Official Bracketology Thread

[TheCat]

You mean the ASU classic?

[Alieberman]

Hey stat nerds-

I Just looked at the latest Net Rankings- Currently they have:
1 Gonzaga
2 Arizona
This is great... but then I look at Auburn and they are at #7... how is this? They have less losses and have better Quad 1,2,3 record... so what are Net rankings truly based on?

[UAEebs86]

Maybe margin of victory is taken into account like with Sagarin?

[azgreg]

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... -explained

[UAEebs86]

Maybe margin of victory is taken into account like with Sagarin?

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... -explained

So that says they used to use scoring margin, but no longer do.

[Chicat]

Maybe it’s the old Stoned Chicat Half-Closed Eyeball Test.

[g32knights]

When does the committee do their Top 16 reveal? Based off of last year it should be next weekend.

[dmjcat]

Jerry Palm has AZ replacing Baylor on the 1 line

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... f-bracket/

[dmjcat]

[97cats]

Bracketology: Arizona bumps Baylor from top line, joins Auburn, Gonzaga and Kansas as No. 1 seeds

The revolving door at the top of the bracket continues. Baylor's struggles continued over the weekend, resulting in a blowout loss at Kansas. Arizona, which defeated USC on Saturday, is a new No. 1 seed in the bracket projection. For now.

For as long as Auburn has been the overall No. 1 seed in my bracket, I have had them in the Midwest Regional in Chicago because that is the closest one. The next closest is the South Regional in San Antonio, which is about 100 miles further away from its campus.

The bracketing process is driven by geography, not just putting teams in order from 1-68, and attempts to put a team in the closest location possible as long as other bracketing rules are not violated. However, the overall No. 1 seed gets to choose its location. I have no way of knowing what site the Tigers have chosen, but it is possible they wouldn't choose Chicago.

One of the other bracketing rules is that the No. 5 overall seed cannot be in the same region as the overall No.1. That is why Purdue is not in Chicago with Auburn. In an odd twist, that opened the door to end up with Illinois in that region as a No. 4 seed. I'm sure Auburn would not be thrilled to have to face the Illini in Chicago if it came to that.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... o-1-seeds/

region and bracket...

[97cats]

this week alone, the teams listed below play each other and are all ranked in the top 25 heading into Monday's play. the point, half of these teams (all ranked) will lose a game no matter what, in the case of Texas maybe two, thus continuing to create space between the middling seeds (3-9) and the top of the bracket. each week Arizona and the rest of the top of the field remains unscathed creates more opportunity from the pool to keep losing ground. Arizona would have to have 4+ loses to play its way out of a top eight seed as of today - time will tell.

* Texas
* Kansas
* Marquette
* Wisconsin
* Michigan State
* Illinois
* Purdue
* UCONN
* Xavier
* Baylor
* UCLA
* USC
* Gonzaga
* St. Mary's

[dmjcat]

this week alone, the teams listed below play each other and are all ranked in the top 25 heading into Monday's play. the point, half of these teams (all ranked) will lose a game no matter what, in the case of Texas maybe two, thus continuing to create space between the middling seeds (3-9) and the top of the bracket. each week Arizona and the rest of the top of the field remains unscathed creates more opportunity from the pool to keep losing ground. Arizona would have to have 4+ loses to play its way out of a top eight seed as of today - time will tell.

* Texas
* Kansas
* Marquette
* Wisconsin
* Michigan State
* Illinois
* Purdue
* UCONN
* Xavier
* Baylor
* UCLA
* USC
* Gonzaga
* St. Mary's

4 losses and still be a 2 seed?? I wouldn't bet on that.

UCLA dropped 2 games and slid 9 spots down in the rankings. AZ is not Villanova or Duke. Whenever a PAC12 team loses it just reinforces the narrative that the PAC12 is weak so the loser must be punished. Hell, UCLA is now a 4 seed in the NET rankings.

[97cats]

UCLA lost back to back games one to a third tier opponent

do yourself a favor and go look at the win loses of teams in the top 30.

as reference, just so you're aware, Arizona has two loses as of today...thats 1 and 2 loses.

remember, just like this week, other teams will lose too...i dont see Arizona losing three more times but thats why they play the games!!

[azgreg]

TTU has 5 loses and is still in the top 10.

[dmjcat]

UCLA lost back to back games one to a third tier opponent

do yourself a favor and go look at the win loses of teams in the top 30.

as reference, just so you're aware, Arizona has two loses as of today...thats 1 and 2 loses.

remember, just like this week, other teams will lose too...i dont see Arizona losing three more times but thats why they play the games!!

And if we lose another game it will be to a PAC12 opponent..........who will be by definition a "weak" opponent.

Looking at the other teams in the top 30 I seed Nova with 6 losses at 15, TTech with 5 losses at #9 and Illinois with 5 losses at 17.
If one of those schools lose they barely drop.....if you are USC or UCLA (or any other PAC12 school) a loss will drop you like a rock.

I'll call it now. If we finish with 6 losses we will NOT be a top 8 seed.

[Olsondogg]

TTU has 5 loses and is still in the top 10.

They also dealt with some injuries. They are about as legit a defensive team out there and I want no part of them.

[azgreg]

TTU has 5 loses and is still in the top 10.

They also dealt with some injuries. They are about as legit a defensive team out there and I want no part of them.

I was just reiterating 97's point.

[97cats]

I'll call it now. If we finish with 6 losses we will NOT be a top 8 seed.

i'll call that too, as i said that exact thing in my original post which clearly you didnt read.

for Arizona to fall out of the top 8, as it sits today, they would have to lose three more times in order to fall out of the top 8 which, like ive said five times, i dont see Arizona losing three more times.

so, to end, five loses and Arizona is on the three line.

maybe next time take 30 seconds to read what i said instead of just rushing to disagree, you may find if you slow down that we actually agree, like this example right here in this thread.

[Alieberman]

All AZ does is keeps on winning.... we are a few hours away from our 20th victory...

[dmjcat]

I'll call it now. If we finish with 6 losses we will NOT be a top 8 seed.

i'll call that too, as i said that exact thing in my original post which clearly you didnt read.

for Arizona to fall out of the top 8, as it sits today, they would have to lose three more times in order to fall out of the top 8 which, like ive said five times, i dont see Arizona losing three more times.

so, to end, five loses and Arizona is on the three line.

maybe next time take 30 seconds to read what i said instead of just rushing to disagree, you may find if you slow down that we actually agree, like this example right here in this thread.

Uh, no thats NOT what you said.

Arizona would have to have 4+ loses to play its way out of a top eight seed as of today - time will tell.


4+ is NOT 3. And by the way, its LOSSES, not loses.

[97cats]

uh, thats what i sad, you are choosing to twist. as of today, Arizona would have to have 4+ losses (they have two today) to be out of the top 8.

same as before, same as now.

i will check back in on this for sure, and we can play the math game...i'll hit ya back

[UAEebs86]

Nowhere did 97 say 4 more losses. He said 4+ losses total.

[dmjcat]

Nowhere did 97 say 4 more losses. He said 4+ losses total.

Nowhere did 97 say 4+ losses total...............he said "4+ more loses" ("loses" is NOT "losses"). I couldn't tell if that was bad grammar or bad spelling. I took it as he meant losing 4+ going forward. If he meant "losses" then I agree with him.

[97cats]

Go Cats!!
sorry for the spelling
Go Cats!!

[RondaeShimmy]

Nowhere did 97 say 4 more losses. He said 4+ losses total.

Nowhere did 97 say 4+ losses total...............he said "4+ more loses" ("loses" is NOT "losses"). I couldn't tell if that was bad grammar or bad spelling. I took it as he meant losing 4+ going forward. If he meant "losses" then I agree with him.

Pretty clear you misread it

this week alone, the teams listed below play each other and are all ranked in the top 25 heading into Monday's play. the point, half of these teams (all ranked) will lose a game no matter what, in the case of Texas maybe two, thus continuing to create space between the middling seeds (3-9) and the top of the bracket. each week Arizona and the rest of the top of the field remains unscathed creates more opportunity from the pool to keep losing ground. Arizona would have to have 4+ loses to play its way out of a top eight seed as of today - time will tell.

* Texas
* Kansas
* Marquette
* Wisconsin
* Michigan State
* Illinois
* Purdue
* UCONN
* Xavier
* Baylor
* UCLA
* USC
* Gonzaga
* St. Mary's

The context makes it clear he's talking about 4 TOTAL losses in the season. Because he's talking about a lot of ranked teams will play each other and will almost surely lose again and that benefits Arizona (plus Zags, Auburn).

If fact he's saying that if Arizona losses 4 game, it's out of the top 8 seed line.

[Beachcat97]

I'll call it now. If we finish with 6 losses we will NOT be a top 8 seed.

We're not finishing with 6 losses.

[TheCat]

I do think with the way the PAC is rescheduling games we will lose two more. Having 4 losses for the year is remarkable and worthy of a two seed.

[Beachcat97]

Can't believe they put our USC game on a Tuesday. I bought tickets in the first place because it was a weekend game. Now I can't do it. Oh well. Not like they had a lot of options, but I'd almost just prefer to skip the game at this point. A loss will impact our seeding, and we'll be playing them on short rest. Bullshit.

[97cats]

and so it goes

[Alieberman]

and so it goes

The outcomes of all the games tonight did nothing but help our path to a #1

[97cats]

Duke and Kansas lost - did i miss something?

[U.P. Zona Fan]

And lunardi has us as a 1 seed according to SVP after the Kansas loss!

[97cats]

attrition - two losses
two

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Duke and Kansas lost - did i miss something?

Yes, you missed two teams that should have finished their business but didn't and then got it handed to them.

Love that we were up by 23 with like 2 min left.
That is taking care of it.

[RondaeShimmy]

Providence honestly has a pretty good resume. I'm surprised they're so low in NET.

They're 20-2 overall while being 5-1 in Quad 1 and 5-1 in Quad 2.

[Olsondogg]

It’s February 8th. Seed talk is fun and all, but it’s over a month away.

So much will happen.

[97cats]

It’s February 8th. Seed talk is fun and all, but it’s over a month away.

So much will happen.

no question - 100% you are right

[RondaeShimmy]

And lunardi has us as a 1 seed according to SVP after the Kansas loss!

Has us as #1 in the South (San Antonio) with opening rounds being played in San Diego.

4 Marquette
5 Michigan St

3 Providence
2 Baylor

Baylor honestly makes sense if it comes to fruition as the 2 seed. You have them playing in state and potentially playing against Akinjo would be spicy

[97cats]

Bracketology: Arizona moves to No. 1 line after ASU win, Baylor Drops

Arizona's rout of Arizona State moved the Wildcats to a No. 1 seed While Baylor dropped after a loss to Kansas one

It's time to give it up for Arizona. In the season-opening edition of Bracketology, the Wildcats were a "Next Four Out" team. After winning at archrival Arizona State on Monday, they sit on the top line of the bracket and are locked into their first NCAA tournament bid in four years. We all thought Tommy Lloyd would succeed in Tucson, but no one thought this level of success would occur this quickly. Even if Arizona is eclipsed at some point by a stronger No. 1 seed candidate, it seems headed for nothing worse than a No. 2 seed in the West on Selection Sunday. It is a remarkable debut for Lloyd and the Wildcats.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

[Beachcat97]

This upcoming game @WSU is arguably our toughest remaining reg season game. I’m not counting the game @USC because I’m still annoyed that game is even happening.

[97cats]

Mathurin loves playing in Pullman

[Chicat]

Mathurin loves playing in Pullman

He seems to do his best work on the road.

[RondaeShimmy]

This upcoming game @WSU is arguably our toughest remaining reg season game. I’m not counting the game @USC because I’m still annoyed that game is even happening.

Oregon

[Beachcat97]

This upcoming game @WSU is arguably our toughest remaining reg season game. I’m not counting the game @USC because I’m still annoyed that game is even happening.

Oregon

That one's at McKale. Not worried.

[RondaeShimmy]

This upcoming game @WSU is arguably our toughest remaining reg season game. I’m not counting the game @USC because I’m still annoyed that game is even happening.

Oregon

That one's at McKale. Not worried.

I know it was in front of empty crowds but they beat UCLA and USC back to back on the road this year

Also they're desperate and need to win to get into the tournament. Plus Altman's teams are better later in the year.

[Beachcat97]

This upcoming game @WSU is arguably our toughest remaining reg season game. I’m not counting the game @USC because I’m still annoyed that game is even happening.

Oregon

That one's at McKale. Not worried.

I know it was in front of empty crowds but they beat UCLA and USC back to back on the road this year

Also they're desperate and need to win to get into the tournament. Plus Altman's teams are better later in the year.

I hear you. And I've been on the "don't sleep on Oregon" train all year. I'm sure they'll give us all we can handle at McKale. I'm just feeling more and more confident in our team by the week.

[Alieberman]

It seems to me 2 #1s are pretty much locked barring disaster (Auburn Gonzaga)

And these are the other teams who are basically fighting for the other 2 # seeds and 2 seeds: (in a close basic order)

Purdue
AZ
Kentucky
Duke
Kansas
Baylor
Houston
Texas Tech
Wisconsin
Providence
UCLA

It really makes it seem like we would need a horrible finish to fall to a #3

[Olsondogg]

Auburn will take some losses coming up. They play tonight at Arkansas and still have Tennessee on the road. They’ve escaped several recent games, not sold on them as a 1 locked.

The zags are a 1 fo sho

[Beachcat97]

It really makes it seem like we would need a horrible finish to fall to a #3

Coupled with some of the others on your list not losing more reg season games.

[Beachcat97]

Auburn will take some losses coming up. They play tonight at Arkansas and still have Tennessee on the road. They’ve escaped several recent games, not sold on them as a 1 locked.

The zags are a 1 fo sho

Auburn is pretty damn close to a lock for a #1, imo.