ASU v. UA discussion thread

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:42 pm

Looks like no one will see the UA beat down ASU

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:45 pm

"Might not" be able to see it?

Is that a tacit recognition of all those who say, "Screw you, Larry Scott, I'm watching an illegal stream that Merkin gives me a link to by PM"?

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:00 pm

Arizona State at Arizona Men's Basketball
Arizona State takes on Arizona in Men's Basketball. Tune in on Pac-12 Network and Pac-12 Arizona at 6:00pm on December 30, 2017. Live Stream at pac-12.com or on the Pac-12 Now app. Tickets info may be found here.

http://pac-12.com/mens-basketball/event ... te-arizona" target="_blank

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:03 pm

I'm worried for this game. Some times they come out tight in big games.

BBQ wildcat · Post by **BBQ wildcat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:07 pm

If it will be streaming, I'm good with that. But wish it were a wider audience -- even ESPN2 or ESPNU would be better than PAC-12, by a wide margin.

This one makes me real nervous. But I think the crowd will help pull it out for us. It will be LOUD, for sure.

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:13 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:I'm worried for this game. Some times they come out tight in big games.

Anything can happen, but I like what I saw last night against UConn. Cats looked confident, made a nice run at the end of the game. They look ready for the 30th.
Hope the bench wakes up by then.

espn info
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... =400988292" target="_blank

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:14 pm

ASU is going to come in with a big chip on their shoulder and something to prove. ASU isn't a bad team but they are nowhere near top 5 in the nation good. Doesn't mean they can't give us a run for our money. Arizona on the other hand, I believe is top 5 good, especially with Rawle. The good news is, if they miraculously pull something off, it's not like losing to them will hurt our resume as badly as it has in the past. Miller will have them ready. And ASU is ready to lose. I think we win by 12.

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:58 pm

So, other than their 3 point shooting (which our defense isn’t good at), what other strengths of ASU are concerning? Anyone with knowledge care to preview this game for us please? Thanks in advance.

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:04 pm

If we get that sorry ass ref from last night we might have issues, the refs are the only thing I can see beyond guarding the three and stopping penetration...

I know Ristic fouls but Ayton generally does not...last nights game was pure bullshit on the ref end...

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:10 pm

CatFanOneMil wrote:If we get that sorry ass ref from last night we might have issues, the refs are the only thing I can see beyond guarding the three and stopping penetration...

I know Ristic fouls but Ayton generally does not...last nights game was pure bullshit on the ref end...

We’re going to have P12 Refs and we know how they love to call fouls.....last night was outrageously bad for at least 3 / 4 of his fouls....it was almost like ‘He’s so big and physically superior, we have to call a foul as there must have been illegal contact’....scary thought if this could be a trend.

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:18 pm

Miller is 12-4 against ASU. That includes his first year. Hurley is 0-4 against AZ.

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:27 pm

PJC- Holder (Adv- Holder)
Evans-Trier (even or slight edge to Trier)
Justice-Rawle (Rawle)
Mitchell- Ayton (Ayton)
White- Ristic (Even or slight edge to Ristic)

Have to give slight edge to ASU at this point when it comes to the bench.

When I look at how we match up with them, I mean on a good day Evans can take Trier and White can take Ristic. I still take our guys over theirs. Holder is damn good. I have liked him since day one. But I have faith that PJC can bother Holder. Not too many guards are small enough to get up and into Holder the way PJC can.

The Remy kid off the bench is really active and athletic. But he is not a game changer. I can't believe KU let him run all over them. Other than him the only other help off the bench is Shibel who is a pretty decent spot up shooter.

Miller will have our guys ready.

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:32 pm

ASU's strength is their three guard attack of Holder, Evans and Justice/Remy.

Have to like our chances when you put those guys against PJC, Trier and Rawle, especially when you consider the front courts complimenting our guys.

PJC/Holder the matchup to watch.

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:42 pm

pg 6'1- 180 vs 5'11- 170
sg 6'1- 172 vs 6'5- 205
sg/sf- 6'5- 190 vs 6'5- 220
pf- 6'7- 210 vs 7'1- 250
pf/c- 6'8- 220 vs 7'0- 245

I really don't see how they can overcome the disparity outside of Holder.

Bangkok Wildcat · Post by **Bangkok Wildcat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:48 pm

Interesting points / analysis Bordercat. Thanks much!

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 8:59 pm

PJC just needs to slow Holder down, make it hard for him. If he can hold him to 10-12 points that would be big.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:02 pm

fuck asu

RiseAndFire · Post by **RiseAndFire** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:44 pm

Bordercat wrote:pg 6'1- 180 vs 5'11- 170
sg 6'1- 172 vs 6'5- 205
sg/sf- 6'5- 190 vs 6'5- 220
pf- 6'7- 210 vs 7'1- 250
pf/c- 6'8- 220 vs 7'0- 245

I really don't see how they can overcome the disparity outside of Holder.

Conventional wisdom would agree, but their small size is actually an advantage against a Miller team that has been predictable for going on a decade now. Most teams with descent talent will match or outscore us in the paint: UCONN, Bama, A&M, UNLV, SMU, Purdue, and CSUB

all did that. Some of those teams biggest player was 6'8. Having the 7' lottery pick defending 30' from the paint because pack line will do that to you. Ayton will need to be superhuman again and power the offense or we're going to be looking at these clowns in their horrid unis dancing on our midcourt after this game.

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:49 pm

RiseAndFire wrote:
Bordercat wrote:pg 6'1- 180 vs 5'11- 170
sg 6'1- 172 vs 6'5- 205
sg/sf- 6'5- 190 vs 6'5- 220
pf- 6'7- 210 vs 7'1- 250
pf/c- 6'8- 220 vs 7'0- 245

I really don't see how they can overcome the disparity outside of Holder.
Conventional wisdom would agree, but their small size is actually an advantage against a Miller team that has been predictable for going on a decade now. Most teams with descent talent will match or outscore us in the paint: UCONN, Bama, A&M, UNLV, SMU, Purdue, and CSUB all did that. Some of those teams biggest player was 6'8. Having the 7' lottery pick defending 30' from the paint because pack line will do that to you. Ayton will need to be superhuman again and power the offense or we're going to be looking at these clowns in their horrid unis dancing on our midcourt after this game.

If we game plan our offense to go inside to Ayton & Ristic, ASU will either get eaten alive or be forced to double team. I wouldn't be surprised if they played multiple defenses against us with some matchup zone, trapping, etc...anything to throw us out of our comfort zone. As long as our objective is to get the ball inside for the best available shot, we'll have plenty of open looks from the perimeter. Pick your poison ASU. Pick your poison.

enfuego · Post by **enfuego** » Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:21 pm

Bordercat wrote:pg 6'1- 180 vs 5'11- 170
sg 6'1- 172 vs 6'5- 205
sg/sf- 6'5- 190 vs 6'5- 220
pf- 6'7- 210 vs 7'1- 250
pf/c- 6'8- 220 vs 7'0- 245

I really don't see how they can overcome the disparity outside of Holder.

In what universe is PJC 5'11? He MAY be 5'5" in shoes.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 6:07 am

Bordercat wrote:pg 6'1- 180 vs 5'11- 170
sg 6'1- 172 vs 6'5- 205
sg/sf- 6'5- 190 vs 6'5- 220
pf- 6'7- 210 vs 7'1- 250
pf/c- 6'8- 220 vs 7'0- 245

I really don't see how they can overcome the disparity outside of Holder.

Yeah I've seen this show before...we're going to end up having to match up with them. Erase the 7'0 245 guy and add a 6'6 175 guy likely.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:02 am

ASU won’t be missing 3’s with late close outs. No twin towers after 16:00 first half.

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 7:41 am

Wow I can't believe you guys are so worried about ASU.

Their guards against our guards.

Our bigs against their bigs.

I like our chances.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:13 am

I like our chances, too. So do the computers.

Arizona needs to defend guard penetration and close out on shooters. Arizona might not do those things, but they can.

ASU, on the other hand, can’t defend Ayton. If he stays out of foul trouble, ASU has 35 minutes of no answer to that problem other than hoping our guards can’t hit open 3’s that day.

Rebounding will be another disadvantage for ASU.

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:21 am

like I said I think PJC can bother Holder.
Trier and Evans I like our matchup.
Rawle all day over Justice.

White might give Ristic some trouble but that goes both ways.

I really think the Holder/PJC match is very important. And what do you do with Remy when he comes in, because Rawle will have trouble keeping up with him. But then Rawle can beast him out.

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:23 am

Damon Stoudamire, talked about the pressure ASU puts on you.

ASU showed a lot of full court pressure. I'll be curious how ASU tries to defend us. I'm sure they will mix it up.

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:24 am

Something else... this game will come after a long Christmas break.

I think that makes for an ugly game which favors AZ IMO.

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:11 am

saw this on reddit about a week ago, asu didn't attempt any mid range shots vs vandy

i'm pretty sure the packline forces teams to shoot from 3, protecting the inside of the 3 by a pack line.

if they're hitting they're 3s, we could be in trouble. if not, we can coast to a win with the benefit of a home crowd.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 9:59 am

Serious question: biggest game in the history of the rivalry? Granted, I’ve only followed AZ hoops since the mid 90s, but I can’t remember another time both teams were legit top 10 teams.

That said, I don’t think we’re winning by double digits. Need to get it to Ayton often and force them to foul. And obviously we need to get a freaking hand in their face when they start raining threes. If ASU gets lots of open looks, they could open up a big lead. Like our game at Eugene last year.

I do think we’ll win, but it’s gonna be very close.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:58 am

f*ck ASU

Main Event · Post by **Main Event** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:04 am

These guys are worse defensively than us by a wide margin and we have dudes in here really worried about how we're going to guard them?

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:09 am

Bordercat wrote: Their guards against our guards.

I agree with you that I like az’s chances in this game but if ASU has a clear advantage it’s at PG - this will be another major test for ‘little’ PJC as Walton likes to call him.

FightWildcatsFight · Post by **FightWildcatsFight** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:09 am

Bordercat wrote:like I said I think PJC can bother Holder.
Trier and Evans I like our matchup.
Rawle all day over Justice.

White might give Ristic some trouble but that goes both ways.

I really think the Holder/PJC match is very important. And what do you do with Remy when he comes in, because Rawle will have trouble keeping up with him. But then Rawle can beast him out.

White is about 40 times more athletic than Ristic. On the offensive end Ristic will get his, but ASU can run and White could probably get a steal and a running layup before Ristic is even across half court. Same with Lake.

Close out on 3's and don't let their "bigs" get going. Easier said than done but that's all that needs to happen imo.

FightWildcatsFight · Post by **FightWildcatsFight** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:10 am

Main Event wrote:These guys are worse defensively than us by a wide margin and we have dudes in here really worried about how we're going to guard them?

What's the conflict here? They're elite offensively, and bad at defense.

Main Event · Post by **Main Event** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:20 am

FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:These guys are worse defensively than us by a wide margin and we have dudes in here really worried about how we're going to guard them?
What's the conflict here? They're elite offensively, and bad at defense.

Arizona is just as elite offensively here with a bigger mismatch than ASU and not the gap defensively. Why are people worried over this game?

FightWildcatsFight · Post by **FightWildcatsFight** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:31 am

Main Event wrote:
FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:These guys are worse defensively than us by a wide margin and we have dudes in here really worried about how we're going to guard them?
What's the conflict here? They're elite offensively, and bad at defense.
Arizona is just as elite offensively here with a bigger mismatch than ASU and not the gap defensively. Why are people worried over this game?

In what way is Arizona just as elite offensively? RPI has us #36 OFFQ to their #6 OFFQ. They beat us in pretty much every offensive stat.

And we are #60 DEFQ, let's not pretend that we are a defensive juggernaut. Not to mention the fact that they rebound better than we do. I don't think we lose, but it won't be a cakewalk like you all are making it out to be. They're undefeated for a reason.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:31 am

It is weird to say after Ristic went for 17 and 10, but he should not get serious minutes.

Ristic should only be playing when Ayton is on the bench and Randolph should take his starting spot. His defense is atrocious and it removes Ayton from being the rim protector than he can be.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:32 am

Main Event wrote:
FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:These guys are worse defensively than us by a wide margin and we have dudes in here really worried about how we're going to guard them?
What's the conflict here? They're elite offensively, and bad at defense.
Arizona is just as elite offensively here with a bigger mismatch than ASU and not the gap defensively. Why are people worried over this game?

You can be confident of an AZ victory while still respecting ASU’s performance up to this point.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:34 am

FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:
FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:These guys are worse defensively than us by a wide margin and we have dudes in here really worried about how we're going to guard them?
What's the conflict here? They're elite offensively, and bad at defense.
Arizona is just as elite offensively here with a bigger mismatch than ASU and not the gap defensively. Why are people worried over this game?
In what way is Arizona just as elite offensively? RPI has us #36 OFFQ to their #6 OFFQ. They beat us in pretty much every offensive stat.

Kenpom has us #5 and ASU #4 in AdjO. They also have us 71 spots higher in defensive efficiency against a SOS that is 60 spots more difficult then ASU's.

We are a much better team and I am pretty positive we will dominate them

FightWildcatsFight · Post by **FightWildcatsFight** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:38 am

luteformayor2 wrote:
FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:
FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:These guys are worse defensively than us by a wide margin and we have dudes in here really worried about how we're going to guard them?
What's the conflict here? They're elite offensively, and bad at defense.
Arizona is just as elite offensively here with a bigger mismatch than ASU and not the gap defensively. Why are people worried over this game?
In what way is Arizona just as elite offensively? RPI has us #36 OFFQ to their #6 OFFQ. They beat us in pretty much every offensive stat.
Kenpom has us #5 and ASU #4 in AdjO. They also have us 71 spots higher in defensive efficiency against a SOS that is 60 spots more difficult then ASU's.

We are a much better team and I am pretty positive we will dominate them

That Kenpom ranking doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. ASU is better to significantly better in PPG, RPG, scoring efficiency, and floor %. I respect Kenpom's methodology, but I think it's important to recognize that based on what has actually happened so far this season, even if ASU had an easier schedule.

Main Event · Post by **Main Event** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:39 am

FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:
FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:These guys are worse defensively than us by a wide margin and we have dudes in here really worried about how we're going to guard them?
What's the conflict here? They're elite offensively, and bad at defense.
Arizona is just as elite offensively here with a bigger mismatch than ASU and not the gap defensively. Why are people worried over this game?
In what way is Arizona just as elite offensively? RPI has us #36 OFFQ to their #6 OFFQ. They beat us in pretty much every offensive stat.

And we are #60 DEFQ, let's not pretend that we are a defensive juggernaut. Not to mention the fact that they rebound better than we do. I don't think we lose, but it won't be a cakewalk like you all are making it out to be. They're undefeated for a reason.

One team is 4th in adjusted offense the other is 5th, we're 50th in adjusted D, their sitting at a cool 121st. We're not a defensive juggernaut, we just look like one compared to ASU. This team that is getting treated as Golden St light is barely even shooting better from behind the arc from the season than we are (.399 vs .392).

Every year people get enamored with a specific matchup and people forget that these dudes have to guard Arizona too, last year it was UCLA. Forget Ayton (who should get 30 off misses alone), if they don't sit in a zone for 40 minutes, who the hell on that team guards Zo?

FightWildcatsFight · Post by **FightWildcatsFight** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:42 am

Main Event wrote:
FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:
FightWildcatsFight wrote:
Main Event wrote:These guys are worse defensively than us by a wide margin and we have dudes in here really worried about how we're going to guard them?
What's the conflict here? They're elite offensively, and bad at defense.
Arizona is just as elite offensively here with a bigger mismatch than ASU and not the gap defensively. Why are people worried over this game?
In what way is Arizona just as elite offensively? RPI has us #36 OFFQ to their #6 OFFQ. They beat us in pretty much every offensive stat.

And we are #60 DEFQ, let's not pretend that we are a defensive juggernaut. Not to mention the fact that they rebound better than we do. I don't think we lose, but it won't be a cakewalk like you all are making it out to be. They're undefeated for a reason.
One team is 4th in adjusted offense the other is 5th, we're 50th in adjusted D, their sitting at a cool 121st. We're not a defensive juggernaut, we just look like one compared to ASU. This team that is getting treated as Golden St light is barely even shooting better from behind the arc from the season than we are (.399 vs .392).

Every year people get enamored with a specific matchup and people forget that these dudes have to guard Arizona too. Forget Ayton (who should get 30 off misses alone), if they don't sit in a zone for 40 minutes, who the hell on that team guards Zo?

All good points. There's a case to be made for both teams, I'm just not a fan of continually underestimating ASu because it makes their success that much harder to bare.

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:52 am

So where I see the issue coming down early is fouls...

IF PJC gets early fouls, we have to switch to Trier at Point...

PJC may pick up some ticky tack fouls in the beginning against Holder, OR Trier may get a few push off fouls...

They are going to try and get fouls on Ayton, I can guarantee it, Hurley knows they cannot beat us with Ayton in the line up...

Fouls will determine this games flow which will determine it's outcome.

Honestly "Dre" Ayton does not foul and after the Uconn game he will start slowly defensively, this is where we will need Ristic and Rawle to step up and make some blocks...at least in the first half...if Ayton plays the first half with 1 or less foul we win...if he gets 2 it really puts a throttle on our transition game, which will be essential if they are pressuring the ball.

Bordercat · Post by **Bordercat** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:51 pm

I'm buying what Main Event is selling.

I think ASU is overrated. Good, but not top 5 or 10 good. I think AZ is top 5/10 good.

Just have to prove it.

The Battle for Atlantis is not a true representation of AZ hoops.

Like 97 said the only clear matchup they have an advantage in is PG. I think we can hold it down.

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:17 pm

Bordercat wrote:I'm buying what Main Event is selling.

I think ASU is overrated. Good, but not top 5 or 10 good. I think AZ is top 5/10 good.

Just have to prove it.

The Battle for Atlantis is not a true representation of AZ hoops.

Like 97 said the only clear matchup they have an advantage in is PG. I think we can hold it down.

I agree here, and outside of Xavier and a soft KU who have they beat thats worth mentioning, KSU? They only won that one by 2 points...and both teams shot over 50% I say control the backboards and keep them under 45% and we win hands down...

Lets not forget they are not that deep they will try to keep it up-tempo because that style seems to favor them, but we actually play pretty well up-tempo...

TatetheGreat · Post by **TatetheGreat** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 2:24 pm

I favor KenPom over official polls and ESPN/CBS power rankings but if you've watched ASU play, you know they are very good and pass the eye test. I think it will be a close, back-and-forth game, but we edge them out in the last few minutes. I would take a split but hope we can win both games.

TatetheGreat · Post by **TatetheGreat** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:43 pm

Beating ASU while they are #3 will move us back into the top 10, probably just outside the top 5. Hopefully we keep improving because we have looked beatable on the road. UNLV took us to OT and Rawle's career game kept us alive against UNM. I could easily see us at #3 for our game in Tempe on February 15. We need all the kinks worked out by then.

DiehardDave37 · Post by **DiehardDave37** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:31 pm

CatFanOneMil wrote:If we get that sorry ass ref from last night we might have issues, the refs are the only thing I can see beyond guarding the three and stopping penetration...

I know Ristic fouls but Ayton generally does not...last nights game was pure bullshit on the ref end...

According to the last protocol I saw, those refs would not be from the home team's conference. At one time, refs were from the visiting team's conference. That may have been changed to neutral conference refs.

UALoco · Post by **UALoco** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:25 pm

Look at ticket prices...who was sayin' this was just another game?

enfuego · Post by **enfuego** » Sat Dec 23, 2017 8:43 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:Serious question: biggest game in the history of the rivalry? Granted, I’ve only followed AZ hoops since the mid 90s, but I can’t remember another time both teams were legit top 10 teams.

That said, I don’t think we’re winning by double digits. Need to get it to Ayton often and force them to foul. And obviously we need to get a freaking hand in their face when they start raining threes. If ASU gets lots of open looks, they could open up a big lead. Like our game at Eugene last year.

I do think we’ll win, but it’s gonna be very close.

According to Kenpom this is a #15 versus #20 match-up.

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