Next 10 Years

[Longhorned]

I asked in what order from top to bottom teams would finish for regular season victories over then next 10 years. I ran it through a randomizer at random.org and got the following result:

New York Knicks
Chicago Bulls
San Antonio Spurs
Boston Celtics
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
Sacramento Kings
Memphis Grizzlies
Golden State Warriors
Miami Heat
Los Angeles Clippers
Philadelphia 76ers
Orlando Magic
Phoenix Suns
Dallas Mavericks
Milwaukee Bucks
Los Angeles Lakers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Indiana Pacers
Portland Trailblazers
Washington Wizards
Houston Rockets

Is this interesting?

[JMarkJohns]

While a decade is a long time, I think that's pretty bad.

My bet:

Top-10 (no real order)
Cleveland ^
Chicago
Washington ^
LA Clippers ^
Houston
Boston ^
Indiana
Golden State ^
Oklahoma City
Miami

Middle 10
Portland
LA Lakers
Phoenix
Dallas
San Antonio
Toronto
Philadelphia ^
Orlando ^
Memphis
New Orleans ^

Bottom Tier
Detroit
Denver
Milwaukee ^
Minnesota ^
Sacramento
Utah
Charlotte
Atlanta
Brooklyn (likely the worst)
New York


I factored in 6 things:

1. Owner
2. GM
3. Coach
4. Prime Star Talent
5. Young talent/1sts
6. Location

[Longhorned]

So you don't just have some kind of faith that Phil will turn things around for the Knicks?

[JMarkJohns]

Based on my previous criteria, I will rank each of the 30 NBA team on a sliding 1-5 scale in the categories of:

Owner
GM/President
Coach
Current Prime Talent
Young Talent/Draft Picks (1sts)
Location

Eastern - Atlantic
Boston: 4-4-4-2-5-4=23/30
Brooklyn: 4-1-3-2-1-4=15/30
New York: 1-4-3-3-2-5=18/30
Philadelphia: 3-4-3-3-5-3=21/30
Toronto: 4-4-3-4-4-3=22/30

Eastern - Central
Chicago: 4-4-5-5-2-4=24/30
Cleveland: 3-4-4-5-5-3=25/30
Detroit: 3-3-4-3-4-1=18/30
Indiana: 4-5-4-4-2-3=22/30
Milwaukee: 4-4-3-2-4-2=19/30

Eastern - Southern
Atlanta: 3-4-4-3-3-2=19/30
Charlotte: 3-3-3-3-3-2=17/30
Miami: 4-5-4-4-2-4=23/30
Orlando: 4-3-3-3-4-4=21/30
Washington: 4-4-3-4-5-3=23/30

Western - Pacific
Golden State: 4-4-3-5-4-4=23/30
LA Clippers: 5-4-3-5-3-5=25/30
LA Lakers: 2-4-2-4-2-5=19/30
Phoenix: 2-5-4-3-4-4=22/30
Sacramento: 3-3-2-4-3-1=19/30

Western - Northwest
Denver: 3-3-3-3-4-3=19/30
Memphis: 3-4-3-4-3-3=20/30
Minnesota: 3-2-3-4-4-2=18/30
Portland: 4-4-4-4-4-3=23/30
Utah: 3-4-3-3-4-1=18/30

Western - Southwest
Dallas: 5-3-4-4-3-4=23/30
Houston: 4-4-2-5-3-3=21/30
New Orleans: 4-3-3-4-5-2=21/30
Oklahoma City: 4-4-3-5-4-2=22/30
San Antonio: 4-5-5-4-3-2=23/30

Top-10 (in order of likelihood)
Cleveland: 3-4-4-5-5-3=25/30
LA Clippers: 5-4-3-5-3-5=25/30
Chicago: 4-4-5-5-2-4=24/30
Golden State: 4-4-3-5-4-4=23/30
Washington: 4-4-3-4-5-3=23/30
Miami: 4-5-4-4-2-4=23/30
Portland: 4-4-4-4-4-3=23/30
Dallas: 5-3-4-4-3-4=23/30
Boston: 4-4-4-2-5-4=23/30
San Antonio: 4-5-5-4-3-2=23/30

Middle Tier
Oklahoma City: 4-4-3-5-4-2=22/30
Indiana: 4-5-4-4-2-3=22/30
Houston: 4-4-2-5-3-3=21/30
Phoenix: 2-5-4-3-4-4=22/30
Toronto: 4-4-3-4-4-3=22/30
Memphis: 3-4-3-4-3-3=20/30
New Orleans: 4-3-3-4-5-2=21/30
LA Lakers: 2-4-2-4-2-5=19/30
Philadelphia: 3-4-3-3-5-3=21/30
Orlando: 4-3-3-3-4-4=21/30

Lower Tier
Denver: 3-3-3-3-4-3=19/30
Atlanta: 3-4-4-3-3-2=19/30
Milwaukee: 4-4-3-2-4-2=19/30
Utah: 3-4-3-3-4-1=18/30
Minnesota: 3-2-3-4-4-2=18/30
Detroit: 3-3-4-3-4-1=18/30
New York: 1-4-3-3-2-5=18/30
Sacramento: 3-3-2-4-3-1=19/30
Charlotte: 3-3-3-3-3-2=17/30
Brooklyn: 4-1-3-2-1-4=15/30

[JMarkJohns]

So you don't just have some kind of faith that Phil will turn things around for the Knicks?

He's too old, it's too big of a job, Dolan is too crappy an owner, and aside from Anthony, they have almost nothing of value, and they just signed him to a max deal with a full no-trade clause. New York should shine brighter, but that is a .500 team at best over next decade unless they win a lottery or two.

[Longhorned]

That's a lot of interesting stuff in those various rankings, JMark. Sounds like you like the new Clippers owner. If prophetic, what a big reversal the LA teams are going through.

It will be interesting to look back at those rankings and see how luck affected things.

A lot more interesting than my randomizer!

[JMarkJohns]

Two things a franchise can't easily get rid of is owner/location, so most rankings reflect that on scale. Of course there's always a Detroit circa 2001-2006 that swindles teams in trade, gets lucky off scrap heap FA, and drafts well enough to make a run, or a shocking rise in lottery, but typically bad FA destination and owners will keep a ceiling for longterm success pretty low.

Lakers and Knicks are the weird anomaly where the ownership is so bad it cancels out top tier location.

Teams like San Antonio and, to a similar reason, Oklahoma City, will have fortunes radically change in coming years as current foundations retire/hit UFA. I think the sleeper of this lotus Washington who is Durants hometown, who is already quality, and if they can get Durant in 2016, they will skyrocket up rankings.

Teams like Phoenix have quality across the board but lack a star, either prime or young.

Teams like Clippers/Warriors are poised to succeed with quality owners, execs, prime/young talent, locations.