Official Bracketology Thread

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:27 am

YoDeFoe wrote:
PHXCATS wrote:
Beachcat97 wrote: I know. I know!

But the Pac is fighting for its postseason lives!

Short of winning the Pac tourney, or posting like a 16-2 mark in league play, why would any of us feel confident of hearing our name called on Selection Sunday? All it takes is one loss to WSU or Cal, and we're sort of done.
My God there are almost three full months until selection Sunday. Calm down with this sky is falling stuff
I mean, listen to NY... he's had it mapped out since day one. Given the relative weakness of the conference, we needed to win certain games in OOC and we failed to do so. Not a tournament team, baring a storming of the Pac-12. It is what it is.

This team had done enough OOC that if they go 12-6 and win one in Vegas they are in. You can LOOK Richardson that. Hell 11-7 may even get it done.

But the main point is that there is 3 months left of the season until Selection Sunday. To say you are out of it now is ridiculous.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:37 am

I think YDF and NY are closer to reality.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:39 am

Beachcat97 wrote:I think YDF and NY are closer to reality.

Oh yeah, what do you want to bet?

Post by **UAdevil** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:40 am

You're such a fucking weirdo Machina...

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:44 am

UAdevil wrote:You're such a fucking weirdo Machina...

I am willing to back up what I think and type. Whats the problem with that?

DrWildcat · Post by **DrWildcat** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:49 am

If you don't remember the selection committee basically told USC it was out after its mediocre OOC last year. They finished 12-6 in conference and made it to the Pac12 championship game. Overall, the conference is worse this year.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:52 am

DrWildcat wrote:If you don't remember the selection committee basically told USC it was out after its mediocre OOC last year. They finished 12-6 in conference and made it to the Pac12 championship game. Overall, the conference is worse this year.

I am well aware and still willing to make a bet on it

prh · Post by **prh** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:53 am

With what looks like a 1-bid league, apparently our win over a short handed Iowa State will be what gets us in. Despite a home drubbing by Baylor. Sure ok then

prh · Post by **prh** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:54 am

@beachcat you wanna make another ban bet? You'd win and do us all a favor

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:57 am

For context, USC went 12-6 in the Pac last season but beat nobody of note. They were swept by UCLA & lost their only match ups vs. Arizona & ASU. They lost to Oklahoma, A&M and SMU in OOC and defeated nobody of note. Nobody. USC's best wins were against a mediocre Oregon team. That's it. That's why this out of balance conference scheduling is misleading. On a normal year, they would've faced Arizona & ASU at home.

DrWildcat · Post by **DrWildcat** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:05 pm

zonagrad wrote:For context, USC went 12-6 in the Pac last season but beat nobody of note. They were swept by UCLA & lost their only match ups vs. Arizona & ASU. They lost to Oklahoma, A&M and SMU in OOC and defeated nobody of note. Nobody. USC's best wins were against a mediocre Oregon team. That's it. That's why this out of balance conference scheduling is misleading. On a normal year, they would've faced Arizona & ASU at home.

Very true but do we really have a win that will propel us into the tournament? Iowa St is a good win but I'm not sure it will be enough to pull a mediocre Pac12 team into the tournament. Next best win is UCONN who is currently 78th on KenPom.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:29 pm

No more bets for me

Here’s hoping our guys hit their stride soon and do better than expected in a weak AF Pac.

Bear down!

zonagrad · Post by **zonagrad** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:32 pm

DrWildcat wrote:
zonagrad wrote:For context, USC went 12-6 in the Pac last season but beat nobody of note. They were swept by UCLA & lost their only match ups vs. Arizona & ASU. They lost to Oklahoma, A&M and SMU in OOC and defeated nobody of note. Nobody. USC's best wins were against a mediocre Oregon team. That's it. That's why this out of balance conference scheduling is misleading. On a normal year, they would've faced Arizona & ASU at home.
Very true but do we really have a win that will propel us into the tournament? Iowa St is a good win but I'm not sure it will be enough to pull a mediocre Pac12 team into the tournament. Next best win is UCONN who is currently 78th on KenPom.

I think Arizona needs to be big Iowa State and UCONN fans the rest of the season.

MC1983 · Post by **MC1983** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:33 pm

Unlike years past beating ASwho twice this year will help get us in the tournament .

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:53 pm

Speaking of bets, I bet my signature on something and I can't remember what it was.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sat Dec 22, 2018 8:32 am

Hate to say this but, everyone game planning for assu might give us a little bit of an edge this year that we haven't had in the past.

I think we need to keep conference reg season losses to 4 to get in as an at large.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:16 pm

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:15 pm

Sweet, now beating the gerbils will mean something.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:32 pm

U.P. Zona Fan wrote:Hate to say this but, everyone game planning for assu might give us a little bit of an edge this year that we haven't had in the past.

I think we need to keep conference reg season losses to 4 to get in as an at large.

You are probably correct.........unfortunately I think that anyone who believes we can go 14-4 in conference is probably smoking some serious weed.

Preseason we were picked 4th behind UO/UCLA/UW. I believe that UO (assuming they get Bol back) will finish ahead of us, as will asu and UW.
That leaves us fighting UCLA and Colorado for the 4th spot. The Pac12 opener against Colorado might be the most important game of the entire PAC12 season for the UA.
Lose and we are probably staring at finishing below 4th place and playing a Wednesday game in Las Vegas in March.

At this point the only way I see the UA making the NCAA tournament is to somehow finish 4th in the PAC12, and then get smoking hot from 3 point range while simultaneously keeping Jeter out of foul trouble in Vegas in March...........for 3 straight games.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:08 am

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:18 am

Oregon has a lot of work left to earn that bid. Who have they beaten?

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:11 pm

Syracuse, Boise st. twice, and San Diego.
Lost to Texas southern and Baylor, Houston, and Iowa
They do have work to do.

MC1983 · Post by **MC1983** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:32 pm

Arizona should be in over Oregon if we stopped right now. Lunardi had Arizona in before are close call to UCDavis. We still won the game.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:53 pm

MC1983 wrote:Arizona should be in over Oregon if we stopped right now. Lunardi had Arizona in before are close call to UCDavis. We still won the game.

Arizona is in over Oregon per Joe yesterday

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:00 pm

The MAC has 4 teams with 2 or fewer losses. Buffalo and Toledo have one each, Kent st and CMU have 2 each. They might get more teams in the tourney tan we do.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 5:23 pm

Fwiw sagarin likes us better than the rest of the Pac 12

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:18 am

Rematch?
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:17 am

Irish27 wrote:Rematch?
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

I would LOVE to see Buffalo again. They’re good, but let’s see how they do when no one expects them to lose.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:30 pm

Still at #11 playing Ohio State now. asu dropped to the play-in game, http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Bear Down Vegas · Post by **Bear Down Vegas** » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:55 pm

Irish27 wrote:Still at #11 playing Ohio State now. asu dropped to the play-in game, http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

I'd dig that bracket. Nevada is tough but on the chance the team catches fire - we get either Duke or Kentucky to go to the F4? Sign me up.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:59 pm

I think by the end of the year the PAC will have 4 tourney quality teams. AZ, UDUB, ASSU and UCLA who by the way I think wins the conference tourney this year. No idea how many we get in but I think these four will look the part

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:38 pm

I think 2, many stars would have to align to get 3 I think.
32 auto bids,
20 to 25 one bid leagues
So basically the top 40 to 45 are in at large range.
We are 57 in the NET, Washington is the only team in the Pac higher than us at 44, ucla is in the 80s Asu is not far behind us. I don't see 3 unless two teams go 1 or 2 losses in the conf and someone else wins the tourney, and I think it has to be w

ash, us, or asu as the at larges.
And I don't think any 10 loss Pac12 team is getting an at large.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:40 am

Jerry Palm has us a #10 seed. This bracketology was done before Saturday's games.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:29 pm

Irish27 wrote:Jerry Palm has us a #10 seed. This bracketology was done before Saturday's games.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

Well, I doubt we're getting a bump from Cal.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:35 pm

Really hard to imagine the Pac getting 3 bids. AZ, UCLA, and UW...2 of those 3 are probable. I’d include ASU, but their bad losses have effectively cancelled out their good wins.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:47 pm

As of Friday bracket matrix had us and ASU both as 11 seeds and Washington is one of the first four out. At the end of the day, I see us and Washington getting in and maybe 1 of ASU/UCLA/whoever wins the PAC 12 tournament getting in.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:20 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
Irish27 wrote:Jerry Palm has us a #10 seed. This bracketology was done before Saturday's games.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank
Well, I doubt we're getting a bump from Cal.

Team rankings bumped us more for this win than for Stanford, which makes me think other bubble teams lost and decreased their probability.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... acketology" target="_blank
Feels like we moved more in kenpom also. Probably due to the magnitude of the beat down we gave to cal.
Also Palm has Assu as an 8 !?!?!?

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:47 pm

If ASU finishes lower than 3rd in the Pac, there's no way they're getting in. They'd have to win the Pac tourney.

I agree that UCLA has the best path at the moment. They don't have to go to AZ this year, and they've already gotten a road win at Eugene. They're toughest game remaining is @UW. Oregon State could beat UCLA today, too, so that would complicate things further.

If we can somehow win all of our remaining home games (which feels very doable) and only drop 2 or 3 on the road, we'd be right in the mix for a Pac title. If we win at Pauley, we're in the driver's seat.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:40 am

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

sirhamsalot · Post by **sirhamsalot** » Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:50 am

Irish27 wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

11 seed seems pretty low, but I'll take any seed if we're going dancing. I guess if we end up being seeded that low, I'd like to see a 12 vs. 5 match up of Zona vs. Buffalo.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:04 am

sirhamsalot wrote:
Irish27 wrote:http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology
11 seed seems pretty low, but I'll take any seed if we're going dancing. I guess if we end up being seeded that low, I'd like to see a 12 vs. 5 match up of Zona vs. Buffalo.

If we're in, I'm happy. I'm still paranoid that ESPN wants us on the outside.

Bigger deal is winning tonight. KEEP WINNING.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:05 pm

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology" target="_blank

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:46 am

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:50 am

Irish27 wrote:https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

1st one out. Woo hoo!

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:49 am

UAEebs86 wrote:
Irish27 wrote:https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

1st one out. Woo hoo!

Big problem with that one is bama and Baylor are in the first four out also. Both of those teams have better opportunities for good wins than we do. We need the butler's, ucf's, and Texas's of the world to crap the bed. Also we need to win 9 of the next 12 games. And then a couple more.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:26 pm

There's exactly one Pac team who can feel relatively safe at the moment: UW. And they're only a slip up or two away from being bubblicious.

The Pac reg season champ will only be looking good for the tourney if they finish with three or fewer losses in conference. 14-4 or worse in a godawful Pac isn't looking too solid.

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:15 pm

Beachcat97 wrote:There's exactly one Pac team who can feel relatively safe at the moment: UW. And they're only a slip up or two away from being bubblicious.

Yep and they haven't even hit the hardest part of their schedule so they are far from out of the woods.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Tue Jan 22, 2019 5:45 am

Washington on the rise, 36 in the NET, maybe by the time we play them they'll be a Q 1 win at home.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Tue Jan 29, 2019 8:31 pm

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/" target="_blank

SabinoDrifter · Post by **SabinoDrifter** » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:19 pm

Irish27 wrote:https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

Arizona is certainly not an NCAA Tournament team right now, but since they haven't been even close to the bubble in a long time, we forget how average the last four in / first four out really are.

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