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Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:47 pm
by Reydituto
Yes, it went chalk, but let's put that aside for a moment ...

First the odds, then the actual results:

(1) Kate Upton PICK'EM (8) Alyssa Milano Upton 34-24 10
(4) Charlize Theron -8 (5) Salma Hayek Theron 30-27 3
(3) Elisha Cuthbert -11.5 (6) Emmanuelle Chriqui Cuthbert 39-13 26
(2) Jessica Alba -9 (7) Kate Beckinsale Alba 33-18 15

So 3/4 higher seeds covered, as well as 2/3 favorites (since Upton-Milano was a Pick'em). Not a great job of handicapping the races, but not awful either, as the two heavy favorites ran away with their matches, and the the two closer races, for factors undiscovered or unexplained, remained closer.

Now, after much deliberation and numbers crunching, the Final Four odds:

(1) Upton -1 (4) Theron
(3) Cuthbert -5.5 (2) Alba

Upton-Theron is more of a gut call than relying on the math, maybe should be a Pick'em, but Upton is actually gaining momentum in total votes - 34 was her highest vote totals of the tournament - while Theron has lost momentum over the last two rounds and is showing serious vulnerability after a last minute escape over Salma and her Hayeks. A week ago, I'd probably have Theron favored by 6-7, as Upton remains the most polarizing team in the field with a loud and vocal anti-Upton minority wanting her to go home, but she keeps surviving and advancing. Still, no result would surprise me in this match, worthy of the title game.

More of a difficult read for me is Cuthbert-Alba. Both have barnstormed their way into the Final Four, both are #1-2 in average scoring margin (Cuthbert +30.75, Alba +24.25), and both have their consistently loyal and high followings less subject to that of the opposition (Cuthbert #1 in total votes, while Alba has higher total votes than Upton and less deviation in total votes than Theron). Hard to ignore Cuthbert's metrics (in several ways), but as Alba is the only remaining non-blonde, Cuthbert may be subject to what I can only term the "Hayek Phenomenon", as this match may be close throughout.

Remember, there are no losers here ...

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:08 pm
by Reydituto
Reydituto wrote:Remember, there are no losers here ...
Except for maybe azgreg, who apparently is incensed at backing the losing team in all four matchups to the point of throwing a GIF fit, taking his vote and going home ...

Image

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 5:06 pm
by azcat49
Cuthbert will win the whole thing. I went with her on the money line Rey at 9-2. Upton was 5-2 while Alba was 3-1 followed by Charlize at 4-1

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 5:31 pm
by 77HoyaCat4Ever
Alba and Theron are the two hottest remaining.

Fact.

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:00 pm
by gumby
77HoyaCat4Ever wrote:Alba and Theron are the two hottest remaining.

Fact.
I agree with the old man, which means both will lose.

I think both are equipped to stand up under the hotter lights of the Final Four. Their strengths are more evenly distributed throughout their body of work. Their resumes and paths to the final reveal an ability to deal with adversity, not to mention perversity.

It's time to let the talent play! Tits and blond hair are not talent. They may not even be real. Cuthbert is 5-2. That's an imp, not a woman. Plus, she's Canadian! Upton is couldn't spell "SI" if you spotted her the "S" and the "I." Do you really want an all-blonde final? Do you want to be THAT cliche?

Vote for non-blonde Americans! And one South African. Then back to the American!

One shining moment ...

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:42 pm
by azgreg
Reydituto wrote:
Reydituto wrote:Remember, there are no losers here ...
Except for maybe azgreg, who apparently is incensed at backing the losing team in all four matchups to the point of throwing a GIF fit, taking his vote and going home ...

Image
I was just backing the underdogs man.

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:48 pm
by SCCat
77HoyaCat4Ever wrote:Alba and Theron are the two hottest remaining.

Fact.
I agree. If you're talking about classical beauty on a 1-10 scale I would consider both Alba and Theron 9s while I think I would give both Upton and Cuthbert 8s.

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:52 pm
by 77HoyaCat4Ever
I would point out that I am not much older than Gumby and I have excellent taste in women.

I would Travel with Charlize

or roll with Celestial Alba

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:17 pm
by JMarkJohns
Cuthbert might be underappreciated as #3 overall.

She has classic beauty and can be drop-dead sexy.

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:39 pm
by Longhorned
I will fight for/stick with Upton until the final vote. I wasn't voting for her early on, but her competition has gotten weaker the further she advances.

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 6:56 am
by CalStateTempe
cuthbert.

Sloppy seconds and all.

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Tue Dec 30, 2014 7:06 am
by PieceOfMeat
I'm sticking with my pick of Theron over Alba to win it all.

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2014 2:42 pm
by Reydituto
77HoyaCat4Ever wrote:Alba and Theron are the two hottest remaining.

Fact.
Technically, that's an opinion.
gumby wrote:Tits and blond hair are not talent. They may not even be real.
Upton's tits are real, and they are spectacular, for now ...

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:14 pm
by 77HoyaCat4Ever
Reydituto wrote:
77HoyaCat4Ever wrote:Alba and Theron are the two hottest remaining.

Fact.
Technically, that's an opinion.


Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:02 pm
by JMarkJohns
This is happening tomorrow.

Week following we'll start up the new batch of polls.

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:12 pm
by CalStateTempe
I can't believe I am going to propose to following for the next hot or not poll and tourney, give my posting history on the other site and how I routinely would take a dig at this annoying person any chance I could get.

I want Taylor Swift, of the 2014-2015 vintage. Legs of daaaaaaaaayyyyyyysssss.

She and her latest anthem for all slam-pigs, Blank Spaces, gets my heart racing. She finally captured and/or is embracing her sexiness as a marketing tool.

If we are playing M/F/K, she'd be the F prior to the K. Marriage to her would be a death sentence. But currently, she is yummy.

Re: Hot/Not: The Final Four Odds

Posted: Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:22 pm
by 77HoyaCat4Ever
I'd rather screw a telephone pole than Taylor Swift