The 2021-2022 Season Thread

[Alieberman]

No game threads up mens or womens… I don’t want the responsibility… somebody step up!

[TheCatInTheHat]

I think one of the companies my dad worked for sold that crappy floor covering.

So now I know who to blame! It was popular for awhile, as it was cheaper and easier maintenance (none) than a wooden floor. UofA had a tan colored version originally in McKale. But talk about bad for knees, and just about everything else. Walton had to play on it in the triple overtime NCAA regional against Dayton. (I'm about five rows up behind one of the baskets.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJg8ascePUw

So then they "borrowed" the portable wooden floor from the TCC for a year to put over it (which looked pretty stupid) until they could get their own. They used to let students use the weight room in McKale, and also shoot hoops there when the teams weren't using it. It was a big deal and really cool if you could play in a pick-up game on the main wooden court. I got to do that a couple of times. When Lute came, he was adamant that Dempsey have the wood with the supporting flex framework installed (for knees, joints, and recruiting) and also having the lower bowl seats motorized so they could be retracted.

[Fishclamps]

No game thread for today?

[Alieberman]

No game thread for today?

Fuck it... I just put up Mens and Women's game threads

[Beachcat97]

If our bigs play like that on Tuesday, I love our chances.

[Alieberman]

On to UCLA... Let's kick their fucking ass!

[Beachcat97]

On to UCLA... Let's kick their fucking ass!

Probably our best chance of winning at Pauley for a while.

[TheCat]

We got a look at the twin towers and also 5 guard offense. We are going to be a tough out in the tourney because of how different we can play. Hope to continue to see Bal and Nowell get minutes and confidence. We just got a glimpse of what we look like in a decent turnover game.

[Beachcat97]

We got a look at the twin towers and also 5 guard offense. We are going to be a tough out in the tourney because of how different we can play. Hope to continue to see Bal and Nowell get minutes and confidence. We just got a glimpse of what we look like in a decent turnover game.

Yeah. I just don't see many teams that can hang with our depth, explosive offense and pressure D.

Not sure how the Pac race pans out, but I love our prospects for March. Really need to get Tubelis healthy. Hope they rest him on Tuesday.

[YoDeFoe]

Nice to see the team take care of business on these two potential trap games. Up to #2 in KenPom despite playing with fouls and without Tubelis.

[97cats]

kenpom #2

adjO = 8
adjD = 8

magic numbers

[Beachcat97]

kenpom #2

adjO = 8
adjD = 8

magic numbers

Is there some kind of historical figure about teams ranked in the top 10 in these two categories? I get that it's incredibly rare to be this good in both but am wondering if it correlates with tourney performance.

[97cats]

yes

[MrBug708]

kenpom #2

adjO = 8
adjD = 8

magic numbers

Is there some kind of historical figure about teams ranked in the top 10 in these two categories? I get that it's incredibly rare to be this good in both but am wondering if it correlates with tourney performance.

Here you go love, some nice reading!

https://www.vuhoops.com/villanova-baske ... -champions
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... ournament/
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... ere-recent
https://kenpom.com/blog/d-i-universe/
https://www.on3.com/teams/kentucky-wild ... rends/amp/

[97cats]

Kentucky 2011/12 - adjO(8) adjD(2)
Louisville 2012/13 - adjO(21) adjD(1)
UCONN 2013/14 - adjO(53) adjD(39)
Duke 2014/15 - adjO(1) adjD(16)
Villanova in 2015/16 - adjO(2) adjD(10)
North Carolina 2016/17 - adjO(9) adjD(10)
Villanova 2017/18 - adjO(2) adjD(25)
Virginia 2018/19 - adjO(8) adjD(5)
Baylor 2020/21 - adjO(3) adjD(9)

[Beachcat97]

Kentucky 2011/12 - adjO(8) adjD(2)
Louisville 2012/13 - adjO(21) adjD(1)
UCONN 2013/14 - adjO(53) adjD(39)
Duke 2014/15 - adjO(1) adjD(16)
Villanova in 2015/16 - adjO(2) adjD(10)
North Carolina 2016/17 - adjO(9) adjD(10)
Villanova 2017/18 - adjO(2) adjD(25)
Virginia 2018/19 - adjO(8) adjD(5)
Baylor 2020/21 - adjO(3) adjD(9)

Craziness. Gives an objective indication of this team's (glowing) prospects.

Does Miller get partial credit if we get to the FF this year?

[RondaeShimmy]

Generally the rule is you have to be top 20 in both adjusted defense and offense to have a chance to become champion, as it correlates with past champions (UConn in 2014 being the lone outlier for every CBB statistic).

But a thing that's hardly mentioned is that you can be outside of that top 20 entering the tournament and climb a lot during the tournament, especially during a championship run. There's been champions that have been outside of the top 20 in one of the two metrics (usually defense), but ended up in the top 20 at the end of the season.

Here's some past teams that were top 10 in both at the end that weren't champions

2010:
Kansas - adjo (2) adjd (8) = lose 2nd Rd to N Iowa
2011:
duke - adjo (5) adjd (9) = lose to Arizona s16
Kansas - adjo (6) adjd (6) = lose to vcu e8
2012:
Ohio st - adjo (6) adjd (4) = lose to Kansas f4
2013:
Florida: adjo (9) adjd (3) = lose to Michigan e8
2014:
Louisville - adjo (7) adjd (5) = lose to Kentucky s16
2015:
Kentucky - adjo (6) adjd (1) = lose to Wisconsin f4
Arizona - adjo (7) adjd (3) = lose to Wisconsin e8 *Wisconsin was adjo (1) and adj (35) offense>defense
2016:
Virginia - adjo (8) adjd (7) = lose to Syracuse e8
Kansas - adjo (10) adjd (3) = lose to Nova e8
2017:
None - both nova and unc had #11 and #12 in the metrics, so close but not top 10
2018:
Duke - adjo (3) adjd (9) = lose to Kansas e8
2019:
Michigan St - adjo (5) adjd (9) = lose to TTech f4
2021:
Michigan - adjo (9) adjd (4) = lose to ucla e8
Gonzaga had a adjusted defense of 11, just outside

There's quite a bit of losing to higher seeds but also some deep tournament runs

[97cats]

thats a very good post - and yes it is true that the metric can change positively for the team that wins six in a row.

it is fun to look at the level of play in terms of on the court performance and how its measured, and at this point in the season its interesting to see Arizona performing at a championship level according to the matrix being discussed.

will they sustain it? i dont know, however it provides a nice detailed snapshot for me as to where they are as a team toward the end of January.

[KaibabKat]

Median Values for National Champion Teams since 1985 (2003 for Pomeroy data}:
These are all Post Season numbers - after the tournament has been played.
Only 15 of 36 won their post season conference tournaments.

33 wins
5 losses
3 Preseason AP ranking
3 Final AP ranking
3 RPI
1 seed
2 Sagarin ranking
12 Sagarin SOS (11 Pomeroy SOS)
1 Pomeroy ranking
2 AdjO
10 AdjD
131 AdjTempo
50 Non Conference SOS
103 Experience
39 Effective Height
61 Free Throw %
43 2 point %
26 3 point %
119 Luck

[EastCoastCat]

Nerds.

[RondaeShimmy]

I'd feel better about a championship or f4 if Arizona was elite (top 3) in one of the metrics and stayed there the whole way, offense being the most likely one.

You can generally see in past top 10/10 teams that teams that weren't really elite in at least one of the adjusted numbers had generally disappointing tournament runs. 8 and 8 (7 and 10 on Trank) says that to me right now.

My eyes test says they're way better than adjusted numbers show but there's clearly some inefficiency there that the advanced metrics are picking up, or maybe it's still being weighed down from last year. What's interesting is that defense has had the biggest jumps so far and highest peaks. Think they were #4 on defense a while back.

[97cats]

Nerds.

no question!

[Alieberman]

I like winning

[U.P. Zona Fan]

I like nerds.

[EastCoastCat]

I like winning nerds.

[dovecanyoncat]

Does Miller get partial credit if we get to the FF this year?

He does ..... from everyone with a pulse that reaches their brain.

[UAEebs86]

[azgreg]

I like nerds.

[azgreg]

[Beachcat97]

I'm assuming that Monty is praising us, but I can't make out the context for his remarks.

[97cats]

yes

[ChooChooCat]

Kentucky 2011/12 - adjO(8) adjD(2)
Louisville 2012/13 - adjO(21) adjD(1)
UCONN 2013/14 - adjO(53) adjD(39)
Duke 2014/15 - adjO(1) adjD(16)
Villanova in 2015/16 - adjO(2) adjD(10)
North Carolina 2016/17 - adjO(9) adjD(10)
Villanova 2017/18 - adjO(2) adjD(25)
Virginia 2018/19 - adjO(8) adjD(5)
Baylor 2020/21 - adjO(3) adjD(9)

More credence that some UCONN fan was important enough to the devil that he was willing to take his soul in return for UCONN to go on a ridiculous run that year.

[97cats]

the blood sacrifices and black magic are deep and dark for UCONN extending well beyond 13/14

[Spaceman Spiff]

Hey, it's his first post, no Mark Few DUI jokes yet. Let him settle in.

Thanks for warm welcome.

Believe me Zag fans were some of the loudest critics.

Some blamed Arizona for taking away his designated driver. )

Ballo had nice game against Stanford. The kid has always had a nice stroke from free throw line.

Just a little trash talk. Ultimately, it's a mistake but as a university that employed Kevin Sumlin, substance abuse happens with coaches.

Overall, I think most of us really respect Gonzaga and Few (at least I do) for building a solid program in terms of winning culture, player development and overall stability. Gonzaga's been the mid-major poster boy for 25 years now.

It's nice to know Lloyd has a diversified skill set.

I've been critical of Ballo in part because he's so hard to play with Koloko against decent teams so he winds up a spot player vs anyone good. If/when Koloko leaves us, I'll like it better when he's the only true 5. I said it a bit back, but he's the kind of player that would have been a super stud in the mid 90's.

[RawleArenas]

In regards to recruiting, I've gone on the record saying that Lloyd has been extremely disappointing. Bruce Pascoe said that Lloyd is waiting till after the season to push the gas pedal, after he determines which players are staying. I have not heard anything from Lloyd on this, but I'm almost certain that he understands how serious the stakes are, so we'll see.

To be fair, one thing people miss out on this team is not that they're just talented, but they are the sum of Miller's maturity as a coach. Everything that Miller learned about program building, roster management, and juggling egos was put into last years team. I mean if we had both Brown's and Batcho frorm last year, even without Akinjo, this team would have been downright menacing. I've made this point in previous posts, but Miller got to the point that he was able to put together championship rosters in one year, a skill 99 percent of coaches don't have. That being said, I am excited to see that Lloyd was able to take Miller's value meal of international players and supersize it. It's been a joy to watch. It feels bad to say this, but it almost makes you think that if Miller was Lloyd's recruiting coordinator, UofA would be unstoppable for years to come. Lloyd's systems and Miller's scouting/recruiting go together like peanut butter and jelly.

This team reminds me of the 2001 squad. I remember in the Final Four against Michigan where Jim Nantz said that you could almost make the case that every player in the starting five could earn player of the game honors. Billy Packer followed by stating that's the reason why they were going to play in the national championship. You get the feeling from watching them play that this team has a similar ceiling. Every player in the rotation has the ability to be a gamechanger. If we play the way we're capable of we have a strong chance to be the #1 overall seed. Even Zag fans are worried about the possibility.

Comparing this team to 01 and it’s almost a wash.

Gardner v Kerr - gotta give advantage Gardner dude was such a good defender for his size and NEVER got tired.

Benn v Gil - i would say Benn (we are only talking AT UA for the one year. Benn is legit a NPOY candidate and I’m not sure Gil was even the best player on the team (Gil could have nights though where the ceiling was just as high)

RJ v Terry - i love Terry but RJ is the answer here all day. They are close in D but RJ was a much more potent scorer even if Terry does a little bit more of everything than RJ did.

Wright v Tubelis - this one is tough. In todays game I’d rather have Tubelis as we don’t need a high/low post game w two guys in the paint always like we had w Woods and Wright but Wright was our most consistent threat in 01. He’s the guy we went to w two Collins twins draped all over him in the final moments. For each team , I’d call this a push, maybe slightest of edges to Tubelis.

Woods v C-Lo - another tough one. I’d prob lean slightly to Woods as he really did take over the title game and keep us in it and he had a few double digit block games, which C-Lo can’t quite say he has. This one is very close as well.

Bench - maybe this is recency bias after last night but i think this bench mob is better than 01 by a decent margin. I loved Walton but Anderson RS that year and Edgerson was a banger but basically he, wessel, Frazier and Hanour were just bodies to steal a few minutes for the starters to rest. Our bench this year legit has 3 guys who can give u double digit points on any given night. And Kier is a well rounded bucket getter.

So you add it up and I’d give PG and C slightly to 01, SF decently to 01; but PF and SG slightly to 21, and bench decently to 21. Pretty equal teams in terms of talent imo.

I thought it was a rule we could only compare teams to 1997?

I'd go 2001 by double digits in a game. I think Woods is comparable to Koloko, with Koloko slightly better as a rim protector but Woods being more of a post threat.

Wright was a rock on D and the glass in a way Tubelis isn't. Tubelis is more explosive on O, but I'd take Wright.

RJ > Terry, that's an easy call.

Gil over Benn. Benn is really good, but Gil had the type of offensive game to be a 30 ppg guy in the NBA and was a high level defender. I'm just not rating any 2 guard in Arizona history over Gil.

Gardner over Kerr. Kerr is good, but Gardner is just a more mature, solid version. Gardner in 2001 is who Kerr might be as a junior or senior.

Bench, Walton just outdoes current. Frankly, Walton is a better type of Dalen Terry. Our current bench has decent players, but Edgerson, Wessel and Frazier are sort of the caliber of player I'd class Ballo, Kier and Larsson as. That's not an insult, as I'm saying they're rotation guys on a potential national runner up who could have easily won it all.

I was using the '01 team as a comparison in terms of impact personnel, I wasn't saying they were equivalent or better. But to Postmaster's point , if this team existed in the late 90's era, we'd still have Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji and Nico to complement our starting five. If that were the case, you could absolutely make comparisons to the 2001 team.

Gil was a supernova type player. You could make an argument that he was the most developed player ever to come out of the program, even with DWill and Benn in the discussion. The larger point I was making was that this team will be hard to beat in the tournament if they tighten it up and get focused. We can play a lot of different ways and when we're playing great defense and limit turnovers, we can run over quality, ranked teams.

I wasn't being super serious, please do not take offense. I had hoped my statment that 97 is the only allowed comparison would make it non-serious.

No disrespect.

The GOAT "if it were the 90's" team would be TJ, NJ, Stanley, RHJ, Aaron Gordon, Ashley and Zeus or maybe Nico, Green, Alkins, Simmons, Dylan Smith, Lauri, Zeke and Ayton.

None taken Spiff, I've always enjoyed your takes (love metrics and analytics) although including Dylan Smith is uh.... suspect.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Comparing this team to 01 and it’s almost a wash.

Gardner v Kerr - gotta give advantage Gardner dude was such a good defender for his size and NEVER got tired.

Benn v Gil - i would say Benn (we are only talking AT UA for the one year. Benn is legit a NPOY candidate and I’m not sure Gil was even the best player on the team (Gil could have nights though where the ceiling was just as high)

RJ v Terry - i love Terry but RJ is the answer here all day. They are close in D but RJ was a much more potent scorer even if Terry does a little bit more of everything than RJ did.

Wright v Tubelis - this one is tough. In todays game I’d rather have Tubelis as we don’t need a high/low post game w two guys in the paint always like we had w Woods and Wright but Wright was our most consistent threat in 01. He’s the guy we went to w two Collins twins draped all over him in the final moments. For each team , I’d call this a push, maybe slightest of edges to Tubelis.

Woods v C-Lo - another tough one. I’d prob lean slightly to Woods as he really did take over the title game and keep us in it and he had a few double digit block games, which C-Lo can’t quite say he has. This one is very close as well.

Bench - maybe this is recency bias after last night but i think this bench mob is better than 01 by a decent margin. I loved Walton but Anderson RS that year and Edgerson was a banger but basically he, wessel, Frazier and Hanour were just bodies to steal a few minutes for the starters to rest. Our bench this year legit has 3 guys who can give u double digit points on any given night. And Kier is a well rounded bucket getter.

So you add it up and I’d give PG and C slightly to 01, SF decently to 01; but PF and SG slightly to 21, and bench decently to 21. Pretty equal teams in terms of talent imo.

I thought it was a rule we could only compare teams to 1997?

I'd go 2001 by double digits in a game. I think Woods is comparable to Koloko, with Koloko slightly better as a rim protector but Woods being more of a post threat.

Wright was a rock on D and the glass in a way Tubelis isn't. Tubelis is more explosive on O, but I'd take Wright.

RJ > Terry, that's an easy call.

Gil over Benn. Benn is really good, but Gil had the type of offensive game to be a 30 ppg guy in the NBA and was a high level defender. I'm just not rating any 2 guard in Arizona history over Gil.

Gardner over Kerr. Kerr is good, but Gardner is just a more mature, solid version. Gardner in 2001 is who Kerr might be as a junior or senior.

Bench, Walton just outdoes current. Frankly, Walton is a better type of Dalen Terry. Our current bench has decent players, but Edgerson, Wessel and Frazier are sort of the caliber of player I'd class Ballo, Kier and Larsson as. That's not an insult, as I'm saying they're rotation guys on a potential national runner up who could have easily won it all.

I was using the '01 team as a comparison in terms of impact personnel, I wasn't saying they were equivalent or better. But to Postmaster's point , if this team existed in the late 90's era, we'd still have Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji and Nico to complement our starting five. If that were the case, you could absolutely make comparisons to the 2001 team.

Gil was a supernova type player. You could make an argument that he was the most developed player ever to come out of the program, even with DWill and Benn in the discussion. The larger point I was making was that this team will be hard to beat in the tournament if they tighten it up and get focused. We can play a lot of different ways and when we're playing great defense and limit turnovers, we can run over quality, ranked teams.

I wasn't being super serious, please do not take offense. I had hoped my statment that 97 is the only allowed comparison would make it non-serious.

No disrespect.

The GOAT "if it were the 90's" team would be TJ, NJ, Stanley, RHJ, Aaron Gordon, Ashley and Zeus or maybe Nico, Green, Alkins, Simmons, Dylan Smith, Lauri, Zeke and Ayton.

None taken Spiff, I've always enjoyed your takes (love metrics and analytics) although including Dylan Smith is uh.... suspect.

I'll say, I intentionally listed him as the 5th best perimeter guy for a reason. I feel similarly with him and PJC. I'd have liked both guys so much better if they were 8th men in a rotation instead of starters playing 30 mpg.

[EastCoastCat]

Spiff, please don't jinx us with any of this Dylan Smith or PJC talk.

Geez.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Median Values for National Champion Teams since 1985 (2003 for Pomeroy data}:
These are all Post Season numbers - after the tournament has been played.
Only 15 of 36 won their post season conference tournaments.

33 wins
5 losses
3 Preseason AP ranking
3 Final AP ranking
3 RPI
1 seed
2 Sagarin ranking
12 Sagarin SOS (11 Pomeroy SOS)
1 Pomeroy ranking
2 AdjO
10 AdjD
131 AdjTempo
50 Non Conference SOS
103 Experience
39 Effective Height
61 Free Throw %
43 2 point %
26 3 point %
119 Luck

I always find stat discussions like this so interesting. Trying to ferret out a few common real world factors, I'd look at this.

1. Talent. This is why you see a high preseason ranking. I did my own less scientific view and basically you see NCAA champs with a minimum of 2-3 players with significant NBA careers.
2. Excelling on both ends. This is the one consistent factor you see repeated, and it makes intuitive sense. If a team is too heavily dependent on one wnd of the floor, it does not go particularly well.
3. Relative impact of efficiency vs style of play. This is one reason I always was team Miller vs his critics on offense. Offensive efficiency is highly correlated to winning, pace much less so.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Spiff, please don't jinx us with any of this Dylan Smith or PJC talk.

Geez.

Are you saying PJC single handedly drove our height metric below where it needed to be for a NC on Kaibab's scale?

[EastCoastCat]

Spiff, please don't jinx us with any of this Dylan Smith or PJC talk.

Geez.

Are you saying PJC single handedly drove our height metric below where it needed to be for a NC on Kaibab's scale?

While I have to admit you are a whiz with with a multitude of player and team metrics the one you absolutely suck at is the one regarding quantitative name-dropping AdjJ.

The J stands for jinxing.

[g32knights]

Still number 3, but got one first place vote this week.

I bet it was Seth Davis.

[Alieberman]

Is this good?

[SCCats]

Is this good?

It feels like it’s good.

[EastCoastCat]

It feels like a #1 seed that's for sure.

[IndianaZonaFan]

Still number 3, but got one first place vote this week.

I bet it was Seth Davis.

Not Seth. It was a writer from Colorado.

Someone ranked us 11…

[Beachcat97]

It feels like a #1 seed that's for sure.

What's crazy is that it may remain a #1 seed profile almost regardless of what happens tomorrow and down the stretch in the reg season. We'd have to go into some kind of tailspin to screw up these metrics. As long as we avoid bad losses, beat UCLA at least once, and preferably beat USC and Oregon, the #1 is assured, imo.

[PennZona20]

Are we making up the UsC and ASU game or are they just donezo?

[Beachcat97]

Are we making up the UsC and ASU game or are they just donezo?

I have tickets to the USC game and haven't heard any news. I gotta assume it's either being shoe-horned into the late weeks of the reg season or isn't happening.

[Beachcat97]

Anyone heard anything about Tubelis and/or Kier? Kinda expecting both will be out tomorrow.

[azcat49]

Kier said he was playing and AT was seen without a boot so I bet he gives it a go