Re: Conference Realignment
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2022 5:34 pm
It's the same as "old money" snobs turning up their noses at "new money" people.
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It's the same as "old money" snobs turning up their noses at "new money" people.
I'm fine with sticking with the PAC-Whatever as long as its the fiscally optimal solution (which I find hard to believe). If the P10 can negotiate a media rights contract that is at least equivalent to what we would get in an expanded Big12 then I won't argue.........but if we are turning down a better TV contract to avoid rubbing shoulders with Baylor/TCU/TTech then I will be pissed.
I believe that the BIG is committed to AAU accreditation,with the obvious exception of Notre Dame (an excellent undergraduate university, just not one that is focused on research) because ND is as big a cash cow as there is in college football...CatsbyAZ wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:19 pmBut at what point are we fooling ourselves to believe these conferences want to bother with academics too when all the power moves are prompted by money grabs for media markets? College sports and its conference alliances are driven purely by dollars and viewerships, not Northwestern's top rated school of journalism. Let's stop fooling ourselves. If an Arizona Vs Grand Canyon U home and home fills the arenas and turns on more TVs screens than Arizona Vs Dartmouth then GCU's academics instantly turn into a back burner matter.pc in NM wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 11:25 am
It's not about merely the quality of the academics.
AAU membership (65 members) is by invitation only, and requires approval by 75% of the current membership. The "Association of American Universities" (AAU) is an organization of American research universities devoted to maintaining a strong system of academic research and education.
Oregon also believes their better than the PAC12. First chance they get they are bolting too. The writing is on the wall. Oregon will be announcing their departure within a couple years if not this year. And no, the BIG 12 is not mid major and has more stability than ours. People have been calling our conference a glorified mid major for years and now things are going to change for the positive especially after the departure of two MAJOR flagship schools? I guess you can also add places like Boise and Fresno with the Portland's and Frisco's (which are two cities the PAC doesn't have a school in btw.).AzCatFan2 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:47 pm The PAC without the LA schools may be mid major. But do is the BIG 12 if they only add Arizona, ASu, Utah and Colorado. If this is the case, I'd rather stick with Portland, Seattle, and San Francisco over Lubbock, Stillwater, and Lawrence. Now, if we can convince Oregon and UW to come with us to the BIG 12, that's a different story. But Oregon believes it's better than the BIG 12, and isn't about to move.
This is accurate.KillerKlown wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 10:49 pmOregon also believes their better than the PAC12. First chance they get they are bolting too. The writing is on the wall. Oregon will be announcing their departure within a couple years if not this year. And no, the BIG 12 is not mid major and has more stability than ours. People have been calling our conference a glorified mid major for years and now things are going to change for the positive especially after the departure of two MAJOR flagship schools? I guess you can also add places like Boise and Fresno with the Portland's and Frisco's (which are two cities the PAC doesn't have a school in btw.).AzCatFan2 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 08, 2022 9:47 pm The PAC without the LA schools may be mid major. But do is the BIG 12 if they only add Arizona, ASu, Utah and Colorado. If this is the case, I'd rather stick with Portland, Seattle, and San Francisco over Lubbock, Stillwater, and Lawrence. Now, if we can convince Oregon and UW to come with us to the BIG 12, that's a different story. But Oregon believes it's better than the BIG 12, and isn't about to move.
First, you should do metro areas instead of cities. The city of Portland, OR has about 670,000 residents. But metro area has over 2 million. Seattle, about 750,000, but metro area of over 4 million.Merkin wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 9:32 am Manhattan, KS
Nearest city with pop. 50,000+: Topeka, KS (49.3 miles , pop. 122,377).
Nearest city with pop. 200,000+: Kansas City, MO (109.3 miles , pop. 441,545).
Nearest city with pop. 1,000,000+: Dallas, TX (442.2 miles , pop. 1,188,580).
What's close to Pullman WA?
Nearest city with pop. 50,000+: Spokane Valley, WA (65.1 miles , pop. 89,755).
Nearest city with pop. 200,000+: East Seattle, WA (242.6 miles , pop. 480,100).
Nearest city with pop. 1,000,000+: Los Angeles, CA (877.0 miles , pop. 3,694,820).
Corvallis, OR?
Nearest city with pop. 50,000+: Salem, OR (27.7 miles , pop. 136,924).
Nearest city with pop. 200,000+: Northwest Clackamas, OR (65.6 miles , pop. 224,220).
Nearest city with pop. 1,000,000+: Los Angeles, CA (770.7 miles , pop. 3,694,820).
Yeah no kidding. Hitching our wagon to other schools who couldn't give a shit less if we live or die as opposed to even remotely attempting to control our own destiny is a great ideaKillerKlown wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 10:43 amAnd Oregon and UW are fine with that because their adding an eject button to our wagons james bond style. I trust Oregon about as much as an East Asian orphan getting a raise from Phil Knight.
Oregon and Washington are the two best football programs "in play" considering the Pac-12 is down to 10 teams; however, there is a reason they haven't been considered prominently in realignment. Industry sources say neither brings requisite value to the Big Ten ($80 million-$100 million per year). The Pac-12 schools most prominently mentioned for the Big 12 are the so-called "Four Corners" schools: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah.
The Big 12 has been told by TV rights advisors that the two most important considerations for expansion are brand and geography. Geography pushed Oregon and Washington to the margins. (That doesn't mean the likes of Arizona and Arizona are necessarily "brands.")
OuchRatings matter. They matter more when a 9-3 Oklahoma from the SEC might have a better chance of getting into a playoff than a 12-1 Oklahoma State from the Big 12.
One industry source called Oregon and Washington "tweeners" in realignment. They are certainly not USC and UCLA in terms of branding and marketability, but they're not Arizona and Arizona State, either. That's what realignment has revealed: The real things that make college football relevant to the only people that matter -- TV executives, programmers, advertisers -- are being exposed in increasing and specific detail..
Without Oregon and Washington, the Pac-12 might fall apart. With them, it may not matter.
What's worse, is that ASU has an even worse administration which supported Larry Scott way too long and is still looking to keep the PAC together. No way the ABOR will allow UA and ASU to go to different conferences.
The Pac without the LA schools isn't great for ASU either. For football both the Big 12 and remaining in the Pac 12 would be a step down from where we are right now but we know Oregon will leave the first chance it gets and at least most of the other Big 12 schools don't have other suitors.Merkin wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 2:39 pmWhat's worse, is that ASU has an even worse administration which supported Larry Scott way too long and is still looking to keep the PAC together. No way the ABOR will allow UA and ASU to go to different conferences.
Although the UC regents didn't seem to object to UCLA leaving the PAC and keeping Cal but guessing the UC system has much more independent schools than the ABOR allows. After all, the UC regents don't require their schools to play FCS schools like the ABOR does.
The thing is the longer we stay the more we lose and that's including $. And it's only going to get worse. We can't afford to get stuck in a mid major conference for a long period because of a b.s. contract. I'm sure the PAC higher ups are already looking for ways to keep schools in the conference off one sided contracts so another USC/UCLA departure doesn't happen. ( Like the ACC/ESPN 2036 contract) I rather us try to "controll our own destiny" than to break out the knee pads and beg OU and UW to take us with them hoping to get "lucky". And since when does Arizona ever get lucky?AzCatFan2 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 3:46 pm There are no schools in the BIG 12 after Texas and OK leave worth more than Oregon and UW. Why leave them just so we can "control our own destiny!" Rushing headlong into a fire is controlling your own destiny too, but it's obviously a stupid idea.
Hitch our wagons to Oregon and UW. If we're lucky, wherever they land, we land there too. And if that's the BIG 12, then fine.
If Oregon and UW hit the eject button and leave us for say the BIG 10, the BIG 12 will still be there. The BIG 12 will be looking to respond and become conference that can compete with the SEC and BIG 10. At this point, what other schools besides the leftover PAC schools would be better for the BIG 12 at this point?
Our options are try and stay with Oregon and UW, or soft land in the BIG 12 without the two NW schools. Option one has the potential to be better for us. Patience is sometimes the best strategy, and the only reason we should jump headfirst to the BIG 12 now is we think that door will close in the future. Which isn't too likely.
Exactly. And as posted above, typo and all, UA and ASU are not desirable brands. Especially the disaster UA football has been, and ASU football will be.KillerKlown wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 4:10 pm The thing is the longer we stay the more we lose and that's including $. And it's only going to get worse. We can't afford to get stuck in a mid major conference for a long period because of a b.s. contract. I'm sure the PAC higher ups are already looking for ways to keep schools in the conference off one sided contracts so another USC/UCLA departure doesn't happen. ( Like the ACC/ESPN 2036 contract) I rather us try to "controll our own destiny" than to break out the knee pads and beg OU and UW to take us with them hoping to get "lucky". And since when does Arizona ever get lucky?
RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 12:46 pm "The Big 12 has been told by TV rights advisors that the two most important considerations for expansion are brand and geography. Geography pushed Oregon and Washington to the margins. (That doesn't mean the likes of Arizona and Arizona are necessarily "brands.")
Oregon isn't signing an ACC type contract that will tie them down for a decade. Neither should we. The PAC 12 without LA is not sustainable long term. Everybody knows that too. If ESPN presents this as our only option, don't sign it. We know Oregon won't.KillerKlown wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 4:10 pmThe thing is the longer we stay the more we lose and that's including $. And it's only going to get worse. We can't afford to get stuck in a mid major conference for a long period because of a b.s. contract. I'm sure the PAC higher ups are already looking for ways to keep schools in the conference off one sided contracts so another USC/UCLA departure doesn't happen. ( Like the ACC/ESPN 2036 contract) I rather us try to "controll our own destiny" than to break out the knee pads and beg OU and UW to take us with them hoping to get "lucky". And since when does Arizona ever get lucky?AzCatFan2 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 3:46 pm There are no schools in the BIG 12 after Texas and OK leave worth more than Oregon and UW. Why leave them just so we can "control our own destiny!" Rushing headlong into a fire is controlling your own destiny too, but it's obviously a stupid idea.
Hitch our wagons to Oregon and UW. If we're lucky, wherever they land, we land there too. And if that's the BIG 12, then fine.
If Oregon and UW hit the eject button and leave us for say the BIG 10, the BIG 12 will still be there. The BIG 12 will be looking to respond and become conference that can compete with the SEC and BIG 10. At this point, what other schools besides the leftover PAC schools would be better for the BIG 12 at this point?
Our options are try and stay with Oregon and UW, or soft land in the BIG 12 without the two NW schools. Option one has the potential to be better for us. Patience is sometimes the best strategy, and the only reason we should jump headfirst to the BIG 12 now is we think that door will close in the future. Which isn't too likely.
So what are we waiting for? -N- Wait for other options when we may only have one? Because we're already at that point.AzCatFan2 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 4:42 pmOregon isn't signing an ACC type contract that will tie them down for a decade. Neither should we. The PAC 12 without LA is not sustainable long term. Everybody knows that too. If ESPN presents this as our only option, don't sign it. We know Oregon won't.KillerKlown wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 4:10 pmThe thing is the longer we stay the more we lose and that's including $. And it's only going to get worse. We can't afford to get stuck in a mid major conference for a long period because of a b.s. contract. I'm sure the PAC higher ups are already looking for ways to keep schools in the conference off one sided contracts so another USC/UCLA departure doesn't happen. ( Like the ACC/ESPN 2036 contract) I rather us try to "controll our own destiny" than to break out the knee pads and beg OU and UW to take us with them hoping to get "lucky". And since when does Arizona ever get lucky?AzCatFan2 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 3:46 pm There are no schools in the BIG 12 after Texas and OK leave worth more than Oregon and UW. Why leave them just so we can "control our own destiny!" Rushing headlong into a fire is controlling your own destiny too, but it's obviously a stupid idea.
Hitch our wagons to Oregon and UW. If we're lucky, wherever they land, we land there too. And if that's the BIG 12, then fine.
If Oregon and UW hit the eject button and leave us for say the BIG 10, the BIG 12 will still be there. The BIG 12 will be looking to respond and become conference that can compete with the SEC and BIG 10. At this point, what other schools besides the leftover PAC schools would be better for the BIG 12 at this point?
Our options are try and stay with Oregon and UW, or soft land in the BIG 12 without the two NW schools. Option one has the potential to be better for us. Patience is sometimes the best strategy, and the only reason we should jump headfirst to the BIG 12 now is we think that door will close in the future. Which isn't too likely.
Again, the BIG 12V doors aren't closing on us any time soon. We may not get lucky, and the BIG 12 may be our only option. But until this point, let's see what the other options are. What do we have to lose?
What we do know is that we can never have nice things….EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:49 pm All I know is none of us have any idea what is going to happen and neither does our conference or our administration.
What are the chances, if we wait, on losing out on a BIG 12 invite? Do we know any details of a potential PAC TV deal? If the chances are low we won't get a BIG 12 invite, then we lose nothing by waiting to see if a miracle comes our way.KillerKlown wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:38 pm "A potential better deal for us", How? We have no leverage and no football team to offer.
Luck and miracles huh? Well athletic departments are a buissness now and running a business off luck and miracles is bad for business. We'll just have to agree to disagree.AzCatFan2 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:53 pmWhat are the chances, if we wait, on losing out on a BIG 12 invite? Do we know any details of a potential PAC TV deal? If the chances are low we won't get a BIG 12 invite, then we lose nothing by waiting to see if a miracle comes our way.KillerKlown wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:38 pm "A potential better deal for us", How? We have no leverage and no football team to offer.
Do you really think a BIG 12 invite isn't coming if we wait? If we have nothing to lose, then we risk nothing hoping for luck and miracles. But act now, miracle happens, but we're stuck in the BIG 12, that's a risk I think we shouldn't take.KillerKlown wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 7:18 pmLuck and miracles huh? Well athletic departments are a buissness now and running a business off luck and miracles is bad for business. We'll just have to agree to disagree.AzCatFan2 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:53 pmWhat are the chances, if we wait, on losing out on a BIG 12 invite? Do we know any details of a potential PAC TV deal? If the chances are low we won't get a BIG 12 invite, then we lose nothing by waiting to see if a miracle comes our way.KillerKlown wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 6:38 pm "A potential better deal for us", How? We have no leverage and no football team to offer.
The PAC. ACC is locked into a TV contract with a large buy out until 2035. Why would ESPN, who is getting that content cheap for the next decade want that to change?
Yeah every Pac-12 school is a free agent at the end of the 2023-2024 season. Needless to say the Pac schools are the most agile to leave if they wanted to.
That is my understanding too. They had to announce by June 30th which they did. Thinking that's the end of the Fiscal Year, since July 1st starts the new FY for many entities.Postmaster wrote: ↑Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:21 am I thought the LA schools announced by a certain date so they could leave at end of 2024.
Now that that date has passed, won’t the rest of PAC schools have to wait until 2025 to leave? If they announce by end of June, 2023?
They announced when they did because it took them completely out of TV rights negotiations, which were going to begin this next fiscal year. There's literally nothing binding any Pac-12 school to the Pac-12 beyond 2024 at the moment.Postmaster wrote: ↑Sun Jul 10, 2022 9:21 am I thought the LA schools announced by a certain date so they could leave at end of 2024.
Now that that date has passed, won’t the rest of PAC schools have to wait until 2025 to leave? If they announce by end of June, 2023?
Well we know that presently an offer from the B1G is not forthcoming for O and UW, so if the 4 corners bolt to the Big 12, does it force the hand of O and UW? They aren't gonna stay in the PAC 6, that's for sure. If the B1G doesn't want them then what other landing spot do they have. Are they poised to have a couple of banner years in a row that boost their profile enough to get an invite? Hell we almost beat Oregon last year and we almost went winless.AzCatFan2 wrote: ↑Sat Jul 09, 2022 3:46 pm There are no schools in the BIG 12 after Texas and OK leave worth more than Oregon and UW. Why leave them just so we can "control our own destiny!" Rushing headlong into a fire is controlling your own destiny too, but it's obviously a stupid idea.
Hitch our wagons to Oregon and UW. If we're lucky, wherever they land, we land there too. And if that's the BIG 12, then fine.
If Oregon and UW hit the eject button and leave us for say the BIG 10, the BIG 12 will still be there. The BIG 12 will be looking to respond and become conference that can compete with the SEC and BIG 10. At this point, what other schools besides the leftover PAC schools would be better for the BIG 12 at this point?
Our options are try and stay with Oregon and UW, or soft land in the BIG 12 without the two NW schools. Option one has the potential to be better for us. Patience is sometimes the best strategy, and the only reason we should jump headfirst to the BIG 12 now is we think that door will close in the future. Which isn't too likely.