This team is soft in big games against good teams

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Mon Feb 27, 2017 4:41 pm

Olsondogg wrote:I like that Miller can't seem to win the big games, and that he may not be that great of a coach...all being discussed in a year in which he's the frontrunner for national coach of the year, as well as p12 coach of the year.

Not anymore

Bear Down Vegas · Post by **Bear Down Vegas** » Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:37 pm

If BeachCat weren't banned for another month plus, he'd be having a field day in this thread. Especially since the loss that spurred it was to UCLA.

Kevin Parrom had my favorite tweet Saturday night (forgive me for paraphrasing) something along the lines of, "The team is going to have to watch every single rebound on tape of this game - but they'll be better for it". I think it even added a SMH.

Here's a player who was hard as nails, never soft, who watched the game. & he knows Coach Miller better than any of us. He knows what is coming for the team today & this week & it sure isn't Miller not preparing his teams.

Fans are so weird.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:50 pm

Bear Down Vegas wrote:
Fans are so weird.

Probably message board people are crazy people.

Bear Down Vegas · Post by **Bear Down Vegas** » Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:57 pm

Longhorned wrote:
Bear Down Vegas wrote:
Fans are so weird.
Probably message board people are crazy people.

Very true.

Living in Vegas...and witnessing the collapse that is the UNLV program, I can tell you - Dave Rice is a good recruiter who needed a better assistant. That tag does not belong to CSM. They're BEGGING to get Romar right now & he's another example of what the OP stated. It just drives me crazy & I know I won't ever quit reading or posting - and I don't have the answers - but "Miller is only a good recruiter but needs in-game help" is not one of them. And it's not close.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:14 pm

Bear Down Vegas wrote:
Longhorned wrote:
Bear Down Vegas wrote:
Fans are so weird.
Probably message board people are crazy people.
Very true.

Living in Vegas...and witnessing the collapse that is the UNLV program, I can tell you - Dave Rice is a good recruiter who needed a better assistant. That tag does not belong to CSM. They're BEGGING to get Romar right now & he's another example of what the OP stated. It just drives me crazy & I know I won't ever quit reading or posting - and I don't have the answers - but "Miller is only a good recruiter but needs in-game help" is not one of them. And it's not close.

In Champaign we have John Groce. The Crying Illini were so eager to fire Bruce Weber, who's now regarded as a local hero. Yet the OP specified that this thread isn't born of a desire to fire Miller, but rather of anxiety -- Killervibe is seeking answers to the baby grand piano (though not a full grand piano) that the the conscience hits the heart with every time the heart hopes for a victory in a huge game, and gets disappointed. It's about playing devil's advocate to get a bigger picture and fuller perspective.

At the level of faith rather than reason, I believe it's good to learn about rebounding in a disappointing loss at home on your way to bigger and better things. You live, you learn, says a young and no doubt overly emotional and underbathed Alanis. But at least you didn't lose to BYU.

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Mon Feb 27, 2017 7:28 pm

Yes how to stop this 4 game losing streak...wait...

How many have we lost in a row?????

Am I confused are we 4 and 26?????

Shit we're right down there at the end of the Pac 12 standings I've been looking at this all wrong...burn down McKale fire Miller, lets get Kevin Krusty the Clown O'Niell back he was really good at benching players and whatnot.

We should just call up the final four coaches pool of available coaches and start a search for someone who can actually give is a winning season, this tie for first is fucking ridiculous especially after losing one in a row...

PennZona20 · Post by **PennZona20** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 6:38 am

Slappy wrote:Killervibe would have had multiple strokes, heart attacks, and countless pointless posts in 1997.

I was there and saw:

Losses @ New Mexico, Michigan, USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Stanford, CAL

Home loss to UCLA.

Watching Digger Phelps go nuts asking who Lute paid off to get a 4 seed, the team was a "bubble" team at best.

Looking completely clueless against a directional Alabama school for 36 minutes in round 1.

Looking like the best team in the nation after knocking off Kansas, only to have God nearly take it all away in an epic collapse, God Shammgod.

Then being 50 to 1 underdogs in the final 4. Only to watch them run Kentucky off the court in OT, Cats could have gone another half.

Teams will have ups and downs, takes some magic to hit it all. The pieces are there this year.

This is all very true. And I remember Digger bitching on whatever they called the bracketology show back then. I remember agreeing w his premise , but not the hyperbole. We were a 6, maybe 7 seed that year. 5 and 7 would be high and low. 6 seed was what we felt like going into tourney.

We felt different after beating KU.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:14 am

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... final-four" target="_blank

Everyone's doomed.

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:23 am

Olsondogg wrote:These debates are fun because unless you end the NCAA without a loss, you always end up losing the biggest game of your season.

In essence, if Arizona busts down the door this year and gets to a Final 4, and then loses that game....there will still be complaints that Miller can't win the biggest game of the season.

67 of 68 teams lose their biggest game of the year, every year.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:39 am

Puerco wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:These debates are fun because unless you end the NCAA without a loss, you always end up losing the biggest game of your season.

In essence, if Arizona busts down the door this year and gets to a Final 4, and then loses that game....there will still be complaints that Miller can't win the biggest game of the season.
67 of 68 teams lose their biggest game of the year, every year.

No one is going to be upset if the Cats get to the final four and then lose unless it is some trash rebounding effort like the other night.

Miller still the best coach to not reach the final four for now, hopefully not in a month.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:41 am

Puerco wrote:
Olsondogg wrote:These debates are fun because unless you end the NCAA without a loss, you always end up losing the biggest game of your season.

In essence, if Arizona busts down the door this year and gets to a Final 4, and then loses that game....there will still be complaints that Miller can't win the biggest game of the season.
67 of 68 teams lose their biggest game of the year, every year.

Puerco nailed it. Exactly my point. So one good coach all year, and Miller is only a good coach if he is that guy every year.

killervibe · Post by **killervibe** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:45 pm

Puerco wrote:67 of 68 teams lose their biggest game of the year, every year.

True. But you may miss my point. I'm not suggesting that Miller should win 100% of his big games, including winning the National Championship each year. I'm pointing out that the data indicates he has a sub .500 record in all big games during his time at Arizona. If his record in those games was.. say.. 70% (including tourney losses), then he'd clearly be capable of preparing his team to win big games.

On a related point, its true that 67 teams in the NCAA tourney lose their biggest game of the season, however, many programs wouldn't necessarily consider that to be a failure. Approximately 50% of the teams will just be happy to make the tourney so they'll still consider it a success, even one win makes it that much sweeter. 30% of the teams will be disappointed if they don't make it to the Sweet 16 but would consider the tourney a success if they do. 15% of teams, including Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, UVA, and Gonzaga would currently consider a Final Four success. The remaining 5% expect National Championships each year, this includes Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Kansas, and recently Villanova. Anything less for those teams is a failure.

So while I understand the point you're attempting to make, expectations vary by program.

prh · Post by **prh** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:55 pm

KV did you see my response to your question? I think you missed it for an Dogg post that followed, but I'd be curious your response. I still believe it's disingenuous to use your list of big games, and think a much more accurate list of big games leads to a record closer to 11-5.

killervibe · Post by **killervibe** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:46 pm

PRH - I did miss your post, thanks for pointing it out. I'm on the fence about it. I see your point and understand that it requires a few years after you take over a program to get your players and system in place. However, Miller took the 2010/11 team to the Elite 8 and we give him credit for it. The cupboards weren't exactly bare. Why would we credit him for the wins the previous year but not for the losses in his 2nd year? However, you are correct. If we cut him some slack for those first couple of years, his win percentage is far more respectable.. until this year.

Harvey Specter · Post by **Harvey Specter** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 10:28 pm

killervibe wrote:PRH - I did miss your post, thanks for pointing it out. I'm on the fence about it. I see your point and understand that it requires a few years after you take over a program to get your players and system in place. However, Miller took the 2010/11 team to the Elite 8 and we give him credit for it. The cupboards weren't exactly bare. Why would we credit him for the wins the previous year but not for the losses in his 2nd year? However, you are correct. If we cut him some slack for those first couple of years, his win percentage is far more respectable.. until this year.

Are you suggesting the cupboards were not bare when he arrived here?

His first class turned out to be better than anyone expected... but that was all on him (the fact that Sol grew up a Cats fan helped I am sure). What exactly did he inherit that was so impressive?

His 2nd recruiting class was the only one since that was not stellar... that, combined with the shitty roster he inherited & DW's departure made year 3 below standards. He owns is, but it's hardly something most will hold against him.

killervibe · Post by **killervibe** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 10:46 pm

Harvey Specter wrote:Are you suggesting the cupboards were not bare when he arrived here?

Edit: I had my years confused. Yes, things were a bit barren when he took over but his first class was pretty darn good. In fact, because I had my years confused, that 2011/2012 season was his third. So yeah, those wins/losses should absolutely be considered in this conversation.

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:15 pm

killervibe wrote:
Puerco wrote:67 of 68 teams lose their biggest game of the year, every year.
True. But you may miss my point. I'm not suggesting that Miller should win 100% of his big games, including winning the National Championship each year. I'm pointing out that the data indicates he has a sub .500 record in all big games during his time at Arizona. If his record in those games was.. say.. 70% (including tourney losses), then he'd clearly be capable of preparing his team to win big games.

On a related point, its true that 67 teams in the NCAA tourney lose their biggest game of the season, however, many programs wouldn't necessarily consider that to be a failure. Approximately 50% of the teams will just be happy to make the tourney so they'll still consider it a success, even one win makes it that much sweeter. 30% of the teams will be disappointed if they don't make it to the Sweet 16 but would consider the tourney a success if they do. 15% of teams, including Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, UVA, and Gonzaga would currently consider a Final Four success. The remaining 5% expect National Championships each year, this includes Duke, UNC, Kentucky, Kansas, and recently Villanova. Anything less for those teams is a failure.

So while I understand the point you're attempting to make, expectations vary by program.

I was missing the larger point of your OP purposefully and responding to one single statement within it. Not very useful, I know, but the best I can do for now till I have time to give the topic some serious thought.

prh · Post by **prh** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:20 pm

killervibe wrote:PRH - I did miss your post, thanks for pointing it out. I'm on the fence about it. I see your point and understand that it requires a few years after you take over a program to get your players and system in place. However, Miller took the 2010/11 team to the Elite 8 and we give him credit for it. The cupboards weren't exactly bare. Why would we credit him for the wins the previous year but not for the losses in his 2nd year? However, you are correct. If we cut him some slack for those first couple of years, his win percentage is far more respectable.. until this year.

Thanks for taking a moment to go back and find it. The answer I would give to the bolded is that we aren't trying to give credits for wins and losses. We are trying to find past games which represent a certain type of game, which we can then use to extrapolate patterns from. I don't believe the games provided from those two "bad" years fit that "certain type" that we are looking for. We are looking for games which can be considered big games and can demonstrate either being prepared or being not prepared. When the team is just a generally bad team, and it is facing a much better team, we lose part of the ability to discern whether the team was prepared or not and also whether they performed better or worse than would be expected.

For instance, take ASU this year. They have had losses @ McKale (16 points), @UCLA (22), @Oregon (1), and UCLA (12). I think it would be easy for us to agree that they performed above potential/preparedness vs Oregon, below vs UCLA the first time, and somewhere in the middle for us and UCLA #2. However, from the black and white perspective of W/L, they would be categorized as not being able to win the big games. In reality, they're just not a very good team. This isn't to say Hurley isn't responsible for the losses, it just means that those losses are not very useful as an indicator of big game preparedness.

This is why I don't believe the 2012 and 2016 teams are very useful in this discussion. It's not that Miller isn't responsible for the losses, it's just that those losses are not very relevant for what we are trying to ascertain.

killervibe · Post by **killervibe** » Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:44 pm

prh wrote:This is why I don't believe the 2012 and 2016 teams are very useful in this discussion. It's not that Miller isn't responsible for the losses, it's just that those losses are not very relevant for what we are trying to ascertain.

I understand your point. It looks like we just disagree on this one. I believe those years are relevant, otherwise we could say any year that the Wildcats have a higher percentage of losses in big games should be disregarded simply because they lost more that year. 2 of 8 is 1/4 of the sample size, they're not outliers.

pokinmik · Post by **pokinmik** » Wed Mar 01, 2017 6:46 am

Unless you are Bill Belicheck or some other legendary coach, most good coaches are around .500 in big games across all sports. That's how it works. Beat up on the lesser competition at a 90% clip or whatever and then it's a crapshoot in the big games versus other stud coaches.

You are basically mad because Miller isn't Belicheck or Pop or Coach K yet.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:12 am

killervibe wrote:
prh wrote:This is why I don't believe the 2012 and 2016 teams are very useful in this discussion. It's not that Miller isn't responsible for the losses, it's just that those losses are not very relevant for what we are trying to ascertain.
I understand your point. It looks like we just disagree on this one. I believe those years are relevant, otherwise we could say any year that the Wildcats have a higher percentage of losses in big games should be disregarded simply because they lost more that year. 2 of 8 is 1/4 of the sample size, they're not outliers.

It gets to the base concept of what preparation for a big game really is. What is a big game for a NIT team?

The whole concept of a big game is nebulous and tends to be weighted by what the fan thinks is memorable. For instance, KV's list has several L's to unranked teams, but doesn't cite to wins against the same unranked teams.

Example: if a loss to an unranked USC team in 15-16 was a big loss, why are W's against an unranked USC team in 16-17 not big wins? SC was not significantly better last year as opposed to this year. Th overriding thing is that it's bigger when we lose.

RiseAndFire · Post by **RiseAndFire** » Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:28 am

how many times have we lost a postseason game in SoCal in front of a huge pro-UA crowd?

off the top of my head
vs Wisky
vs Oh St
vs Uconn
vs Wash P12 title game
vs Colorado P12 title game

only big win was Duke and that one we had nothing to lose as a 4 seed and big underdog

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:32 am

RiseAndFire wrote:how many times have we lost a postseason game in SoCal in front of a huge pro-UA crowd?

off the top of my head
vs Wisky
vs Oh St
vs Uconn
vs Wash P12 title game
vs Colorado P12 title game

only big win was Duke and that one we had nothing to lose as a 4 seed and big underdog

kansas elite 8 2003
utah elite 8 1998 i believe.

playing post season games in california is a death sentence for this program.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:41 am

ASUHATER! wrote:
RiseAndFire wrote:how many times have we lost a postseason game in SoCal in front of a huge pro-UA crowd?

off the top of my head
vs Wisky
vs Oh St
vs Uconn
vs Wash P12 title game
vs Colorado P12 title game

only big win was Duke and that one we had nothing to lose as a 4 seed and big underdog
kansas elite 8 2003
utah elite 8 1998 i believe.

playing post season games in california is a death sentence for this program.

Pathetic talk

EVCat · Post by **EVCat** » Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:11 am

I see coincidence, but nothing to support cause.

For every Elite Eight loss in Cali, we had a Sweet 16 win....

Harvey Specter · Post by **Harvey Specter** » Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:52 pm

Correlation without causation.

elriop20 · Post by **elriop20** » Thu Mar 02, 2017 1:28 am

TBH I think Oregon and UCLA are better teams this year. We haven't had any bad losses and we can beat anyone, but usually the better team wins.

Main Event · Post by **Main Event** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:24 am

Soft alright

Do we have to beat Oregon tomorrow for the "big game" BS to stop or we gonna pretend this game wasn't huge?

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:25 am

Time to change the thread title???

Harvey Specter · Post by **Harvey Specter** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:42 am

elriop20 wrote:TBH I think Oregon and UCLA are better teams this year. We haven't had any bad losses and we can beat anyone, but usually the better team wins.

So we beat UCLA by double digits in 2 out of 3 games, but they are better than us.

Got it.

MrBug708 · Post by **MrBug708** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:58 am

Harvey Specter wrote:
elriop20 wrote:TBH I think Oregon and UCLA are better teams this year. We haven't had any bad losses and we can beat anyone, but usually the better team wins.
So we beat UCLA by double digits in 2 out of 3 games, but they are better than us.

Got it.

You must not have been around in 97

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:11 am

Main Event wrote:Soft alright

Do we have to beat Oregon tomorrow for the "big game" BS to stop or we gonna pretend this game wasn't huge?

Not going to stop till we get to a couple Final Fours, I think.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:42 am

Main Event wrote:Soft alright

Do we have to beat Oregon tomorrow for the "big game" BS to stop or we gonna pretend this game wasn't huge?

Well, we could do both. Then the haters will just have to pretend neither was big if we lose in the NCAA's.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:44 am

Subjectively you can add the last two to then the game list.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:05 am

ANGCatFan · Post by **ANGCatFan** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:45 pm

killervibe wrote:No surprise that we lost to UCLA. I couldn't find a single sports pundit that picked Arizona. Not after that devastating loss to Oregon. Their confidence has been in the toilet. There is absolutely no doubt that this team is soft when it counts the most.

Sean Miller simply isn't a big game coach. He's an amazing recruiter, but when it comes to preparing his NBA caliber players for big games against good teams, they almost always fall short. That's why he's likely to never move past the Elite 8.. with any team, no matter how talented.

To be clear, I don't want to lose him. I just wish he could find an assistant that is better at big game preparation than he is to help the program.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:13 pm

killervibe · Post by **killervibe** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 2:59 pm

No doubt, two great wins in big games against good teams. I hope it continues and Sean is able to prove me wrong. Until then, his record in similar games is still sub .500.

The last two games have been especially sweet.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:46 pm

I like that he's sticking with the thread. Ballsy.

Harvey Specter · Post by **Harvey Specter** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:56 pm

MrBug708 wrote:
Harvey Specter wrote:
elriop20 wrote:TBH I think Oregon and UCLA are better teams this year. We haven't had any bad losses and we can beat anyone, but usually the better team wins.
So we beat UCLA by double digits in 2 out of 3 games, but they are better than us.

Got it.
You must not have been around in 97

You mean the year we lost by 6 at Pauley in OT, and by 2 at Home to UCLA? I think that was the same year we Lost 7 conference games by a total of 34 points... One double digit lost at USC, and 5 by 5 or less.

Yeah, I was around that year. We were not the best team in the conference .

Except in March and April.

killervibe · Post by **killervibe** » Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:50 pm

Godspeed all. Enjoy the off season.

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