Pac-12 South Scenarios

Good For You · Post by **Good For You** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 9:50 am

While there is still a chance....

Obviously we need to win out. Winning out assumes a victory over the ass-hats and securing the tie breaker with them. That leaves fucla and the spoiled children to contend with, both of which beat us.

The Ruins must lose as they own the tie breaker over the whole state of Arizona. They play usc and Stanford at home. Neither is a gimme for them so that could happen.

USC must lose as well. Both us and STD State would lose in a 3 way tiebreaker due to division losses.

So basically we need to win out, UCLA to beat USC, and then UCLA to lose to Stanford. Either that or USC to lose to Cal and then beat UCLA which I think is less likely.

That being said, Beat Washington!

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 9:55 am

Tall order going on the road and beating Utah and then beating a 10-1 ASSU team

qwertyus · Post by **qwertyus** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 10:50 am

Good For You wrote:While there is still a chance....

Obviously we need to win out. Winning out assumes a victory over the ass-hats and securing the tie breaker with them. That leaves fucla and the spoiled children to contend with, both of which beat us.

The Ruins must lose as they own the tie breaker over the whole state of Arizona. They play usc and Stanford at home. Neither is a gimme for them so that could happen.

USC must lose as well. Both us and STD State would lose in a 3 way tiebreaker due to division losses.

So basically we need to win out, UCLA to beat USC, and then UCLA to lose to Stanford. Either that or USC to lose to Cal and then beat UCLA which I think is less likely.

That being said, Beat Washington!

Why does USC need to lose? We lost to them, but they lost to ASU, and ASU can't go because we hold the tiebreaker over them (assuming we win out). Both Arizona and USC have lost to two South opponents, just like ASU. Like, what if ASU, UA, and USC finish with 2 losses each? Who goes then?

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:00 am

Team with the highest playoff ranking. Right now that is ASSU. if we win out not sure how anyone could vote them higher but who knows

UALoco · Post by **UALoco** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 am

http://pac-12.com/article/2014/11/06/pa ... xplanation

cats101 · Post by **cats101** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:12 am

qwertyus wrote:
Good For You wrote:While there is still a chance....

Obviously we need to win out. Winning out assumes a victory over the ass-hats and securing the tie breaker with them. That leaves fucla and the spoiled children to contend with, both of which beat us.

The Ruins must lose as they own the tie breaker over the whole state of Arizona. They play usc and Stanford at home. Neither is a gimme for them so that could happen.

USC must lose as well. Both us and STD State would lose in a 3 way tiebreaker due to division losses.

So basically we need to win out, UCLA to beat USC, and then UCLA to lose to Stanford. Either that or USC to lose to Cal and then beat UCLA which I think is less likely.

That being said, Beat Washington!
Why does USC need to lose? We lost to them, but they lost to ASU, and ASU can't go because we hold the tiebreaker over them (assuming we win out). Both Arizona and USC have lost to two South opponents, just like ASU. Like, what if ASU, UA, and USC finish with 2 losses each? Who goes then?

USC holds that tiebreaker too.

The odds of this all happening are slim to none. Should have beat freakin USC.

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:29 am

cats101 wrote:
The odds of this all happening are slim to none. Should have beat freakin USC.

Yep, UA is just not that lucky. Just another meh bowl coming up.

Beating ASU is all I care about rest of the season and ruining their chances. Just like the old days.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:40 am

Merkin wrote:
cats101 wrote:
The odds of this all happening are slim to none. Should have beat freakin USC.
Yep, UA is just not that lucky. Just another meh bowl coming up.

Beating ASU is all I care about rest of the season and ruining their chances. Just like the old days.

The Cats have had their luck this year. The Hail Mary pass comes to mind. They also could of easily lost to UTSA and Nevada, so if anyone said we would be 7-2 at this point before the year began, I would of been happy with that record.

Good For You · Post by **Good For You** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 12:33 pm

qwertyus wrote:
Good For You wrote:While there is still a chance....

Obviously we need to win out. Winning out assumes a victory over the ass-hats and securing the tie breaker with them. That leaves fucla and the spoiled children to contend with, both of which beat us.

The Ruins must lose as they own the tie breaker over the whole state of Arizona. They play usc and Stanford at home. Neither is a gimme for them so that could happen.

USC must lose as well. Both us and STD State would lose in a 3 way tiebreaker due to division losses.

So basically we need to win out, UCLA to beat USC, and then UCLA to lose to Stanford. Either that or USC to lose to Cal and then beat UCLA which I think is less likely.

That being said, Beat Washington!
Why does USC need to lose? We lost to them, but they lost to ASU, and ASU can't go because we hold the tiebreaker over them (assuming we win out). Both Arizona and USC have lost to two South opponents, just like ASU. Like, what if ASU, UA, and USC finish with 2 losses each? Who goes then?

My bad. I was thinking USC lost to Stanford.

Next tiebreaker would be record vs. next highest place team.

If that's UCLA then USC wins. If that's Utah, then asu and Arizona both beat Utah while USC lost. Does Arizona then get in due to head to head vs. asu, or do we go to the next tiebreaker? I don't know.

qwertyus · Post by **qwertyus** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 4:23 pm

"Next highest place team"? That's ASU though...? If we win out and UCLA loses again, that leaves us, USC, ASU left with 2 losses each. If we've beaten ASU, that's the highest placed team, right? That'd be the best win out of all of them, right? What am I not getting here?

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 4:56 pm

qwertyus wrote:"Next highest place team"? That's ASU though...? If we win out and UCLA loses again, that leaves us, USC, ASU left with 2 losses each. If we've beaten ASU, that's the highest placed team, right? That'd be the best win out of all of them, right? What am I not getting here?

If AZ, ASSU, and USC finish in a tie the tie breaker comes down to 1) head to head of the 3 teams, 2) Interdivisional record, then 3) head to head of next team in standings which would be either UCLA or UTAH.

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 5:06 pm

With a performance like last night's, the team has no chance of winning out anyway IMHO. Gotta get better every week, and can anybody say this team is?

Meanwhile, ASU blows out Notre Dame at home. What chances would you guys give us of winning out after yesterday?

Gladiator Cat · Post by **Gladiator Cat** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 5:37 pm

With losses to two of our primary South competitors in UCLA and USC already in the books. The odds are so low its not likely worth worrying about.

dc4azcats · Post by **dc4azcats** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 6:33 pm

catgrad97 wrote:With a performance like last night's, the team has no chance of winning out anyway IMHO. Gotta get better every week, and can anybody say this team is?

Meanwhile, ASU blows out Notre Dame at home. What chances would you guys give us of winning out after yesterday?

Let me know when they start awarding style points for wins and I will start to give a crap about how we win. Also, not sure how you can measure how we play one game into how we will play the next game? UW and Colorado are two completely different teams.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 7:00 pm

Gladiator Cat wrote:With losses to two of our primary South competitors in UCLA and USC already in the books. The odds are so low its not likely worth worrying about.

This. At this point the season is just about finding a way to finish with 9-10 wins (post bowl) and beating Asu. I'll be happy if we finish 2-2 with wins over Asu and either uw or the bowl.

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 8:06 pm

dc4azcats wrote:Let me know when they start awarding style points for wins and I will start to give a crap about how we win.

dc, I know you're close to the program and all, but that response didn't answer either of my questions, and you know that. I expect 9-3 with a 2-1 finish, but if you told me that you didn't give a crap about who those wins and losses were over, you'd be lying.

Besides, college football rankings are about as close to style points as a popular sport gets. And right now, ASU's No. 7 and rising.

You're going to sit here and tell me this team is playing at, or even improving to, that level right now? Hell, you don't have to if you can't, but can anyone tell me that?

dc4azcats wrote:Also, not sure how you can measure how we play one game into how we will play the next game? UW and Colorado are two completely different teams.

You can measure this program against ASU, I hope. You can measure the quality of Arizona's play from week to week--not the Cats' opponent, or injuries, or off nights. That's what I'd like to think I'm doing here, and what I see tells me ASU's trajectory is clearly higher than Arizona's right now.

I will always support my Cats like I love my children, but let's cut the crap. Arizona's not winning the South, ASU may have an off night to the Cats, lose, and still finish ahead of them in the standings.

And hey, if that's how it turns out with a 9-3 finish, fine. Next year is the big year, and I'm looking forward to it.

But let's not hold out any false hopes on Anu Solomon's arm suddenly becoming automatic and our corners shutting down the middle of the field for us to win out this season while all three teams ahead of us just lay down, OK? It ain't gonna happen.

AZarchery · Post by **AZarchery** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 8:13 pm

I'm fine with beating ASSU and seeing fUCLA win the south.

cats101 · Post by **cats101** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 8:22 pm

Gladiator Cat wrote:With losses to two of our primary South competitors in UCLA and USC already in the books. The odds are so low its not likely worth worrying about.

Yeap. Would almost be better to lose to CU and beat USC or UCLA. There aren't very many realistic scenarios that work in Az favor at this point. Just stop Asu from getting there and I'm ok with that.

Daryl Zero · Post by **Daryl Zero** » Sun Nov 09, 2014 8:34 pm

catgrad97 wrote:With a performance like last night's, the team has no chance of winning out anyway IMHO. Gotta get better every week, and can anybody say this team is?

Meanwhile, ASU blows out Notre Dame at home. What chances would you guys give us of winning out after yesterday?

The defense is playing great right now. Its the offense which is bogging down. We know the offense can unleash hell though.

qwertyus · Post by **qwertyus** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:02 am

azgreg wrote:
qwertyus wrote:"Next highest place team"? That's ASU though...? If we win out and UCLA loses again, that leaves us, USC, ASU left with 2 losses each. If we've beaten ASU, that's the highest placed team, right? That'd be the best win out of all of them, right? What am I not getting here?
If AZ, ASSU, and USC finish in a tie the tie breaker comes down to 1) head to head of the 3 teams, 2) Interdivisional record, then 3) head to head of next team in standings which would be either UCLA or UTAH.

Are we sure the head to head of "next team in standings" is UCLA or Utah, and not Oregon? They're in the PAC, and they're the highest-ranked not counting the 3 South teams in a tiebreaker...

MrBug708 · Post by **MrBug708** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:30 am

It's pac 12 South, not Oregon

Gladiator Cat · Post by **Gladiator Cat** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:40 am

Not in a million years did I think OSU would beat ASSU. I'm simply stunned.

At this point anything could happen to end the season and the PAC South.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:47 am

to win the division:

Ucla needs: beat Stanford and usc
Usc needs: beat ucla and a loss by Asu to wsu or Arizona
Arizona needs: beat Utah and Asu, have Stanford beat ucla and ucla beat usc
Asu needs: beat wsu and Arizona, have usc beat ucla

MrBug708 · Post by **MrBug708** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:51 am

Gladiator Cat wrote:Not in a million years did I think OSU would beat ASSU. I'm simply stunned.

At this point anything could happen to end the season and the PAC South.

Riley was missing his key win this year. It made sense I suppose

Gladiator Cat · Post by **Gladiator Cat** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:52 am

I am beyond happy it happened to the asshats in Tempe.

I still think the UofA has the hardest road to the South title.

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:53 am

That's where I always stop Cat fans before they get too excited. Even if Arizona wins out, we're dependent on UCLA to help us out with a win. Bruins have done Arizona zero favors in season-ending football games.

scumdevils86 · Post by **scumdevils86** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:55 am

Yup we have the most work to do and the hardest schedule left. Even winning out doesn't necessarily mean anything.

I wouldn't be shocked whatsoever if we went 0-2 the next 2 weeks

Gladiator Cat · Post by **Gladiator Cat** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:56 am

catgrad97 wrote:That's where I always stop Cat fans before they get too excited. Even if Arizona wins out, we're dependent on UCLA to help us out with a win. Bruins have done Arizona zero favors in season-ending football games.

97,

I have been saying that the Cats won't get the help they need. In the end it just won't work out.

But, I never in my life thought ASSu would lose to the Beavers.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:01 am

Gladiator Cat wrote:I am beyond happy it happened to the asshats in Tempe.

I still think the UofA has the hardest road to the South title.

We need the most help since we're currently winless against the 4 other teams in south contention. Right now in terms of chances to win the division considering the help they need and remaining schedules it probably goes ucla, asu, usc, Arizona, Utah.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:07 am

ASUHATER! wrote:
Gladiator Cat wrote:I am beyond happy it happened to the asshats in Tempe.

I still think the UofA has the hardest road to the South title.
We need the most help since we're currently winless against the 4 other teams in south contention. Right now in terms of chances to win the division considering the help they need and remaining schedules it probably goes ucla, asu, usc, Arizona, Utah.

U$C has only one game left. That seems like the easiest path, just don't control their own destiny. Hell of a lot easier to win one game than two this year.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:13 am

UAEebs86 wrote:
ASUHATER! wrote:
Gladiator Cat wrote:I am beyond happy it happened to the asshats in Tempe.

I still think the UofA has the hardest road to the South title.
We need the most help since we're currently winless against the 4 other teams in south contention. Right now in terms of chances to win the division considering the help they need and remaining schedules it probably goes ucla, asu, usc, Arizona, Utah.

U$C has only one game left. That seems like the easiest path, just don't control their own destiny. Hell of a lot easier to win one game than two this year.

They need more than just to win the one game though. They need to win that and pray Asu loses a game. If they beat ucla, they still lose the division if asu wins out.

ASUHATER! · Post by **ASUHATER!** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:22 am

A lot will actually be decided next Saturday in the ucla usc game. A usc win over ucla would eliminate Arizona, ucla and Utah from the race. It would make it so then Asu would control everything. Technically if usc beat ucla and asu lost to wsu, usc would win the division next week.

EVCat · Post by **EVCat** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:46 am

We, as Cats fans, have every right to get excited about our chances to win the South.

It might not happen. Probably not. But Damn......This has been high powered craziness and fun all year,

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 6:51 am

scumdevils86 wrote:Even winning out doesn't necessarily mean anything.

Which is why us fans shouldn't get all excited about winning the pac12 south.

we don't control our own destiny.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:27 am

PieceOfMeat wrote:
scumdevils86 wrote:Even winning out doesn't necessarily mean anything.
Which is why us fans shouldn't get all excited about winning the pac12 south.

we don't control our own destiny.

True but when was the last time we were truly playing a meaningful game in late November? It's ok to be excited. We deserve to be

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:39 am

Alieberman wrote:
PieceOfMeat wrote:
scumdevils86 wrote:Even winning out doesn't necessarily mean anything.
Which is why us fans shouldn't get all excited about winning the pac12 south.

we don't control our own destiny.
True but when was the last time we were truly playing a meaningful game in late November? It's ok to be excited. We deserve to be

I'm all for being excited at the possibility of a 10 win season (regardless of arguments over how likely that is).

Just the pac12 south title seems kind of silly to be excited about, since we need dominoes to fall and we don't control our path to it.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:10 am

Gladiator Cat wrote:I am beyond happy it happened to the asshats in Tempe.

I still think the UofA has the hardest road to the South title.

Woke up to this and it made my day!

Took longer then usual, but so happy to see them lose.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:13 am

Go Bruins!

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:38 am

azcat49 wrote:Tall order going on the road and beating Utah and then beating a 10-1 ASSU team

Nope the have 2 losses and I wouldn't rule out WAZZU beating them!

Good For You · Post by **Good For You** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:55 am

So of course everything is falling in line for UCLA. Sofa King sick of UCLA. Didn't they win the south at 6-6 a few years back?

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:58 am

Good For You wrote:So of course everything is falling in line for UCLA. Sofa King sick of UCLA. Didn't they win the south at 6-6 a few years back?

Only because U$C was on probation.

Good For You · Post by **Good For You** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:18 am

12 Scenarios. Only 1 favors Arizona.

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:27 am

I thought when we started this board we said there will be no math?

Just win baby.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:28 am

I assume the one that says "TIE" falls all the way down to the CFP rankings tiebreaker so it is indeterminate at this time?

Good For You · Post by **Good For You** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:40 am

UAEebs86 wrote:I assume the one that says "TIE" falls all the way down to the CFP rankings tiebreaker so it is indeterminate at this time?

Yeah but it's on the Utah beats Arizona line so we don't factor in it. Edit....At least that's how I read it.

azpenguin · Post by **azpenguin** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:03 pm

All they can do is beat who's in front of them. If they get some help then so be it.

dc4azcats · Post by **dc4azcats** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 12:51 pm

Gladiator Cat wrote:Not in a million years did I think OSU would beat ASSU. I'm simply stunned.

At this point anything could happen to end the season and the PAC South.

I'm not.

azpenguin · Post by **azpenguin** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 1:14 pm

dc4azcats wrote:
Gladiator Cat wrote:Not in a million years did I think OSU would beat ASSU. I'm simply stunned.

At this point anything could happen to end the season and the PAC South.
I'm not.

Dude, it's not like you've been calling ASU's record suspect at all this year... oh wait

Lofty · Post by **Lofty** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 2:51 pm

It's simple for us. We must win last two, UCLA must beat USC, but lose to Stanford. Period.

3goggles · Post by **3goggles** » Sun Nov 16, 2014 4:18 pm

Possible not probable!

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