The 2021-2022 Season Thread

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:47 am

It was in double OT and Kofi fouled out in 22 mins. Also Curbelo first game back.

Plus it was Purdue which is different than losing to asu in double ot

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 8:55 am

Purdue is a legit contender, imo, but Illinois has really found their stride. Should be a great game tonight.

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:13 am

Catintheheat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:41 pm Play the entire team during the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tourney, not trying to win so the team can get some rest before the bigger tourney.

As we all know, Lute hated the PAC tourney as he would rather rest the team. I recall one season when UCLA was going to fire Lavin after an Elite 8 appearance, and 4 Sweet 16s then had one awful year. Cats more or less intentionally tanked that game to give Lavin one more chance in the tourney, along with being able to get some time off before the NCAA tourney.

UA was the #1 seed in the west, and eventually lost to Kansas the 2nd seed in the Elite 8.

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:56 am

I am really starting to believe that Kerr Kriisa is going to be the key for a run in the tourney. He has a lot to learn, and is fearless. The thing is he gets so emotional at times that he really makes bad plays. He is having fun, but playing beyond his abilities. Yet, when he is sharp he is really good. He can see the court really well. Sometimes when he gets going he needs to understand when to slow down and play smart. I think the player he should try and emulate is Luka Doncic. I've seen amazing passes and shooting from Kerr. Remember, he is only a sophomore and he had limited play last year. And, yet at times I've seen his court vision absolutely disappear and he makes boneheaded plays. Maybe he needs o little time on the bench, to settle down, when he goes erratic.

If Kerr can learn to play with more control, we can win a national championship. He is the wildcard.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:04 am

Catintheheat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:56 am I am really starting to believe that Kerr Kriisa is going to be the key for a run in the tourney. He has a lot to learn, and is fearless. The thing is he gets so emotional at times that he really makes bad plays. He is having fun, but playing beyond his abilities. Yet, when he is sharp he is really good. He can see the court really well. Sometimes when he gets going he needs to understand when to slow down and play smart. I think the player he should try and emulate is Luka Doncic. I've seen amazing passes and shooting from Kerr. Remember, he is only a sophomore and he had limited play last year. And, yet at times I've seen his court vision absolutely disappear and he makes boneheaded plays. Maybe he needs o little time on the bench, to settle down, when he goes erratic.

If Kerr can learn to play with more control, we can win a national championship. He is the wildcard.

Even though I agree, Harvey specter doesn’t like him and he sucks.

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:15 am

Kerr can make or break this team and Tommy is smart enough to see it from here, thats why Kier is getting more minutes of late...

Krissa has kept the entire "heart attack cats" trauma memory alive and well, but then he'll nail a 3 from 28 feet out...sonofabitch.

My son and I text during the games, he's in San Jose and a lifelong cats fan, went to Lute Olsons basketball camp and met Iggy his freshman year (That was my first encounter with how big these guys really are, my son was a freshman in HS and Iggy was like a friggin giant, but super personable and genuine, probably one of my all time favorite athletes)...

Anyway our text messages generally look like shouting matches yelling at Tommy to sit that kids ass down, and then we repent because he pulls some awesome play out of his ass...

But that kind of inconsistency, and his defensive weakness can kill us in March...teams are figuring out our achilles heel and against UCLA and USC Tommy had to keep hiding him...he will be a great PG in a few years but right now he's a roll of the dice.

SabinoDrifter · Post by **SabinoDrifter** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:17 am

I am not going to get too bent out of shape about a game where they led 84-58 with less than six minutes left. I do think it's another good lesson for Lloyd to pull on about keeping them focused for 40 minutes.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:22 am

CatFanOneMil wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:15 am
But that kind of inconsistency, and his defensive weakness can kill us in March...teams are figuring out our achilles heel and against UCLA and USC Tommy had to keep hiding him...he will be a great PG in a few years but right now he's a roll of the dice.

This is an excellent point on Kriisa, and I think the answer has to be sharing his minutes with Kier. Terry is also a very capable PG in transition.

Lloyd is proving to be a quick study. He knows he has an unbelievable opportunity in his first season as a head coach. I'm going to trust that he'll figure out the Kriisa situation.

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:23 am

Catintheheat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:56 am I am really starting to believe that Kerr Kriisa is going to be the key for a run in the tourney. He has a lot to learn, and is fearless. The thing is he gets so emotional at times that he really makes bad plays. He is having fun, but playing beyond his abilities. Yet, when he is sharp he is really good. He can see the court really well. Sometimes when he gets going he needs to understand when to slow down and play smart. I think the player he should try and emulate is Luka Doncic. I've seen amazing passes and shooting from Kerr. Remember, he is only a sophomore and he had limited play last year. And, yet at times I've seen his court vision absolutely disappear and he makes boneheaded plays. Maybe he needs o little time on the bench, to settle down, when he goes erratic.

If Kerr can learn to play with more control, we can win a national championship. He is the wildcard.

His inability to penetrate the defense and score in the lane or pass out I feel will cost us more than his decision/play making. He has 9 total shots attempted at the rim this whole season.

The best he's looked was at Tennessee when he consistently hit those running floaters. He looked like Arizona's best player then. He doesn't even attempt those at all anymore.

If you're not making the defense collapse, that makes half court scoring even tougher because there's no space. Terry has to be the one who steps up there imo.

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:30 am

RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:23 am
Catintheheat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:56 am I am really starting to believe that Kerr Kriisa is going to be the key for a run in the tourney. He has a lot to learn, and is fearless. The thing is he gets so emotional at times that he really makes bad plays. He is having fun, but playing beyond his abilities. Yet, when he is sharp he is really good. He can see the court really well. Sometimes when he gets going he needs to understand when to slow down and play smart. I think the player he should try and emulate is Luka Doncic. I've seen amazing passes and shooting from Kerr. Remember, he is only a sophomore and he had limited play last year. And, yet at times I've seen his court vision absolutely disappear and he makes boneheaded plays. Maybe he needs o little time on the bench, to settle down, when he goes erratic.

If Kerr can learn to play with more control, we can win a national championship. He is the wildcard.
His inability to penetrate the defense and score in the lane or pass out I feel will cost us more than his decision/play making. He has 9 total shots attempted at the rim this whole season.

If you're not making the defense collapse, that makes half court scoring even tougher because there's no space. Terry has to be the one who steps up there imo.

Excellent point...whatever happened to that little floater he was starting to develop?

If Krissa could attack the lane enough to cause the defense to collapse we'd be unstoppable...as it is they kinda look at him with that "fuck around and find out" kind of gaze and he goes back to hiding behind the pick and roll...

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:34 am

He just abandoned the running floaters because he wanted to take 3s imo.

Mathurin similarly stopped attacking the basket and cutting and was also taking early shot clock 3s for this past lull.

FreeSpiritCat · Post by **FreeSpiritCat** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:35 am

RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:23 am
Catintheheat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 9:56 am I am really starting to believe that Kerr Kriisa is going to be the key for a run in the tourney. He has a lot to learn, and is fearless. The thing is he gets so emotional at times that he really makes bad plays. He is having fun, but playing beyond his abilities. Yet, when he is sharp he is really good. He can see the court really well. Sometimes when he gets going he needs to understand when to slow down and play smart. I think the player he should try and emulate is Luka Doncic. I've seen amazing passes and shooting from Kerr. Remember, he is only a sophomore and he had limited play last year. And, yet at times I've seen his court vision absolutely disappear and he makes boneheaded plays. Maybe he needs o little time on the bench, to settle down, when he goes erratic.

If Kerr can learn to play with more control, we can win a national championship. He is the wildcard.
His inability to penetrate the defense and score in the lane or pass out I feel will cost us more than his decision/play making. He has 9 total shots attempted at the rim this whole season.

The best he's looked was at Tennessee when he consistently hit those running floaters. He looked like Arizona's best player then.

If you're not making the defense collapse, that makes half court scoring even tougher because there's no space. Terry has to be the one who steps up there imo.

I do like Dalen Terry (and Pelle Larsson) more recently. Dalen Terry is becoming the best UA all around player. He makes good plays on offense and defense. Add to that his shot at all 3 levels is improving. He may play SF but is a good PG too. He also needs to temper his emotions.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:36 am

When Kriisa started using (and hitting) that floater, I swear his game was starting to resemble Miles Simon's. Simon never took as many threes as Kriisa, but he did become a pretty good three point shooter at AZ. Kriisa and Simon are about the same size. Simon is more athletic and could attack the rim, but his greatest values as a college player, imo, were his hoops IQ and clutch play. Not sure Kriisa has it in him to be this kind of player.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 11:12 am

Catintheheat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 10:35 am
I do like Dalen Terry (and Pelle Larsson) more recently. Dalen Terry is becoming the best UA all around player. He makes good plays on offense and defense. Add to that his shot at all 3 levels is improving. He may play SF but is a good PG too. He also needs to temper his emotions.

Players like Terry are super rare. He does everything. Solomon Hill maybe? Luke Walton? Iguodala?

Postmaster · Post by **Postmaster** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:07 pm

None of these guys are that great at dribbling through traffic.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:22 pm

I mean….

The Wildcats were 27-of-41 from 2-point range. They dominated the backboard 48-26. This is what’s known as a mismatch. After trailing 16-3, Arizona outscored the Sun Devils 37-20 the rest of the first half. In the second half, the Wildcats got out in transition, dunking eight times in 13 minutes. Twenty of their 22 fast-break points came over the final 20 minutes.

azcat49 · Post by **azcat49** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:26 pm

We were down 13, we gave up 13 three balls and committed 20 turnovers yet we led by 26 on the road. That in itself is incredible IMO. Shows how good we are and how much better we can be

ZagCatFan · Post by **ZagCatFan** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:51 pm

Lloyd has a lot longer leash than Few. I think it's a good thing but probably still too early to tell for sure.
Kerr plays well in March Lloyd will be credited with allowing kid to develop through rough patches.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 1:53 pm

Not sure I even understand that.

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:17 pm

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:40 pm

Who are the two below Koloko?

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:43 pm

Guessing Mathurin/Larsson

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:51 pm

I think our upcoming game at Wazzu is going to be more difficult than anyone believes. WSU is sitting right outside the bubble for the NCAAs. They have everything to gain and nothing to lose in this game.

I'd be happy with an ugly 2 point win

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:55 pm

Alieberman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 4:51 pm I think our upcoming game at Wazzu is going to be more difficult than anyone believes. WSU is sitting right outside the bubble for the NCAAs. They have everything to gain and nothing to lose in this game.

I'd be happy with an ugly 2 point win

I said the exact same thing in the other thread. They are next 4 out in some bracketology’s. A win against us would be huge for their Tourney hopes.

They will be coming out hungry and aggressive.

97cats · Post by **97cats** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:10 pm

Washington State is a Quad1 away game that is turning out to be another metric opportunity for Arizona

i agree it will be a physical and tough game and i dont think it will be a blowout.

i do believe the re-emergence of Arizona's bets player and All-American candidate will lead them to a win.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:22 pm

I really hope WSU wins out after we win our game with them.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:26 pm

U.P. Zona Fan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:22 pm I really hope WSU wins out after we win our game with them.

Their schedule is a killer starting on Thursday. I don’t expect them to be on the bubble for long unless they can pull some upsets.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:29 pm

I know, they have a really tough stretch coming up.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Tue Feb 08, 2022 6:38 pm

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:55 am

Chicat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:26 pm
U.P. Zona Fan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:22 pm I really hope WSU wins out after we win our game with them.
Their schedule is a killer starting on Thursday. I don’t expect them to be on the bubble for long unless they can pull some upsets.

Wazzu is actually the 3rd highest ranked Pac-12 team on Kenpom sitting at #30 (two spots ahead of USC). I knew they were better than their record, but needless to say that surprised me.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:03 am

ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 8:55 am
Chicat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:26 pm
U.P. Zona Fan wrote: ↑Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:22 pm I really hope WSU wins out after we win our game with them.
Their schedule is a killer starting on Thursday. I don’t expect them to be on the bubble for long unless they can pull some upsets.
Wazzu is actually the 3rd highest ranked Pac-12 team on Kenpom sitting at #30 (two spots ahead of USC). I knew they were better than their record, but needless to say that surprised me.

Really need to avoid Pac losses to unranked teams, even Oregon, who is making a stronger case for a bid.

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:06 am

This Arizona has a different gear/level it can go to

Unlike anything we've seen since the Lute teams

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:17 am

Spurtability as they say.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:25 am

Spurt of Death

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 am

Everyone around here is crowing about Purdue being the best offensive team in the country which just goes to show they don’t watch basketball that happens west of the Rockies.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:47 am

Chicat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 am Everyone around here is crowing about Purdue being the best offensive team in the country which just goes to show they don’t watch basketball that happens west of the Rockies.

To be fair they are #1 in Kenpom AdjO by a considerable margin. Their defense though is NOT good.

EastCoastCat · Post by **EastCoastCat** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:51 am

ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:47 am
Chicat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 am Everyone around here is crowing about Purdue being the best offensive team in the country which just goes to show they don’t watch basketball that happens west of the Rockies.
To be fair they are #1 in Kenpom AdjO by a considerable margin.

That's because they haven't played us yet.

I have watched them a few times. Not afraid of meeting up with them...in the FF of course.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:15 am

EastCoastCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:51 am
ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:47 am
Chicat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 am Everyone around here is crowing about Purdue being the best offensive team in the country which just goes to show they don’t watch basketball that happens west of the Rockies.
To be fair they are #1 in Kenpom AdjO by a considerable margin.
That's because they haven't played us yet.

I have watched them a few times. Not afraid of meeting up with them...in the FF of course.

First to 150 points wins.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:24 am

ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:47 am
Chicat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 am Everyone around here is crowing about Purdue being the best offensive team in the country which just goes to show they don’t watch basketball that happens west of the Rockies.
To be fair they are #1 in Kenpom AdjO by a considerable margin. Their defense though is NOT good.

I don't have an issue with that. Purdue's metrics are better than ours. Our to's are still to high to be in the overall #1 offense conversation.

That's not a bad thing though. Like you say, we're #11 on O but top 5 on D. Purdue is better on O but nowhere near us on D.

As the stat guys on here have said for a bit, being top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency both is infinitely preferable in the tourney context to being #1 on one side and sub #20 on the other end of the floor. Balanced teams win in the tourney much more than teams with great O or D who are meh on the other end.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:34 am

ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:47 am
Chicat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:35 am Everyone around here is crowing about Purdue being the best offensive team in the country which just goes to show they don’t watch basketball that happens west of the Rockies.
To be fair they are #1 in Kenpom AdjO by a considerable margin. Their defense though is NOT good.

To be fair, I don’t give a shit. Play some teams who play defense and then we can talk.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:36 am

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... 3847#Pac12

Lol

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:37 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:24 am As the stat guys on here have said for a bit, being top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency both is infinitely preferable in the tourney context to being #1 on one side and sub #20 on the other end of the floor. Balanced teams win in the tourney much more than teams with great O or D who are meh on the other end.

It's hit or miss. It basically gives Arizona a high floor. Most commonly leading to a E8 loss

From a post a couple of weeks ago of top 10 in offense/defense, which Arizona was at the moment

RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:46 pm 2010:
Kansas - adjo (2) adjd (8) = lose 2nd Rd to N Iowa
2011:
duke - adjo (5) adjd (9) = lose to Arizona s16
Kansas - adjo (6) adjd (6) = lose to vcu e8
2012:
Ohio st - adjo (6) adjd (4) = lose to Kansas f4
2013:
Florida: adjo (9) adjd (3) = lose to Michigan e8
2014:
Louisville - adjo (7) adjd (5) = lose to Kentucky s16
2015:
Kentucky - adjo (6) adjd (1) = lose to Wisconsin f4
Arizona - adjo (7) adjd (3) = lose to Wisconsin e8 *Wisconsin was adjo (1) and adj (35) offense>defense
2016:
Virginia - adjo (8) adjd (7) = lose to Syracuse e8
Kansas - adjo (10) adjd (3) = lose to Nova e8
2017:
None - both nova and unc had #11 and #12 in the metrics, so close but not top 10
2018:
Duke - adjo (3) adjd (9) = lose to Kansas e8
2019:
Michigan St - adjo (5) adjd (9) = lose to TTech f4
2021:
Michigan - adjo (9) adjd (4) = lose to ucla e8
Gonzaga had a adjusted defense of 11, just outside

I'd rather be top 3 offensively and like top 15 defensively to win the title. Have to be really elite at one thing and like with most sports, a great offense usually beats a great defense in the end.

ChooChooCat · Post by **ChooChooCat** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:48 am

RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:37 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:24 am As the stat guys on here have said for a bit, being top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency both is infinitely preferable in the tourney context to being #1 on one side and sub #20 on the other end of the floor. Balanced teams win in the tourney much more than teams with great O or D who are meh on the other end.
It's hit or miss. It basically gives Arizona a high floor. Most commonly leading to a E8 loss

Dear god, I may not leave my house for weeks.

Is anybody here important enough to sell their soul to ensure this doesn't happen? Someone has to UCONN this, please, for my own sanity.

RondaeShimmy · Post by **RondaeShimmy** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:52 am

ChooChooCat wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:48 am
RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:37 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:24 am As the stat guys on here have said for a bit, being top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency both is infinitely preferable in the tourney context to being #1 on one side and sub #20 on the other end of the floor. Balanced teams win in the tourney much more than teams with great O or D who are meh on the other end.
It's hit or miss. It basically gives Arizona a high floor. Most commonly leading to a E8 loss

Dear god, I may not leave my house for weeks.

Is anybody here important enough to sell their soul to ensure this doesn't happen? Someone has to UCONN this, please, for my own sanity.

I feel it's going to happen too, deep in my bones.

Basically the only thing I think could help is when Gonzaga made their first F4 everyone else had lost, the year #2 seed Arizona lost to Xavier and they also beat #3 FSU and Zags just smoked Xavier.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:56 am

Getting to the FF really is like catching lightning in a bottle. You need more than stellar performance metrics and star players. You need luck, and your team needs to remain hot (or at least hottish) for two weeks.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:01 am

RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:37 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:24 am As the stat guys on here have said for a bit, being top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency both is infinitely preferable in the tourney context to being #1 on one side and sub #20 on the other end of the floor. Balanced teams win in the tourney much more than teams with great O or D who are meh on the other end.
It's hit or miss. It basically gives Arizona a high floor. Most commonly leading to a E8 loss

From a post a couple of weeks ago of top 10 in offense/defense, which Arizona was at the moment

RondaeShimmy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 5:46 pm 2010:
Kansas - adjo (2) adjd (8) = lose 2nd Rd to N Iowa
2011:
duke - adjo (5) adjd (9) = lose to Arizona s16
Kansas - adjo (6) adjd (6) = lose to vcu e8
2012:
Ohio st - adjo (6) adjd (4) = lose to Kansas f4
2013:
Florida: adjo (9) adjd (3) = lose to Michigan e8
2014:
Louisville - adjo (7) adjd (5) = lose to Kentucky s16
2015:
Kentucky - adjo (6) adjd (1) = lose to Wisconsin f4
Arizona - adjo (7) adjd (3) = lose to Wisconsin e8 *Wisconsin was adjo (1) and adj (35) offense>defense
2016:
Virginia - adjo (8) adjd (7) = lose to Syracuse e8
Kansas - adjo (10) adjd (3) = lose to Nova e8
2017:
None - both nova and unc had #11 and #12 in the metrics, so close but not top 10
2018:
Duke - adjo (3) adjd (9) = lose to Kansas e8
2019:
Michigan St - adjo (5) adjd (9) = lose to TTech f4
2021:
Michigan - adjo (9) adjd (4) = lose to ucla e8
Gonzaga had a adjusted defense of 11, just outside
I'd rather be top 3 offensively and like top 15 defensively to win the title. Have to be really elite at one thing and like with most sports, a great offense usually beats a great defense in the end.

Agreed on high floor. I sort of disagree in that I think if you're top ten, elite is a fair characterization.

From the NCAA:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ncaa.c ... cent%3famp

The point that stands out to me:

"The last nine men's basketball national champions had an average AP poll ranking of 6.7 on Jan. 1, compared to an average kenpom.com ranking of 7.0."

This is with the bias of UConn and Nova dragging the averages down:

"The only two champions among the last nine that had a difference greater than two spots were UConn in 2014, which was ranked No. 17 in the AP poll on Jan. 1 but No. 40 on kenpom.com, and Villanova two years later, when it was No. 16 in the AP poll but No. 2 on kenpom.com."

The article lists the offensive and defensive breakdowns later, the trend I'd derive is 7 of 9 title teams were top 10 in AdjO, 6 of 9 were top 10 in AdjD. Expand to top 20 and you have 7 of 9 teams in both categories.

So, if you're pushing top ten in both AdjO and AdjD, you're good enough to win a title. If you are outside top 20 in one metric, the other had better be top 5 or you need to be UConn and have cut a deal with Satan to win nattys against all statistical probability.

For Arizona, which we care about most, if we keep our current metrics, they're natty level.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:24 am

The prospect of Lloyd getting to a FF, let alone win a national title, in his first season, not just as *our* coach but as a head coach at any level...it's hard to get my head around.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:42 am

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:56 am Getting to the FF really is like catching lightning in a bottle. You need more than stellar performance metrics and star players. You need luck, and your team needs to remain hot (or at least hottish) for two weeks.

I disagree a bit. See the article I posted. 6 of the last 9 champs were top 20 in both AdjO and AdjD.

Of the 3 that weren't, two, Nova and Louisville, were #2 in AdjO and #1 in AdjD respectively. They were both a hair outside the top 20 on the other end, #25 in AdjD and #21 on AdjO, again respectively.

So the takeaway is there's a consistent trend of national champs fitting a statistical profile. Top 20 in both AdjO and D or top 2 in one category in just outside top 20 in the other. Or...UConn.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:49 am

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:24 am The prospect of Lloyd getting to a FF, let alone win a national title, in his first season, not just as *our* coach but as a head coach at any level...it's hard to get my head around.

It's really not for me. We have good ****ing players. That's the dominant factor for most success.

People love John Wooden, but remove Kareem and Walton and replace them with Josh Pastner and he'd have won a lot fewer games.

CatFanOneMil · Post by **CatFanOneMil** » Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:54 am

Watched Sean and Archie Miller interview Ken Pomeroy last night, was kind of interesting but one of the things that stood out to me was ken saying he is trying to create a "predictive within a percentage" model and that some of his model is actually kind of old and does not take into account more modern approaches...but its too much trouble to go back and change the code because it would affect 10 years of model...

One thing in particular was the margin of victory metric which he actually weights pretty heavily because of its history...he said the modern idea of subbing in the bench (And Miller reaffirmed this by stating he used that metric himself a lot and waited until there was less than 2 minutes left to substitute) after having a big lead does not help teams, even though the starters might be getting benefit by resting...

Basically the more you run up the score the better your chances of having a very high rating in his system...which is why Gonzaga is always going to be pretty high there...look at their conference...

I wonder how much these analytics are actually affecting the game...look at the beating baylor handed Gonzaga last year...they were not in the same league but the metrics all said it would be close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBlVBzgtyWI&t=1296s

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