The 2021-2022 Season Thread

[EastCoastCat]

I have one big nitpik...the fucking TO's.

It still worries me against really good teams we will be facing down the road. I get that we love the great assist but some of the post feeds tonight were atrocious.

I don't think it's a nitpick. We outrebounded them by 15, shot 49% to their 34% and 42% from 3 to their 25%. We also shot 11 free throws to 3 for them.

Those above stats, I'd figured we'd have won by 30+, not 12. We pretty much crushed them in every department except turnovers, and turnovers made for a comfortable win instead of a massive blowout.

I mean, it's still a comfortable win, but you worry about what happens when you're playing a better team in the tournament. Turnovers are very much our achilles heel.

And I saw a stat (I know you will love this) that we scored on 66% of our possessions if you excluded our turnovers.

[EastCoastCat]

I have one big nitpik...the fucking TO's.

It still worries me against really good teams we will be facing down the road. I get that we love the great assist but some of the post feeds tonight were atrocious.

I don't think it's a nitpick. We outrebounded them by 15, shot 49% to their 34% and 42% from 3 to their 25%. We also shot 11 free throws to 3 for them.

Those above stats, I'd figured we'd have won by 30+, not 12. We pretty much crushed them in every department except turnovers, and turnovers made for a comfortable win instead of a massive blowout.

I mean, it's still a comfortable win, but you worry about what happens when you're playing a better team in the tournament. Turnovers are very much our achilles heel.

First, I don’t disagree with this per se. However, not all turnovers are created equal. Those that lead to dead ball, out of bounds plays aren’t nearly as harmful as our defense has the ability to recover and set up. I don’t have the stats on how many of the turnovers are those kind (like missed alley oops, or attempting to establish the post) but I feel as if many of them are. I am way less annoyed/worried about these kinds of turnovers as they happen when attempting to run great offense.

Just my 2 cents.

The problem is on the turnovers that lead to opposition buckets. Last night in the first half most of WSU's scoring was off of turnovers.

[Chicat]

I have one big nitpik...the fucking TO's.

It still worries me against really good teams we will be facing down the road. I get that we love the great assist but some of the post feeds tonight were atrocious.

I don't think it's a nitpick. We outrebounded them by 15, shot 49% to their 34% and 42% from 3 to their 25%. We also shot 11 free throws to 3 for them.

Those above stats, I'd figured we'd have won by 30+, not 12. We pretty much crushed them in every department except turnovers, and turnovers made for a comfortable win instead of a massive blowout.

I mean, it's still a comfortable win, but you worry about what happens when you're playing a better team in the tournament. Turnovers are very much our achilles heel.

First, I don’t disagree with this per se. However, not all turnovers are created equal. Those that lead to dead ball, out of bounds plays aren’t nearly as harmful as our defense has the ability to recover and set up. I don’t have the stats on how many of the turnovers are those kind (like missed alley oops, or attempting to establish the post) but I feel as if many of them are. I am way less annoyed/worried about these kinds of turnovers as they happen when attempting to run great offense.

Just my 2 cents.

A few of the turnovers last night were either post entry passes that sailed or were mishandled out of bounds. Others though were soft perimeter passes that either never got to the recipient or were telegraphed and easily picked off. The latter are definitely killers because they lead to easy run outs the other way.

If we are playing fast and passes are off the mark or we lose the dribble, that’s one thing, and I can live with it. If we are in the half court and literally just handing the ball to the other team in the open floor, it’s beyond frustrating. The good news is though that the players don’t seem to get down about it. They just come right back and score again. So that I think bodes well.

I have to think that when we have more experience next year and the following that our turnovers will decrease markedly.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I have one big nitpik...the fucking TO's.

It still worries me against really good teams we will be facing down the road. I get that we love the great assist but some of the post feeds tonight were atrocious.

I don't think it's a nitpick. We outrebounded them by 15, shot 49% to their 34% and 42% from 3 to their 25%. We also shot 11 free throws to 3 for them.

Those above stats, I'd figured we'd have won by 30+, not 12. We pretty much crushed them in every department except turnovers, and turnovers made for a comfortable win instead of a massive blowout.

I mean, it's still a comfortable win, but you worry about what happens when you're playing a better team in the tournament. Turnovers are very much our achilles heel.

And I saw a stat (I know you will love this) that we scored on 66% of our possessions if you excluded our turnovers.

Yeah, I do love stats.

That's the thing for me. We generally compensate pretty well by being high % when we aren't turning it over.

But the road loss at UCLA was basically what happens when you go cold and give away too many possessions. There's a luck element in the tourney and our D is good enough to keep us in most games, but I always hate when I can see the upset formula. For us, the upset formula is a cold shooting night combined with giving away too many possessions off to's.

[EastCoastCat]

I have one big nitpik...the fucking TO's.

It still worries me against really good teams we will be facing down the road. I get that we love the great assist but some of the post feeds tonight were atrocious.

I don't think it's a nitpick. We outrebounded them by 15, shot 49% to their 34% and 42% from 3 to their 25%. We also shot 11 free throws to 3 for them.

Those above stats, I'd figured we'd have won by 30+, not 12. We pretty much crushed them in every department except turnovers, and turnovers made for a comfortable win instead of a massive blowout.

I mean, it's still a comfortable win, but you worry about what happens when you're playing a better team in the tournament. Turnovers are very much our achilles heel.

And I saw a stat (I know you will love this) that we scored on 66% of our possessions if you excluded our turnovers.

Yeah, I do love stats.

That's the thing for me. We generally compensate pretty well by being high % when we aren't turning it over.

But the road loss at UCLA was basically what happens when you go cold and give away too many possessions. There's a luck element in the tourney and our D is good enough to keep us in most games, but I always hate when I can see the upset formula. For us, the upset formula is a cold shooting night combined with giving away too many possessions off to's.

Ding, ding, ding...we have a winner! This 1000%.

[Alieberman]

So we should not miss shots and turn the ball over.

Simple formula

[TheCat]

I have one big nitpik...the fucking TO's.

It still worries me against really good teams we will be facing down the road. I get that we love the great assist but some of the post feeds tonight were atrocious.

I don't think it's a nitpick. We outrebounded them by 15, shot 49% to their 34% and 42% from 3 to their 25%. We also shot 11 free throws to 3 for them.

Those above stats, I'd figured we'd have won by 30+, not 12. We pretty much crushed them in every department except turnovers, and turnovers made for a comfortable win instead of a massive blowout.

I mean, it's still a comfortable win, but you worry about what happens when you're playing a better team in the tournament. Turnovers are very much our achilles heel.

First, I don’t disagree with this per se. However, not all turnovers are created equal. Those that lead to dead ball, out of bounds plays aren’t nearly as harmful as our defense has the ability to recover and set up. I don’t have the stats on how many of the turnovers are those kind (like missed alley oops, or attempting to establish the post) but I feel as if many of them are. I am way less annoyed/worried about these kinds of turnovers as they happen when attempting to run great offense.

Just my 2 cents.

I think it is clear you don't worry about turnovers. If we don't turn it over we shoot about 65% and we don't give up about 25-30 points per game. That will get you to a final 4, not a 12 point victory over the Cougs.

[EastCoastCat]

So we should not miss shots and turn the ball over.

Simple formula

We didn't want to make it too complicated for you...

[Olsondogg]

I have one big nitpik...the fucking TO's.

It still worries me against really good teams we will be facing down the road. I get that we love the great assist but some of the post feeds tonight were atrocious.

I don't think it's a nitpick. We outrebounded them by 15, shot 49% to their 34% and 42% from 3 to their 25%. We also shot 11 free throws to 3 for them.

Those above stats, I'd figured we'd have won by 30+, not 12. We pretty much crushed them in every department except turnovers, and turnovers made for a comfortable win instead of a massive blowout.

I mean, it's still a comfortable win, but you worry about what happens when you're playing a better team in the tournament. Turnovers are very much our achilles heel.

First, I don’t disagree with this per se. However, not all turnovers are created equal. Those that lead to dead ball, out of bounds plays aren’t nearly as harmful as our defense has the ability to recover and set up. I don’t have the stats on how many of the turnovers are those kind (like missed alley oops, or attempting to establish the post) but I feel as if many of them are. I am way less annoyed/worried about these kinds of turnovers as they happen when attempting to run great offense.

Just my 2 cents.

I think it is clear you don't worry about turnovers. If we don't turn it over we shoot about 65% and we don't give up about 25-30 points per game. That will get you to a final 4, not a 12 point victory over the Cougs.

I think it’s clear you can’t read.

[azcat49]

We turn it over at a rate of almost 1 turnover on every 4 possessions (at least lately). That is scary.

Of course what is scary is we are finding ways to beat teams by 20 doing that

[Spaceman Spiff]

So we should not miss shots and turn the ball over.

Simple formula

More, we should cut down turnovers. Missing shots is partially a luck factor beyond our control. Turnovers are within our control.

You win in the tourney by controlling what you can and then hoping to get a bit of luck sprinkled on top.

[EastCoastCat]

Actually, I'm less worried about cold shooting nights. That can happen to any great team and there's nothing you can really do about it especially if you are getting good looks.

The other thing to note is that we 6 guys in our rotation that can get buckets close to the basket which can offset a bad shooting night.

The TO's I wish we can get below the 15 mark per game.

[Beachcat97]

For us, the upset formula is a cold shooting night combined with giving away too many possessions off to's.

Hard to see how this isn't the upset formula for all teams in the tourney.

[azcat49]

It’s not like the bulk of our turnovers are due to pressure from the other team. Most are on passes ahead or lobs. Those interior passes are being choked off as teams see tapes. Not like we are going to change our offense or get less aggressive on offense.

[UAEebs86]

Agree 49.

Seems like a lot of our turnovers are on shots that if the pass is made properly, lead to dunks or layups. I think the high scoring percentage on the good passes is compensating for the high number of TOs on the bad ones.

[RondaeShimmy]

I have one big nitpik...the fucking TO's.

It still worries me against really good teams we will be facing down the road. I get that we love the great assist but some of the post feeds tonight were atrocious.

First thing that contributes to it is Arizona just has more offensive possessions than most teams that contribute to that. If Arizona isn't scoring 90+ with those possessions, they're either non scoring or turnovers.

Second. It's probably an "either or" at this point. They're either explosive but turnover prone or disciplined but less threatening/explosive.

The former has a higher ceiling but lower floor, Lute-esque but I'll take it over the latter. Our defense is good enough to to stop teams

Third. A ton of them are bad lobs, alley oops, swing passes, long passes in transition etc that end up out of bounds.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Actually, I'm less worried about cold shooting nights. That can happen to any great team and there's nothing you can really do about it especially if you are getting good looks.

The other thing to note is that we 6 guys in our rotation that can get buckets close to the basket which can offset a bad shooting night.

The TO's I wish we can get below the 15 mark per game.

This guy gets it.

Cold shooting is up to the tournament Gods. Turnovers are the issue that you can improve in.

For people saying it's just pace, turnovers per possession sucks pace out of the equation and we're #175 in the nation.

I agree aggression comes with some extra to's, but there's big gap between a little higher and the bottom half of the entire NCAA in turnovers per possession. I'm not asking for a top ten in that category, but top 75-100 would put us in a much better place.

[dovecanyoncat]

Lots of those TOs appear to be formulaic passes rather than perceptive reads. When a rolling big gets hung up the pass is already in the air and then we're left hoping the pass goes out of bounds and doesn't get snagged and reversed into a fast break. Seems like just slowing down a touch or waiting for a quick defensive team to tire would help us.

[prh]

While we've been having some struggles lately, both as a team and for certain players, just note that all the top teams are experiencing this too, except they're finding ways to have ridiculous losses while we are still winning. Hopefully, we come out of the February swoon and get back looking like what we've seen is possible.

[RondaeShimmy]

Watched Sean and Archie Miller interview Ken Pomeroy last night, was kind of interesting but one of the things that stood out to me was ken saying he is trying to create a "predictive within a percentage" model and that some of his model is actually kind of old and does not take into account more modern approaches...but its too much trouble to go back and change the code because it would affect 10 years of model...

One thing in particular was the margin of victory metric which he actually weights pretty heavily because of its history...he said the modern idea of subbing in the bench (And Miller reaffirmed this by stating he used that metric himself a lot and waited until there was less than 2 minutes left to substitute) after having a big lead does not help teams, even though the starters might be getting benefit by resting...

Basically the more you run up the score the better your chances of having a very high rating in his system...which is why Gonzaga is always going to be pretty high there...look at their conference...

I wonder how much these analytics are actually affecting the game...look at the beating baylor handed Gonzaga last year...they were not in the same league but the metrics all said it would be close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBlVBzgtyWI&t=1296s

Finally listened to this during the game yesterday, think Kenpom said the most important (one of the most at least) was 2pt% on offense and defense.

Currently Arizona is shooting on offense 56.7% from 2pt which is ranked #9. On defense they hold opponents to 39.8% which is ranked #1.

[Olsondogg]

Watched Sean and Archie Miller interview Ken Pomeroy last night, was kind of interesting but one of the things that stood out to me was ken saying he is trying to create a "predictive within a percentage" model and that some of his model is actually kind of old and does not take into account more modern approaches...but its too much trouble to go back and change the code because it would affect 10 years of model...

One thing in particular was the margin of victory metric which he actually weights pretty heavily because of its history...he said the modern idea of subbing in the bench (And Miller reaffirmed this by stating he used that metric himself a lot and waited until there was less than 2 minutes left to substitute) after having a big lead does not help teams, even though the starters might be getting benefit by resting...

Basically the more you run up the score the better your chances of having a very high rating in his system...which is why Gonzaga is always going to be pretty high there...look at their conference...

I wonder how much these analytics are actually affecting the game...look at the beating baylor handed Gonzaga last year...they were not in the same league but the metrics all said it would be close.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBlVBzgtyWI&t=1296s

Finally listened to this during the game yesterday, think Kenpom said the most important (one of the most at least) was 2pt% on offense and defense.

Currently Arizona is shooting on offense 56.7% from 2pt which is ranked #9. On defense they hold opponents to 39.8% which is ranked #1.

Yeah this was a main takeaway along with efficient offense outweighing defense.

[azcat49]

The flip side of all those turnovers is the increase in assists we have seen. It’s the nature of the offense I think. It’s just the degree of difficulty on some of those passes that eats at me.

[SabinoDrifter]

I'd imagine CTL isn't happy with turnovers they can control, I.E. soft perimeter passing, bad entry passes, trying to make a highlight play. But they still play with a ridiculous amount of efficiency and their size is such an advantage on both sides.

And despite the turnovers, this the most points Wazzu has given up since they lost at Colorado in early January.

[Alieberman]

I don't know about the rest of you... but I'm ready to show Terrell Brown who the Pac-12 player of the year really is.

[Beachcat97]

I don't know about the rest of you... but I'm ready to show Terrell Brown who the Pac-12 player of the year really is.

TB isn't Benn's main competition. It's Ju-clang.

[EastCoastCat]

I don't know about the rest of you... but I'm ready to show Terrell Brown who the Pac-12 player of the year really is.

TB isn't Benn's main competition. It's Ju-clang.

Don’t agree. I think it’s TB by a nose right now.

I do think Big Benn is going to go off tomorrow.

[Spaceman Spiff]

The flip side of all those turnovers is the increase in assists we have seen. It’s the nature of the offense I think. It’s just the degree of difficulty on some of those passes that eats at me.

I mean, I don't think we have to freak out like the sky is falling. It's more that if I had to list what the most likely thing to bite us in the butt is...it'd be turnovers.

[Alieberman]

T Brown is definitely in the conversation for PAC 12 player of the year. (And deservedly so)

But that ends tomorrow…

[Beachcat97]

Can’t remember: is Pac tourney performance considered in Pac POY voting? Because if that’s the case, still a lot of chances for guys to rise or fall.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I don't know about the rest of you... but I'm ready to show Terrell Brown who the Pac-12 player of the year really is.

I still like TB. I hope he does well and we win.

[Merkin]

I do think Big Benn is going to go off tomorrow.

Sorry, I picked him in RAP instead of Zu.

[TheCat]

Can you imagine Washington without TB? I think he is the MVP but that is a bit different than player of the year.

[Alieberman]

I don't know about the rest of you... but I'm ready to show Terrell Brown who the Pac-12 player of the year really is.

I still like TB. I hope he does well and we win.

Did I indicate anything differently?

[Spaceman Spiff]

I don't know about the rest of you... but I'm ready to show Terrell Brown who the Pac-12 player of the year really is.

I still like TB. I hope he does well and we win.

Did I indicate anything differently?

No, you just posted about him and I like the kid and am happy he's showing out at UW. I take some pride in thinking his year here prepared him to really explode.

[azcat49]

You look at the team Miller assembled post FBI that included the key guys this year along with T Brown, the other Brown at ULL, Akinjo, J Baker, Lee and even Barcello and you just have to marvel at his eye for talent and his ability to shape a roster.

[RondaeShimmy]

[UAEebs86]

Is anybody going to mention that one of the reasons CSM had to go the international route was because of the BS allegation by ESPN that he paid Ayton? Well, that and "Look".

[RondaeShimmy]

You look at the team Miller assembled post FBI that included the key guys this year along with T Brown, the other Brown at ULL, Akinjo, J Baker, Lee and even Barcello and you just have to marvel at his eye for talent and his ability to shape a roster.

This season is a validation of his recruiting, invalidation of his coaching

[Beachcat97]

You look at the team Miller assembled post FBI that included the key guys this year along with T Brown, the other Brown at ULL, Akinjo, J Baker, Lee and even Barcello and you just have to marvel at his eye for talent and his ability to shape a roster.

This season is a validation of his recruiting, invalidation of his coaching

I'll continue to defend CSM's coaching record. At AZ (12 seasons), 300-109 overall, 150-68 in Pac, 3 Elite Eights, 5 Pac reg season titles, 3 Pac tourney titles. He was among the most dominant coaches in the country during his time at AZ.

[Spaceman Spiff]

You look at the team Miller assembled post FBI that included the key guys this year along with T Brown, the other Brown at ULL, Akinjo, J Baker, Lee and even Barcello and you just have to marvel at his eye for talent and his ability to shape a roster.

This season is a validation of his recruiting, invalidation of his coaching

Eh, disagreed. I tend to think you have to be a decent coach to set this many players up to improve.

Last year's Arizona players all moved into different systems and to a man, have grasped those systems, adapted and improved vs last year. To me, that's the marker of a solid coach, that he leaves players adaptable, skilled and ready.

There is zero learning process, whether at UW, Baylor or Arizona. You can't convince me that it's because Mike Hopkins and Tommy Lloyd are the best two coaches in the game.

[azcat49]

I think the way we play defense is directly attributable to Miller. If we win the natty, he should get a ring!

Big self proclaimed Miller fan here and can’t wait for him to be back in basketball, especially college

[Beachcat97]

Big self proclaimed Miller fan here and can’t wait for him to be back in basketball, especially college

Me too, and I'll probably shed a tear of joy for the guy if he actually gets to a FF somewhere.

[Chicat]

You look at the team Miller assembled post FBI that included the key guys this year along with T Brown, the other Brown at ULL, Akinjo, J Baker, Lee and even Barcello and you just have to marvel at his eye for talent and his ability to shape a roster.

This season is a validation of his recruiting, invalidation of his coaching

Is there a dimension in the multiverse where Sean Miller doesn’t have this team in the top-20 and top-2 in the PAC? Let’s not act like we’d have 6+ losses if CSM was still the coach. Obviously the team would look different style-wise but we’d still be very successful.

[azcat49]

Just me but in a strange anomaly I think the fans supported and embraced Miller more than they have Lloyd.

That could and should change with this years success but most fans knew no matter the situation, Miller would recruit us out of it

Plus most knew the ESPIN stuff was just BS. He got us back and that 2012 run with DWill and the spanking of Duke will ALWAYS be remembered

[Olsondogg]

Just me but in a strange anomaly I think the fans supported and embraced Miller more than they have Lloyd.

That could and should change with this years success but most fans knew no matter the situation, Miller would recruit us out of it

Plus most knew the ESPIN stuff was just BS. He got us back and that 2012 run with DWill and the spanking of Duke will ALWAYS be remembered

Dudes who frequently post here said they wouldn’t support the team until Bobby and Dave were gone. Just sayin.

[EastCoastCat]

I love and respect what CSM did during his time at Arizona. Period. Even if we win a Natty this year that won't change and I will always root for him. He gave his heart and soul to this program and never took for granted how important UofA basketball was and is.

He obviously handed CTL a ton of talent and if you listen to Lloyd this team was highly motivated to play and prove something this year. His biggest problem was keeping everyone from leaving, which I give him a ton of credit.

There was not going to be any drop off in terms of effort on defense and he saw he had a bunch of rim protectors too so the transition to his style of defense was easy.

And with our athleticism and Euro/International make-up his style of offense was also easy to implement once they bought into his "create the best shot as possible" philosophy.

It's almost like the perfect storm occurred this year.

[RawleArenas]

True dat. It seems that a lot of luck played into Lloyd's success this year. Although if you're a decent coach, it makes things even better.

I had doubts about Lloyd but he has slowly surprised me with each turn. I would have never had thought we'd be 21-2 with some of the best statistical numbers in the nation.

We'll see how recruiting shakes out. Hopefully he's able to make big strides recruiting out of the portal.

[Spaceman Spiff]

True dat. It seems that a lot of luck played into Lloyd's success this year. Although if you're a decent coach, it makes things even better.

I had doubts about Lloyd but he has slowly surprised me with each turn. I would have never had thought we'd be 21-2 with some of the best statistical numbers in the nation.

We'll see how recruiting shakes out. Hopefully he's able to make big strides recruiting out of the portal.

Recruiting with Lloyd is to be determined.

I was not at all sold on Lloyd, but he has handled this year's roster very well and better than I expected. I obviously liked Miller, but it's not him vs Lloyd. I see their relationship as symbiotic with regard this year's team, not competitive. Miller prepped this team well and Lloyd has coached it better than I imagined he would.

And 100% of my unhappiness with the coaching situation is with Robbins and Heeke. They did what they did. Lloyd took a job he was interested in.

[Postmaster]

I'd imagine CTL isn't happy with turnovers they can control, I.E. soft perimeter passing, bad entry passes, trying to make a highlight play. But they still play with a ridiculous amount of efficiency and their size is such an advantage on both sides.

And despite the turnovers, this the most points Wazzu has given up since they lost at Colorado in early January.

It’s those perimeter passes that drive me crazy

[Merkin]

Is there a dimension in the multiverse where Sean Miller doesn’t have this team in the top-20 and top-2 in the PAC? Let’s not act like we’d have 6+ losses if CSM was still the coach. Obviously the team would look different style-wise but we’d still be very successful.

Can you imagine if Brown or Akinjo stayed?