and see if I can find that rock and see what all the fuss is about
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:37 pm
by UAEebs86
azcat49 wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:36 pm
We will be shooting in a dome and that along with the new ball could create another game of low % from three.
I think someone said it's not in the Alamodome, it's in the Spurs arena.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:43 pm
by prh
Siempre Verde wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 4:06 pm
Love this team, but F that chic fulla hate.
Also love that grey zip up, btw.
Fwiw I think it's a team thing that started from Kier. There was some reference to it on one of the accounts a couple weeks ago
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:44 pm
by RondaeShimmy
UAEebs86 wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:37 pm
azcat49 wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:36 pm
We will be shooting in a dome and that along with the new ball could create another game of low % from three.
I think someone said it's not in the Alamodome, it's in the Spurs arena.
Yup, at&t center
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 6:21 pm
by RondaeShimmy
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 6:30 pm
by azgreg
UAEebs86 wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:37 pm
azcat49 wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 5:36 pm
We will be shooting in a dome and that along with the new ball could create another game of low % from three.
I think someone said it's not in the Alamodome, it's in the Spurs arena.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:24 pm
by phxcat23
Lot of confidence in that 2nd link. I think it comes down to us actually making some 3’s. We were 5-27 from 3. We are normally 35% from 3 so if we even hit 30% of them we score 9 more. Had some ridic layups at the rim we miss and it’s a different game. Post is going to be tougher, but we have to be able to hit some outside shots
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:47 pm
by RaisingArizona
I actually think their fans are pretty reasonable. They have a good program and a great coach. They're coming off an impressive first weekend. I think their posture is fine. They have a couple misunderstandings about our roster but that's to be expected.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:23 pm
by azcat49
They lost to Memphis a couple times mainly because the Tigers wings were problematic for the cougs.
They like to double the post so we should hopefully see some passes out of the post for wide open three’s or dribble drives by our wings.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:26 pm
by EastCoastCat
The fan who said we don't have post passers is pretty uninformed.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:05 pm
by azcat49
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:28 pm
by scumdevils86
For what it's worth (not much), 3 of the 8 writers on sports illustrated picked Houston to win.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:33 pm
by azcat49
So I think it was ODogg who has pointed out our path to the FF in recent years has mostly been chalk.
This year we have by far the toughest road remaining. We have three of the top 8 in almost every metric remaining in our region. We certainly have not been blessed with luck once again
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:36 pm
by UAEebs86
azcat49 wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:33 pm
So I think it was ODogg who has pointed out our path to the FF in recent years has mostly been chalk.
This year we have by far the toughest road remaining. We have three of the top 8 in almost every metric remaining in our region. We certainly have not been blessed with luck once again
But the 3 and the 4 got knocked out for us, and the #2 might still got knocked out by an 11.
I don't think we have a lot to bitch about other than the fact that we had one of the toughest 8/9 teams in our region. (and Kansas getting a ridiculously easy draw in their region)
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:43 pm
by AZCatGirl
I'll take our path instead of being Gonzaga and needing to worry about ref fuckery against Duke.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:49 pm
by 97cats
give me Houston, Villanova or Michigan every day of every week instead of Texas Tech, Duke, Arkansas, UCLA or North Carolina.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 9:58 pm
by Irish27
Not a good look for the Cats but look where the source is from.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/arizona-bask ... 28364.html
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:33 pm
by azpatnca
These guys don't really know they're Arizona the giant #1 seed perennial favorite. They weren't allowed to dance last year, they were picked 29th in the preseason poll, expected to be 4th in the pac, not expected to make the tourney and they balled out and got a #1 seed. They're Cinderella's in their own heads. Then with 15 minutes to go the TCU fans chant over-rated. As if they've been handed this success because of the name on their jersey. I can understand they're excitement to face down their doubters face to face.
It's not something Lute would have allowed, and not something Steve Kerr would have done, but I can understand it's 2022, players flex after every made shot, TCU played shimmied on the rim and did the too-small thing enough times to make it not cool anymore, and they fought hard and won and then went to the people who told them they sucked and waved bye.
I don't really like it, but it's not like this was the preseason #1 team talking trash to super classy fans. It's an underdog group of misfits with a new coach in a sports world that hates them before they even stepped on court for their former coach, their team name, the FBI, ESPN, being on the west, and who knows what else.
I can understand the post game antics. I don't like them, but I can understand it.
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:37 pm
by prh
I'll put this as nicely as humanly possible:
that's a bunch of candy ass bullshit by a bunch of people who enjoy their fake public sainthood while likely being assholes in reality
Re: South Region Discussion
Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:45 pm
by prh
Read through the Houston boards. That's probably the best breakdown analysis and actually realistic discussion by any opponent we've seen all year