Bear Down Wildcats

Well I wouldn’t wait much past this negotiating window. I agree we need to be looking out for #1 and not hitch our rope to the North schools

azcat49 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 8:01 am Well I wouldn’t wait much past this negotiating window. I agree we need to be looking out for #1 and not hitch our rope to the North schools

Absolutely agree on this. Those schools, and additionally the school most closely to the north, would dump us in a heartbeat if asked to do so. The risk of wait and see is being left out of the new era all together. I don’t want to re-visit the University of New Mexico rivalry on a yearly basis.

azcat49 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 8:01 am Well I wouldn’t wait much past this negotiating window. I agree we need to be looking out for #1 and not hitch our rope to the North schools

Agree. Not much longer.

If espn has something huge for us and can lock in for a long period it is worth hearing out.

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:40 am

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:09 am Risk reward. The risk of being completely out of the BIG 12 is minimal. ACC teams are locked into their contracts until 2036. UW and Oregon don't want to go to the BIG 12 and neither do the Bay Area schools. And the reward for waiting? A deal that may be possibly better than jumping to the BIG 12 now.

Waiting is low risk with potential high reward.

A deal that guarantees the vast majority of Arizona’s games will be on when more than half the country is sleeping. Absolutely great deal. Let’s sign up for it forever. That’ll get us into the B1G eventually for sure!

Our football games put most non-Arizona fans to sleep anyway. And if the BIG 12 adds us, they are going to want us to play as many late night games as possible, because that is the most profitable time slot for us to play in. Assume Oregon and UW eventually get into the BIG 10, and we move to the BIG 12, and the PAC is dissolved, ESPN, which owns the rights to BIG 12 games, are going to look to fill their late night time slot. Who do you think they will fill it with?

A wildcard in all this is what happens if the ACC wants to expand west? They would take a look at UW and Oregon, and probably at least two others. But would UW and Oregon leave for the ACC? And I'd assume, part of the deal would be expanding the TV numbers, but keeping the 2036 date and large buyout, which would lock Oregon and UW into the ACC for more than a dozen years. Something I don't see Oregon agreeing to.

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:03 am

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:40 am

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:09 am Risk reward. The risk of being completely out of the BIG 12 is minimal. ACC teams are locked into their contracts until 2036. UW and Oregon don't want to go to the BIG 12 and neither do the Bay Area schools. And the reward for waiting? A deal that may be possibly better than jumping to the BIG 12 now.

Waiting is low risk with potential high reward.

A deal that guarantees the vast majority of Arizona’s games will be on when more than half the country is sleeping. Absolutely great deal. Let’s sign up for it forever. That’ll get us into the B1G eventually for sure!

Our football games put most non-Arizona fans to sleep anyway. And if the BIG 12 adds us, they are going to want us to play as many late night games as possible, because that is the most profitable time slot for us to play in. Assume Oregon and UW eventually get into the BIG 10, and we move to the BIG 12, and the PAC is dissolved, ESPN, which owns the rights to BIG 12 games, are going to look to fill their late night time slot. Who do you think they will fill it with?

A wildcard in all this is what happens if the ACC wants to expand west? They would take a look at UW and Oregon, and probably at least two others. But would UW and Oregon leave for the ACC? And I'd assume, part of the deal would be expanding the TV numbers, but keeping the 2036 date and large buyout, which would lock Oregon and UW into the ACC for more than a dozen years. Something I don't see Oregon agreeing to.

I’m less concerned with our football games, but numerous of them would now take place in CST, MST, or EST, so less late nighters, we’d of course get some. Here’s my main beef and that’s the fact we were playing UCLA, UCL-fucking-A on ESPN2 at 8-9pm local. That’s the marquee matchup in the conference every year, yet that’s the hand we were dealt with the PAC 12. No. Fuck no. Stop. If we play Kansas or Baylor we’re not playing while half the country is sleeping. Quit supporting stupid stuff like this, even if they give you a tad more blood money for it. That is unacceptable and you don’t love yourself if you cheer that sort of thing on. Get some help.

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:06 am

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:03 am

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:40 am

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:09 am Risk reward. The risk of being completely out of the BIG 12 is minimal. ACC teams are locked into their contracts until 2036. UW and Oregon don't want to go to the BIG 12 and neither do the Bay Area schools. And the reward for waiting? A deal that may be possibly better than jumping to the BIG 12 now.

Waiting is low risk with potential high reward.

A deal that guarantees the vast majority of Arizona’s games will be on when more than half the country is sleeping. Absolutely great deal. Let’s sign up for it forever. That’ll get us into the B1G eventually for sure!

Our football games put most non-Arizona fans to sleep anyway. And if the BIG 12 adds us, they are going to want us to play as many late night games as possible, because that is the most profitable time slot for us to play in. Assume Oregon and UW eventually get into the BIG 10, and we move to the BIG 12, and the PAC is dissolved, ESPN, which owns the rights to BIG 12 games, are going to look to fill their late night time slot. Who do you think they will fill it with?

A wildcard in all this is what happens if the ACC wants to expand west? They would take a look at UW and Oregon, and probably at least two others. But would UW and Oregon leave for the ACC? And I'd assume, part of the deal would be expanding the TV numbers, but keeping the 2036 date and large buyout, which would lock Oregon and UW into the ACC for more than a dozen years. Something I don't see Oregon agreeing to.

I’m less concerned with our football games, but numerous of them would now take place in CST, MST, or EST, so less late nighters, we’d of course get some. Here’s my main beef and that’s the fact we were playing UCLA, UCL-fucking-A on ESPN2 at 8-9pm local. That’s the marquee matchup in the conference every year, yet that’s the hand we were dealt with the PAC 12. No. Fuck no. Stop. If we play Kansas or Baylor we’re not playing while half the country is sleeping. Quit supporting stupid stuff like this, even if they give you a tad more blood money for it. That is unacceptable and you don’t love yourself if you cheer that sort of thing on. Get some help.

The money is important. How are we going to be able to compete if we are making tens of millions of dollars less a year? How many successful PAC coaches have been poached by SEC teams in the last few years because they pay more? Heck, just look at Arizona Baseball or ASu Softball over the last two seasons. The problem is going to persist unless we get a call up from the BIG 10 or SEC. If we settle for even less money to bail to the BIG 12, assuming it is less money, the problem will not only persist, but get bigger.

And I can virtually guarantee that if we went to the BIG 12, and Baylor or Kansas was visiting McKale, that game will still likely be the marquee late night game on ESPN. Why? Because live content is king for TV. And there will likely be big east coast basketball games involving Duke, Kentucky, Ohio St., etc. that will fill the earlier time slots. Games just as big as Kansas at Arizona. But none of those games can start as late as a game at Arizona.

Think of things through the eyes of ESPN. Nothing is more profitable to them on a Saturday in the fall than college football. And even the 10 pm Eastern slot has value, and is sure better to have a live game there versus any other programming. Starting in late January, after NFL playoffs are done, college basketball has value. And if ESPN can fill the 10 pm Eastern time slot with a school like Arizona, they will.

Sorry, but Arizona's biggest value when it comes to TV is the late night time slot. That won't change if we change conferences. We'll play more away games in the central time zone, and a few in eastern if we move to the BIG 12. But if we move with the Colorado, Utah, and ASu, assuming we play each every year, we're talking 3, maybe 4 football games? And in a 20 game basketball season, maybe 7 or 8 basketball games? Even less if Oregon and UW are convinced to come along to the BIG 12.

Life is often about trade-offs. And to me, the handful of games in the Central and Eastern time zones are only worth it if it comes with more money. Not to mention, we could be looking at 9:00 AM or 10:00 AM Arizona time games at Central Florida. No thanks. I'll take the money; as much money as we can get. That's priority number one. Even if it means embracing more later starts. Which to be honest, is the most value Arizona and other west coast teams bring to the table.

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:57 am

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 10:06 am

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 9:03 am

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:40 am

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 7:09 am Risk reward. The risk of being completely out of the BIG 12 is minimal. ACC teams are locked into their contracts until 2036. UW and Oregon don't want to go to the BIG 12 and neither do the Bay Area schools. And the reward for waiting? A deal that may be possibly better than jumping to the BIG 12 now.

Waiting is low risk with potential high reward.

A deal that guarantees the vast majority of Arizona’s games will be on when more than half the country is sleeping. Absolutely great deal. Let’s sign up for it forever. That’ll get us into the B1G eventually for sure!

Our football games put most non-Arizona fans to sleep anyway. And if the BIG 12 adds us, they are going to want us to play as many late night games as possible, because that is the most profitable time slot for us to play in. Assume Oregon and UW eventually get into the BIG 10, and we move to the BIG 12, and the PAC is dissolved, ESPN, which owns the rights to BIG 12 games, are going to look to fill their late night time slot. Who do you think they will fill it with?

A wildcard in all this is what happens if the ACC wants to expand west? They would take a look at UW and Oregon, and probably at least two others. But would UW and Oregon leave for the ACC? And I'd assume, part of the deal would be expanding the TV numbers, but keeping the 2036 date and large buyout, which would lock Oregon and UW into the ACC for more than a dozen years. Something I don't see Oregon agreeing to.

I’m less concerned with our football games, but numerous of them would now take place in CST, MST, or EST, so less late nighters, we’d of course get some. Here’s my main beef and that’s the fact we were playing UCLA, UCL-fucking-A on ESPN2 at 8-9pm local. That’s the marquee matchup in the conference every year, yet that’s the hand we were dealt with the PAC 12. No. Fuck no. Stop. If we play Kansas or Baylor we’re not playing while half the country is sleeping. Quit supporting stupid stuff like this, even if they give you a tad more blood money for it. That is unacceptable and you don’t love yourself if you cheer that sort of thing on. Get some help.

The money is important. How are we going to be able to compete if we are making tens of millions of dollars less a year? How many successful PAC coaches have been poached by SEC teams in the last few years because they pay more? Heck, just look at Arizona Baseball or ASu Softball over the last two seasons. The problem is going to persist unless we get a call up from the BIG 10 or SEC. If we settle for even less money to bail to the BIG 12, assuming it is less money, the problem will not only persist, but get bigger.

And I can virtually guarantee that if we went to the BIG 12, and Baylor or Kansas was visiting McKale, that game will still likely be the marquee late night game on ESPN. Why? Because live content is king for TV. And there will likely be big east coast basketball games involving Duke, Kentucky, Ohio St., etc. that will fill the earlier time slots. Games just as big as Kansas at Arizona. But none of those games can start as late as a game at Arizona.

Think of things through the eyes of ESPN. Nothing is more profitable to them on a Saturday in the fall than college football. And even the 10 pm Eastern slot has value, and is sure better to have a live game there versus any other programming. Starting in late January, after NFL playoffs are done, college basketball has value. And if ESPN can fill the 10 pm Eastern time slot with a school like Arizona, they will.

Sorry, but Arizona's biggest value when it comes to TV is the late night time slot. That won't change if we change conferences. We'll play more away games in the central time zone, and a few in eastern if we move to the BIG 12. But if we move with the Colorado, Utah, and ASu, assuming we play each every year, we're talking 3, maybe 4 football games? And in a 20 game basketball season, maybe 7 or 8 basketball games? Even less if Oregon and UW are convinced to come along to the BIG 12.

Life is often about trade-offs. And to me, the handful of games in the Central and Eastern time zones are only worth it if it comes with more money. Not to mention, we could be looking at 9:00 AM or 10:00 AM Arizona time games at Central Florida. No thanks. I'll take the money; as much money as we can get. That's priority number one. Even if it means embracing more later starts. Which to be honest, is the most value Arizona and other west coast teams bring to the table.

Do you work for a media outlet or the PAC12 itself? Maybe it is just that you suffer from Metathesiophobia (I think I spelled it right). Anyone pushing to maintain status quo right now is delusional to think doing so will benefit any of the conference members. Frankly, I would love to see Arizona playing more day and early evening games instead of the vampire shift crap.

Don't work for any media outlet or the PAC 12. But understand, they are the hidden hand behind what's happening. Also understand that money is what's most important. If, for example, Cronin doesn't work out at UCLA, and the Bruins offer CTL 2.5X the salary to coach at Westwood because they have BIG 10 money to burn, then what? Playing at Allen Fieldhouse in February only means anything if both teams are good. We have a much better chance of remaining relevant if we have more money to retain the best coaches.

I'm for whatever brings Arizona the best deal, which means the most money. Jumping to the BIG 12 now without Oregon and UW coming along is not the best possible deal for Arizona right now. It might be in the end, and if it is, so be it. But again, the risk of losing a spot in the BIG 12 is very low right now, which means we can afford to be patient and see if something better does come along.

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:12 pm Don't work for any media outlet or the PAC 12. But understand, they are the hidden hand behind what's happening. Also understand that money is what's most important. If, for example, Cronin doesn't work out at UCLA, and the Bruins offer CTL 2.5X the salary to coach at Westwood because they have BIG 10 money to burn, then what? Playing at Allen Fieldhouse in February only means anything if both teams are good. We have a much better chance of remaining relevant if we have more money to retain the best coaches.

I'm for whatever brings Arizona the best deal, which means the most money. Jumping to the BIG 12 now without Oregon and UW coming along is not the best possible deal for Arizona right now. It might be in the end, and if it is, so be it. But again, the risk of losing a spot in the BIG 12 is very low right now, which means we can afford to be patient and see if something better does come along.

Well, first of all I am still not sold on Lloyd. He made his way through this past season with CSM's kids and no one can say otherwise. This will be his year to prove himself, so bringing UCLA into the discussion is moot. They are gonna do what they are gonna do regardless of what conference Arizona is in. They can go choke on their money while they sniff the ass end of the B1G for the next 10 years.

If if the 4 corners schools were to jump to the BIG12 right now, it would send a message to the rest of the PAC. They would be forced to jump as well. There is no way they would remain in the PAC with the likes of the MWC schools they would be pulling in to replace with. Since the B1G has said no to OU and UW they would have to swallow their pride and follow along with everyone else.

Bottom line is waiting accomplishes nothing. The PAC12 is gone. No two ways about it. It is just a matter of if the members are going to be proactive about their future conference choice or reactive. The Arizona schools need to be leading the push to dissolve the conference instead of sitting still and taking it up the backside with a smile.

Basketcats wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:36 pm

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:12 pm Don't work for any media outlet or the PAC 12. But understand, they are the hidden hand behind what's happening. Also understand that money is what's most important. If, for example, Cronin doesn't work out at UCLA, and the Bruins offer CTL 2.5X the salary to coach at Westwood because they have BIG 10 money to burn, then what? Playing at Allen Fieldhouse in February only means anything if both teams are good. We have a much better chance of remaining relevant if we have more money to retain the best coaches.

I'm for whatever brings Arizona the best deal, which means the most money. Jumping to the BIG 12 now without Oregon and UW coming along is not the best possible deal for Arizona right now. It might be in the end, and if it is, so be it. But again, the risk of losing a spot in the BIG 12 is very low right now, which means we can afford to be patient and see if something better does come along.

Well, first of all I am still not sold on Lloyd. He made his way through this past season with CSM's kids and no one can say otherwise. This will be his year to prove himself, so bringing UCLA into the discussion is moot. They are gonna do what they are gonna do regardless of what conference Arizona is in. They can go choke on their money while they sniff the ass end of the B1G for the next 10 years.

If if the 4 corners schools were to jump to the BIG12 right now, it would send a message to the rest of the PAC. They would be forced to jump as well. There is no way they would remain in the PAC with the likes of the MWC schools they would be pulling in to replace with. Since the B1G has said no to OU and UW they would have to swallow their pride and follow along with everyone else.

Bottom line is waiting accomplishes nothing. The PAC12 is gone. No two ways about it. It is just a matter of if the members are going to be proactive about their future conference choice or reactive. The Arizona schools need to be leading the push to dissolve the conference instead of sitting still and taking it up the backside with a smile.

The Lloyd example is just a hypothetical. Arizona and other PAC schools have already lost good coaches to the SEC, who can pay out their butts. May be nothing we can do to stop this, but that shouldn't stop us from trying.

Lots of moving parts and players who haven't revealed their hands yet when it comes to re-alignment. But here are some facts and solid assumptions we do know.

For example, only Notre Dame moves the needle enough for the BIG 10 and SEC at this point. Top schools not in these two conferences other than ND include Clemson, Washington, FSU, and Oregon, and none of these schools would add enough to make it profitable for the SEC or BIG 10.

The BIG 12 is a different story. It's why they are looking to add PAC schools.

ACC schools are currently stuck with an albatross of a contract until 2036.

We can reasonably assume Oregon, UW, and even Utah, Colorado, and ASu believe there are better options in the near future other than the BIG 12. That's why we aren't members yet.

We can also assume the BIG 10 won't leave the LA schools on an island for long, and will look to add some PAC members.

Assume ND is the top target for the BIG 10, which would make adding Stanford more than acceptable, even though Stanford wouldn't add value.

After ND and Stanford, assume the BIG 10 may look to add at least 2 more from the PAC. If AAU schools are their only targets, that leaves UW, Oregon, CAL, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado.

We can also assume that ESPN values the late night live games, and will do everything they can to keep UW and Oregon, the top two teams on the west left, out of the BIG 10. If the BIG 10 has LA, Oregon, and UW, Fox will own the late night football games. ESPN would be happy to have Oregon and UW in the BIG 12, but again, Oregon and UW don't want to go.

Arizona can try to take the 5 other PAC schools with us to the BIG 12, but their hesitation to go, especially Oregon, may mean there are some potential deals that Phil Knight has worked out that puts Oregon in a better conference that are just waiting on some of the other dominoes to fall.

I personally assume the SEC is waiting to see the value ESPN puts on the west coast content so they can run some numbers. ESPN would love Oregon and UW in the SEC, along with a couple of partners, so that Fox doesn't rule this viewing segment. Oregon and UW would love to stick it to the LA schools as well. If the PAC survives with a short term deal from ESPN, the SEC might view this as an audition, and add Oregon, UW, Utah, and Colorado, even before Notre Dame makes a move. Again, doubtful the BIG 10 leaves the LA schools on the island, so this might cause the BIG 10 to scramble and add remaining AAU schools in the west. And even if we are left out completely in this scenario, we become even more attractive to the BIG 12 at this point, who have few, if any options left.

This is the value of waiting. We're not the best looking option, but there is value in playing the wingman, who often gets very lucky, and leaves with someone out of their league if they had been on their own. And if not, the invite to the BIG 12 isn't going anywhere.

No reason not to hear out espn and get an idea of what others may offer. But at least espn will come at the expense of late kickoffs. Which are worth if it espn would give at least several million more than the Big 12 would and you get a huge buyout if Washington or Oregon leave (or ACC schools if the partnership is done. If the money is the same the Big 12 is the way to go

84Cat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:24 pm

Lol that may be the most non-committed committed statement I’ve ever seen.

Trying saying that to your significant other LOL.

PHXCATS wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:18 pm No reason not to hear out espn and get an idea of what others may offer. But at least espn will come at the expense of late kickoffs. Which are worth if it espn would give at least several million more than the Big 12 would and you get a huge buyout if Washington or Oregon leave (or ACC schools if the partnership is done. If the money is the same the Big 12 is the way to go

I say with 100% confidence that Arizona nor most schools in this conference would settle for less than a Grant of Rights signed by all 10 schools if this zombie of a conference continues. A one time buyout does Jack shit for the future of Arizona. I swear some of you guys lack the ability to have any sort of foresight. Money matters, but there’s not a world that exists where the difference between the PAC and the B12 would be so astronomical that we make this decision based on money. We’re not going to get close to the B1G/SEC, so the most secure situation is the only correct answer and that’s not holding hands and depending on the kindness of UW and Oregon. That’s a chumps bet.

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:31 pm

PHXCATS wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:18 pm No reason not to hear out espn and get an idea of what others may offer. But at least espn will come at the expense of late kickoffs. Which are worth if it espn would give at least several million more than the Big 12 would and you get a huge buyout if Washington or Oregon leave (or ACC schools if the partnership is done. If the money is the same the Big 12 is the way to go

I say with 100% confidence that Arizona nor most schools in this conference would settle for less than a Grant of Rights signed by all 10 schools if this zombie of a conference continues. A one time buyout does Jack shit for the future of Arizona. I swear some of you guys lack the ability to have any sort of foresight. Money matters, but there’s not a world that exists where the difference between the PAC and the B12 would be so astronomical that we make this decision based on money. We’re not going to get close to the B1G/SEC, so the most secure situation is the only correct answer and that’s not holding hands and depending on the kindness of UW and Oregon. That’s a chumps bet.

Sorry for using the wrong wording....

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:31 pm

PHXCATS wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 2:18 pm No reason not to hear out espn and get an idea of what others may offer. But at least espn will come at the expense of late kickoffs. Which are worth if it espn would give at least several million more than the Big 12 would and you get a huge buyout if Washington or Oregon leave (or ACC schools if the partnership is done. If the money is the same the Big 12 is the way to go

I say with 100% confidence that Arizona nor most schools in this conference would settle for less than a Grant of Rights signed by all 10 schools if this zombie of a conference continues. A one time buyout does Jack shit for the future of Arizona. I swear some of you guys lack the ability to have any sort of foresight. Money matters, but there’s not a world that exists where the difference between the PAC and the B12 would be so astronomical that we make this decision based on money. We’re not going to get close to the B1G/SEC, so the most secure situation is the only correct answer and that’s not holding hands and depending on the kindness of UW and Oregon. That’s a chumps bet.

I think you are the one being short sighted. Only seeing the BIG 12 as our only landing spot. Yes, we are not as desirable as others, but I believe ESPN and Fox are in an arms race, using the SEC and BIG 10 as their respective proxies. If ESPN really values the late night, west coast start, they are going to do everything to keep Oregon and UW out of the BIG 10. Lose them, and the teams left in the west aren't enough value to combat the late night games on Fox channels.

It's also obvious that Oregon and UW want no part of the BIG 12. Otherwise, we'd be members already. Short term, they are hoping the ESPN deal is enough to stave off the death of the PAC for a few years until Notre Dame makes a decision, and the rest of the dominoes fall. Or the value is enough to entice the SEC to make another splash. If this happens, then it will become a race to add the most valuable teams in the west to give USC and UCLA partners in the BIG 10, and Oregon and UW partners in the SEC.

We may get left out, but that would only make us more attractive to the BIG 12. They would need to grow too, and if the Arizona schools, WAZZU, and Oregon State are the only schools left in the west not in the SEC or BIG 10, the Arizona schools add a lot more value. Especially since the ACC schools will still have an exorbitant buyout. Now, if ACC schools somehow find a way to nullify that, we can panic. But there isn't a case even in court yet.

AzDuckFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 1:44 pm

The Lloyd example is just a hypothetical. Arizona and other PAC schools have already lost good coaches to the SEC, who can pay out their butts. May be nothing we can do to stop this, but that shouldn't stop us from trying.

Lots of moving parts and players who haven't revealed their hands yet when it comes to re-alignment. But here are some facts and solid assumptions we do know.

For example, only Notre Dame moves the needle enough for the BIG 10 and SEC at this point. Top schools not in these two conferences other than ND include Clemson, Washington, FSU, and Oregon, and none of these schools would add enough to make it profitable for the SEC or BIG 10.

The BIG 12 is a different story. It's why they are looking to add PAC schools.

ACC schools are currently stuck with an albatross of a contract until 2036.

We can reasonably assume Oregon, UW, and even Utah, Colorado, and ASu believe there are better options in the near future other than the BIG 12. That's why we aren't members yet.

We can also assume the BIG 10 won't leave the LA schools on an island for long, and will look to add some PAC members.

Assume ND is the top target for the BIG 10, which would make adding Stanford more than acceptable, even though Stanford wouldn't add value.

After ND and Stanford, assume the BIG 10 may look to add at least 2 more from the PAC. If AAU schools are their only targets, that leaves UW, Oregon, CAL, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado.

We can also assume that ESPN values the late night live games, and will do everything they can to keep UW and Oregon, the top two teams on the west left, out of the BIG 10. If the BIG 10 has LA, Oregon, and UW, Fox will own the late night football games. ESPN would be happy to have Oregon and UW in the BIG 12, but again, Oregon and UW don't want to go.

Arizona can try to take the 5 other PAC schools with us to the BIG 12, but their hesitation to go, especially Oregon, may mean there are some potential deals that Phil Knight has worked out that puts Oregon in a better conference that are just waiting on some of the other dominoes to fall.

I personally assume the SEC is waiting to see the value ESPN puts on the west coast content so they can run some numbers. ESPN would love Oregon and UW in the SEC, along with a couple of partners, so that Fox doesn't rule this viewing segment. Oregon and UW would love to stick it to the LA schools as well. If the PAC survives with a short term deal from ESPN, the SEC might view this as an audition, and add Oregon, UW, Utah, and Colorado, even before Notre Dame makes a move. Again, doubtful the BIG 10 leaves the LA schools on the island, so this might cause the BIG 10 to scramble and add remaining AAU schools in the west. And even if we are left out completely in this scenario, we become even more attractive to the BIG 12 at this point, who have few, if any options left.

This is the value of waiting. We're not the best looking option, but there is value in playing the wingman, who often gets very lucky, and leaves with someone out of their league if they had been on their own. And if not, the invite to the BIG 12 isn't going anywhere.

Lmao. What?
And what do you think this is a cheesy 80s flick? Nobody is buying what you're selling.

KillerKlown wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:27 pm

AzDuckFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 1:44 pm

The Lloyd example is just a hypothetical. Arizona and other PAC schools have already lost good coaches to the SEC, who can pay out their butts. May be nothing we can do to stop this, but that shouldn't stop us from trying.

Lots of moving parts and players who haven't revealed their hands yet when it comes to re-alignment. But here are some facts and solid assumptions we do know.

For example, only Notre Dame moves the needle enough for the BIG 10 and SEC at this point. Top schools not in these two conferences other than ND include Clemson, Washington, FSU, and Oregon, and none of these schools would add enough to make it profitable for the SEC or BIG 10.

The BIG 12 is a different story. It's why they are looking to add PAC schools.

ACC schools are currently stuck with an albatross of a contract until 2036.

We can reasonably assume Oregon, UW, and even Utah, Colorado, and ASu believe there are better options in the near future other than the BIG 12. That's why we aren't members yet.

We can also assume the BIG 10 won't leave the LA schools on an island for long, and will look to add some PAC members.

Assume ND is the top target for the BIG 10, which would make adding Stanford more than acceptable, even though Stanford wouldn't add value.

After ND and Stanford, assume the BIG 10 may look to add at least 2 more from the PAC. If AAU schools are their only targets, that leaves UW, Oregon, CAL, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado.

We can also assume that ESPN values the late night live games, and will do everything they can to keep UW and Oregon, the top two teams on the west left, out of the BIG 10. If the BIG 10 has LA, Oregon, and UW, Fox will own the late night football games. ESPN would be happy to have Oregon and UW in the BIG 12, but again, Oregon and UW don't want to go.

Arizona can try to take the 5 other PAC schools with us to the BIG 12, but their hesitation to go, especially Oregon, may mean there are some potential deals that Phil Knight has worked out that puts Oregon in a better conference that are just waiting on some of the other dominoes to fall.

I personally assume the SEC is waiting to see the value ESPN puts on the west coast content so they can run some numbers. ESPN would love Oregon and UW in the SEC, along with a couple of partners, so that Fox doesn't rule this viewing segment. Oregon and UW would love to stick it to the LA schools as well. If the PAC survives with a short term deal from ESPN, the SEC might view this as an audition, and add Oregon, UW, Utah, and Colorado, even before Notre Dame makes a move. Again, doubtful the BIG 10 leaves the LA schools on the island, so this might cause the BIG 10 to scramble and add remaining AAU schools in the west. And even if we are left out completely in this scenario, we become even more attractive to the BIG 12 at this point, who have few, if any options left.

This is the value of waiting. We're not the best looking option, but there is value in playing the wingman, who often gets very lucky, and leaves with someone out of their league if they had been on their own. And if not, the invite to the BIG 12 isn't going anywhere.

Lmao. What?
And what do you think this is a cheesy 80s flick? Nobody is buying what you're selling.

Sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows every day!

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:45 pm

KillerKlown wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:27 pm

AzDuckFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 1:44 pm

The Lloyd example is just a hypothetical. Arizona and other PAC schools have already lost good coaches to the SEC, who can pay out their butts. May be nothing we can do to stop this, but that shouldn't stop us from trying.

Lots of moving parts and players who haven't revealed their hands yet when it comes to re-alignment. But here are some facts and solid assumptions we do know.

For example, only Notre Dame moves the needle enough for the BIG 10 and SEC at this point. Top schools not in these two conferences other than ND include Clemson, Washington, FSU, and Oregon, and none of these schools would add enough to make it profitable for the SEC or BIG 10.

The BIG 12 is a different story. It's why they are looking to add PAC schools.

ACC schools are currently stuck with an albatross of a contract until 2036.

We can reasonably assume Oregon, UW, and even Utah, Colorado, and ASu believe there are better options in the near future other than the BIG 12. That's why we aren't members yet.

We can also assume the BIG 10 won't leave the LA schools on an island for long, and will look to add some PAC members.

Assume ND is the top target for the BIG 10, which would make adding Stanford more than acceptable, even though Stanford wouldn't add value.

After ND and Stanford, assume the BIG 10 may look to add at least 2 more from the PAC. If AAU schools are their only targets, that leaves UW, Oregon, CAL, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado.

We can also assume that ESPN values the late night live games, and will do everything they can to keep UW and Oregon, the top two teams on the west left, out of the BIG 10. If the BIG 10 has LA, Oregon, and UW, Fox will own the late night football games. ESPN would be happy to have Oregon and UW in the BIG 12, but again, Oregon and UW don't want to go.

Arizona can try to take the 5 other PAC schools with us to the BIG 12, but their hesitation to go, especially Oregon, may mean there are some potential deals that Phil Knight has worked out that puts Oregon in a better conference that are just waiting on some of the other dominoes to fall.

I personally assume the SEC is waiting to see the value ESPN puts on the west coast content so they can run some numbers. ESPN would love Oregon and UW in the SEC, along with a couple of partners, so that Fox doesn't rule this viewing segment. Oregon and UW would love to stick it to the LA schools as well. If the PAC survives with a short term deal from ESPN, the SEC might view this as an audition, and add Oregon, UW, Utah, and Colorado, even before Notre Dame makes a move. Again, doubtful the BIG 10 leaves the LA schools on the island, so this might cause the BIG 10 to scramble and add remaining AAU schools in the west. And even if we are left out completely in this scenario, we become even more attractive to the BIG 12 at this point, who have few, if any options left.

This is the value of waiting. We're not the best looking option, but there is value in playing the wingman, who often gets very lucky, and leaves with someone out of their league if they had been on their own. And if not, the invite to the BIG 12 isn't going anywhere.

Lmao. What?
And what do you think this is a cheesy 80s flick? Nobody is buying what you're selling.

Sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows every day!

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Thanks, Chicken Little.

Really think ESPN wants Oregon and UW in the BIG 10? Really think Oregon and UW want in the BIG 12? What options exist for Oregon and UW to remain on ESPN? Stay in the PAC, which isn't sustainable long term. Move to the ACC or BIG 12, which is something Oregon doesn't want. Or join the SEC. If ESPN doesn't make it attractive enough to stay, Oregon and UW will likely end up in the BIG 10. They would bolt the second they answered the phone.

Top five rated CFB games each weekend of last season. I highlighted the current Pac 12 teams so you tell me, why would you want to stick around?

Weekend of 9.4: Georgia v. Clemson, Notre Dame v. Florida State, Ohio State @ Minnesota (MINNESOTA!), Alabama v. Miami, Penn State @ Wisconsin
Weekend of 9.11: Oregon @ Ohio State, Washington @ Michigan, Texas A&M v. Colorado, Iowa @ Iowa State, Texas @ Arkansas
Weekend of 9.25: Notre Dame v. Wisconsin, West Virginia @ Oklahoma, Texas A&M v. Arkansas, Tennessee @ Florida, Rutgers (RUTGERS!) @ Michigan
Weekend of 10.2: Ole Miss @ Alabama, Michigan @ Wisconsin, Indiana (INDIANA!) @ Penn State, Arkansas @ Georgia, Cincinnati @ Notre Dame
Weekend of 10.9: Alabama @ Texas A&M, Penn State @ Iowa, Oklahoma v. Texas, Michigan @ Nebraska, Georgia @ Auburn
Weekend of 10.16: Kentucky @ Georgia, Alabama @ Miss. State, Purdue @ Iowa, TCU @ Oklahoma, Oklahoma State @ Texas
Weekend of 10.23: Tennessee @ Alabama, Oregon @ UCLA, Illinois (ILLINOIS!) @ Penn State, Ohio State @ Indiana, Northwestern (NORTHWESTERN!) @ Wisconsin
Weekend of 10.30: Michigan @ Michigan State, Penn State @ Ohio State, Georgia v. Florida, Colorado @ Oregon, Ole Miss @ Auburn
Weekend of 11.6: Ohio State @ Nebraska, LSU @ Alabama, Michigan State @ Purdue, Auburn @ Texas A&M, Oregon @ Washington
Weekend of 11.13: Michigan @ Penn State, Georgia @ Tennessee, Purdue @ Ohio State, Oklahoma @ Baylor, Texas A&M @ Ole Miss
Weekend of 11.20: Arkansas @ Alabama, Michigan State @ Iowa State, Oregon @ Utah, Nebraska @ Wisconsin, Iowa State @ Oklahoma
Weekend of 11.27: Ohio State @ Michigan, Alabama @ Auburn, Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State, Wisconsin @ Minnesota, Penn State @ Michigan State

Maybe I was playing wingman wrong, but, never once in my illustrious wingman career did I leave with anyone, let alone someone out of my league.

Not complaining, just saying.

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:49 pm

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:45 pm

KillerKlown wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:27 pm

AzDuckFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 1:44 pm

The Lloyd example is just a hypothetical. Arizona and other PAC schools have already lost good coaches to the SEC, who can pay out their butts. May be nothing we can do to stop this, but that shouldn't stop us from trying.

Lots of moving parts and players who haven't revealed their hands yet when it comes to re-alignment. But here are some facts and solid assumptions we do know.

For example, only Notre Dame moves the needle enough for the BIG 10 and SEC at this point. Top schools not in these two conferences other than ND include Clemson, Washington, FSU, and Oregon, and none of these schools would add enough to make it profitable for the SEC or BIG 10.

The BIG 12 is a different story. It's why they are looking to add PAC schools.

ACC schools are currently stuck with an albatross of a contract until 2036.

We can reasonably assume Oregon, UW, and even Utah, Colorado, and ASu believe there are better options in the near future other than the BIG 12. That's why we aren't members yet.

We can also assume the BIG 10 won't leave the LA schools on an island for long, and will look to add some PAC members.

Assume ND is the top target for the BIG 10, which would make adding Stanford more than acceptable, even though Stanford wouldn't add value.

After ND and Stanford, assume the BIG 10 may look to add at least 2 more from the PAC. If AAU schools are their only targets, that leaves UW, Oregon, CAL, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado.

We can also assume that ESPN values the late night live games, and will do everything they can to keep UW and Oregon, the top two teams on the west left, out of the BIG 10. If the BIG 10 has LA, Oregon, and UW, Fox will own the late night football games. ESPN would be happy to have Oregon and UW in the BIG 12, but again, Oregon and UW don't want to go.

Arizona can try to take the 5 other PAC schools with us to the BIG 12, but their hesitation to go, especially Oregon, may mean there are some potential deals that Phil Knight has worked out that puts Oregon in a better conference that are just waiting on some of the other dominoes to fall.

I personally assume the SEC is waiting to see the value ESPN puts on the west coast content so they can run some numbers. ESPN would love Oregon and UW in the SEC, along with a couple of partners, so that Fox doesn't rule this viewing segment. Oregon and UW would love to stick it to the LA schools as well. If the PAC survives with a short term deal from ESPN, the SEC might view this as an audition, and add Oregon, UW, Utah, and Colorado, even before Notre Dame makes a move. Again, doubtful the BIG 10 leaves the LA schools on the island, so this might cause the BIG 10 to scramble and add remaining AAU schools in the west. And even if we are left out completely in this scenario, we become even more attractive to the BIG 12 at this point, who have few, if any options left.

This is the value of waiting. We're not the best looking option, but there is value in playing the wingman, who often gets very lucky, and leaves with someone out of their league if they had been on their own. And if not, the invite to the BIG 12 isn't going anywhere.

Lmao. What?
And what do you think this is a cheesy 80s flick? Nobody is buying what you're selling.

Sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows every day!

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Thanks, Chicken Little.

Really think ESPN wants Oregon and UW in the BIG 10? Really think Oregon and UW want in the BIG 12? What options exist for Oregon and UW to remain on ESPN? Stay in the PAC, which isn't sustainable long term. Move to the ACC or BIG 12, which is something Oregon doesn't want. Or join the SEC. If ESPN doesn't make it attractive enough to stay, Oregon and UW will likely end up in the BIG 10. They would bolt the second they answered the phone.

Yawn.

Maybe I'm just old and grumpy but I wish this entire thread would receive a quick and untimely death. Nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen so it's a waiting game and I believe everybody has stated their own position on the subject, right?

UADevil - I want to submit a site enhancement request. If any user repeats the same statement/position more than 10x can you please send an electronic shock wave to their device? Thank you in advance for this request...

ChooChooCat wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:26 am

AzCatFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:49 pm

ChooChooCat wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:45 pm

KillerKlown wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 3:27 pm

AzDuckFan2 wrote: Thu Jul 14, 2022 1:44 pm

The Lloyd example is just a hypothetical. Arizona and other PAC schools have already lost good coaches to the SEC, who can pay out their butts. May be nothing we can do to stop this, but that shouldn't stop us from trying.

Lots of moving parts and players who haven't revealed their hands yet when it comes to re-alignment. But here are some facts and solid assumptions we do know.

For example, only Notre Dame moves the needle enough for the BIG 10 and SEC at this point. Top schools not in these two conferences other than ND include Clemson, Washington, FSU, and Oregon, and none of these schools would add enough to make it profitable for the SEC or BIG 10.

The BIG 12 is a different story. It's why they are looking to add PAC schools.

ACC schools are currently stuck with an albatross of a contract until 2036.

We can reasonably assume Oregon, UW, and even Utah, Colorado, and ASu believe there are better options in the near future other than the BIG 12. That's why we aren't members yet.

We can also assume the BIG 10 won't leave the LA schools on an island for long, and will look to add some PAC members.

Assume ND is the top target for the BIG 10, which would make adding Stanford more than acceptable, even though Stanford wouldn't add value.

After ND and Stanford, assume the BIG 10 may look to add at least 2 more from the PAC. If AAU schools are their only targets, that leaves UW, Oregon, CAL, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado.

We can also assume that ESPN values the late night live games, and will do everything they can to keep UW and Oregon, the top two teams on the west left, out of the BIG 10. If the BIG 10 has LA, Oregon, and UW, Fox will own the late night football games. ESPN would be happy to have Oregon and UW in the BIG 12, but again, Oregon and UW don't want to go.

Arizona can try to take the 5 other PAC schools with us to the BIG 12, but their hesitation to go, especially Oregon, may mean there are some potential deals that Phil Knight has worked out that puts Oregon in a better conference that are just waiting on some of the other dominoes to fall.

I personally assume the SEC is waiting to see the value ESPN puts on the west coast content so they can run some numbers. ESPN would love Oregon and UW in the SEC, along with a couple of partners, so that Fox doesn't rule this viewing segment. Oregon and UW would love to stick it to the LA schools as well. If the PAC survives with a short term deal from ESPN, the SEC might view this as an audition, and add Oregon, UW, Utah, and Colorado, even before Notre Dame makes a move. Again, doubtful the BIG 10 leaves the LA schools on the island, so this might cause the BIG 10 to scramble and add remaining AAU schools in the west. And even if we are left out completely in this scenario, we become even more attractive to the BIG 12 at this point, who have few, if any options left.

This is the value of waiting. We're not the best looking option, but there is value in playing the wingman, who often gets very lucky, and leaves with someone out of their league if they had been on their own. And if not, the invite to the BIG 12 isn't going anywhere.

Lmao. What?
And what do you think this is a cheesy 80s flick? Nobody is buying what you're selling.

Sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows every day!

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Thanks, Chicken Little.

Really think ESPN wants Oregon and UW in the BIG 10? Really think Oregon and UW want in the BIG 12? What options exist for Oregon and UW to remain on ESPN? Stay in the PAC, which isn't sustainable long term. Move to the ACC or BIG 12, which is something Oregon doesn't want. Or join the SEC. If ESPN doesn't make it attractive enough to stay, Oregon and UW will likely end up in the BIG 10. They would bolt the second they answered the phone.

Yawn.

A brilliant and inciteful response, with impeccable logic. How can I even hope to respond?

And I was called short sighted.

Colorado to the SEC guaranteed.

KillerKlown wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:28 am Colorado to the SEC guaranteed.

La Liga is more likely.

EastCoastCat wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:51 am UADevil - I want to submit a site enhancement request. If any user repeats the same statement/position more than 10x can you please send an electronic shock wave to their device? Thank you in advance for this request...

KillerKlown wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 7:28 am Colorado to the SEC guaranteed.

Source?

It's a joke

I find it kind of amusing how this situation is kind of like hitting a slot machine and having all the tokens spill over into your lap for the afore-mentioned gentlemen. There's an eager audience bouncing around like Hammy the squirrel (Over The Hedge) desperate for an update every day that's not likely to come. In every case, these "experts" look at the situation from every angle with a magnifying glass and "analyze" it, to provide the latest in Breaking News! One day, there may be a stat about TV markets, ratings, and revenues, and another day a quote from somebody who speculates as much as they do, which is basically writers citing other writers. Gotta feed the beast. So we get a run-down of every possible scenario with fairy tale "odds" associated with each. Well, okay, but it's all filler. Personally, I'd rather make a bold move and have some control of my destiny. But it looks like the ten presidents have decided to committee this thing, because they all have so very much experience with conference re-alignment and media rights deals. In any event, we'll be in the Pac-12 with USC and UCLA for two more full school years. Here's to making their lives as miserable as possible.

Nothing is going to happen until we know what ESPN is offering the 10 PAC schools. That's expected to be revealed at the end of the month. If it's a crappy deal, and a move to the BIG 12 is much better financially, then OK. I expect this won't happen, because ESPN doesn't want to lose Oregon and UW to Fox (BIG 10).

We could be bold and control our own destiny, or we can look at the facts and safe assumptions and wait to make an informed decision. The facts include an ACC deal that cost member schools over $100 million to break before 2036. The safe assumptions include the BIG 10 won't leave the LA schools on an island, and the next move the BIG 10 wants to make is adding Notre Dame plus Stanford.

Working out the scenarios then becomes a logic problem. If scenario A were to happen, for example, does it contradict any known rules or safe assumptions? And how many? For example, say scenario A is the BIG 12 adding 4 ACC schools, plus Oregon, UW, and the Bay Area schools. That breaks the ACC fact, plus the assumption that these 4 PAC schools don't want to go to the BIG 12. Scenario A then becomes so improbable, it's not worth worrying about.

In the end, there are very few scenarios where our worst case isn't a BIG 12 invite. It's also our most likely landing spot, in my opinion. But no reason to rush the decision today.

UAEebs86 wrote: Fri Jul 15, 2022 4:03 pm

Awesome - It will be interesting to see what heads might roll at the UC Regents + UCLA HQ for operating/making sure consequential decisions in isolation.

The other point raised in the article about how the Big Sky conference is dependent on Pac-12 football to pay for their other sports programs is also fascinating. I suspect there is additional budget analysis ongoing in Sacramento about impacts to the other UC and Cal State programs that might also face significant cost impacts from the Pac-12 potentially dying and/or losing vital revenues.


PS, Newsom is eying national office again, so it will be interesting to see how this issues gets balanced against his other priorities.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/remaining- ... 47662.html

Just one guys opinions how each remaining team stacks up in the desirability category. Cats come in at #8 out of 10 and 61 overall in the country (of the remaining teams not in the SEC or B1G)

azcat49 wrote: Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:04 pm https://www.yahoo.com/sports/remaining- ... 47662.html

Just one guys opinions how each remaining team stacks up in the desirability category. Cats come in at #8 out of 10 and 61 overall in the country (of the remaining teams not in the SEC or B1G)

He used the seasons of 2017-2021 to base a lot of his rankings. Needless to say those were some of our worst seasons ever. If they go by recency bias then yeah we're dog shit.

The PAC-12 Network being a pile of dog shit doesn't help either. Even Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee with a noon East coast start time on the SEC Network will have more eyeballs than any game on the PAC-12 network. The SEC Network is simply in significantly more households around the nation due to carriage agreements with DirecTv. Of course, the counter argument is, had we not been a dog shit team, we would have had less games on the PAC-12 Network.

Thought it fitting that all of the team pictures in that link are of football teams, except for ours. Since our commodity is our basketball team it makes sense to have CTL out front.

Also, Washington and Furd over Oregon??

Maybe there is basis for discrediting the whole thing.

Big 12 and NBC would be huge

This really sums it up.

If you don’t have at least a second bidder for those rights then you are at the mercy of their low ball offer.

UAEebs86 wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 6:45 pm

Who are the 2 sides? Arizona and mountain schools wanting to bail to the big 12 and seeing the writing on the wall and the other 6 wanting to keep it together at 10?

Why would the Big 12 want to merge with the Pac 12? It was always about taking the best remaining schools in the Pac 12

84Cat wrote: Mon Jul 18, 2022 7:39 pm Why would the Big 12 want to merge with the Pac 12? It was always about taking the best remaining schools in the Pac 12

Because the Big 12 once again will be raided by the SEC and possibly the Big 10.


The only thing that truly would have a shot at forcing that not to happen is a merger that forces a major negotiation of a new TV rights agreement with one of the monopolies. One that is in the neighborhood of the SEC and Big 10. Problem is a merger of the Pac 12 and Big 12 wouldn't do that because most of the schools don't meet big money standards.


We really need a merger between the Big 12, Pac 10, and ACC to really make this work. Some schools should be left out, hopefully not us. The conference Power Brokers won't play nice though, so this is a pipe dream. These power hungry idiots actually believe stealing schools from each other will allow them to actually compete with the SEC and Big 10 freight train. Good luck.


Really the only option for current high major schools is to harness a permanent spot in the upper echelon. Otherwise, 5 years from now or sooner. Bye Oklahoma St, Oregon, Washington, Stanford, probably Cal, Florida St, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, etc. Then what do you have? Could you even make a legit competitive conference at that point? Maybe in basketball you could salvage one. In Football though, most recruits would covet the SEC and B1G for the notoriety. Everyone else would be 2nd tier garbage.


Pretty shitty situation honestly. Fuck ESPN, Fox, and Ben Franklin.