An amateur analysis of the state of the defense (long)

[azpenguin]

After last night, I decided to take a look at just where things are on the defense. I wanted to know what happened to depth being that we're four years in. After looking at everything I'm kind of surprised. Here's one of my conclusions - the coaches are not to blame for the current problems at linebacker. Keep reading and you'll see why I came to that conclusion.

(Note - I used info that I could find without digging for too long online. Any corrections are welcome if I have info wrong.)

The 2012 class was put together on the fly. RichRod had very little time to put a class together and it shows. Out of 12 defensive signees in that class, 3 are left. All three are significant contributors, though, so they got that goin' for them, which is nice. The 2013 class was quite a bit better. Out of 12 defensive signees, 7 are still here and they've been good to great for the most part. The 2014 and 2015 classes have pretty much stuck around, which is no surprise since they haven't had a chance to have guys figure out they're not gonna play and then transfer.

Let's look at the linebackers. This is actually the biggest position group on the roster, with 20 guys at LB. The 2012 class has only one left out of five, Cody Ippolito. He was expected to be a key guy this year. 2013 was a great LB class. Some guy named Scooby Wright, Derrick Turituri, and DeAndre Miller were in that class. RJ Morgan, who's busting it out there is part of that class as well. The 2014 class was expected to be even better with Jamardre Cobb and Marquis Ware, plus Antonio Smothers as a transfer. 2015 had only one LB, Kendal Franklin, who looks to be a redshirt, although we'll see at the rate things are going. So what happened?

A lot of it is traced to simple bad luck. Two of the 2012 LB commits medically retired. DeAndre Miller lost most of his first year playing last year to injury. Cobb came in out of shape and then got hurt. Ware came in with a shoulder hurt so badly he couldn't even bench press a bar with no weights. So when Scooby, Turituri and Ippolito got hurt, the guys who should have been ready to step in weren't. Miller has been playing some but he's been dinged up again this year. Smothers hasn't lived up to expectations. The coaches did their best to build quality depth and they got hit with all of this.

There's a bigger problem than linebacker, though. If linebacker is the heart of the 3-3-5, the safeties are the hands. That's where the real depth problem lies. The 2012 safety class features three guys who are playing a lot. Parks, Allah and Lopez are all part of that class. After that - Houston, we have a problem. There was one safety signee in the 2013 class. He's gone. There was one safety signee in the 2014 class. He's gone. There were three in the 2015 class, Flannigan-Fowles, Anthony Mariscal, and Magloire. Magloire is a JC transfer and only has this year and next. Next year your starting safeties are likely Tellas Jones, Magloire, and Flannigan-Fowles unless some of the youngins' step up. There's eight freshmen listed at the position, and sohpomores Carter Hehr and Jarek Hilgers. You compound the issue of the injured linebackers with a very thin safety corps, and there's going to be problems.

Cornerback is by far the youngest position. There are zero seniors in that group. Wayne Capers looked promising but he left. In the 2013 class, the Cats had high hopes with Derek Babiash signed and, well, he's gone. Devin Holiday gets some spot time there. Jarvis McCall Jr. has played and looked pretty good last year but he's also spent time dinged up both this year and last. 2014 had Denson, Devon Brewer, Kwesi Mashack, and JC transfer Patrick Glover who decided to leave. Out of 13 CBs, 10 are underclassmen.

Defensive line, surprisingly, is the position group on D that I'm least worried about. Gilbert and Worthy have been playing a lot, and there's a lot of up-and-comers in that group. Bruno is making noise, Griffin will be a beast, Williams comes in off his redshirt next year, Zellars has played well. The problems with the DL getting to the QB have less to do with the DL and more to do with the injuries at linebacker. Scooby was giving opposing OLs fits and the DL was reaping the rewards.

I'm not too concerned right now with the future of the LB corps. John Kenny comes off his transfer sit-out year next year. Ippolito and Turituri should be back. The longer Scooby is out, the more likely he comes back. Ware may yet come around. Cobb is doing well at fullback but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him get flipped back in the future. Jason Sweet has a great story if nothing else, but I wouldn't be surprised if he at least pushed some guys for a spot on the depth chart. Tre Tyler and RJ Morgan are getting a lot of valuable experience right now. Miller can hopefully stay healthy.

Safety is another story. If the young guys who are buried down the chart don't step up, and the incoming recruits can't contribute quickly, then it's going to continue to be a problem. Next year Parks and Allah won't be patrolling back there. I do think Flannigan-Fowles can be good. I also think that this team really, really misses Jared Tevis. He knew how to play that position as part of the 3-3-5 so well. He might have had his flaws but he was a force to be reckoned with and made a ton of plays.

I'm not too thrilled with the CB play right now obviously, although some of that is compounded by the safety issues. This is a young unit with a lot of athleticism and they'll be good, but these guys need to take things up a notch right now. Not worried about the future of the position.

As for this year, this is what I'm looking for - Scooby returns eventually, Turituri gets healthy, Miller gets to be 100%, and they start plugging in some of the younger guys at safety. Parks, Allah, and Lopez are doing all they can but they can't hold the thing together by themselves. That needs to be fixed and fixed fast.

TL;DR - bad luck at linebacker, the safety position worries me more.

Alright. I'm sure you're going to rip this up, so enjoy.

[azcat49]

Nice write up and thanks for doing it. Probably very accurate but I just have hated the scheme since it was brought in

That said we have improvement the last two years and we lost Pettinato, McNight and the 3 safeties. I did not think those would matter as I felt we would be more athletic bach there and bigger and more experienced on the line.

We can't stop anyone and it is quite disturbing to watch. Maybe a step down in talent vs Oregon St will be the cure. One can hope. I think Casteel can make all the excuses he wants to (he won't make any as it is not his style) but I just hate the passiveness of this defense.

[uacat540]

Arizona really misses Bondo and Grandon. Those guys just had a nose for the ball and were flying around left and right. This year was set up for a year like we are having. It takes Scooby and Ippilito to go down to really open up the defense to a terrible situation. I always thought Scooby was going to take a step back this year due to bondo and Grandon graduating. I think if anything good comes out of this year is that it will make RR and Casteel evaluate talent far better because for every Scooby you have...youll have 3 guys behind him who really are DII talent. I was beyond excited when we landed Ware and Cobb and i hope they make an impact next year.

Last year, Arizona acheived and the South is brutal this year due to all of the upper classman. The south next year should be a bit eaiser and Arizona should have a more favorable schedule. The staffs main goal needs to be holding on to Josh Allen and getting some decent depth. If Arizona can get even Ware to step up to a back up next year, things could turn around.

[RazorsEdgeAZ]

Was a Marquis Ware sighting Saturday. Not sure how many snaps he played but he was credited for an assisted tackle.

Know I'm stating the obvious, but it's not just about contributing to the team. AZ have to field 11 defense starters along with backups. So even though recruits contribute, doesn't mean they would on other teams. But have to go by something. One thing if you're starting and contributing to a defense that is highly ranked, holding opponents, keeping scoring to a minimum. Another when team was healthier like in 2014 and finished 103rd in total defense and near last in conference. And that was last year, with a Scooby Wright that probably on his own hid many of the defensive faults because of his awesomeness and stats.

That was last year even with a Ippolito and Turituri starting 6 and 8 games. Still 103rd. Of course it's worse this year. This year, right now, it's 110th

Good news, Oregon St. right now 111th in Total Offense, averaging 338 yds, 23 points a game.

[catinfl]

Ware played on special teams, but that's a good sign because he wasn't even dressing before.

[azpenguin]

Was a Marquis Ware sighting Saturday. Not sure how many snaps he played but he was credited for an assisted tackle.

Know I'm stating the obvious, but it's not just about contributing to the team. AZ have to field 11 defense starters along with backups. So even though recruits contribute, doesn't mean they would on other teams. But have to go by something. One thing if you're starting and contributing to a defense that is highly ranked, holding opponents, keeping scoring to a minimum. Another when team was healthier like in 2014 and finished 103rd in total defense and near last in conference. And that was last year, with a Scooby Wright that probably on his own hid many of the defensive faults because of his awesomeness and stats.

That was last year even with a Ippolito and Turituri starting 6 and 8 games. Still 103rd. Of course it's worse this year. This year, right now, it's 110th

Good news, Oregon St. right now 111th in Total Offense, averaging 338 yds, 23 points a game.

That's something with the safeties. Last year with Tevis, Bondo and Grandon it meant there was a legit two-deep at safety. The fact that they didn't push to sign more safeties doesn't make a lot of sense for me, other than thinking that they're evaluating ATHs for the position. At LB last year there was only one senior, which tells me they were expecting Scooby, Ippolito, Turituri, Ware, Cobb, Miller and Matthews to hold down the two deep there this year. Recruiting doesn't turn on a dime unfortunately. Best case scenario is that the underclassmen improve next year, Ware (and perhaps Cobb) is able to step in, Scooby stays (the longer he's out, the more likely he stays - it's really hard to make it in the league so draft position is key to maximizing earnings) and Ippolito stays healthy.

[Sid]

Great analysis! I don't know that we win at Stanford even if we're at full strength on Defense.

I was actually ecstatic that we held the trees to (2) consecutive field goals. This depleted defense on the road going up against a veteran QB (Hogan) just needed to get off the damn field.

My gripe is on the other side of the ball. The past tells us we need a serviceable backup QB, plain & simple. I'm at a loss that we can't find a kid that is smart enough to know when it's a critical 3rd down and you can easily scamper for the 1st you get the damn 1st and move the chains. The game was over after that mistake imho. Don't even get me started on skipping balls to the feet of our receivers.

We have no shot without Anu, and that is where my beef lies. Not acceptable in my book this late in Rich Rods tenure at Arizona.

Sid

[Merkin]

Great write up Azpenguin, and comments on Davonte Neal? Didn't see him mentioned.



On offense need to get someone like BJ Denker to backup Anu, who even BJ acknowledged himself to be the smartest guy on the team. But he ran the offense well with a Div III arm.

I think Randall would excel at the triple option, just not the read option. Too soon to tell with Dawkins, but he did have good buzz in camp. Next year Tate and Modster come in and hopefully can redshirt.

[azpenguin]

The hard part about getting a serviceable backup quarterback is that you have to get someone who not only is capable, but who is willing to wait. Good QBs who don't get to start are fairly likely to transfer. Denker happened to be a diamond in the rough who wasn't going to go anywhere. The last two years we've had JC backups, who haven't had that much time in the system. Denker was a unique case who understood things very quickly, had Kadeem as a security blanket, and who was in RR's offense from the start of his coaching tenure at AZ. The complete lack of QB depth Stoops left behind forced RR to take JC guys to try to bridge things. (Heck, some people thought Scroggins was The Next Big Thing and we saw how that panned out.) Right now Solomon, Dawkins, and Werlinger are the only signees out of HS who haven't left in search of playing time elsewhere. Provided Dawkins sticks around, I think we're going to see much better QB depth starting next year. Solomon will be a RS Jr., Dawkins and Werlinger will be RS So., and Tate and Modster will be coming in. Dawkins likely will be the solid #2 QB and after that it'll be a battle. Werlinger has been in the system, and while I like the commits coming in, particular Modster, experience matters for RR, so I wouldn't be surprised to see ZW possibly getting mop-up time next year.

This is a tough offense to master and decision making is more important over physical capabilities. Randall showed that first hand Saturday. Solomon might not have the same kind of wheels and he doesn't have the rocket arm, but he knows where to go with the ball, can deliver it to where it needs to go, and knows when to run. He needs to get better at his reads but he's pretty damn good already. I'm not sure what to make of the whole Dawkins/Randall thing. Dawkins looks to be a better passer. Randall is an athletic freak. We didn't get to see enough of Dawkins to make any informed decisions. His first play he got hit by an free running blindside blitzer and never had a chance. That set up a three and out. If I had to guess, and this is without any inside info, Randall is on the field over Dawkins because of what he can do with his legs.

comments on Davonte Neal? Didn't see him mentioned.

He's the only upperclassman at CB who is playing much at all. I still think he will be good, but there's two things - 1- Pac-12 experience is something that you can't make up for with athleticism; you have to learn how to play the position through game experience. 2 - The depleted linebacking corps affects the blitzing schemes, which means the CBs are having to cover longer and that's asking a lot of any CB in the game. I think when Scooby and Turituri are back, we'll get a better idea of just how far along the corners are. They're getting abused a lot, but again, with the blitz packages not as effective with current personnel, guys will have more time to get open.

[AZarchery]

Shows how truly talented and smart Matt Scott was. Imagine if we had him right now how potent the offense would be.

[azpenguin]

Shows how truly talented and smart Matt Scott was. Imagine if we had him right now how potent the offense would be.

Cats would have been a contender for the Pac if he'd had one more year of eligibility. Imagine the 2013 team with him and Carey, plus that much improved defense. You could easily flip the UW, UCLA and WSU games that year if not more.

[azcat49]

Any QB who can sit back in the pocket with nonpresdure will abuse even the best CB's.

Right now they are in an island with not much hope. I can't believe we are not 12th. Who is #12, yikes

[azgreg]

Any QB who can sit back in the pocket with nonpresdure will abuse even the best CB's.

Right now they are in an island with not much hope. I can't believe we are not 12th. Who is #12, yikes

1. Washington 15.8
2. USC 17.5
3. Utah 18.8
4. Stanford 19.0
5. Colorado 21.4
6. UCLA 22.0
7. California 23.4
8. Oregon State 26.2
9. Washington State 26.5
10. Arizona State 26.8
11. Arizona 35.2
12. Oregon 37.4

http://pac-12.com/content/football-statistics" target="_blank

[BearDown89]

The 2012 class was put together on the fly. RichRod had very little time to put a class together and it shows. Out of 12 defensive signees in that class, 3 are left. All three are significant contributors, though, so they got that goin' for them, which is nice.

That's 75% of the defensive recruits from the 2012 class gone! I don't know anything about typical college football attrition rates, but that's a high number period. You have to think that these are the defections that are killing us today on Defense. Cozens (DL), Capers (DB), Bush-Loo (DL/LB), Thomas (DB), Sanders (DB), Conwell (LB), Dozier (LB), Melvin (DL), and Kelley (DL). These guys would be seniors and rsjuniors in their 4th year now - right in the wheelhouse. You have to believe that at least some of them would've developed as expected and be contributing now. Certainly, Conwell and Dozier were promising LBs getting early playing time and valuable experience in the system who suffered concussions and early medical retirements. I'm sure we're missing them right about now. What happened to Capers? I missed his departure. Also, Anthony Lopez is contributing at Safety from this class, but he's listed as a RB in the recruiting class. Anyway, those numbers say a lot to me about the depth issues we're seeing today. The team effectively lost an entire defensive recruiting class that should be on the field this season.

[azpenguin]

That is indeed a high percentage, but again, RR had to scramble to get a class together. He likes to try to vet recruits beyond just "are they any good?" To try to find guys who like the game enough that they're willing to work hard and stick things out. He's had a lot better luck with subsequent classes sticking around. You always lose some for various reasons, but the 2012 class was pretty much a case that any production you got from them could be considered a win. (Cozens decided to go with baseball, and Capers left without too much info other than he'd been battling injuries and decided to go elsewhere.)

[dirtbags]

it feels as though our lousy numbers on D last season was propped up by some timely and face-saving turnovers. this year, we're not aggressively stripping the ball and forcing turnovers, which makes our defense seem even more abysmal.

[Merkin]

Capers went back home and is playing for Duquesne as a receiver.

http://www.goduquesne.com/sports/m-foot ... 94553.html" target="_blank

[BearDown89]

Capers went back home and is playing for Duquesne as a receiver.

http://www.goduquesne.com/sports/m-foot ... 94553.html" target="_blank

Huh. What do you know. Wasn't even here last year. Didn't notice. Thanks Merk.