Official Bracketology Thread

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:10 pm

The Duke love fest is in full effect

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:16 pm

Then give me their bracket cause they ain't going anywhere.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:22 pm

Give Duke the 1 and watch them lose to the 16.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:29 pm

I guess I'm old enough to remember when losing games mattered.

Duke lost at home to NC State which is a truly atrocious loss. They also have losses to Miami, VTech and Syracuse who are all rather likely to be out in the round of 64 IMO.

North Carlolina has losses to Georgia Tech and Indiana as well as a loss @ Miami.

That conference has is deep but I think teams like Louisville and Florida State are being given way too much credit.

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:33 pm

@ 10 seconds into the video, VP of NCAAM basketball and committee head talk about 6 teams being considered for the 1 line. The PAC 12 championship and ACC championship will could have an effect on those #1 seeds.

Which I imagine is, KU, Nova, Gonzaga, Oregon, Duke, UNC or UA. I'm thinking Arizona isn't in the discussions for the #1 but UNC is. Else the ACC champion (if it's Duke) wouldn't factor in, and the PAC 12 champion (Ore or Ariz) would be in line for the last #1.

UNC gets the last #1 if both Oregon and Duke lose

Think we're a #2 seed no matter what happens tonight

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:50 pm

There's still a chance.. Arizona will be in the discussion.

Don't let Arizona's current No. 3 seed fool you in today's bracket, the Wildcats are still very much in contention to shoot up to a No. 1 seed should they win the Pac-12 tournament in Las Vegas. The No. 2 and No. 3 line difference is as close as it gets this year. Beating UCLA was big, but beating Oregon would speak volumes for Arizona nabbing a top seed when going against the likes of other contenders Kentucky and Gonzaga.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... /99049964/" target="_blank

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:51 pm

So we are playing to stay in the west or be shipped. I'm cool with that.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:03 pm

That doesn't make any sense re: AZ & Oregon

If AZ wins they'd have 3 marquee wins (all road or neutral court games), 6 top 50 RPI wins and all four losses coming to top 15 RPI teams.

If OR wins they'd have 3 marquee wins (2 of 3 at home), 5 top 50 RPI wins and a pretty bad loss to Colorado.

Also, while both teams have dealt with injuries, Arizona had spent more time without frontline players.

I really don't see any way that you could justify a PAC-12 tournament champ Oregon as a one but not do the same for Arizona, as Arizona clearly would have the better resume if they were to win tonight.

If it weren't for the Butler shenanigans this wouldn't even be a debate.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:05 pm

I'm calling it now, the shocker is going to be Gonzaga as a 2 in the west. If that happens that's going to be a fun message board to read. Especially if we're the 1.

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:21 pm

Yeah, Lunardi just came on the SEC semifinal pregame show and said Duke as a 1 seed wasn't happening.

Not that I think he's some insider, but he's no fan of the Blue Devils even meriting a 1 line consideration.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:31 pm

Duke has a number of very good wins but loses to VT, Cuse, Miami aren't good for a 1 seed. Not to mention that horrible lose to NC St.

NYCat · Post by **NYCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:38 pm

azgreg wrote:Duke has a number of very good wins but loses to VT, Cuse, Miami aren't good for a 1 seed. Not to mention that horrible lose to NC St.

Think it's pretty obvious by now that loses don't mean as much as good wins to the committee. Those acc teams like Louisville, UNC, Duke, have a ton of them.

Let's face it, the PAC 12 is pretty weak. And they're getting treated like a mid Major conference.

catgrad97 wrote:Yeah, Lunardi just came on the SEC semifinal pregame show and said Duke as a 1 seed wasn't happening.

Not that I think he's some insider, but he's no fan of the Blue Devils even meriting a 1 line consideration.

The official NCAA guy pretty much said otherwise, like you said Lunardi doesn't have any insider info on what the committee does.

Besides that, Lunardi is good at guessing the field but terrible with seeds, regions etc.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:20 pm

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:40 pm

Duke as a #1 seed?

Can someone please explain to me how the #5 seeded team in the ACC is a potential #1 overall seed?

This is fuzzy math and a complete joke.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:48 pm

B/C Duke

Frybry02 · Post by **Frybry02** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:56 pm

Do you really want a piece of Duke? Their talent looks to be finally gelling and that's scary. Talent isn't everything but their 6/7 man rotation are all McDonald's All Americans with the 7th being Harry Giles(not sure why he wasn't McDAA,injury???). they have an 8th on the bench that barely sees the floor.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:57 pm

So the PAC 12 is getting three teams in? Three of the top 10-12 highest seeded teams and then nothing? That seems extreme.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:32 pm

Alieberman wrote:Duke as a #1 seed?

Can someone please explain to me how the #5 seeded team in the ACC is a potential #1 overall seed?

This is fuzzy math and a complete joke.

I think it is extremely difficult to maintain credibility if one were to put a team that got fifth in their conference as a #1 seed, particularly so when none of the other four teams above them were #1 seeds in the end.

EVCat · Post by **EVCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 8:32 pm

I'd LOVE a piece of Duke as a #1.

As a 4 or 3, they scare the shit out of me if we are a 1 or 2. But as a 1? A team that chrcks out mentally as easy as they do?

Duke is not a 1 seed quality. I know it is thin at the top but this has to be clickbait. No fucking way can a team play themselves from the bubble of protected seeding to a 1 with one hot weekend, right?

Our outside chance at a 1 went away with Boucher's ACL, I figure

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:07 pm

I'm cool with not getting a one seed and getting g shipped.

Let's get 2 in the west.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:24 pm

Well we're the 2 in the West or the 1 in the South

Either way, giddy up!!!

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:25 pm

Still think we get the 2 out West. Tiny chance we're competing with Duke/UNC for the last 1 seed.

SCCats · Post by **SCCats** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:27 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:Still think we get the 2 out West. Tiny chance we're competing with Duke/UNC for the last 1 seed.

As far as the 1 in the South goes...

I think UNC lost in when they went out in their SEMIS

Duke was 11-7 in conference. Are you going to give an 11-7 team in conference a #1?

That said, I personally (and for our fans) would probably rather have the WEST 2.

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:34 pm

As far as I am concerned the Zags can have the 1 seed in the west. The 2 seed is find with me.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:35 pm

SCCats wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:Still think we get the 2 out West. Tiny chance we're competing with Duke/UNC for the last 1 seed.
As far as the 1 in the South goes...

I think UNC lost in when they went out in their SEMIS

Duke was 11-7 in conference. Are you going to give an 11-7 team in conference a #1?

That said, I personally (and for our fans) would probably rather have the WEST 2.

Yeah for the fans I'd rather we play in San Jose instead of Memphis..But the West region has been a death sentence for this program for 19 years now.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:36 pm

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:37 pm

84Cat wrote:

1 seed

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:38 pm

84Cat wrote:

I wonder if Lunardi still has us as a 3 seed

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:38 pm

Gonzaga fans are about to feel butthurt.

You can't discount recency bias. There is nothing in the calendar year of 2017 that suggests that the Zags are elite (meaning number 1 seed elite.) I think that will end up mattering.

Also, BYU beat Gonzaga at the Kennel. That's the equivalent RPI wise of Arizona losing to Colorado State or New Mexico State at McKale. That should be a big problem for them IMO.

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:41 pm

Chicat wrote:
84Cat wrote:
1 seed

And probably over Gonzaga. You don't ship out a conference champ with two top 5 wins in the last two days.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:42 pm

When you have three top 10 teams from one conference in the top 10, and they have 3 road/neutral court wins against them (top 5 teams), two in the final two days of the season and both in dominating fashion (we dominated Oregon if you eliminate the officiating), and your only two losses from December 4 and on come to said two top 10 teams, and you only have two other losses, both to RPI top 15 teams and without your best player in both and your then starting PG in one....

Thats a 1 seed.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:45 pm

ASUHATER! wrote:
84Cat wrote:
I wonder if Lunardi still has us as a 3 seed

He's had us as a 2 lead since yesterday.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:47 pm

I think we were 3rd and we passed Kansas tonight

wyo-cat · Post by **wyo-cat** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:49 pm

KU and UNC both lost in their tourneys. That's gotta mean something.

KU didn't even make the semis of their tourney. Looks like a 2 seed to me.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:55 pm

azgreg wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:
84Cat wrote:
I wonder if Lunardi still has us as a 3 seed
He's had us as a 2 lead since yesterday.

Majority of bracket people at least had us as a 3 as of midday today. The bracket matrix website that averages out a dozen or two bracket predictions had us as a 3.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:57 pm

wyo-cat wrote:KU and UNC both lost in their tourneys. That's gotta mean something.

KU didn't even make the semis of their tourney. Looks like a 2 seed to me.

If we get it it will be over Gonzaga. They will use Josh Jacksons suspension in that loss as an excuse and "10 ACC teams in the tourny zOMG" and losing to Duke "slurp slurp" as an excuse for UNC

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:59 pm

catgrad97 wrote:
Chicat wrote:
84Cat wrote:
1 seed
And probably over Gonzaga. You don't ship out a conference champ with two top 5 wins in the last two days.

Especially when those two wins wouldn't be possible w/o Alonzo Trier.

Edit: and PJC for that matter. I think the game w/ Gonzaga 4 months ago is less of an issue with the commitee than groupthink would dictate.

The resumes in the last 3 months aren't even close. 3 months is a long time.

EVCat · Post by **EVCat** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:06 am

I keep hearing about top 25 wins or top 50 wins. A useful metric, no doubt.

But there is not nearly enough talk about an idea that maybe isn't so numerically easy so it gets dismissed...the difficulty of never losing to a lesser team. Kansas lost to a 26+ team. UCLA lost to a 26+ team. Duke lost to a few 26+ teams. Villanova did. Gonzaga did...

We did not. We beat every lesser team we played, even 15 times in conference and one time in the conference tournament. While every other team in this country took the eye off the prize for some moment that bit them, we handled our business and still managed to to beat 3 top 10 teams (or two top 10 teams a total of 3 times).

If 7 wins in the top 25 is used to lord over a team with only 4, then ZERO losses to teams 26-100 should be used to lord over potentially similar seeded teams with a handful. What makes beating 3 more top 25s so much better than handling them?

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:09 am

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb ... gy/bracket" target="_blank

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:11 am

Not shooting the messenger Irish. It's just that that bracket is pure shit. If you're going to bend the laws of time and space to get Duke a 1 seed, no damn way you give the Blue Devils home court on top of that. Not this year.

Then stick a 30-win Arizona, for the second time in the last three seasons, at a 2 seed below an untested 1? C'mon, this isn't Duke and 63 other teams before the tourney even starts. Give me a break.

Good points EVCat. Let the bad losses be the selection committee's guide to seeding tomorrow. Arizona and Villanova are the only two teams who can boast zero on the season.

EVCat · Post by **EVCat** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:12 am

you lose to North Carolina State or TCU and we didn't lose to Cal/Stanford/WSU/UW/USC/ASU/Oregon State/Colorado/Utah...

That's the real test of the one and done tournament. Can you win the games you should? We have. Every. Single. Time.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:17 am

I want, selfishly, 1 in the west or 2 in the west.

1 in the south would be a punishment, that the cats don't deserve.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:23 am

Gonzaga to the South as a 1. Duke or Kentucky as the 2. That seems about right ratings wise. We get the other as our 2. UNC is Villanova's 2. Oregon the 2 in Kansas' bracket.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:25 am

We beat Oregon and dropped a spot in kenpom

we beat Rado, UCLA and Oregon all in convincing fashion (sans scotts buddies making oregon close) and dropped a spot in kenpom

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:26 am

Who the f- uses KenPom as a seeding guide anymore?

RaisingArizona's top 8 SHOULD be correct. Of course, it probably won't be, and Duke's bought a South 1 before. The last time it won the title, in fact.

Ideally, his scenario + Duke as the West 2 seed SHOULD happen.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:26 am

RaisingArizona wrote:Gonzaga to the South as a 1. Duke or Kentucky as the 2. That seems about right ratings wise. We get the other as our 2. UNC is Villanova's 2. Oregon the 2 in Kansas' bracket.

This I like, and probably too smart for the NCAA to actually do.

RaisingArizona · Post by **RaisingArizona** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:28 am

CalStateTempe wrote:
RaisingArizona wrote:Gonzaga to the South as a 1. Duke or Kentucky as the 2. That seems about right ratings wise. We get the other as our 2. UNC is Villanova's 2. Oregon the 2 in Kansas' bracket.
This I like, and probably too smart for the NCAA to actually do.

I'd rather just be Gonzaga's 2. Though I am pretty bearish on the zags.

But I agree that the potential elite 8 of Kansas/Oregon (MW), Villanova/UNC (E), Gonzaga/Duke (S), Arizona/Kentucky (W) should be intriguing to the NCAA.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:37 am

come west duke...please.

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:41 am

Guys, I dont want Duke. They dont deserve the seed they will get, but they are red hot and Tatum is going to be this tournaments Carnelo Anthony. Dude was unreal in the ACC tournament and we dont have an answer for him.

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:49 am

Anytime, anywhere with Duke. The Blue Devils are one matchup with a fundamentally sound mid-major away from an early exit.

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