Bear Down Wildcats

TheCat wrote:People that say Scott Drew have no idea about him as a coach or his tourney record. He has a great team this year. The best we could do is Rick Pitino if you did not care about optics. The best coach after that is Kelvin Sampson again a tainted guy but can coach. Choo wants 1 top guy and 4 four stars......not bad if you have a team of juniors but you wont have any top 10 classes which sent us to the elite eight a couple of times.

Pretty damn slim pickins if you ask me. Donavon if he loses his job would be great but highly unlikely he will lose his job.

Upperclassmen win championships outside of a couple of Duke/Kentucky outliers. Those two Elite 8 teams were full of very good upperclassmen.

eoe wrote:Bruce Pearl

The biggest f u to the NCAA

He can’t stop blatantly cheating and the NCAA would rightly slap our program down forever


Leonard Hamilton? This dude was on the verge of being fired multiple times and took a lot of heat for consistently underperforming...just like Scott Drew. It’s always what have you done for me lately, which is awful.

I’m laughing at you all shooting down the possibility of Bruce Pearl as our next coach. The guy is proven as a builder of winning programs with a very entertaining product to watch on the court. He would bring instant energy into the program. And sure, the best coaches play “the game” and stretch the rules, but Pearl has a super likeable personality that frankly allows him to get away with more. In fact, his personality is the opposite of coach Millers’, whos “us against the world” mentality was fun when we were winning, but his continual shtick with the refs/PAC12/ESPN hasn’t aged well.

Here’s a great read on Bruce Pearl by the way...

https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/st ... 938704002/" target="_blank

KingG wrote:Here’s a great read on Bruce Pearl by the way...

https://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/st ... 938704002/" target="_blank

I know it would never happen because of the compliance issues/optics, but I'm confused at the generally negative notes about Bruce Pearl in this thread...he's a phenomenal coach imo.

My eyes are still burning...

not a Bruce Pearl fan.

If we are getting rid of Miller, some of the smoke for his job is caused by allegations of cheating. Bruce Pearl would not be the answer in this sense. I agree he is a good coach, but not the answer at Arizona.

If you're Arizona you can't hire a coach involved with the FBI scandal. It's a non-starter guys.

Sean Miller is Bruce Pearl who is Sean Miller

eoe wrote:Sean Miller is Bruce Pearl who is Sean Miller

again, I know Bruce is off the table and would not be a potential hire here. But Bruce of the last few years I would take over Miller. He's a very good coach.

I guess Iona could afford Pitino.

Postmaster wrote:I guess Iona could afford Pitino.

They can have him. Dude is dirtier than Bill Self.

Vitale’s wife better take advantage of his hard on because they don’t happen much anymore

Beachcat97 wrote:

Postmaster wrote:I guess Iona could afford Pitino.

They can have him. Dude is dirtier than Bill Self.

How dirty can you be if you wear a white suit?

For the Scott Drew fans here, GCU just hired his brother to be their coach.

ChooChooCat wrote:For the Scott Drew fans here, GCU just hired his brother to be their coach.

are there Scott Drew fans?

I guess this year gets him to that level. But he has consistently had bonehead teams that invent ways to lose games they should win. People talk about Xs and Os being Miller's weakness, and that has always been the knock on Scott Drew. His defense is generally good. But the knocks on him are very similar to the knocks some have on Miller...questionable recruiting practices, poor tournament performance the last few years, no offense suffers for defense.

Drew has no signature wins in the tournament, with his best being a #3 seeded Creighton. His teams have advanced to the Elite Eight twice without beating any team better than a 10 seed. Contrast to Arizona's 3 Elite Eights, which included wins over a 1, two 4's, a 6 and an 8.

2019 - Baylor gets a 9 seed, wins 8/9 game, loses 2nd round (Arizona misses tournament)
2018 - Baylor misses the tournament (Arizona loses 1st round game as a 4 seed)
2017 - Baylor gets a 3 seed, beats 14, gets a break in facing an upset 11 seed in the 2nd round, loses in S16 (#2 Arizona beats 15 and 7 seeds, loses in S16)
2016 - Baylor gets a 5 seed, loses in 1st round to 12 seed Yale. (#6 Arizona loses in 1st round)
2015 - Baylor gets a 3 seed, loses in 1st round to 14 seed Georgia State. (#2 Arizona wins 3 games, advances to Elite 8)
2014 - Baylor gets a 6 seed, beats 11 seed Nebraska and 3 seed Creighton, loses in S16 to Wisconsin (#1 Arizona wins 3 games, advances to E8, loses to Wisconsin)
2013 - Baylor misses tournament (Arizona beats Belmont and Harvard, advances to S16 and loses to #2 Ohio State when Grant Jerrett goes under a screen, gives up the game winning 3 with a second left)

Drew has won 3 games in the tournament in the last 5 years. Miller has won 5 in that stretch.

Not listed above...Baylor had back to back Elite Eight runs in 2010 and 2012 sandwiching a year they missed the tournament. Arizona went to the Elite Eight in 2011 and missed in 2012 (and 2010, but that was the first year of the program).

Baylor's path to their only two Elite Eight appearances came on the backs of playing Cinderella teams in every 2nd and 3rd round they played...4 of 4 in drawing the lesser seeded 11 and 10 seeds instead of the 6 and 2 seed. That's worth paying attention to. Drew has NO signature wins in the NCAA (beating 3 seed Creighton as a 6 seed doesn't qualify). The tournament is luck in lots of cases. Arizona played the toughest route possible in 2011 and 2014, and got a mild 10 over a 7 upset in 2015 before the only true "luck" in an E8 run...playing #6 instead of #3. When faced with a properly seeded opponent in the E8, Drew teams lost by an average of 10 points per game (Arizona's average loss in E8 is by 3 points per game, with FTs late vs UW skewing the total that includes a 1 and 2 point loss).

Drew missed qualifying for the tournament his first 5 years (total rebuild), while Miller missed one (in what was a pretty massive rebuild). Overall, Baylor has missed the tournament 9 times in Drews 17 years (they were in this year). Miller has missed 3 times in 11 years (we were in this year)

Drew is 11-8, Miller 13-7 in NCAA play. For Drew, the 11 wins were largely games he should have won...Drew has beaten a 3 seed once (Creighton), otherwise his average win was as a 4.8 seed against an 11.4 seed, with 9 wins against a double digit seed, and a 10th against an 8 seed. His losses include a 7, 12, and 14 seed (Arizona has losses to a 6 seed and two 11 seeds). Miller is 13-7 in the tournament, with his average win as a 3.2 seed against a 9.4. His teams have beaten single digit seeds 6 times, including wins over a 1 seed, two 4 seeds, a 6 seed, a 7 seed and a 8 seed.

Drew's biggest weakness is his team's NCAA tournament play. That is the knock on Miller, though overall, he bests Drew with average strength of beaten opponents, overall wins, signature wins, frequency of qualifying for the tournament, and length of run in the tournament. Drew is largely propped up to even be close to competing by the incredible luck of his two E8 teams never beating a single digit seed.

I don't get love for Scott Drew. I have always seen his teams as undisciplined, underperforming and generally an easy out in the tournament if their opponent is any good. His overall conference record is under .500, though the first couple of years were really out of his control. But since his first Elite Eight, Baylor has posted conference records of 7-9, 8-10, 9-9 twice, 10-8 twice. Even if you take his first 3 years away as a runway, his Big 12 conference win percentage is .547. And other than heavy recency bias for this year, his teams have been pretty average the prior 7 seasons, with 2 tournament misses, 2 first round losses, and a 2nd round loss in the mix.

(Coronavirus social distancing allows for long, deep dives into weird hypothetical coaching changes. I wouldn't do this for every coach, but I really have no love for Scott Drew)

EVCat wrote:

ChooChooCat wrote:For the Scott Drew fans here, GCU just hired his brother to be their coach.

are there Scott Drew fans?

I guess this year gets him to that level. But he has consistently had bonehead teams that invent ways to lose games they should win. People talk about Xs and Os being Miller's weakness, and that has always been the knock on Scott Drew. His defense is generally good. But the knocks on him are very similar to the knocks some have on Miller...questionable recruiting practices, poor tournament performance the last few years, no offense suffers for defense.

Drew has no signature wins in the tournament, with his best being a #3 seeded Creighton. His teams have advanced to the Elite Eight twice without beating any team better than a 10 seed. Contrast to Arizona's 3 Elite Eights, which included wins over a 1, two 4's, a 6 and an 8.

2019 - Baylor gets a 9 seed, wins 8/9 game, loses 2nd round (Arizona misses tournament)
2018 - Baylor misses the tournament (Arizona loses 1st round game as a 4 seed)
2017 - Baylor gets a 3 seed, beats 14, gets a break in facing an upset 11 seed in the 2nd round, loses in S16 (#2 Arizona beats 15 and 7 seeds, loses in S16)
2016 - Baylor gets a 5 seed, loses in 1st round to 12 seed Yale. (#6 Arizona loses in 1st round)
2015 - Baylor gets a 3 seed, loses in 1st round to 14 seed Georgia State. (#2 Arizona wins 3 games, advances to Elite 8)
2014 - Baylor gets a 6 seed, beats 11 seed Nebraska and 3 seed Creighton, loses in S16 to Wisconsin (#1 Arizona wins 3 games, advances to E8, loses to Wisconsin)
2013 - Baylor misses tournament (Arizona beats Belmont and Harvard, advances to S16 and loses to #2 Ohio State when Grant Jerrett goes under a screen, gives up the game winning 3 with a second left)

Drew has won 3 games in the tournament in the last 5 years. Miller has won 5 in that stretch.

Not listed above...Baylor had back to back Elite Eight runs in 2010 and 2012 sandwiching a year they missed the tournament. Arizona went to the Elite Eight in 2011 and missed in 2012 (and 2010, but that was the first year of the program).

Baylor's path to their only two Elite Eight appearances came on the backs of playing Cinderella teams in every 2nd and 3rd round they played...4 of 4 in drawing the lesser seeded 11 and 10 seeds instead of the 6 and 2 seed. That's worth paying attention to. Drew has NO signature wins in the NCAA (beating 3 seed Creighton as a 6 seed doesn't qualify). The tournament is luck in lots of cases. Arizona played the toughest route possible in 2011 and 2014, and got a mild 10 over a 7 upset in 2015 before the only true "luck" in an E8 run...playing #6 instead of #3. When faced with a properly seeded opponent in the E8, Drew teams lost by an average of 10 points per game (Arizona's average loss in E8 is by 3 points per game, with FTs late vs UW skewing the total that includes a 1 and 2 point loss).

Drew missed qualifying for the tournament his first 5 years (total rebuild), while Miller missed one (in what was a pretty massive rebuild). Overall, Baylor has missed the tournament 9 times in Drews 17 years (they were in this year). Miller has missed 3 times in 11 years (we were in this year)

Drew is 11-8, Miller 13-7 in NCAA play. For Drew, the 11 wins were largely games he should have won...Drew has beaten a 3 seed once (Creighton), otherwise his average win was as a 4.8 seed against an 11.4 seed, with 9 wins against a double digit seed, and a 10th against an 8 seed. His losses include a 7, 12, and 14 seed (Arizona has losses to a 6 seed and two 11 seeds). Miller is 13-7 in the tournament, with his average win as a 3.2 seed against a 9.4. His teams have beaten single digit seeds 6 times, including wins over a 1 seed, two 4 seeds, a 6 seed, a 7 seed and a 8 seed.

Drew's biggest weakness is his team's NCAA tournament play. That is the knock on Miller, though overall, he bests Drew with average strength of beaten opponents, overall wins, signature wins, frequency of qualifying for the tournament, and length of run in the tournament. Drew is largely propped up to even be close to competing by the incredible luck of his two E8 teams never beating a single digit seed.

I don't get love for Scott Drew. I have always seen his teams as undisciplined, underperforming and generally an easy out in the tournament if their opponent is any good. His overall conference record is under .500, though the first couple of years were really out of his control. But since his first Elite Eight, Baylor has posted conference records of 7-9, 8-10, 9-9 twice, 10-8 twice. Even if you take his first 3 years away as a runway, his Big 12 conference win percentage is .547. And other than heavy recency bias for this year, his teams have been pretty average the prior 7 seasons, with 2 tournament misses, 2 first round losses, and a 2nd round loss in the mix.

(Coronavirus social distancing allows for long, deep dives into weird hypothetical coaching changes. I wouldn't do this for every coach, but I really have no love for Scott Drew)

this is a great post, appreciate the time it took to do this. A couple comments as a fan of Scott Drew:
1. The annual summary you put together leaves out this year, where they would have been a 1-seed. Obviously will never know what would have happened in the tourney, but this year he had a very good team capable of winning the title (although your critique of his tournament record is fair).
2. Even without including this year, that annual summary to me shows a pretty damn good coach. He's at Baylor, a mediocre program that he turned very quickly around in a dire situation. He turned them into a top 20ish team consistently throughout the mid 2010s. His teams languished the two years prior to this year, and he now has one of the best teams in the country. Again, at Baylor, without great resources or a strong fanbase/home court advantage. That level of consistent overperformance compared to resources is impressive.
3. Comparing records between Miller and Drew when Miller is at a top 10 program in the country and Drew is at a mediocre Power 5 program is not apples to apples.
4. Maybe most importantly, I don't believe Drew is an out-and-out better coach than Miller. I simply believe that Miller has been at AZ for too long, his teams have become stale, and if we can swap him with a coach of a comparable level, which I believe Drew is, then I think that is a worthwhile move to make.

I don't think any of the big big names will be available to us (i.e., Billy Donovan, Chris Beard, Jay Wright, other blue blood coaches). If that is the case, I think there's a solid argument to make that Drew is in the top tier of realistic Miller replacements (imo, along with Christ Holtmann, Chris Jans, Buzz Williams, and Matt Painter).

to #3, I would say Drew has been at Baylor for 17 years. The program is what the program is, and it is Drew's creation. Lute hasn't been here for 13 years. He built the program, but where it is now is Miller's program. If it is perceived as a better program, it is because he has maintained that level. I feel it is apples to apples, because Drew's teams have been within a single seed of Miller's teams in the NCAA, and have less results. I think the fact that Drew only got to Elite Eights (and, largely, S16s) on the back of high seeds and upsets in his path is worth mentioning...he has only succeeded in the tournament, relative to his seeding, when the table has been set for him. So, erasing the perceived power of the programs, as a 4/5 seed on average, he has one decent win (Creighton in a 3/6), and his path to the 2nd weekend has been against Cinderella...not just once or twice, but every single game in his E8 runs. I think, given the seeding is done without care for the program's perceived power, that is an apples to apples comparison.

To #2, I concede he turned Baylor around. It took 5 years, but he got them out of the gutter. He got to two Elite Eights in 3 years (again, on the backs of Cinderella...he was never challenged in those runs, but let's just take them for the achievement) in 10 and 12. So there is your program rebuild. Now, he has 2 years out of 3 in the final 8 programs in the country. This is now a program. This is a recruiting door opener. What did he do? The program has pretty steadily fallen since that point. Without an FBI/ESPN scandal to poison the well. There is this year...we never got to see whether they would finally get that signature win in the tournament.

I don't think Miller needs to leave. Much of the grumbling about him happens outside the Tucson faithful...McKale still has his back, by and large. I don't think a team knows what year they are in the program and becomes stale. I do believe Miller has had a lack of solid help on his bench for a couple of years now, first due to the Phelps removal and, more environmentally, the FBI/ESPN stuff lingering and impacting the pool of assistants. He needs to have a lead assistant that is a 2nd head coach, a trusted Lieutenant that elevates the program.

Drew, to me, would be checking the box of every complaint people have with Miller, but with less upside.

This is all opinion and hypothetical, but I think his failure to launch after a couple of fortunate E8 runs supports me. We don't know what would have happened this year. But I have to say that Baylor team was one of the least dominating #1 teams I have seen for a long time. They were going into the tournament having lost 3 of their last 5 games. They were better than us for sure. But I would have been fine with them being the 1 in our bracket, though a 1 may not have been earned without a dominant performance in the Big 12 tournament.

his brother first, Whitford and then subsequently Pasternack attributed to a lot of good at AZ - Richardson was the hype man in the middle and when times were good he fit right, but when things tightened he got too loose with his behavior.

at this point i don’t think Sean Miller will be fired or will resign this spring so the discussion most likely will be for another year in terms of his situation.

agree with your statement...

I can see there being no pro or college sports at all next season, and Miller getting a blank slate start again the year after.

i certainly hope that isn’t the case, LH about no sports

Me too. All marble racing might not be enough for us. But go Pollo Loco!

The warmer the weather gets the quicker the virus will go away, so global warming do your job!

ChooChooCat wrote:The warmer the weather gets the quicker the virus will go away, so global warming do your job!

So we should basically host all games for a summer tourney at McKale, and require all teams and fans to sit outside drinking margaritas the rest of the time.

It's not that hard to keep politics talk on the politics board.

It's really not...

97cats wrote:i certainly hope that isn’t the case, LH about no sports

I think people are going to be shocked at how long we are going to be without team sports.

Alieberman wrote:

97cats wrote:i certainly hope that isn’t the case, LH about no sports

I think people are going to be shocked at how long we are going to be without team sports.

Bingo. That's why this virus can't be pigeonholed as a political issue.

Because it isn't. It's quite universal.

But my earlier responses in.this thread have been merged into the Natural Disaster thread, so I will take that cue and bow out of this thread gracefully.

With one more vote for Randy Bennett as Miller's eventual successor if/when we ever have a college basketball season again. I'm with Choo...the dude is the best West Coast recruiter we can hope for.

The South Korean basketball league is returning after one month of hiatus. I'm not saying team sports are right around the corner, but theres no reason these guys shouldn't be playing again by May.

ChooChooCat wrote:The South Korean basketball league is returning after one month of hiatus. I'm not saying team sports are right around the corner, but theres no reason these guys shouldn't be playing again by May.

Adam Silver said mid-June hopefully, right? If that happens, I'll cry with deep appreciation. Expectations of life officially lowered.

Longhorned wrote:

ChooChooCat wrote:The South Korean basketball league is returning after one month of hiatus. I'm not saying team sports are right around the corner, but theres no reason these guys shouldn't be playing again by May.

Adam Silver said mid-June hopefully, right? If that happens, I'll cry with deep appreciation. Expectations of life officially lowered.

I mean the safe the better, but also the sooner the better. I'd be ok with June.