Official Bracketology Thread

gronk4heisman · Post by **gronk4heisman** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm

I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm

gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.

So you'd prefer to play far from home against teams that look weaker on paper.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm

gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.

Yup. It’s always about the draw and less about region or seed.

gronk4heisman · Post by **gronk4heisman** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:22 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
So you'd prefer to play far from home against teams that look weaker on paper.

Absolutely, I would rather play a #2 like Providence as a one seed in the east in Philly over playing Gonzaga as a 2 seed in the west in San Fran.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:26 pm

gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:22 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
So you'd prefer to play far from home against teams that look weaker on paper.
Absolutely, I would rather play a #2 like Providence as a one seed in the east in Philly over playing Gonzaga as a 2 seed in the west in San Fran.

Ain't no way Gonzaga will be a 2, unless something very surprising happens. But I hear you. The 2 seed pool is looking more like this: Purdue, Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, the loser of next week's AZ/UCLA game, Nova, maybe Houston. Providence is looking more like a 4 or 5 at the moment.

gronk4heisman · Post by **gronk4heisman** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:44 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:26 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:22 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
So you'd prefer to play far from home against teams that look weaker on paper.
Absolutely, I would rather play a #2 like Providence as a one seed in the east in Philly over playing Gonzaga as a 2 seed in the west in San Fran.
Ain't no way Gonzaga will be a 2, unless something very surprising happens. But I hear you. The 2 seed pool is looking more like this: Purdue, Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, the loser of next week's AZ/UCLA game, Nova, maybe Houston. Providence is looking more like a 4 or 5 at the moment.

I was saying I would rather be a 1 in the east then a 2 in the West avoiding Gonzaga in the West final if it came down to that.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:59 pm

there is an overriding advantage statistically to reaching the final four as a one seed - always take the #1 seed.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:00 pm

97cats wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:59 pm there is an overriding advantage statistically to reaching the final four as a one seed - always take the #1 seed.

Didn't know that. Noted.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:06 pm

historically

40.7% chance to make the final four as a #1 seed
20.7% chance to make the final four as a #2 seed
12.1% chance to make the final four as a #3 seed
9.3% chance to make the final four as a #4 seed
5% chance to make the final four as a #5 seed
2.1% chance to make the final four as a #6 seed
2.1% chance to make the final four as a #7 seed
3.6% chance to make the final four as a #8 seed
0.7% chance to make the final four as a #9 seed
0.7% chance to make the final four as a #10 seed
2.9% chance to make the final four as a #11 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #12 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #13 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #14 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #15 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #16 seed

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:16 pm

97cats wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 3:06 pm historically

40.7% chance to make the final four as a #1 seed
20.7% chance to make the final four as a #2 seed
12.1% chance to make the final four as a #3 seed
9.3% chance to make the final four as a #4 seed
5% chance to make the final four as a #5 seed
2.1% chance to make the final four as a #6 seed
2.1% chance to make the final four as a #7 seed
3.6% chance to make the final four as a #8 seed
0.7% chance to make the final four as a #9 seed
0.7% chance to make the final four as a #10 seed
2.9% chance to make the final four as a #11 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #12 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #13 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #14 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #15 seed
0.0% chance to make the final four as a #16 seed

If you're below a 5 seed.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:38 pm

8 and 11 higher than 6 and 7.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:11 pm

Getting freaking excited for March. I’ll say that. Regardless of what happens the rest of the way in conference, we have BIG potential in this year’s tourney. Could Tommy Boy get us back to the FF in year one? What a storyline.

Andre Iguodunkya · Post by **Andre Iguodunkya** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 7:48 pm

So nice you gotta say it twice

dovecanyoncat · Post by **dovecanyoncat** » Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:03 pm

Everyone from Walla Walla talks like that.

g32knights · Post by **g32knights** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:11 am

I really hope the Cats get a #1 seed with Wisconsin as the #2. There's no way the Cats lose to Wisconsin in the Elite 8!

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:52 am

Seth Davis on CBS just now admitted AZ is a #1 seed right now… I almost fainted

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:43 am

Seth actually responded to me... and then he suddenly can't remember constantly under-ranking AZ

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 11:58 am

Get him Ari. Didn’t he have us like 15 when we were in everyone’s top 8 at one time?

YoDeFoe · Post by **YoDeFoe** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:56 pm

g32knights wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:11 am I really hope the Cats get a #1 seed with Wisconsin as the #2. There's no way the Cats lose to Wisconsin in the Elite 8!

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 8:18 pm

g32knights wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:11 am I really hope the Cats get a #1 seed with Wisconsin as the #2. There's no way the Cats lose to Wisconsin in the Elite 8!

Curb your tongue, knave!

AZCatGirl · Post by **AZCatGirl** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 9:19 pm

g32knights wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:11 am I really hope the Cats get a #1 seed with Wisconsin as the #2. There's no way the Cats lose to Wisconsin in the Elite 8!

Too soon.

scumdevils86 · Post by **scumdevils86** » Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:06 pm

g32knights wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 7:11 am I really hope the Cats get a #1 seed with Wisconsin as the #2. There's no way the Cats lose to Wisconsin in the Elite 8!

Sir.

g32knights · Post by **g32knights** » Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:47 am

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... cketology/

Well, Team Rankings now has us as the overall #1. A win tonight goes a long way in making that happen.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:08 pm

I want no part of Texas Tech on the same side of bracket.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:10 pm

g32knights wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:47 am https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tourn ... cketology/

Well, Team Rankings now has us as the overall #1. A win tonight goes a long way in making that happen.

Absolutely, but even if it doesn't happen, still a big chance to be #1 seed. We get UCLA, USC, and Oregon at our place. Win those three, and we're a #1, regardless of what happens tonight.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:13 pm

Olsondogg wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
Yup. It’s always about the draw and less about region or seed.

When UCLA went to three straight final fours they never left California in two of them and the third one was Ca. and then had a game in PHX. The west region has not been kind to us especially Anaheim but like the fact that our biological clocks are the same. Dont forget if you travel East you make be playing a game at 8-9 Tucson time in the early rounds.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:14 pm

TheCat wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:13 pm
Olsondogg wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:16 pm
gronk4heisman wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 2:14 pm I disagree and think the region we are in is much less important than the draw we get.
Yup. It’s always about the draw and less about region or seed.
When UCLA went to three straight final fours they never left California in two of them and the third one was Ca. and then had a game in PHX. The west region has not been kind to us especially Anaheim but like the fact that our biological clocks are the same. Dont forget if you travel East you make be playing a game at 8-9 Tucson time in the early rounds.

Understood but it matters who else is in your region and where they are from.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:46 am

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:06 am

If we beat ucla next week, still on track for a #1. Lose that one, and I think a 2 becomes our new ceiling.

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:40 am

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:06 am If we beat ucla next week, still on track for a #1. Lose that one, and I think a 2 becomes our new ceiling.

Can't look at it in a vacuum. Depends what others on the #1 seed line do.

Lots of Basketball still to play...

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 28, 2022 2:45 pm

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:40 am
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 9:06 am If we beat ucla next week, still on track for a #1. Lose that one, and I think a 2 becomes our new ceiling.
Can't look at it in a vacuum. Depends what others on the #1 seed line do.

Lots of Basketball still to play...

Of course. Just meant if we put up two losses against the 1st place team in our own league, our argument for a #1 seed gets much weaker. We're currently hanging our hats on a road win vs. Illinois. It's a good win, for sure, but I think we'll need to show the committee something more to actually get a #1. USC is sinking fast, Oregon is up and down...UCLA is increasingly our only chance for a quality win.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:59 pm

So Kansas is projected as a number 1 seed. They have 2 loses. One to Dayton and one to Texas Tech. They also have 3 three point wins in their last three games 2 against unranked teams. Please tell me how their loses are better than our losses to Tenn and UCLA on the road. Also tell me why our killing of unranked teams is not better than their 3 point wins? I just hope the committee isn't as gullible as that. We will see. I also think we have a better case then Baylor and I think UCLA has a better one too.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:08 pm

Good points, TC.

All of them lead me to one conclusion: our game next Thursday will have larger implications for seeding.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:27 pm

My point isn't we deserve a one seed but I certainly think some of the teams on the one line are suspect. Lots of basketball left.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:44 pm

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:50 pm

Irish27 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:44 pm https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

I think the only way we end up a 4 seed (or lower) is by losing Thursday, plus two more reg season losses.

If we win on Thursday, we're very much on track for a 2 or 3 seed, with a 1 still possible.

I would say the formula for at least a 2 seed is, win Thursday + only one more reg season loss + Pac tourney title game berth

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:30 pm

Irish27 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:44 pm https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:39 pm

97cats wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:30 pm
Irish27 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:44 pm https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

This dude clearly expects us to lose this week.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:37 am

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

Falling to a 3 seed in this projection probably has more to do with other teams winning big games and us kind of idling. Struggling to put ASU away (at McKale no less) this past weekend may've weakened our seed position, however slightly. Our NET ranking has fallen a little too.

A loss on Thursday means a #1 seed is out of the question. A win keeps us in the mix for a 1 or 2.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:18 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:37 am https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

Falling to a 3 seed in this projection probably has more to do with other teams winning big games and us kind of idling. Struggling to put ASU away (at McKale no less) this past weekend may've weakened our seed position, however slightly. Our NET ranking has fallen a little too.

A loss on Thursday means a #1 seed is out of the question. A win keeps us in the mix for a 1 or 2.

Quit obsessing over this. We are like one or two games past the midpoint of the season. Just relax. If anyone proved seating doesn't matter it was the PAC-12 last year.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:24 pm

TheCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:18 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:37 am https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

Falling to a 3 seed in this projection probably has more to do with other teams winning big games and us kind of idling. Struggling to put ASU away (at McKale no less) this past weekend may've weakened our seed position, however slightly. Our NET ranking has fallen a little too.

A loss on Thursday means a #1 seed is out of the question. A win keeps us in the mix for a 1 or 2.
Quit obsessing over this. We are like one or two games past the midpoint of the season. Just relax. If anyone proved seating doesn't matter it was the PAC-12 last year.

Oh I'm just continuing to respond to 97's point upthread about higher seeding being correlated with deeper tourney runs.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:35 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:24 pm
TheCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:18 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:37 am https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

Falling to a 3 seed in this projection probably has more to do with other teams winning big games and us kind of idling. Struggling to put ASU away (at McKale no less) this past weekend may've weakened our seed position, however slightly. Our NET ranking has fallen a little too.

A loss on Thursday means a #1 seed is out of the question. A win keeps us in the mix for a 1 or 2.
Quit obsessing over this. We are like one or two games past the midpoint of the season. Just relax. If anyone proved seating doesn't matter it was the PAC-12 last year.
Oh I'm just continuing to respond to 97's point upthread about higher seeding being correlated with deeper tourney runs.

It's fair, but there's a certain unknown. I don't think 3 losses takes us out of a 1 seed discussion, if only because you never know what other teams will do.

Auburn and Gonzaga are tough to see being knocked out of the 1 line because Auburn doesn't play UK again, but beyond that it's sort of a lot of unknowns. Auburn is the only 1 loss team in the top 25, so it's not crazy to think a 3 loss Arizona team (potentially with all 3 losses being top 25/10 teams) could edge out competition with 3 or 4 losses.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:50 pm

Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:35 pm it's not crazy to think a 3 loss Arizona team (potentially with all 3 losses being top 25/10 teams) could edge out competition with 3 or 4 losses.

Only when the team we're trying to edge out is ucla.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:51 am

Up to #2.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Fri Feb 04, 2022 10:28 am

In that scenario we would probably need to beat Gonzaga to go to the FF.
Oh, and we could meet up with UCLA in the NC game.

Interesting conjecture.

Irish27 · Post by **Irish27** » Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:54 pm

CBS now has the Cats #2 also.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:06 pm

Your friend:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:26 pm

I'm having a hard time seeing how the Pac reg season champ wouldn't be a 1.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:46 pm

Olsondogg wrote: ↑Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:06 pm Your friend:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

This just shows you what a joke these polls are. They have Kansas as the top #2 seed and Kentucky who beat them head to head by a ton the 4th number 2 seed? Wisc has a 3 seed but the team that took them to the woodshed (Illinois) as a 5 seed? I am predicting that Baylor will not be a 1 seed come selection Sunday.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:47 pm

Palm has furd as a play in along with Oregon??????

That is not happening!

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