Page 14 of 18

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:57 pm
by CopaCat
Pretty great get by Fisch and staff as long as it doesn't piss off Fifita. Would guess Cruz will be transferring out? I can see Redshirting Fifita and having McCloud and De Laura battle it out for the top spot. Plummer takes his rightful place at 3rd string(tough as nails, but clearly not a starting QB). Hopefully De Laura is good enough to enter the draft after next year and then Fifita takes the reigns as a RS Soph. This does bring up a question?
Did Fisch promise Fifita a shot at being a starter this year? Certainly hope not.


On another note, noticed McKenzie Barnes entered the Portal yesterday. I believe that makes 14 transfers now. Do we get any extra spots due to the continued exodus? Or is it strictly 7?

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:02 pm
by Sid
Irish27 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:47 pm
Meltdown? Comedy. The Pac12 Freshman Offensive Player of the year whom happens to be Hawaiian will help Noah immensely as he matures into a starting quarterback. That Polynesian brotherhood is strong as fuck!

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:03 pm
by Carcassdragger
Irish27 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:47 pm
Might or might not happen fully or partially, but it's not as if this jagoff has any legitimate info. Program cancer.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:09 pm
by gronk4heisman
Chief is the same clown who has raised on Fisch non stop for having no answer at qb. Literally nothing would satisfy him other than playing the kids of Dads who dm and make him feel important.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:11 pm
by UAEebs86
gronk4heisman wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:09 pm Chief is the same clown who has raised on Fisch non stop for having no answer at qb. Literally nothing would satisfy him other than playing the kids of Dads who dm and make him feel important.
De Laura, is no Kevin Doyle, amiright?

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:12 pm
by Chicat
No pressure on Fifita to come in and get thrown in the fire right away, so I doubt he’s pissed. He’ll get a chance to compete for the job in year 2 or 3 depending on his development.

Cruz should probably transfer. Maybe Plummer too. McCloud should stick it out.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:21 pm
by azcat49
Not anymore brother, not anymore.

Cruz might have a harder time because he will have to sit a year now and he isn’t even healed up from his injury this season.

Plummer seems likely unless he pulls a rabbit out of his hat and wins the job which I doubt.

Fafita redshirts and learns and becomes the backup his sophomore year after the new kid and McCloud use up their eligibility

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:22 pm
by UAEebs86
I'm still not sold on his coaching, but recruiting-wise, Jedd is a witch.

He could sell a ketchup popsicle to a woman in white gloves.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:25 pm
by azgreg
I'm giving all the credit the new unis.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:29 pm
by azcat49
Anyone know how our friend Chief is feeling these days :)

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:29 pm
by Chicat

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:35 pm
by azcat49
What an asshat chief is. He should be pleased with the acquisition of talent but it blows up his narrative

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:45 pm
by dmjcat
azcat49 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:29 pm Anyone know how our friend Chief is feeling these days :)
He's cheering for Spanish football teams

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:52 pm
by MountainCat
dmjcat wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:45 pm
azcat49 wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:29 pm Anyone know how our friend Chief is feeling these days :)
He's cheering for Spanish football teams
Doyle is going to get injured by halftime of the first game. Good for him, but…

Basically playing professional ball with only high school experience.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:11 am
by OSUCat
Wow, best 1-11 offseason ever?

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:38 am
by AV8RCAT
DrWildcat wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:43 pm Future outlook got a little brighter, a legitimate QB! Fisch and the staff really know how to win the offseason, hope it translates to wins on the field.
Fisch has incredibly created something that arguably the best players available want to be part of, after again arguably the worst season in AZ history. If the transfers were part of it, we might currently have a top 10 class.

I sure wouldn't bet against his success.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:22 am
by EastCoastCat
Image

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:20 am
by Siempre Verde
I’m seeing a lot of appealing talent coming in, but who is blocking for them?

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:24 am
by ChooChooCat
Siempre Verde wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:20 am I’m seeing a lot of appealing talent coming in, but who is blocking for them?
Patience my friend.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:24 am
by MountainCat
Siempre Verde wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:20 am I’m seeing a lot of appealing talent coming in, but who is blocking for them?
They way things have been going, I'm expecting that Jedd may have a couple of portal OLs up his sleeve...

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:27 am
by AV8RCAT
MountainCat wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:24 am
Siempre Verde wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:20 am I’m seeing a lot of appealing talent coming in, but who is blocking for them?
They way things have been going, I'm expecting that Jedd may have a couple of portal OLs up his sleeve...
I expect we will hear some more good news soon.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:30 am
by azgreg
ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:24 am
Siempre Verde wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:20 am I’m seeing a lot of appealing talent coming in, but who is blocking for them?
Patience my friend.
Image

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:38 am
by azcat49
Wait, so we sign a top 20 class.we get the freshman offensive POY who is a QB and now we are going to get some lineman in the portal. All after going 1-11? This is just crazy

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:41 am
by ChooChooCat
azcat49 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:38 am Wait, so we sign a top 20 class.we get the freshman offensive POY who is a QB and now we are going to get some lineman in the portal. All after going 1-11? This is just crazy
There are different ways to sell. Fisch is selling a culture and rising a program back out of the ashes. An attractive culture is very important and the bringing a program back to prominence angle works in recruiting, especially for a new coaching staff.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:44 am
by EastCoastCat
ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:41 am
azcat49 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:38 am Wait, so we sign a top 20 class.we get the freshman offensive POY who is a QB and now we are going to get some lineman in the portal. All after going 1-11? This is just crazy
There are different ways to sell. Fisch is selling a culture and rising a program back out of the ashes. An attractive culture is very important and the bringing a program back to prominence angle works in recruiting, especially for a new coaching staff.
And maybe he's figured out a better way to funnel money to get better players...

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:44 am
by Spaceman Spiff
Chicat wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:29 pm
If he redshirts, he'll have two years at minimum when De Laura's eligibility runs. There's nothing weird about that in CFB, especially for a player who isn't a physical prototype.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:47 am
by Spaceman Spiff
ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:41 am
azcat49 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:38 am Wait, so we sign a top 20 class.we get the freshman offensive POY who is a QB and now we are going to get some lineman in the portal. All after going 1-11? This is just crazy
There are different ways to sell. Fisch is selling a culture and rising a program back out of the ashes. An attractive culture is very important and the bringing a program back to prominence angle works in recruiting, especially for a new coaching staff.
I assume immediately available playing time from a lack of returning talent helps sell some kids too. If you can play, you'll get a chance at Arizona. That's not always the case for teams with more talent.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:09 am
by azcat49
I read yesterday the this WAZZU kid is planning on 2 years and then going to the league(I am sure they all think that). Fafita would RS next year and have three years left when he steps into the role. At least that was an implied plan

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:23 am
by AV8RCAT
azcat49 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:38 am Wait, so we sign a top 20 class.we get the freshman offensive POY who is a QB and now we are going to get some lineman in the portal. All after going 1-11? This is just crazy
You could see it snowballing. They start thinking that's the place good players want to go and they follow. That's Fisch's huge accomplishment.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:32 am
by Merkin
As much as I like McCloud, don't see him sticking around. He goes from starter to holding the clipboard.

I imagine Fifita will be getting the mop up minutes just to give him some time to adjust to FBS speed.

Plummer is a warrior, and a solid backup, but he goes from starter to running the scout team. Mid majors maybe.

Surprised Cruz is still around. Probably get a lot of interest from FCS schools.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:48 am
by azgreg
IIRC we had 23 spots plus up to 7 portal spots avail at the start of the class. We have 22 signed and 5 transfers. That leaves 1 spot and 2 transfer spots. Did I get that right?

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:53 am
by gronk4heisman
azgreg wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:48 am IIRC we had 23 spots plus up to 7 portal spots avail at the start of the class. We have 22 signed and 5 transfers. That leaves 1 spot and 2 transfer spots. Did I get that right?
Thats what they said originally, but again on Scheer's podcast he said he expects there to be 4 or 5 more transfers come in which would be over those numbers.

https://247sports.com/college/arizona/A ... 180348543/

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:12 am
by Alieberman
For those thinking we have too many qb's on our squad and are already thinking 1 or more should transfer-

Do I really need to remind anyone that we literally ran out of Qb's last year?

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:16 am
by Harvey Specter
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:47 am
ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:41 am
azcat49 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:38 am Wait, so we sign a top 20 class.we get the freshman offensive POY who is a QB and now we are going to get some lineman in the portal. All after going 1-11? This is just crazy
There are different ways to sell. Fisch is selling a culture and rising a program back out of the ashes. An attractive culture is very important and the bringing a program back to prominence angle works in recruiting, especially for a new coaching staff.
I assume immediately available playing time from a lack of returning talent helps sell some kids too. If you can play, you'll get a chance at Arizona. That's not always the case for teams with more talent.
From comments made by a couple of recruits, I also believe that the staff is selling their NFL coaching experience HARD.

Having a solid culture where players believe the coaches actually care about them matters. Add in an opportunity to contribute early and be a part of building something, with coaches you believe can improve your chances at playing for a living on Sundays, seems to be a winning combination.

This staff has far exceeded any & all expectations I had for them, but it proves a point I have always believed: coaching staff is the #1 determinant in recruiting. Despite all the whining and excuses from prior HC's, the right coaches can recruit to nearly any Power 5 Conference program, and certainly ours.

There is a window of opportunity with any new staff where on-field performance is overlooked; this is the first staff to take advantage of it since Stoops (and in a MUCH more emphatic way). In order for it to continue longer-term, they will need to demonstrate a similar upward trajectory on the field.

Initially, I never understood why RR was such a shit recruiter, because (having seen him OWN the room in alumni settings) he had a ton of charisma. I think his ego was so ginormous that kids realized that it was going to be "all about him". Couple that with the fact that he seemed to pride himself on going after misfit toys (see "2-star Scoob") so if and when they won it would prove his superior evaluation & coaching, and a scheme that was not conducive to prepping players for the next level, and you get the marginal (at best) success he had on signing day.

On the flip side, Miller was visibly uncomfortable at those same events, but the guy seemed as genuine one-on-one as any high profile types I have encountered. I think that matters.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:17 am
by azcat49
I don’t think there is any question that one of them transfers after the spring determines their fate on the depth chart.

Cruz won’t play in the spring and he would have to RS unless he went FCS. Plummer could transfer immediately but that doesn’t seem like his make up. McCloud should settle in as the backup and would be one play from starting plus he would have to sit a year.

Tough situation with a glut of similar experienced young guys who will have to find what’s best for them

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:18 am
by gronk4heisman
Alieberman wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:12 am For those thinking we have too many qb's on our squad and are already thinking 1 or more should transfer-

Do I really need to remind anyone that we literally ran out of Qb's last year?
I don't think anybody wants them to transfer, but in reality decent QB's do not stay to be 4th or 5th string. I think one will transfer, I hope McCloud stays as he would be first in line most likely if De Laura gets injured. Cruz staying seems to make next to no sense unless he is fine never playing again unless there are multiple injuries.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:51 am
by Spaceman Spiff
Harvey Specter wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:16 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:47 am
ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:41 am
azcat49 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:38 am Wait, so we sign a top 20 class.we get the freshman offensive POY who is a QB and now we are going to get some lineman in the portal. All after going 1-11? This is just crazy
There are different ways to sell. Fisch is selling a culture and rising a program back out of the ashes. An attractive culture is very important and the bringing a program back to prominence angle works in recruiting, especially for a new coaching staff.
I assume immediately available playing time from a lack of returning talent helps sell some kids too. If you can play, you'll get a chance at Arizona. That's not always the case for teams with more talent.
From comments made by a couple of recruits, I also believe that the staff is selling their NFL coaching experience HARD.

Having a solid culture where players believe the coaches actually care about them matters. Add in an opportunity to contribute early and be a part of building something, with coaches you believe can improve your chances at playing for a living on Sundays, seems to be a winning combination.

This staff has far exceeded any & all expectations I had for them, but it proves a point I have always believed: coaching staff is the #1 determinant in recruiting. Despite all the whining and excuses from prior HC's, the right coaches can recruit to nearly any Power 5 Conference program, and certainly ours.

There is a window of opportunity with any new staff where on-field performance is overlooked; this is the first staff to take advantage of it since Stoops (and in a MUCH more emphatic way). In order for it to continue longer-term, they will need to demonstrate a similar upward trajectory on the field.

Initially, I never understood why RR was such a shit recruiter, because (having seen him OWN the room in alumni settings) he had a ton of charisma. I think his ego was so ginormous that kids realized that it was going to be "all about him". Couple that with the fact that he seemed to pride himself on going after misfit toys (see "2-star Scoob") so if and when they won it would prove his superior evaluation & coaching, and a scheme that was not conducive to prepping players for the next level, and you get the marginal (at best) success he had on signing day.

On the flip side, Miller was visibly uncomfortable at those same events, but the guy seemed as genuine one-on-one as any high profile types I have encountered. I think that matters.
You say what you want about Fisch, he's willing to do the work and seems to understand what his assets are. There are areas I'm far from sold on him and I have zero hope he'll be here longer than 4 years, but I totally think he has a full grasp on what he needs to do and busts his ass trying to do it.

Fisch is comparable to Stoops and Miller, IMO. Neither took over a roster that could win. Guys like RichRod, Lloyd and Sumlin got some talemt (very good talent in Lloyd's case). To Fisch's credit, he seems to have clearly identified the talent deficiency and prioritized remedying it.

The big positive is that even if I'm right and he's gone in 3 years, this hopefully lays the groundwork for continued recruiting. If we consistently were able to land the #30-35 class, that would be good. This class is probably too high to count on every year, but if we hit the #30-35 metric witj gopd coaching and player development, we wind up a consistent top 25 program that could make a top ten run in good years.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:34 am
by AV8RCAT
Certainly, he will get offers based on his recruiting success alone, and if he gets a chance at the brass ring, I expect he will take it, but we might be in good shape for the future by then.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:57 am
by Spaceman Spiff
AV8RCAT wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:34 am Certainly, he will get offers based on his recruiting success alone, and if he gets a chance at the brass ring, I expect he will take it, but we might be in good shape for the future by then.
I base that largely in his history of never staying longer than two years. I doubt that changes much.

There are a lot of better jobs than Arizona and someone with an itinerant past isn't gonna stay. Or...things go poorly and he's not retained after 4 years. I can't see too many scenarios where one of those two doesn't actualize.

But I'm cool with it if he recruits and retains. At least then we're not stuck with a Sumlin style dumpster fire, and I haven't been an Arizona football fan long enough to see a coach move on in circumstances other than being run out of town.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:22 pm
by Chicat
It would be a refreshing change to see a coach lean on his success at UA to move on to a better job as opposed to being run out of town followed by a mob wielding pitchforks and torches.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:29 pm
by azgreg
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:57 am I base that largely in his history of never staying longer than two years. I doubt that changes much.
I've heard this argument a lot, but Fisch has addressed it. He has stated he's moved around working towards his goal of becoming a head coach. He's reached that goal so I expect his moving around to diminish greatly.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:43 pm
by Spaceman Spiff
azgreg wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:29 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:57 am I base that largely in his history of never staying longer than two years. I doubt that changes much.
I've heard this argument a lot, but Fisch has addressed it. He has stated he's moved around working towards his goal of becoming a head coach. He's reached that goal so I expect his moving around to diminish greatly.
I mean, is he going to say he plans to pump and dump us publicly? Every coach says they love (insert school) and want to build a career there.

In this offseason, Notre Dame and Oklahoma lost coaches who'd been there for longer than Fisch has been at any stop in his life and we think we're different? Oregon is the best positioned Pac team for the NIL era and Cristobal peaced out on them.

4 years would be a slowdown for Fisch. As Chi said, moving up would be a nice change of pace from leaving on the heels of pathetic losing streaks or sex abuse allegations.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:15 pm
by AV8RCAT
Unless his wife and family fall in love with Tucson and possibly even then, he will likely leave for a bigger job if he is successful here. Last time that happened it worked out ok.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:35 pm
by Merkin
AV8RCAT wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:15 pm Unless his wife and family fall in love with Tucson and possibly even then, he will likely leave for a bigger job if he is successful here. Last time that happened it worked out ok.
Larry Smith transition to Dick Tomey?

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:39 pm
by azcat49
ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:24 am
Siempre Verde wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:20 am I’m seeing a lot of appealing talent coming in, but who is blocking for them?
Patience my friend.
So an Alabama Offensive lineman just entered the portal and he has west coast ties to Mater Dei. He was in their rotation as well

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:41 pm
by AV8RCAT
Merkin wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:35 pm
AV8RCAT wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:15 pm Unless his wife and family fall in love with Tucson and possibly even then, he will likely leave for a bigger job if he is successful here. Last time that happened it worked out ok.
Larry Smith transition to Dick Tomey?
Yes. Tomey went .500 with 3 ties his first year, but kept us from regressing after Larry.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:42 pm
by AV8RCAT
azcat49 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:39 pm
ChooChooCat wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:24 am
Siempre Verde wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:20 am I’m seeing a lot of appealing talent coming in, but who is blocking for them?
Patience my friend.
So an Alabama Offensive lineman just entered the portal and he has west coast ties to Mater Dei. He was in their rotation as well
Make it happen Mr Fisch.
Anyone know when de Laura will arrive?

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:59 pm
by Alieberman
Are we really worrying about an AZ football coach being too successful that he is being recruited elsewhere?

Really?

Do we know what year it was the last time a head coach from AZ left because he wasn't fired?

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:07 pm
by Chicat
Alieberman wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:59 pm Do we know what year it was the last time a head coach from AZ left because he wasn't fired?
Before I went to UA, and I’m an old fuck at this point.

Re: 2022 Recruit/Commitment Thread

Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:27 pm
by Harvey Specter
azgreg wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:29 pm
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:57 am I base that largely in his history of never staying longer than two years. I doubt that changes much.
I've heard this argument a lot, but Fisch has addressed it. He has stated he's moved around working towards his goal of becoming a head coach. He's reached that goal so I expect his moving around to diminish greatly.
I do not think there is any way to tell if this is simply standard coachspeak or an honest representation. Many fans hung their hat on on Rich Rod’s proclamation that he wanted to retire in Tucson at his presser one hour after landing in Tucson for the first time, and I though that was obvious pandering bullshit (which it absolutely was).

I’m not sure if I buy Fisch’s explanation for his history, because it is not as if he kept progressing up the coaching ladder… but I don’t hold it against him. The skeptic in me says no one prioritized keeping him around; the optimist says he kept getting pretty good jobs under some very good head coaches.

If he does stick around long enough to start feeling like he is establishing roots (a minimum 3 years seems almost guaranteed), he (and more importantly his wife and kids) might like it. The ages of his dughters could prove an important factor as well.

Only time will tell. At this point I just want him to have success, and if he does… we’ll be in a better spot that we have since the 20th century - whether he bolts or sticks around.