Let the KenPom watch begin

[Beachcat97]

After Sunday's games, we're 24 in AdjD.

LH, help me out. That number matters because...? Is it a strong indicator of postseason success historically?

[U.P. Zona Fan]

8th in the NET, crazy that the metric the NCAA came up with to seed teams has us at a 2 seed.

[Longhorned]

After Sunday's games, we're 24 in AdjD.

LH, help me out. That number matters because...? Is it a strong indicator of postseason success historically?

Basically:

at the end of the season Kenpom is a terrific indicator for seeding in the top sixteen seeds and overall final four contenders because of all the relevant data.

And specifically (if I have this right) Final Four and National Championship teams, other than UConn, tend to be top 20 in both AdjO and AdjD.

But honestly, I don't remember the particulars on any of the numbers, other than having that top 20 ranking for both offensive and defensive efficiency means you're right there and the sky's the limit. Of course, we also regularly see teams with such rankings losing tourney games to teams with rankings that are nowhere close to that.

[KaibabKat]

After Sunday's games, we're 24 in AdjD.

And specifically (if I have this right) Final Four and National Championship teams, other than UConn, tend to be top 20 in both AdjO and AdjD....

With few exceptions that is correct - AFTER the tournament games have been played. Final Four teams may be somewhat outside that range before the tournament starts.

[Beachcat97]

Thanks, guys. Always helpful having a few stats people on here.

BTFD!

[PHXCATS]

12 in offense, 24 in defense and 11 overall?

I thought we sucked

[Beachcat97]

12 in offense, 24 in defense and 11 overall?

I thought we sucked

You thought wrong?

[PHXCATS]

12 in offense, 24 in defense and 11 overall?

I thought we sucked

You thought wrong?

For fuck sake

[zonagrad]

Kenpom "luck factor" is interesting. No surprise Arizona is one of three top 10 Kenpom teams with a negative luck factor (.065) or 311th. Yikes. To what do you attribute that?

Stats can only tell you so much. Timing is everything. Arizona is shooting 73% FT this season. Oregon is at 69%. Yet when they met, Oregon made 15-17. Arizona 9-14. Dylan Smith missed a key front end, 1 and 1 that would've put us up six with 1:28 remaining.

To me, that's not necessarily luck but making plays when it absolutely matters -- like Jemarl Baker hitting a big three at UW to give Arizona the lead. Or getting a key rebound or loose ball. Sometimes luck does play a factor -- like the ref with an inadvertent whistle when Pritchard saved the ball right to Josh Green for a sure, game winning layup. But you see the point. Statistically, Arizona is right there in every metric and should statistically have another win or two.

FYI, Auburn is #2 in the nation with the Kenpom luck factor. So they've only dropped two games and won another OT thriller again tonight at Arkansas. Eventually though, things settle to the mean. Also, USC is #6 in the Kenpom luck factor. Hopefully that luck changes tomorrow.

[Chicat]

Currently at #13 overall.

AdO - 16
AdD - 27