2019-20 Minutes Projection

[YoDeFoe]

Here's a fun and stupid game we do every offseason: guess the minutes distribution. I'll post mine and y'all feel free to call them trash and post your own.

You can view my breakdown here

And you can create your own version here (just need a google account).

I love this game because there's about a billion things to get wrong so the only wrong answer is putting up the wrong number of minutes. Because I'm nice I made it so the sheet will warn you.

Figuring out the PF minute distribution is one heck of a puzzle - I think I had 58 minutes in there on my first go.

[YoDeFoe]

Something like this on the totals, though the back-up SF and back-up PF rotation is a big question mark. I sort of pussyfooted by just spreading the minutes equally among the competitors for those roles instead of picking a favorite.

Nico.......32
Josh.......30
Chase.....25
Max........23
Smith.....20
Zeke......18
Stone.....17
DD.........15
Ira.........15
Koloko.....5

[Spaceman Spiff]

Something like this on the totals, though the back-up SF and back-up PF rotation is a big question mark. I sort of pussyfooted by just spreading the minutes equally among the competitors for those roles instead of picking a favorite.

Nico.......32
Josh.......30
Chase.....25
Max........23
Smith.....20
Zeke......18
Stone.....17
DD.........15
Ira.........15
Koloko.....5

I'm starting by eliminating Koloko. That bumps Zeke to 20 and Ira to 18. Drop Hazzard to 20 and increase DD to 18.

Other that that, I'd agree. I think the clumps of Hazzard/Smith/DD and Zeke/Ira/Stone will be very matchup dependent and very dependent on how they're performing in that particular game.

[97cats]

i will go on record and say that if Ira Lee plays less than 15minutes a game for any other reason than injury or discipline than i will eat my shoe...and i have very cool shoes.

[Alieberman]

i will go on record and say that if Ira Lee plays less than 15minutes a game for any other reason than injury or discipline than i will eat my shoe...and i have very cool shoes.

I totally agree. I know the freshmen are all getting a lot of hype, but I really expect Ira to be a leader on and off the court with this team.

I expect a huge year from him.

[baycat93]

By Conference play:

Nico: 35 @ PG
Hazzard: 20 min (5PG/15SG)

DD: 20 min SG
JG: 30 min (5SG/25SF)
JS: 15 min SF

Ira: 20min (10PF/10C)
Zeke: 25min (15PF/10C)
SG: 15min PF

CJ: 20 min C
Koloko: 0 min

[goslingswagg]

i will go on record and say that if Ira Lee plays less than 15minutes a game for any other reason than injury or discipline than i will eat my shoe...and i have very cool shoes.

I would agree...I would think Koloko is fully out of the rotation, and Gettings and Smith likely receive less time, with more mins going to Zeke and Ira and DD.

[Longhorned]

i will go on record and say that if Ira Lee plays less than 15minutes a game for any other reason than injury or discipline than i will eat my shoe...and i have very cool shoes.

I totally agree. I know the freshmen are all getting a lot of hype, but I really expect Ira to be a leader on and off the court with this team.

I expect a huge year from him.

He's had two freshman seasons and he's ready for that sophomore jump.

[YoDeFoe]

i will go on record and say that if Ira Lee plays less than 15minutes a game for any other reason than injury or discipline than i will eat my shoe...and i have very cool shoes.

Love the vote of confidence. I've fairly well blocked out last season after attending the blow out loss at USC, so I don't have the warm and fuzzies for Ira's late season play. But it's important to note that Ira was probably the best player on the team in conference play. Despite being a lower usage player, he had the highest PER, highest ORtg, highest WS/40, and lowest DRtg among rotation players. The two numbers that jump out are his sky high TS% (63%) and his elite block rate (5.7%).

It's difficult to see how the minutes will shake out at the PF position without someone sliding into the SF position at times or someone who probably deserves minutes getting less than they would without the logjam.

[Spaceman Spiff]

i will go on record and say that if Ira Lee plays less than 15minutes a game for any other reason than injury or discipline than i will eat my shoe...and i have very cool shoes.

Love the vote of confidence. I've fairly well blocked out last season after attending the blow out loss at USC, so I don't have the warm and fuzzies for Ira's late season play. But it's important to note that Ira was probably the best player on the team in conference play. Despite being a lower usage player, he had the highest PER, highest ORtg, highest WS/40, and lowest DRtg among rotation players. The two numbers that jump out are his sky high TS% (63%) and his elite block rate (5.7%).

It's difficult to see how the minutes will shake out at the PF position without someone sliding into the SF position at times or someone who probably deserves minutes getting less than they would without the logjam.

Ira seems to have figured out who he is. He's a finisher, not a creator, and an energy guy. When he does that, he is quite good.

[ChooChooCat]

I'll eat both my shoes if Zeke gets less than 25 minutes per game.

[IndianaZonaFan]

Mine goes something like this:

Nico- 30
Green- 30
Jeter- 25
Zeke- 25
Doutrive- 23
Lee- 22
Hazard- 20
Smith- 17
Gettings- 8

I would like the record to show that I would play Stone more than Dylan, if one of himself, Ira, or Zeke could play the 3. We could scheme around it offensively, but I don’t see it on defense. That’s why the “heavy” minutes to Dylan (I hope he proves me wrong with his turnover machine, bad decision-making, can’t-make-a-god-damn-layup...candy ass))

[YoDeFoe]

Mine goes something like this:

Nico- 30
Green- 30
Jeter- 25
Zeke- 25
Doutrive- 23
Lee- 22
Hazard- 20
Smith- 17
Gettings- 8

I would like the record to show that I would play Stone more than Dylan, if one of himself, Ira, or Zeke could play the 3. We could scheme around it offensively, but I don’t see it on defense. That’s why the “heavy” minutes to Dylan (I hope he proves me wrong with his turnover machine, bad decision-making, can’t-make-a-god-damn-layup...candy ass))

It’s tough. I think Gettings has the offensive skill to play the three and Ira probably has the defensive skill to play minutes at the three but it seems unlikely that any of the PF candidates are viable two way SF candidates. Still, I’d like to see what a Ira / Stone / Zeke lineup could do across the front court. Just for fun.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Mine goes something like this:

Nico- 30
Green- 30
Jeter- 25
Zeke- 25
Doutrive- 23
Lee- 22
Hazard- 20
Smith- 17
Gettings- 8

I would like the record to show that I would play Stone more than Dylan, if one of himself, Ira, or Zeke could play the 3. We could scheme around it offensively, but I don’t see it on defense. That’s why the “heavy” minutes to Dylan (I hope he proves me wrong with his turnover machine, bad decision-making, can’t-make-a-god-damn-layup...candy ass))

It’s tough. I think Gettings has the offensive skill to play the three and Ira probably has the defensive skill to play minutes at the three but it seems unlikely that any of the PF candidates are viable two way SF candidates. Still, I’d like to see what a Ira / Stone / Zeke lineup could do across the front court. Just for fun.

Gettings could be a shooter enough for the 3, but I think it's very difficult to see him defending the 3. Ira's problem would be him at the 3 would kill spacing on offense unless he's really developed his J.

I'd like to see Jeter and Nnaji take 25 mpg and Lee and Stone get 15 each. Then, adjust up and down based on matchup and who's hot. That would be the ideal, don't know if we get it.

[goslingswagg]

Mine goes something like this:

Nico- 30
Green- 30
Jeter- 25
Zeke- 25
Doutrive- 23
Lee- 22
Hazard- 20
Smith- 17
Gettings- 8

I would like the record to show that I would play Stone more than Dylan, if one of himself, Ira, or Zeke could play the 3. We could scheme around it offensively, but I don’t see it on defense. That’s why the “heavy” minutes to Dylan (I hope he proves me wrong with his turnover machine, bad decision-making, can’t-make-a-god-damn-layup...candy ass))

It’s tough. I think Gettings has the offensive skill to play the three and Ira probably has the defensive skill to play minutes at the three but it seems unlikely that any of the PF candidates are viable two way SF candidates. Still, I’d like to see what a Ira / Stone / Zeke lineup could do across the front court. Just for fun.

It's unfortunate that all of our depth is at the 4/5, but I think using any of our big men at the SF spot is a recipe for disaster on both sides of the ball. I'm hoping Miller does not experiment with that, although with his fetish for size you never know.

[Longhorned]

I could see that experiment with a 30 point lead against a pre-conference weakling, where the lead drops to 10, and then Miller says to the press, "I can tell you one thing: You will never see that lineup again at the University of Arizona."

[Merkin]

Jeter is glass so that's where Gettings will get extra minutes as the players get shifted around due to injury.

Dude can run the court.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Jeter is glass so that's where Gettings will get extra minutes as the players get shifted around due to injury.

Dude can run the court.

Ehh, the mile isn't a great test of running the court. It's better for overall conditioning but isn't very sport specific.

Jeter had the freak back thing last year, and hopefully avoids weird stuff like that this year.

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Jeter is glass so that's where Gettings will get extra minutes as the players get shifted around due to injury.

Dude can run the court.

Ehh, the mile isn't a great test of running the court. It's better for overall conditioning but isn't very sport specific.

Jeter had the freak back thing last year, and hopefully avoids weird stuff like that this year.

You mean avoids things like tres tinkle's tookas?

[billk78]

I kind of feel bad that my initial reaction to this post was a sinking feeling as I saw Dylan Smith and 20 minutes a game. I totally forgot he was back, and in a way I felt better not remembering. I hope he makes me eat my words and I can relax when he's on the floor this season. Will it happen?

[Spaceman Spiff]

I kind of feel bad that my initial reaction to this post was a sinking feeling as I saw Dylan Smith and 20 minutes a game. I totally forgot he was back, and in a way I felt better not remembering. I hope he makes me eat my words and I can relax when he's on the floor this season. Will it happen?

IMO, his success depends on knowing and conforming to his role.

He has value as a defender, rebounder and catch and shoot guy. If he limits himself to those areas, he should give us solid minutes. Anything outside of that equals bad news.

[baycat93]

In a similar vein.. lineup options:
Starting Line-up
PG – Mannion
SG- Hazzard
SF – Green
PF – Zeke
C – Jeter
Thoughts: I think these are generally considered the likely starters based on skill, OFFvsDEF, seniority

First Substitution
PG – Mannion
SG – DD/Green
SF – Green/DD
PF – Lee
C – Zeke
Thoughts: should be a good rebounding group. A lot of length everywhere to offset Lee’s general lack of it.

Mannion-Less Lineup
PG – Hazzard
SG – Green
SF – Smith
PF – Gettings
C – Zeke/Jeter (matchup/foul/rest dependent)
Thoughts: Green and Smith offset Hazzard for defense in the backcourt and Green/Gettings offset hazzard playmaking and ball movement. Smith/Gettings Hazzard all space the floor and open up green to attack from the wing.
Second thought: A Green-less lineup does not seem very appetizing either.

[SunnyAZ]

I'm counting Baker, cause why not.

PG: Nico (30), Doutrive (10)
SG: Baker (26), Max (14)
SF: Josh (28), Doutrive (10), Dylan (2)
PF: Stone (18), Ira (12), Zeke (10)
C: Chase (26), Zeke (10), Koloko (4)

[azcat49]

I just don’t see how DSmith doesn’t get at least 18-20 minutes a game given Miller’s confidence in him. I also think Gettings gets about the same as I think he will bring more rebounding than expected. Besides he can score the Ball as well

[Alieberman]

Really interesting to see how Miller uses his players this year. This list doesn’t even have Baker on it

We are 11 deep with legitimate talent. Our bottom 3 rotation players are all better than I thkught

Gonna be crazy

[CalStateTempe]

We’re stacked.

(Cue azgreg hot girl post)

[azgreg]

[mrqsjhnsnsux]

There is a shoe is very real danger. Lee needs to get close to 27 minutes a game over the next four to average 15 going into the tournaments

[97cats]

i remember this statement and as I was looking at several box scores today knew I was in real danger.

fire up the bbq sauce