Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds
Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:47 pm
Yes, it went chalk, but let's put that aside for a moment ...
First the odds, then the actual results:
(1) Kate Upton PICK'EM (8) Alyssa Milano Upton 34-24 10
(4) Charlize Theron -8 (5) Salma Hayek Theron 30-27 3
(3) Elisha Cuthbert -11.5 (6) Emmanuelle Chriqui Cuthbert 39-13 26
(2) Jessica Alba -9 (7) Kate Beckinsale Alba 33-18 15
So 3/4 higher seeds covered, as well as 2/3 favorites (since Upton-Milano was a Pick'em). Not a great job of handicapping the races, but not awful either, as the two heavy favorites ran away with their matches, and the the two closer races, for factors undiscovered or unexplained, remained closer.
Now, after much deliberation and numbers crunching, the Final Four odds:
(1) Upton -1 (4) Theron
(3) Cuthbert -5.5 (2) Alba
Upton-Theron is more of a gut call than relying on the math, maybe should be a Pick'em, but Upton is actually gaining momentum in total votes - 34 was her highest vote totals of the tournament - while Theron has lost momentum over the last two rounds and is showing serious vulnerability after a last minute escape over Salma and her Hayeks. A week ago, I'd probably have Theron favored by 6-7, as Upton remains the most polarizing team in the field with a loud and vocal anti-Upton minority wanting her to go home, but she keeps surviving and advancing. Still, no result would surprise me in this match, worthy of the title game.
More of a difficult read for me is Cuthbert-Alba. Both have barnstormed their way into the Final Four, both are #1-2 in average scoring margin (Cuthbert +30.75, Alba +24.25), and both have their consistently loyal and high followings less subject to that of the opposition (Cuthbert #1 in total votes, while Alba has higher total votes than Upton and less deviation in total votes than Theron). Hard to ignore Cuthbert's metrics (in several ways), but as Alba is the only remaining non-blonde, Cuthbert may be subject to what I can only term the "Hayek Phenomenon", as this match may be close throughout.
Remember, there are no losers here ...
First the odds, then the actual results:
(1) Kate Upton PICK'EM (8) Alyssa Milano Upton 34-24 10
(4) Charlize Theron -8 (5) Salma Hayek Theron 30-27 3
(3) Elisha Cuthbert -11.5 (6) Emmanuelle Chriqui Cuthbert 39-13 26
(2) Jessica Alba -9 (7) Kate Beckinsale Alba 33-18 15
So 3/4 higher seeds covered, as well as 2/3 favorites (since Upton-Milano was a Pick'em). Not a great job of handicapping the races, but not awful either, as the two heavy favorites ran away with their matches, and the the two closer races, for factors undiscovered or unexplained, remained closer.
Now, after much deliberation and numbers crunching, the Final Four odds:
(1) Upton -1 (4) Theron
(3) Cuthbert -5.5 (2) Alba
Upton-Theron is more of a gut call than relying on the math, maybe should be a Pick'em, but Upton is actually gaining momentum in total votes - 34 was her highest vote totals of the tournament - while Theron has lost momentum over the last two rounds and is showing serious vulnerability after a last minute escape over Salma and her Hayeks. A week ago, I'd probably have Theron favored by 6-7, as Upton remains the most polarizing team in the field with a loud and vocal anti-Upton minority wanting her to go home, but she keeps surviving and advancing. Still, no result would surprise me in this match, worthy of the title game.
More of a difficult read for me is Cuthbert-Alba. Both have barnstormed their way into the Final Four, both are #1-2 in average scoring margin (Cuthbert +30.75, Alba +24.25), and both have their consistently loyal and high followings less subject to that of the opposition (Cuthbert #1 in total votes, while Alba has higher total votes than Upton and less deviation in total votes than Theron). Hard to ignore Cuthbert's metrics (in several ways), but as Alba is the only remaining non-blonde, Cuthbert may be subject to what I can only term the "Hayek Phenomenon", as this match may be close throughout.
Remember, there are no losers here ...