Bear Down Wildcats

Jefe wrote:

Beachcat97 wrote:What a weird season. In the conversation for #1 to begin the season. Now we’re on a collision course with the bubble.

Yeah, no words. Best to laugh and move on.

And asu up 12 with 7 left

Can't say enough about leadership on the court. We don't have it this year. Who would have thought Kadeem Allen would have been such a huge huge loss. You can gather as many talented players as you want, but you need a natural leader. I'm not sure if that's hard to identify in the recruiting process because they're still so young. Rawle is probably the closest thing we have, but he's not a general like TJ Mcconnell, Kadeem Allen, Nick Johnson, etc. Good teams have leaders who just know how to get everyone else playing better around them.

Again, it's not a knock on Trier, Ayton, Ristic, PJC. They just don;t have it in their DNA. Watch film from the days of TJ and see how much more energy and motivation those teams have. You can blame Miller for the lack of recruiting a leader. But that's really what we are missing. Very interesting book out right now called "The Captain Class" by Sam Walker. Great read. Pretty much shows that all great teams had one thing in common: a born leader.

I want to like this team. I like watching them play most of the time. But the personalities don't seem to mesh. Their playing styles don't seem to mesh. It feels like 5 guys playing for themselves rather than one great team.

As for the future? I don't know if any of the incoming freshmen can take over as leader. If somehow Rawle stays (he hasnt helped his stock at all) maybe another year and being healthy and an upperclassman tranforms him a bit. But this could be a problem for a while.

No reason this team cant give this effort every night.

I just saw a sign in the UVA crowd that read

Everybody
"Something"
Packline
Now

To spell out ESPN

rgdeuce wrote:No reason this team cant give this effort every night.

No reason. Stand your round. Bear down.

How bout it??? Bring that to Tempe Thursday so we can wax the devils

rgdeuce wrote:No reason this team cant give this effort every night.

Arizona won partly because they killed USC on the boards like a more talented team with two 7-footers should be doing against a zone. But unlike in so many previous games, Arizona both rebounded AND defended. Over the course of the game, they got about 12 more defensive stops than they would have had if they’d brought the effort we saw against UCLA. Adding to that, they kept their focus and protected the ball. Taken altogether, the result was a lopsided win over a really good team.

All three conference losses result from poor effort and lack of focus in the first half. Another contributing problem is defending or rebounding, but not both. I have no idea what it would take to bring effort and focus for several tourney games in a row, but if they can, they’ll be able to cover up their defensive limitations enough to do something special, because their offense just clicks when they get stops and rebound.

rgdeuce wrote:No reason this team cant give this effort every night.

Amazing

Longhorned wrote:
Arizona won partly because they killed USC on the boards like a more talented team with two 7-footers should be doing against a zone. But unlike in so many previous games, Arizona both rebounded AND defended. Over the course of the game, they got about 12 more defensive stops than they would have had if they’d brought the effort we saw against UCLA. Adding to that, they kept their focus and protected the ball. Taken altogether, the result was a lopsided win over a really good team.

Well, that and the Longhorned reverse jinx.

I’m happy to see them recover from the loss and play a very solid game 48 hours later. Give Miller credit. Give Rawle credit. And wow, give Deuce credit. He’s getting better and better with his 10-15 footers.

Toughest part of the season begins on Thursday.

That's what's so frustrating about this team. They obviously can do it at times. Just when you think we're locked in to disappointment, you see the flashes of something more.

Spaceman Spiff wrote:That's what's so frustrating about this team. They obviously can do it at times. Just when you think we're locked in to disappointment, you see the flashes of something more.

Yep. So this pattern is going to continue into March and lead to an early round defeat. Or our guys are gonna realize the opportunity they have, kick it up a few levels, and make Tucson very happy.

I just watched the USC game again to see what the plus/minus for score was when Ristic and Ayton were on the floor together. I counted the score at -13 when they were in together. That is pretty horrible when you think about us winning by 14. I will say it again. I like it much better when they are not on the floor together.

Rakocevic killed us when he was rolling to the basket after setting ball screens. Ristic was usually the culprit for not recovering quickly or weak side help not being there. Alkins also got beat off the dribble several times. We simply don't move our feet.

Olsondogg wrote:

Olsondogg wrote:

YoDeFoe wrote:Purdue is exceptionally good. Not sure why there’s a desire to discount that.

I asked a question...not trying to discount anything...but whats their stellar victories?

Still wondering

Still wondering

PHXCATS wrote:

Jefe wrote:

Beachcat97 wrote:What a weird season. In the conversation for #1 to begin the season. Now we’re on a collision course with the bubble.

I have no idea why you think that would be funny. Lose tomorrow and UA will be unranked. 6 losses. 5 to unranked teams. 1 win vs a RPI top 25 team. That is getting to be in the bubble conversation.

Right now a 6 from CBS and dropping quickly

LOL

There’s a lot riding on these final five reg season games. 4-1 gets us the Pac title and probably a 4 seed. Any worse than that and we’re probably looking at a 5.

The USC win makes the bubble talk go away. We’d have to go something like 1-4 over the next 5 to be on the bubble.

From Seth Davis on his Buy Sell report

Arizona (20-6, No. 13 AP, No. 24 KenPom)

Rating: Sell

December rating: Buy

The Wildcats are ranked 106th in the country in defensive efficiency. Think about that. They are big, strong and athletic, and they have one of the best rim protectors and rebounders in the country in DeAndre Ayton. How could they possibly be that bad on defense? The answer is that they don’t know better or they’re not committed, or both. It was disheartening to watch UCLA go into McKale Center on Thursday and hang 82 points on this team. I have been driving the Arizona bandwagon for much of the season – I was in the minority of AP voters that slotted the Cats No. 1 over Duke in the preseason – but I have seen enough to believe that Arizona is not good enough to make the Final Four and could very well be ripe for an early-round upset.

Now he's quoting Seth Davis.

Machina going Machina.

Seth Davis is famously terrible with his March forecasts. If he's predicting an early exit, I expect a damn NC.

Beachcat97 wrote:Seth Davis is famously terrible with his March forecasts. If he's predicting an early exit, I expect a damn NC.

Look I cant stand the guy, but it is interesting to see that a national writer sees the same things we have been seeing, lack of effort and heart and that being the reason for the season not going as planned

It's interesting that a person sees what other people see. That's where we are at now.

PHXCATS wrote:

Beachcat97 wrote:Seth Davis is famously terrible with his March forecasts. If he's predicting an early exit, I expect a damn NC.

Look I cant stand the guy, but it is interesting to see that a national writer sees the same things we have been seeing, lack of effort and heart and that being the reason for the season not going as planned

I still think that's a fairly superficial assessment of this AZ team. He could've gathered this impression by reading game recaps. Again, Davis is not the best prognosticator of what will happen in March. Listen to Jay Bilas. That guy knows his shit.

Who cares what Seth Davis or Andy Katz think? I don't need their input to validate my own opinions. Most people on this board know a helluva lot more about Arizona basketball and basketball in general than those hacks. They never played the game. Competing in the highest level of high school basketball gives anyone an edge over a writer who never laced 'em up. They may be able to evaluate stats and numbers, but if youve competed you have an innate ability to recognize things a writer just can't see.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... op-30-list" target="_blank

Olsondogg wrote:

Olsondogg wrote:

Olsondogg wrote:

YoDeFoe wrote:Purdue is exceptionally good. Not sure why there’s a desire to discount that.

I asked a question...not trying to discount anything...but whats their stellar victories?

Still wondering

Still wondering

Still wondering

How Arizona beat ASU:

Arizona was in trouble, and so they pulled ASU into the ditch and beat the shit out of them.

Longhorned wrote:How Arizona beat ASU:

Arizona was in trouble, and so they pulled ASU into the ditch and beat the shit out of them.

Technical win for sure

Longhorned wrote:How Arizona beat ASU:

Arizona was in trouble, and so they pulled ASU into the ditch and beat the shit out of them.

It's like running the ball down your opponent's throat when they know you're going to run the ball and you run it anyway. Right between the tackles and just pound the shit out of ASU.

zonagrad wrote:

Longhorned wrote:How Arizona beat ASU:

Arizona was in trouble, and so they pulled ASU into the ditch and beat the shit out of them.

It's like running the ball down your opponent's throat when they know you're going to run the ball and you run it anyway. Right between the tackles and just pound the shit out of ASU.

Exactly, Zonagrad.

Longhorned wrote:How Arizona beat ASU:

Arizona was in trouble, and so they pulled ASU into the ditch and beat the shit out of them.

So fucking true.

Great game.

3 more wins for the Pac title. Proud of this team for hanging in there. They look really, really bad at times, but man, when they’re clicking...watch out.

ASU Game Notes

The tone was set from our first offensive possession. ASU was going to muck up the lane, pack it in, pressure the ball, deny post entry, and double Ayton and Ristic on the catch. It didn’t work well early, mainly because we started off hot from three and jumped out to a huge lead.

Additionally, we did a great job getting stops and then pushing the ball in transition. This was a reason for our early success, as ASU’s pressure was negated by ours. It led to driving lanes, playing inside out, and open shots.

Offensively, ASU’s game plan was similar to the last time we met. They ran a TON of horns, lifted sets, high ball screen action. Anything they could do to lift our bigs, and clear the lane for them to attack the basket.

13:30 1H Molly McGrath with some insight from Miller during the under 16 TO. Telling the guys they have to pick up at the level of the screen to prevent the ASU guards from attacking into the lane. Its a basic concept that everyone teaches in typical PNR coverages, outside of drop coverage. This is something ive been talking about in regards to how we defend middle ball screen actions. Also, Miller’s reasoning as to why he doesn’t run much drop coverage (NBA style, which we have run briefly this season and something I suggested when we were struggling), because he doesn’t want guards in the lane at all. Good piece of info.

12:25 1H: Miller calls out a re-screen, high ball screen set with Trier and Ristic. Ristic sets up a dummy screen for Trier going right. Instead, Trier goes over, Ristic immediately flips the screen to gain better position on Martin for Trier to crossover and drive left. Common NBA-style flipped re-screen set.

Trier drives left, and ASU’s ball screen coverage calls to hedge/show and push Trier off his line. However, Trier drags Ristic’s man all the way across the floor on the hedge. Trier hits Ristic for a wide open three because Holder doesn’t come off Smith on the weak side wing, and White can’t recover in time due to the spacing. Good call and that was definitely out of film study and game planning.
11:33 1H Not the same set as the first Ristic three, as this was a horns set, but same ball screen coverage from ASU. Dusan makes them pay from the exact same location, just with Trier making the read and drawing Ristic’s defender to the sideline again, but going right.

10:55 1H: I feel it’s important to note Ristic’s progress defensively. Great example here, as Justice turns the corner to attack into the lane. Ristic comes off his man to help middle, takes a step up, and actually deflects the ball for a steal. His issue has always been not being aggressive enough. Instead, he would sit and wait at the rim, instead of not stepping up to help cutoff penetration. That has been his biggest development, to me, the last month+.

9:03 1H: This will be on a reel for Miller to show guys why we don’t play for turnovers defensively. Holder drives left off a ball screen against Trier. Ayton is defending his man (Mitchell) in the strong side corner. Ayton helps, like he should, and together they cut off the Holder drive. However, Ayton begins lunging in for a trap and steal, his man cuts baseline, and Holder nails him for a slam over Lee’s help.

5:58 1H: Justice is hot, having just hit a pull-up three in transition. This possession Hurley makes a good read and uses Justice as the screener for Holder. PJC and Smith switch, Holder comes off a ball screen driving left, and Justice who has set up on the block, runs PJC off a pin down from White for three. Really no reason to switch that action, as it was initially set 30 feet from the basket. Justice can shoot right over PJC with no problem. However, this would lead to something we see more of in the second half (switching on Justice ball screens).

3:57 1H: Ristic’s lob to Ayton is picked off. We do a great job of getting back and slowing the break. However, Ayton is the last guy back, because he was under the rim, and for some reason decides to jump into his ball screen coverage, even though there is no ball screen. Remy Martin is left alone in the corner in front of the UA bench. Unfortunately, this is the guy Ayton should have cross matched with when he recovered. He is left wide open for three and cuts it to a six point game. Yet another example of what Miller is talking about when he scoffs at our transition defense.

ASU’s defense the last eight minutes of the first half was very good. Swarming the paint, forcing TOs, not allowing easy looks, contesting everything at the rim, and limiting our paint touches. Also hitting big shots on the other end.

2nd half

ASU’s ball pressure to deny post entry was as good, or better, when they came out to start the second half. Guys are struggling to get the ball down low. That is the root of our issues offensively, because ASU has been up in everyone’s grill, as much as it pains me to compliment them.

15:25 2H: Justice has been helping off Rawle all game to double the bigs on the touch. Here, Rawle finally makes the read (which I am sure was discussed at the half) and cuts baseline. Ayton is looking for him and makes a great pass over the double for a layup.
This would be an interesting development, because Ayton was making some great reads as a passer in the second half.

I noticed two important adjustments once ASU got into foul trouble with around 12 minutes left. Interesting cross match from ASU with Holder defending Rawle, which he has to with ASU bigs in foul trouble, and Hurley putting out three guards. Rawle has posted him up a few times this half, which helped him provide some value tonight.

Defensively for us, Miller began switching ball screens involving Justice. Dude was killing us, especially Rawle off the bounce, and Miller couldn’t let him get hot again.

5:50 2H: Miller subs PJC back in for Rawle. He can clearly see he can’t defend Justice and has to try with Akot instead.

4:00 2H: A good example of Miller’s adjustment to Justice. ASU in a horns set, which turns into a staggered DHO for Justice coming off the left wing. Instead of trying to hedge, UA switches this. Ayton does a good job cutting him off. However, Justice gives up the ball, gets it back again, and takes Ayton left for another crazy reverse layup. Ristic gets sealed by White and can’t help at the rim. Tied at 63.

The story late was Ayton taking over the game on the offensive glass. Not a single ASU player could compete with him going for the ball. It was a highlight of his athleticism, length, vertical, second jump ability, and touch after grabbing the board and going up in traffic. Dude is so powerful.

1:09 2H: I hate to keep picking on Rawle, but this just didn’t make any sense. It’s a high ball screen with Justice and White. Dusan is walling off the drive, but ready to close out on a switch to keep Justice from attacking or hitting an open three (which we have been doing for quite some time now this half). Rawle should have stayed with White on the dive, but calls to kick out Ristic so he can recover. Rawle heads back to Justice, who is on the left wing, and White is left wide open for a dunk. The help isn’t there, because Ayton is following Mitchell who is filling and replacing top of the key, and is a threat as a shooter. Just terrible communication again. Seems like this happens a few times each half with Rawle.

Since I’ve beaten him up again, let’s discuss a bit. Rawle was terrible all game (3-10, 0-3 from deep, 5 TOs, poor defense). Justice killed him off the bounce tonight, and he has never been much of a defender. Recently, he hasn’t been able to get to the rim like he used to. Doesn’t look as athletic, struggling to attack and weave through traffic, struggling finishing with finesse. If he isn’t hitting his jumpers he isn’t providing much right now. He doesnt look right to me.

Another player note. Akot is active defensively, and does a good job helping, but he easily loses sight of his man. When he recovers he is recovering back to the spot he left his man, not where his man has circled to. As such, now he’s closing out and his man can blow past him with a pump fake. Pretty common sequence, but something he will learn with experience and reps.

Overall, I thought ASU defended well, they hit some big shots, and Justice abused our defense. Clearly, we have to do a better job taking care of the ball, and all the turnovers nearly sabotaged our victory tonight.

Offensively, ASU was able to disrupt what we wanted to do. We were hesitant to get the ball down low against their pressure, they crowded the lane, and we only scored 30 of our 77 points in the paint (I would have expected 10+ more). However, like most games, when we are determined to get the look we want; we get them. Trier was good on both ends of the floor most of the game. I thought Ristic played a good defensive game, but Ayton sealed the deal. ASU had no answer for him on the offensive glass, when he got a touch on the block, and he was able to carve them up with his passing in the second half.

Thanks Clip, that is a really good look into the inner workings of the game!

Awesome, TClip. Seriously, thank you.

Re Seth Davis

Do you all see Ayton as a rim protector?

I don't. He is too far from the rim playing the 4, especially in Miller's defense.

As someone else said, Seth probably reads recaps.

Rawle looked very lively and bouncy vs. USC, and tonight that wasn't there for whatever reason. I really don't think he's damaged goods after seeing him the other night look just fine, so don't think he's lost it, just tonight it didn't come out. His very first shot was as flat as a disk and that set the tone. It wasn't a good game for him. We need big games from Rawle in the tournament. If he plays average/well tonight, we win by 15.

TheGreatCatsby wrote:Rawle looked very lively and bouncy vs. USC, and tonight that wasn't there for whatever reason. I really don't think he's damaged goods after seeing him the other night look just fine, so don't think he's lost it, just tonight it didn't come out. And it wasn't a good game for him. We need big games from Rawle in the tournament. If he plays average/well tonight, we win by 15.

Totally. We also had 20 freaking turnovers. Cut that in half and we win by even more. Our guards have to take better care of the ball. Lots of careless mistakes tonight. Thankfully Ristic and Ayton were huge. Otherwise, might've been a different outcome.

Great post as always, Clip.

The only thing I'd add (and I might just have missed it) is that we separated from ASU on the boards. 44-28 in a game where no other stat really was a decided advantage for us. Ayton did the thing where he was ready to dominate a smaller team.

Great breakdown Clip as always, probably should start a thread titled "game breakdown" or something so they don't get buried here.

Looks like we're finally <100 on adjusted defense at 96.

• Record: 21-6 (11-3)
• RPI: #16

• • Strength of Schedule (SOS): #42
  • Q1: 4-3 (vs 1-25: 1-1)
  • Q2: 6-3 (vs 26-50: 4-1)
  • Q3: 7-0 (vs 51-100: 5-4)

• Kenpom: #21 (+18.76)

• • Adjusted Offense: #10 (120.1)
  • Adjusted Defense: #96 (101.3)
  • Adjusted Tempo: #186 (68.3

• BPI: #20

• • Strength of Record (SOR): #22

• Sargarin: #14
• KPI: #13
• TeamRankings Predictive: #15

Massey composite unfortunately hasn't been updated since Sunday. Also the RPI rankings, RPI SOS and Quadrant wins are the most important things for the selection committee.

Longhorned wrote:How Arizona beat ASU:

Arizona was in trouble, and so they pulled ASU into the ditch and beat the shit out of them.

Love it.

And love the breakdown, Clip - always appreciated.

The past 2 games the Cats have done a pretty god job at preventing dribble penetration. Which is saying something because I thought USC’s and ASU’s guards were going to have a field day getting inside the lane. I hope this is a trend that continues upward because It is probably the greatest defensive issue of this team.

NYCat wrote:• Record: 21-6 (11-3)
• RPI: #16

• • Strength of Schedule (SOS): #42
  • Q1: 4-3 (vs 1-25: 1-1)
  • Q2: 6-3 (vs 26-50: 4-1)
  • Q3: 7-0 (vs 51-100: 5-4)

• Kenpom: #21 (+18.76)

• • Adjusted Offense: #10 (120.1)
  • Adjusted Defense: #96 (101.3)
  • Adjusted Tempo: #186 (68.3

• BPI: #20

• • Strength of Record (SOR): #22

• Sargarin: #14
• KPI: #13
• TeamRankings Predictive: #15

Massey composite unfortunately hasn't been updated since Sunday. Also the RPI rankings, RPI SOS and Quadrant wins are the most important things for the selection committee.

Thanks for posting that NYC. Very helpful.

We seem destined to be a 4 seed, if things hold. Winning out probably gets us into the 2/3 discussion.

I'll be a wee bit surprised if we sweep the Oregons on the road. They're both playing much better. And then our final two at home aren't a walk in the park either.

NYCat wrote:Great breakdown Clip as always, probably should start a thread titled "game breakdown" or something so they don't get buried here.

Excellent idea, NY!

And Clip, as always, Uda f'ing man! You're so generous---thank you!!!

Thank you, thank you, thank you, Clip, even if I did have to read almost everything 2 or 3 times to truly grasp it. That is exactly what I asked (begged ?) you to do.
I agree with you NYCat. We need a special thread for these reviews. They are not average posts and should not get buried.
I tried to do that with my thread titled Tucson Clip instead of Game Breakdown as you suggested., but ALieberman said "No".

This is excellent content for a blog post as a few have mentioned.

DiehardDave37 wrote:Thank you, thank you, thank you, Clip, even if I did have to read almost everything 2 or 3 times to truly grasp it. That is exactly what I asked (begged ?) you to do.
I agree with you NYCat. We need a special thread for these reviews. They are not average posts and should not get buried.
I tried to do that with my thread titled Tucson Clip instead of Game Breakdown as you suggested., but ALieberman said "No".

You realize I was kidding right?!!

No mods are going to stop anyone from starting any thread unless they are inappropriate. I love the idea of a Tucson Clip review thread