Official Bracketology Thread

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Wed Feb 17, 2016 9:25 am

If you look at the bubble watch it's full of shitty errors.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:09 pm

Always handy this time of year:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:25 pm

I feel like it's a foregone conclusion that we will face Valpo in the first round.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:31 pm

Chicat wrote:I feel like it's a foregone conclusion that we will face Valpo in the first round.

And then a match up with Dayton, then Xavier and probably Kansas because, you know that's just how the committee rolls. Unless you are Duke

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Feb 17, 2016 4:12 pm

azcat49 wrote:
Chicat wrote:I feel like it's a foregone conclusion that we will face Valpo in the first round.

And then a match up with Dayton, then Xavier and probably Kansas because, you know that's just how the committee rolls. Unless you are Duke

Kansas isn't getting eliminated before the Sweet 16? Does Mario Chalmers still have eligibility?

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Thu Feb 18, 2016 10:00 am

5 seed in the West on ESPN. Should be in the top 10 come Monday. We are in prime position to finish the season in the top 8.

This was a down year right?

dirtbags · Post by **dirtbags** » Thu Feb 18, 2016 10:13 am

though poorly framed (and perhaps with questionable motives), brennan's push for espn's bpi or even kenpom rankings over / in addition to rpi is apt. i know the selection process is far more comprehensive, but bpi rewards us with a higher seed than rpi would.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:45 am

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology" target="_blank

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:26 pm

Irish27 wrote:http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Weird

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:39 pm

Feel like the lack of a good quality win is what will keep us from a top seed. What is the best win of the year? At Washington? USC?

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:42 pm

If we lose another reg season game and do not win the Pac tourney, a 5 or 6 seed feels about right. We have a terrible SOS and no major wins. If we somehow go undefeated between now and Selection Sunday, we're probably looking at a 3 seed.

g32knights · Post by **g32knights** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:50 pm

If they go undefeated between now and selection Sunday that would be 13 wins in a row, and (probably) a top 10, possibly top 5 ranking, with how so many teams are dropping games this year. How would that team get a 3 seed, probably a 2, hell, maybe even a very outside shot at a 1 seed.

CatMG · Post by **CatMG** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:52 pm

PHXCATS wrote:Feel like the lack of a good quality win is what will keep us from a top seed. What is the best win of the year? At Washington? USC?

True but the "eye test" should also be in play. Look at Arizona's losses, every one came down to the final possession except the Oregon game. Yet a team like Dayton (seeded higher in the latest CBS bracket) has losses to Chattanooga , LaSalle and now St Bonaventure (which I assume would drop them in the next bracket). While I don't think the Cats get a real high seed, I would be very surprised if they get a 6 seed (or worse) unless they have a bad stretch in the next four games AND go out early in the Pac-12 tourney. I am thinking they end up as a 4 seed.

prh · Post by **prh** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:20 pm

PHXCATS wrote:Feel like the lack of a good quality win is what will keep us from a top seed. What is the best win of the year? At Washington? USC?

@ Gonzaga maybe?

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 3:27 pm

prh wrote:
PHXCATS wrote:Feel like the lack of a good quality win is what will keep us from a top seed. What is the best win of the year? At Washington? USC?
@ Gonzaga maybe?

Lost to UCLA and BYU and Saint Mary's at home after we won there, not a quality win.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:25 pm

@ Utah hopefully

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:31 pm

Chicat wrote:
Irish27 wrote:http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
Weird

stupid

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 5:15 pm

We're not getting higher than a 3 seed, guys, and that assumes no more losses. It is what it is. The committee greatly values SOS.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 5:21 pm

Time to pull the ACC card and remind the committee that our league is full of top 100 ( I think 10 of 12) and a bunch of top 50 teams we must play against.

Who knows, we might gave played more games as a % of our schedule against top 100 teams then say a Xavier or even Nova

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 5:45 pm

Well honestly seeding isn't going to be a factor like it has been in recent years. We could have a damn 6 seed win it all and that wouldn't be far fetched.

Im also liking the current +2800 Odds for us to win. I think it's time for daddy to spend a little cash.

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 5:55 pm

"Im also liking the current +2800 Odds for us to win..."

Wow..that's a strange number. Nobody's giving Arizona better odds?

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 5:58 pm

We are currently 28/1 on Bovada and I saw 30/1 on Vegas Insider

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 6:00 pm

luteformayor2 wrote:Well honestly seeding isn't going to be a factor like it has been in recent years. We could have a damn 6 seed win it all and that wouldn't be far fetched.

Yep. Very little separation this year between the top ranked teams and everyone else. Would it really be so surprising to see all four #1 seeds fall before the FF? No. The teams seeded in the 4 to 7 range are as dangerous as anyone this year.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:46 pm

luteformayor2 wrote:Well honestly seeding isn't going to be a factor like it has been in recent years. We could have a damn 6 seed win it all and that wouldn't be far fetched.

Im also liking the current +2800 Odds for us to win. I think it's time for daddy to spend a little cash.

Damn, I was in tahoe and I forgot to check the sports book.

baconus66 · Post by **baconus66** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:23 am

Maybe it's just me but I wouldn't mind a 4-5 in the West.

Main Event · Post by **Main Event** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:31 am

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology" target="_blank

baconus66 · Post by **baconus66** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:44 am

A 4 in the Midwest going against Archie or SDSU in the second round and Kansas in the S16? Fuck no. Give us a 5, 6 or 7 in the West over that any day

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:24 am

Main Event wrote:http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

The reg season Pac champ will be a 3 seed in the tourney. No chance at a 2. Look at the 2 seed line. None of those teams is slipping.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:43 am

We obviously want to get that 3-seed in the west, currently occupied by Oregon. But because of the fact that we haven't beaten anybody this year, we have to take our only real opportunity and beat Utah this week. If we can't do that, then we'll get an opportunity to beat a 1-seed pretty much on their own home court in the Sweet Sixteen.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:47 am

Longhorned wrote:We obviously want to get that 3-seed in the west, currently occupied by Oregon. But because of the fact that we haven't beaten anybody this year, we have to take our only real opportunity and beat Utah this week. If we can't do that, then we'll get an opportunity to beat a 1-seed pretty much on their own home court in the Sweet Sixteen.

I get the talk about seeds, location and potential matchups. However, this is a year that a 16 could beat a 1, as I don't see any team that is head and shoulders above the others. With that said, keep us away from MSU and I am happy.

I mean, take your pick of teams from last year: Wisky, AZ, UK, KU, Duke...etc...any of those teams would win the natty this year.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:10 am

Beachcat97 wrote:
Main Event wrote:http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
The reg season Pac champ will be a 3 seed in the tourney. No chance at a 2. Look at the 2 seed line. None of those teams is slipping.

i 100% disagree -- if AZ sweeps the Mountain Pass this weekend they are immediately a firm 3 seed.

if Arizona somehow wins out, that would be three more regular season TOP 50 RPI wins (two on the road) and most likely another two Top 50 RPI wins in the Pac12 Conf Tournament on a neutral floor, meaning Arizona finished the year 29-5 (13-1 OOC) with at least a share and probably the outright Pac12 Regular Season title while winning the Pac12 Conf Tournament Championship and ending the season on a 13 game winning streak and likely holding a Top 5 ranking in both major polls.

if for some reason that happened, and its a GIGANTIC if and probably unlikely, Arizona is without a doubt a protected 2 seed maybe even pushing a 1 depending on how the other teams finish the season.

so while unlikely, i wouldnt say Pac12 Conf Champion has "no chance at a 2" seed

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:14 am

Truthfully there was no need to respond to that comment about "No chance".

I appreciate the effort, but consider the source of the comment. The rest of us get that there is pretty much a chance at everything.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:21 am

97cats wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote:
Main Event wrote:http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
The reg season Pac champ will be a 3 seed in the tourney. No chance at a 2. Look at the 2 seed line. None of those teams is slipping.
i 100% disagree -- if AZ sweeps the Mountain Pass this weekend they are immediately a firm 3 seed.

if Arizona somehow wins out, that would be three more regular season TOP 50 RPI wins (two on the road) and most likely another two Top 50 RPI wins in the Pac12 Conf Tournament on a neutral floor, meaning Arizona finished the year 29-5 (13-1 OOC) with at least a share and probably the outright Pac12 Regular Season title while winning the Pac12 Conf Tournament Championship and ending the season on a 13 game winning streak and likely holding a Top 5 ranking in both major polls.

if for some reason that happened, and its a GIGANTIC if and probably unlikely, Arizona is without a doubt a protected 2 seed maybe even pushing a 1 depending on how the other teams finish the season.

so while unlikely, i wouldnt say Pac12 Conf Champion has "no chance at a 2" seed

If that all happens I see the 2 in the west. However looking at the schedules after the tweet from JB Long I see UofA as the three seed in the conference tournament and a four seed in the NCAA

Main Event · Post by **Main Event** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:24 am

There are multiple top 10 teams losing every week. If we were to win out and beat an Oregon/Utah in the Pac 12 final I could see us sneaking into that last 2 spot

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 10:27 am

No chance for a 2. I say this based on what I expect to happen.

Let's revisit this on Selection Sunday.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:48 am

Beachcat97 wrote:We're not getting higher than a 3 seed, guys, and that assumes no more losses. It is what it is. The committee greatly values SOS.

Ask Wichita State

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 1:58 pm

2014? They went undefeated and had more wins vs power conferences that UA does this year. Don't think that is a good example.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:00 pm

Their toughest games that year were: Tennessee, Saint Louis, and BYU, and only one of them was a road game.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:08 pm

Another thing: not a lot of difference between being a 2 or 3 seed. Either way, you avoid the #1 until the regional final.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:36 pm

rgdeuce wrote:Their toughest games that year were: Tennessee, Saint Louis, and BYU, and only one of them was a road game.

Again undefeated and their OOC Sos that year was better than U of A's this year. By about three miles. Next.....

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:43 pm

A laughable debate. Arizona should have known when they made the schedule that the Zags would end up down this season, that Providence would fade, and that Missouri and UNLV would go through turmoil.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:54 pm

PHXCATS wrote:
rgdeuce wrote:Their toughest games that year were: Tennessee, Saint Louis, and BYU, and only one of them was a road game.
Again undefeated and their OOC Sos that year was better than U of A's this year. By about three miles. Next.....

Yep. I think some posters are underestimating how bad our SOS is this year.

Jefe · Post by **Jefe** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:03 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:If we somehow go undefeated between now and Selection Sunday, we're probably looking at a 3 seed.

Beachcat97 wrote:We're not getting higher than a 3 seed, guys

Beachcat97 wrote:The reg season Pac champ will be a 3 seed in the tourney. No chance at a 2

Beachcat97 wrote:No chance for a 2. I say this based on what I expect to happen.

So somewhere between 2 and 4 with a slight chance of 1, 5 or 6

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:03 pm

Olsondogg wrote:A laughable debate. Arizona should have known when they made the schedule that the Zags would end up down this season, that Providence would fade, and that Missouri and UNLV would go through turmoil.

Some was beyond control and foresight but the ooc sos this year any way you slice it is embarrassing and will cost seeding

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Feb 22, 2016 4:11 pm

PHXCATS wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:A laughable debate. Arizona should have known when they made the schedule that the Zags would end up down this season, that Providence would fade, and that Missouri and UNLV would go through turmoil.
Some was beyond control and foresight but the ooc sos this year any way you slice it is embarrassing and will cost seeding

Cost seeding. Interesting, considering there is no way to know...especially if Arizona wins out and gets a 1 seed.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 9:19 am

PHXCATS wrote:
rgdeuce wrote:Their toughest games that year were: Tennessee, Saint Louis, and BYU, and only one of them was a road game.
Again undefeated and their OOC Sos that year was better than U of A's this year. By about three miles. Next.....

You gonna hang your hat on those three schools? Congrats, they beat 3 tournament teams ALL YEAR. A 5 side, a 10 seed, and an 11 seed. Actually, that may be all they played the whole year in terms of tournament teams. You conveniently framed your argument around an out of conference schedule that really is a joke to begin with. Our fault Gonzaga weren't the top 10 team we thought they were (they are still likely getting into the tournament), and UNLV was gonna have a mess of a season, and Missouri wasn't a tournament team, nor Boise State, or we would lose Zeus for what would have been a top 25 win on a neutral site with a chance to play Michigan State to get yet another big game for the schedule. Basketball in January and February means a hell of a lot more than basketball in November and December in terms of seeding. When all is said and done, Arizona will have played at least 10 games against NCAA tournament teams to Wichita State's 3.

So yea, they were undefeated, but if we are looking at strength of schedule, ours right now is slightly worse than theirs which ranked 111th. Which we will easily leapfrog with our schedule the next two weeks, plus whatever we get in the conference tournament. One teams was completely disregarded and ours isnt in these forecastings. Undefeated is only so impressive when you beat three tournament teams and hit cruise control and breeze through cupcakes the rest of the year. Again, I'm not arguing we should be a 1 or 2 seed or anything of that nature, but you took it there.

Beachcat97 wrote:
Yep. I think some posters are underestimating how bad our SOS is this year.

We aren't underestimating anything. We played in top to bottom, arguably the deepest conference in the country. We have plenty of games/wins/road wins against bubble teams (Washington, UCLA, maybe Oregon State) who will not get the benefit of the doubt for our deep conference and be left out. We still played several tough to toughish nonconference games that would be a challenge a lot of teams in the top 25 right now. RPI 51-100, we have seven wins by double digits and several more that were close to that. We just see that where we are getting hammered the most is, we have only 1 game against RPI 100-150 (double digit win UNLV, which cant be too bad, they killed Oregon in Eugen) and a bunch of teams in that 150+, who were all getting beat by 20, 30, and 40 plus points outside of the disaster Santa Clara game. That is why our BPI is much higher than our RPI, you can still make a game against a bad team a good game by how u beat them and how you look doing it. If Duke beats American Samoa Law school 93-32, do you say, wow, Duke's a damn good team? Or do you say, ha, American Samoa sucks, Duke isn't that good?. You can swap all those teams with RPI 100-150 and we are winning most by double digits anyhow. We murdered the bad teams like we should have and there are plenty of teams who didnt murder their bad teams.

UAtrue · Post by **UAtrue** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 10:07 am

Both Lunardi and USA Today now have us as a 4 seed in the midwest and Oregon a 3 seed in the west.

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology?i ... &year=2016" target="_blank

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /80699606/" target="_blank

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 11:49 am

Why does Jerry Palm do his brackets in a 1978 basement bar?

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:07 pm

UAtrue wrote:Both Lunardi and USA Today now have us as a 4 seed in the midwest and Oregon a 3 seed in the west.

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology?i ... &year=2016" target="_blank

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /80699606/" target="_blank

Is the committee really gonna do a Sean/Archie matchup? Is that a given?

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Tue Feb 23, 2016 12:08 pm

UAtrue wrote:Both Lunardi and USA Today now have us as a 4 seed in the midwest and Oregon a 3 seed in the west.

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology?i ... &year=2016" target="_blank

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /80699606/" target="_blank

these to me seem right from AZ's perspective in terms of seed if the season ended today.

i mentioned a few posts above that a Mountain Pass sweep this week(end) puts AZ as a solid 3 seed -- i still strongly believe that.

as for the brotherly love thing and the SDSU obsession -- DRAMA!!!

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